Future projection of East China Sea temperature by dynamic downscaling of the IPCC_AR4 CCSM3 model result

Future temperature distributions of the marginal Chinese seas are studied by dynamic downscaling of global CCSM3 IPCC_AR4 scenario runs.Different forcing fields from 2080-2099 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios(SRES) B1,A1,and A2 to 1980-1999 20C3M are averaged and superimposed on CORE2 and SODA2.2.4 data to force high-resolution regional future simulations using the Regional Ocean Modeling System(ROMS).Volume transport increments in downscaling simulation support the CCSM3 result that with a weakening subtropical gyre circulation,the Kuroshio Current in the East China Sea(ECS) is possibly strengthened under the global warming scheme.This mostly relates to local wind change,whereby the summer monsoon is strengthened and winter monsoon weakened.Future temperature fluxes and their seasonal variations are larger than in the CCSM3 result.Downscaling 100 years’ temperature increments are comparable to the CCSM3,with a minimum in B1 scenario of 1.2-2.0°C and a maximum in A2 scenario of 2.5-4.5°C.More detailed temperature distributions are shown in the downscaling simulation.Larger increments are in the Bohai Sea and middle Yellow Sea,and smaller increments near the southeast coast of China,west coast of Korea,and southern ECS.There is a reduction of advective heat north of Taiwan Island and west of Tsushima in summer,and along the southern part of the Yellow Sea warm current in winter.There is enhancement of advective heat in the northern Yellow Sea in winter,related to the delicate temperature increment distribution.At 50 meter depth,the Yellow Sea cold water mass is destroyed.Our simulations suggest that in the formation season of the cold water mass,regional temperature is higher in the future and the water remains at the bottom until next summer.In summer,the mixed layer is deeper,making it much easier for the strengthened surface heat flux to penetrate to the bottom of this water.     

Characteristics of Thermal and Geopotential Height Differences Between Continent and Ocean and Its Role in the Strength of the Asian Summer Monsoon

The interdecadal factors affecting the summer monsoon winds over Somalia and the South China Sea were studied. Global geopotential heights and wind velocity fields of the 850-hPa and 200-hPa pressure levels, as well as sea surface temperature anomaly data and correlation coefficients were analyzed. The monsoons over Somalia and the South China Sea were found to be two different monsoon systems, operating on different mechanisms and being affected by different ocean-atmosphere interactions. The intensity of the Asian subtropical summer monsoon is influenced by the intensity of the summer monsoon over Somalia in the month of June and by the intensity of the summer monsoon over the South China Sea in the months of June and July. The summer monsoon wind strength over Somalia is affected by regional factors, such as the heating of the Tibetan plateau, and by global mechanisms, such as the subtropical heat exchange with Antarctica. The summer monsoon over the South China Sea is affected by different ocean-atmosphere interactions. The Somalia and subtropical summer monsoons have wind blowing down the pressure gradient from area over ocean to that over land, like typical summer monsoons. The South China Sea summer monsoon has winds that blow down the pressure gradient from area over land to that over ocean. The South China Sea summer monsoon is affected by the Kuroshio Current off the east coast of Japan.     

A NUMERICAL STUDY OF THE WINTERTIME CIRCULATION IN THE BOHAI AND HUANGHAI SEAS

The paper presents a numerical two-dimensional model (with a realistic sea basin and wind fields as exter nal forcing) to simulate the basic features of the wintertime circulation in the Bohai and Huanghai (Yellow) Seas (BHS) and to show how the circulation can be driven by wind. The main results can be summarized as follows (1) The basic features of the BHS wintertime circulation can be depicted by the wind-driven barotropi'c motion. (2) The traditionally named Huanghai Sea Warm Current (HSWC) is actually generated by the north wind field, at least in winter. (3) The southward coastal current off the Korean west coast plays a more significant role in the southern Huanghai Sea wintertime circulation than traditionally believed. (4) Though the coastal landform and bottom topography play important roles in the wintertime BHS circulation pattern, the wind is a primary forcing.     

Observational evidence of the Yellow Sea warm current

The Yellow Sea Warm Current (YSWC) is one of the principal currents in the Yellow Sea in winter. Former examinations on current activity in the Yellow Sea have not observed a stable YSWC because of the positioning of current meters. To further understand the YSWC, a research cruise in the southern Yellow Sea was carried out in the winter of 2006/2007. Five moorings with bottom-mounted acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCP) were deployed on the western side of the central trough of the Yellow Sea. The existence and distributional features of the YSWC were studied by analyzing three ADCP moorings in the path of the YSWC in conjunction with conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD) data over the observed area in the southern Yellow Sea. The results show the following. (1) The upper layer of the YSWC is strongly influenced by winter cold surge; its direction and speed often vary along a south-north axis when strong cold surges arrive from the north. (2) The YSWC near the bottom layer is a stable northwest flowing current with a speed of 4 to 10 cm/s. By combining the analyses of the CTD data, we speculate that the core of the YSWC may lie near the bottom. (3) On a monthly average timescale, the YSWC is stably oriented with northward flow from the sea surface to the sea floor.     

