共查询到19条相似文献,搜索用时 62 毫秒
1.
潮流场永久预报方法及应用 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
修日晨 《山东海洋学院学报》1987,17(3):23-29
本方法的特点是以一个假想的引潮天体来代替月球和太阳的引潮作用.用该引潮天体星下点处的引潮力作为预报指标,对海区的整个潮流场进行计算与预报。在本方法中,把潮流场分为两种类型:把周日不等最弱的流场,称为Ⅰ型流场;把周日不等最强烈的流场,称为Ⅱ型流场。介于这两者之间的流场,则为过渡性的流场,流场的周期是与星下点处引潮力的周期相同。本方法已运用于渤海和北黄海.提供了该海区的表层流场永久预报图,并成功地进行过多次预报。 相似文献
2.
台风周围的天气系统和大气环流是瞬息万变的,特别是在台风穿过台湾岛时,受台湾岛地形的影响,其强度和移动路径常常会发生改变,易导致风暴潮预报的失败。本文基于"台湾海峡海洋环境立体实时监测系统"实时监测海上水文、气象要素的变化,准确分析判断了台风"凤凰"的移动路径,提高了临近台风风暴潮预警报的准确度,为地方决策部门安排重点设防风暴潮灾害提供了有力支持。 相似文献
3.
4.
台风“麦沙”登陆后减弱为热带风暴并从山东半岛西部进入渤海,造成8~9级阵风、10级的大风天气,天津沿海潮位超过警戒潮位46cm,海水漫过堤岸,形成风暴潮灾害。针对此次台风风暴潮,预报人员运用经验预报方法(相似型经验预报、统计模型预报)和数值模式(FBM模式)产品等多种手段,对天津沿海可能出现的潮位极值进行了试验预报。通过将上述几种方法实际运用于此次台风风暴潮预报,加深了对各种预报方法实用性和局限性的认识,对渤海台风风暴潮有了更清晰的了解,对改进各种方法,更好地释用数值预报产品起着积极的意义。 相似文献
5.
利用山东122个国家级地面气象观测站2017—2021年中1—3月和11—12月“24 h降雪量p≥10.0 mm”的暴雪实况资料,采用二分类法、邻域空间检验法(以下简称“邻域法”)、时间偏移法和量级模糊法等4种方法对山东暴雪预报进行检验与对比。结果表明:(1)山东暴雪具有明显的时空分布特征,暴雪主要出现在半岛北部地区,鲁东南和半岛南部产生暴雪的概率最小;暴雪出现次数的年际变化和月际变化较大,最多年份出现98次,最少年份仅有5次,2月是高发月,占全年暴雪总次数的38.5%。(2)现行业务中应用最广泛的二分类法检验的预报命中率较低,其中24 h预报命中率仅为12.08%,主要原因是该方法受到空间、时间和量级的多重影响,不能精细准确地反映预报能力。(3)邻域法、时间偏移法和量级模糊法对24 h的暴雪预报命中率分别为14.40%、14.69%和30.05%;相较于二分类法,这3种检验方法的预报命中率均有较大幅度提高,空报率和漏报率均有较大幅度下降。(4)融合邻域法、时间偏移法和量级模糊法的综合检验法,能从空间、时间和量级3个维度区分出预报差异,检验结果更加精细准确,有利于引导预报员放下“检验评分低”的思想包袱,做出更加科学客观的预报,进一步提升预报服务效果。 相似文献
6.
耗散结构热力学理论在一次海上大风预报中的应用 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
1988年3月13~15日在中国东部海域发生了一次历史上罕见的大风天气过程。本文首先对这次过程作了天气形势分析,然后分析了耗散结构热力学理论在大气中的表现形成,并给出了超熵产生的平流诊断方程,计算结果指出850hPa层超熵产生的负值区可提前12~24小时预示大风的发生。 相似文献
7.
8.
9.
本文把灰色系统灾变预报方法应用到风暴潮预报中,对逐年最大风暴潮增水资料确定一个阈值ξ,对于年最大风暴潮位资料大于阈值ξ的年份组成一个序列,用一阶线性模型GM(1,1)预报风暴潮灾的出现年份,结果表明:用GM(1,1)模型可较好地预报风暴潮灾的出现年份。 相似文献
10.
