THE KUROSHIO MEANDER/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION CONNECTION AND DROUGHT/FLOOD CYCLES IN THE CHANGJIANG RIVER

In response to a suggestion that the large meander of the Kuroshio is a good predictor of droughtsin the Changjiang River Valley, it is argued that more recent inceptions of the meander lend statisticalweigh to the belief that the large meander is itself a consequence of E1 Nino, and hence of the SouthernOscillation. The meander usually lags. Thus, if the meander reliably predicts droughts, the Tahiti componentof the Southern Oscillation will usually give six months' extra warning.     

北太平洋海表温度异常对我国汛期降水的影响

本文对我国汛期降水进行了旋转主分量分析,得到6个最基本的降水型,并利用北太平洋超前一年各季的海表温度与这6个降水型求相关,得到24张相关图。分析相关图的结果表明:黑潮海域的海表温度对我国东部绝大部分地区降水很敏感;影响我国江淮流域降水的海温区有几个,因而使得江淮流域旱涝情况特别复杂也难以预报;我国汛期降水和北太平洋海表温度的相关具有不同的时滞现象,绝大多数与冬半年的海温有密切联系,充分反映了海气相互作用具有十分复杂的机制。     

A STUDY ON REGULARITY OF DROUGHT AND FLOOD IN THE CHANGJIANG RIVER VALLEY DURING LAST 10 CENTURIES

According to historical records, there are 264 drought and flood years, occurred in the upper and middle reaches of the Changjiang (Yangtze) River during last 1020 years from 961 to 1980. The evolutionary law and developing trend of drought and flood years are studied. The distribution of drought and flood years are non-uniform and the dry and flood seasons in a year are concentrated. At the angle of monsoon circulation, at present the climate in the upper and middle reaches of the Changjiang River is just in the late stage of frequent drought period and the early stage of least flood period. In addition, the cycle of drought and flood and the feature of drought and flood occurred in the upper, middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang River are analyzed. It shows that the short period less than 10 years is in the majority, and the drought and flood occurred most frequently in the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang River.     

THE PRELIMINARY STUDY ON POSSIBLE SCENARIOS OF FLOOD AND DROUGHT IN CHINA IN THE CASE OF GLOBAL WARMING

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ENSO cycle and climate anomaly in China

The inter-annual variability of the tropical Pacific Subsurface Ocean Temperature Anomaly (SOTA) and the associated anomalous atmospheric circulation over the Asian North Pacific during the El Ni o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) were investigated using National Centers for Environmental Prediction/ National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) atmospheric reanalysis data and simple ocean data simulation (SODA). The relationship between the ENSO and the climate of China was revealed. The main results indicated the following: 1) there are two ENSO modes acting on the subsurface tropical Pacific. The first mode is related to the mature phase of ENSO, which mainly appears during winter. The second mode is associated with a transition stage of the ENSO developing or decaying, which mainly occurs during summer; 2) during the mature phase of El Ni o, the meridionality of the atmosphere in the mid-high latitude increases, the Aleutian low and high pressure ridge over Lake Baikal strengthens, northerly winds prevail in northern China, and precipitation in northern China decreases significantly. The ridge of the Ural High strengthens during the decaying phase of El Ni o, as atmospheric circulation is sustained during winter, and the northerly wind anomaly appears in northern China during summer. Due to the ascending branch of the Walker circulation over the western Pacific, the western Pacific Subtropical High becomes weaker, and south-southeasterly winds prevail over southern China. As a result, less rainfall occurs over northern China and more rainfall over the Changjiang River basin and the southwestern and eastern region of Inner Mongolia. The flood disaster that occurred south of Changjiang River can be attributed to this. The La Ni a event causes an opposite, but weaker effect; 3) the ENSO cycle can influence climate anomalies within China via zonal and meridional heat transport. This is known as the "atmospheric-bridge", where the energy anomaly within the tropical Pacific transfers to the mid-high latitude in the northern Pacific through Hadley cells and Rossby waves, and to the western Pacific-eastern Indian Ocean through Walker circulation. This research also discusses the special air-sea boundary processes during the ENSO events in the tropical Pacific, and indicates that the influence of the subsurface water of the tropical Pacific on the atmospheric circulation may be realized through the sea surface temperature anomalies of the mixed water, which contact the atmosphere and transfer the anomalous heat and moisture to the atmosphere directly. Moreover, the reason for the heavy flood within the Changjiang River during the summer of 1998 is reviewed in this paper.     

