Alert system to mitigate tephra fallout hazards at Mt. Etna Volcano,Italy

Volcanic eruptions may create a wide range of risks in inhabited areas and, as a consequence, major economic damage to the surrounding territory. An example of volcanic hazard was given between 1998 and 2001 by Mt. Etna volcano, in Italy, with its frequent paroxysmal explosive activity that caused more than a hundred fire-fountain episodes. In the period January–June 2000, in particular, 64 lava fountains took place at the Southeast Crater. During the most intense explosive phase of each episode, a sustained column often formed, reaching up to 6 km above the eruptive vent. Then, the column started to expand laterally causing more or less copious tephra fallout on the slopes of Etna; ash and lapilli, therefore, constituted a serious danger for vehicular and air traffic. A software and hardware warning system was developed to mitigate the volcanic hazard indicating the areas affected by potential ash and lapilli fallout. The alert system was mainly based on the good correspondence between the pattern of volcanic tremor amplitude and the evolution of explosive activity. When a fixed tremor threshold was exceeded, a semiautomatic process started to send faxes to Civil Defence and Municipalities directly affected by tephra fallout, together with information on wind directions from the Meteorological Office. The application of this methodology, during the last 14 eruptive episodes in 2000 and the 14 events occurred in 2001, demonstrated the good correspondence between the forecasts on the areas affected by tephra fallout and the effective tephra distribution on land. Despite the integrity of the performance provided by the alert system, small discrepancies occurred in the technical procedure of alerting, for which possible solutions have been discussed. The improvement of this type of system, could become basic for the Etnean region and be proposed for similar volcanic areas throughout the world.     

GIS and Volcanic Risk Management

Volcanic catastrophes constitute a majorproblem in many developing and developed countries. Inrecent years population growth and the expansion ofsettlements and basic supply lines (e.g., water, gas,etc.) have greatly increased the impact of volcanicdisasters. Correct land-use planning is fundamental inminimising both loss of life and damage to property.In this contribution Geographical Information Systems(GIS), linked with remote sensing technology andtelecommunications/warning systems, have emerged asone of the most promising tools to support thedecision-making process. Some GIS are presented fortwo volcanic areas in Italy, Mt. Etna and Vesuvius.GIS role in risk management is then discussed, keepingin mind the different volcanic scenarios of effusiveand explosive phenomena. Mt. Etna system covers alarge area (more than 1,000 km²) potentiallyaffected by effusive phenomena (lava flows) whichcause damage to both houses and properties in general.No risk to life is expected. The time-scales of lavaflows allow, at least in principle, modification ofthe lava path by the building of artificial barriers.Vesuvius shows typically an explosive behaviour. Inthe case of a medium size explosive eruption, 600,000people would potentially have to be evacuated from anarea of about 200 km² around the Volcano, sincethey are exposed to ruinous, very fast phenomena likepyroclastic surges and flows, lahars, ash fallout,etc. Ash fallout and floods/lahars are also expectedin distal areas, between Vesuvius and Avellino,downwind of the volcano. GIS include digital elevationmodels, satellite images, volcanic hazard maps andvector data on natural and artificial features (energysupply lines, strategic buildings, roads, railways,etc.). The nature and the level of detail in the twodata bases are different, on the basis of thedifferent expected volcanic phenomena. The GIS havebeen planned: (a) for volcanic risk mitigation (hazard,value, vulnerability and risk map assessing), (b) toprovide suitable tools during an impending crisis, (c)to provide a basis for emergency plans.     

