Temporal and spatial variability of annual and seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia

Abstract

Characterization of the seasonal and inter-annual spatial and temporal variability of rainfall in a changing climate is vital to assess climate-induced changes and suggest adequate future water resources management strategies. Trends in annual, seasonal and maximum 30-day extreme rainfall over Ethiopia are investigated using 0.5° latitude?×?0.5° longitude gridded monthly precipitation data. The spatial coherence of annual rainfall among contiguous rainfall grid points is also assessed for possible spatial similarity across the country. The correlation between temporally coinciding North Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index and annual rainfall variability is examined to understand the underlying coherence. In total 381 precipitation grid points covering the whole of Ethiopia with five decades (1951–2000) of precipitation data are analysed using the Mann-Kendall test and Moran spatial autocorrelation method. Summer (July–September) seasonal and annual rainfall data exhibit significant decreasing trends in northern, northwestern and western parts of the country, whereas a few grid points in eastern areas show increasing annual rainfall trends. Most other parts of the country exhibit statistically insignificant trends. Regions with high annual and seasonal rainfall distribution exhibit high temporal and spatial correlation indices. Finally, the country is sub-divided into four zones based on annual rainfall similarity. The association of the AMO index with annual rainfall is modestly good for northern and northeastern parts of the country; however, it is weak over the southern region.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. Uhlenbrook

Citation Wagesho, N., Goel, N.K., and Jain, M.K. 2013. Temporal and spatial variability of annual and seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (2), 354–373.     

The coupling instability of Rossby and topographic Rossby waves in the equatorial area

Before the 1980s, El Ni?o was believed as the sea surface warming along the coast of Peru in South America. As the positive anomaly strengths, the warm water expands westward along the equator to form large area of anomalous high sea surface temperature. Rasmusson and Carpenter (1982) summarized the de-velopment process of the sea surface warm water and the corresponding wind field[1] during ENSO cylce. However, this canonical El Ni?o was questioned by 1982-1983 warm episode and later dat…     

Chaotic mixing of tracer and vorticity by modulated travelling Rossby waves

Abstract

We consider the mixing of passive tracers and vorticity by temporally fluctuating large scale flows in two dimensions. In analyzing this problem, we employ modern developments stemming from properties of Hamiltonian chaos in the particle trajectories; these developments generally come under the heading “chaotic advection” or “Lagrangian turbulence.” A review of the salient properties of this kind of mixing, and the mathematics used to analyze it, is presented in the context of passive tracer mixing by a vacillating barotropic Rossby wave. We then take up the characterization of subtler aspects of the mixing. It is shown the chaotic advection produces very nonlocal mixing which cannot be represented by eddy diffusivity. Also, the power spectrum of the tracer field is found to be k ^{? l} at shortwaves—precisely as for mixing by homogeneous, isotropic two dimensional turbulence,—even though the physics of the present case is very different. We have produced two independent arguments accounting for this behavior.

We then examine integrations of the unforced barotropic vorticity equation with initial conditions chosen to give a large scale streamline geometry similar to that analyzed in the passive case. It is found that vorticity mixing proceeds along lines similar to passive tracer mixing. Broad regions of homogenized vorticity ultimately surround the separatrices of the large scale streamline pattern, with vorticity gradients limited to nonchaotic regions (regions of tori) in the corresponding passive problem.

Vorticity in the chaotic zone takes the form of an arrangement of strands which become progressively finer in scale and progressively more densely packed; this process transfers enstrophy to small scales. Although the enstrophy cascade is entirely controlled by the large scale wave, the shortwave enstrophy spectrum ultimately takes on the classical k ^{? l} form. If one accepts that the enstrophy cascade is indeed mediated by chaotic advection, this is the expected behavior. The extreme form of nonlocality (in wavenumber space) manifest in this example casts some doubt on the traditional picture of enstrophy cascade in the Atmosphere, which is based on homogeneous two dimensional turbulence theory. We advance the conjecture that these transfers are in large measure attributable to large scale, low frequency, planetary waves.

Upscale energy transfers amplifying the large scale wave do indeed occur in the course of the above-described process. However, the energy transfer is complete long before vorticity mixing has gotten very far, and therefore has little to do with chaotic advection. In this sense, the vorticity involved in the enstrophy cascade is “fossil vorticity,” which has already given up its energy to the large scale.

We conclude with some speculations concerning statistical mechanics of two dimensional flow, prompted by our finding that flows with identical initial energy and enstrophy can culminate in very different final states. We also outline prospects for further applications of chaotic mixing in atmospheric problems.     

