中国近海现场海洋观测系统设计评估

中国科学院正在发展一个在中国近海(包括黄海、东海和南海)现场海洋观测系统。观测系统包括3个沿岸观测站点、4个近海离岸浮标和由观测船只按固定航线做的船舶观测断面。观测站点、浮标和断面的位置已经预先确定,这个计划在2008-2011实施。利用基于卡尔曼理论的样本集合方法对这样一个能够监测大尺度的季节和年季变率的观测系统设计进行了评估。根据卡尔曼滤波理论,用集合样本的方法能够给出经过同化这个观测系统位置的观测资料后能够减少多少分析误差和分析场的不确定性。用2个来自不同模式、不同分辨率的模式的结果作为集合样本来计算静态的背景误差协方差,这2套样本分别是来自分辨率是0.5°×0.5°的模式同化结果和高分辨0.125°×0.125°的模式结果。由这2个不同资料得到的结果是一致的。发现来自3个近岸和4个离岸浮标得到的观测能够有效地减少SST在渤海、黄海、东海和南海中部的分析误差。然而在越南东部和台湾东部海域,分析误差减少的百分比相对要小。最后,给出了中国近海最优的观测位置序列设计。     

Comparison of TOPEX/POSEIDON Altimeter Derived Wind Speed and Wave Parameters with Ocean Buoy Data in the North Indian Ocean

Results of comparison exercises carried out between the state-of-the-art TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter-derived ocean surface wind speed and ocean wave parameters (significant wave height and wave period) and those measured by a set of ocean data buoys in the North Indian Ocean are presented in this article. Altimeter-derived significant wave height values exhibited rms deviation as small as ±0.3 m, and surface wind speed of ±1.6 m/s. These results are found consistent with those found for the Pacific Ocean. For estimation of ocean wave period, the spectral moments-based semiempirical approach, earlier applied on GEOSAT data, was extended to TOPEX/POSEIDON. For this purpose, distributions of first four years of TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data and climatology over the North Indian Ocean were analyzed and a new set of coefficients generated for estimation of wave period. It is shown that wave periods thus estimated from TOPEX/POSEIDON data (for the subsequent two years), when compared with independent data set of ocean data buoys deployed in the North Indian Ocean, exhibit improved accuracy (rms ~ ±1.4 nos) over those determined earlier with GEOSAT data.     

Comparison of TOPEX/POSEIDON Altimeter Derived Wind Speed and Wave Parameters with Ocean Buoy Data in the North Indian Ocean

Results of comparison exercises carried out between the state-of-the-art TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter-derived ocean surface wind speed and ocean wave parameters (significant wave height and wave period) and those measured by a set of ocean data buoys in the North Indian Ocean are presented in this article. Altimeter-derived significant wave height values exhibited rms deviation as small as - 0.3 m, and surface wind speed of - 1.6 m/s. These results are found consistent with those found for the Pacific Ocean. For estimation of ocean wave period, the spectral moments-based semiempirical approach, earlier applied on GEOSAT data, was extended to TOPEX/POSEIDON. For this purpose, distributions of first four years of TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data and climatology over the North Indian Ocean were analyzed and a new set of coefficients generated for estimation of wave period. It is shown that wave periods thus estimated from TOPEX/POSEIDON data (for the subsequent two years), when compared with independent data set of ocean data buoys deployed in the North Indian Ocean, exhibit improved accuracy (rms ~ - 1.4 nos) over those determined earlier with GEOSAT data.     

