基于多源数据的近50 a玛纳斯河流域冰川变化分析

我国新疆玛纳斯河流域的冰川变化极大影响流域内及其周边地区的经济社会发展.使用国产高分一号(GF-1)遥感影像和Landsat8数据,分别通过基于多源数据的冰川识别方法和波段比值法获取了2013年玛纳斯河流域冰川信息,结合玛纳斯河流域第一次(1964年)、第二次(2009年)冰川编目数据与1998年、2003年TM影像冰川目视解译结果等四期的冰川边界矢量数据,对玛纳斯河流域1964-2013年50 a来的冰川变化特征进行了综合分析.研究结果显示:玛纳斯河流域冰川自2009年以来有略微增加的趋势,2013年冰川面积比2009年增加了10.25 km²,这在一定程度上抑制了长期以来冰川的快速消融;1964-2013年,玛纳斯河流域的冰川总体呈减少趋势;冰川面积从1964年的673.61 km²减少到2013年的512.07 km²,面积减少161.54 km²,减少23.98%;近50 a来,流域内冰川面积在海拔4500 m及以上呈净增加趋势,而在海拔4500 m以下呈净减少趋势,冰川在海拔(4000±100) m左右退缩的速率最大,高达0.5 km²·a^-1;冰川面积的减少主要体现为大量的冰舌后退和小面积冰川的快速消融,超过85%的冰川冰舌后退距离在200 m以上;该流域的冰川变化主要集中在南、北两个坡向,在南坡向上出现明显的先减少和后增加的变化趋势;1964-2013年,玛纳斯河流域的气温和降水量呈较明显的增加趋势,线性增加率分别为0.26℃·(10a)^-1和16.07 mm·(10a)^-1.研究结果表明气温的持续升高和降水量的增加分别是导致玛纳斯河流域冰川减少期和增加期形成的主要原因.     

Glacier change and glacier runoff variation in the Tuotuo River basin,the source region of Yangtze River in western China

Glaciers in the Tuotuo River basin, western China, have been monitored in recent decades by applying topographical maps and high-resolution satellite images. Results indicate that most of glaciers in the Tuotuo River basin have retreated in the period from 1968/1971 to 2001/2002, and their shrinkage area is 3.2% of the total area in the late 1960s. To assess the influence of glacier runoff on river runoff, a modified degree–day model including potential clear-sky direct solar radiation has been applied to the glaciated regions of the river basin over the period 1961–2004. It was found that glacier runoff has increased in the last 44 years, especially in the 1990s when a two-thirds increase in river runoff was derived from the increase in glacier runoff caused by loss of ice mass in the entire Tuotuo River basin.     

Effects of land use change on landscape pattern of the Manas River watershed in Xinjiang, China

The mechanism of interaction between land use change and landscape pattern is pivotal in research concerning global environmental change. Quantitative evaluation of land use change that has resulted from excessive land development and its impact on landscape pattern are important for sustainable utilization of local land resources. The study area was the Manas River watershed, a typical watershed in an arid area. The present study evaluated the influence of long-term land use change on the landscape pattern; the findings are valuable for economic development and environmental protection. The processes for land use change and changes in landscape pattern were reconstructed and analyzed for data in topographic maps dated 1962 and in remote sensing images taken in 1976, 1989, 1999 and 2008 using mathematical models and landscape metrics. The results indicate significant changes in land use over the past 50 years, with increases in the areas of cultivated land and construction land, and a significant decrease in unused land and woodland areas; grassland and water resources first increased and then tended to decrease over this time. The comprehensive index of land use change is 0.55, indicating an unbalanced, one-way transition in the study area. Landscape fragmentation and diversity increased and landscape dominance decreased; in other words, differences between landscapes decreased. The changes resulted in a significant tendency toward diversity and fragmentation of the landscape. Therefore, large-scale intensive agricultural development can reduce the negative influence of land use change on the landscape pattern.     

