An analysis of anomalous weather and climate around the M S=6.2 earthquake of Zhangbei region

Through analysis we found that some mesoscale anomalous regions (10¹–10² km) of meteorological parameters such as the special drought areas, unusual warm areas, the largest snowfall center, low pressure area together with the epicenter area of M _S=6.2 Zhangbei earthquake on January 10, 1998 are located at the same area, i.e. there appears the “Five areas corresponding” phenomenon. Meanwhile, three times of low pressure evolution are generated and develop in the earthquake area in five days after the occurrence of the earthquake. The abnormal variation of the lower limit of frozen soil layer shows indirectly that unusual warm in earthquake areas are related to the upward thermal conduction from the deeper layer of earth surface.     

Gravity variation before Kunlun mountain pass western Ms=8.1 earthquake

The relation between the gravity variation features and Ms=8.1 earthquake in Qinghai-Xizang monitoring area is analyzed preliminarily,by using spatial dynamic variation results of regional gravity field from absolute gravity and relative gravity observation in 1998 and 2000.The results show that:1)Ms\8.1 earthquake in Kulun mountain pass westem occurred in the gravity variation high gradient near gravity‘s high negative variation;2)The Main tectonic deformation and emnergy accumulation before MS=8.1 earthquake are distributed at south side of the epicenter;3)The range of gravity‘s high negative variation at east of the MS=8.1 earthquake epicenter relatively coincides with that rupture region according to field geology investigation;4)Gravity variation distribution in high negative value region is just consistent with the second shear strain‘s high value region of strain field obtained from GPS observation.     

张北6.2级强震前易县台地形变临震异常

河北省易县地震台DSQ型水管倾斜仪NE向2022年2月14日以来观测数据曲线出现趋势下降E倾变化,年变观测数据曲线不同于往年。对该异常进行了分析,并结合三维集中荷载模型模拟计算结果表明：2022年2月14日—4月6日旺隆水库共泄流总库容量达到279.5万m³,造成倾斜变化理论值为1.27×10⁻⁷,高于倾斜干扰的限定指标1.455×10⁻⁸一个量级,推测旺隆水库泄流荷载是造成易县台水管仪NE分量加速异常变化的主要因素。     

GPS time-series and its response to M S=8.1 Kunlunshan earthquake

In this paper, observation data in 25 GPS reference stations of China have been analyzed by calculating GPS position coordinate time-series with GIPSY. Result shows there is an obvious trend variation in such time-series. The trend variations of time series along the longitude and latitude coordinate reflect the motion of each position in the global-plate, in which the trend variation in the vertical direction reveals some large-scale construction information or reflects the local movement around the positions. The analysis also shows that such time-series have a variation cycle of nearly 1.02 a, but the reason still remains to be further studied. At the end of this paper, response of the time-series of M _S=8.1 Kunlunshan earthquake was analyzed, and the seismogenic process of M _S=8.1 Kunlunshan earthquake, according to the time proceeding and the feature of anomaly, was divided into 3 phases—changes in blocks with forces, strain accumulation, quick accumulation and slow release of energy. At the initial stage of seismogenic process of M _S=8.1 earthquake and at the imminent earthquake, coseismic process as well as during the post earthquake recovery, anomaly in vertical direction is always in a majority. The anomalous movement in vertical direction at the initial stage resulted in a blocking between faults, while at the middle stage of seismogenic process, the differential movement between blocks are in a majority, which is the major reason causing energy accumulating at the blocking stage of faults. Foundation item: National Natural Science Foundation of China (40074024 and 40304002).     

Study of dislocation model and evolution characteristics of vertical deformation field of gonghe M S=6.9 earthquake

The preliminary research results of vertical deformation dislocation model of GongheM _S =6.9 earthquake show that, the causative structure is a hidden fault with strike N60°W, dipping S47°W, which lies near the current subsidence center of Gonghe basin. The rupture length and width are 30km and 14km, the upper and lower bound depth of the fault in width direction are 3km and 17km respectively. The maximum coseismic and preseismic vertical deformation of GongheM _S =6.9 earthquake are 247mm and about 100mm. The reasons why there existed rapid postseismic uplift are also given a tentative discussion. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 289–295, 1993.     