南海及邻近海域大气-海浪-海洋耦合精细化数值预报系统研制

本文主要介绍了南海及邻近海域大气-海浪-海洋耦合精细化数值预报系统的研制概况。预报区域为99°E~135°E,15°S~45°N,包括渤海、黄海、东海和南海及其周边海域。为了给耦合预报模式提供较准确的预报初始场,在预报开始之前,分别进行了海浪模式和海洋模式的前24小时同化后报模拟。海浪模式和海洋模式都采用了集合调整Kalman滤波同化方法,海浪模式同化了Jason-2有效波高数据;海洋模式同化了SST数据、MADT数据和ARGO剖面数据。为了改进海洋温度和盐度的模拟,我们在海洋模式的垂向混合方案中引入波致混合和内波致混合的作用。预报系统的运行主要包括两个阶段,首先海浪模式和海洋模式进行了2014年1月至2015年10月底的同化后报模拟,强迫场源自欧洲气象中心的六小时的再分析数据产品。然后耦合预报系统将同化后报模拟的结果作为初始场进行了14个月的耦合预报。预报产品包括大气产品（气温、风速风向、气压等）、海浪产品（有效波高和波向等）、海流产品（温度、盐度和海流等）。一系列观测资料的检验比较表明该大气-海浪-海洋耦合精细化数值预报系统的预报结果较为可靠,可以为南海及周边海洋资源开发和安全保障提供数据和信息产品服务。     

Wave model predictions in the Black Sea: Sensitivity to wind fields

This paper evaluates the impact of using different wind field products on the performance of the third generation wave model SWAN in the Black Sea and its capability for predicting both normal and extreme wave conditions during 1996. Wind data were obtained from NCEP CFSR, NASA MERRA, JRA-25, ECMWF Operational, ECMWF ERA40, and ECMWF ERA-Interim. Wave data were obtained in 1996 at three locations in the Black Sea within the NATO TU-WAVES project. The quality of wind fields was assessed by comparing them with satellite data. These wind data were used as forcing fields for the generation of wind waves. Time series of predicted significant wave height (H_mo), mean wave period (T_m02), and mean wave direction (DIR) were compared with observations at three offshore buoys in the Black Sea and its performance was quantified in terms of statistical parameters. In addition, wave model performance in terms of significant wave height was also assessed by comparing them against satellite data.The main scope of this work is the impact of the different available wind field products on the wave hindcast performance. In addition, the sensitivity of wave model forecasts due to variations in spatial and temporal resolutions of the wind field products was investigated. Finally, the impact of using various wind field products on predicting extreme wave events was analyzed by focussing on storm peaks and on an individual storm event in October 1996. The numerical results revealed that the CFSR winds are more suitable in comparison with the others for modelling both normal and extreme events in the Black Sea. The results also show that wave model output is critically sensitive to the choice of the wind field product, such that the quality of the wind fields is reflected in the quality of the wave predictions. A finer wind spatial resolution leads to an improvement of the wave model predictions, while a finer temporal resolution in the wind fields generally does not significantly improve agreement between observed and simulated wave data.     

Testing and verifying the wind wave model with an optimized source function

With the purpose of revealing the actual advantages of the new source function that was earlier proposed in [5] for use in numerical wind wave models, its testing and verification was carried out by means of modification of the WAM (Cycle-4) model. The verification was performed on the basis of a comparison of the results of wave simulation for a given wind field with the buoy observation data obtained in three oceanic regions. In the Barents Sea, this kind of comparison was made for wave observations from a single buoy with an interval of 6 hours for a period of 3 years. In two regions of the North Atlantic, the comparison was performed for 3 buoys in both regions for observation periods of 30 days with an interval of 1 hour. Estimations of the simulation accuracy were obtained for a series of wind wave parameters, and they were compared with the original and modified WAM model. Advantages of the modified model consisting of the enhancement of the calculation speed by 20–25% and a 1.5- to 2-fold increase in the simulation accuracy for the significant wave height and the mean period were proved.     

