Interdecadal Variability of the ENSO–North Pacific Atmospheric Circulation in Winter

The interdecadal change in the relationship between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and atmospheric circulation over the North Pacific is investigated using both observational data and an atmospheric general circulation model. There are two prominent modes of winter mid-latitude atmospheric variability in the North Pacific: the West Pacific (WP) teleconnection and the Aleutian Low (AL). The relationship between ENSO and the WP-AL patterns changed notably around the late 1970s. From 1957 to 1975, during the mature phase of ENSO, significant sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) occurred, mainly in the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean; the associated atmospheric circulation anomaly pattern resembles the negative phase of a WP teleconnection pattern. In contrast, for the 1978–2011 period, significant negative SSTAs were observed in the western and extratropical Pacific in both hemispheres, with some significant positive SSTAs appearing over the eastern Pacific. This is in agreement with the defined regions of a mega-ENSO, the associated atmospheric circulation anomaly pattern resembles the AL mode. Further analysis suggests that a negative–positive anomaly pattern in the 500?hPa geopotential height throughout the entire North Pacific, possibly enhanced by the SSTAs in the extratropical North Pacific associated with the mature phase of ENSO, is responsible for modulating the relationship between ENSO and the North Pacific atmospheric circulation.     

Predictable and Unpredictable Components of the Summer East Asia–Pacific Teleconnection Pattern

The East Asia–Pacific(EAP) teleconnection pattern is the dominant mode of circulation variability during boreal summer over the western North Pacific and East Asia, extending from the tropics to high latitudes. However, much of this pattern is absent in multi-model ensemble mean forecasts, characterized by very weak circulation anomalies in the mid and high latitudes. This study focuses on the absence of the EAP pattern in the extratropics, using state-of-the-art coupled seasonal forecast systems. The results indicate that the extratropical circulation is much less predictable, and lies in the large spread among different ensemble members, implying a large contribution from atmospheric internal variability. However,the tropical–mid-latitude teleconnections are also relatively weaker in models than observations, which also contributes to the failure of prediction of the extratropical circulation. Further results indicate that the extratropical EAP pattern varies closely with the anomalous surface temperatures in eastern Russia, which also show low predictability. This unpredictable circulation–surface temperature connection associated with the EAP pattern can also modulate the East Asian rainband.     

Estimation of dependence of seasonal predictability of meteorological quantities in different regions of the Northern Hemisphere on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon

Potential predictability and rms errors of ensemble forecasting of seasonal variability of the meteorological fields are estimated for different El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes in the winter and summer of 1983–2002. By means of composite analysis, the rms errors and the potential predictability index are compared for different ENSO episodes in seven regions of the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. It is shown that the ENSO signals have a model-resolved response in the atmospheric circulation patterns in certain extratropical regions for some meteorological quantities. Geographic distribution of the potential predictability index shows that the maximum values occur near the centers of action of the main teleconnection systems.     

An intimate coupling of ocean–atmospheric interaction over the extratropical North Atlantic and Pacific

The inter-basin teleconnection between the North Atlantic and the North Pacific ocean–atmosphere interaction is studied using a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model. In the model, an idealized oceanic temperature anomaly is initiated over the Kuroshio and the Gulf Stream extension region to track the coupled evolution of ocean and atmosphere interaction, respectively. The experiments explicitly demonstrate that both the North Pacific and the North Atlantic ocean–atmosphere interactions are intimately coupled through an inter-basin atmospheric teleconnection. This fast inter-basin communication can transmit oceanic variability between the North Atlantic and the North Pacific through local ocean-to-atmosphere feedbacks. The leading mode of the extratropical atmospheric internal variability plays a dominant role in shaping the hemispheric-scale response forced by oceanic variability over the North Atlantic and Pacific. Modeling results also suggest that a century (two centuries) long observations are necessary for the detection of Pacific response to Atlantic forcings (Atlantic response to Pacific forcing).     

