考虑动态汇流路径的时变分布式单位线

针对现有分布式单位线汇流理论未考虑土壤含水量变化引起的时变汇流路径问题,提出动态汇流路径新概念,推求同时考虑降雨强度和土壤含水量时空分布的坡面流速计算公式,引入地形指数刻画流域蓄水能力空间分布,从而获得栅格尺度流域流速分布场,进一步建立不同蓄满状态下流域动态汇流路径集合,最终实现考虑动态汇流路径的时变分布式单位线推求。以龙虎圩和东石流域为实例,通过SCS模型计算产流量,采用本文所提方法进行汇流计算,引入涵盖低流量误差、高流量误差及洪量误差的多目标优化方法率定参数,2个典型流域28场洪水预报结果表明,洪峰流量相对误差在±15%内,峰现时间误差在±6 h之间,纳什效率系数平均值超过0.8,与现有方法相比,所提方法能更加准确地反映汇流时间分布场,提高了洪水预报精度。     

GIS支持下的小流域设计洪水过程线推求

浙江省衢州庙源溪为典型的山区河流,庙源溪雨量丰富,河流比降大,源短流急,洪水陡涨陡落,汇流速度快,洪峰流量大。基于GIS的不规则三角网和空间分析功能,实现水文特征值等值线的内插。根据GIS获取的水文特征值,计算不同历时平均点雨量,考虑点面折算系数,得到平均面雨量。通过频率分析,获得不同频率下的设计雨量。采用瞬时单位线法,进行汇流计算,推求设计洪水过程线及洪峰流量,为制作山洪风险图,建立小流域防洪避洪保障体系提供依据。     

山丘平圩混合区小流域水文分析计算方法研究

洪水灾害常常给社会造成严重的经济损失,小流域洪水汇流速度快,易对下游造成瞬时毁灭性灾害,采取有效的小流域治理措施是必须的。根据山丘平圩区小流域特点分析比较设计洪水的计算方法,推荐采用瞬时单位线法,同时对小流域分片设计洪水组合进行了研究分析。以团结河流域上段治理为例进行具体分析,计算出该流域20年一遇防洪设计流量为472.60m3/s,为类似该地区的山丘、平原、圩区混合区设计洪水分析总结经验,提供参考,具有现实意义。     

Combination of GIS and mathematical modeling to predict floods in semiarid areas: case of Rheraya watershed (Western High Atlas,Morocco)

The Tinitine sub-watershed of Rheraya is renowned for its semiarid climate, irregular supply of water flow, and its historical floods; for these reasons, it is classified as vulnerable areas during a rainfall event. We conducted this study to propose flood prediction models adapted to this risky zone. For this, a hydrological method of flood forecasting rainfall-runoff used to determine a model conforms to the semiarid basin. This model is based on the articulation of the series production and transfer function. The goal of the production function is to determine the portion of the rainfall runoff, which is performed by two approaches that differ in their structures: (1) the first approach is based on the mathematical model of Horton; (2) the second approach is based on the determination of the part of the rain contributes to runoff and obtained by a spatial map of runoff coefficient (GIS). The transfer function is based on the two models of Clark and Nash, rainy efficient routes to the catchment outlet from a unit hydrograph. The characteristic parameters of these models are obtained through the application of mathematical optimization methods such as genetic algorithms. Thereby, the coupling function producing Horton (identified by the parameters: initial infiltration?=?15.03, final infiltration?=?0.3, and phi?=?0.45) and Clark transfer function (identified by the parameters C_A?=?0.21 and C_B?=?0.79) was given very satisfying results, mainly the low difference between observed and simulated hydrograph and Nash coefficient which is about 85%. This shows the interest of this coupling model in flood forecasting.     