概率统计方法被引用到水文气象预报中来,至今已有五十余年。到60年代后期,统计预报已成为要素预报的重要手段,尤其是70年代以后“模式输出统计预报”在预报业务中使用以来,使统计预报出现了新的局面。现在水文、天气预报的概率统计方法已 相似文献
11.
12.
The HY-1A satellite is the first oceanic satellite of China. During the winter of 2002~2003, the data of the HY-1A were applied to the sea ice monitoring and forecasting for the Bohai Sea of China for the first time. The sea ice retrieval system of the HY-1A has been constructed. It receives 1B data from the satellite, outputs sea ice images and provides digital products of ice concentration, ice thickness and ice edge, which can be used as important information for sea ice monitoring and the initial fields of the numeric sea ice forecast and as one of the reference data for the sea ice forecasting verification. The sea ice retrieval system of the satellite is described, including its processes, methods and parameters. The retrieving results and their application to the sea ice monitoring and forecasting for the Bohai Sea are also discussed. 相似文献
13.
The HY-1A satellite is the first oceanic satellite of China. During the winter of 2002-2003, the data of the HY-1A were applied to the sea ice monitoring and forecasting for the Bohai Sea of China for the fhst time. The sea ice retrieval system of the HY-1A has been constructed. It receives 1B data from the satellite, outputs sea ice images and provides digital products of ice concentration, ice thickness and ice edge, which can be used as important information for sea ice monitoring and the initial fields of the numeric sea ice forecast and as one of the reference data for the sea ice forecasting verification. The sea ice retrieval system of the satellite is described, including its processes, methods and parameters. The retrieving results and their application to the sea ice monitoring and forecasting for the Bohai Sea are also discussed. 相似文献
14.
15.
16.
A typhoon-surge forecasting model was developed with a back-propagation neural network (BPN) in the present paper. The typhoon's characteristics, local meteorological conditions and typhoon surges at a considered tidal station at time t−1 and t were used as input data of the model to forecast typhoon surges at the following time. For the selection of a better forecasting model, four models (Models A–D) were tested and compared under the different composition of the above-mentioned input factors. A general evaluation index that is a composition of four performance indexes was proposed to evaluate the model's overall performance. The result of typhoon-surge forecasting was classified into five grades: A (excellent), B (good), C (fair), D (poor) and E (bad), according to the value of the general evaluation index. Sixteen typhoon events and their corresponding typhoon surges and local meteorological conditions at Ken–fang Tidal Station in the coast of north-eastern Taiwan between 1993 and 2000 were collected, 12 of them were used in model's calibration while the other four were used in model's verification. The analysis of typhoon-surge forecasting results at Ken–fang tidal station show that the Model D composing 18 input factors has better performance, and that it is a suitable BPN-based model in typhoon-surge forecasting. The Model D was also applied to typhoon-surge forecasting at Cheng-kung Tidal Station in south-eastern coast of Taiwan and at Tung-shih Tidal Station in the coast of south-western Taiwan. Results show that the application of Model D in typhoon-surge forecasting at Cheng-kung Tidal Station has better performance than that at Tung-shih Tidal Station. 相似文献
17.
为了准确地研判日本珍珠产业发展势态,科学地确立中国珍珠产业发展目标,有效地制定中国珍珠产业发展政策,采用EVIEWS5.0软件构建了指数平滑模型,并对日本2008~2015年的珍珠产量进行了预测,预测结果显示日本的珍珠产量持续下降,到2015年日本的珍珠产量达到12.35 t. 相似文献
18.
In this study,an operational forecasting system of sea dike risk in the southern Zhejiang Province,South China was developed based on a coupled storm-surge and wave model.This forecasting system is important because of the high cost of storm-surge damage and the need for rapid emergency planning.A comparison with astronomical tides in 2016 and the validation of storm surges and high water marks of 20 typhoons verified that the forecast system has a good simulation ability.The system can forecast relatively realistic water levels and wave heights as shown under the parametric atmospheric forces simulated in a case study;the sea dikes in credible high risk were mainly located in the estuaries,rivers,and around the islands in the southern Zhejiang.Therefore,the forecast system is applicable in the southern Zhejiang with a support to the effective prevention from typhoon storm-surge damage. 相似文献