Precipitation patterns in flood season over China associated with the El Niño/Southern Osciliation

The precipitation patterns in flood season over China associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are investigated, especially in the eastern China, using the rather long period rainfall data in this century. The results show that there were remarkable differences between the precipitation patterns in flood seasons of ENSO warm phase (El Niño year) and cold phase (La Niña year), as well as between the patterns in El Niño years and their following years. The most parts of China received below normal rainfall in flood season of the onset years of El Niño events, but the coastal area of Southeast China received above normal amounts. Comparatively, the most parts of China received above normal rainfall in flood season of the following years of El Niño events, but the eastern part of the reaches among the Huanghe (Yellow) River, the Huaihe River and the Haihe River, and the Northeast China received less. During ENSO cold phase, the reaches of the Changjiang (Yangtze) River and the North China received more amounts than normal rainfall in flood season of the onset years of La Niña events, and the other regions of China received less. In the following years of La Niña events, the coastal area of the Southeast China, the most part of the Northeast China and the regions between the Huanghe River and the Huaihe River received more precipitation during flood seasons, but the other parts received below normal precipitation.     

PRECIPITATION PATTERNS IN FLOOD SEASON OVER CHINA ASSOCIATED WITH THE EL NI■O/SOUTHERN OSCILIATION

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Effects of dissolved oxygen and nutrients from the Kuroshio on hypoxia off the Changjiang River estuary

Journal of Oceanology and Limnology - The intrusion of the Kuroshio into the East China Sea (ECS) affects the development of hypoxia off the Changjiang (Yangtze) River estuary; however,...     

INTERDECADAL SEA LEVEL VARIATION AT THE JAPANESE COAST AND LARGE SCALE CLIMATE STATE

Thirty years of monthly mean anomalies of sea level(SL) at 15 Japanese coastal stations, sea sur-face temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP) in or over the northern Pacific were analyzed bycanonical correlation analysis (CCA) to study the relationship between the interdecadal SL variationand large scale climate state. Given two time-varying fields this technique identifies the pair ofspacial patterns with optimally correlated time series.The results show that there are two important air-sea interactive processes in the extratropicalPacific region for the variation of the SL at the Japanese coast on interdecadal scale. One is theocean heating or cooling of the atmosphere over the Kuroshio extension region, which results in ahuge SLP anomalous vortex with planetary spacial scale big enough to change the global climate. An-other is the large Kuroshio meander phenomenon controlled by the large-scale wind-stress curls oneyear earlier in the adjacent region of the Hawaiian Islands. The first process im     

Spatial-temporal variations of dominant drought/flood modes and the associated atmospheric circulation and ocean events in rainy season over the east of China

By using Season-reliant Empirical Orthogonal Function (S-EOF) analysis, three dominant modes of the spatial-temporal evolution of the drought/flood patterns in the rainy season over the east of China are revealed for the period of 1960-2004. The first two leading modes occur during the turnabout phase of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) decaying year, but the drought/flood patterns in the rainy season over the east of China are different due to the role of the Indian Ocean (IO). The first leading mode appears closely correlated with the ENSO events. In the decaying year of El Nino, the associated western North Pacific (WNP) anticyclone located over the Philippine Sea persists from the previous winter to the next early summer, transports warm and moist air toward the southern Yangtze River in China, and leads to wet conditions over this entire region. Therefore, the precipitation anomaly in summer exhibits a ’Southern Flood and Northern Drought’ pattern over East China. On the other hand, the basin-wide Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) plays a crucial role in prolonging the impact of ENSO on the second mode during the ENSO decaying summer. The Indian Ocean basin mode (IOBM) warming persists through summer and unleashes its influence, which forces a Matsuno-Gill pattern in the upper troposphere. Over the subtropical western North Pacific, an anomalous anticyclone forms in the lower troposphere. The southerlies on the northwest flank of this anticyclone increase the moisture transport onto central China, leading to abundant rainfall over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and Huaihe River valleys. The anomalous anticyclone causes dry conditions over South China and the South China Sea (SCS). The precipitation anomaly in summer exhibits a ’Northern Flood and Southern Drought’ pattern over East China. Therefore, besides the ENSO event the IOBM is an important factor to influence the drought/flood patterns in the rainy season over the east of China. The third mode is positively correlated with the tropical SSTA in the Indian Ocean from the spring of preceding year(-1) to the winter of following year(+1), but not related to the ENSO events. The positive SSTA in the South China Sea and the Philippine Sea persists from spring to autumn, leading to weak north-south and land-sea thermal contrasts, which may weaken the intensity of the East Asia summer monsoon. The weakened rainfall over the northern Indian monsoon region may link to the third spatial mode through the ’Silk Road’ teleconnection or a part of circumglobal teleconnection (CGT). The physical mechanisms that reveal these linkages remain elusive and invite further investigation.     

