School vulnerability to disaster: examination of school closure,demographic, and exposure factors in Hurricane Ike’s wind swath

Damage and destruction to schools from climate-related disasters can have significant and lasting impacts on curriculum and educational programs, educational attainment, and future income-earning potential of affected students. As such, assessing the potential impact of hazards is crucial to the ability of individuals, households, and communities to respond to natural disasters, extreme events, and economic crises. Yet, few studies have focused on assessing the vulnerability of schools in coastal regions of the USA. Using Hurricane Ike’s tropical storm wind swath in the State of Texas as our study area, we: (1) assessed the spatial distribution patterns of school closures and (2) tested the relationship between school closure and vulnerability factors (namely physical exposure and school demographics) using zero-inflated negative binomial regression models. The regression results show that higher probabilities of hurricane strikes, more urbanized school districts, and school districts located in coastal counties on the right side of Ike’s path have significant positive associations with an increase in the number of school closure days. Socioeconomic characteristics were not significantly associated with the number of days closed, with the exception of proportion of Hispanic youth in schools, a result which is not supported by the social vulnerability literature. At a practical level, understanding how hurricanes may adversely impact schools is important for developing appropriate preparedness, mitigation, recovery, and adaptation strategies. For example, school districts on the right side of the hurricane track can plan in advance for potential damage and destruction. The ability of a community to respond to future natural disasters, extreme events, and economic crises depends in part on mitigating these adverse effects.     

Early dismissals in public schools on potential severe weather days

Survey responses from 76 public school districts in Mississippi and Alabama were analyzed along with county-level demographics, tornado-path data, and tornado warning data to investigate the emerging trend of early dismissals. No two districts had identical responses, but the concern of safety was consistently mentioned. The highest number of reported dismissals would have resulted in a loss of <2 % of total annual class time. The rates of dismissals reported by districts were compared with tornado warning days to identify potential over-dismissal, which was found in 51 % of districts. Rates of dismissal and over-dismissal were analyzed with variables from survey responses, tornado warning data, tornado-path data, and county census data to determine variables that influence differences among districts. Various stepwise models indicate that districts with higher poverty levels could be less likely to dismiss. Permutation tests and stepwise models show that early dismissal and over-dismissal are more likely when a district: (1) has a higher number of killer tornadoes in the last 5 years, (2) has a higher number of recent injury-causing tornadoes, (3) has a higher number of total killer tornadoes since 1950, (4) is in a smaller county, (5) has dismissal decisions made by a team, (6) is a county district rather than a city district, and (7) has a lower level of poverty. The inverse relationship with poverty suggests that schools in poorer areas may be holding students in school because they consider them to be safer there than at home, or it could be due to a lack of resources at the school. All of these are based on a district’s location and plans, things that can be determined before a potential dismissal. These indicators can be used to highlight districts most likely to dismiss and possibly reduce rates of over-dismissal by alerting districts to their predisposed tendencies.     

Agent-Based Modeling and Analysis of Hurricane Evacuation Procedures for the Florida Keys

The unique geography of the Florida Keys presents both high risk of hurricane landfall and exceptional vulnerability to the effects of a hurricane strike. Inadequate hurricane shelters in the Keys make evacuation the only option for most residents, but the sole access road can become impassable well in advance of a major storm. These extraordinary conditions create challenges for emergency managers who must ensure that appropriate emergency plans are in place and to ensure that an orderly exodus can occur without stranding large numbers of people along an evacuation route with inadequate shelter capacity. This study attempts to answer two questions: (1) What is the minimum clearance time needed to evacuate all residents participating in an evacuation of the Florida Keys in advance of a major hurricane for 92,596 people – a population size calculated based on the 2000 US Census population data, census undercounts, and the number of tourists estimated to be in the area? (2) If a hurricane makes landfall in the Keys while the evacuation is in progress, how many residents will need to be accommodated if the evacuation route becomes impassable? The authors conducted agent-based microsimulations to answer the questions. Simulation results suggest that it takes 20 h and 11 min to 20 h and 14 min to evacuate the 92,596 people. This clearance time is less than the Florida state mandated 24-h clearance time limit. If one assumes that people evacuate in a 48-h period and the traffic flow from the Keys would follow that observed in the evacuation from Hurricane Georges, then a total of 460 people may be stranded if the evacuation route becomes impassable 48 h after an evacuation order is issued. If the evacuation route becomes impassable 40 h after an evacuation order is issued, then 14,000 people may be stranded.     

