Relationship between Natural Climate Variability and Equilibrium Sensitivity in the Climate Model of the Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences to Increasing СО2

Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - The amplitude of natural climate variability is considered in several versions of the Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences...     

Effect of including land-use driven radiative forcing of the surface albedo of land on climate response in the 16th–21st centuries

A change in ecosystem types, such as through natural-vegetation-agriculture conversion, alters the surface albedo and triggers attendant shortwave radiative forcing (RF). This paper describes numerical experiments performed using the climate model (CM) of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Russian Academy of Sciences, for the 16th–21st centuries; this model simulated the response to a change in the contents of greenhouse gases (tropospheric and stratospheric), sulfate aerosols, solar constant, as well as the response to change in surface albedo of land due to natural-vegetation-agriculture conversion. These forcing estimates relied on actual data until the late 20th century. In the 21st century, the agricultural area was specified according to scenarios of the Land Use Harmonization project and other anthropogenic impacts were specified using SRES scenarios. The change in the surface vegetation during conversion from natural vegetation to agriculture triggers a cooling RF in most regions except for those of natural semiarid vegetation. The global and annual average RF derived from the IAP RAS CM in late 20th century is ?0.11 W m^?2. Including the land-use driven RF in IAP RAS CM appreciably reconciled the model calculations to observations in this historical period. For instance, in addition to the net climate warming, IAP RAS CM predicted an annually average cooling and reduction in precipitation in the subtropics of Eurasia and North America and in Amazonia and central Africa, as well as a local maximum in annually average and summertime warming in East China. The land-use driven RF alters the sign in the dependence that the amplitude of the annual cycle of the near-surface atmospheric temperature has on the annually averaged temperature. One reason for the decrease in precipitation as a result of a change in albedo due to land use may be the suppression of the convective activity in the atmosphere in the warm period (throughout the year in the tropics) and the corresponding decrease in convective precipitation. In the 21st century, the effect that the land-use driven RF has on the climate response for scenarios of anthropogenic impact is generally small.     

Modern Horizontal Movements in the Zones of Strong and Moderate Earthquakes of the Early 21st Century in the Central Sector of the Greater Caucasus: Characteristics Inferred from GPS Observations and Connection with Neotectonics and Deep Structure of the Earth’s Crust

Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - Analysis of GPS-measurements made for the first time along the geodesic profile crossing all the main geological structures in the Ossetian region of...     

Changes in Forest Ecosystem Disturbances in the Forest–Steppe Zone of Russia’s Central Chernozem Region in the Late 20th and Early 21st Century

Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - Results are presented from assessing forest ecosystem disturbances in the forest–steppe zone of Russia’s Central Chernozem region in the...