Dynamic variation of nitrogen content in the Second Songhua River

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The influence of the sea-air heat exchange over the Kuroshio in the East China Sea in winter on the precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of Changjiang River in flood season

In this paper, the sea-air heat exchange over the Kuroshio in the East China Sea during the winters of 1954–1972 is computed and analysed. The results indicate that the year to year anomalies of sea-air heat exchange are obvious and the values are mainly controlled by the intensity of the cold air at the same time. The authors have found a close relationship between sea-air heat exchange and precipitation in the region of the Changjiang River during the early summer. Finally, the predicting indication for forecasting this precipitation around the middle and lower reaches of Changjiang River in June is given. Contribution No. 839 from the Institute of Oceanology, Academia Sinica. This paper was published in Chinese inOceanologia et Limnologia Sinica 14 (3): 256–262, 1983.     

Seasonal variation of the barrier layer in the PN section

In this paper, we use the conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD) observation data and a three-dimensional ocean model in a seasonally-varying forcing field to study the barrier layer (BL) in the PN section in the East China Sea (ECS). The BL can be found along the PN section with obviously seasonal variability. In winter, spring and autumn, the BL occurs around the slope where the cold shelf water meets with the warm Kuroshio water. In summer, the BL can also be found in the shelf area near salinity front of the Changjiang (Yangtze) River Dilution Water (YRDW). Seasonal variations of BL in the PN section are caused by local hydrological characteristics and seasonal variations of atmospheric forcing. Strong vertical convection caused by sea surface cooling thickens the BL in winter and spring in the slope area. Due to the large discharge of Changjiang River in summer, the BL occurs extensively in the shelf region where the fresh YRDW and the salty bottom water meet and form a strong halocline above the seasonal thermocline. The formation mechanism of BL in the PN section can be explained by the vertical shear of different water masses, which is called the advection mechanism. The interannual variation of BL in summer is greatly affected by the YRDW. In the larger YRDW year (such as 1998), a shallow but much thicker BL existed on the shelf area. Supported by National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program, No. 2005CB422303 and 2007CB411804), the Key Project of the International Science and Technology Cooperation Program of China (No. 2006DFB21250), the “111 Project” of the Ministry of Education (No. B07036), the Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University, China (No. NECT-07-0781)     

Water discharge variability of Changjiang （Yangtze） and Huanghe （Yellow） Rivers and its response to climatic changes

Influences of large-scale climatic phenomena, such as the E1Nifio/La Nifia-Southem Oscillation （ENSO） and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO）, on the temporal variations of the annual water discharge at the Lijin station in the Huanghe （Yellow） River and at the Datong station in the Changjiang （Yangtze） River were examined. Using the empirical mode decomposition-maximum entropy spectral analysis （EMD- MESA） method, the 2- to 3-year, 8- to 14-year, and 23-year cyclical variations of the annual water discharge at the two stations were discovered. Based on the analysis results, the hydrological time series on the inter- annual to interdecadal scales were constructed. The results indicate that from 1950 to 2011, a significant downward trend occurred in the natural annual water discharge in Huanghe River. However, the changes in water discharge in Changjiang River basin exhibited a slightly upward trend. It indicated that the changes in the river discharge in the Huanghe basin were driven primarily by precipitation. Other factors, such as the precipitation over the Changjiang River tributaries, ice melt and evaporation contributed much more to the increase in the Changjiang River basin. Especially, the impacts of the inter-annual and inter-decadal climate oscillations such as ENSO and PDO could change the long-term patterns of precipitation over the basins of the two major rivers. Generally, low amounts of basin-wide precipitation on interannual to interdecadal scales over the two rivers corresponded to most of the warm ENSO events and the warm phases of the PDO, and vice versa. The positive phases of the PDO and ENSO could lead to reduced precipitation and consequently affect the long-term scale water discharges at the two rivers.     

Distribution of dissolved inorganic nitrogen over the continental slope of the Yellow Sea and East China Sea

Based on survey data from April to May 2009, distribution and its influential factors of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) over the continental slopes of the Yellow Sea (YS) and East China Sea (ECS) are discussed. Influenced by the Changjiang (Yangtze) River water, alongshore currents, and the Kuroshio current off the coast, DIN concentrations were higher in the Changjiang River estuary, but lower (<1 μmol/L) in the northern and eastern YS and outer continental shelf area of the ECS. In the YS, the thermocline formed in spring, and a cold-water mass with higher DIN concentration (about 11 μmol/L) formed in benthonic water around 123.2°E. In Changjiang estuary (around 123°E, 32°N), DIN concentration was higher in the 10 m layer; however, the bottom DIN concentration was lower, possibly influenced by mixing of the Taiwan Warm Current and offshore currents.     