Hydrochemical characteristics of typical rivers in a temperate glacier basin, China

This study focused on the chemical compositions of the rivers around Yulong Mountain, one of the typical monsoonal temperate glacier regions in China. Water samples were collected from Baishui, Sanshu and Geji hydrological stations around Mt. Yulong during rainy season. The chemical analyses indicated that the river water around Mt. Yulong was characterized by high pH values (>8.0) and EC values varied from 36.4 to 71.7 μS/cm with an average of 52.6 μS/cm. Ca²⁺ and Mg²⁺ were the dominant cations, together accounting for about 90 % of the total cations. HCO₃ ^?, followed by SO₄ ^2?, was the dominant anion. Obvious variations had been perceived during the rainy season. River water chemistry in rainy season was mainly influenced by precipitation and rock weathering. The proportions of Na⁺, K⁺, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺ and SO₄ ^2? from precipitation in river water were 23.44, 9.66, 3.10, 17.81 and 10.48 %, respectively. In addition, the ion characteristics of river water were mainly influenced by carbonate weathering. The human activities should not be ignored though its influence was little.     

Features of climate change and their effects on glacier snow melting in Xinjiang,China

The features of climate change and their effects on glacier snow melting in the past 50 years (1961–2010) in Xinjiang were studied. Regional climate data for 49 meteorological stations in the Tianshan Mountains and the northern and southern areas of Xinjiang were collected with the aid of techniques such as climatological statistical diagnosis, regional climate models, remote sensing, and geographic information system. The annual average temperature displayed a rising trend across the Tianshan mountainous area and both areas of Xinjiang. The trend was particularly apparent in winter and autumn with the rate of increase in the annual average minimum temperature being significantly higher than that of the maximum temperature. Rainfall also tended to increase in all three areas over the 50-year period, with the magnitude of change being highest in the mountainous area followed by northern Xinjiang and then southern Xinjiang. As a result of the rising temperatures, there was a negative material balance among the region's glaciers, of which the year 1982/1983 was the key year for the development of Tianshan mountain glacier snow. After this date, glacial ablation intensified with an annual change increase in average temperature of 1 °C, leading to a glacier material balance change of about 300 mm. To establish rainfall and temperature sequences for three regional climate change scenarios in the 2011–2050 period, we adopted the delta method using actual measurements during the 1961–2000 period against corrected data from rainfall and temperature simulations. All three scenarios indicated that temperatures will continue to increase, that the increase in rainfall may decrease in mountainous regions but will increase in the basin, and that the speed of glacial ablation in Xinjiang will continue to accelerate.     

石羊河流域冰川变化与地形因子的关系探究

Taking the Shiyang River basin of Gansu Province as the research area, using GIS and RS technologies combined with manual visual interpretation, the glacier boundary remote sensing images were extracted of 1995, 2002, 2009, 2015 and 2016. Three terrain factors, i. e., slope, orientation and elevation, are extracted, in combine with DEM data. Based on correlation analysis and GeoDetector, the correlation between glacier change and topographic factor was analyzed, and the spatial relationship between glacier change and topographic factors was studied. The results show that: (1) the annual average area change rate of glaciers in the region had changed from-1.27% • a^-1 in 1973-1995 to-2. 87% • a^-1 in 2015-2016;the ablation rate had accelerated, and the small glaciers with an area less than 0. 1 km2 had retreated significantly;(2) the main orientations of glacial distribution in the Basin were N, NE and NW, which had a certain correlation with the change of the glaciers;but those on the south slopes had retreated faster;(3) the slope had related to the change of glacier, so did the altitude, which had controlled the ablation rate of glaciers;the lower the altitude, the fast the glacier retreating;(4) the influence of topographic factors on spatial differentiation of glacial changes was significantly different;altitude was the most control factor for spatial differentiation of glacial changes, followed by orientation and then by slope. © 2019 Science Press (China).     