The evolution of the mantle source beneath Mt. Etna (Sicily,Italy): from the 600 ka tholeiites to the recent trachybasaltic magmas

ABSTRACT

The spatial/temporal proximity of Mt. Etna to the Hyblean Plateau and the Aeolian slab makes the discussion on the nature of its mantle source/s extremely controversial. In this study, a detailed geochemical overview of the entire Mt. Etna evolutionary sequence and a comparison with the magmatism of the Hyblean Plateau was proposed to: (i) simulate the composition of Mt. Etna tholeiitic to alkaline primitive magmas in equilibrium with a fertile mantle source; (ii) model the nature, composition and evolution of the mantle source from the tholeiitic stage (600 ka) to present magmatism. According to our simulations, two amphibole + phlogopite-bearing spinel lherzolite sources are able to explain the wide range of Etnean primary magmas. The enrichment in LILE, ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, Rb and H₂O of the magmas emitted after 1971 (but also discontinuously generated in both historic and prehistoric times) are caused by different melting proportions of amphibole and phlogopite in a modally and compositionally homogeneous mantle domain, with melting degrees analogous to those required to produce magmas erupted prior to 1971. The behaviour of the hydrous phases during melting could be ascribed to a variable H₂O/CO₂ activity in the mantle source, in turn related to the heat/fluxes supply from the asthenospheric upwelling beneath Mt. Etna. All these considerations, strengthened by numerical models, are then merged to review the complex Pliocene/Lower Pleistocene to present day’s geodynamic evolution of eastern Sicily.     

Robust Estimation for the Weibull Process Applied to Eruption Records

The Weibull process is a parsimoniously parameterized nonhomogeneous Poisson process with monotonic trend, which has been widely used in reliability applications. It has also been used in volcanology to model the process of eruption onsets for a volcano with waning or waxing activity, and thus produce hazard forecasts. However, particularly in the latter application, problems with missing or spurious data can strongly influence the parameter estimates, which are usually obtained by maximizing the log likelihood function, and hence the future hazard. We show how theory developed for robust estimation of a nonhomogeneous Poisson process can be implemented for the Weibull process. The flank eruptions of Mt. Etna, in Sicily, is one of the most complete and best studied records of volcanism. Nevertheless, a number of different catalogs exist. We show how these can be at least partially reconciled by robust estimation, and how the more dubious regions of the catalogs can be identified.     

Natural and anthropogenic sources of total suspended particulate and their contribution to the formation of black crusts on building stone materials of Catania (Sicily)

Blackening and disaggregation of exposed surfaces of stone monuments are well-known effects of stone decay taking place in polluted urban environments all over the world. This paper aims to assess the contribution of natural and anthropogenic sources of total suspended particulate (TSP) causing permanent damage (black crusts) to the stone monuments of Catania (Sicily), one of the most popular ??cities of art?? of southern Italy. Atmospheric pollution of Catania, a typical Mediterranean coastal town, is mainly contributed by vehicle exhaust emissions rather than industrial ones. Episodically, the city also suffers gaseous and ash emissions (plumes) from the nearby Mount Etna volcano. Thus, to discriminate between natural and anthropogenic contributions to stone decay on Catania monuments, black crusts and TSP were sampled within the urban area and subjected to specific analytical procedures (optical microscopy, X-ray powder diffraction, Fourier transformed infrared spectroscopy, scanning electron microscopy equipped with energy dispersive spectrometry, ionic chromatography and dual inlet mass spectrometry). Mineralogical, chemical and isotopic characterization of black crusts and TSP provided new insights concerning the partition of sulfate sources in this particular urban context. The influence of Mount Etna emissions on both TSP and black crusts compositions was shown. Nevertheless, the key role of anthropogenic sources in the total sulfate budget was confirmed, while sea spray and volcanic emissions were found to make subordinate contributions. Quantitative data useful for the identification of the threshold pollution levels for preventive conservation of Catania monuments were obtained.     

Purchasing satellite imagery for geological applications

The attractiveness of remotely sensed data to aid in the interpretation of global and local environmental processes has been widely recognized. However, some of the most common and frustrating, yet simple, questions that are asked by potential users of remotely sensed data are what images are available, from whom, and, most importantly, how much do t h q cost? As cost is often critical in deciding whether satellite imagery is to be used in a project, it is important to determine what benefits can be obtainedfrom the use of such data. These questions are examined here in the context of obtaining remotely sensed Landsat and SPOT imagery for monitoring a spectral and spatial dynamic geological feature, namely, an active volcano, Mt Etna, Sicily.     