Latitude variability of acoustic-gravity waves in the upper atmosphere based on satellite data

Based on satellite measurements, we investigated the properties of acoustic-gravity waves in different geographical areas of the Earth’s upper atmosphere. To study wave activity at high latitudes, we used the concentration of neutral particles measured by the low-altitude polar satellite Dynamic Explorer 2 and measurements from the equatorial satellite Atmosphere Explorer-E for analysis of waves at low latitudes. In the range of heights 250–400 km, there are observed latitudinal variations of amplitudes, together with variations in the morphological and spectral properties of acoustic-gravity waves. In the polar regions of thermosphere, the wave amplitudes amount to 3–10% in terms of relative variations of density and do not exceed 3% at low and middle latitudes. At low latitudes, regular fluctuations induced by the solar terminator are clearly seen with a predominant wave mode moving synchronously with terminator. Moreover, at low and middle latitudes, there are observed sporadic local wave packets of small amplitudes (1–2%) that can have origins of various natures. We also investigated the relation between some of the observed wave trains and the earthquakes.     

风云三号卫星微波观测的临近空间大气扰动特征

风云三号C星（FY-3C）同时装载有设置了50~60 GHz和118.75 GHz附近氧气吸收带内通道的微波大气垂直探测器,可以用于监测临近空间下部的大气温度.本文的首要目的是展示FY-3C微波大气垂直探测器在监测临近空间（尤其是平流层）强重力波扰动中的优势特点.在给出平流层强扰动监测结果的基础上,分析了不同波段不同通道监测平流层大气温度扰动的能力.随后,对比分析了FY-3C大气温度探测通道与国外同类仪器在观测平流层扰动中的异同点,并进一步讨论了不同平台相同大气微波探测通道联合分析平流层扰动过程的能力.本文在统计2013年冬季（2012年12月和2013年1、2月）和2014年夏季（2014年6、7、8月）的微波大气垂直探测器观测的全球平流层扰动出现频率分布的基础上,利用FY-3C微波大气温度探测器分析了格陵兰岛附近2014年1月7-11日一次平流层扰动过程.结果表明,FY-3C微波探测器50~60 GHz和118.75 GHz波段可用于获取平流层不同高度上的大气温度扰动特征,且前一波段的探测能力显著地优于后一波段.随后,针对2014年1月11日拉布拉多半岛附近的平流层强扰动过程,基于FY-3C的MWTS-Ⅱ与METOP-B的AMSU-A的对比观测表明,MWTS-Ⅱ能够揭示平流层波动更细致的水平结构特征.最后,针对2014年8月10日安第斯山脉附近不同平台仪器的相同通道探测结果的分析表明,多平台联合观测可以进一步提高平流层强扰动监测的时间分辨率.

     

Inter‐annual changes of alpine inland lake water storage on the Tibetan Plateau: Detection and analysis by integrating satellite altimetry and optical imagery

The effects of climate change have a substantial influence on the extremely vulnerable hydrologic environment of the Tibetan Plateau. The estimation of alpine inland lake water storage variations is essential to modeling the alpine hydrologic process and evaluating water resources. Due to a lack of historical hydrologic observations in this remote and inaccessible region, such estimations also fill a gap in studies on the continuous inter‐annual and seasonal changes in the inland lake water budget. Using Lake Siling Co as a case study, we derived a time‐series of lake surface extents from MODIS imagery, and scarce lake water level data from the satellite altimetry of two sensors (ICESat/GLAS and ENVISAT RA‐2) between 2001 and 2011. Then, based on the fact that the rise in lake water levels is tightly dependent on the expansion of the lake extent, we established an empirical model to simulate a continuous lake water level dataset corresponding to the lake area data during the lake's unfreezing period. Consequently, from three dimensions, the lake surface area, water level and water storage variations consistently revealed that Lake Siling Co exhibited a dramatic trend to expand, particularly from 2001 to 2006. Based on the statistical model and lake area measurements from Landsat images since 1972, the extrapolated lake water level and water storage indicate that the lake has maintained a continual expansion process and that the cumulative water storage variations during 1999–2011 account for 66.84% of the total lake water budget (26.87 km³) from 1972 to 2011. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ionospheric slab thickness and its seasonal variations observed by GPS

