双基地天气雷达系统的有效照射体积

根据"有效照射体"的基本概念,采用微分理论来回避椭球面近似为平面的假设,推导了双基地雷达系统有效照射体积表达式,证明双基地雷达系统有效照射体积与单基地雷达有效照射体积之比值V_b/V_m,在数值上等于双基地系统主站极轴长度R_t相对于半长轴长度a的导数.有效照射体积数值计算结果与以往相同,放宽了推导过程中的假设条件,显得更加严谨、易懂.还给出了双基地雷达系统各几何量(如V_b/V_m、R_t、主站共面方位Φ、辅站极轴长度Rr、辅站共面方位Φ_r、双基地角β)之间的一些关系式,分析了在双基地雷达系统探测过程中有效照射体积随有关量变化的特征,为双基地偏振雷达系统天线控制、资料处理、旁瓣影响分析、探测精度提高等提供理论依据.     

The ozone,aerosol depletion and condensation nuclei events in the stratosphere

Recently, the depletion in ozone and aerosol extinctions inside Antarctic Spring westerly vortex and condensa-tion nuclei enhancement events in the mid latitudes stratosphere were related to downward transport of aerosols by subsidence and sedimentation. However, the problems associated with such hypothesis would keep a constraint on photochemical theories on ozone hole and stratospheric condensation nuclei (CN) events. Alternately, the gross fea-tures of aerosol hole are better explicable assuming a reversed residual circulation. This opens a path for combined operation on ozone by both photochemistry and dynamics in the same space domain.Independently, we relate the CN events to the growth and transport of negative ion complexes above the Peak of Junge Layer (PJL) without invoking photochemistry in order to be consistant with the observed interhemispheric dif-ferences in the planetary wave activity and CN concentration.     

降水信息分析服务子系统

降水资料无论在气象情报服务还是在预报制作中,都占有重要位置.为了提高情报服务的现代化水平,黑龙江省气象台建立了一套功能齐全的情报服务系统,降水信息分析服务子系统是其中的重要组成部分.     

Analytical estimations of the efficiency of climate warming prevention by controlled aerosol emissions into the stratosphere

Analytical solutions of globally averaged energy-balance model to estimate the efficiency of controlled forcing on the climate in the result of sulfate aerosol emissions into the stratosphere are obtained. According to obtained results, the sulfate aerosol emissions, needed to prevent the warming, make up from 2 to 12 Mt S/year in the end of the 21st century depending on the anthropogenic impact scenario and aerosol parameters. In the case of the cessation of such compensative emissions of sulfate aerosols, the global temperature increase rate may reach 3 K per decade, that is several times more than values, derived when taking account of greenhouse effect only.     

Studying the aerosol fluxes by using the floating aerosol trap

In this paper, a functional scheme and basic principles of the floating aerosol trap, which has been developed by the authors, are presented. The first experimental results of the vertical aerosol fluxes coming on the Visla Bay surface (the Baltic Sea) and measured with the trap are demonstrated.     

Development of sampling downscaling: a case for wintertime precipitation in Hokkaido

This study has developed sampling downscaling (SmDS), in which dynamical downscaling (DDS) is executed for a few of period selected from a long-term integration by general circulation model based on an observed statistical relationship between large-scale climate and regional-scale precipitation. SmDS expectedly produces climatology and frequency distribution of precipitation over a nested region with reducing computational cost, if a global-scale climate pattern mostly controls regional-scale weather statistics. Here SmDS was attempted for wintertime precipitation over Hokkaido, Japan, because a linkage between snowfall and sea-level pressure patterns has been known by Japanese synopticians and it can be detected by singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis on wintertime inter-annual variability during the period from 1980/1981 to 2009/2010 for precipitation over Hokkaido and moisture flux convergence around there. DDS for the full period over the same domain was also performed for comparison with SmDS. SmDS selected two winters from the top and two winters from the bottom of the projection onto the first SVD mode. It was found that, comparing with the full DDS, SmDS indeed provided unbiased statistics for average but exaggerated extreme statistics such as heavy rainfall frequency. It was also shown that the sampling in the SmDS method was much more effective than the random sampling.     

