Parametrical landslide modeling for the hydrogeological susceptibility assessment: from the Crati Valley to the Cavallerizzo landslide (Southern Italy)

The article deals with a tool for landslides susceptibility assessment as a function of the hydrogeological setting at different scales. The study has been applied to a test area located in Southern Italy. First, a 3D groundwater flow model was implemented for a large-scale area. The simulation of several groundwater conditions compared with the landslide activity map allows drawing a hydrogeological susceptibility map. Then, a slope scale analysis was carried out for the Cavallerizzo landslide. For this purpose, a 2D groundwater parametrical modeling was coupled with a slope stability analysis; the simulation was carried out by changing the values of the main hydrogeological parameters (recharge, groundwater supply level, etc.). The results enabled to connect the slope instability to some hydrogeological characteristics that are easy to survey and to monitor (e.g., rainfall, piezometrical level, and spring discharge), pointing out the hazard thresholds with regards to different triggering phenomena.     

Analysis of the Maierato landslide (Calabria,Southern Italy)

On 15 February 2010, a landslide of great dimensions occurred at Maierato (Calabria, Southern Italy) after a long rainy period. Although the zone was continuously affected by ground movements especially during the wet seasons, no monitoring system was installed before the occurrence of the landslide. However, many photos and two videos were taken during the failure process of the slope. In the present study, the available images are used to reconstruct the kinematics of the landslide. In addition, a finite element analysis is performed to define the main factors of triggering and to interpret the failure mechanism of the slope. This analysis is also based on the data from a site investigation carried out after the landslide to characterise the involved soils from a geotechnical viewpoint. The analysis also accounts for the strain-softening behaviour of some soils. The results have shown that the Maierato landslide was the reactivation of a pre-existing landslide body, which was caused by a significant increase in groundwater level.     

The February 2010 large landslide at Maierato, Vibo Valentia, Southern Italy

A large landslide formed at Maierato (Vibo Valencia District), Southern Italy, on 15 February 2010, at 1430?hours local time, when rapid failure occurred after several days of preliminary movements. The landslide has an area of 0.3?km², a runout distance of 1.2?km and an estimated volume of about 10?Mm³. The landslide caused nearly 2,300 inhabitants to be evacuated, with high economic losses. The most probable trigger of the landslide was the cumulative precipitation over the preceding 20?days (having a return period of more than 100?years), which followed a long period of 4?C5?months of heavy rainfall (of about 150% of the average rainfall of the period). This report presents a summary of our findings pertinent to the landslide??s activities based on our field investigations. In particular, this report covers (1) details of land deformation caused by the landslide, (2) geology pertinent to landslide development, (3) identification of the landslide mechanism and its triggering factors based on the analysis of the boring core specimens and landform features, as well as the available video of the event, and (4) preliminary evaluation of the stability of the original slope before the landslide using the finite element-based shear strength reduction method. The aim of the paper was to describe the landslide and explain its mechanism of occurrence.     

湘西陈溪峪滑坡变形机理及稳定性评价

浅层滑坡在我国广泛分布,但在区域范围内分布规律性较差,且具有突发性、隐蔽性和破坏性强等特点。湘西武陵山区地质条件复杂、降雨丰沛、人类工程活动强烈,突发性地质灾害频发,尤以降雨诱发的浅层滑坡为主。文章以湘西地区慈利县陈溪峪滑坡为例,开展了降雨量、基质吸力、地下水位和地表变形等的监测;结合滑坡的现场调查及监测成果,分析滑坡的形成条件和变形机理;在此基础上,考虑基质吸力对边坡稳定性的贡献,将强度折减有限元法推广到非饱和土边坡,计算得到了不同降雨工况下滑坡稳定性。结果表明:当强降雨降落到滑坡体上时,坡内基质吸力值均迅速减小,直至一定值后（9.5 kPa左右）不再变化;坡内地下水位受季节性降雨影响显著,短时强降雨引起地下水变化幅度不如长时间降雨对地下水位造成的影响大;陈溪峪滑坡的地质力学成因为蠕滑推移式土质滑坡,运动形式为沿基覆界面的浅层滑坡;短时强降雨是诱发滑坡变形的最关键因素。陈溪峪滑坡在持续降雨条件下的降雨量预警值约为280 mm,在短时强降雨条件下的降雨强度预警值约为240 mm/d。     