Evaluation of rainfall spatial correlation effect on rainfall-runoff modeling uncertainty,considering 2-copula

Lack of accuracy of rainfall-runoff simulation (RRS) remains critical for some applications. Among various sources of uncertainty, precipitation plays a particular role. Rainfall rates as the main input data of RRS are of the first factors controlling the accuracy. In addition to the depth, spatial and temporal distributions of rainfall impact the flood discharge. Most of the previous studies on RRS uncertainty have ignored rainfall spatial distribution, where in large catchments, it is necessary to be modeled explicitly. Karoon III is one most important basin of the Iran because of the Karoon III dam in the outlet. In the present work, effect of spatial correlation of rainfall on HEC-HMS (SMA) continuous RRS uncertainty is evaluated using 2variate copula (2copula). Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) approach was used to consider the rainfall spatial dependence. To reduce the computational expense, sampling efficiency and convergence for MCS, Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) was used. Copula functions consider wide range of marginal probability distribution functions (PDFs), eliminating limits of regular join PDFs. For this aim, two scenarios were investigated. In the first scenario, sub-basin rainfall was considered independent, and in the second scenario, 2copula was adopted to model spatial correlation of rainfall. Dimensionless rainfall depths were calculated for each sub-basin, and the PDFs were determined. The generated random dimensionless rainfalls were reweighted and multiplied by watershed’s mean rainfall value. Stochastic Climate Library was used to generate continuous daily rainfalls. Sampling from dimensionless rainfalls using LHS algorithm, 100 runs of calibrated model-simulated 100 flows for each day following MCS, and 80 % certainty bound was calculated. Results showed that considering dependence decreased 18 % of the maximum uncertainty bound width, so the methodology could be recommended for decreasing predicted runoff error.     

Iso-flood severity mapping: a new tool for distributed flood source identification

Flood hazard increasingly threatens human communities that occupy floodplains. Economic planning of control measures relies on identification and prioritization of the flood source areas in the watershed draining to the threatened reach. Distribution of flood control activities in proportion to the priority of flood source areas can reduce excessive costs and increase flood control efficiency. In this research, a distributed Clark-based rainfall-runoff model in conjunction with a hydrologic routing model was calibrated and validated in the watershed of interest. Then, a 2 * 2 km² discretization scheme was implemented to represent some 200 pixels for flood source identification. The unit flood response (UFR) approach was then carried out at pixel scale. This step resulted in, for the first time, a distributed flood index map, which identifies and ranks pixels with high impact on the flood regime of the flood-threatened reach. The iso-flood severity map can be also extracted in a contour format.     

Flood hazard in Wadi Rahbaa area, Egypt

In the last decade, attention has been devoted to the southern part of the Egyptian Red Sea coast due to the large touristic and mining activities. Egypt spares no effort to develop it, to build new urban communities, and to create new job opportunities. Many comprehensive planning studies have been conducted. Many luxurious tourist spots, airports, and harbors have been constructed. These areas are subjected to flash floods, which represent a frequent threat to these urbanization activities that may cause losses in livelihood. By analyzing the geomorphologic features of the study area, intense stream networks are detected that, with the available metrological data, require flood management and analysis to mitigate the possible negative effects and to benefit from the estimation of flood water. Rahbaa basin is a sub-catchment of wadi Hodin. Flash floods within this area threaten the Red Sea coastal plain as well as the main coastal roads. It also directly drained out to the sea, which leads to a loss of huge amounts of flood water that is useful for arid regions. Using geographic information system and remote-sensing tools with the application of a comprehensive graphical modeling (watershed modeling system) supports the hydrological modeling of HEC-1. The total amount of runoff is calculated and the hydrograph of the 50-year return period is computed using rainfall historical data.     

Flood frequency analysis based on simulated peak discharges

Flood frequency approaches vary from statistical methods, directly applied on the observed annual maximum flood series, to adopting rainfall–runoff simulation models that transform design rainfalls to flood discharges. Reliance on statistical flood frequency analysis depends on several factors such as the selected probability distribution function, estimation of the function parameters, possible outliers, and length of the observed flood series. Through adopting the simulation approach in this paper, watershed-average rainfalls of various occurrence probabilities were transformed into the corresponding peak discharges using a calibrated hydrological model. A Monte Carlo scheme was employed to consider the uncertainties involved in rainfall spatial patterns and antecedent soil moisture condition (AMC). For any given rainfall depth, realizations of rainfall spatial distribution and AMC conditions were entered as inputs to the model. Then, floods of different return periods were simulated by transforming rainfall to runoff. The approach was applied to Tangrah watershed in northeastern Iran. It was deduced that the spatial rainfall distribution and the AMCs exerted a varying influence on the peak discharge of different return periods. Comparing the results of the simulation approach with those of the statistical frequency analysis revealed that, for a given return period, flood quantiles based on the observed series were greater than the corresponding simulated discharges. It is also worthy to note that existence of outliers and the selection of the statistical distribution function has a major effect in increasing the differences between the results of the two approaches.     