Probable satellite thermal infrared anomaly before the Zhangbei M s=6.2 earthquake on January 10, 1998

This paper used the thermal infrared data of the satellite NOAA-AAVHRR of the north part of North China (113°～119° E, 38°～42° N), and processed the remote sensing data through radiation adjustment, geometric adjustment and so on by the software ＂The Monitoring and Fast Process System of Earthquake Precursor Thermal Infrared Anomaly＂, inversed the earth surface temperature. Some disturbances effect had been excluded, and thermal infrared temperature anomaly had been extracted by the picture difference method. The Zhangbei MS=6.2 earthquake is used as the example in the paper, so that in the paper thermal infrared characteristics on time-space before earthquake and the relationship between the anomaly and the earthquake prediction have been summarized.Within more than ten days before the Zhangbei earthquake, the thermal infrared anomaly had emerged widely along Zhangjiakou-Bohai seismic belt, and the anomalous region seemed like a belt and it is also consistent with the tectonic background there; the anomaly expanded from the outside toward the earthquake focus, but the focus lay at the edge of the thermal infrared region. So it is possible to explore a new anomaly observation method for earthquake prediction by observing and studying the satellite thermal infrared anomaly before big earthquakes happen.     

Spatial and temporal rupture process of the January 26, 2001, Gujarat, India, M S=7.8 earthquake

The source parameters, such as moment tensor, focal mechanism, source time function (STF) and temporal-spatial rupture process, were obtained for the January 26, 2001, India, M _S=7.8 earthquake by inverting waveform data of 27 GDSN stations with epicentral distances less than 90°. Firstly, combining the moment tensor inversion, the spatial distribution of intensity, disaster and aftershocks and the orientation of the fault where the earthquake lies, the strike, dip and rake of the seismogenic fault were determined to be 92°, 58° and 62°, respectively. That is, this earthquake was a mainly thrust faulting with the strike of near west-east and the dipping direction to south. The seismic moment released was 3.5×10²⁰ Nm, accordingly, the moment magnitude M _W was calculated to be 7.6. And then, 27 P-STFs, 22 S-STFs and the averaged STFs of them were determined respectively using the technique of spectra division in frequency domain and the synthetic seismogram as Green’s functions. The analysis of the STFs suggested that the earthquake was a continuous event with the duration time of 19 s, starting rapidly and ending slowly. Finally, the temporal-spatial distribution of the slip on the fault plane was imaged from the obtained P-STFs and S-STFs using an time domain inversion technique. The maximum slip amplitude on the fault plane was about 7 m. The maximum stress drop was 30 MPa, and the average one over the whole rupture area was 7 MPa. The rupture area was about 85 km long in the strike direction and about 60 km wide in the down-dip direction, which, equally, was 51 km deep in the depth direction. The rupture propagated 50 km eastwards and 35 km westwards. The main portion of the rupture area, which has the slip amplitude greater than 0.5 m, was of the shape of an ellipse, its major axis oriented in the slip direction of the fault, which indicated that the rupture propagation direction was in accordance with the fault slip direction. This phenomenon is popular for strike-slip faulting, but rather rare for thrust faulting. The eastern portion of the rupture area above the initiation point was larger than the western portion below the initiation point, which was indicative of the asymmetrical rupture. In other words, the rupturing was kind of unilateral from west to east and from down to up. From the snapshots of the slip-rate variation with time and space, the slip rate reached the largest at the 4th second, that was 0.2 m/s, and the rupture in this period occurred only around the initiation point. At the 6th second, the rupture around the initiation point nearly stopped, and started moving outwards. The velocity of the westward rupture was smaller than that of the eastward rupture. Such rupture behavior like a circle mostly stopped near the 15th second. After the 16th second, only some patches of rupture distributed in the outer region. From the snapshots of the slip variation with time and space, the rupture started at the initiation point and propagated outwards. The main rupture on the area with the slip amplitude greater than 5 m extended unilaterally from west to east and from down to up between the 6th and the 10th seconds, and the western segment extended a bit westwards and downwards between the 11th and the 13th seconds. The whole process lasted about 19 s. The rupture velocity over the whole rupture process was estimated to be 3.3 km/s. Foundation item: 973 Project (G1998040705) from Ministry of Science and Technology, P. R. China, and the National Science Foundation of China under grant No.49904004. Contribution No. 02FE2026, Institute of Geophysics, China Seismological Bureau.     