Kita-Uebaru natural rock slope failure and its back analysis

A large landslide occurred in Kita-Uebaru (or Asato) area of Nakagusuku village in Okinawa Island (Japan) on 10 June 2006 after a rainy period of about 9 days. The total rainfall was 126 mm from June 8 till the time of the landslide this period. This landslide destroyed several buildings and roads, and the total travel distance of the landslide was about 110 m. In this article, the authors were concerned with the initiation conditions of Kita-Uebaru landslide and post-failure motions of the landslide body. The observations made in the landslide area, structural geology analyses and outcomes of geotechnical investigations are described first. Then, possible causes of the landslide are investigated through back analyses using as inputs the geological structure and the strength properties of planes of discontinuities involved in the sliding processes. The final part of the article is concerned with the simulation of post-failure motions of the landslide body. The results of the investigations and back analyses indicate that the failure plane was bi-planar and the heavy torrential rainy period for about 3 days was the main cause of initiation of the landslide. The mechanical model presented in this article was capable of capturing the overall features of the landslide body following the initiation of the failure.     

Towards hydrological triggering mechanisms of large deep-seated landslides

It is a widely accepted idea that hydrologically triggered deep-seated landslides are initiated by an increase in pore-water pressure on potential slip surface induced by rising groundwater level after prolonged period of intense rainfall although the process is not fully understood. In order to contribute to better understanding, the rainfall–groundwater relationships, hydrogeological monitoring and repeated geoelectrical imaging were carried out from March 2007 to April 2011 in large deep-seated landslide near ?ubietová (Western Carpathians) catastrophically reactivated at the end of February 1977. Based on our observations, groundwater level (GWL) response to precipitation differs considerably with respect to both overall hydrological conditions and GWL mean depth. While the rate of GWL increase up to 25 cm/day were measured after some rainfall events during wet periods, noticeably lower recharge rate (up to 1–2 cm/day) and delayed GWL response to rainfall (usually from 2 weeks to 2–4 months) were observed at the beginning of the wet season after considerable depression of GWLs due to previous effective rainfall deficit. Likewise, slow GWL fluctuations without short-term oscillations are typical for deeper GWLs. Thus, long-term (several seasons to several years) hydrological conditions affect markedly groundwater response to rainfall events in the studied landslide and can be crucial for its behaviour. Comparison of hydrological conditions characterising the analysed period with those that accompanied the landslide reactivation in 1977 allow us to assume that slightly above-average rainy season following the prolonged wet period can be far more responsible for movement acceleration (and possibly failure initiation) in deep landslides than the isolated season of extreme precipitation following a longer dry period. This is true especially for landslides in regions with significant seasonal temperature changes where potential effective precipitation (PEP), calculated as excess of precipitation (P) over potential evapotranspiration (PET), may be efficiently used for estimation of slope saturation condition.     

Critical shallow and deep hydrologic conditions associated with widespread landslides during a series of storms between February and April 2018 in Pittsburgh and vicinity,western Pennsylvania,USA

The potential for widespread landslides is generally increased when extraordinary wet periods occur during times of elevated subsurface hydrologic conditions. A series of storms in early 2018 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, overlapped with a period of increased shallow soil moisture and rising bedrock groundwater levels resulting from seasonally diminished evapotranspiration and induced widespread landslides in the region. Most of the landslides were shallow slope failures in colluvium, landslide deposits, and/or fill. However, deep-seated landslide activity also occurred and corresponded with record cumulative precipitation from late February to April and bedrock groundwater levels rising to an annual high. Landslides blocked or damaged roads, adversely affected multiple houses, disrupted electrical service, crushed vehicles, and resulted in considerable economic losses. The initial landslides occurred during or immediately after a rare period of three successive days of heavy rain that began on February 14. Subsequent landslides between late February and April were induced by multiday storms with smaller rainfall totals. As shallow soil moisture at a monitoring site rose above a volumetric water content of 32%, the mean rainfall intensities necessary to induce slope failure in colluvium and other surficial deposits decreased. Deep-seated landslide movement occurred in the region mostly when the groundwater level in a bedrock observation well was shallower than 1.7 m. The availability of hydrologic and landslide movement monitoring data during this extraordinary series of storms highlighted the evolution of the landslide hazard with changing moisture conditions and yielded insights into potential hydrologic criteria for anticipating future widespread landslides in the region.