Coupled atmosphere�Cmixed layer ocean response to ocean heat flux convergence along the Kuroshio Current Extension

The winter response of the coupled atmosphere?Cocean mixed layer system to anomalous geostrophic ocean heat flux convergence in the Kuroshio Extension is investigated by means of experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to an entraining ocean mixed layer model in the extra-tropics. The direct response consists of positive SST anomalies along the Kuroshio Extension and a baroclinic (low-level trough and upper-level ridge) circulation anomaly over the North Pacific. The low-level component of this atmospheric circulation response is weaker in the case without coupling to an extratropical ocean mixed layer, especially in late winter. The inclusion of an interactive mixed layer in the tropics modifies the direct coupled atmospheric response due to a northward displacement of the Pacific Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone which drives an equivalent barotropic anomalous ridge over the North Pacific. Although the tropically driven component of the North Pacific atmospheric circulation response is comparable to the direct response in terms of sea level pressure amplitude, it is less important in terms of wind stress curl amplitude due to the mitigating effect of the relatively broad spatial scale of the tropically forced atmospheric teleconnection.     

Tropical/extratropical forcing on wintertime variability of the extratropical temperature and circulation

The secular trends and interannual variability of wintertime temperatures over northern extratropical lands and circulations over the northern hemisphere are examined using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis from 1961 to 2010. A primitive equation dry atmospheric model, driven by time-averaged forcing in each winter diagnosed from the NCEP reanalysis, is then employed to investigate the influences of tropical and extratropical forcing on the temperature and circulation variability. The model has no topography and the forcing is thus model specific. The dynamic and thermodynamic maintenances of the circulation and temperature anomalies are also diagnosed. Distinct surface temperature trends over 1961–1990 and 1991–2010 are found over most of the extratropical lands. The trend is stronger in the last two decades than that before 1990, particularly over eastern Canadian Arctic, Greenland, and Asia. The exchange of midlatitude and polar air supports the temperature trends. Both the diagnosed extratropical and tropical forcings contribute to the temperature and circulation trends over 1961–1990, while the extratropical forcing dominates tropical forcing for the trends over 1991–2010. The contribution of the tropical forcing to the trends is sensitive to the period considered. The temperature and circulation responses to the diagnosed tropical and extratropical forcings are approximately additive and partially offsetting. Covariances between the interannual surface temperature and 500-hPa geopotential anomalies for the NCEP reanalysis from 1961 to 2010 are dominated by two leading modes associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Pacific-North American (PNA) teleconnection patterns. The diagnosed extratropical forcing accounts for a significant part of the NAO and PNA associated variability, including the interannual variability of stationary wave anomalies, as well as dynamically and thermodynamically synoptic eddy feedbacks over the North Atlantic and North Pacific. The tropical forcing contributes to the PNA related temperature and circulation variability, but has a small contribution to the NAO associated variability. Additionally, relative contributions of tropical Indian and Pacific forcings are also assessed.     

The seasonal footprinting mechanism in CFSv2: simulation and impact on ENSO prediction

The seasonal footprinting mechanism (SFM) is thought to be a pre-cursor to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Fluctuations in the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) impact the ocean via surface heat fluxes during winter, leaving a sea-surface temperature (SST) “footprint” in the subtropics. This footprint persists through the spring, impacting the tropical Pacific atmosphere–ocean circulation throughout the following year. The simulation of the SFM in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2) is likely to have an impact on operational predictions of ENSO and potentially seasonal predictions in the United States associated with ENSO teleconnection patterns. The ability of the CFSv2 to simulate the SFM and the relationship between the SFM and ENSO prediction skill in the NCEP/CFSv2 are investigated. Results indicate that the CFSv2 is able to simulate the basic characteristics of the SFM and its relationship with ENSO, including extratropical sea level pressure anomalies associated with the NPO in the winter, corresponding wind and SST anomalies that impact the tropics, and the development of ENSO-related SST anomalies the following winter. Although the model is able to predict the correct sign of ENSO associated with the SFM in a composite sense, probabilistic predictions of ENSO following a positive or negative NPO event are generally less reliable than when the NPO is not active.     