冰川物质平衡模式及其对比研究——以祁连山黑河流域十一冰川研究为例

冰川物质平衡是冰川连结气候和水资源的纽带, 对其的观测和模拟始终是冰川与气候变化研究领域的重点和前缘之一. 以祁连山黑河流域十一冰川为参照冰川, 结合实测物质平衡验证资料, 建立了基于冰川表面能量平衡的冰川物质平衡模型(物理模型)和基于温度参数、温度-辐射参数和温度-辐射-水汽压参数的三种度日因子模型(统计模型), 并对模拟结果进行了分析及评估. 结果表明: 净辐射是冰川表面最主要的能量来源, 占能量收入的82.3%; 其次为感热供热, 占收入的17.7%. 净长波辐射基本为负, 吸收的热量主要通过融化和蒸发/升华方式消耗, 分别占能量支出的84.7%和15.3%. 加入净短波辐射和水汽压参数的度日因子-物质平衡模型的模拟效果提高显著, 相对误差为7%, 与能量平衡模型的模拟误差6.7%, 相差不大. 研究表明, 能量-物质平衡模型的物理意义明确, 模拟能力强大, 尤其在日尺度上有绝对的优势; 统计物质平衡模型在特定的地理条件和气候条件下表现出不佳, 对于一些极端值的模拟能力欠缺, 但是具有输入变量少, 计算简单的优点. 研究结果对黑河流域乃至整个祁连山地区的冰川物质平衡模拟方法的建立具有参考意义.     

Effects of AO and Pacific SSTA on severe droughts in Luanhe River basin,China

Natural Hazards - In the (re)insurance industry, the risk from natural hazards such as earthquakes or floods is quantified by models for natural catastrophes, also called NatCat models. One...     

Regional climate change and its effects on the runoff of Manas River,Xinjiang, China

The effects of climate change on annual runoff were analyzed on the basis of hydrologic and meteorological data for the past 50 years recorded by six meteorological stations and the Kenswatt Hydrological Station in the headstream of the Manas River watershed. The long-term trends of climate change and hydrological variations were determined in a nonparametric test, and the periodicities were determined employing the extrapolation method of periodic variance analysis. Subsequently, a periodicity-trend superposition model was used to predict future change. The results show that both the climate factors (temperature and precipitation) and runoff have increased considerably and have significant relations; the relation between temperature and runoff is the more significant. There is periodicity of 18 years in the change in annual runoff, and the primary periodicity of changes in temperature and precipitation is, respectively, 3 and 15 years. The runoff variations are affected by climate change in the headstream, but do not shift simultaneously with abrupt changes in temperature and precipitation in the headstream. There is a significant positive relationship in winter between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and runoff, while there are negative correlations annually and in summer for the runoff lagging the NAO by 1 year. The NAO has certain effects on climate change that are mainly due to atmospheric circulation in the Manas River Basin, and thus, the NAO affects the runoff.     

Distribution and migration mechanism of fluoride in groundwater in the Manas River Basin,Northwest China

Elevated fluoride (F) concentration in groundwater is posing a public health risk in the Manas River Basin (MRB), Northwest China. Based on the characterization of regional groundwater flow, 90 groundwater samples from aquifers were analyzed, along with top-soil leachate and pore-water samples from aquitards. Stable oxygen (δ¹⁸O) and hydrogen isotopes, radiocarbon and hydrochemical analyses of the groundwater and pore-water samples were conducted to trace groundwater hydrological and hydrochemical processes and thereby understand the distribution and migration mechanism of F. The groundwater is recharged by meteoric precipitation through vapor condensation processes in the Tianshan Mountains. The F concentration in groundwater samples from this basin ranged from 0.11 to 48.15 mg/L (mean 2.56 mg/L). In 37 of the 90 groundwater samples, the F concentrations were above the safe level for drinking water. The F concentrations progressively increased with the residence time and well depths in the northwest of the alluvial-fluvial plain, where groundwater is overexploited for agricultural and domestic use. Positive correlations between F and sodium (Na)/calcium (Ca) indicate that the enrichment and migration of F are influenced by cation exchange processes under high-Na and alkaline pH conditions. The relationships between δ¹⁸O and F and chloride (Cl) concentrations were nonlinear due to leaching and mixing processes. This shows that vertical leaching by irrigation return flow and mixing with pore water are the dominant processes driving the migration of F in the groundwater flow system of MRB, in addition to geochemical processes.     