     

Quantitative assessment on the influence of heavy rainfall on the crystalline schist landslide by monitoring system -case study on Zentoku landslide, Japan

On Shikoku Island, which is one of the four main islands of Japan, a large number of large-scale crystalline schist landslides have been revealed and are being monitored by an observation system. Seasonal heavy rainfall is the most active meteorological factor that can threaten the stability of this kind of site-specific landslide. In this paper, on the basis of the study of the rainfall-related behavior of a typical crystalline schist landslide, the Zentoku landslide, by analyzing the precisely and continuously observed piezometric and movement data, a method was developed to quantitatively assess the effect of heavy rainfall on a large-scale landslide. The results indicated that heavy rainfall-induced landslide displacement shows good correlation with the variation of groundwater levels. Variations of groundwater level have been simulated with the use of a tank model. The simulation using this model permits the change in water levels for future rainfall events to be predicted. By combining the predicted results with the empirical relation between displacements and water levels, rainfall-induced landslide movement during extreme rainfall events can be estimated in advance. The effect of heavy rainfall on sliding behavior can be quantified in terms of the change in displacement. Thus warning information or advisories for the local residents can be provided.     

宁镇地区山前缓坡地层结构及其稳定性分析

近年来由于受极端强降雨天气的影响,宁镇地区山前缓坡发生多起中型-大型滑坡地质灾害,主要表现为间歇性蠕滑,规模较大,而滑移距离较小,一般小于30 m,该类滑坡严重威胁附近居民的生命和财产安全,造成巨大的经济损失和严重不良社会影响。为此,本文针对这一典型山前缓坡新型滑坡地质灾害,运用岩体结构控制论和优势面理论对其滑坡体地层结构及滑动机理进行研究,结果表明滑坡主要发生在山前缓坡地段,滑坡体具有特殊的地层结构及水文地质特性,受到强降雨作用时,在坡体内容易产生暂时性承压水,在其浮托力的作用下缓坡主要产生顶托破裂和剪切破坏,并随降雨产生间歇性蠕滑。     

The application of an innovative inverse model for understanding and predicting landslide movements (Salazie cirque landslides,Reunion Island)

The prediction of landslide movement acceleration is a complex problem, among others identified for deep-seated landslides, and represents a crucial step for risk assessment. Within the scope of this problem, the objective of this paper is to explore a modelling method that enables the study of landslide function and facilitates displacement predictions based on a limited data set. An inverse modelling approach is proposed for predicting the temporal evolution of landslide movement based on rainfall and displacement velocities. Initially, the hydrogeology of the studied landslides was conceptualised based on correlative analyses. Subsequently, we applied an inverse model with a Gaussian-exponential transfer function to reproduce the displacements. This method was tested on the Grand Ilet (GI) and Mare-à-Poule-d’Eau (HB) landslides on Reunion Island in the Indian Ocean. We show that the behaviour of landslides can be modelled by inverse models with a bimodal transfer function using a Gaussian-exponential impulse response. The cumulative displacements over 7 years of modelling (2 years of calibration period for GI, and 4 years for HB) were reproduced with an RMSE above 0.9. The characteristics of the bimodal transfer function are directly related to the hydrogeological functioning demonstrated by the correlative analyses: the rapid reaction of a landslide can be associated with the effect of a preferential flow path on groundwater level variations. Thus, this study shows that the inverse model using a Gaussian-exponential transfer function is a powerful tool for predicting deep-seated landslide movements and for studying how they function. Beyond modelling displacements, our approach effectively demonstrates its ability to contribute relevant data for conceptualising the sliding mechanisms and hydrogeology of landslides.     