Seasonality and time scales in the relationship between global SST and African rainfall

The main goal of this study is to determine the oceanic regions corresponding to variability in African rainfall and seasonal differences in the atmospheric teleconnections. Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) has been applied in order to extract the dominant patterns of linear covariability. An ensemble of six simulations with the global atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM4, forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice boundary variability, is used in order to focus on the SST-related part of African rainfall variability. Our main finding is that the boreal summer rainfall (June–September mean) over Africa is more affected by SST changes than in boreal winter (December–March mean). In winter, there is a highly significant link between tropical African rainfall and Indian Ocean and eastern tropical Pacific SST anomalies, which is closely related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, long-term changes are found to be associated with SST changes in the Indian and tropical Atlantic Oceans, thus, showing that the tropical Atlantic plays a critical role in determining the position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Since ENSO is less in summer, the tropical Pacific and the Indian Oceans are less important for African rainfall. The African summer monsoon is strongly influenced by SST variations in the Gulf of Guinea, with a response of opposite sign over the Sahelian zone and the Guinean coast region. SST changes in the subtropical and extratropical oceans mostly take place on decadal time scales and are responsible for low-frequency rainfall fluctuations over West Africa. The modelled teleconnections are highly consistent with the observations. The agreement for most of the teleconnection patterns is remarkable and suggests that the modelled rainfall anomalies serve as suitable predictors for the observed changes.     

Fast responses of Northern Hemisphere winter daily circulation to anthropogenic aerosols

Anthropogenic aerosols (AA) have significantly caused anomalous winter mean atmospheric circulation over the Northern Hemisphere, but the main daily patterns of winter large-scale circulation change are not well understood. Here a self-organizing map analysis is applied to identify the leading patterns in AA-induced winter daily geopotential height (Z) anomaly fields simulated by three atmospheric general circulation models, with a focus on fast adjustments. Two winter daily circulation response patterns with a synoptic time scale are found: one pattern shows concurring Z anomalies over North America and North Asia with the same sign and the Bering Sea seeing the opposite, resembling the Asia–Bering–North American teleconnection; while the other is the Arctic Oscillation-like pattern with similar Z anomalies over North Pacific and North Atlantic and the opposite over the Arctic region. The AA-induced anomalous precipitation over the tropics and anomalous synoptic eddy activities over the extratropical oceans concur to support and maintain these circulation anomaly patterns. The winter-mean climate responses to AA can be understood as a result of these daily anomaly patterns, especially over the higher latitudes. Specifically, the associated changes in surface air temperature (SAT) over the mid-high latitudes are caused by the AA-driven meridional movements of polar (cold and dry) airmass and midlatitude (warm and moist) airmass in the regions, mainly through the relevant surface downward longwave radiation. This study highlights the role of AA in altering daily weather patterns, which is not sufficiently captured by seasonal mean responses.     

ENSO variability and atmospheric response in a global coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM

The interannual variability associated with the El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle is investigated using a relatively high-resolution (T42) coupled general circulation model (CGCM) of the atmosphere and ocean. Although the flux correction is restricted to annual means of heat and freshwater, the annual as well as the seasonal climate of the CGCM is in good agreement with that of the atmospheric model component forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). During a 100-year simulation of the present-day climate, the model is able to capture many features of the observed interannual SST variability in the tropical Pacific. This includes amplitude, lifetime and frequency of occurrence of El Ni?o events and also the phase locking of the SST anomalies to the annual cycle. Although the SST warming during the evolution of El Ni?os is too confined spatially, and the warming along the Peruvian coast is much too weak, the patterns and magnitudes of key atmospheric anomalies such as westerly wind stress and precipitation, and also their eastward migration from the western to the central equatorial Pacific is in accord with observations. There is also a qualitative agreement with the results obtained from the atmospheric model forced with observed SSTs from 1979 through 1994. The large-scale dynamic response during the mature phase of ENSO (December through February) is characterized by an eastward displacement and weakening of the Walker cell in the Pacific while the Hadley cell intensifies and moves equatorward. Similar to the observations, there is a positive correlation between tropical Pacific SST and the winter circulation in the North Pacific. The deepening of the Aleutian low during the ENSO winters is well captured by the model as well as the cooling in the central North Pacific and the warming over Canada and Alaska. However, there are indications that the anomalies of both SST and atmospheric circulation are overemphasized in the North Pacific. Finally, there is evidence of a coherent downstream effect over the North Atlantic as indicated by negative correlations between the PNA index and the NAO index, for example. The weakening of the westerlies across the North Atlantic in ENSO winters which is related to a weakening and southwestward displacement of the Icelandic low, is in broad agreement with the observations, as well as the weak tendency for colder than normal winters in Europe. Received: 31 October 1995 / Accepted: 29 May 1996     

Potential predictability of Eurasian snow cover

Potential predictability and skill of simulated Eurasian snow cover are explored using a suite of seasonal ensemble hindcasts (i.e. retrospective forecasts), an ensemble climate simulation (spanning the years 1982–1998) and observations. Using remotely sensed observations of snow cover, we find significant point-wise correlation over the North Atlantic and North Pacific between winter and spring averaged sea-surface temperatures and Eurasian snow cover area. The observed correlation shows no discernible pattern related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The hindcasts show correlation patterns similar to the observations. However, the climate simulation shows an exaggerated ENSO pattern. The results underscore the importance of initialization in seasonal climate forecasts, and that the observed potential predictability of Eurasian snowcover cannot be solely attributed to ENSO.     

Seasonal prediction skill of ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective forecast for the Northern Hemisphere Winter

The seasonal prediction skill for the Northern Hemisphere winter is assessed using retrospective predictions (1982–2010) from the ECMWF System 4 (Sys4) and National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) CFS version 2 (CFSv2) coupled atmosphere–ocean seasonal climate prediction systems. Sys4 shows a cold bias in the equatorial Pacific but a warm bias is found in the North Pacific and part of the North Atlantic. The CFSv2 has strong warm bias from the cold tongue region of the eastern Pacific to the equatorial central Pacific and cold bias in broad areas over the North Pacific and the North Atlantic. A cold bias in the Southern Hemisphere is common in both reforecasts. In addition, excessive precipitation is found in the equatorial Pacific, the equatorial Indian Ocean and the western Pacific in Sys4, and in the South Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean and the western Pacific in CFSv2. A dry bias is found for both modeling systems over South America and northern Australia. The mean prediction skill of 2 meter temperature (2mT) and precipitation anomalies are greater over the tropics than the extra-tropics and also greater over ocean than land. The prediction skill of tropical 2mT and precipitation is greater in strong El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) winters than in weak ENSO winters. Both models predict the year-to-year ENSO variation quite accurately, although sea surface temperature trend bias in CFSv2 over the tropical Pacific results in lower prediction skill for the CFSv2 relative to the Sys4. Both models capture the main ENSO teleconnection pattern of strong anomalies over the tropics, the North Pacific and the North America. However, both models have difficulty in forecasting the year-to-year winter temperature variability over the US and northern Europe.     