Major element chemistry of the Huai River basin, China

The chemistry of major ions (Ca, Mg, Na, K, HCO₃, SO₄, Cl and Si) in the water of the Huai River basin was studied, based on samples from 52 sites from nine different water bodies in July 2008. Ions and total dissolved solids (TDS) displayed clear spatial patterns with lower concentrations in the south and higher in the north of the basin; the same conditions were also found in the East Line of South-North Water Transfer Project (SNWTP) in this region. The Huai River main channel and Hongze Lake have moderate ion concentrations relative to the whole basin. TDS concentrations versus the weight ratios of Na/(Na + Ca) and ternary ions demonstrate that the southern rivers (Shi R. and Pi R.) are mainly controlled by the weathering of carbonates, whereas the northern water systems (Guo R., Shaying R., Nansi Lake and its tributaries) are dominated by the weathering of evaporites. The Huai River main channel, Hongze Lake and the East Line of SNWTP are synergistically influenced by weathering of evaporites and carbonates, yet Hongze Lake and the East Line of SNWTP are mainly controlled by evaporation and crystallization processes. This study also confirmed that the Huai River is the geographic division between southern and northern China. Most rivers of this basin have very high ionic composition relative to the global median and other world rivers. The spatial patterns and ionic composition also suggest that intensive anthropogenic activities in northern areas of this basin are well characterized. A comparison with WHO and Chinese standards for drinking water indicates that the northern water systems of this basin are not suitable for use as drinking water sources, and pollution control should be improved and enhanced in northern areas of the basin.     

粉尘颗粒物对祁连山老虎沟冰川融水理化性质的影响

基于2012年消融期6~9月在祁连山老虎沟12号冰川采集冰川融水径流样品,分析探讨冰川融水中粉尘颗粒物对融水理化性质的影响。结果表明,粉尘特征在消融期的变化很好地反映了冰川消融过程,融水中粉尘浓度和粒径众数在冰川强烈消融期的7月份表现为最高。粉尘体积粒径分布主要包括大气气溶胶超细颗粒（0~3.0 μm,主要为PM 2.5）,大气粉尘颗粒（3.0~20 μm）,以及局地源的粗颗粒（20~100 μm）;对雪冰消融释放的粉尘部分（3.0~20 μm）粒径分布正态拟合结果说明,融水中粉尘颗粒物有很大部分来源于积雪中的粉尘运移所致。同时,融水中化学离子相对组成及其浓度消融期变化都与粉尘有较好的一致性,意味着粉尘对融水化学要素有重要影响。此外,pH值和电导率（EC）消融期的变化也反映了粉尘对融水物理指标的影响。在粉尘浓度较高时,融水pH值和电导率也表现出高值;融水径流中的悬移质颗粒物（SPM）浓度和溶解质固体（TDS）浓度具有较为一致的变化过程,反映了粉尘对于融水中溶解质含量也有较大影响。     

Effects of climate change on spring wheat phenophase and water requirement in Heihe River basin,China

Climate change has significantly altered the temperature rhythm which is a key factor for the growth and phenophase of the crop. And temperature change further affects crop water requirement and irrigation system. In the north-west of China, one of the most important crop production bases is Heihe River basin where the observed phenological data is scarce. This study thus first adopted accumulated temperature threshold (ATT) method to define the phenological stages of the crop, and analysed the effect of climate change on phenological stages and water requirement of the crop during growing season. The results indicated the ATT was available for the determination of spring wheat phenological stages. The start dates of all phenological stages became earlier and the growing season length (days) was reduced by 7 days under climate change. During the growing season, water requirement without consideration of phenophase change has been increased by 26.1 mm, while that with consideration of phenophase change was featured in the decrease of water requirement by 50 mm. When temperature increased by 1°C on average, the changes were featured in the 2 days early start date of growing season, 2 days decrease of growing season length, and the 1.4 mm increase of water requirement, respectively.     

Hunger and river basin development in Africa: Some socioeconomic issues

New concerns with African drought and famine have redirected attention to the great potential of African rivers dramatically to increase food production. The recent history of irrigation, however, has proved otherwise. This is partly due to policy makers' failure systematically to consider the socio-economics of land/water use in river basins in their development plans. This paper focuses on the socioeconomic dimensions of African river basin development and argues that a better incorporation of such systems in development plans will aid African countries more effectively to achieve their food production and development goals.     