The ionospheric slab thickness, the ratio of the total electron content (TEC) to the F2-layer peak electron density (NmF2), is closely related to the shape of the ionospheric electron density profile Ne (h) and the TEC. Therefore, the ionospheric slab thickness is a significant parameter representative of the ionosphere. In this paper, the continuous GPS observations in South Korea are firstly used to study the equivalent slab thickness (EST) and its seasonal variability. The averaged diurnal medians of December–January–February (DJF), March–April–May (MAM), June–July–August (JJA) and September–October–November (SON) in 2003 have been considered to represent the winter, spring, summer and autumn seasons, respectively. The results show that the systematic diurnal changes of TEC, NmF2 and EST significantly appeared in each season and the higher values of TEC and NmF2 are observed during the equinoxes (semiannual anomaly) as well as in the mid-daytime of each season. The EST is significantly smaller in winter than in summer, but with a consistent variation pattern. During 14–16 LT in daytime, the larger EST values are observed in spring and autumn, while the smaller ones are in summer and winter. The peaks of EST diurnal variation are around 10–18 LT which are probably caused by the action of the thermospheric wind and the plasmapheric flow into the F2-region.     

Theoretical analysis of lee waves over the Andes as seen by satellite pictures

Summary Satellite pictures have been utilised to detect mountain waves on the lee of the Andes range. The wavelengths as observed in the pictures from the distribution of clouds in parallel bands lie between 20 and 30 km for the five cases examined. The wavelengths have also been computed theoretically for these cases by an analytical method and a quasi-numerical method, using linearised perturbation equations. Wavelengths so computed are in fairly good agreement with the observed wavelengths, Vertical velocities associated with the waves along the different sectors of the Andes have also been computed. Their maximum values are of the order of 1–5 m sec^–1. Also, the quasi-stationary character of the waves, as noticed in some of the pictures, is discussed.     

Interannual variability in the Biannual Rossby waves in the tropical Indian Ocean and its relation to Indian Ocean Dipole and El Nino forcing

The interannual variability of the tropical Indian Ocean is studied using Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) sea surface height anomalies (SSHA) and Hadley Centre Ice Sea Surface Temperature anomalies. Biannual Rossby waves (BRW) were observed along the 1.5° S and 10.5° S latitudes during the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) years. The SODA SSHA and its BRW components were comparable with those of Topex/Poseidon. The phase speed of BRW along 1.5° S is −28 cm/s, which is comparable with the theoretical speed of first mode baroclinic (equatorially trapped) Rossby waves. This is the first study to show that no such propagation is seen along 1.5° S during El Nino years in the absence of IOD. Thus the westward propagating downwelling BRW in the equatorial Indian Ocean is hypothesized as a potential predictor for IOD. These waves transport heat from the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean to west, long before the dipole formation. Along 10.5° S, the BRW formation mechanisms during the El Nino and IOD years were found to be different. The eastern boundary variations along 10.5° S, being localized, do not influence the ocean interior considerably. Major portion of the interannual variability of the thermocline, is caused by the Ekman pumping integrated along the characteristic lines of Rossby waves. The study provides evidence of internal dynamics in the IOD formation. The positive trend in the downwelling BRW (both in SODA and Topex/Poseidon) is of great concern, as it contributes to the Indian Ocean warming.     

Excitation of Rossby waves by HF electromagnetic seismic origin emissions in the earth's mesosphere

Interaction of high-frequency seismo-electromagnetic emissions with the weakly ionized gas of the ionospheric D-layer is considered. It is shown that through the earth's ionosphere weakly damped high-frequency electron cyclotron electromagnetic waves can propagate. These new type of waves easily reach the ionospheric D-layer where they interact with the existing electrons and ions. Acting on electrons ponderomotive force is taken into account and corresponding modified Charney equation is obtained. It is shown that only nonlinear vortical structures with negative vorticity (anticyclone) can be excited. The amplitude modulation of electromagnetic waves can lead to the excitation of Rossby waves in the weakly ionized gas. The corresponding growth rate is defined. Depending on the intensity of the pumping waves generated by seismic activity different stable and unstable branches of oscillations are found. Detection of the new oscillation branches and energetically reinforcing Rossby solitary vortical anticyclone structures may be serve as precursors to earthquake.     

Vertical crustal motions from differential tide gauge observations and satellite altimetry in southern Italy

Our goal is to determine vertical crustal movement rates from tide gauge and satellite altimetry measurements. Tide gauges measure sea level, but as they are fixed to the crust, they sense both sea surface height variations and vertical crustal movements. The differential sea level rates of sufficiently nearby stations are a good means to determine differential crustal movement rates, when sea level height variations can be assumed to be homogeneous. Satellite altimetric measurements determine sea surface height variations directly and can be used to separate the crustal signal from the sea surface height variations in tide gauge measurements. The correction of the tide gauge sea level rates for the sea surface height contribution requires collocation of the satellite pass and the tide gauge station. We show that even if this is not the case, the satellite altimetric observations enable correction of differential tide gauge rates for the effects of sea surface rate inhomogeneities.     

