Extreme value prediction via a quantile function model

Methods for estimating extreme loads are used in design as well as risk assessment. Regression using maximum likelihood or least squares estimation is widely used in a univariate analysis but these methods favour solutions that fit observations in an average sense. Here we describe a new technique for estimating extremes using a quantile function model. A quantile of a distribution is most commonly termed a ‘return level’ in flood risk analysis. The quantile function of a random variable is the inverse function of its distribution function. Quantile function models are different from the conventional regression models, because a quantile function model estimates the quantiles of a variable conditional on some other variables, while a regression model studies the conditional mean of a variable. So quantile function models allow us to study the whole conditional distribution of a variable via its quantile function, whereas conventional regression models represent the average behaviour of a variable.Little work can be found in the literature about prediction from a quantile function model. This paper proposes a prediction method for quantile function models. We also compare different types of statistical models using sea level observations from Venice. Our study shows that quantile function models can be used to estimate directly the relationships between sea condition variables, and also to predict critical quantiles of a sea condition variable conditional on others. Our results show that the proposed quantile function model and the developed prediction method have the potential to be very useful in practice.     

Variability modes of sea level in the Sea of Japan

Variability of sea level in the Sea of Japan is studied using multivariate analysis of weekly altimetry fields spanning from October 1992 through October 2009. Interacting (non-orthogonal) modes of variability are revealed on seasonal time scale, representing synchronous oscillations in the entire Sea and meridional sea level gradient, respectively. The highest sea level and sharpest gradient occur in October and the strongest opposite phase occurs in March. Intra-seasonal and quasi-biennial synchronous oscillations also occur. The fluctuations of the level gradients are not statistically significant on these time scales. The 180-degree-out-of-phase oscillations occur in the western and eastern parts of the Sea on semiannual, annual, quasi-biennial, and longer interannual time scales, manifesting substantial changes in the regional circulation patterns. No secular trends related to the revealed modes were detected.     

Inter-model variability of projected sea level changes in the western North Pacific in CMIP3 coupled climate models

We investigate sea level changes in the western North Pacific for twenty-first century climate projections by analyzing the output from 15 coupled models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3). Projected changes in the wind stress due to those in sea level pressure (SLP) result in the projected sea level changes. In the western North Pacific (30?50°N, 145?170°E), the inter-model standard deviation of the sea level change relative to the global mean is comparable to that based on the multi-model ensemble (MME) mean. Whereas a positive SLP change in the eastern North Pacific (40?50°N, 170?150°W) induces a large northward shift of the Kuroshio Extension (KE), a negative SLP change in this region induces a strong intensification of the KE. Large inter-model variability of the SLP projection in the eastern North Pacific causes a large uncertainty of the sea level projection in the western North Pacific. Models with a larger northward shift (intensification) of the KE exhibit a poleward shift (an intensification) of the Aleutian Low (AL) larger than that for the MME mean. However, models that exhibit a larger intensification of the AL do not necessarily show a larger intensification of the KE. Our analysis suggests that the SLP change that induces an intensification of the KE is associated with a teleconnection from the equatorial Pacific, and that the SLP change that induces a northward shift of the KE is characterized by a zonal mean change.     

Shifts in multi-decadal sea level trends in the East/Japan Sea over the past 60 years

Data derived from altimetry shows that since 1993 the mean sea level over the East /Japan (EJS) Sea is increasing at a rate of ~3 mm/year, but tide gauge records indicate that a multidecadal reversal trend occurred prior to the early 1980s. We here characterize and quantify the multi-decadal trend of mean sea level in the EJS from the reconstructed sea levels and the in-situ ocean profiles over the past 60 years. Our analysis shows that sea level trends have undergone a shift, revealing a declining trend before the early 1980s, followed by a rising trend from the early 1980s onward with a near basin-wide sea level fluctuation. The trend reversal strongly corresponds to changes in the upper-ocean heat content over the EJS, revealing a negative correlation with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index that correlates negatively with wind stress curl (WSC) in the subtropical North Pacific. The PDO-related WSC, which changes the transport of the western boundary current in the subtropical gyre, may account for the observed trend reversal in the EJS sea level on a multi-decadal time scale.     