Slope movements induced by rainfalls damaging an urban area: the Catanzaro case study (Calabria, southern Italy)

Calabria is one of the Italian regions mostly affected by mass movements. The case study of a densely populated neighborhood (Ianò) located in the central-western sector of Calabria is presented. The several landslides triggered in February 2010 caused heavy damages to the built area, infrastructures and productions of this neighborhood, and increased the risk for the inhabitants. The results obtained through field surveys, photo interpretation, analyses of rainfall data and of the urban fabric evolution, historical survey on the reports of the damages caused by landslides, have enabled to formulate hypotheses on the potential causes that triggered landslide events and produced severe consequences on the area. These results have revealed that almost all landslides of February 2010 are partial reactivations of pre-existing landslide deposits. Moreover, the analyses have indicated a critical role of cumulative rainfalls over an interval of 15 days. However, the severe damage framework is explained through an unplanned urbanization which took place across the years on an area characterized by a high level of instability per se. Some buildings have been erected in proximity of or within pre-existing landslide scarps; in other cases, buildings have been constructed even inside the landslide bodies.     

Field monitoring of groundwater responses to heavy rainfalls and the early warning of the Kualiangzi landslide in Sichuan Basin,southwestern China

The Kualiangzi landslide was triggered by heavy rainfalls in the “red beds” area of Sichuan Basin in southwestern China. Differing from other bedrock landslides, the movement of the Kualiangzi landslide was controlled by the subvertical cracks and a subhorizontal bedding plane (dip angle < 10°). The ingress of rainwater in the cracks formed a unique groundwater environment in the slope. Field measurement for rainfall, groundwater movement, and slope displacement has been made for the Kualiangzi landslide since 2013. The field monitoring system consists of two rainfall gauges, seven piezometers, five water-level gauges, and two GPS data loggers. The equipments are embedded near a longitudinal section of the landslide, where severe deformation has been observed in the past 3 years. The groundwater responses to four heavy rainfall events were analyzed between June 16 and July 24 in 2013 coincided with the flood season in Sichuan. Results showed that both of the water level and the pore-water pressure increased after each rainfall event with delay in the response time with respect to the precipitation. The maximum time lag reached 35 h occurred in a heavy rainfall event with cumulative precipitation of 127 mm; such lag effect was significantly weakened in the subsequent heavy rainfall events. In each presented rainfall event, longer infiltration period in the bedrock in the upper slope increased the response time of groundwater, compared to that of in the gravels in the lower slope. A translational landslide conceptual model was built for the Kualiangzi landslide, and the time lag was attributed to the gradual formation of the uplift pressure on the slip surface and the softening of soils at the slip surface. Another important observation is the effect on the slope movement which was caused by the water level (H _w) in the transverse tension trough developed at the rear edge of the landslide. Significant negative correlation was found for H _w and the slope stability factor (F _s), in particular for the last two heavy rainfall events, of which the drastic increase of water level caused significant deterioration in the slope stability. The rapid drop (Δ?=?22.5 kPa) of pore-water pressure in the deep bedrock within 1 h and the large increase (Δ?=?87.3 mm) of surficial displacement were both monitored in the same period. In the end, a four-level early warning system is established through utilizing H _w and the displacement rate D _r as the warning indicators. When the large deformation occurred in flood season, the habitants at the leading edge of the landslide can be evacuated in time.     

