Atmospheric circulation associated with extreme generalized frosts persistence in central-southern South America

Generalized frosts (GF) in central-southern South America have a strong impact due to their spatial extension, and they are especially important when they become persistent. This paper aims at identifying the atmospheric circulation features that determine the extreme GF persistence, i.e. very persistent and without persistence, and the differences between them, during the 1961–1990 winters. Since the GF without persistence group outnumbers the other one, two subgroups are composed with events selected from winters with maximum and minimum frequency of GF occurrence, respectively. Additionally, the individual event of July 1988 within the very persistent GF group is analyzed due to its exceptional persistence. GF persistence is mainly conditioned by two large-scale dynamic factors. One is the Rossby wave train propagation across the Pacific Ocean, and the other one is the location with respect to the continent and the magnitude of the confluence in the jet entrance region in subtropical latitudes. A predominantly meridional Rossby wave train propagation with a confluence region to the west of the continent prior to the event favors GF with intermediate (null) persistence depending on the greater (lesser) jet acceleration. This is conditioned by the magnitude of the confluence, which, in turn, depends on the disposition of the wave train propagation pattern. Instead, an essentially zonal propagation with a confluence region to the east of the continent favors the GF persistence for several days, yet if there is no confluence the event does not persist. The greatest persistence of an event combines the confluence/diffluence of the jet entrance/exit region, which depends on the disposition with respect to the continent of the zonally propagating Rossby wave trains.     

Teleconnection patterns and Rossby wave propagation associated to generalized frosts over southern South America

Based on previous observational studies of the mean atmospheric circulation leading to generalized frosts (GF) in central Southern South America, it is possible to establish a hypothesis that specific large scale patterns are associated to the frequency of occurrence of these events through the propagation of Rossby waves remotely excited. This hypothesis is tested here through a teleconnection analysis for austral winters which present an extreme frequency of occurrence of GF in southeastern South America, particularly over the Wet Pampa area in Argentina. Rossby wave propagation regions are identified for two basic states given by the composition of winters with maximum and minimum frequency of GF occurrence, during the 1961–1990 period. The stationary wavenumber K _s indicates the regions where the Rossby wave propagation is permitted and those where it will be inhibited (K _s = 0), highlighting the importance of the jets as waveguides. Nevertheless, differences exist between both basic states analyzed. These differences indicate that the locations for wave generation and its later evolution are conditioned by the basic state. Results are validated through a baroclinic model, which simulates the Rossby wave patterns responsible for the teleconnection. Numerical experiments confirm that the principal wave activity takes place inside the subtropical and polar jets. In particular, for the basic state with maximum frequency of GF occurrence, the wave trains propagating inside the subtropical and polar waveguides merge just before entering the continent, as shown by the observations prior to the occurrence of GF events. This configuration favors the development of an intense south wind anomaly with large meridional extension which results in the intensification of anticyclonic circulation in southern South America. A conceptual model is presented to summarise all these results.     

High-frequency patterns of the atmospheric circulation over the southern hemisphere and South America

Summary Daily 500-hPa geopotential height and 250-hPa meridional wind reanalyzed data obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction are used to document austral winter (May to September) and summer (November to March) high-frequency variability in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) midlatitudes for the 1990–1994 period. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) technique is used to determine the high-frequency patterns for these variables in selected areas. The high-frequency anomalous 500-hPa geopotential height patterns for two areas in the SH midlatitudes (the zonally global domain and the western hemisphere) and the high-frequency anomalous 250-hPa meridional wind patterns in the western hemisphere between 15° N and 70° S are discussed. The high-frequency winter and summer patterns for both variables feature a wavetrain structure in the SH midlatitudes which is related to synoptic-scale systems, such as cyclones and anticyclones associated with frontal zones. The dominant high-frequency patterns in the SH midlatitudes manifest in the eastern hemisphere while the secondary ones appear in the southeastern Pacific. Analysis of the western hemisphere data reveal that the wavetrain in the South American sector extends northeastward over the continent, thus affecting the regional weather conditions. An important result presented here concerns the preference of the intense synoptic systems in the eastern hemisphere and in the southeastern Pacific to occur in a sequential instead of an intermittent fashion. This result might have a potential for being used in weather monitoring.     

Climate change in terms of modes of atmospheric variability and circulation regimes over southern South America

The simulated low-frequency variability patterns of the atmospheric circulation, ranging from interannual to interdecadal timescales, are studied in an area encompassing southern South America. The experiment is a transient simulation performed with the IPSL CCM2 coupled global model, in which the greenhouse forcing is continuously increasing. The main modes of low-frequency variability are found to remain stationary throughout the simulation, suggesting they depend more on the internal dynamics of the atmospheric flow than on its external forcing. Inspection of the circulation regimes that represent the more recurrent patterns at interannual and interdecadal timescales showed that climate change manifests itself as a change in regime population, suggesting that the negative phase of the Antarctic Oscillation-like pattern becomes more frequented in a climate change scenario. Changes of regime occurrence are superimposed to a positive trend whose spatial pattern is reminiscent of the structure of the Antarctic Oscillation-mode of variability. Moreover, it resembles the spatial patterns of those regimes that show a significant change in population. The change in regime frequencies of the circulation patterns of low-frequency variability are in opposite phase with respect to the trend, thus, the behaviour of these patterns of variability, superimposed to a changing mean state, modulates the climate change signal. The analysis of the high frequencies, in terms of recurrent patterns representing intraseasonal and synoptic-scale of variability, shows no significant changes in regime characteristics, concerning both spatial and temporal behaviour.     