Seasonal evolution of circulation and thermal structure in the Yellow Sea

In this paper, the authors used the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) to simulate the seasonal evolutions of circulation and thermal structure in the Yellow Sea. The simulated circulation showed that the Yellow Sea Warm Current (YSWC) was a compensation current of monsoon-driven current, and that in winter, the YSWC became stronger with depth, and could flow across the Bohai Strait in the north. Sensitivity and controlling tests led to the following conclusions, In winter, the direction of the Yellow Sea Coastal Current in the surface layer was controlled partly by tide instead of wind, In summer, a cyclonic horizontal gyre existed in the middle and eastern parts of the Yellow Sea below 10 m. The downwelling in upper layer and upwelling in lower layer were somehow similar to Hu et al. (1991) conceptual model. The calculated thermal structure showed an obvious northward extending YSWC tongue in winter, its position and coverage of the Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass in summer.     

Climatology and seasonal variability of satellite-derived chlorophyll a around the Shandong Peninsula

The chlorophyll a(Chl a) is an important indicator of marine ecosystems. The spatiotemporal variation of the Chl a greatly aff ects the mariculture and marine ranching in coastal waters of the Shandong Peninsula. In the current study, the climatology and seasonal variability of surface Chl-a concentration around the Shandong Peninsula are investigated based on 16 years(December 2002–November 2018) of satellite observations. The results indicate that the annual mean Chl-a concentration is greater in the Bohai Sea than in the Yellow Sea and decreases from coastal waters to off shore waters. The highest Chl-a concentrations are found in Laizhou Bay(4.2–8.0 mg/m 3), Haizhou Bay(4.2–5.9 mg/m 3) and the northeast coast of the Shandong Peninsula(4.4–5.0 mg/m 3), resulting from the combined eff ects of the intense riverine input and long residence time caused by the concave shape of the coastline. The seasonal Chl-a concentration shows a signifi cant spatial variation. The Chl-a concentrations in these three subregions generally exhibit an annual maximum in August/September, due to the combined eff ects of sea surface temperature, river discharge and sea surface wind. In the southeast coast region, however, the Chl-a concentration is lowest throughout the year and reaches a maximum in February with a minimum in July, forced by the seasonal evolution of the Yellow Sea Cold Water and monsoon winds. The interannual Chl-a concentration trends vary among regions and seasons. There are signifi cant increasing trends over a large area around Haizhou Bay from winter to summer, which are mainly caused by the rising sea surface temperature and eutrophication. In other coastal areas, the Chl-a concentration shows decreasing trends, which are clearest in summer and induced by the weakening land rainfall. This study highlights the diff erences in the Chl-a dynamics among regions around the Shandong Peninsula and is helpful for further studies of coupled physical-ecological-human interactions at multiple scales.     

Numerical simulation of the structure and variation of upwelling off the east coast of Hainan Island using QuikSCAT winds

The spatial structure and variation of the upwelling in the waters east and northeast of Hainan Island, China during 2000-2007 were investigated using a nested high-resolution Princeton Ocean Model (POM) forced by QuikSCAT winds. The model produced good simulations of the summer upwelling and the seasonal and annual variability. Strong upwelling occurs from mid-July to mid-August with a peak east of Hainan Island associated with the southwesterly monsoon in the South China Sea. Sensitivity experiments indicated that when the local wind stress controls the variability of the upwelling, the large-scale circulation significantly enhances the upwelling northeast of Hainan Island by inducing a local upwelling and transporting cold water northeast-ward along the island’s east coast. The joint effects of the local wind stress and large-scale circulation result in stronger upwelling northeast of Hainan Island. This implies that the annual variation of the upwelling northeast of Hainan Island is controlled not only by the local alongshore wind stress but also by the large-scale circulation. This result will help us investigate the decadal variation of the upwelling in this region in the future.     