Source process of the 14 November 2001 western Kunlun Mountain M S=8.1 earthquake

Based on digital teleseismic P-wave seismograms recorded by 28 long-period seismograph stations of the global seismic network, source process of the November 14, 2001 western Kunlun Mountain M _S=8.1 (M _W=7.8) earthquake is estimated by a new inversion method. The result shows that the earthquake is a very complex rupture event. The source rupture initiated at the hypocenter (35.95°N, 90.54°E, focal depth 10 km, by USGS NEIC), and propagated to the west at first. Then, in several minutes to a hundred minutes and over a large spatial range, several rupture growth points emerged in succession at the eastern end and in the central part of the finite fault. And then the source rupture propagated from these rupture growth points successively and, finally, stopped in the area within 50 km to the east of the centroid position (35.80°N, 92.91°E, focal depth 15 km, by Harvard CMT). The entire rupture lasted for 142 s, and the source process could be roughly separated into three stages: The first stage started at the 0 s and ended at the 52 s, lasting for 52 s and releasing approximately 24.4% of the total moment; The second stage started at the 55 s and ended at the 113 s, lasting for 58 s and releasing approximately 56.5% of the total moment; The third stage started at the 122 s and ended at the 142 s, lasting for 20 s and releasing approximately 19.1% of the total moment. The length of the ruptured fault plane is about 490 km. The maximum width of the ruptured fault plane is about 45 km. The rupture mainly occurred within 30 km in depth under the surface of the Earth. The average static slip in the underground rocky crust is about 1.2 m with the maximum static slip 3.6 m. The average static stress drop is about 5 MPa with the maximum static stress drop 18 MPa. The maximum static slip and the maximum stress drop occurred in an area within 50 km to the east of the centroid position. Foundation item: Joint Seismological Science Foundation of China (103066) and Foundation of the Seismic Pattern and Digital Seismic Data Application Research Office of Institute of Earthquake Science of the China Earthquake Administration.     

Tempo-spatial rupture process of the 1997 Mani, Xizang (Tibet), China earthquake of M S=7.9

An earthquake of M _S=7.4 occurred in Mani, Xizang (Tibet), China on November 8, 1997. The moment tensor of this earthquake was inverted using the long period body waveform data from China Digital Seismograph Network (CDSN). The apparent source time functions (ASTFs) were retrieved from P and S waves, respectively, using the deconvolution technique in frequency domain, and the tempo-spatial rupture process on the fault plane was imaged by inverting the azimuth dependent ASTFs from different stations. The result of the moment tensor inversion indicates that the P and T axes of earthquake-generating stress field were nearly horizontal, with the P axis in the NNE direction (29°), the T axis in the SEE direction (122°) and that the NEE-SWW striking nodal plane and NNW-SSE striking nodal plane are mainly left-lateral and right-lateral strike-slip, respectively; that this earthquake had a scalar seismic moment of 3.4×10²⁰ N·m, and a moment magnitude of M _W=7.6. Taking the aftershock distribution into account, we proposed that the earthquake rupture occurred in the fault plane with the strike of 250°, the dip of 88° and the rake of 19°. On the basis of the result of the moment tensor inversion, the theoretical seismograms were synthesized, and then the ASTFs were retrieved by deconvoving the synthetic seismograms from the observed seismograms. The ASTFs retrieved from the P and S waves of different stations identically suggested that this earthquake was of a simple time history, whose ASTF can be approximated with a sine function with the half period of about 10 s. Inverting the azimuth dependent ASTFs from P and S waveforms led to the image showing the tempo-spatial distribution of the rupture on the fault plane. From the "remembering" snap-shots, the rupture initiated at the western end of the fault, and then propagated eastward and downward, indicating an overall unilateral rupture. However, the slip distribution is non-uniform, being made up of three sub-areas, one in the western end, about 10 km deep ("western area"); another about 55 km away from the western end and about 35 km deep ("eastern area"); the third about 30 km away from the western end and around 40 km deep ("central area"). The total rupture area was around 70 km long and 60 km wide. From the "forgetting" snap-shots, the rupturing appeared quite complex, with the slip occurring in different position at different time, and the earthquake being of the characteristics of "healing pulse". Another point we have to stress is that the locations in which the rupture initiated and terminated were not where the main rupture took place. Eventually, the static slip distribution was calculated, and the largest slip values of the three sub-areas were 956 cm, 743 cm and 1 060 cm, for the western, eastern and central areas, respectively. From the slip distribution, the rupture mainly distributed in the fault about 70 km eastern to the epicenter; from the aftershock distribution, however, the aftershocks were very sparse in the west to the epicenter while densely clustered in the east to the epicenter. It indicated that the Mani M _S=7.9 earthquake was resulted from the nearly eastward extension of the NEE-SWW to nearly E-W striking fault in the northwestern Tibetan plateau. Contribution No. 99FE2016, Institute of Geophysics, China Seismological Bureau. This work is supported by SSTCC Climb Project 95-S-05 and NSFDYS 49725410.     