ENSO variability and the eastern tropical Pacific: A review

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) encompasses variability in both the eastern and western tropical Pacific. During the warm phase of ENSO, the eastern tropical Pacific is characterized by equatorial positive sea surface temperature (SST) and negative sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies, while the western tropical Pacific is marked by off-equatorial negative SST and positive SLP anomalies. Corresponding to this distribution are equatorial westerly wind anomalies in the central Pacific and equatorial easterly wind anomalies in the far western Pacific. Occurrence of ENSO has been explained as either a self-sustained, naturally oscillatory mode of the coupled ocean–atmosphere system or a stable mode triggered by stochastic forcing. Whatever the case, ENSO involves the positive ocean–atmosphere feedback hypothesized by Bjerknes. After an El Niño reaches its mature phase, negative feedbacks are required to terminate growth of the mature El Niño anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific. Four requisite negative feedbacks have been proposed: reflected Kelvin waves at the ocean western boundary, a discharge process due to Sverdrup transport, western Pacific wind-forced Kelvin waves, and anomalous zonal advections. These negative feedbacks may work together for terminating El Niño, with their relative importance being time-dependent.ENSO variability is most pronounced along the equator and the coast of Ecuador and Peru. However, the eastern tropical Pacific also includes a warm pool north of the equator where important variability occurs. Seasonally, ocean advection seems to play an important role for SST variations of the eastern Pacific warm pool. Interannual variability in the eastern Pacific warm pool may be largely due to a direct oceanic connection with the ENSO variability at the equator. Variations in temperature, stratification, insolation, and productivity associated with ENSO have implications for phytoplankton productivity and for fish, birds, and other organisms in the region. Long-term changes in ENSO variability may be occurring and are briefly discussed. This paper is part of a comprehensive review of the oceanography of the eastern tropical Pacific.     

The East Caledonian Current: A Case Example for the Intercomparison between AltiKa and In Situ Measurements in a Boundary Current

This paper presents an assessment of SARAL/AltiKa satellite altimeter for the monitoring of a tropical western boundary current in the south-western Pacific Ocean: the East Caledonian Current. We compare surface geostrophic current estimates obtained from two versions of AltiKa along-track sea level height (AVISO 1 Hz and PEACHI 40 Hz) with two kinds of dedicated in situ datasets harvested along the satellite ground tracks: one deep-ocean current-meter mooring deployed in the core of the boundary current and five glider transects. It is concluded that the AltiKa-derived current successfully captures the velocity of the boundary current, with a standard error of 11 cm/s with respect to the in situ data. It also appears important to reference AltiKa sea level anomaly to the latest mean dynamic topography available in our area. Doing so, Ka-band altimetry provides a satisfactory representation of the western boundary current. Thereby, it usefully contributes to observing its variability in such a remote and under-observed ocean region. However, the rather long repeat period of SARAL (35 days) in comparison to the high frequency variability seen in the flow velocity of the boundary current calls for a combined use of SARAL with the other satellite altimetry missions.     

Changing extreme sea levels along European coasts

Extreme sea levels at European coasts and their changes over the twentieth and twenty-first centuries are considered, including a method to analyze extreme sea levels and to assess their changes in a consistent way at different sites. The approach is based on using a combination of statistical tools and dynamical modelling as well as observational data and scenarios for potential future developments. The analysis is made for both time series of extreme sea levels and individually for the different components contributing to the extremes comprising (i) mean sea level changes, (ii) wind waves and storm surges and (iii), for relevant places, river flows. It is found that while regionally results vary in detail, some general inferences can be obtained. In particular it is found, that extreme sea levels show pronounced short-term and long-term variability partly associated with seasonal and nodal tidal cycles. Long-term trends are mostly associated with corresponding mean sea level changes while changes in wave and storm surge climate mostly contribute to inter-annual and decadal variability, but do not show substantial long-term trends. It is expected that this situation will continue for the upcoming decades and that long-term variability dominates over long-term trends at least for the coming decades.     

Long-term sea-level variability in the eastern South Atlantic and a comparison with that in the eastern Pacific

The data set of pressure-corrected monthly mean sea level from sites on the coast of the eastern South Atlantic Ocean has now been extended to cover the years from 1959 to 1985. The length of this data set is now comparable to those used in studies of long-term variability in sea level in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Comparison of the data sets reveals a qualitative agreement in the character of the variability in sea level between the two oceans. In particular, the possibility of high sea-level events propagating polewards from the equatorial Atlantic in the manner of the Pacific El Niño is explored and confirmed. The sea-level record, supported by evidence from published studies of variability in sea surface temperature, shows that the years 1963, 1974 and 1984 should be considered to be years of anomalously high sea level along the entire eastern South Atlantic Ocean.     