Effect of watershed partitioning on hydrologic parameters and estimation of hydrograph of an ungauged basin: a case study in Gokirmak and Kocanaz,Turkey

The main goal of this study is to investigate the effect of the size of the subbasins of a watershed on the hydrologic parameters and their spatial variability in an estimation of the hydrologic parameters and hydrograph of a neighbouring ungauged basin. In this paper, Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS), a semi-distributed hydrologic model, is used to calibrate and cross-validate two flood events occurred in 1998 and then validate four other flood events occurred in 1991, 1994, 2002, and 2009 in Gokirmak Basin in Western Black Sea Region, Turkey. The basin is divided into seven different subbasins to investigate the effect of watershed partitioning on calibrated hydrologic parameters of each subbasin using the peak-weighted root mean square error method as an objective function and the hydrograph at the outlet of the whole basin. It is found out that as the geometric magnitudes of the subbasins changed, the calibrated values of the hydrologic parameters of those subbasins changed as well. Then, a neighbouring basin, Kocanaz, is considered as an assumed neighbouring ungauged basin to investigate the effect of watershed partitioning of a gauged basin on the estimation of hydrograph of a neighbouring ungauged basin. Hydrologic parameters and direct runoff hydrograph of assumed ungauged neighbouring basin are estimated from the hydrologic parameters of the HEC-HMS calibration results of Gokirmak. Statistical indicators of the simulation results for each basin partitioning were graded with respect to the boundary values of the simulation outputs to find the best alternative. The grading results show that the simulation results with a single basin gave better representation among all other partitioning except two flood events.     

Assessing flash flood hazard in an arid mountainous region

Although flash floods are one of the major natural disasters that may hamper human development in arid areas, aspects of the process leading to their initiation remain uncertain and poorly understood. In the present study, wadi El-Alam Basin, one of the major basins in the Eastern Desert of Egypt that is frequently subjected to severe flash flood damage, is selected for investigation. Here, a hydrological modeling approach was used to predict flash flood hazard within the basin. Earlier work conducted for the same basin showed that such approach is successful and was able to accurately highlight the locations of historical flood damage. However, such work was based on one set of arbitrary model parameters. The present study has taking into account the rainfall as the excitation factor in the adopted hydrological modeling. The study aims to build on the earlier study by investigating impacts of variation of rainfall depth, areal coverage, and location on flash flood generation. Results demonstrate that the basin under study requires a rainstorm intensity of at least 40 mm in order to initiate surface runoff with a noticeable flood peak at its main outlet. The location of rainstorm has a major effect on the shape of the basin final hydrograph. Furthermore, in the study basin, the upstream flood appears to be of a magnitude and a peak flow that is much higher than those for downstream ones, which believes to be strongly attributed to the surface steepness and impermeability of the former. The used approach shows to be useful in the rapid assessing of flash flood hazard in mountainous desert and could be adopted, with appropriate modifications, elsewhere in arid regions.     

淮河流域近500年洪旱事件演变特征分析

为了认识淮河流域过去500年洪旱事件发生规律并鉴别当前的洪旱情势,收集并对比分析了流域实测降雨资料、重建历史雨季降雨资料、历史旱涝等级资料、历史洪旱文献记录和历史调查洪水资料等多源洪旱灾害数据。以重建历史雨季降雨资料和历史旱涝等级资料为主要依据,通过滑动平均、频率计算、小波分析和突变检验等方法,分析流域过去500年洪水干旱时空分布特征和演变规律。结果表明,17世纪淮河流域洪旱灾害最严重,但20世纪极端洪旱事件发生频次最多。淮河流域洪旱事件存在40年左右的稳定长周期,主周期从18世纪的15~20年逐渐减少到19世纪的5年周期,近20年来出现2~3年的主周期,洪旱灾害事件呈增加趋势,流域社会经济发展面临着严峻的洪旱灾害威胁。     

How to update design floods after the construction of small reservoirs and check dams: A case study from the Daqinghe river basin,China