Dynamic pattern characteristics of fault deformation and gravity field in the development process of Yongdeng M S=5.8 earthquake

In this paper, the fault deformation abnormality, dynamic evolution features of gravity and vertical deformation field in the seismogenic process of the Yongdeng, Gansu Province earthquake on July 22, 1995 are studied primarily. There appeared α-β-γ tri-stage anomaly at three sites near the epicenter, and there appeared anomalies of step and sudden jump at more than 10 sites in outer region since 1993. The high value area before shock, coseismic effect and process of recovery aftershock were monitored by portable gravity data. Data reflects the changing process of fault movement from the quasi-linear to the nonlinear in the near source region during seismogenic development of the Yongdeng earthquake and evolution of gravity field from heterogeneity of seismogenic term to quasi-homogeneity of postseismic term. There exists close relationship between strong earthquake and dynamic evolution of regional stress-strain field. Considering all above, the experience and lessons in this medium-short term prediction test are summarized.     

Seismicity anomalies before the great earth—quake of Ms=8.1 in the Kunlun Pass and its significance to earthquake prediction

A great earthquake of M _S=8.1 took place in the west of Kunlun Pass on November 14, 2001. The epicenter is located at 36.2°N and 90.9°E. The analysis shows that some main precursory seismic patterns appear before the great earthquake, e.g., seismic gap, seismic band, increased activity, seismicity quiet and swarm activity. The evolution of the seismic patterns before the earthquake of M _S=8.1 exhibits a course very similar to that found for earthquake cases with M _S≥7. The difference is that anomalous seismicity before the earthquake of M _S=8.1 involves in the larger area coverage and higher seismic magnitude. This provides an evidence for recognizing precursor and forecasting of very large earthquake. Finally, we review the rough prediction of the great earthquake and discuss some problems related to the prediction of great earthquakes.     

Preliminary analysis on characteristics of coseismic deformation associated with M S=8.1 western Kunlunshan Pass earthquake in 2001

Based on the analysis of coseismic deformation in the macroscopic epicentral region extracted by Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (D-InSAR), and combined with the seismic activity, focal mechanism solutions of the earthquake and field investigation, the characteristic of coseismic deformation of M _S=8.1 western Kunlunshan Pass earthquake in 2001 was researched. The study shows that its epicenter lies in the northeast side of Hoh Sai Hu; and the seismogenic fault in the macroscopic epicentral region can be divided into two central deformation fields: the west and east segments with the lengths of 42 km and 48 km, respectively. The whole fault extends about 90 km. From the distribution of interferometry fringes, the characteristic of sinistral strike slip of seismogenic fault can be identified clearly. The deformations on both sides of the fault are different with an obviously higher value on the south side. In the vicinity of macroscopic epicenter, the maximum displacement in look direction is about 288.4 cm and the minimum is 224.0 cm; the maximum sinistral horizontal dislocation of seismogenic fault near the macroscopic epicenter is 738.1 cm and the minimum is 551.8 cm. Foundation item: National Natural Science Foundation of China (40374013) and “Researching on the Disaster Earthquake” (2003) of Public Welfare Research Item, Ministry of Science and Technology of China.     

Effective relaxation time and viscosity of the earth inferred from the postseismic vertical deformations of the 1990 M S=7.0 Gonghe earthquake

The postseismic vertical deformation rates of the 1990 Gonghe M _S=7.0 earthquake appears to have decreased exponentially. Based on Okada’s coseismic surface displacement solution caused by a uniform fault slip in an elastic homogeneous half space, we derived its postseismic surface displacement by using a single-layer standard linear solid model, and further derived a simplified formula for determining the effective relaxation time and viscosity of the earth, which is independent of the dislocation parameters of the causative fault. From the postseismic vertical deformation of the 1990 Gonghe earthquake, we inferred that the effective relaxation time defined by τ=η/μ is 2.6 years, and the effective viscosity η is about 10¹⁸ Pa · s. This work was supported by Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation under the grants 92088 and 196098.     

The fault plane of the 1991, Datong-Yanggao, Shanxi, China, M S = 5.8 earthquake

Contribution 94A0008 of Institute of Geophysics, SSB, China.     