赤道太平洋-印度洋海温异常综合模与次表层海温异常

通过对1958-2001年的SODA海温资料进行经验正交函数分解,得到了太平洋-印度洋海温异常综合模态,该模态在海表及次表层的时空演变特征的分析表明,在赤道西印度洋、中东太平洋的海温偏高(低)时,赤道西太平洋、东印度洋的海温偏低(高)。该综合模态既有年际变化特征,还有年代际变化特征,在20世纪70年代中后期由以负指数为主转变为以正指数为主。对1958-2001年强正、负指数事件合成分析结果得知,综合模也存在着显著的年变化特征,在2-4月份偏弱,最强出现在10月份。西太平洋暖池次表层与赤道东太平洋次表层、赤道东印度洋次表层与西印度洋次表层有一种反位相的变化。次表层海温异常在东太平洋、西印度洋分别沿着南北纬10°左右向西太平洋、东印度洋传播并向赤道扩展,西太平洋、东印度洋的次表层海温异常则分别沿赤道向东太平洋、西印度洋传播汇聚。     

热带太平洋海平面低频变化

本文选取ECMWF ORAS4再分析数据对1959-2015年热带太平洋海平面的低频变化进行了分析。热带太平洋海平面年际变化第一模态反映了ENSO爆发阶段的海平面变化,热带东、西太平洋变化反相,其时间序列与Niño3.4指数高度相关。海平面第二模态则体现了El Niño爆发前后热带太平洋暖水的输运过程。El Niño爆发前热带西太平洋暖水聚集的位置,以及爆发后暖水向赤道外输运的位置在两类El Niño事件中均有所不同。此外,ENSO的周期在近半个世纪发生了显著的年代际变化,这一变化与热带太平洋的年代际变化有关。热带太平洋的年代际变化对海平面趋势变化也有着显著的影响。卫星高度计观测到的近20年海平面的快速上升（下降）正是由20世纪90年代后热带太平洋频繁的位相转换引起的。     

Sea level variation in the eastern Asia

Mean sea level variations in the eastern Asia region during 1950 to 1991 are investigated with the use of observed sea level data at 16 stations. It is suggested from the data analysis, that the main cause of long-term sea level variation in this region may be the plate tectonic processes. The mean sea levels along the eastern coasts of Japan and the Philippines, and that along the southern coast of Indonesia have risen due to the subsidence of Pacific, Philippine and Australian plates under the Eurasian plate, respectively. On the other hand, the mean sea levels along the western coasts of Japan and the Philippines, and that along the northern coast of Indonesia have fallen. The distribution map of mean sea level rise at the year 2030 from 1985 in this region is presented on the basis of the results of this work and IPCC (1990).     

Estimates of the mutual influence of variations in the sea surface temperature in tropical latitudes of the Pacific,Atlantic, and Indian Oceans from long-period data series

Based on the concept of the Wiener&–Granger causality, a seasonal trivariate analysis of directional couplings between sea surface temperature variations in tropical latitudes of the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans has been performed. These variations are related to significant modes of regional and global climatic variability. We have analyzed time series of monthly indices of Pacific Ocean processes of the El Ni&ño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), equatorial Atlantic mode (EAM), and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)&—along with its western and eastern poles for the period of 1870&–2015. A scheme of interactions between the processes under study where coupling strength estimates are presented, along with estimates of the season of its maximal value and the coupling coefficient sign, has been developed. We have found the seasonal influences of ENSO on the western and eastern poles of IOD, the eastern pole of IOD on ENSO, EAM on ENSO, and IOD on EAM to be the most significant couplings.     

Experiments in reconstructing twentieth-century sea levels

One approach to reconstructing historical sea level from the relatively sparse tide-gauge network is to employ Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) as interpolatory spatial basis functions. The EOFs are determined from independent global data, generally sea-surface heights from either satellite altimetry or a numerical ocean model. The problem is revisited here for sea level since 1900. A new approach to handling the tide-gauge datum problem by direct solution offers possible advantages over the method of integrating sea-level differences, with the potential of eventually adjusting datums into the global terrestrial reference frame. The resulting time series of global mean sea levels appears fairly insensitive to the adopted set of EOFs. In contrast, charts of regional sea level anomalies and trends are very sensitive to the adopted set of EOFs, especially for the sparser network of gauges in the early 20th century. The reconstructions appear especially suspect before 1950 in the tropical Pacific. While this limits some applications of the sea-level reconstructions, the sensitivity does appear adequately captured by formal uncertainties. All our solutions show regional trends over the past five decades to be fairly uniform throughout the global ocean, in contrast to trends observed over the shorter altimeter era. Consistent with several previous estimates, the global sea-level rise since 1900 is 1.70 ± 0.26 mm yr⁻¹. The global trend since 1995 exceeds 3 mm yr⁻¹ which is consistent with altimeter measurements, but this large trend was possibly also reached between 1935 and 1950.     