The distribution of dissolved aluminum in the Yellow and East China Seas

Water samples containing dissolved aluminum were collected from the Yellow and East China Seas in October-November 2000. The average concentrations of dissolved AI in the Yellow Sea （YS） and East China Sea （ECS） were 0.042 and 0.056 μ molL^-1, respectively. The concentration of dissolved aluminum decreased gradually across the continental shelf. The lower concentrations appeared in the YS cold water center and in the bottom layer at the shelf edge of the ECS, where they were 0.016 and 0.011 μmolL^-1, respectively. The distribution of dissolved Al was controlled by physical mixing processes rather than biological uptake processes. The impact of different water masses along the PN transect was calculated based on the mass balance model. The results show that the impact of the Changjiang River was mainly concentrated on the coastal area and the top thermocline water on the ECS shelf, where the impact percentage decreased from 12.6% to 1.1% in the surface water, while the contribution of the Kuroshio water was dominant on the ECS shelf in this survey, increasing from 77.6% to 97,8% along the PN transect from the Changjiang River Estuary to the Ryukyu Islands. It is concluded that aluminum can serve as a proper tracer for studying the impact of Changjiang terrestrial matter on the ECS shelf water.     

Numerical experiments on the wind-driven circulation in the Bohai, Huanghai and East China Seas in winter

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The surface path of the Kuroshio Extension’s western sector and the eddies on both sides

The surface path of the Kuroshio Extension’s western sector and the eddies on both sides are systematically analysed based on the GEK-measured surface current and temperature-salinity data from 1955–1985. The main results are shown as follows:1) According to the position and the features of distribution pattern, the surface path of the Kuroshio Extension’s western sector is classified into two kinds (straight and meander) and seven types (f. n_e, S_c, U_i or V_i, V_di or U_di, Ω, f+v). The straight kind accounts for 1/3 and the meander kind accounts for 2/3. 2) The warm eddies on the northern side originate mostly from the area off Sanriku and Joban of Japan. Their moving paths lie in two patterns: Pattern I, eddy moves northeastward or northward; Pattern II, eddy rotates about the original area. The cold eddies on the southern side originate mainly from the area off Boso Peninsula. Their moving paths also lie in two patterns: Pattern III. eddy moves from west to east; Pattern IV, eddy moves from north to south.     

Optimal precursor of the transition from Kuroshio large meander to straight path

We used the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP) method to explore the optimal precursor of the transition from Kuroshio large meander(LM) to straight path within a barotropic inflowoutflow model,and found that large amplitudes of the optimal precursor are mainly located in the east of Kyushu,which implies that perturbations in the region are important for the transition from LM to straight path.Furthermore,we investigated the transition processes caused by the optimal precursor,and found that these processes could be divided into three stages.In the first stage,a cyclonic eddy is advected to the formation region of the Kuroshio large meander,which enhances the LM path and causes a cyclonic eddy to shed from the Kuroshio mainstream.This process causes the LM path to change into a small meander path.Subsequently,the small meander is maintained for a period because the vorticity advection is balanced by the beta effect in the second stage.In the third stage,the small meander weakens and the straight path ultimately forms.The positive vorticity advecting downstream is responsible for this process.The exploration of the optimal precursor will conduce to improve the prediction of the transition processes from LM path to straight path,and its spatial structure can be used to guide Kuroshio targeted observation studies.     

High resolution records of flood deposition in the mud area off the Changjiang River mouth during the past century

This paper presents a paleoflood study to determine the flood frequency of the Changjiang River, based on core cj0702, taken from the Changjiang River subaqueous delta. We identified flood deposits by means of high-resolution grain-size variation, sensitive population, geochemical indexes and magnetic susceptibility. The core covers a time span of 120 years by 210 Pb dating and was sampled at 1–2 cm intervals. Grain size, geochemical elements, and physical parameters were analyzed. The results indicate that the sediment of the core is mainly composed of silt and clay, as well as groups of interbedded silt, clay silt, and clay. Vertically, the grain size pattern was controlled by seasonal variations in water discharge and by the sediment input in winter from the abandoned Huanghe River delta. River flooding caused extreme values in all our measured parameters. We identified more than 20 flood events that occurred since 1887 using the physical parameter analysis method. The environmentally sensitive component of sediment grain size(14.32–96.39 μm) contribution30%, Zr/Rb ratio1.5, and magnetic susceptibility16 were selected as the criteria for flood identification generally. We also found that floods that had taken place in the upstream, midstream, or downstream parts of the river were clearly identified by these indexes while the large-scale floods that covered the whole drainage area did not leave clear indications in the sediment record. This study for identification of flood events is of great significance for understanding hyperpycnal current sedimentation as well as for forecasting of floods.