Phase functions of polar mesospheric cloud ice as observed by the CIPS instrument on the AIM satellite

The Cloud Imaging and Particle Size (CIPS) instrument on the Aeronomy of the Ice in the Mesosphere (AIM) spacecraft is a 4-camera nadir pointed imager with a bandpass centered at 265 nm and a field of view of 120°×80°. CIPS observes polar mesospheric clouds (PMCs) against the sunlit Rayleigh-scattered background. At individual polar locations approximately 5 km×5 km in area, CIPS observes the same volume of air seven times over a range of scattering angles from about 35° to 150°. These multi-angle observations allow the identification and extraction of the PMC scattered radiance from the Rayleigh-scattered background. We utilize the fact that the former has a highly asymmetric phase function about 90° scattering angle, while the latter has a phase function that is symmetric. The retrieved PMC phase function can then be interpreted to obtain PMC particle size distributions. We describe a technique for identification of PMCs in the CIPS observations through the separation of the Rayleigh and PMC radiances. PMC phase function results are shown for the first season of CIPS observations. Assuming the particles are oblate spheroids with an axial ratio of 2, and a Gaussian distribution of width 14 nm, we find the phase functions are consistent with mean radii between 50 and 60 nm. These results are similar to those discussed by Hervig et al. [2009. Interpretation of SOFIE PMC measurements: cloud identification and derivation of mass density, particle shape, and particle size. J. Atmos. Sol. Terr. Phys., in review.] in this issue from the Solar Occultation for Ice Experiment (SOFIE) which also flies on the AIM satellite.     

正压大气模式下具有β效应与地形效应的Rossby孤立波

正压大气模式下,采用摄动方法和时空伸长变换推导了具有β效应、地形效应和耗散的mKdV-Burgers方程,得到Rossby孤立波振幅的演变满足带有β效应,地形与耗散的mKdV-Burgersm方程的结论.说明β效应、地形效应是诱导Rossby孤立波的重要因素.     

Tuna aggregation and feeding near fronts observed in satellite imagery

Stomach contents of albacore (Thunnus alalunga) and skipjack (Katsuwonus pelamis) caught off California in August 1983 showed they were feeding on juvenile northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax), other fishes, and planktonic crustaceans. The distribution and diet of these predators were related to mesoscale frontal features visible in satellite sea surface temperature and phytoplankton pigment imagery. Albacore were caught in the vicinity of a filament of cold, pigment-rich surface water that varied with the intensity of coastal upwelling on time scales of several days. Stomachs of albacore caught closer to the filament contained relatively more juvenile anchovy and fewer pelagic red crabs (Pleuroncodes planipes). Skipjack were caught in warm water in the Southern California Bight, north of their normal range due to El Nin˜o warming. They appeared to be feeding most successfully near the strong frontal boundary of a productive, cold water mass south of Pt. Conception, where dense patches of euphausiids were available. Both species were feeding near variable, mesoscale centers of high productivity where prey abundance may be enhanced.     

Spatial and temporal variability of annual and seasonal precipitation over the desert region of China during 1951–2005

The spatial and temporal variations of precipitation in the desert region of China (DRC) from 1951 to 2005 were investigated using a rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF), the precipitation concentration index (PCI) and the Mann–Kendall trend test method (M‐K method). In addition, the association between variation patterns of precipitation and large‐scale circulation were also explored using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data. The results indicated that the spatial pattern of precipitation was primarily the local climate effect significant type, with the first three EOFs explaining a total of 55·3% of the variance, and the large‐scale climate system effect type, which explained 9·8% of the variance. Prior to the 1970s, the East Asian summer monsoon was stronger, which resulted in abundant precipitation in the Inner Mongolia region. Conversely, the climate of the Xinjiang region was controlled by westerly circulation and had lower precipitation. However, this situation has been reversed since the 1980s. It is predicted that precipitation will decrease by 15–40 and 0–10 mm/year in the Inner Mongolia plateau and southern Xinjiang, respectively, whereas it will likely increase by 10–40 mm/year in northern Xinjiang. Additionally, 58–62% of the annual rainfall occurred during summer in the DRC, with precipitation increasing during spring and summer and decreasing in winter. The intra‐annual precipitation is becoming uniform, but the inter‐annual variability in precipitation has been increasing in the western portions of the DRC. The probability of precipitation during the study period increased by 30% and 22·2% in the extreme‐arid zones and arid zones, respectively. Conversely, the probability of precipitation during the study period decreased by 18·5% and 37·5% in the semi‐arid zones and semi‐wet zones, respectively. It is predicted that the northwest portion of the DRC will become warmer and wetter, while the central portion will become warmer and drier and the northeast portion will be subjected to drought. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