Modelling surface drifting of buoys during a rapidly-moving weather front in the Gulf of Finland, Baltic Sea

The Gulf of Finland is an elongated estuary located in the north-eastern extremity of the Baltic Sea. This semi-enclosed sea-area is subject to heavy sea traffic, and is one of the main risk areas for oil accidents in the Baltic. The continuous development and validation of operational particle drift and oil-spill forecasting systems is thus seen to be essential for this sea-area.Here, the results of a three-day drift experiment in May 2003 are discussed. The field studies were performed using GPS-positioned surface floating buoys. The aim of this paper is to evaluate how well models can reproduce the drift of these buoys. Model simulations, both in forecast and hindcast modes, were carried out by three different 3D hydrodynamic models, the results of which are evaluated by comparing the calculated drifts with observations. These models were forced by HIRLAM (High Resolution Limited Area Model) and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) meteorological forecast fields.The simulated drift of the buoys showed a good agreement with observations even when, during the study period, a rapidly-changing wind situation was observed to affect the investigation area; in this situation the winds turned about 100 degrees in half an hour. In such a case it is a very complicated task to forecast the drifters' routes: there is a need to regularly update the meteorological forcing fields and to use these regularly-updated fields throughout the simulations. It is furthermore recommended that forecasts should be made using several circulation models and several meteorological forecasts, in order to get an overview of the accuracy of the forecasted drifts and related differences in between the forecasts.     

The model of tracing drift targets and its application in the South China Sea

A Leeway-Trace model was established for the traceability analysis of drifting objects at sea. The model was based on the Leeway model which is a Monte Carlo-based ensemble trajectory model, and a method of realistic traceability analysis was proposed in this study by using virtual spatiotemporal drift trajectory prediction. Here,measured data from a drifting buoy observation experiment in the northern South China Sea in April 2019,combined with surface current data obtained from the finite volu...     

On the Impact of the Assimilation of SARAL/AltiKa Wave Data in the Operational Wave Model MFWAM

As a part of our calibration/validation activities five months of SARAL/AltiKa wave data have been analyzed in this study. A robust quality control procedure using threshold values on signal and retrieved wave heights was implemented before the assimilation. Assimilation runs in the wave model Météo-France (MFWAM) were performed for a long period. The validation of the model outputs was performed with independent wave observations from altimeter and buoy data. The results indicate good performance in terms of bias and scatter index for the significant wave height and the peak wave period. Statistical analyses were performed for different ocean basins (high and intermediate latitudes and tropics). The use of SARAL/AltiKa and Jason-2 wave data combined was also investigated. This leads to further improvements for the analysis and forecast periods. In other respects, the impact of the assimilation of SARAL/AltiKa wave data is discussed for waves under strong wind conditions such as typhoons Fitow and Danas which occurred in early October 2013.     

Sea state estimation using multiple ships simultaneously as sailing wave buoys

The article presents initial ideas towards a network-based approach for sea state estimation used for marine operations and other maritime applications. In principle, all available means, ranging from in situ buoys, fleet of ships to remote sensing by satellite and aircraft, could be considered, emphasising that each means and any combinations among may act simultaneously. This study focuses on just one of the means; the use of ships as sailing wave buoys. The article introduces the wave buoy analogy, i.e. ship-as-a-wave-buoy, and it makes a proposal on how to impose (different) weights to the single ship-specific wave spectrum estimates obtained from multiple ships. Moreover, the work includes a discussion about the importance to associate a measure to reflect the (un)certainty of the wave spectrum estimate. The article presents a numerical case study, where multiple ships act simultaneously as wave spectrum-estimators. The case study relies on numerical motion simulations, as appropriate full-scale data is not yet available. In the analysis, it is shown that the use of simultaneous data from multiple ships leads to more accurate wave spectrum estimations.     

Impact of Multisatellite Altimeter Data Assimilation on Wave Analysis and Forecast