Benthic Community Structure and Sediment Properties in Barnegat Bay,New Jersey,Before and After Hurricane Sandy

Hurricane Sandy was an extraordinarily large storm that affected most of the eastern coast of the USA in October 2012. To assess this storm’s impact, the benthic invertebrate community structure and sediment properties were compared in samples collected 3.5 months prior to (July 2012) and 8 months after (July 2013) the hurricane at 97 locations in Barnegat Bay, New Jersey, USA. Barnegat Bay is a shallow back-barrier estuary just north of where Sandy made landfall. For all locations taken together, sediment total nitrogen concentration was lower afterwards, while total organic carbon and total phosphorus concentrations were similar. Sediment median particle size was the same before and after, but the sediment was better sorted after the storm. There were no differences in total abundance of invertebrates, species richness, species diversity, or the abundance of polychaetes, bivalves, or gastropods. Malacostracan crustaceans were more abundant after Sandy (average 82 (0.04 m²)^?1) than they were before (average 64), due almost entirely to increased abundance of ampeliscid amphipods, which showed a shift toward smaller sizes in 2013. Annelids in the order Clitellata were on average less abundant after the hurricane (17) than before (53). The apparent minimal effect of Sandy on the benthic community in Barnegat Bay was probably because the passage of the hurricane had no detectable effects on salinity or dissolved oxygen concentrations throughout the bay.     

An analysis of coastal and inland fatalities in landfalling US hurricanes

Improvements in hurricane forecasts allowing for more timely evacuations from storm-surge zones are credited with reducing lethality of US landfalling hurricanes. The deadly reach of a hurricane, however, is not limited to storm-surge zones. About 80% of direct US hurricane fatalities since 1970 occurred outside of landfall counties, with most of these fatalities caused by inland flooding. We construct a geographic information system database combining the location and cause of fatalities, estimated wind speeds, and rainfall amounts for the entire track of the storm for landfalling US hurricanes between 1970 and 2007. We analyze the determinants of total fatalities and deaths due to freshwater drowning and wind. Inclusion of inland fatalities results in no downward trend in lethality over the period, in contrast to prior research. Local storm conditions significantly affect lethality, as one-inch and one-knot increases in rainfall and wind increase total fatalities by 28 and 4%. Rainfall significantly increases freshwater-drowning deaths and is insignificant for wind deaths, while the opposite relation holds for wind speed. While coastal counties do not exhibit a significantly higher amount of lethality risk versus inland counties for total or wind-driven fatalities, freshwater-drowning fatalities occur most frequently in inland counties along the center of the storm path and its outer county tiers as we have defined them.     

A semi-probabilistic procedure for developing societal risk function

Among the coastal districts of mega city Istanbul, Bakirkoy is one of the most critical one with the importance of air and marine transportation and presence of many other coastal facilities and structures that are prone to suffer from marine hazards. In the history, the Sea of Marmara has experienced numerous earthquake and landslide events and associated tsunamis. Therefore, tsunami risk assessment is essential for all coastal districts of Istanbul, including Bakirkoy district. In this study, a further developed methodology for tsunami human vulnerability and risk assessment Metropolitan Tsunami Human Vulnerability Assessment (MeTHuVA) is applied for Bakirkoy district of Istanbul, considering earthquake generated tsunamis. High-resolution tsunami hazard analysis is performed with the integration of coastal inundation computation with tsunami numerical tool NAMI DANCE and tsunami human vulnerability assessment with GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis methods (MCDA). Using analytical hierarchy process method of MCDA, a hierarchical structure is established, composed of two main elements of tsunami human vulnerability: Vulnerability at Location and Evacuation Resilience. Tsunami risk assessment for Bakirkoy district is calculated by integrating result of hazard and vulnerability assessments with a risk relation that includes a parameter (n), which represents the preparedness and awareness level of the community. Tsunami simulations revealed that the maximum inundation distance is over 350 m on land and water penetrates almost 1700 m along Ayamama stream. Inundation is observed in eleven neighborhoods of Bakirkoy district. In the inundation zone, maximum flow depth is found to be over 5.7 m. The inundated area forms 4.2% of whole Bakirkoy district, and 62 buildings are located in the inundation zone. Hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment results for different neighborhoods of Bakirkoy district are presented and discussed.     