Long-term uplift rate of the Etna volcano basement (southern Italy) based on biochronological data from Pleistocene sediments

The eastern flank of Mt. Etna volcano rests on Pleistocene marine sediments, which unconformably cover the Apenninic–Maghrebian Chain units. A quantitative biostratigraphic analysis was carried out based on the calcareous nannofossil content of the Pleistocene deposits outcropping along the S and NE periphery of the volcano. Sediments were constrained to the MNN19e and MNN19f biozones, deposited from 1.2 to 0.589 Ma. According to the depth of deposition and the present altitude of the Pleistocene succession, uplift rates are estimated between 1.1 and 1.7 mm yr⁻¹ for the northeastern sector of the Etna edifice, and between 0.36 and 0.61 mm yr⁻¹ for the southern one. This inhomogeneous long-term uplift rate affecting the Etna region, probably results from a buried thrust below the northern flank of Etna, which is related to the post-Tortonian geodynamic evolution of NE Sicily.     

Volcanic hazards to airports

Volcanic activity has caused significant hazards to numerous airports worldwide, with local to far-ranging effects on travelers and commerce. Analysis of a new compilation of incidents of airports impacted by volcanic activity from 1944 through 2006 reveals that, at a minimum, 101 airports in 28 countries were affected on 171 occasions by eruptions at 46 volcanoes. Since 1980, five airports per year on average have been affected by volcanic activity, which indicates that volcanic hazards to airports are not rare on a worldwide basis. The main hazard to airports is ashfall, with accumulations of only a few millimeters sufficient to force temporary closures of some airports. A substantial portion of incidents has been caused by ash in airspace in the vicinity of airports, without accumulation of ash on the ground. On a few occasions, airports have been impacted by hazards other than ash (pyroclastic flow, lava flow, gas emission, and phreatic explosion). Several airports have been affected repeatedly by volcanic hazards. Four airports have been affected the most often and likely will continue to be among the most vulnerable owing to continued nearby volcanic activity: Fontanarossa International Airport in Catania, Italy; Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport in Alaska, USA; Mariscal Sucre International Airport in Quito, Ecuador; and Tokua Airport in Kokopo, Papua New Guinea. The USA has the most airports affected by volcanic activity (17) on the most occasions (33) and hosts the second highest number of volcanoes that have caused the disruptions (5, after Indonesia with 7). One-fifth of the affected airports are within 30 km of the source volcanoes, approximately half are located within 150 km of the source volcanoes, and about three-quarters are within 300 km; nearly one-fifth are located more than 500 km away from the source volcanoes. The volcanoes that have caused the most impacts are Soufriere Hills on the island of Montserrat in the British West Indies, Tungurahua in Ecuador, Mt. Etna in Italy, Rabaul caldera in Papua New Guinea, Mt. Spurr and Mt. St. Helens in the USA, Ruapehu in New Zealand, Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines, and Anatahan in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (part of the USA). Ten countries—USA, Indonesia, Ecuador, Papua New Guinea, Italy, New Zealand, Philippines, Mexico, Japan, and United Kingdom—have the highest volcanic hazard and/or vulnerability measures for airports. The adverse impacts of volcanic eruptions on airports can be mitigated by preparedness and forewarning. Methods that have been used to forewarn airports of volcanic activity include real-time detection of explosive volcanic activity, forecasts of ash dispersion and deposition, and detection of approaching ash clouds using ground-based Doppler radar. Given the demonstrated vulnerability of airports to disruption from volcanic activity, at-risk airports should develop operational plans for ashfall events, and volcano-monitoring agencies should provide timely forewarning of imminent volcanic-ash hazards directly to airport operators.     