A study of microphysical properties within a precipitation system using wind profiler spectra

This study investigates microphysical properties from wind profiler Doppler spectra observed within a precipitation system that produced high rainfall rates up to 40 mm hr^?1 near the southern coast of the Korean Peninsula on 25～26 June 2010. A 1290-MHz wind profiler located in the National Center for Intensive Observation of Severe Weather at Boseong, Korea, observed a widespread stratiform region and short-lived convective cells from 1850 UTC 25 to 0200 UTC 26 June 2010. By using a spectral model applied to observed profiler spectra, rainfall parameters and raindrop size distributions were retrieved below a melting layer during this period. Three representative periods during precipitation were selected based on intensities of bright band and characteristics in vertical profiles of radar reflectivity and Doppler velocity. During a brief convective period (～30 min), radar reflectivity tended to be proportional to vertical air motion (positive upward), suggesting that updrafts up to ～3 m s^?1 over a large vertical extent through the melting layer probably contributed to increasing rainfall rates at the surface. In reflectivityrainfall rate distributions, large drop spectra (high reflectivity) were analyzed within downdrafts and small drop spectra (low reflectivity) within updrafts, similar to the large and small drop spectra but found in stratiform and convective regions, respectively, in previous studies. This indicates that the degree of spread between reflectivity and rainfall rate may be strongly dependent on positive and negative magnitudes of vertical air motion. For three categories of vertical air motion (i.e., updrafts, neutral, and downdrafts), physical relations between the retrieved rainfall parameters were examined.     

光流法及其在临近预报中的应用

基于多尺度IVAP(MIVAP,the Multi-scale Integrating Velocity Azimuth Process)方法反演风场进行临近外推的预报方法原理可以概括为：首先采用大尺度的分析单元通过IVAP(Integrating Velocity Azimuth Process)方法得到反演风场作为引导气流,表示雷暴的系统性移动,再通过小尺度的分析单元来反演风场,作为雷暴内部移动信息的表征,最后将不同尺度的风场进行合成得到外推的运动矢量场以进行临近预报。相比传统的多尺度TREC(MTREC,the Multi-scale Tracking Radar Echoes by Correlation)方法依赖于追踪回波过去的变化,需要相邻一个或者几个时次的雷达回波来跟踪雷达回波的移动,使用MIVAP方法外推预报只需要最新时刻的雷达反射率因子和径向速度。通过个例分析和统计分析,并且与MTREC方法进行对比试验,结果表明：MIVAP方法反演风场用于临近外推预报具有可行性,MIVAP方法具有实际应用的意义;MIVAP方法得到的外推运动矢量场方向要比MTREC方法方向总体整体偏右,且外推的平均速度要比MTREC方法快;MIVAP方法在30 min以内前几个时次的预报效果略低于MTREC方法,但是30 min以后的预报评分明显优于MTREC方法,MIVAP方法的检验评分整体要优于MTREC方法。

     

降水对气溶胶粒子清除的参数化

本文主要讨论了碰并系数、雨滴谱和气溶胶谱对湿清除率的影响.在0.1μm相似文献   

气溶胶影响混合相对流云降水的数值模拟研究

利用一种新的异质冰相核化参数化方案,研究了当气溶胶同时作为云凝结核和冰核时,在不同高度输送对混合相对流云和降水的影响。结果发现,对于本文研究的理想混合相对流云,气溶胶在边界层的输送导致液滴数浓度明显增加,有效半径减小,霰粒的生长受到抑制,引起霰粒质量浓度降低;而气溶胶在对流层中层4～6km输送时,导致冰晶和霰粒数浓度明显增加。由于较多的冰晶引起更加快速的贝吉隆过程,使霰粒的质量浓度增加;气溶胶在对流层中层2～4km高度输送时冰相形成作用相对较弱,并引起霰粒的数浓度略微增加,由于霰粒的有效半径减小导致其质量浓度下降。气溶胶在不同高度的输送都导致液态和固态降水率降低,随着背景气溶胶数浓度的增加,气溶胶在0～2km、2～4km以及4～6km的输送分别导致累积降水量减少28％～64％、4％～44％和3％～46％,并且对降水的抑制效应及所在高度不同引起的降水差异随着背景气溶胶数浓度的增加而减小。     