Agent-based tsunami evacuation modeling of unplanned network disruptions for evidence-driven resource allocation and retrofitting strategies

The constant threat from landslides in the northeastern part of Istria, Croatia, calls for the need to apply accurate and reliable methods in landslide hazard assessment in order to prevent landslide damage and to set an early warning system if necessary. Furthermore, landslide susceptibility and hazard assessment enable optimal area management and regional urban planning. The study area is in the northeastern and central part of the Istrian Peninsula, well known as an area of frequent, small and shallow slope instability phenomena. Landslide susceptibility assessment in the area around the city of Buzet was performed using a deterministic landslide susceptibility model in the LS-RAPID software. LS-RAPID was developed to analyze stability at one single location, but the performed analysis has shown that LS-RAPID can be used as a powerful tool in landslide susceptibility and hazard assessment on regional scale. The objective of this paper is to establish the influence of the runout potential on the enlargement of the landslide-susceptible zones, due to expansion of the failure area around the initial failure zone. Performed analysis of rainfall return periods shows the frequency of landslide occurrence and provides the possible correlation with the time component of landslide hazard in the area.     

Subterranean erosion in a crystalline schist landslide in Japan

By employing a complete observation system, the underground erosion in a typical large-scale crystalline schist landslide in Japan, the Zentoku landslide, was studied. It was found that the seasonal heavy rainfall is the main factor leading to the massive underground erosion. Two types of sediment discharge of the landslide were defined. Monitored data indicated that the movement of Zentoku landslide could be affected by the underground erosion following the concentrated heavy rainfall. The influence of the underground erosion on the movement of the landslide presents different features. For the sliding block of shallow and medium depth shear zones (5–20 m), the influence of the underground erosion is most outstanding, while it is negligible for the sliding block of thick soil and rock layers (>30 m). Finally, the rainfall thresholds for the Zentoku landslide, which concern the groundwater state, underground erosion and movement of sliding blocks, were provided to further establish the warning and evacuation system.     

Stabilisation of the Stanton Lees Landslip Using an Embedded Pile Retaining Wall

A landslip occurred near the village of Stanton Lees, Derbyshire, UK, in November 2000 following a prolonged period of heavy rainfall. The slip resulted in the gradual, progressive down-slope movement of a steep embankment that was supporting an existing gabion retaining wall and a minor road which was subsequently closed to vehicular traffic. This paper describes the site; the sequence of events leading up to the start of the landslide; an interpretation of the ground conditions and onsite monitoring data; and the engineering works carried out in order to stabilise the slip and return the road to serviceability. The landslip occurred due to the superficial deposits moving over the weathered bedrock after the groundwater levels had been elevated following a prolonged period of heavy rainfall. A stability analysis indicated that the embankment was at a state of limiting equilibrium and its factor of safety on slope instability was found to be particularly sensitive to fairly minor changes in the groundwater levels. The remedial works replaced the existing gabion wall with a new cantilevered, bored pile retaining wall that comprised two rows of piles (600-mm in diameter), which were staggered in plan arrangement.     

Numerical Simulation of Rainfall-induced Xianchi Reservoir Landslide in Yunyang, Chongqing, China

A calamitous landslide happened at 22:00 on September 1, 2014 in the Yunyang area of Chongqing City, southwest China, enforcing the evacuation of 508 people and damaging 23 buildings. The landslide volume comprised 1.44 million m3 of material in the source area and 0.4 million m3 of shoveled material. The debris flow runout extended 400 m vertically and 1600 m horizontally. The Xianchi reservoir landslide event has been investigated as follows: (1) samples collected from the main body of landslide were carried out using GCTS ring shear apparatus; (2) the parameters of shear and pore water pressure have been measured; and (3) the post-failure characteristics of landslide have been analyzed using the numerical simulation method. The excess pore-water pressure and erosion in the motion path are considered to be the key reasons for the long-runout motion and the scale-up of landslides, such as that at Xianchi, were caused by the heavy rainfall. The aim of this paper is to acquired numerical parameters and the basic resistance model, which is beneficial to improve simulation accuracy for hazard assessment for similar to potentially dangerous hillslopes in China and elsewhere.     