Study on numerical simulation and dynamic mechanism of winter-time circulation in the eastern China seas

An MOM2 based 3-dimentional prognostic baroclinic Z-ordinate model was established to study the circulation in eastern China seas, considering the topography, inflow and outflow on the open boundary, wind stress, temperature and salinity exchange on the sea surface. The results were consistent with observation and showed that the Kuroshio intrudes in large scale into the East China Sea continental shelf East China, during which its water is exchanged ceaselessly with outer sea water along Ryukyu Island. The Tsushima Warm Current is derived from several sources, a branch of the Kuroshio, part of the Taiwan Warm Current, and Yellow Sea mixed water coming from the west of Cheju Island. The water from the west of Cheju Island contributes approximately 13% of the Isushima Warm Current total transport through the Korea Strait. The circulation in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea is basically cyclonic circulation, and is comprised of coastal currents and the Yellow Sea Warm Current. Besides simulation of the real circulation, numerical experiments were conducted to study the dynamic mechanism. The numerical experiments indicated that wind directly drives the East China Sea and Yellow Sea Coastal Currents, and strengthens the Korea Coastal Current and Yellow Sea Warm Current. In the no wind case, the kinetic energy of the coastal current area and main YSWC area is only 1% of that of the wind case.Numerical experiments also showed that the Tsushima Warm Current is of great importance to the formation of the Korea Coastal Current and Yellow Sea Warm Current.     

Barotropic current fluctuations coupled with sea level drawdown in Yellow and Bohai Seas

Sub-tidal barotropic current variations coupled with residual sea level fluctuation in the Bohai and Yellow Seas during wintertime are addressed in this study.The temporal evolution and spatial distribution of current fluctuation are investigated using moored acoustic Doppler current profiler data in a three-dimensional numerical model.It is found that a southward current followed by a northward current occurred in the northern Yellow Sea during the fluctuation,concurrent with a significant outflow followed by inflow through the Bohai Strait.The process is consistent from surface to bottom and is coupled with remarkable residual sea level fluctuation.This quasi three-day fluctuation with amplitude 0.2-0.3 m/s leads to 1 m/1.2 m drawdown in the northern Yellow and Bohai Seas,respectively,strongly influencing water exchange between those seas.Because this a prominent feature in the seas,it is necessary to evaluate its effect on fluctuation during winter in future studies,in particular,the northward current during the recovery phase of sea level in the Bohai and Yellow Seas regarding seasonal variation.     

Interpretation of sea surface wind interannual vector EOFs over the China seas

Using interpolation and averaging methods, we analyzed the sea surface wind data obtained from December 1992 to November 2008 by the scatterometers ERS-1, ERS-2, and QuikSCAT in the area of 2°N–39 °N, 105°E–130°E, and we reported the monthly mean distributions of the sea surface wind field. A vector empirical orthogonal function (VEOF) method was employed to study the data and three temporal and spatial patterns were obtained. The first interannual VEOF accounts for 26% of the interannual variance and displays the interannual variability of the East Asian monsoon. The second interannual VEOF accounts for 21% of the variance and reflects the response of China sea winds to El Nio events. The temporal mode of VEOF-2 is in good agreement with the curve of the Nio 3.4 index with a four-month lag. The spatial mode of VEOF-2 indicates that four months after an El Nio event, the southwesterly anomalous winds over the northern South China Sea, the East China Sea, the Yellow Sea, and the Bohai Sea can weaken the prevailing winds in winter, and can strengthen the prevailing winds in summer. The third interannual VEOF accounts for 10% of the variance and also reflects the influence of the ENSO events to China Sea winds. The temporal mode of VEOF-3 is similar to the curve of the Southern Oscillation Index. The spatial mode of VEOF-3 shows that the northeasterly anomalous winds over the South China Sea and the southern part of the East China Sea can weaken the prevailing winds, and southwesterly anomalous winds over the northern part of the East China Sea, the Yellow Sea, and the Bohai Sea can strengthen the prevailing winds when El Nio occurs in winter. If El Nio happens in summer, the reverse is true.     

COASTAL UPWELLING AND COASTAL JETS IN CONTINUOUSLY STRATIFIED SEAS

Nonlinear numerical models of continuously stratified seas are developed for vertical sections to study the mechanism of coastal upwelling and coastal jets in two kinds of seas: the so-called finite or closed sea bounded by two vertical coastal coasts, without elevation of sea surface, but with a flat bottom; and the semi-infinite sea bounded by only one vertical coast, with both an elevation of sea surface and a flat or inclined bottom. Constant wind stress in the first case, and constant wind stress or negative wind stress curl in the second case, are abruptly imposed. The key procedure for the mathematical analysis is to calculate the horizontal pressure gradient first by a special treatment. In thefirst case, the variation of horizontal components of velocity is changed with time to show threesuccessive time intervals. The results show that the width of baroclinic jets depends upon (oS)1/2, andthat distribution of isopycnic lines delineates the warm and cold regions. The relative importance of each     