On the use of NOAA's storm surge model,SLOSH, in managing coastal hazards — the experience in Puerto Rico

A numerical-dynamic, tropical storm surge model, SLOSH (Sea, Land, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes), was originally developed for real-time forecasting of hurricane storm surges on continental shelves, across inland water bodies and along coastlines and for inland routing of water -either from the sea or from inland water bodies. The model is two-dimensional, covering water bodies and inundated terrain. In the present version available at the University of Puerto Rico a curvilinear, polar coordinate grid scheme is used. The grid cells are approximately 3.2 × 3.2 km in size.The model has been used in a revision of all coastal Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRM) for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, and in hurricane evacuation studies. The FIRM's, since they are based on the 100 year stillwater elevation, are also used by the state Planning Board for regulatory purposes. The hurricane evacuation studies are used by emergency planners and personnel to assign shelters, escape routes, and delimit coastal zones that need to be evacuated during a hurricane threat.Recently, the acquisition of data from hurricane Hugo has allowed the first comparison of model results and observations for Puerto Rico and the other islands.     

Characteristics of Extreme Meteorological Forcing and Water Levels in Mobile Bay, Alabama

The paper presents comprehensive statistical analyses of winds and water levels in Mobile Bay, Alabama, based on long-term meteorological and tidal observations at several locations. A procedure has been developed to select the most probable parent distribution function from a list of candidate distributions. The theoretical functions that fit the data best enable us to predict the extreme values of winds and water levels at different return periods. We have demonstrated the importance of dividing the winds into hurricane and nonhurricane seasons and separating astronomical tides from weather-driven water level changes. The statistical analysis suggests that the wind speed averaged over 8 min at Dauphin Island, Alabama, at the 100-year return period would be 48.9 m/s, which is equivalent to a sustained 1-min wind of 205 km/h, a very strong category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The probability distribution models predict that the 100-year maximum water level would be 3.23 m above the mean lower low water (MLLW) level at the bay entrance and 3.41 m above the MLLW level near the head of the bay, respectively. Extremely low water levels important to navigation are also found. Application of the predicted extreme winds and surges is illustrated through the development of a storm wave atlas in the estuary. It is expected that the methodology and results presented in this paper will benefit the management and preservation of the ecosystems and habitats in Mobile Bay.     

A hurricane evacuation management decision support system (EMDSS)

This article describes the challenges confronting local authorities who must decide if and when to initiate evacuations from tropical cyclones. This problem can be decomposed into the behavior of the hurricane that is relevant to evacuation and the behavior of evacuees that is relevant to the hurricane. The uncertain behavior of these two systems can be modeled in an evacuation management decision support system (EMDSS). The hurricane EMDSS described here displays information about the minimum, most, and maximum probable evacuation time estimates (ETEs) in comparison to the earliest, most, and latest probable estimated times of arrival (ETAs) for storm conditions. In addition, EMDSS calculates the cost of false positive (the economic cost of an evacuation) and false negative (lives lost in a late evacuation) decision errors. EMDSS is being used in experiments to assess different information displays, team compositions, community characteristics, and hurricane scenarios. In addition, it will be used in training and actual hurricane operations. Finally, definition of the program’s requirements has identified further research needed to build a better empirical base for its input data.     

Role of Quaternary stratigraphy on arsenic-contaminated groundwater from parts of Barak Valley, Assam, North–East India

Groundwater arsenic survey in Cachar and Karimganj districts of Barak Valley, Assam shows that people in these two districts are drinking arsenic-contaminated (max. 350 μg/l) groundwater. 66% of tubewells in these two districts have arsenic concentration above the WHO guideline value of 10 μg/l and 26% tubewells have arsenic above 50 μg/l, the Indian standards for arsenic in drinking water. 90% of installed tubewells in these two districts are shallow depth (14–40 m). Shallow tubewells were installed in Holocene Newer Alluvium aquifers are characterised by grey to black coloured fine grained organic rich argillaceous sediments and are mostly arsenic contamination in groundwater. Plio-Pleistocene Older Alluvium aquifers composed of shale, ferruginous sandstone, mottle clay, pebble and boulder beds, which at higher location or with thin cover of Newer Alluvium sediments are safe in arsenic contamination in groundwater. 91% of tubewell water samples show significantly higher concentrations of iron beyond its permissible limit of 1 mg/l. The iron content in these two districts varies from 0.5 to as much as 48 mg/l. Most of the arsenic contaminated villages of Cachar and Karimganj districts are located in entrenched channels and flood plains of Newer Alluvium sediments in Barak-Surma-Langai Rivers system. However, deeper tubewells (>60 m) in Plio-Pleistocene Older Alluvium aquifers would be a better option for arsenic-safe groundwater. The arsenic in groundwater is getting released from associated Holocene sediments which were likely deposited from the surrounding Tertiary Barail hill range.     