千将坪滑坡动力学过程仿真模拟

滑坡体的失稳破坏是一个动态过程,动力学行为起着非常重要的作用。采用DDA方法对长江三峡库区千将坪滑坡的运动全过程进行了数值模拟研究。模拟方案充分依据该滑坡的地质、地形特征,按不同岩土体和地质结构面类型进行块体单元划分,模拟了滑坡发生、发展的渐进破坏过程以及滑坡触发后的运动情况。模拟结果表明,千将坪滑坡是以斜坡坡脚的局部破坏为其运动的开始阶段,并进一步牵引上部滑体,在地下水压力作用下最终产生整体滑动。     

Regional prediction of landslide hazard using probability analysis of intense rainfall in the Hoa Binh province, Vietnam

The main objective of this study is to assess regional landslide hazards in the Hoa Binh province of Vietnam. A landslide inventory map was constructed from various sources with data mainly for a period of 21 years from 1990 to 2010. The historic inventory of these failures shows that rainfall is the main triggering factor in this region. The probability of the occurrence of episodes of rainfall and the rainfall threshold were deduced from records of rainfall for the aforementioned period. The rainfall threshold model was generated based on daily and cumulative values of antecedent rainfall of the landslide events. The result shows that 15-day antecedent rainfall gives the best fit for the existing landslides in the inventory. The rainfall threshold model was validated using the rainfall and landslide events that occurred in 2010 that were not considered in building the threshold model. The result was used for estimating temporal probability of a landslide to occur using a Poisson probability model. Prior to this work, five landslide susceptibility maps were constructed for the study area using support vector machines, logistic regression, evidential belief functions, Bayesian-regularized neural networks, and neuro-fuzzy models. These susceptibility maps provide information on the spatial prediction probability of landslide occurrence in the area. Finally, landslide hazard maps were generated by integrating the spatial and the temporal probability of landslide. A total of 15 specific landslide hazard maps were generated considering three time periods of 1, 3, and 5 years.     

Landslide hazard and cascading effects following the extreme rainfall event on Madeira Island (February 2010)

Heavy rainfall on February 20, 2010, triggered numerous shallow rapid landslides across Madeira Island, a Portuguese archipelago in the North Atlantic. Two days after the extreme rainfall event, a field campaign was started which involved describing and mapping a variety of landslide types and the related losses at 120 different locations throughout the Island. Most of the failures started as debris slides or avalanches at high elevations and transformed into debris flows which rushed downslope into populated coastal areas. Over half of the mapped landslides were located in the central and southern area of the island. A further 1,257 landslide locations were revealed in these areas using remote sensing data which were then assembled in a spatial database. Due to anthropogenic influences caused by urban development and population expansion, the event demonstrated the increased vulnerability of the island??s infrastructure. In order to mitigate future losses, it is important to quantify the typical preparatory factors which contribute to rainfall-induced landslides. This increases our understanding of the hazards and associated risks. The analysis shows that based on their spatial frequency, distribution and in the context of the drainage system, three main factors contribute to the triggering of the landslides due to the heavy rainfall event in February 2010: the characteristic soil type, the land cover and the slope gradient. It can now be recognized that the distribution of landslides is highly dependent on the temporal and spatial distribution of these factors. Furthermore, the anthropogenic impact on the extent of the hazard becomes obvious due to poor settlement planning and drainage system modification.     

甘肃天水地区强降雨诱发黄土-泥岩滑坡机理实验研究

在甘肃天水地区每年由降雨诱发的黄土-泥岩滑坡灾害事故很多,给当地人民生命财产造成巨大损失。为探索该类斜坡的滑动破坏过程与机理,在野外地质调查、工程地质钻探及岩土体力学测试的基础上,通过室内大型物理模型实验,研究“上部黄土+下部泥岩”二元结构类型斜坡在强降雨作用下的动态变形演化过程,揭示该类斜坡的破坏机理和破坏模式。结果表明:强降雨作用下斜坡变形破坏以滑动破坏为主,水分的作用主要表现为增加土体自重、引起土体强度降低、降低结构面的抗滑力、产生孔隙水压力及降低有效应力等几个方面,斜坡的破坏模式则主要表现为坡肩侵蚀→微裂隙产生、发展、贯通→斜坡局部滑动破坏→斜坡整体滑动破坏。研究结果对天水地区该类滑坡的早期识别有重要的参考意义,可为该类滑坡的防灾减灾提供科学依据。