Simulated circulations off the Changjiang （Yangtze） River mouthin spring and autumn

The circulations off the Changjiang mouth in May and November were simulatedby a three dimension numerical model with monthly averaged parameters of dynamic factors in this paper. The area covers the East China Sea (ECS), Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea. Simulated results show that the circulation off the Changjiang mouth in spring and autumn is mainly the Changjiang runoff and Taiwan Warm Current (TWC). The Changjlang discharge is much larger in May than in November, and the wind is westward in May, and southward in November offthe Changjiang mouth. The runoff in May branches in three parts, one eastward flows, the other two flow northward and southward along the Subei and Zhejiang coast respectively. The Changjiang diluted water expands eastward off the mouth, and forms a strong salinity front near the mouth. Surface circulation in autumn is similar to that in winter, the runoff southward flows along the coast, and the northward flowing TWC becomes weaker compared to that in spring and summer. The bottom circulations in May and November are mainly the runoff near the mouth and the TWC off the mouth, and the runoff and TWC are greater in May than in November.     

Seasonal cycle of topography in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea and its relationships with atmospheric forcing and oceanic adjustment based on altimetry data

Seasonal cycle is the most significant signals of topography and circulation in the Bohai Sea (BS)and Yellow Sea (YS) forced by prevailing monsoon and is still poorly understood due to lack of data in their interiors. In the present study, seasonal cycles of topography in the BS and YS and its relationship with atmospheric forcing and oceanic adjustment were examined and discussed using TOPEX/Poseidon and ERS-I/2 Sea Level Anomalies (SLA) data. Analyses revealed complicated seasonal cycles of topography composed mainly of 2 REOF modes, the winter-summer mode (WlM) and spring-autumn mode (SAM). The WlM with action center in the BS displayed peak and southward pressure gradient in July, and valley and northward pressure gradient in January, which is obviously the direct response to monsoon with about l-month response time. The SAM with action center in the western south YS displayed peak and northward pressure gradient in October and valley and southward pressure gradient in April. After the mature period of monsoon, the action center in the BS becam eweakened while that in the western south YS became strengthened because of regional convergence or divergence induced by seasonal variations of the Taiwan Warm Current and Yellow Sea Coastal Current. The direct response of topography to monsoon resulted in the WIM, while oceanic adjustment of topography played an important role in the forming of the SAM.     

A steady model on upweling in a strait

Hsueh and O Brien (1971) proposed a model on coastal upwelling induced by alongshore current. Their model is two - dimensional .steady , f - plane , linear and homogeneous with constant depth , in which wind effect was not considered . In the present paper, we proposed a steady model on upwelling in a strait with alongshore boundary current and wind applied on the surface. The following conclusions have been drawn.1 . Alongshore boundary current contributes more to upwelling than wind near the right coast.2. Alongshore boundary current influence can reach to about 70 km away from the right coast.3. Upwelling in the left half of the strait is mainly produced by wind .4. Under certain conditions, the combined action of wind and alongshore boundary current can produce upwelling in the middle of the strait.     

Counter-Wind Deep Current in the Northern Beibu Gulf in Boreal Winter

The Beibu Gulf is at an important geographical location and rich in gas, oil and biological resources. The observed currents showed that the current in the upper layer was opposite to that in the lower layer in boreal winter in the northern Beibu Gulf and it was northeastward in the lower layer. This northeastward current was reproduced by a 3 D baroclinic model in this study. It's found that the counter-wind deep current(referred to as ‘CWDC' hereinafter) strengthened from September to November but weakened from December to the following February. A closed meridional circulation in vertical direction was found in the northern Beibu Gulf, including CWDC, surface southwestward current, an upwelling, and a downwelling. The temporal variation process of the meridional circulation was similar to that of CWDC, with strength and range stronger in November and December than in other four months. Similar to the variation process of CWDC, the monsoon wind changed from weak easterly wind in September to strong northeasterly wind in November and December, and it was transformed into weak southeasterly wind in February again. The sensitive experiments showed that CWDC and the meridional circulation were controlled by the monsoon wind and were adjusted by heat flux-and tide-induced mixing, respectively. According to the momentum balance equation, it can be revealed the counter-wind deep current is a compensation current which is induced by the surface elevation gradient balanced by the Coriolis force, vertical diffusion and baroclinic pressure gradient.     