Simulation of water levels and extent of coastal inundation due to a cyclonic storm along the east coast of India

The devastation due to storm surge flooding caused by extreme wind waves generated by the cyclones is a severe apprehension along the coastal regions of India. In order to coexist with nature’s destructive forces in any vulnerable coastal areas, numerical ocean models are considered today as an essential tool to predict the sea level rise and associated inland extent of flooding that could be generated by a cyclonic storm crossing any coastal stretch. For this purpose, the advanced 2D depth-integrated (ADCIRC-2DDI) circulation model based on finite-element formulation is configured for the simulation of surges and water levels along the east coast of India. The model is integrated using wind stress forcing, representative of 1989, 1996, and 2000 cyclones, which crossed different parts of the east coast of India. Using the long-term inventory of cyclone database, synthesized tracks are deduced for vulnerable coastal districts of Tamil Nadu. Return periods are also computed for the intensity and frequency of cyclones for each coastal district. Considering the importance of Kalpakkam region, extreme water levels are computed based on a 50-year return period data, for the generation of storm surges, induced water levels, and extent of inland inundation. Based on experimental evidence, it is advocated that this region could be inundated/affected by a storm with a threshold pressure drop of 66 hpa. Also it is noticed that the horizontal extent of inland inundation ranges between 1 and 1.5 km associated with the peak surge. Another severe cyclonic storm in Tamil Nadu (November 2000 cyclone), which made landfall approximately 20 km south of Cuddalore, has been chosen to simulate surges and water levels. Two severe cyclonic storms that hit Andhra coast during 1989 and 1996, which made landfall near Kavali and Kakinada, respectively, are also considered and computed run-up heights and associated water levels. The simulations exhibit a good agreement with available observations from the different sources on storm surges and associated inundation caused by these respective storms. It is believed that this study would help the coastal authorities to develop a short- and long-term disaster management, mitigation plan, and emergency response in the event of storm surge flooding.     

The role of overwash in the evolution of mixing zone morphology within barrier islands

Overwash is a major controlling factor in the morphology of the mixing zone of coastal aquifers. Conceptual models of the mixing zone describe an interface controlled by tidal oscillations, wave run-up, and other factors; however, few describe the influence of large storm events. In August 1993, Hatteras Island, North Carolina, USA, experienced a 3-m storm surge due to Hurricane Emily. Sound-side flooding infiltrated a wellfield, causing a dramatic increase in TDS levels that persisted for more than 3 years. Two-dimensional simulations with SUTRA, the USGS finite-element model, are calibrated to the TDS breakthrough data of this storm to infer model dispersivity values. Simulations using the calibrated dispersivity values, predicted flooding levels, and 54 years of hurricane records to determine the influence of the overwash events suggest that it is rare for the mixing zone to approximate the conceptual morphology. Even during quiescent periods such as between 1965 and 1975, TDS levels do not return to theoretical levels before being elevated by a subsequent storm event. Thus, while tidal oscillations and other factors are important to mixing zone development, basic wind events and more severe storm events may have more influence and lasting effect on the morphology of the mixing zone.     

The logistics of household hurricane evacuation

Although there is a substantial amount of research on households’ hurricane evacuation decision making, there is much less research on the logistical issues involved in implementing those evacuations. The limited research on household evacuation logistics has consistently shown that most evacuees stay in the homes of friends and relatives or in commercial facilities rather than in public shelters. However, evacuation logistics—which can be defined as the activities and associated resources needed to reach a safe location and remain there until it is safe to return—encompasses a much broader range of behaviors than this. The present study extends previous research by reporting data on other aspects of evacuation logistics such as departure timing, vehicle use, evacuation routes, travel distance, shelter type, evacuation duration, and evacuation cost. Hurricane Lili evacuation data at the county level are generally consistent with the data from previous hurricanes, but there is notable variation across counties studied here. There were only modest correlations of demographic and geographic variables with the evacuation logistics variables, a result that indicates further research is needed to better understand what happens between the time an evacuation decision is made and the time re-entry is begun. Moreover, research is needed to understand the logistics of evacuation by special populations such as transients and households with disabled members.     