Satellite altimetry has become an important discipline in the development of sea-state forecasting or more generally in operational oceanography. Météo-France Marine and Oceanography Division is much involved in altimetry, in which it is also one of the main operational customers. Sea-state forecasts are produced every day with the help of numerical models assimilating Fast Delivery Product altimeter data from ESA ERS-2 satellite, available in real-time (3–5 h). These forecasts are transmitted to seamen as part of safety mission of persons and properties, or specific assistance for particular operations. With the launch of ENVISAT (from ESA, launched on 1 March 2002, to take over the ERS mission) and JASON-1 (from CNES/NASA, launched on 7 December 2001, successor of TOPEX/Poseidon), we have an unprecedented opportunity of improved coverage with the availability in quasi-real-time of data from several altimeters. The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of using multisources of altimeter data in real-time, to improve wave model analyses and forecasts, at global scale. Since July 2003, Météo-France injects the wind/wave JASON-1 Operational Sensor Data Record on the WMO Global Transmitting System, making them available in near real-time to the international meteorological community. Similarly, fast delivery altimeter data of ENVISAT will improve coverage and contribute to the constant progress of marine meteorology. For this purpose, significant wave height time series were generated using the Wave Model WAM and the assimilation of altimeter wave heights from two satellites ERS-2 and JASON-1. The results were then compared to Geosat Follow-On (GFO, U.S. Navy Satellite) and moored buoy wave data. It is shown that the impact of data assimilation, when two (ERS-2 and JASON-1) or three (ERS-2 with JASON-1 and GFO) sources of data are used instead of one (ERS-2), in term of significant wave height, is larger in wave model analyses but smaller in wave model forecasts. However, there is no improvement in terms of wave periods, both in the analysis and forecast periods.     

Labrador Sea convection and subpolar North Atlantic Deep Water export in the SODA assimilation model

Labrador Sea convection was most intense and reached the greatest depths in the early 1990s, followed by weaker, shallower, and more variable convection after 1995. The Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) version 2.0.2/2.0.4 assimilation model is used to explore convective activity in the North Atlantic Ocean for the period from 1992 to 2007. Hydrographic conditions, which are relatively well observed during this period, are used to compare modeled and observed winter mixed-layer depths and water mass anomalies in relation to Deep Western Boundary Current transports and meridional overturning circulation (MOC) changes at the exit of the subpolar basin. The assimilation differs markedly from local observations in the March mixed-layer depth, which represents deep convection and water mass transformation. However, mean MOC rates at the exit of the subpolar gyre, forced by stratification in the mid-latitudes, are similar to estimates based on observations and show no significant decrease during the 1992–2007 period. SODA reproduces the deep Labrador Sea Water formation in the western North Atlantic without any clear indication of significant formation in the Irminger Sea while the lighter upper Labrador Sea Water density range is reached in the Irminger Sea in the 1990s, in agreement with existing assumptions of deep convection in the Irminger Sea and also supported by computed lag correlations with the Labrador Sea. Deep Water transformation mainly takes place in the eastern North Atlantic. The introduction of CFC-11 into the SODA model as a tracer reproduces the mean and multiyear variations of observed distributions.     

Has wind–wave modeling reached its limit?

This article uses a comparison of four different numerical wave prediction models for hindcast wave conditions in Lake Michigan during a 10-day episode in October 1988 to illustrate that typical wave prediction models based on the concept of a wave energy spectrum may have reached a limit in the accuracy with which they can simulate realistic wave generation and growth conditions. In the hindcast study we compared the model results to observed wave height and period measurements from two deep water NOAA/NDBC weather buoys and from a nearshore Waverider buoy. Hourly wind fields interpolated from a large number of coastal and overlake observations were used to drive the models. The same numerical grid was used for all the models. The results show that while the individual model predictions deviate from the measurements by various amounts, they all tend to reflect the general trend and patterns of the wave measurements. The differences between the model results are often similar in magnitude to differences between model results and observations. Although the four models tested represent a wide range of sophistication in their treatment of wave growth dynamics, they are all based on the assumption that the sea state can be represented by a wave energy spectrum. Because there are more similarities among the model results than significant differences, we believe that this assumption may be the limiting factor for substantial improvements in wave modeling.     