Regional droughts in southern South America

From a regional inventory of monthly droughts, which was evaluated in six regions of southern South America, the seasonal occurrence of the phenomenon and its persistence together with the duration of monthly and annual sequences, extreme events, and other statistical estimates of the proposed index have been studied. In a primary analysis, it is possible to observe that regions present different behaviors regarding the duration of dry sequences, with more persistence in the Argentinean continental region. Temporal behaviors of the annual indexes have also been analyzed, in the attempt to determine any aspects of the impact of global warming. Through this analysis, the presence of long favorable tendencies regarding precipitations or the inverse of droughts occurrence are confirmed for the eastern Andes Mountains in Argentina (ARG) with its five sub-regions (Northwest Argentina-NWA, Northeast Argentina-NEA, Humid Pampa-HP, West-Centre Provinces-WC and Patagonia-PAT, and the inverse over the central region of Chile (CHI). Other climatic great-scale changes are interdecadales variations and variances explained according to ENSO.     

Upper-level cut-off lows in southern South America

Summary This paper presents a statistical study of the spatial and seasonal distribution and duration of cut-off low systems over the southern South American region based on the NCEP- NCAR reanalysis data for the period 1979–1988. Cut-off lows were first objectively determined as minimum geopotential values at the 250 hPa level and then subjectively imposing a cut-off circulation and a cold core. A total of 171 cut-off low events were detected, being more frequent in austral autumn followed by winter, spring and summer. There is a preferential region of occurrence in spring and autumn located between 68°–80° W and 30°–45° S. The Pacific area showed the greatest frequency of occurrence followed by the Atlantic and the continental areas. Most of the cut-off lows last 2 or 3 days (around 90% of the cases) though there is a tendency of the continental events to be longer. The cut-off low event developed upwind the Andes on 22–28 September 1986 was selected as a case study. Low-level cold air advection was the main forcing of the deepening of the upper level low system.     

Downscaling extreme month-long anomalies in southern South America

We investigate the performance of one stretched-grid atmospheric global model, five different regional climate models and a statistical downscaling technique in simulating 3 months (January 1971, November 1986, July 1996) characterized by anomalous climate conditions in the southern La Plata Basin. Models were driven by reanalysis (ERA-40). The analysis has emphasized on the simulation of the precipitation over land and has provided a quantification of the biases of and scatter between the different regional simulations. Most but not all dynamical models underpredict precipitation amounts in south eastern South America during the three periods. Results suggest that models have regime dependence, performing better for some conditions than others. The models’ ensemble and the statistical technique succeed in reproducing the overall observed frequency of daily precipitation for all periods. But most models tend to underestimate the frequency of dry days and overestimate the amount of light rainfall days. The number of events with strong or heavy precipitation tends to be under simulated by the models.     

Spatial organization of decadal and bidecadal rainfall fluctuations in southern North America and southern South America

The spatial organization of decadal and bidecadal components (fluctuations) of annual rainfall is identified in this research for two regions: (1) southern South America, and (2) southern North America (conterminous USA, southeastern Canada and northern and central Mexico). Findings indicate that these decadal and bidecadal components have highly coherent wave-like spatial organization. Two types of organization of decadal and bidecadal components of annual rainfall were identified: a train of propagating fluctuations and quasi-standing fluctuations. For decadal components, such patterns alternate in time. A widespread change in the spatial organization of decadal component of annual rainfall took place simultaneously in both continents in 1932. The bidecadal component is organized as standing fluctuations in southern North America and as travelling fluctuations in southern South America, The spatial pattern of decadal fluctuations of annual rainfall has 12- and 13-year cycles, and the spatial pattern of bidecadal fluctuations has predominantly 21- and 22-year cycles.     

