北太平洋中纬海温异常对中国东部夏季降水影响的可能途径

用 8 5 0 h Pau场分解为正、斜分量的方法研究了前期北太平洋中纬 ( 42 .5～5 2 .5°N,1 70°E～ 1 70°W)海温关键区海温异常对其后期中国东部夏季降水影响的可能途径。结果表明 ,前期海温关键区海温首先对其同期 85 0 h Pau场斜压波列施加影响 ,该斜压波列又对其后期斜压波列施加影响 ,最后此斜压波列影响中国东部夏季降水异常。     

北非感热年际变化与中国东部降水的遥相关

基于NCEP/NCAR月平均再分析资料和中国160站降水资料,根据春季全球54 a(1951—2004年)感热的变化特征,经研究发现北非是春季感热异常关键区,且北非春季的地表感热对中国东部夏季的降水存在着滞后影响,与华北地区和江淮流域的降水分别呈较好的正相关和负相关,当北非感热正异常时,华北地区降水异常偏少,江淮流域降水异常偏多;当北非感热负异常时,华北地区降水明显偏多,江淮流域降水明显偏少。北非春季感热对中国东部夏季降水的影响作用和物理机制有进一步研究的价值。     

Daily rainfall trend in the Valencia Region of Spain

Summary ?We have analyzed daily rainfall trends throughout the second half of the 20^th century in the western Mediterranean basin (Valencia Region, E of Spain). The area is characterized by high torrentiality, and during the second half of the 20^th century some of the highest daily rainfall values in the Mediterranean basin have been recorded. In this area, mean annual rainfall varies between 500 and 300 mm and is overwhelmingly dependent on just a few days of rain. Daily maximum rainfall varies on average from 120 mm day⁻¹ to 50 mm day⁻¹, and represents a mean of 17% (coastland) to 9% (inland) of annual rainfall. The 10 days in each year with the heaviest rainfall (called “higher events”) provide over 50% of the annual rainfall and can reach more than 400 mm on average. We compared the annual rainfall trend and the trend of higher and minor events defined by percentiles, both in volume and variability. We, therefore, tested whether annual rainfall changes depend on the trend of the higher (rainfall) events. To overlap spatial distribution of trends (i.e.: positive, no significant and negative trends) we have used cross-tab analysis. The results confirm the hypothesis that annual rainfall changes depend on changes found in just a few rainy events. Furthermore, in spite of their negative trend, higher events have increased their contribution to annual rainfall. As a consequence, although torrential events may have diminished in magnitude, future scenarios seem to be controlled by a limited number of rainy events which will become more and more variable year on year. The high spatial density of data used in this work, (97 observatories per 24.000 km², overall mean 1 observatory per 200 km²), suggests to us that extreme caution should be applied when analyzing regional and sub-regional changes in rainfall using GCM output, especially in areas of high torrentiality. Received August 1, 2002; revised November 11, 2002; accepted December 1, 2002 Published online May 19, 2003     

中国东部月降水量分布的统计特征

本文利用中国东部(105°E以东)110个站的30年(1953—1982用降水量资料,分析了月降水量分布的统计特征,经计算,月降水量的变差系数大多在0.5—1.0之间。大部分站点月降水量的频数分布呈较明显的正偏形式,但偏斜程度因时间、地点的不同而异。假设检验的结果表明:在统计意义下(α=0.05),各地都有一些站点的月降水记录遵从正态分布。这些站点的时空分布反映了我国东部干湿季明显的季风气候特点。各地遵从正态分布站点数较高的月份大体上与该地变差系数较小的月份相对应,而这些月份均位于各地的多雨时段。对于其它一些无法用正态分布拟合的月降水的频数分布,绝大部分可用三种偏斜分布模式较好地拟合。     

Decadal variation of summer rainfall in the yangtzehuaihe river valley and its relationship to atmospheric circulation anomalies over east asia and western north pacific

Decadal variations of summer rainfall during 1951 through 1990 are analyzed by using summer rainfall data of 160 stations in China. Four major patterns of decadal variations are identified. The decadal variations of summer rainfall showed northward shift in the eastern China from South China through the Yangtze-Huaihe River to North China. Summer rainfall in the Yangtze-Huaihe River valley underwent two obvious decadal transitions during the 40 years: one from rainy period to drought period in the end of the 1950’s, the other from drought period to rainy period in the late 1970’s. Correspondingly, the atmospheric circulation over East Asia through the western North Pacific showed two similar obvious transitions. The East Asian/ Pacific (EAP) pattern switched from high index to low index in the end of the 1950’s and from low index to high index in the late 1970’s, respectively. Hence, summer rainfall in the Yangtze-Huaihe River valley is closely associated with the EAP pattern not only in the interannual variation but also in the decadal variation.     