TC-1卫星在近地磁尾观测到的持续尾向流、等离子体片变薄和偶极化过程

2004年7月14日TC-1卫星在近地磁尾(-9.3Re,-5.4Re,1.2Re)附近观测到了伴随有持续尾向流的等离体片变薄和偶极化过程.尾向流持续时间为32分钟.偶极化过程中磁场By分量没有明显变化.在偶极化过程发生两分钟之后,地面台站观测到的Pi2脉动.ACE卫星的观测表明行星际磁场有弱的南向行星际磁场（-2nT）,持续时间约55分钟.Imagine卫星在电离层区域没有观测到极光出现.和伴随有极光增亮的亚暴过程相比,南向行星际磁场明显较弱,且持续时间短.TC-1卫星和ACE卫星的联合观测表明尾部释能有大有小,并非达到某值才能发生.但能量小时,不能够引起极光亚暴.其次南向行星际磁场有可能与近地磁尾尾向流有密切关系.     

Probability distribution of annual,seasonal and monthly precipitation in Japan

Abstract

The method of L-moment ratio diagrams and the average weighted distance (AWD) are used to determine the probability distribution type of annual, seasonal and monthly precipitation in Japan. For annual precipitation, the log-Pearson type III (LP3) distribution provides the best fit to the observations with the generalized-extreme value (GEV), three-parameter lognormal (LN3) and Pearson type III (P3) distributions as potential alternatives. For seasonal precipitation, the P3 distribution shows the best fit to the observations of spring precipitation; the LP3 the best fit for summer and winter precipitation; and the LN3 the best fit for autumn precipitation with the LP3 as a potential alternative. For monthly precipitation, the P3 distribution fits the precipitation best for January, February, March, May, July, October and December; the LP3 for June; and the LN3 for April, August, September and November. The identified probability distribution types of annual, seasonal and monthly precipitation are basically consistent. Overall, the P3 and LP3 distributions are acceptable distribution types for representing statistics of precipitation in Japan with the LN3 distribution as a potential alternative.     

The generation of baroclinic Rossby waves by stationary and and translating currents part 1. Stationary current forcing

Abstract

This paper investigates the generation of linear, baroclinic Rossby waves by an imposed current distribution, in a reduced gravity ocean, both with and without an eastern coast. A zonal current is impulsively applied and maintained along the northern edge of the domain of solution. Using Green's function techniques, analytical solutions are found, and these are evaluated for small times. Numerical solutions are obtained for larger times. The upper layer depth field consists of a transient response, due to the sudden application of the current. Maintenance of the current causes a response which is singular along the line of imposed non-zero h _y. The interior field decays with time (this is shown asymptotically). The parameters used are appropriate for the mid-latitude North Pacific, and the results are relevant to sudden transport changes in the North Pacific Current.     

An investigation of ensemble-based assimilation of satellite altimetry and tide gauge data in storm surge prediction

Cyclogenesis and long-fetched winds along the southeastern coast of South America may lead to floods in populated areas, as the Buenos Aires Province, with important economic and social impacts. A numerical model (SMARA) has already been implemented in the region to forecast storm surges. The propagation time of the surge in such extensive and shallow area allows the detection of anomalies based on observations from several hours up to the order of a day prior to the event. Here, we investigate the impact and potential benefit of storm surge level data assimilation into the SMARA model, with the objective of improving the forecast. In the experiments, the surface wind stress from an ensemble prediction system drives a storm surge model ensemble, based on the operational 2-D depth-averaged SMARA model. A 4-D Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (4D-LETKF) initializes the ensemble in a 6-h cycle, assimilating the very few tide gauge observations available along the northern coast and satellite altimeter data. The sparse coverage of the altimeters is a challenge to data assimilation; however, the 4D-LETKF evolving covariance of the ensemble perturbations provides realistic cross-track analysis increments. Improvements on the forecast ensemble mean show the potential of an effective use of the sparse satellite altimeter and tidal gauges observations in the data assimilation prototype. Furthermore, the effects of the localization scale and of the observational errors of coastal altimetry and tidal gauges in the data assimilation approach are assessed.