Geodetic techniques applied to the study of the Etna volcano area (Italy)

Volcanic behaviour of Mt. Etna is due to the complex interaction between both the local and the regional stress field involving the eastern Sicily. Eruptions could trigger (be triggered?) during crust extension and/or compression, which are strictly linked with the dynamics of the lower mantle. In this study, very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) space geodesy technique has been used in order to study Etna volcano’s activity by means of the crustal deformations between Noto and Matera (located on the African and the Eurasian Plates, respectively). By analysing VLBI data, we obtained the behaviour of the baseline which crosses the Etnean area, from 1990 December to 2003 March, representing the time variations of the distance between the two geodetic stations; the linear trend of the baseline shows a general increasing, pointing out an extension of the crust between them. A detailed analysis of the Noto-Matera baseline allows the identification of three parts of the VLBI curve in the considered period. In the first part of the curve (from 20/12/90 to 09/02/94), VLBI data are rather poor and therefore no reliable consideration about correlation between crust movements and volcanic and seismicity activity has been made. In the second part of the curve (from 09/02/94 to 04/09/00), VLBI data are more frequent and show slightly fluctuations in the distance. Increasing in the extension and compression were observed in the central and in the final part of this period. In the third period (from 04/09/00 to 25/03/03), VLBI data are very sparse even if the time series was quite long; therefore, to fill gaps in the information, we analysed global positioning system (GPS) data. GPS technique performs continuous observations, and we were able to highlight both extensions and compressions in detail. Comparisons between the trend of Noto-Matera baseline length variations, volcanic activity and seismicity in the Etna area show the complexity of the development over time and space of the phenomenology determined by a deep cause which can be traced, in our opinion, to the interaction between the asthenospheric mantle, deep crust and surface crust. Therefore, we state that crustal distension and compression are determined by the lower pulsating mantle.     

Clustering of seismicity at Mount Etna

The aim of this study is to understand the seismic characteristics of fault systems, which play key roles in the geodynamics of the Mt. Etna and the ascending magma. Understanding the seismic behaviour of fault systems and their relationship to volcanic and seismic phenomena may provide a useful contribution to a better understanding of dynamic processes at Mt. Etna. The seismicity in two periods (1874–1913 and 1981–1996), which include some important eruptions, have been analysed. Quantitative analysis of seismicity has been performed. Calculating fractal dimension allows us to distinguish between random, periodic and clustered scale-invariant time distributions of volcanic events. Correlations between fractal clustering evolution at long, mid and short term and eruptive processes has been found.     

Evidence of a shallow magma intrusion beneath the NE Rift system of Mt. Etna during 2013

Continuous GPS (CGPS) data, collected at Mt. Etna between April 2012 and October 2013, clearly define inflation/deflation processes typically observed before/after an eruption onset. During the inflationary process from May to October 2013, a particular deformation pattern localised in the upper North Eastern sector of the volcano suggests that a magma intrusion had occurred a few km away from the axis of the summit craters, beneath the NE Rift system. This is the first time that this pattern has been recorded by CGPS data at Mt. Etna. We believe that this inflation process might have taken place periodically at Mt. Etna and might be associated with the intrusion of batches of magma that are separate from the main feeding system. We provide a model to explain this unusual behaviour and the eruptive regime of this rift zone, which is characterised by long periods of quiescence followed by often dangerous eruptions in which vents can open at low elevation and thus threaten the villages in this sector of the volcano.     

The environmental influence of a volcanic plume,a new technique of study,Mount Etna,sicily

Detailed study of the chemistry of volcanic plumes has previously been hindered by the difficulties of sampling, particularly if data on trace elements are required. In an attempt to overcome this problem, and to learn more about the regional effects of the plume of Mt. Etna, it was decided to investigate whether lichens, which are used as indicators of aerial pollution, would be suitable for this type of study. Samples collected from the slopes of Etna were assayed, mainly for heavy metals. The results show that this technique has great potential, that lichens can be used to determine semiquantitatively the minor and trace element composition of the plume, and can detect the influence of the plume on the chemistry of local rainfall.     

Why Mt Etna?