A numerical study on the density driven circulation in the Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass

The circulation of Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass(YSCWM) in the Southern Yellow Sea is investigated using a diagnostic 2D MITgcm model. The resolution of the computational grid is 900 m in the horizontal and 2 m in the vertical where an initial temperature distribution corresponding to a typical measured Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass was applied. The existence of YSCWM that causes fluid density difference, is shown to produce counter-rotating cyclonic horizontal eddies in the surface layer: the inner one is anti-cyclonic(clockwise) and relatively weaker(8–10 cm s-1) while the outer one is cyclonic(anti-clockwise) and much stronger(15–20 cm s-1). This result is consistent with the surface pattern observed by Pang et al.(2004), who has shown that a mesoscale anti-cyclonic eddy(clockwise) exists in the upper layer of central southern Yellow Sea, and a basin-scale cyclonic(anticlockwise) gyre lies outside of the anti-cyclonic eddy, based on the trajectories and drifting velocities of 23 drifters. Below the thermocline, there is an anti-cyclonic(clockwise) circulation. This complex current eddy system is considered to be capable of trapping suspended sediments and depositing them near the front between YSCWM and the coastal waters off the Subei coast, providing an explanation on the sediment depth and size distribution of mud patches in the Southern Yellow Sea. Moreover, sensitive test scenarios indicate that variations of bottom friction do not substantially change the main features of the circulation structure, but will reduce the bottom current velocity, increase the surface current velocity and weaken the upwelling around the frontal area.     

INFLUENCES OF WIND ON VERTICAL STRUCTURES OF TEMPERATURE AND SALINITY, AND UPWELLING OFF ZHEJIANG COAST IN SUMMER

In this paper the influences of short-term wind on vertical structures of temperature and salinity, and the upwelling off the Zhejiang coast are studied on the basis of hydrographic data and wind near the coast in Summer (1959-1979). It is pointed out that the variations of vertical distributions of temperature and salinity, and upwelling in this region are closely related to short-term (several days to a week) variation of wind observed. The occurrence of double thermocline, a special oceanographic phenomenon, is partially related to unstable SSW wind field. SSW and NE winds in June are two (dynamic factors making intermediate warm water form or disappear.     

Low-frequency variations in primary production in the Oman upwelling zone associated with monsoon winds

Thirteen-year satellite-derived data are used to investigate the temporal variability of net primary production (NPP) in the Oman upwelling zone and its potential forcing mechanisms. The NPP in the Oman upwelling zone is characterized by an abnormal decrease during El Ni o events. Such an NPP decrease may be related to El Ni o-driven anomalous summertime weak wind. During the summer following El Ni o, the anomalous northeasterly wind forced by southwest Indian Ocean warming weakens the southwest monsoon and warms the Arabian Sea. The abnormal wind weakens the coastal Ekman transport, offshore Ekman pumping and horizontal advection, resulting in reduced upward nutrient supply to the euphotic zone. A slightly declining trend in NPP after 2000 associated with a gradual decrease in surface monsoon winds is discussed.     

DETERMINATION OF GEOSTROPHIC FLOW BY APPLYING THE PRINCIPLE OF MINIMUM ENERGY AND THE INVERSE METHOD

This article gives a computing method to calculate the geostrophic current. The fact that kinetic energy of geostrophic motion and geostrophic potential energy reach minimum simultaneously, Fomin's "principle of minimum kinetic energy" is equivalent to the principle of minimum geostrophic potential energy . We concluded that horizontal geostrophic velocities at different depths are along the same direction . Combining our method with C. Wunsch's inverse method we can obtain the velocity components along and normal to the hydrographic sections . We used and analysed CTD and current meter data of " Experiment No . 3 " exploration, December 1985-January 1986, in the west Pacific Ocean - Philippine area.     

PREDICTION OF OCEAN SURFACE CURRENT VELOCITY AND APPLICATION TO METEOROLOGICAL NAVIGATION IN THE NORTH PACIFIC

On the basis of an understanding of the ocean current produced under the combined forces of wind stress over the sea surface and horizontal pressure gradient force caused by the uneven distribution of seawater density and the elevation of sea surface , we obtained the unsteady analytic solution of the variation with time of ocean surface current velocity corresponding to the time variation of the above two forces , and the unsteady analytic solution for variation of seawater density with time by considering only the vertical turbulence . To meet different needs, the above solutions may be written in two forms for short and long time predictions . After some simplification the analytic solution was used to predict surface ocean current velocity for meteorological -navigation in the North Pacific . The monthly average current field was first obtained to get the necessary parameters for selecting the initial shipping route in the North Pacific and Bohai and Yellow Seas . The wind current field was then cal