Data assimilation with the ensemble Kalman filter in a numerical model of the North Sea

Coastal management and maritime safety strongly rely on accurate representations of the sea state. Both dynamical models and observations provide abundant pieces of information. However, none of them provides the complete picture. The assimilation of observations into models is one way to improve our knowledge of the ocean state. Its application in coastal models remains challenging because of the wide range of temporal and spatial variabilities of the processes involved. This study investigates the assimilation of temperature profiles with the ensemble Kalman filter in 3-D North Sea simulations. The model error is represented by the standard deviation of an ensemble of model states. Parameters’ values for the ensemble generation are first computed from the misfit between the data and the model results without assimilation. Then, two square root algorithms are applied to assimilate the data. The impact of data assimilation on the simulated temperature is assessed. Results show that the ensemble Kalman filter is adequate for improving temperature forecasts in coastal areas, under adequate model error specification.     

Mean and eddy motion in the Skagerrak/northern North Sea: insight from a numerical model

Insight regarding the mean and eddy motion in the Skagerrak/northern North Sea area is gained through an analysis of model-simulated currents, hydrography, kinetic energy and relative vorticity for the 2 years 2000 and 2001. In this a -coordinate ocean model is used. Since the tidal currents are generally strong in the area, care is exercised to distinguish the mesoscale (eddy) motion from higher-frequency motion such as tides, before computing the mean and eddy kinetic energy. The model-simulated response is first compared with available knowledge of the circulation in the area, and when available, also with sea-surface temperature obtained from satellite imagery. It is concluded that the model appears to faithfully reproduce most of what is known, in particularly the upper mixed layer circulation. An analysis of the mean and eddy kinetic energy reveals that many of the mesoscale structures found in the area are recurrent. This is particularly true for the structures off the southern tip of Norway. Also in general, areas of strong mean and eddy kinetic energy are co-located. The exception is the area off the southern tip of Norway, where the eddy kinetic energy is much larger than its mean counterpart. An analysis of the relative vorticity reveals that the variability found is due to the occurrence of recurrent anticyclonic eddies. It is hypothesized that these eddies are generated due to an offshore veering of the Norwegian coastal current (NCC) as it reaches the eastern end of the Norwegian Trench plateau. Here it becomes a free jet, which is then vulnerable to either barotropic instability caused by the horizontal shear in the jet-like structure of the NCC at this point, or a baroclinic (frontal) instability. The latter may come into play when the NCC veers offshore and its relatively fresh water meets the inflowing saline water of Atlantic origin, a frontogenesis that may become strong enough for cyclogenesis to take place. Due to the depth-independent nature of the model-generated eddies, the barotropic instability is the most likely candidate. It remains to resolve the reason for the offshore veering of the NCC. The most likely candidate mechanisms are vortex squeezing or simply that the coastline curvature is large enough for the NCC to separate from the coast in a hydraulic sense.Responsible Editor: Phil Dyke     

Data assimilation with the EnKF in a 1-D numerical model of a North Sea station

A series of numerical experiments for data assimilation with the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) in a shallow water model are reported. Temperature profiles measured at a North Sea location, 55°30ˊ North and 0°55ˊ East (referred to as the CS station of the NERC North Sea project), are assimilated in 1-D simulations. Comparison of simulations without assimilation to model results obtained when assimilating data with the EnKF allows us to assess the filter performance in reproducing features of the observations not accounted for by the model. The quality of the model error sampling is tested as well as the validity of the Gaussian hypothesis underlying the analysis scheme of the EnKF. The influence of the model error parameters and the frequency of the data assimilation are investigated and discussed. From these experiments, a set of optimal parameters for the model error sampling are deduced and used to test the behavior of the EnKF when propagating surface information into the water column.     

The vertical mixing induced by winds and tides over the Yellow Sea in summer: a numerical study in 2012

Ocean Dynamics - In the Yellow Sea (YS), besides the energetic tidal forcing, winds also induce strong vertical mixing, especially in the summer season when the thermocline is well developed. The...     