The Etna volcano is located in an apparently anomalous position on the hinge zone of the Apennines subduction and its Na-alkaline geochemistry does not favour a magma source from the deep slab as indicated for the Aeolian K-alkaline magmatism. The steeper dip of the regional foreland monocline at the front of the Apennines in the Ionian Sea than in Sicily, implies a larger rollback of the subduction hinge in the Ionian Sea. Moreover, the lengthening of the Apennines arc needs extension parallel to the arc. Therefore, the larger southeastward subduction rollback of the Ionian lithosphere with respect to the Hyblean plateau in Sicily, should kinematically produce right-lateral transtension and a sort of vertical 'slab window' which might explain (i) the Plio-Pleistocene alkaline magmatism of eastern Sicily (e.g. the Etna volcano) and (ii) the late Pliocene to present right lateral transtensional tectonics and seismicity of eastern Sicily. The area of transfer of different dip and rollback occurs along the inherited Mesozoic passive continental margin between Sicily and the oceanic Ionian Sea, i.e. the Malta escarpment.     

The DEM or Mt. Etna: geomorphological and structural implications

Abstract

A Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of Mt. Etna is presented; it has altimetric and planimetric resolution of 1 m and 5 m, respectively, and covers an area of about 120 km . This 3-D view of Mt. Etna allowed both recognition and location of the main morphostructural and volcano-tectonic features of the volcano. A slope map has been generated from the DEM; on the basis of slope distributions and surface textures, five acclivity domains have been recognized. The largest domain, south of the summit craters, reflects the occurrence of old plateau lavas, distinct from central volcanoes which built the present Etnean volcanic system. Interaction between the central volcanoes, with their summit calderas and failed slopes, produced the other recognised domains. Furthermore, newly identified relevant morphostructural lines are discussed. © Elsevier, Paris     

The DEM of Mt. Etna: Geomorphological and structural implications

A Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of Mt. Etna is presented; it has altimetric and planimetric resolution of l m and 5 m, respectively, and covers an area of about 120 km². This 3-D view of Mt. Etna allowed both recognition and location of the main morphostructural and volcano-tectonic features of the volcano. A slope map has been generated from the DEM; on the basis of slope distributions and surface textures, five acclivity domains have been recognized. The largest domain, south of the summit craters, reflects the occurrence of old plateau lavas, distinct from central volcanoes which built the present Etnean volcanic system. Interaction between the central volcanoes, with their summit calderas and failed slopes, produced the other recognised domains. Furthermore, newly identified relevant morphostructural lines are discussed.     

LiDAR-based digital terrain analysis of an area exposed to the risk of lava flow invasion: the Zafferana Etnea territory, Mt. Etna (Italy)

The town of Zafferana Etnea, located on the southeastern slope of Mt. Etna volcano (Italy), has been repeatedly threatened by lava flows in recent centuries. The last serious threat occurred during the 1991–1993 eruption, when the lava front came to a halt only 1.7 km from the centre of town. Morphostructural data derived from light detection and ranging (LiDAR) surveys carried out on Etna in 2005 have enabled us to evaluate the risk of lava invasion in a section (16 km²) of the Zafferana Etnea territory. Qualitative and quantitative results are obtained combining the information derived from LiDAR analysis with geological, morphological and structural data using geographic information systems technology (GIS). The study quantifies in unprecedented detail the areal extent and volume of forested and urban areas and its degree of exposure to different levels of hazard from future lava invasion. Nearly 52% of the urban texture fall into areas of moderate to high risk from lava invasion. Future land use planning should take these findings into account and promote new development preferentially in areas of lower risk.     

Multivariate analysis to investigate Cl distribution in rocks from different settings

Chlorine concentration has been determined by chemical methods in 97 samples of basic rocks collected at Etna volcano (Sicily, Southern Italy), Sao Miguel (Azores Islands), and Lanzarote (Canary Islands). The samples have been processed together with data related to specific magmatic and tectonic conditions, drawn from the literature. Thus, the contents of SiO₂, K₂O, and P₂O₅ of 228 samples have been used to investigate Cl distribution in the considered environments, using principal component analysis. The log-centered variance-covariance matrix has been processed in order to overcome the closure constraints. The results indicate that a clear distinction between continental and oceanic regions can be obtained in the components space. A preliminary discriminant diagram involving chlorine thus can be proposed.     