Assessment of wetland fragmentation in the Tarim River basin, western China

The wetlands in the middle and lower reaches of the Tarim River are a rich area of biodiversity and natural resources in the inland arid region of China. However, this wetland area has decreased in size during the past several decades. Water quality and biodiversity has declined due to expanded agricultural activities since 1960s. Using remote sensing (RS), geographic information system (GIS) and global positioning system (GPS) techniques, we investigated the dynamics, spatial patterns and fragmentation of the wetlands in the middle and lower reaches of the Tarim River from 1980 to 2000. We found that the total area of the wetlands was reduced by 45.8% and the density of the patches increased four times from 1980 to 1990. From 1990 to 2000, though the total area of the wetlands slightly increased the number of the patches increased three times and the density of the patches doubled. Based on the analyses of transition matrixes, diversity and fragmentation indexes, and spatial distribution alternation of the wetlands, we found the landscape diversity and fragmentation indices increased while wetland dominance index decreased dramatically. Among the wetland types, the areas of the river-channel, reservoir and pond wetlands increased while the areas of the lake and marsh wetlands decreased continuously.     

Flood scaling under nonstationarity in Daqinghe River basin,China

Natural Hazards - Flood scaling issue is usually studied under stationary conditions. However, in recent decades, climate change and anthropogenic activities have changed hydrological processes,...     

Environmental effects of water resource development and use in the Tarim River basin of northwestern China

The unbridled development and use of water resources in the Tarim River basin over the last 50 years have led to a serious degradation of soil (>12×10³ km² of land desertified between the 1960s and 1990s) and water quality (rise in maximum salinity was from 1.3 g l^–1 in 1960, to 4.0 g l^–1 in 1981–1984, and to 7.8 g l^–1 in 1998). Approximately 300 km of the lower reaches of the river course dried up between the 1950s and 1970s, seriously altering the downstream hydrological processes (a 4–6 m drop in groundwater levels from the 1960s to the 1980s, and 0.2 m yr^–1 thereafter) and ecosystems (67% and 50% decrease (1958–1978) in Populus euphratica forest acreage and biomass, respectively). Between the 1950s and 1990s, 3820 km² of P. euphratica forest and 200 km² of shrub- and grassland were lost in the lower reaches of the Tarim River. In this study, based on estimates of soil organic carbon in desertified lands, it has been found that in the last 30 years (1970–2000), approximately 112 Tg of organic carbon (28% originating in the 0–1.0 m soil profile) has been released into the atmosphere as a result of soil degradation in the Tarim River basin. Intensive anthropogenic disturbance has been one of the foremost factors leading to the deterioration of water resources in this region. The key to solving these problems is to enhance the scientific and technical level of monitoring, management, and restoration of water resources and associated water and soil components of local ecosystems.     

新疆玛纳斯河流域洪水预报研究

在充分考虑了融雪径流型河流自身特点的基础上,将自回归滑动平均模型ARMA(p,q),概化为ARMA(p,1),并运用最小信息(AIC)准则,确定模型的最佳阶数p,运用修正的可变遗忘因子递推最小二乘法,进行参数的动态修正,达到了最佳参数的跟踪效果.通过在玛纳斯河流域应用,表明该模型具有较高的预报精度,其确定性系数均达到了0.90以上,径流总量相对误差控制在7%以下,洪峰流量相对误差<10%,峰现时差≤2.     

基于ETM+的积雪提取方法研究——以新疆玛纳斯河流域为例

为了高精度地提取积雪信息, 消除森林覆盖区以及结冰河流水体对于积雪信息提取的影响, 以Landsat ETM+为数据源, 分析了玛纳斯河流域积雪信息提取的归一化差值积雪指数阈值, 并建立积雪信息提取方法. 对研究区进行了积雪信息提取, 并与国际数据服务平台所得的积雪信息提取结果进行了比较. 结果表明: 基于Landsat数据利用归一化差值积雪指数提取积雪信息时, 其合理阈值应为0.37; 通过总体精度以及Kappa相关系数在结冰水体区域以及森林覆盖区域的提取结果进行对比, 认定所使用的提取方法更加准确可靠.