透视中俄石油管道"路线图"风波

中国和俄罗斯是比邻的两个大国，中国是日前世界最大的石油消费国和进口国之一，俄罗斯则是世界最大的石油生产国和出口国之一、从地缘政治的角度出发，应该大力发展两国各个领域的合作，尤其是石油领域合作的前景十分广阔，但目前合作的基础却比较薄弱。本文针对中俄石油管道改线风波作了深层次的原因分析，进而对中俄两国的石油业供需现状和发展前景做出评估，在此基础上提出我国在未来的中俄百油领域合作中应采取的四项措施。     

The selection of internal migration models for European regions

"A full multiregional projection model requires migration data that are simultaneously classified by age and gender and region of origin and region of destination. Except for a very small number of regions, these data requirements are so high that aggregation of the data (which is equivalent to simplification of the model) is called for. This paper investigates the extent to which the full internal migration matrix can be simplified without seriously affecting the performance of the resulting multiregional model. Using IPF (iterative proportional fitting) methods, a log-linear analysis of alternative model specifications is made, using data for Italy, the Netherlands and the UK....A reasonable balance between goodness-of-fit and parsimony is found for the model in which time interacts with the main effects only (i.e. with age/sex, with origin and with destination)."     

Thermal state of the Roer Valley Graben,part of the European Cenozoic Rift System

We performed a detailed analysis of the thermal state of the Cenozoic Roer Valley Graben, the north–western branch of the European Cenozoic Rift System, based on a new set of temperature data. We developed a numerical technique for correcting bottom hole temperatures, including an evaluation of the uncertainty of thermal parameters. Comparison with drill stem test temperatures indicated that the uncertainty in corrected bottom hole temperatures using a two‐component numerical model is approximately ± 4 °C, which is much more accurate than the up to 15 °C errors encountered in often‐used line‐source or Horner correction methods. The subsurface temperatures and the derived regional heat flow estimates of 53 ± 6 to 63 ± 6 mW m^?2 show no significant difference between the central rift and the adjacent structural highs. The absence of an elevated heat flow is attributed to the low amount of lithospheric thinning during the Cenozoic rifting phase (β=1.06–1.15). A local thermal anomaly exceeding +10 °C was found in five wells in the north–western part of the rift basin at depths of 1000–1500 m, and is most likely caused by the upward flow of fluids along faults, whereas lower temperatures in the upper 1500 m in the southern part of the rift basin could indicate cooling by topography‐driven groundwater flow. Conflicting ideas exist on the active or passive rifting mechanisms responsible for the formation of the different rift basins of European Cenozoic Rift System. The low spatial variation in heat flow found in this study suggests that the mechanism responsible for forming the Roer Valley Graben is passive rifting.     

基于全球通道与本地蜂鸣的张江IC产业集群演化

产业集群演化是全球通道和本地蜂鸣共同作用的结果.在产业集群不同发展阶段,其全球通道和本地蜂鸣的作用方式和效果并不相同.通过调研访谈张江高科技园区集成电路企业及相关机构,分析了产业集群的不同阶段特征和发展轨迹,发现产业集群主要驱动因素由全球通道向本地蜂鸣转变、产业集群由外生向内生演变的发展轨迹.在产业集群孕育期,跨国公司入驻具有决定性作用.在产业集群形成期,跨国公司全球生产网络和跨国技术社区是与外界联系的两种全球通道,也是产业集群发展的关键所在.在产业集群成熟期,全球通道的作用相对下降,本地蜂鸣、创新环境和区域品牌等内生因素作用凸显.为了防止产业集群锁定和衰退,当地政府管理部门需要同时注重本地蜂鸣和全球通道建设.     

The research agenda of the European Science Foundation's GISDATA scientific programme

Abstract

In January 1993 the European Science Foundation launched a four-year scientific programme on geographical information systems. The programme aims at overcoming the existing fragmentation of GIS research in Europe and addresses three key areas: European-wide data base design, data integration, and social and environmental applications. In each of these areas a number of priorities have been identified which provide the focus of the initiatives and collaborative ventures envisaged by the programme. This article describes the programme's research agenda and sets it in the context of the activities of the European Science Foundation.     

基于运费最低的中国原油管道网络空间优化研究

以规模及运量最大的中国东部原油管网为研究对象,选取2009年37条管道和满洲里-大庆铁路、20个主要油田及港口（口岸）、32个主要炼厂,建立原油供需平衡表,基于运费最低并考虑到不同管径管道的运输成本差异,结合空间分析与线性规划的研究思路与方法,对东部原油管网进行空间优化研究及分类评价。结果表明：（1）2009年中国东部原油管网优化运费较实际运费减少了34.5%,表明原油管网总体流通效率不高,具有较大提升空间;（2）东北地区各管道流通状况相对较好;华北地区管道均为负荷不足或无负荷类型,流通效率不高;华东地区黄淮分区的多数管道为负荷不足类型,仅有两条百万吨流量管道为良好类型,长江中下游分区的甬沪宁线和仪金线为超负荷类型。     

西气东输管道沿线河西走廊地区生态系统评价与生态安全保障体系建设

西气东输管道沿线河西走廊地区是典型的荒漠-绿洲-戈壁区．具有干湿交错带、农牧交错带、森林边缘带以及沙漠边缘带等多种环境脆弱带，管道施工造成地表土壤，植被的破坏，加剧荒漠化过程，还会诱发沙尘暴，使地区生态环境进一步恶化，直接影响到管道的安全运行，从区域生态安全和管道安全双重角度提出区域的生态安全保障体系具有重要意义。以西气东输管道沿线河西走廊地区为例，对管道沿线两侧各10km内进行了生态系统制图分析，识别出该区的主要生态系统类型，并对其中主要的3种生态系统进行了评价。在此基础上，针对几种典型生态系统区如裸地生态系统、绿洲生态系统、戈壁半灌木矮半灌木荒漠生态系统地区提出来了生态安全保障体系，具有保障区域生态安全和管道安全运行双重意义。     

The Geography of the 1994 Nordic Vote on European Union Membership*

In 1994, support for European Union (EU) membership was highly variable across Norway, Sweden, and Finland. The “no” vote was strongest in rural areas eligible for substantial EU subsidies. Moreover, the majority voted against EU membership in Norway. To explain these outcomes, this article focuses on the ways in which local and national differences mediated interpretations of the issues raised during the campaign. The analysis highlights important forces shaping northern Europe today and their implications for the EU in the years ahead.     

城市地下管网信息管理问题研究

随着城市信息化进程的加速,城市生活的节奏大大加快,城市供水、供电、供暖等地下管道设施的使用频率也大幅增加.各种管道纵横交错、结构复杂,这就使得城市地下管网信息的现代化管理面临严峻的考验.地下管网具有埋于地下不透明、信息量大、保存期长、要求不问断运行使用等特点,故仅靠图纸、图表等形式记录保存管网资料,并在此基础上进行的人工管理已经不能适应规模日益扩大、经济社会活动日益加快的现代城市发展的要求.针对以上问题,阐述了城市地下管网信息管理的现状,重点分析了管网信息管理的技术发展历程以及管理中存在的问题,最后对地下管网信息的管理提出了相应对策.     

The city,the (Member) state,and the European Union

This contribution to a Debate on “The Nation-State and the city” foregrounds the recently adopted Urban Agenda for the European Union. It discusses the new role of cities in the European policy making process and its relevance for relations between State and City in the light of EU membership.