Impacts of SST anomalies on the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation: a case study for the northern winter 1995/1996

The present paper selects the northern winter of December 1995–February 1996 for a case study on the impact of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on the atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic and Western Europe. In the Atlantic, the selected winter was characterized by positive SST anomalies over the northern subtropics and east of Newfoundland, and negative anomalies along the US coast. A weak La Niña event developed in the Pacific. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index was low, precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula and northern Africa was anomalously high, and precipitation over northern Europe was anomalously low. The method of study consists of assessing the sensitivity of ensemble simulations by the UCLA atmospheric general circulation model (UCLA AGCM) to SST anomalies from the observation, which are prescribed either in the World Oceans, the Atlantic Ocean only, or the subtropical North Atlantic only. The results obtained are compared with a control run that uses global, time-varying climatological SST. The ensemble simulations with global and Atlantic-only SST anomalies both produce results that resemble the observations over the North Atlantic and Western Europe. It is suggested that the anomalous behavior of the atmosphere in the selected winter over those regions, therefore, was primarily determined by conditions within the Atlantic basin. The simulated fields in the tropical North Atlantic show anomalous upward motion and lower (upper) level convergence (divergence) in the atmosphere overlying the positive SST anomalies. Consistently, the subtropical jet intensifies and its core moves equatorward, and precipitation increases over northern Africa and southern Europe. The results also suggest that the SST anomalies in the tropical North Atlantic only do not suffice to produce the atmospheric anomalies observed in the basin during the selected winter. The extratropical SST anomalies would provide a key contribution through increased transient eddy activity, which causes an extension of the subtropical jet eastward from the coast of North America.     

SST and ENSO variability and change simulated in historical experiments of CMIP5 models

This work documents the diversity in Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models in simulating different aspects of sea surface temperature (SST) variability, particularly those associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), as well as the impact of low-frequency variations on the ENSO variability and its global teleconnection. The historical simulations (1870–2005) include 10 models with ensemble member ranging from 3 to 10 that are forced with observed atmospheric composition changes reflecting both natural and anthropogenic forcings. It is shown that the majority of the CMIP5 models capture the relative large SST anomaly variance in the tropical central and eastern Pacific, as well as in North Pacific and North Atlantic. The frequency of ENSO is not well captured by almost all models, particularly for the period of 5–6 years. The low-frequency variations in SST caused by external forcings affect the SST variability and also modify the global teleconnection of ENSO. The models reproduce the global averaged SST low-frequency variations, particularly since 1970s. However, majority of the models are unable to correctly simulate the spatial pattern of the observed SST trends. These results suggest that it is still a challenge to reproduce the features of global historical SST variations with the state-of-the-art coupled general circulation model.     

Interannual variations and future change of wintertime extratropical cyclone activity over North America in CCSM3

Climatology and interannual variations of wintertime extratropical cyclone frequency in CCSM3 twentieth century simulation are compared with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis during 1950–1999. CCSM3 can simulate the storm tracks reasonably well, although the model produces slightly less cyclones at the beginning of the Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks and weaker poleward deflection over the Pacific. As in the reanalysis, frequency of cyclones stronger than 980 hPa shows significant correlation with the Pacific/North America (PNA) teleconnection pattern over the Pacific region and with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the Atlantic sector. Composite maps are constructed for opposite phases of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the NAO and all anomalous patterns coincide with observed. One CCSM3 twenty-first century A1B scenario realization indicates there is significant increase in the extratropical cyclone frequency on the US west coast and decrease in Alaska. Meanwhile, cyclone frequency increases from the Great Lakes region to Quebec and decreases over the US east coast, suggesting a possible northward shift of the Atlantic storm tracks under the warmer climate. The cyclone frequency anomalies are closely linked to changes in seasonal mean states of the upper-troposphere zonal wind and baroclinicity in the lower troposphere. Due to lack of 6-hourly outputs, we cannot apply the cyclone-tracking algorithm to the other eight CCSM3 realizations. Based on the linkage between the mean state change and the cyclone frequency anomalies, it is likely a common feature among the other ensemble members that cyclone activity is reduced on the East Coast and in Alaska as a result of global warming.     