Slope movement crisis on the east flank of Mt. Etna volcano: Models for eruption triggering and forecasting

Benchmarks installed on the upper eastern flank of Mt. Etna in 1982 have subsided continually since then, with the rate of subsidence twice accelerating prior to eruptions. The first of these eruptions was in December 1985, and the second in September 1989. This pattern of accelerating downslope movement has also been observed prior to landslides, and recent work applying knowledge of the failure of materials has shown that analysis of the inverse rate of these movements can be used to predict the time of failure. Post-eruption analyses of geodetic or seismic data from volcanoes has shown that in several cases, this approach could have been used to forecast eruptions weeks in advance. Applying the same principles to the accelerating subsidence on Mt. Etna's eastern flank prior to the eruptions of 1985 and 1989 shows that rough estimates of eruption dates could have been obtained several months in advance. These observations also suggest a speculative eruption-triggering mechanism involving an interplay between slope creep deformation and extensional weakening over the zone of intrusion.     

Iron release in aqueous environment by fresh volcanic ash from Mount Etna (Italy) and Popocatépetl (Mexico) volcanoes

In this study, we performed leaching experiments for timescales of hours-to-months in deionized water on fresh volcanic ash from Mt. Etna (Italy) and Popocatépetl (Mexico) volcanos to monitor Fe release as a function of ash mineral chemistry and size, with the aim of clarifying Fe release mechanisms and eventually evaluating the impact of volcanic ash on marine and lacustrine environments. To define sample mineralogy and Fe speciation, inclusive characterization was obtained by means of XRF, SEM, XRPD, EELS and Mössbauer spectroscopies. For Etna and Popocatépetl samples, glass proportions were quantified at 73 and 40%, Fe₂O₃ total contents at 11.6–13.2 and 5.8 wt%, and Fe³⁺/Fe_Tot ratios at 0.33 and 0.23, respectively. Leaching experiments showed that significant amounts of iron, ~?30 to 150 and ~?750 nmol g^?1 l^?1 for pristine Etna and Popocatépetl samples, respectively, are released within the first 30 min as a function of decreasing particle size (from 1 to 0.125 mm). The Popocatépetl sample showed a very sustained Fe release (up to 10 times Etna samples) all along the first week, with lowest values never below 400 nmol g^?1 l^?1 and a maximum of 1672 nmol g^?1 l^?1 recorded after 5 days. This sample, being composed of very small particles (average particle size 0.125 mm) with large surface area, likely accumulated large quantities of Fe-bearing sublimates that quickly dissolved during leaching tests, determining high Fe release and local pH decrease (that contributed to release more Fe from the glass) at short timescale (hours-to-days). The fractional Fe solubility (Fe_S) was 0.004–0.011 and 0.23% for Etna and Popocatépetl samples, respectively, but no correlation was found between Fe released in solution and either ash Fe content, glass/mineral ratio or mineral assemblage. Results obtained suggest that volcanic ash chemistry, mineralogy and particle size assume a relevant role on Fe release mostly in the medium-to-long timescale, while Fe release in the short timescale is dominated by dissolution of surface sublimates (formed by physicochemical processes occurring within the eruption plume and volcanic cloud) and the effects of such a dissolution on the local pH conditions. For all samples, a moderate to sustained Fe release occurred for leaching times comparable with their residence time within the euphotic zone of marine and lacustrine environments (variable from few minutes to few hours), revealing their possible contribution to increase Fe bioavailability.     

A review of the volcano-magnetic effects observed between 1981 and 1995 on Mount Etna (Italy)

Detection of local magnetic field perturbations has often been proposed for monitoring the modifications within the volcanic edifice of the stress field or of the thermodynamic state and providing a tool for prediction of eruptions. In order to evaluate the suitability of magnetic monitoring on Mt. Etna, we analysed two historic series of magnetic data recorded there: i) during the 1981 eruption and ii) immediately after 1989 eruption. Moreover, we examined time series associated with the intense explosive activity of Etna in 1995 summer provided by the present permanent magnetic network which was set up between 1994 and 1995.