Combined model state and parameter estimation with an ensemble Kalman filter in a North Sea station 1-D numerical model

The combined estimation of model state and parameters is investigated by using an ensemble Kalman filter in a 1-D numerical study of the temperature profile at a North Sea station located at 55°30??North and 0°55??East. This simplified model implementation allows to test many configurations for the sampling of the model error for the model state as well as for the parameters. Temperature profiles from thermistor data are assimilated. The influence of a vertically or non-vertically correlated model error is examined through the computation of correlation coefficients, root mean square errors, and model bias. As the CS station is located in the North Sea region stratified in summer, vertically non-correlated model error terms have a slight positive impact on the assimilative runs. The benefit of the combined estimation of the model state and parameters is examined by comparison of a simulation where the model parameters are not adjusted to simulations with the combined estimation of the model state either with one parameter or with a set of parameters related to the surface heat exchange. The optical attenuation coefficient, the sensible, and latent heat exchange coefficients are considered. The best results are obtained when a set of parameters are simultaneously adjusted.     

Turbulent mixing in a rotating,stratified fluid

Abstract

An experimental study was carried out to investigate the effect of rotation on turbulent mixing in a stratified fluid when the turbulence in the mixed layer is generated by an oscillating grid. Two types of experiments were carried out: one of them is concerned with the deepening of the upper mixed layer in a stable, two-fluid system, and the other deals with the interaction between a stabilizing buoyancy flux and turbulence.

In the first type of experiments, it was found that rotation suppresses entrainment at larger Rossby numbers. As the Rossby number becomes smaller (Ro 0.1), the entrainment rate increases with rotation—the onset of this phenomenon, however, was found to coincide with the appearance of coherent vortices within the mixed layer. The radiation of energy from the mixed layer to the lower non-turbulent layer was found to occur and the magnitude of the energy flux was found to be increased with the rotational frequency. It was also observed that vortices are generated, rather abruptly, in the lower layer as the mixed layer deepens.

In the second set of experiments a quasi-steady mixed layer was found to develop of which the thickness varies with rotation in a fashion that is consistent with the result of the first experiment. Also the rotation was found to delay the formation of a pycnocline.     

Particle tracking in the vicinity of Helgoland,North Sea: a model comparison

Station Helgoland Roads in the south-eastern North Sea (German Bight) hosts one of the richest long-term time series of marine observations. Hydrodynamic transport simulations can help understand variability in the local data brought about by intermittent changes of water masses. The objective of our study is to estimate to which extent the outcome of such transport simulations depends on the choice of a specific hydrodynamic model. Our basic experiment consists of 3,377 Lagrangian simulations in time-reversed mode initialized every 7 h within the period Feb 2002–Oct 2004. Fifty-day backward simulations were performed based on hourly current fields from four different hydrodynamic models that are all well established but differ with regard to spatial resolution, dimensionality (2D or 3D), the origin of atmospheric forcing data, treatment of boundary conditions, presence or absence of baroclinic terms, and the numerical scheme. The particle-tracking algorithm is 2D; fields from 3D models were averaged vertically. Drift simulations were evaluated quantitatively in terms of the fraction of released particles that crossed each cell of a network of receptor regions centred at the island of Helgoland. We found substantial systematic differences between drift simulations based on each of the four hydrodynamic models. Sensitivity studies with regard to spatial resolution and the effects of baroclinic processes suggest that differences in model output cannot unambiguously be assigned to certain model properties or restrictions. Therefore, multi-model simulations are needed for a proper identification of uncertainties in long-term Lagrangian drift simulations.     

Experiments with a numerical model of coastal currents and tidal mixing fronts

A three-dimensional numerical model is used to simulate the development of disturbances on shelf-sea coastal currents and fronts. The model, which has a free surface, uses a finite difference grid ☐ scheme based on sigma coordinates. It has a semi-implicit scheme for the barotropic flow and a hydrid advection scheme to retain sharp fronts. The results demonstrate that (i) eddy formation follows changes at the inflow of a coastal current, (ii) a simple radiation boundary condition at the outflow produces nearly identical results for different outflow boundary positions, (iii) eddy growth, with matching behaviour of surface and bottom fronts, follows a small displacement on a tidal mixing front and (iv) effects of friction and mixing can significantly alter the behaviour of the front and the relative strength of the cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies formed.     