云凝结核浓度对北京一次降水过程影响的数值模拟

利用WRF v3.6.1模式,采用Thompson云微物理参数化方案对北京奥运会期间的一次降水过程进行了模拟,通过3组数值试验对比分析了高、中、低云凝结核浓度对降水的影响。数值试验结果显示:(1)在云凝结核浓度较低的情况下,云凝结核浓度增加使24 h累积降水量增加,且增加的幅度相对较低;在云凝结浓度较高的情况下,云凝结核浓度增加使24 h累积降水量减少,且减少的幅度相对较高。(2)从地面雨强分布来看,不同的云凝结核浓度对暴雨、大雨、中雨、小雨的影响均体现在降水强度上,对降水位相的影响不显著。(3)云凝结核浓度的变化对低云量的影响与其对降水的影响相一致,故低云量是影响降水的一个重要因素。     

Impacts of aerosol chemical composition on microphysics and precipitation in deep convection

Aerosols affect precipitation by modifying cloud properties such as cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC). Aerosol effects on CDNC depend on aerosol properties such as number concentration, size spectrum, and chemical composition. This study focuses on the effects of aerosol chemical composition on CDNC and, thereby, precipitation in a mesoscale cloud ensemble (MCE) driven by deep convective clouds. The MCE was observed during the 1997 department of energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) summer experiment. Double-moment microphysics with explicit nucleation parameterization, able to take into account those three properties of aerosols, is used to investigate the effects of aerosol chemical composition on CDNC and precipitation. The effects of aerosol chemical compositions are investigated for both soluble and insoluble substances in aerosol particles. The effects of soluble substances are examined by varying mass fractions of two representative soluble components of aerosols in the continental air mass: sulfate and organics. The increase in organics with decreasing sulfate lowers critical supersaturation (S_c) and leads to higher CDNC. Higher CDNC results in smaller autoconversion of cloud liquid to rain. This provides more abundant cloud liquid as a source of evaporative cooling, leading to more intense downdrafts, low-level convergence, and updrafts. The resultant stronger updrafts produce more condensation and thus precipitation, as compared to the case of 100% sulfate aerosols. The conventional assumption of sulfate aerosol as a surrogate for the whole aerosol mass can be inapplicable for the case with the strong sources of organics. The less precipitation is simulated when an insoluble substance replaces organics as compared to when it replaces sulfate. When the effects of organics on the surface tension of droplet and solution term in the Köhler curve are deactivated by the insoluble substance, S_c is raised more than when the effects of sulfate on the solution term are deactivated by the insoluble substance. This leads to lower CDNC and, thus, larger autoconversion of cloud liquid to rain, providing less abundant cloud liquid as a source of evaporative cooling. The resultant less evaporative cooling produces less intense downdrafts, weaker low-level convergence, updrafts, condensation and, thereby, less precipitation in the case where organics is replaced by the insoluble substance than in the case where sulfate is replaced by the insoluble substance. The variation of precipitation caused by the change in the mass fraction between the soluble and insoluble substances is larger than that caused by the change in the mass fraction between the soluble substances.     

Study of method for synthetic precipitation data for ungauged sites using quantitative precipitation model

A method was developed to estimate a synthetic precipitation record for ungauged sites using irregular coarse observations. The proposed synthetic precipitation data were produced with ultrahigh hourly resolution on a regular 1 × 1 km grid. The proposed method was used to analyze selected real-time observational data collected in South Korea from 2010 to the end of 2014. The observed precipitation data were measured using the Automatic Weather System and Automated Synoptic Observing System. The principal objective of the proposed method was to estimate the additional effects of orography on precipitation introduced by ultrahigh- resolution (1 × 1 km) topography provided by a digital elevation model. The Global Forecast System analysis of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction was used for the upper-atmospheric conditions, necessary for estimating the orographic effects. Precipitation data from 48 of the more than 600 observation sites used in the study, which matched the grid points of the synthetic data, were not included in the synthetic data estimation. Instead, these data were used to evaluate the proposed method by direct comparison with the real observations at these sites. A bias score was investigated by comparison of the synthetic precipitation data with the observations. In this comparison, the number of Hit, False, Miss, and Correct results for 2010-2014 was 74738, 25778, 7544, and 367981, respectively. In the Hit cases, the bias score was 1.22 and the correlation coefficient was 0.74. The means of the differences between the synthetic data and the observations were 0.3, -3.9, -14.4, and -34.9 mm h^-1 and the root mean square errors (RMSEs) were 2.7, 8.3, 19.3, and 39.6 mm h^-1 for the categories of 0.5-10.0, 10.0-30.0, 30.0-50.0, and 50.0-100.0 mm h^-1, respectively. In addition, in each range, the 60% difference between the synthetic precipitation data and the observation data was -1.5 to +1.5, -5.0 to +5.0, -17.0 to +17.0, and -33.0 to +33.0 mm h^-1, respectively. Overall, the correlation coefficient of the synthetic precipitation data was > 0.7 for 43 of the 48 test stations and the RMSE was < 4 mm h^-1 at 31 stations. The results are significant at all evaluation stations at the 0.05 significance level.     