Vulnerability from storm surges and cyclone wind fields on the coast of Andhra Pradesh,India

The results presented here are from a study conducted for the government of the state of Andhra Pradesh (GOAP) in India, as part of a World Bank project on cyclone mitigation. A set of detailed maps were prepared depicting the Physical Vulnerability (PV), specifically storm surge inundation zones are shown for frequent occurrence, 50-year return period, likely scenario for global warming and extreme global warming. Similarly vulnerable areas from strong wind field from tropical cyclones (TCS) are also presented for the same four parameters. Vulnerability zones are presented from a social point of view also based upon certain socio-economic parameters that were included in determining the overall vulnerability of each Mandal in a coastal district (a Mandal represents a group of villages and towns) include: population, senior citizens, women, children under different age groups, type of housing, income level, cyclone shelters, hospitals and medical centres, schools and caste based population. The study is about scenarios that could happen if global warming and the predicted intensification of TCS actually occur as predicted by some numerical models.     

Potential impacts of long-term subsidence on the wetlands and evacuation routes in coastal Louisiana

A steady-state subsidence forecast model was developed as a proof of concept to estimate changes in surface elevations of the wetlands and evacuation routes across coastal Louisiana for the years 2015, 2025, 2050, and 2100. Subsidence estimates were derived from an empirical study published by the National Geodetic Survey. Forecasted vertical change was subtracted from current surface elevations. Land and evacuation routes estimated to have surfaces at or below 0 m in elevation, NAVD88, were quantified and classified as vulnerable to inundation hazards. The extent of the coastal zone susceptible to hurricane induced storm surge was also evaluated relative to surge models published by the National Weather Service. The results indicate spatially heterogeneous rates of subsidence that are forecasted to consume nearly 50 % of the existing coastal margin wetlands by 2100. The most significant rate increases are anticipated between 2015 and 2050. Relative to the impact on evacuation routes, subsidence occurring between the 2015 and 2025 forecast years expanded at slower rates when compared to the latter half of the century. Subsidence adjusted storm surge forecasts reveal similar patterns. The methods employed and findings produced demonstrate forecasting capabilities that provide emergency managers and transportation engineers with resources applicable to evacuation modeling, hazard mitigation, environmental sustainability research, costal restoration efforts, and more.     

Mapping joint hurricane wind and surge hazards for Charleston,South Carolina

Combined effects of hurricane wind and surge can pose significant threats to coastal cities. Although current design codes consider the joint occurrence of wind and surge, information on site-specific joint distributions of hurricane wind and surge along the US Coast is still sparse and limited. In this study, joint hazard maps for combined hurricane wind and surge for Charleston, South Carolina (SC), were developed. A stochastic Markov chain hurricane simulation program was utilized to generate 50,000 years of full-track hurricane events. The surface wind speeds and surge heights from individual hurricanes were computed using the Georgiou’s wind field model and the Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model, respectively. To validate the accuracy of the SLOSH model, the simulated surge levels were compared to the surge levels calculated by another state-of-the-art storm surge model, ADCIRC (Advanced Circulation), and the actual observed water elevations from historical hurricane events. Good agreements were found between the simulated and observed water elevations. The model surface wind speeds were also compared with the design wind speeds in ASCE 7-10 and were found to agree well with the design values. Using the peak wind speeds and maximum surge heights, the joint hazard surfaces and the joint hazard maps for Charleston, SC, were developed. As part of this study, an interactive computer program, which can be used to obtain the joint wind speed and surge height distributions for any location in terms of latitude and longitude in Charleston area, was created. These joint hazard surfaces and hazard maps can be used in a multi-hazard design or risk assessment framework to consider the combined effects of hurricane wind and surge.     

Improving spatiotemporal groundwater estimates after natural disasters using remotely sensed data – a case study of the Indian Ocean Tsunami

The Indian Ocean Tsunami of December 26, 2004 devastated coastal ecosystems across South Asia. Along the coastal regions of South India, increased groundwater levels (GWL), largely caused by saltwater intrusion, infiltration from inundated land, and disturbance of freshwater lenses, were reported. Many agencies allocated funding for restoration and rehabilitation projects. However, to streamline funding allocation efforts, district-level groundwater inundation/recession data would have been a useful tool for planners. Thus, to ensure better preparedness for future disaster relief operations, it is crucial to quantify pre- and post-tsunami groundwater levels across coastal districts in India. Since regional scale GWL field observations are not often available, this study instead used space gravimetry data from NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), along with soil moisture data from the Global Land Data Assimilation Systems (GLDAS), to quantify GWL fluctuations caused by the tsunami. A time-series analysis of equivalent groundwater thickness was developed for February 2004–December 2005 and the results indicated a net increase of 274 % in GWLs along coastal regions in Tamil Nadu following the tsunami. The net recharge volume of groundwater due to the tsunami was 16.8 km³, just 15 % lower than the total annual groundwater recharge (19.8 km³) for the state of Tamil Nadu. Additionally, GWLs returned to average within 3 months following the tsunami. The analysis demonstrated the utility of remotely sensed data in predicting and assessing the impacts of natural disasters.     