东亚-太平洋遥相关型形成过程与ENSO盛期海温关系的研究

利用1961～2000年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、扩展重建的海表温度资料(ERSST)和中国730个站旬降水资料,采用SVD和扩展SVD（ESVD）分析、合成分析、相关分析等方法,在分析中国梅雨期降水与同期大气环流和前期冬季海温之间关系的基础上,研究了ENSO盛期海温异常导致与长江流域梅雨期降水密切相关的东亚/太平洋（EAP）遥相关型形成的过程,及与ENSO相关的海温和大气环流异常的持续性问题。结果表明,梅雨期EAP遥相关型的出现与ENSO遥强迫作用有密切关系。联系冬季ENSO和梅雨期EAP遥相关型的关键过程主要有三个:（1）西北太平洋低纬地区异常反气旋环流的形成和维持, 它在冬季形成后一直可维持到夏季,使得夏季西北太平洋副热带高压偏南偏强;（2）东亚大槽持续偏弱,冷空气活动路径偏北偏东,使西北太平洋海温呈亲潮区偏冷、黑潮区偏暖的海温分布; （3）PNA遥相关型的持续发展,使北冰洋地区高度增高。后二者通过局地海气相互作用和大气内部调整过程对初夏鄂霍次克海阻塞形势的形成起重要作用。另外,持续性分析表明,ENSO年大气环流和海温距平型的持续性要比非ENSO年大得多。在ENSO年大气环流和海温之间存在很强的相互作用耦合关系,ENSO引起的大气环流异常可导致太平洋海温异常,而海温异常一旦形成反过来又可导致大气环流异常的稳定和维持,对后期初夏东亚季风和我国天气气候产生明显滞后效应。     

ENSO forcing of the Northern Hemisphere climate in a large ensemble of model simulations based on a very long SST record

The January–March (JFM) climate response of the Northern Hemisphere atmosphere to observed sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies for the period 1855–2002 is analysed from a 35-member ensemble made with SPEEDY, an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) of intermediate complexity. The model was run at the T30-L8 resolution, and initial conditions and the early stage of model runs differ among ensemble members in the definition of tropical diabatic heating. SST anomalies in the Niño3.4 region were categorised into five classes extending from strong cold to strong warm. Composites based on such a categorisation enabled an analysis of the influence of the tropical Pacific SST on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation with an emphasis on the Pacific-North America (PNA) and the North Atlantic-Europe (NAE) regions. As expected, the strongest signal was detected over the PNA region. An “asymmetry” in the model response was found for the opposite polarity of the Niño3.4 index; however, this asymmetry stems mainly from the difference in the amplitude of model response rather than from the phase shift between responses to warm and cold El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The extratropical signal associated with warm ENSO events was found to be stronger than that related to cold events. The results also reveal that, for the PNA region, the amplitude of the response is positively correlated with the strength of ENSO, irrespective of the sign of ENSO. With almost no phase shift between model responses to El Niño and La Niña, the linear component of the response is much stronger than the non-linear component. Although the model climate response over the NAE region is much weaker than that over the PNA region, some striking similarities with the PNA are found. Both sea level pressure and precipitation responses are positively correlated with the strength of ENSO. This is not true for the 200-hPa geopotential heights, and no plausible explanation for such a result could be offered. An appreciable linear component in model response over the NAE was also found. The model results over the NAE region agree reasonably well with observational studies. An additional analysis of the remote atmospheric response to very weak ENSO forcing (defined from the interval between 0.5σ and 1.0σ of the interannual variance) was also carried out. A discernible model response in the Northern Hemisphere to such a weak SST forcing was found.     

Predictability of the western North Pacific summer climate associated with different ENSO phases by ENSEMBLES multi-model seasonal forecasts