一次层状云系水分收支和降水机制的数值研究

对2002年10月18—20日河南省层状云系的水分收支和降水机制用MM5模式模拟的结果表明,河南省域以外的水物质主要通过西和南边界输送到区域内,19日降水主要时段总水物质通量在水平方向上为净流入。对河南省域水汽、水凝物和总水物质的水分平衡等式中各项的估算表明该区域水物质基本达到收支平衡。估算的河南省域总水物质降水效率、凝结率、凝华率和水凝物降水效率及水汽降水效率分别约33.1%、27.7%、13.1%、69.7%和31.1%,总水物质降水效率与水汽降水效率接近是由于参与的水物质总量中水汽占绝大部分。约58.2%以上的冰晶转化为雪,超过82.1%的雪融化,不到11.1%的雪转化为霰,霰粒子几乎完全融化。冰晶通过凝华过程增长。雪主要由冰晶转化产生,凝华增长率比撞冻增长率高得多。雨水由暖云和冷云过程产生和增长,雨水碰并云水量和冰粒子融化量对雨水的贡献相近,云雨自动转化量小。可见,在主要降水时段,降水是由冷云和暖云过程共同产生的。冰粒子凝华增长对雨水的贡献最大超过35%,撞冻增长的贡献最高不足12%,可见水汽对降水粒子增长重要。催化层、冰水混合层和液水层对降水的贡献分别约为15%—27%、45%—50%和23%—38%,表明此"催化-供给"云中冰粒子在冰水混合层的增长对降水的贡献相当大。     

Climatology of precipitation extremes in Estonia using the method of moving precipitation totals

A method of moving precipitation totals is described and applied for the analysis of precipitation extremes in Estonia. Numbers of extremely wet and extremely dry days and other indices of precipitation extremes were calculated using the daily precipitation data measured at 51 stations over Estonia during 1957–2009. Mean regularities of spatial and seasonal distribution were determined. Long-term changes were detected using Sen's method and Mann–Kendall test. The highest risk of heavy precipitation is in the regions of higher mean precipitation on the uplands and on the belt of higher precipitation in the western part of continental Estonia. Wet spells have their sharp maxima in July and August. The highest risk of droughts is observed in the coastal regions of West Estonia. In the coastal area, droughts appear mostly in the first half of summer, while in the eastern Estonia, they are usually observed during the second half of summer. Extreme precipitation events have become more frequent and intense. Statistically significant increasing trends were, first of all, found in the time series of winter extreme precipitation indices. In summer and autumn, trends existed in some indices, but in spring, there were no trends at all. There were no trends in time series of dryness indices in Estonia in 1957–2009.     

Observed changes in aerosol physical and optical properties before and after precipitation events

Precipitation scavenging of aerosol particles is an important removal process in the atmosphere that can change aerosol physical and optical properties. This paper analyzes the changes in aerosol physical and optical properties before and after four rain events using in situ observations of mass concentration, number concentration, particle size distribution, scattering and absorption coefficients of aerosols in June and July 2013 at the Xianghe comprehensive atmospheric observation station in China. The results show the effect of rain scavenging is related to the rain intensity and duration, the wind speed and direction. During the rain events, the temporal variation of aerosol number concentration was consistent with the variation in mass concentration, but their size-resolved scavenging ratios were different. After the rain events, the increase in aerosol mass concentration began with an increase in particles with diameter 0.8 μm [measured using an aerodynamic particle sizer(APS)], and fine particles with diameter 0.1 μm [measured using a scanning mobility particle sizer(SMPS)]. Rainfall was most efficient at removing particles with diameter ～0.6 μm and greater than 3.5 μm. The changes in peak values of the particle number distribution(measured using the SMPS) before and after the rain events reflect the strong scavenging effect on particles within the 100–120 nm size range. The variation patterns of aerosol scattering and absorption coefficients before and after the rain events were similar, but their scavenging ratios differed, which may have been related to the aerosol particle size distribution and chemical composition.