基于REOF的青藏高原东侧降水区划分析

本文运用青藏高原东侧35个基本站常规观测50年(1951～2000)年降水资料,采用REOF(旋转主分量)分析方法对高原东侧降水的区域性特征进行分析,把高原东侧分为七种气候模态,既是中-北部型、川东型、西部型、西北型、重庆型、西南型和南部型.根据这个结果,按照一定临界值,把高原东侧地区分为七个降水区.     

基于REOF的青藏高原东侧降水区划分析

本文运用青藏高原东侧35个基本站常规观测50年(1951~2000)年降水资料,采用REOF(旋转主分量)分析方法对高原东侧降水的区域性特征进行分析,把高原东侧分为七种气候模态,既是中-北部型、川东型、西部型、西北型、重庆型、西南型和南部型。根据这个结果,按照一定临界值,把高原东侧地区分为七个降水区。     

MJO对我国东部春季降水影响的分析

利用1982-2011年夏季（5-8月）中国气象观测站点逐日降水资料、NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料、NOAA逐日向外长波辐射和海表温度资料集,通过选取低频降水事件的方法,分析了华南夏季12-30 d持续性强降水事件的基本特征,然后利用位相合成法对持续性强降水期间伴随的低频大气环流型以及低频信号的来源和传播情况进行研究,同时也分析了低频海-气耦合过程对持续性强降水的影响。结果表明：（1）华南夏季降水具有显著的12-30 d低频振荡特征,持续性强降水事件在6月发生次数最多,低频降水期间的雨带自东南向西北传播。（2）在持续性强降水发生期间,华南及邻近海域低层受强大的低频气旋式环流控制,低频上升运动显著,而中国南海-菲律宾海一带则是强的低频反气旋式环流,其西侧向北的低频水汽输送不断将中国南海的水汽送至华南及邻近海域进行辐合上升。低层的低频信号来源于热带西太平洋和中国南海-菲律宾海一带低频振荡的西北向传播,同时伴随着西太平洋副热带高压明显的西伸东退过程。（3）在高层,华南北侧（22°-45°N,95°-130°E）区域强大的低频气旋式环流和孟加拉湾-中国南海一带的低频反气旋式环流相互配合,使华南高层处于强大的辐散环境中,从而加强了华南低层的辐合与低频上升运动,造成持续性强降水的增强。高层的低频信号来源于低频罗斯贝波列的东南向传播。（4）低频大气环流异常通过云辐射和热通量过程改变低频海表温度异常,而由大气强迫的低频海表温度异常通过影响低层大气的稳定性来对大气施加明显的反馈作用,该海-气耦合过程有利于大气低层低频信号向华南地区传播,从而影响了华南持续性强降水的发生、发展与结束。     

高原东侧突发性大暴雨过程中螺旋度的诊断分析

利用MM5模式模拟输出结果,对2002年6月8-9日发生在陕西省和四川北部的一次突发性大暴雨过程进行了螺旋度诊断分析.结果表明:暴雨区附近总存在一对紧邻的大小(低层)或正负(中层)螺旋度中心,低层螺旋度正值区强度远大于中高层螺旋度正负值区,对流层中层正负中心的轴线随高度呈逆时针旋转,相应的垂直结构是一对正负相伴的螺旋度柱.当暴雨区东侧正螺旋度突然向高层伸展,西侧伴有负螺旋度发展,且两中心间等值线变密集时,暴雨开始,大小(正负)螺旋度最强及其间等值线最紧密时,暴雨达到最强盛时期,而且暴雨就发生在两螺旋度之间偏大值中心的等值线密集区.进一步分析表明:螺旋度发生发展的主要贡献者是水平速度和水平速度的垂直切变.     

Principal Component Analysis of precipitation and rainfall regionalization in Spain

Summary A T-mode Principal Component Analysis (PCA) based on a network including 68 pluviometric gauges and their 12 mean monthly amounts of rainfall is attempted in order to describe the main patterns governing precipitation in Spain. The procedure is applied to a 12 × 12 intermonth covariance matrix; the unrotated components and two additional solutions deduced after varimax and oblimin rotations are presented and discussed. In all cases component scores are computed and their spatial distribution is discussed. Two regionalizations of Spanish rainfall are then obtained and compared in terms of group homogeneity. There follows a discussion concerning the main pluviometric characteristics of each region deduced from the best division.With 7 Figures     