Predictability of the western North Pacific (WNP) summer climate associated with different El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases is investigated in this study based on the 1-month lead retrospective forecasts of five state-of-the-art coupled models from ENSEMBLES. During the period from 1960 to 2005, the models well capture the WNP summer climate anomalies during most of years in different ENSO phases except the La Niña decaying summers. In the El Niño developing, El Niño decaying and La Niña developing summers, the prediction skills are high for the WNP summer monsoon index (WNPMI), with the prediction correlation larger than 0.7. The high prediction skills of the lower-tropospheric circulation during these phases are found mainly over the tropical western Pacific Ocean, South China Sea and subtropical WNP. These good predictions correspond well to their close teleconnection with ENSO and the high prediction skills of tropical SSTs. By contrast, for the La Niña decaying summers, the prediction skills are considerably low with the prediction correlation for the WNPMI near to zero and low prediction skills around the Philippines and subtropical WNP. These poor predictions relate to the weak summer anomalies of the WNPMI during the La Niña decaying years and no significant connections between the WNP lower-tropospheric circulation anomalies and the SSTs over the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean in observations. However, the models tend to predict an apparent anomalous cyclone over the WNP during the La Niña decaying years, indicating a linearity of the circulation response over WNP in the models prediction in comparison with that during the El Niño decaying years which differs from observations. In addition, the models show considerable capability in describing the WNP summer anomalies during the ENSO neutral summers. These anomalies are related to the positive feedback between the WNP lower-tropospheric circulation and the local SSTs. The models can capture this positive feedback but with some uncertainties from different ensemble members during the ENSO neutral summers.     

The impact of ENSO periodicity on North Pacific SST variability

The periodicity of ENSO in nature varies. Here we examine how changes in the frequency of ENSO impacts remote teleconnections in the North Pacific. The numerical experiments presented here are designed to simulate perfectly periodic ENSO in the tropical Pacific, and to enable the air–sea interaction in other regions (i.e., the North Pacific) via a simple mixed layer ocean model. The temporal evolution and spatial structure of the North Pacific SST teleconnection patterns are relatively insensitive to the frequency of ENSO, but the amplitude of the variability is sensitive. Specifically, the 2-year period ENSO experiment (P2) shows weak event-by-event consistency in the ENSO response mature pattern. This is because there is not enough time to damp the previously forced ENSO teleconnections (i.e., 1 year earlier). The 4-year period ENSO experiment (P4) has 1 year damping time before a successive ENSO event matures, so the structure of the response pattern is stably repeated. However, the event-by-event variance of anomaly magnitude, specifically responding to El Niño, is still larger than that in the 6-year ENSO experiment (P6), which has 2-year damping time between consecutive ENSO events. In addition, we tested whether the variability due to tropical remote forcing is linearly independent of the extratropical local variability. Statistical tests indicate that tropical remote forcing can constructively or destructively interfere with local variability in the North Pacific. Lastly, there is a non-linear rectification of the ENSO events that can be detected in the climatology.     

The impact of combined ENSO and PDO on the PNA climate: a 1,000-year climate modeling study

This study analyzes the atmospheric response to the combined Pacific interannual ENSO and decadal–interdecadal PDO variability, with a focus on the Pacific-North American (PNA) sector, using a 1,000-year long integration of the Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) coupled climate model. Both the tropospheric circulation and the North American temperature suggest an enhanced PNA-like climate response and impacts on North America when ENSO and PDO variability are in phase. The anomalies of the centers of action for the PNA-like pattern are significantly different from zero and the anomaly pattern is field significant. In association with the stationary wave anomalies, large stationary wave activity fluxes appear in the mid-high latitudes originating from the North Pacific and flowing downstream toward North America. There are significant Rossby wave source anomalies in the extratropical North Pacific and in the subtropical North Pacific. In addition, the axis of the Pacific storm track shifts southward with the positive PNA. Atmospheric heating anomalies associated with ENSO variability are confined primarily to the tropics. There is an anomalous heating center over the northeast Pacific, together with anomalies with the same polarity in the tropical Pacific, for the PDO variability. The in-phase combination of ENSO and PDO would in turn provide anomalous atmospheric energy transports towards North America from both the Tropical Pacific and the North Pacific, which tends to favor the occurrence of stationary wave anomalies and would lead to a PNA-like wave anomaly structure. The modeling results also confirm our analysis based on the observational record in the twentieth century.