Evaluation of a high-resolution wave hindcast model SWAN for the West Mediterranean basin

This study aims to present an evaluation and implementation of a high-resolution SWAN wind wave hindcast model forced by the CFSR wind fields in the west Mediterranean basin, taking into account the recent developments in wave modelling as the new source terms package ST6. For this purpose, the SWAN model was calibrated based on one-year wave observations of Azeffoune buoy (Algerian coast) and validated against eleven wave buoys measurements through the West Mediterranean basin. For the calibration process, we focused on the whitecapping dissipation coefficient C_ds and on the exponential wind wave growth and whitecapping dissipation source terms. The statistical error analysis of the calibration results led to conclude that the SWAN model calibration corrected the underestimation of the significant wave height hindcasts in the default mode and improved its accuracy in the West Mediterranean basin. The exponential wind wave growth of Komen et al (1984) and the whitecapping dissipation source terms of Janssen (1991) with C_ds = 1.0 have been thus recommended for the western Mediterranean basin. The comparison of the simulation results obtained using this calibrated parameters against eleven measurement buoys showed a high performance of the calibrated SWAN model with an average scatter index of 30% for the significant wave heights and 19% for the mean wave period. This calibrated SWAN model will constitute a practical wave hindcast model with high spatial resolution (˜3 km) and high accuracy in the Algerian basin, which will allow us to proceed to a finer mesh size using the SWAN nested grid system in this area.     

Predicting significant wave height off the northeast coast of the United States

To develop a simple method to predict the significant wave height, we analyze 18 years of hourly observations from 12 different buoys that are off the northeast coast of the United States. Water depths ranged from 19 to 4427 m for these moored buoys. We find that, on average, all of these buoys exhibit a region of constant wave height for 10-m wind speeds between 0 and 4 m s⁻¹. That wave height does, however, depend on water depth. For wind speeds above 4 m s^–1, the wave height increases as the square of the wind speed; but the multiplicative factor is again a function of water depth. We synthesize these results in a prediction scheme that yields the significant wave height from simple functions of water depth and 10-m wind speed for wind speeds up to 25 m s^–1.     

基于海浪谱分解与重构的资料同化试验

针对有效波高资料提出一种海浪谱分解与重构的资料同化方案:利用历史时段内的有效波高观测资料和模式计算波高场,采用最优插值方法得到分析波高场;在WAVEWATCH-Ⅲ模式的波浪能量密度谱和有效波高分析值之间引入一个变异系数矩阵,描述模式的误差,以此为状态向量构建卡尔曼滤波系统,对分解过的海浪谱进行修正和重构,得到同化后的海浪谱初始场。利用美国阿拉斯加湾北部海域的7个浮标站进行同化和72 h预报试验,对连续1个月的预报结果进行统计表明:采用该同化方案后24 h预报结果的有效波高均方根误差比未同化的结果降低了0.13 m;同化方案对预报效果的影响可持续36 h左右,随着预报时效延长,同化的效果减弱。     

卫星高度计波高数据同化对西北太平洋海浪数值预报的影响评估

通过数值试验验证卫星高度计波高数据同化对西北太平洋3 d海浪预报的改进效果。驱动海浪模式的强迫场采用国家海洋环境预报中心基于MM5模式预报的风场,波高数据同化使用的观测数据是Jason-1卫星高度计有效波高。用最优插值数据同化方法获得海浪有效波高的最优估计并重构相应的海浪方向谱,以此为初始场进行为期3 d的数值预报试验。与没有同化的预报进行了比较和分析,结果表明卫星高度计海浪数据同化对0~72 h预报有不同程度的明显改善,改进程度随预报时效的增加而减少。     

Analysis of the surface circulation in the Black Sea performed by using drifting buoys with satellite communications

We present the results of drift experiments with 14LOBAN-TM buoys carried out for the first time in the Black Sea in 1987–1997. We analyze the specific features of application of buoys in summer and winter. We present the main results of investigation of the Main Black Sea Current by drift methods and joint processing of drift contact and remote infrared observations. We demonstrate the possibility of enhancement of the quality of observations due to the application of SVPB drifters of new generation equipped with underwater sails and meters of atmospheric pressure in the near-surface atmospheric layer. Translated by Peter V. Malyshev and Dmitry V. Malyshev