Several small reservoirs and a large number of check dams had been constructed in the Wangkuai reservoir watershed after 1970s, and flood time series lacked stationarity, which affected the original design flood hydrographs for the Wangkuai reservoir. Since the location, storage capacity and drainage area of the large number of check dams were unknown, we present a method to estimate their total storage capacities (TSC) and total drainage areas (TDA) by using the recorded rainstorm and flood data. On the basis of TSC and TDA, the flood events which occurred in an undisturbed period were reconstructed under current conditions to obtain a stationary flood series. A frequency analysis was subsequently performed to assess the design flood peak and volume for both small and medium design floods with a 10–200 year return period. For large and catastrophic floods, it was assumed that the upstream check dams and small reservoirs would be destroyed, and water stored in these hydraulic structures were re-routed to the Wangkuai reservoir by unit hydrograph. The modified flood peak and volume decreased for floods with a 10–200 year return period when compared to the current design flood. But for large design floods with a return period exceeding 500 years, peak discharge increased. This study provides a new method for design flood calculation or modification of the original design flood in watersheds with a large number of check dams.     

考虑降雨时空变化的单位线研究

流域降雨的时空变异性和地形地貌特征，以及不确定性因素对单位线的影响始终是流域汇流计算方法研究的难点问题。本文分析了传统的根据降雨时空分布不均匀性对单位线进行分类的方法及其缺点，推导了考虑暴雨重心位置和降雨强度的影响的S曲线法，给出了新的S曲线方程，建立了S曲线参数与暴雨重心位置和降雨强度的关系，采用该方法可求得任一暴雨重心位置及任一降雨强度下的时段单位线。该方法具有谢尔曼经验单位线简便实用的特点，又具有考虑降雨时空变异性的优点，在沮河流域洪水预报模型中的应用表明该方法是可行的。     

基于分布式水文模拟的三峡区间洪水预报(Ⅰ)——模型构建及验证

长江三峡区间因暴雨形成的洪水峰高量大,对三峡水库的防洪安全和运行调度的影响很大.本论文依据三峡地区的地形地貌特征,采用基于GIS的机理性分布式水文模型,来模拟三峡区间入库洪水,以尽量减少洪水预报中的不确定性.利用近期建成的78个自动雨量站网监测的小时降雨信息作为模型的输入,对模型参数进行了率定和验证,结果表明:大多数洪水过程的模拟精度较好,但也有的模拟结果较差,其中降雨信息缺失是洪水预报不确定性的主要来源.     

山区小流域洪水分布模式模拟与危险性评估

流域暴雨山洪过程时空异质性强,准确评估雨洪变化特性和洪水危险性对山洪灾害防治具有重要意义。以7个降雨特征指标和6个洪水特征指标刻画流域场次雨洪特性,采用中国山洪水文模型和洪水频率指标相结合,模拟和评估口前流域洪水过程及其危险性。结果表明：场次洪水洪峰模数、洪峰时间偏度、高脉冲历时占比、涨落洪速率与降雨总量、平均雨量、最大雨强、雨峰位置系数、基尼系数等降雨特征指标显著相关,三场致灾洪水过程的降雨均呈现量级大、强度大、历时短、暴雨中心偏中下游的特点;率定期和验证期的平均径流深相对误差均在9%以内,平均洪峰流量相对误差均在11%以内,平均峰现时间误差均在1.7 h以内,平均Nash-Sutcliffe系数为0.80和0.76;各场次洪水有0.0%～93.3%的河段流量达到一般危险及以上等级,三场致灾洪水过程的危险性等级最高,分别有80.0%、35.0%和1.7%的小流域河段流量达到高危险及以上等级。研究可为山区小流域暴雨洪水危险性评估、灾害响应和复盘等提供技术支撑。     

流域汇流的概率论体系探讨

基于统计物理学观点,给出了净雨过程和流域出口断面流量过程的概率论解释。在此基础上,应用概率论中随机变数函数分布的理论导出了卷积公式,获得了不同于Rodriguez-Iturbe等对流域瞬时单位线所作的概率解释,且前提条件更为明确。证明了流域瞬时单位线的一阶原点矩、流域滞时和平均流域汇流时间是完全等价的,从而为计算平均流域汇流时间提供了一个概念明晰、操作简便的计算方法。给出了两个应用概率论方法确定流域瞬时单位线的方法,其中之一是笔者提出的。     