Drill cutting accumulations in the Northern and Central North Sea: a review of environmental interactions and chemical fate

The exploration and production of North Sea oil and gas reserves has resulted in the accumulation of large quantities of drill cuttings on the seabed surrounding drill sites. This complex mixture of man-made and natural substances contains higher concentrations of certain metals (Ba, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn) and hydrocarbons than are observed in background sediments. With decommissioning of older platforms underway, an evaluation of the environmental interactions and chemical fate of the drill cuttings accumulations is required.This review concentrates on contaminants within drill cutting accumulations in the Northern and Central North Sea (56 degrees N-62 degrees N). Present literature reviewed reveals that hydrocarbons within the cuttings piles remain relatively unchanged with time. A considerable proportion of the associated contaminants are likely to remain within the cuttings pile unless they are disturbed which will then increase exchanges of porewater and solids back to the seabed surface resulting in pathways of exposure for organisms.     

Effects of wave-induced forcing on a circulation model of the North Sea

The effect of wind waves on water level and currents during two storms in the North Sea is investigated using a high-resolution Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) model forced with fluxes and fields from a high-resolution wave model. The additional terms accounting for wave-current interaction that are considered in this study are the Stokes-Coriolis force, the sea-state-dependent energy and momentum fluxes. The individual and collective role of these processes is quantified and the results are compared with a control run without wave effects as well as against current and water-level measurements from coastal stations. We find a better agreement with observations when the circulation model is forced by sea-state-dependent fluxes, especially in extreme events. The two extreme events, the storm Christian (25–27 October 2013), and about a month later, the storm Xaver (5–7 December 2013), induce different wave and surge conditions over the North Sea. Including the wave effects in the circulation model for the storm Xaver raises the modelled surge by more than 40 cm compared with the control run in the German Bight area. For the storm Christian, a difference of 20–30 cm in the surge level between the wave-forced and the stand-alone ocean model is found over the whole southern part of the North Sea. Moreover, the modelled vertical velocity profile fits the observations very well when the wave forcing is accounted for. The contribution of wave-induced forcing has been quantified indicating that this represents an important mechanism for improving water-level and current predictions.     

Shelf-basin exchange in the Laptev Sea in the warming climate: a model study

GCM-based forecast simulations predict continuously increasing seasonality of the sea ice cover and an almost ice-free, summer-time, Arctic Ocean within several decades from the present. In this study we use a primitive equation ocean model: NEMO, coupled with the sea ice model LIM2, to test the hypothesis that under such an increased range in seasonal ice cover the intensity of shelf-basin water exchange will significantly increase. We use the simulated results for the Laptev Sea from a global model run 1958–2007 and compare results for two years with anomalously high and low summer sea ice extents: 1986–1987 and 2006–2007. The shelf–basin fluxes of volume, heat and salt during specific seasons are evaluated and attributed to plausible driving processes, with particular attention to dense water cascading. Analyses of the model temperature distribution at the depth of the intermediate maximum, associated with Atlantic Water, have shown a marked increase of the amount of the local origin cold water in late winter 2007 in the region, where dense water typically appears as a result of its formation on the shelf and subsequent downslope leakage. Calculation of the shelf-basin exchange during March-May in both years confirmed a substantial increase (a factor of two) of fluxes in “ice-free” 2007 compared to the “icy” 1987. According to several past model studies, dense water production on Arctic shelves in winter driven by ice freezing and brine rejection is not likely to cease in a warmer climate, but rather to increase. There is also observational evidence that cascading in the seasonally ice covered seas (e.g. the Barents Sea) is much more efficient than it is in the permanently ice covered Arctic Ocean, which supports these model results.     