Observed and GCM simulated decadal variability of monsoon rainfall in east China

Variability and associated mechanisms of summer rainfall over east China are identified and described using both observations and a general circulation model (GCM) simulation. The observations include two data sets: the 90-station, 1470–1988 annual drought/flood index and the 60-station, 1889–1988 monthly mean precipitation measurements. The GCM data set is a 100-year equilibrium simulation of the present climate. Spectra of the drought/flood index indicate decadal cycles which decrease from north (47 y) to south (21 y). Correlation coefficients show decadal variability in the relationship between index values along the Yangtse River valley and those over northeast and southeast China. Analysis of the measured data confirms this result; for example, the correlation was small during 1889–1918, but significantly negative during 1930–1959. When compared with precipitation measurements, the GCM better simulates monthly means and variances along the Yangtse River valley. Three distinct 30-year periods of interannual variability in summer rainfall are found over this area. During each period, rainfall is negatively correlated with spring surface temperature over a remote region and is identified with variations in a specific component of the east Asian monsoon circulation: (1) when Eurasian temperatures decrease, the thermal contrast across the Mei-Yu front increases and frontal rainfall intensities; (2) lower temperatures over the Sea of Japan/northwest Pacific Ocean are identified with enhanced easterly flow, moisture transport and rainfall; (3) when tropical east Pacific Ocean temperatures decrease, rainfall associated with the low latitude monsoon trough increases. Given that the GCM generates decadal changes in the relationship between the physical mechanisms, the east Asian monsoon and planetary general circulations and east China rainfall, future studies should focus on the predictability of these changes with the use of improved and much longer GCM simulations.     

华北一次强降水过程的分阶段对比分析

利用GPS可降水量、多普勒天气雷达和地面加密自动站等高时空分辨率资料,对2011年6月23-24日发生在京津冀的强降水天气过程的不同阶段进行了对比分析.结果表明:(1)第一阶段降水为时间短、强度大的积状云对流降水;GPS可降水量的峰值与强降水对应,在降水之前6h左右会有GPS可降水量峰值出现;在空间分布上,高值中心的演变表现为东移南压趋势.(2)第二阶段降水表现为持续时间较长的系统性降水;雷达回波以大面积层状云降水回波为主;此阶段的GPS可降水量长时间维持在高值阶段,空间分布上GPS可降水量等值线“南高北低”并逐渐南压,西部GPS可降水量明显偏高.(3)在液态水与气态水对比上,雷达VIL随时间的变化不连续,而GPS可降水量表现为连续性演变,二者的峰值或高值对应较好,二者均可反映降水出现时间和降水性质,其中雷达VIL大值与降水出现时段吻合得好,而GPS可降水量的大小和演变趋势可以提前预示降水的出现时间和降水性质,对降水天气预报有指示意义.     

Anomalies in the tropics associated with the heavy rainfall in east asia during the summer of 1998

1.IntroductionInthesummerof1998,theYangtzeRiverbasin,includingNenjiangRiverValleyinNortheastChinasufferedaseverelarge--scalefloodonlynexttothatinthesummerof1954inthiscentury.Thefloodcausedapproximatelythedeathof3000individualsandthedirecteconomicdamageof250billionRMByuans(Yan,1998).Thisextremedisasterpromptedaseriesofimmediatestudiesonit(e.g.,Iluangetal.,1998;Taoetal.,1998).TheevolutionoftheEastAsiansupsmermonsoonshowsagreatvariabilityfromyeartoOThisstudywassupportedbytheNationalNatura…     

Large scale aspects of India-China summer monsoon rainfall

This study investigates the dominant modes of variability in monthly and seasonal rainfall over the India-China region mainly through Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis. The EOFs have shown that whereas the rain-fall over India varies as one coherent zone, that over China varies in east-west oriented bands. The influence of this banded structure extends well into India.Relationship of rainfall with large scale parameters such as the subtropical ridge over the Indian and the western Pacific regions, Southern Oscillation, the Northern Hemispheric surface air temperature and stratospheric winds have also been investigated. These results show that the rainfall over the area around 40oN, 110oE over China is highly related with rainfall over India. The subtropical ridge over the Indian region is an important predictor over India as well as over the northern China legion.     