Evaluation of real-time flash flood forecasts for Haiti during the passage of Hurricane Tomas, November 4–6, 2010

The January 2010 earthquake that devastated Haiti left its population ever more vulnerable to rainfall-induced flash floods. A flash flood guidance system has been implemented to provide real-time information on the potential of small (~70 km²) basins for flash flooding throughout Haiti. This system has components for satellite rainfall ingest and adjustment on the basis of rain gauge information, dynamic soil water deficit estimation, ingest of operational mesoscale model quantitative precipitation forecasts, and estimation of the times of channel flow at bankfull. The result of the system integration is the estimation of the flash flood guidance (FFG) for a given basin and for a given duration. FFG is the amount of rain of a given duration over a small basin that causes minor flooding in the outlet of the basin. Amounts predicted or nowcasted that are higher than the FFG indicate basins with potential for flash flooding. In preparation for Hurricane Tomas’ landfall in early November 2010, the FFG system was used to generate 36-h forecasts of flash flood occurrence based on rainfall forecasts of the nested high-resolution North American Model of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Assessment of the forecast flood maps and forecast precipitation indicates the utility and value of the forecasts in understanding the spatial distribution of the expected flooding for mitigation and disaster management. It also highlights the need for explicit uncertainty characterization of forecast risk products due to large uncertainties in quantitative precipitation forecasts on hydrologic basin scales.     

模式单位线的推求与应用

单位线与之对应的影响因素，构成了一个模式单位线。模式单位线是由选择的历史洪水经过聚类，然后由同类型洪水推求出来的，因而提高了单位线的代表性。单位线用曲线分段拟合，简化了推求和修改中设试过程，便于计算机实现。文中以柴河水库为背景，对此法进行了详细说明，并用实际洪水过程进行了试报，表明了此法的可行性。     

Effects of land use change on flood characteristics in mountainous area of Daqinghe watershed, China

Land use has changed in the Daqinghe watershed during 1956–2005, and it has influenced the flood peak and volume. In order to reveal the effects of land use change on flood characteristics in Daqinghe watershed, we selected 2 sub-watersheds and used remote-sensed land use data of 1980 and 1996 to analyze changes in land use and also selected several combinations of similar rainfall events and the corresponding flood events to show how changes in land use affect floods. The forest and urban area increased and other types decreased, and flood peaks and volumes tended to decrease under similar rainfall events. To quantify the extent of change in land use affecting floods, a hydrological model incorporating the land use was established. The model combines infiltration excess and saturation excess runoff generation mechanism in each type of land use, and the simulation results agreed well with the measured flood processes in the two selected watersheds. Several floods of different return intervals were selected to be modeled under the 1980 and 1996 land use conditions. The results show that both flood peak and volume decreased under the 1996 land use condition in comparison with the 1980 land use condition in the two watersheds. Most of the flood peaks decreased <5 %, but the volume decreased to a greater extent. This result can be helpful in modifying design flood.     

Quantifying the effects of subsurface heterogeneity on hillslope runoff using a stochastic approach

The role of heterogeneity and uncertainty in hydraulic conductivity on hillslope runoff production was evaluated using the fully integrated hydrologic model ParFlow. Simulations were generated using idealized high-resolution hillslopes configured both with a deep water table and a water table equal to the outlet to isolate surface and subsurface flow, respectively. Heterogeneous, correlated random fields were used to create spatial variability in the hydraulic conductivity. Ensembles, generated by multiple realizations of hydraulic conductivity, were used to evaluate how this uncertainty propagates to runoff. Ensemble averages were used to determine the effective runoff for a given hillslope as a function of rainfall rate and degree of subsurface heterogeneity. Cases where the water table is initialized at the outlet show runoff behavior with little sensitivity to variance in hydraulic conductivity. A technique is presented that explicitly interrogates individual realizations at every simulation timestep to partition overland and subsurface flow contributions. This hydrograph separation technique shows that the degree of heterogeneity can play a role in determining proportions of surface and subsurface flow, even when effective hillslope outflow is seen. This method is also used to evaluate current hydrograph separation techniques and demonstrates that recursive filters can accurately proportion overland and base-flow for certain cases.