Moment tensor inversion and source rupture process of the September 27, 2003 M S=7.9 earthquake occurred in the border area of China, Russia and Mongolia

We conducted moment tensor inversion and studied source rupture process for M _S=7.9 earthquake occurred in the border area of China, Russia and Mongolia on September 27 2003, by using digital teleseismic P-wave seismograms recorded by long-period seismograph stations of the global seismic network. Considering the aftershock distribution and the tectonic settings around the epicentral area, we propose that the M _S=7.9 earthquake occurred on a fault plane with the strike of 127°, the dip of 79° and the rake of 171°. The rupture process inversion result of M _S=7.9 earthquake shows that the total rupture duration is about 37 s, the scalar moment tensor is M ₀=0.97×10²⁰ N·m. Rupture mainly occurred on the shallow area with 110 km long and 30 km wide, the location in which the rupture initiated is not where the main rupture took place, and the area with slip greater than 0.5 m basically lies within 35 km deep middle-crust under the earth surface. The maximum static slip is 3.6 m. There are two distinct areas with slip larger than 2.0 m. We noticed that when the rupture propagated towards northwest and closed to the area around the M _S=7.3 hypocenter, the slip decreased rapidly, which may indicate that the rupture process was stopped by barriers. The consistence of spatial distribution of slip on the fault plane with the distribution of aftershocks also supports that the rupture is a heterogeneous process owing to the presence of barriers.     

Rupture process of the M L=4.1 earthquake in Huailai Basin on July 20, 1995

On July 20, 1995, an earthquake of M _L=4.1 occurred in Huailai basin, northwest of Beijing, with epicenter coordinates 40.326°N, 115.448°E and focal depth 5.5 km. Following the main shock, seismicity sharply increased in the basin. This earthquake sequence was recorded by Sino-European Cooperative Huailai Digital Seismograph Network (HDSN) and the hypocentres were precisely located. About 2 hours after the occurrence of the main shock, a smaller event of M _L=2.0 took place at 40.323°N, 115.447°E with a focal depth of 5.0 km, which is very close to the main shock. Using the M _L=2.0 earthquake as an empirical Green’s function, a regularization method was applied to retrieve the far-field source-time function (STF) of the main shock. Considering the records of HDSN are the type of velocity, to depress high frequency noise, we removed instrument response from the records of the two events, then integrated them to get displacement seismogram before applying the regularization method. From the 5 field stations, P phases in vertical direction which mostly are about 0.5 s in length were used. The STFs obtained from each seismic phases are in good agreement, showing that the M _L=4.1 earthquake consisted of two events. STFs from each station demonstrate an obvious “seismic Doppler effect”. Assuming the nodal plane striking 37° and dipping 40°, determined by using P wave first motion data and aftershock distribution, is the fault plane, through a trial and error method, the following results were drawn: Both of the events lasted about 0.1 s, the rupture length of the first one is 0.5 km, longer than the second one which is 0.3 km, and the rupture velocity of the first event is 5.0 km/s, larger than that of the second one which is about 3.0 km/s; the second event took place 0.06 s later than the first one; on the fault plane, the first event ruptured in the direction γ=140° measured clockwise from the strike of the fault, while the second event ruptured at γ=80°, the initial point of the second one locates at γ=−100° and 0.52 km from the beginning point of the first one. Using far-field ground displacement spectrum measurement method, the following source parameters about the M _L=4.1 earthquake were also reached: the scalar earthquake moment is 3.3×10¹³ N·m, stress drop 4.6 MPa, rupture radius 0.16 km. Contribution No. 99FE2022, Institute of Geophysics, China Seismological Bureau. This study is supported by the Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation (95-07-411).     

Fault deformation anomaly and intermediate and short-term prediction of the Jingtai M s=5.9 earthquake

The time-space distribution characteristics of fault deformation anomaly in the near-source region and its outlying zone in the seismogenic process of the Jingtai M _s=5.9 earthquake occurred on June 6, 2000 in Gansu Province is studied preliminarily. The distribution scope of fault deformation anomaly before the earthquake is wide, the anomaly shape is complicated and the pattern anomalous zone of fault deformation (strain) information index is obvious. The shape and amplitude of fault deformation anomaly in different regions differ significantly, which is closely related with the tectonic location of anomaly. The fault deformation anomaly of α, β, and γ phases along the western segment of Haiyuan fault zone shows the process from the quasi-linearity to non-linearity of fault movement in the near-source region, matches the high-value anomalous area of fault deformation (strain) information index, and reflects the high strain accumulation in the seismogenic region. However, the anomaly of abrupt jump and cusp with a large amplitude occurred in the areas far from the earthquake, such as Liupanshan fault zone which is the tectonic convergent section does not reflect the strain accumulation of its location, maybe it is a sign that the regional tectonic stress field is strengthened in the seismogenic process. Based on the above-mentioned facts and combined with the preliminary summary of experiences and lessons in the intermediate and short-term prediction of the Jingtai M _s=5.9 earthquake, we study and explore the application of fault deformation anomaly to earthquake judgment. Foundation item: National Key Basic Research Development Program (G1998040703 and G1998040705), and State Scientific and Technological Project of the “Ninth Five-Year Plan” (96-913-09-01-02-03 and 96-913-09-02-02-03), China.