Effects of Hurricane Ivan on water quality in Pensacola Bay, Florida

Pensacola Bay, Florida, was in the strong northeast quadrant of Hurricane Ivan when it made landfall on September 16, 2004 as a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. We present data describing the timeline and maximum height of the storm surge, the extent of flooding of coastal land, and the magnitude of the freshwater inflow pulse that followed the storm. We computed the magnitude of tidal flushing associated with the surge using a tidal prism model. We also evaluated hurricane effects on water quality using water quality surveys conducted 20 and 50 d after the storm, which we compared with a survey 14 d before landfall. We evaluated the scale of hurricane effects relative to normal variability using a 5-yr monthly record. Ivan's 3.5 m storm surge inundated 165 km² of land, increasing the surface area of Pensacola Bay by 50% and its volume by 230%. The model suggests that 60% of the Bay's volume was flushed, initially increasing the average salinity of Bay waters from 23 to 30 and lowering nutrient and chlorophylla concentrations. Additional computations suggest that wind forcing was sufficient to completely mix the water column during the storm. Freshwater discharge from the largest river increased twentyfold during the subsequent 4 d, stimulating a modest phytoplankton bloom (chlorophyll up to 18 μg l⁻¹) and maintaining hypoxia for several months. Although the immediate physical perturbation was extreme, the water quality effects that persisted beyond the first several days were within the normal range of variability for this system. In terms of water quality and phytoplankton productivity effects, this ecosystem appears to be quite resilient in the face of a severe hurricane effect.     

Public health consequences of the 2008 Hurricane Ike windstorm in Ohio,USA

Hurricane Ike struck Galveston, Texas, on 13 September 2008, and transitioned to an extra-tropical cyclone on 14 September as it moved across Ohio with wind gusts of 28–35 ms⁻¹. This was the second most disruptive statewide windstorm in Ohio since 1913, and it caused the largest electrical failure in Ohio history, with 2 million customers without power. Private insured losses of $1.1 billion were the largest for a natural disaster in Ohio since 1974. There were seven deaths caused by the storm and 603 injuries. The American Red Cross opened 25 shelters and 86 feeding stations. Hospitals and public water supply systems used backup generators to maintain operations. Public health consequences of the storm were minimized by good preplanning and preparedness at the local level, by moderate temperatures during the massive power failure, and the response of governments, the American Red Cross, charitable and service organizations, and private citizens.     

Risk perception and evacuation decisions of Florida tourists under hurricane threats: a stated preference analysis

Though most hurricane evacuation studies have focused on residents, tourists are also a vulnerable population. To assess their perceptions of risk and evacuation likelihood under different hurricane conditions, we surveyed 448 tourists visiting central Florida. Respondents viewed four maps emulating track forecast cones produced by the National Hurricane Center and text information featuring variations of storm intensity, coast of landfall, centerline position relative to the survey site, time until landfall, and event duration. We performed chi-square tests to determine which hurricane conditions, and aspects of tourists such as their demographics and previous hurricane experience, most likely influenced their ratings of risk and evacuation likelihood for respondents located on Pinellas County beaches or inland near Orlando, FL. Highly rated scenarios featured a Category 4 hurricane making landfall along the Gulf Coast with the centerline passing over the sampling site. Overall, tourists that indicated the highest risk and evacuation ratings were not previously affected by a hurricane, had a trip duration of less than 6 days, and had checked for the possibility of a hurricane strike before departure. However, results for other tourist attributes differed between tourists in coastal and inland locations. We found that although somewhat knowledgeable about hurricanes, tourists misinterpreted the track forecast cone and hurricane conditions, which led to a lower perception of risk and subsequent likelihood to evacuate. Tourists, particularly those from outside of Florida, need to be better educated about the risks they face from hurricanes that make landfall.