有关暴雨分析预报的一些问题

近二十年来,大气科学发展很快。为了使我国广大气象工作者对大气科学各个领域的现状和近期内的发展趋势有所了介,本刊从今年第一期起开辟专栏,就大气科学中某一领域或菜一重要专题的任务、目前水平、存在问题、动向等方面作比较全面的介绍和评述,并开展讨论。希望读者踊跃撰写稿件,提出意见和要求,以不断改进工作,把专栏办得更加生动活泼。     

Basic statistical characteristics of hourly rainfall amounts in Barcelona (Spain)

Summary In order to derive some statistical rainfall characteristics applicable to hydrology, data of continuous rainfall rate recordings of a Jardí gauge installed in Barcelona (Spain) have been converted to an hourly precipitation series. From these data, four useful distributions have been obtained and further compared with some theoretical models. It has been found that the duration of events is distributed exponentially. The duration of rainless intervals follow a generalized Pareto distribution, and the cumulative rainfall in the cumulative rain duration is beta distributed. Concerning the distribution of rain amounts, two models can be accepted, depending on the duration of the events. Comparison with a similar study carried out in Farnborough (United Kingdom) indicates that the events are shorter and that the amounts of rain collected in short events are larger in Barcelona.This work was supported by the DGICYT (Project NAT91-0596) and the CCE (Project PL 910104 Environment).With 7 Figures     

重力波对青藏高原东侧一次暴雨过程的影响

采用WRF（weather research and forecasting）模式输出资料、NCEP/NCAR1°×1°再分析资料以及地面站降水资料,对2009年7月31日至8月1日四川省一次暴雨过程进行了分析。结果表明：水汽辐合区与降水区基本一致;散度场、水汽通量和水汽通量散度对降水具有较好的指示作用。在降水之前的6h中,降水中心上空的大气层结基本稳定,这种层结条件并不利于对流运动发生和发展;但是通过对散度场、非线性平衡方程和理查森数的分析,发现在暴雨开始前存在着中尺度重力波,它激发了对流运动的发展,而对流运动对暴雨的发展起到了主要作用。这说明,在整个暴雨过程中,只有同时考虑中尺度重力波与对流运动的相互作用,才能较完整地解释雨带的强度和特征得以发展和维持的原因。     

铁岭市中心城区降雨径流氨氮污染特征初步研究

为了解铁岭市中心城区降雨形成径流后氨氮污染特征,选取城区内2个典型排污沟为研究对象,采用野外采样与室内分析相结合的方法,利用2005年7月的一场降雨过程实测降雨数据,对氨氮浓度进行对比分析。结果表明:在降雨初期,铁岭市中心城区降雨径流中氨氮浓度迅速上升,并很快达到峰值。随着降雨历时的延长,氨氮浓度逐渐下降并趋于稳定。     

Variation in the spatial organisation of daily rainfall during the north Queensland wet seasons, 1979–82

Summary Daily rainfall correlation fields are examined for the north Queensland wet season months (November-March) for four consecutive years. Considerable monthly variation in correlation patterns is exhibited which is shown to be closely associated with the nature of the prevailing atmospheric circulation. Daily rainfall patterns are characteristically sporadic during the early part of the wet season (November and December), but later, and during January in particular, rainfall is more widespread and better organised. In February and March the degree of organisation decreases markedly as rainfall activity along the monsoon trough moves progressively northwards. During the period January to March and for days on which the monsoon trough is particularly active, there is a tendency for rainfall to be preferentially organised along marked axes. Axial eccentricity in correlation fields is related to orientation of the monsoon through when it is in the north of the region, and is also influenced by the trend of the east coast and adjacent high ground.

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Zusammenfassung Es werden Korrelationsfelder des täglichen Niederschlags für die Regenzeit Nordqueenslands (November-März) in vier aufeinanderfolgenden Jahren untersucht. Es zeigt sich eine bemerkenswerte monatliche Variation der Korrelationsmuster, die mit der vorherrschenden Zirkulation zusammenhängt. Zu Beginn der Regenzeit (November und Dezember) weisen die täglichen Niederschlagsmuster meist eine punktuelle Charakteristik auf, später jedoch, und besonders im Januar ist das Niederschlagsgebiet ausgedehnter und zusammenhängender. Der Grad der Organisation sinkt im Februar und März merklich, wenn die Niederschlagszone entlang des Monsuntroges nach Norden fortschreitet. In der Periode Januar bis März und an Tagen mit hoher monsunaler Aktivität scheint sich der Niederschlag vorzugsweise entlang ausgeprägter Achsen zu entwickeln. Die axiale Exzentrizität in den Korrelationsfeldern steht in Beziehung mit der Orientierung des Monsuntroges, wenn sich dieser nördlich der Region befindet und wird ebenfalls von der Richtung der Küstenlinie und des angrenzenden Hochlandes beeinflußt.

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The Bureau of Meteorology (1978) defined a tropical cyclone as a non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclonic, rotational low pressure system of tropical origin, in which 10-minute mean winds of at least gale force 63 km/h occur, the belt of maximum winds being in the vicinity of the system's centre.

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A tropical depression is defined as a closed, cyclonic, rotational system of tropical origin, in which mean winds at any point within the closed system do not exceed gale force (Lourensz, 1981).

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With 12 Figures