Comparison of numerical hindcasted severe waves with Doppler radar measurements in the North Sea

Severe sea states in the North Sea present a challenge to wave forecasting systems and a threat to offshore installations such as oil and gas platforms and offshore wind farms. Here, we study the ability of a third-generation spectral wave model to reproduce winter sea states in the North Sea. Measured and modeled time series of integral wave parameters and directional wave spectra are compared for a 12-day period in the winter of 2013–2014 when successive severe storms moved across the North Atlantic and the North Sea. Records were obtained from a Doppler radar and wave buoys. The hindcast was performed with the WAVEWATCH III model (Tolman 2014) with high spectral resolution both in frequency and direction. A good general agreement was obtained for integrated parameters, but discrepancies were found to occur in spectral shapes.     

Nitrogen and carbon cycling in the North Sea and exchange with the North Atlantic—A model study,Part II: Carbon budget and fluxes

The 3-d coupled physical–biogeochemical model ECOHAM (version 3) was applied to the Northwest-European Shelf (47°41′–63°53′N, 15°5′W–13°55′E) for the years 1993–1996. Carbon fluxes were calculated for the years 1995 and 1996 for the inner shelf region, the North Sea (511,725 km²). This period was chosen because it corresponds to a shift from a very high winter-time North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) in 1994/1995, to an extremely low one in 1995/1996, with consequences for the North Sea physics and biogeochemistry. During the first half of 1996, the observed mean SST was about 1 °C lower than in 1995; in the southern part of the North Sea the difference was even larger (up to 3 °C). Due to a different wind regime, the normally prevailing anti-clockwise circulation, as found in winter 1995, was replaced by more complicated circulation patterns in winter 1996. Decreased precipitation over the drainage area of the continental rivers led to a reduction in the total (inorganic and organic) riverine carbon load to the North Sea from 476 Gmol C yr⁻¹ in 1995 to 340 Gmol C yr⁻¹ in 1996. In addition, the North Sea took up 503 Gmol C yr⁻¹ of CO₂ from the atmosphere. According to our calculations, the North Sea was a sink for atmospheric CO₂, at a rate of 0.98 mol C m⁻² yr⁻¹, for both years. The North Sea is divided into two sub-systems: the shallow southern North Sea (SNS; 190,765 km²) and the deeper northern North Sea (NNS; 320,960 km²). According to our findings the SNS is a net-autotrophic system (net ecosystem production NEP>0) but released CO₂ to the atmosphere: 159 Gmol C yr⁻¹ in 1995 and 59 Gmol C yr⁻¹ in 1996. There, the temperature-driven release of CO₂ outcompetes the biological CO₂ drawdown. In the NNS, where respiratory processes prevail (NEP<0), 662 and 562 Gmol C yr⁻¹ were taken up from the atmosphere in 1995 and 1996, respectively. Stratification separates the productive, upper layer from the deeper layers of the water column where respiration/remineralization takes place. Duration and stability of the stratification are determined by the meteorological conditions, in relation to the NAO. Our results suggest that this mechanism controlling the nutrient supply to the upper layer in the northern and central North Sea has a larger impact on the carbon fluxes than changes in lateral transport due to NAOI variations. The North Sea as a whole imports organic carbon and exports inorganic carbon across the outer boundaries, and was found to be net-heterotrophic, more markedly in 1996 than in 1995.     

Sediments and pollution in the Northern Adriatic Sea: a statistical analysis

Data concerning grain-size distribution, mineralogy, geochemistry, and chlorinated hydrocarbon concentrations, obtained from 246 surface sediment samples collected in the Northern Adriatic sea (Italian area), provide the basis for a multivariate statistical analysis which evaluates the influence of riverine inputs, the differences among various depositional environments and the presence of polluted zones.Cluster analysis applied to grain size has identified nine groups of lithotypes associated with the morphology and the hydrology of the basin.In the Gulf of Venice, principal component analysis on clay minerals and carbonates has permitted recognition of two main areas located north and south of the Brenta river. More subareas correspond to other lithological types.Principal component analysis of nine metal (Hg, Cd, Cu, Pb, Cr, Zn, Fe, Ni, and Co) concentrations reveals that the studied sea area is more complex from the geochemical point of view. Three geochemical zones related to riverine inputs, different lithotypes and specific forms of contamination are identified. High pollution of both halocarbons and heavy metals is associated with fine grain size.