Effects of Amazon basin deforestation on regional atmospheric circulation and water vapor transport towards tropical South America

The water cycle over the Amazon basin is a regulatory mechanism for regional and global climate. The atmospheric moisture evaporated from this basin represents an important source of humidity for itself and for other remote regions. The deforestation rates that this basin has experienced in the past decades have implications for regional atmospheric circulation and water vapor transport. In this study, we analyzed the changes in atmospheric moisture transport towards tropical South America during the period 1961–2010, according to two deforestation scenarios of the Amazon defined by Alves et al. (Theor Appl Climatol 100(3-4):337–350, 2017). These scenarios consider deforested areas of approximately 28% and 38% of the Amazon basin, respectively. The Dynamic Recycling Model is used to track the transport of water vapor from different sources in tropical South America and the surrounding oceans. Our results indicate that under deforestation scenarios in the Amazon basin, continental sources reduce their contributions to northern South America at an annual scale by an average of between 40 and 43% with respect to the baseline state. Our analyses suggest that these changes may be related to alterations in the regional Hadley and Walker cells. Amazon deforestation also induces a strengthening of the cross-equatorial flow that transports atmospheric moisture from the Tropical North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea to tropical South America during the austral summer. A weakening of the cross-equatorial flow is observed during the boreal summer, reducing moisture transport from the Amazon to latitudes further north. These changes alter the patterns of precipitable water contributions to tropical South America from both continental and oceanic sources. Finally, we observed that deforestation over the Amazon basin increases the frequency of occurrence of longer dry seasons in the central-southern Amazon (by between 29 and 57%), depending on the deforestation scenario considered, as previous studies suggest.     

Simulation of the summer circulation over South America by two regional climate models. Part I: Mean climatology

Summary This study investigates the capabilities of two regional models (the ICTP RegCM3 and the climate version of the CPTEC Eta model – EtaClim) in simulating the mean climatological features of the summer quasi-stationary circulations over South America. Comparing the results with the NCEP/DOE reanalysis II data it is seen that the RegCM3 simulates a weaker and southward shifted Bolivian high (BH). But, the Nordeste low (NL) is located close to its climatological position. In the EtaClim the position of the BH is reproduced well, but the NL is shifted towards the interior of the continent. To the east of Andes, the RegCM3 simulates a weaker low level jet and a weaker basic flow from the tropical Atlantic to Amazonia while they are stronger in the EtaClim. In general, the RegCM3 and EtaClim show, respectively a negative and positive bias in the surface temperature in almost all regions of South America. For both models, the correlation coefficients between the simulated precipitation and the GPCP data are high over most of South America. Although the RegCM3 and EtaClim overestimate the precipitation in the Andes region they show a negative bias in general over the entire South America. The simulations of upper and lower level circulations and precipitation fields in EtaClim were better than that of the RegCM3. In central Amazonia both models were unable to simulate the precipitation correctly. The results showed that although the RegCM3 and EtaClim are capable of simulating the main climatological features of the summer climate over South America, there are areas which need improvement. This indicates that the models must be more adequately tuned in order to give reliable predictions in the different regions of South America.     

On the variability of seasonal temperature in southern South America

The aim of this paper is to investigate different aspects of the seasonal-to-interannual temperature variability in Eastern Patagonia, the southernmost area of South America, east of the Andes Cordillera. Homogenous regions of seasonal variability and the atmospheric circulation patterns associated with warm and cold conditions in each of them are described in this study. Relationships between temperature in Eastern Patagonia and that registered in other areas of southern South America are also addressed. Results show that the northern and southern areas of Eastern Patagonia have different temperature variability in summer and autumn whereas the temperature variability tends to be more homogeneous within the region during winter and spring. Warm (cold) conditions in the northern areas are associated with reinforced (weakened) westerlies in summer, winter and spring whereas northerly (southerly) advections of warm (cold) air toward the region produce such conditions in autumn. Temperature in the southern portion of Eastern Patagonia is affected by anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomalies that enhance (reduce) the incoming solar radiation and induce reinforced (weakened) westerlies promoting warm (cold) conditions in the region. Furthermore, cyclonic (anticyclonic) anomalies at subpolar latitudes hinder (favor) outbreaks of cold air increasing (decreasing) the temperature over areas of Eastern Patagonia. The circulation anomalies associated with warm (cold) conditions in Eastern Patagonia also promote cold (warm) conditions over areas of northern Argentina, Paraguay and southern Brazil. Consequently, a dipole of temperature is detected in southern South America with centers of opposite sign over these regions.     

Variability of UTCI index in South Warsaw depending on atmospheric circulation

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - The aim of the study is the assessment and analysis of the variability of human-bioclimatic conditions in southern part of Warsaw, depending on the atmospheric...     

Persistence and long-term memories of daily maximum and minimum temperatures in southern South America

The persistence and long-term memories in daily maximum and minimum temperature series during the instrumental period in southern South America were analysed. Here, we found a markedly seasonal pattern both for short- and long-term memories that can lead to enhanced predictability on intraseasonal timescales. In addition, well-defined spatial patterns of these properties were found in the region. Throughout the entire region, the strongest dependence was observed in autumn and early winter. In the Patagonia region only, the temperatures exhibited more memory during the spring. In general, these elements indicate that nonlinear interactions exist between the annual cycles of temperature and its anomalies. Knowledge of the spatiotemporal behaviour of these long-term memories can be used in the building of stochastic models that only use persistence. It is possible to propose two objective forecast models based on linear interactions associated with persistence and one that allows for the use of information from nonlinear interactions that are manifested in the form of forerunners.