Using satellite altimetry to correct mean temperature and salinity fields derived from Argo floats in the ocean regions around Australia

We present results from a suite of methods using in situ temperature and salinity data, and satellite altimetric observations to obtain an enhanced set of mean fields of temperature, salinity (down to 2000-m depth) and steric height (0/2000 m) for a time-specific period (1992–2007). Firstly, the improved global sampling resulting from the introduction of the Argo program, enables a representative determination of the large-scale mean oceanic structure. However, shortcomings in the coverage remain. High variability western boundary current eddy fields, continental slope and shelf boundaries may all be below their optimal sampling requirements. We describe a simple method to supplement and improve standard spatial interpolation schemes and apply them to the available data within the waters surrounding Australia (100°E–180°W; 50°S–10°N). This region includes a major current system, the East Australian Current (EAC), complex topography, unique boundary currents such as the Leeuwin Current, and large ENSO related interannual variability in the southwest Pacific. We use satellite altimetry sea level anomalies (SLA) to directly correct sampling errors in in situ derived mean surface steric height and subsurface temperature and salinity fields. The surface correction is projected through the water column (using an empirical model) to modify the mean subsurface temperature and salinity fields. The errors inherent in all these calculations are examined. The spatial distribution of the barotropic–baroclinic balance is obtained for the region and a ‘baroclinic factor’ to convert the altimetry SLA into an equivalent in situ height is determined. The mean fields in the EAC region are compared with independent estimates on repeated XBT sections, a mooring array and full-depth CTD transects.     

多源数据推求的西太平洋区域海面动力地形比较分析

简述利用空间大地测量观测数据和海洋水文数据推求海面动力地形的方法。基于EGM96重力场模型和卫星重力恢复的重力场模型GL04C,联合卫星测高平均海面高模型分别推算西太平洋海域的平均海面动力地形,并与根据海洋水文数据推算之结果进行比较分析。结果表明:卫星重力场模型GL04C更好地表现了海面地形的细节特征。卫星重力和卫星测高的联合应用将成为确定海面动力地形的有效途径之一。     

热带西北太平洋0~300 m热含量的年代际变化

太平洋是海表温度年际变化和年代际变化发生的主要区域,但对太平洋海洋热含量变化的研究相对较少。为此, 本文分析了1980—2020年太平洋上层(0~300 m)热含量的时空变化特征。基于IAP数据,本文首先利用集合经验模态分解法(EEMD)提取不同时间尺度的海洋热含量信号,并利用正交经验分解法(EOF)对不同时间尺度的海洋热含量进行时空特征分析,得到了太平洋0~300 m海洋热含量的年际变化、年代际变化以及长期变暖的时空特征。结果表明,除了年际变化之外,热带西北太平洋上层热含量还存在明显的年代际变化和长期变暖趋势。在东太平洋和高纬度西太平洋,热含量的年代际变化特征并不突出。热带西北太平洋热含量的年代际变化在1980—1988年和1999—2013年较高,而在1989—1998年和2014—2020年期间较低。此外,针对热带西北太平洋热含量的经向、纬向和垂向特征分析,发现这种年代际变化主要发生在5°N—20°N,120°E—180°E,次表层50~200 m范围内。热带西北太平洋热含量的年代际变化对全球海表温度的年代际变化有着重要作用。     

ENSO循环过程中次表层海洋信号的传播和变化

利用SODA等资料分析了热带太平洋次表层海洋要素的变化特征,结果表明,ENSO循环过程中次表层异常海温信号在赤道外向西传播的路径与温跃层深度的分布有一定关系,10oN附近是气候平均温跃层深度的极小值区域,温跃层在该区域形成了一个从东到西的阻隔带,阻挡了来自赤道地区的ENSO信号继续向北传播,从而转向西传播;而南半球温跃层深度的气候分布不具备这一特征,不利于ENSO信号在南半球的向西传播。进一步的研究还表明,ENSO信号在整个循环过程中,异常海温的主周期是变化的,特别是在沿10oN附近向西传播的过程中,ENSO信号的主周期变化较大。推断西太平洋暖池区域的ENSO信号除了在循环过程中自东太平洋10oN传来的以外,还受其他因素的影响,例如局地的大气变化引起的海温异常,以及来自中高纬度的异常海温信号等因素。     

Les surcotes et les décotes marines à Brest, étude statistique et évolution

Sea surges (positive or negative) are short-period events (several hours to several days) among the most extreme oceanic phenomena resulting from climatic variability. A statistical study of hourly tide-gauge records at Brest does not allow any clear trend in long-term variations of these extreme sea levels to be detected. However, the frequency of extreme positive sea surges has increased recently (1953–1994), whereas extreme and sub-extreme negative sea surges has decreased. Such trends for the highest values strengthen the prevalence of positive sea surges over negative ones. The general evolution appears to be organised around several time scales, with a strong interannual variability superimposed on periods of amplification or regression of decennial order.