Storm Surges from Extra-Tropical Cyclones

The possible influence of climate change on the tracks of the extra-tropical cyclones as well as storm surges is studied. Two differentdata bases have been used: one for the Great Lakes of North America and the otherfor the German Bight in the North Sea of Europe. For the Great Lakes region,significant east-west and north-south shifts in the tracks of ETC'S with decadal periodicities have been observed. However, there was no trend in the amplitudes of storm surges. The most important result for the Great Lakes is that, depending upon its position relative to the constantly shifting storm tracks, a given location could eitherexperience a major storm surge or could miss out completely.The storm surges in the German Bight in general, and at Cuxhaven in particular, appear to show a slightly increasing trend in the latterpart of the 20th century. However, the most significant result for the German Bightis that the number of storm tides (i.e., multiple peaks in a given storm surge event)definitely has shown an increase in the second half of the 20th century. This increase isinterpreted as due to the influence of meso-scale weather systems embedded in the synoptic scale ETCs.     

Storm surges in the Arabian Gulf

The storm surge phenomenon in the Arabian Gulf, including the Strait of Hormuz, is discussed with particular emphasis on the development of mathematical models for prediction purposes. The Gulf is mainly influenced by extra-tropical weather systems, whereas the region south of the Strait of Hormuz is affected by tropical cyclones. The west-to-east directed extra-tropical cyclone tracks and the generally east-to-west directed tropical cyclone tracks converge near the Strait of Hormuz. A meso-scale weather system that deserves special attention in prescribing the meteorological forcing functions is the so-called winter Shamal. A two-dimensional numerical model is developed to study the storm surges in the Arabian Gulf. The results show that the Gulf is subject to major negative and positive storm surges. Strong winds associated with the Shamal system, coupled with atmospheric pressure gradients, topography and tidal effects, can give rise to water level deviations of several meters. Storm surges observed during the period 17–19 January 1973 show that negative values in the 0.5 to 1.0m range were widespread in the Gulf.     

Simulation of water levels and extent of coastal inundation due to a cyclonic storm along the east coast of India

The devastation due to storm surge flooding caused by extreme wind waves generated by the cyclones is a severe apprehension along the coastal regions of India. In order to coexist with nature’s destructive forces in any vulnerable coastal areas, numerical ocean models are considered today as an essential tool to predict the sea level rise and associated inland extent of flooding that could be generated by a cyclonic storm crossing any coastal stretch. For this purpose, the advanced 2D depth-integrated (ADCIRC-2DDI) circulation model based on finite-element formulation is configured for the simulation of surges and water levels along the east coast of India. The model is integrated using wind stress forcing, representative of 1989, 1996, and 2000 cyclones, which crossed different parts of the east coast of India. Using the long-term inventory of cyclone database, synthesized tracks are deduced for vulnerable coastal districts of Tamil Nadu. Return periods are also computed for the intensity and frequency of cyclones for each coastal district. Considering the importance of Kalpakkam region, extreme water levels are computed based on a 50-year return period data, for the generation of storm surges, induced water levels, and extent of inland inundation. Based on experimental evidence, it is advocated that this region could be inundated/affected by a storm with a threshold pressure drop of 66 hpa. Also it is noticed that the horizontal extent of inland inundation ranges between 1 and 1.5 km associated with the peak surge. Another severe cyclonic storm in Tamil Nadu (November 2000 cyclone), which made landfall approximately 20 km south of Cuddalore, has been chosen to simulate surges and water levels. Two severe cyclonic storms that hit Andhra coast during 1989 and 1996, which made landfall near Kavali and Kakinada, respectively, are also considered and computed run-up heights and associated water levels. The simulations exhibit a good agreement with available observations from the different sources on storm surges and associated inundation caused by these respective storms. It is believed that this study would help the coastal authorities to develop a short- and long-term disaster management, mitigation plan, and emergency response in the event of storm surge flooding.     

Storm Surge Hazard in Canada

Storm surges occur frequently in Canada mainlydue to extra-tropical cyclones (ETC'S) also referred to as winter storms. The hurricanes from the Gulf of Mexico can affect eastern Canada including Lakes Ontario and Erie regions, after they get modified and acquire some extra-tropical characteristics. Storm surges have occurred both on the Atlantic and Pacific coasts, in the Gulf of St.Lawrence, St.Lawrence Estuary, Bay of Fundy, Hudson Bay, James Bay, Northwest Passage, Beaufort Sea, the Great Lakes and other large lakes such as Lake Winnipeg.Squall lines which are embedded in the largerscale synoptic systems like the ETC'S could also generate storm surges (referred to as edge waves) in Lakes Huron, Erie and Ontario (edge waves are most prominent in Lake Michigan, but Canada has no territory touching this lake). The effect of climate change on storm surges in the Canadian water bodies could be two-fold. First, there may be some possible intensification of the weather systems and the associated wind fields resulting in bigger surges. Second, and probably even more relevant, is an east-west and north-south shift in the tracks of the weather systems, which could expose certain new areas to storm surge activity.A high priority for proper assessment of storm surge hazard is the production of maps showing inundation zones for storm surges that might occur in populated coastal areas. Such maps can be used to improve public awareness of tsunamis and for planning purposes (i.e., to reduce or avoid the risk).     

Storm surge modelling for the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea

Most of the countries around the North Indian Ocean are threatened by storm surges associated with severe tropical cyclones. The destruction due to the storm surge flooding is a serious concern along the coastal regions of India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Oman. Storm surges cause heavy loss of lives and property damage to the coastal structures and losses of agriculture which lead to annual economic losses in these countries. About 300,000 lives were lost in one of the most severe cyclones that hit Bangladesh (then East Pakistan) in November 1970. The Andhra Cyclone devastated part of the eastern coast of India, killing about 10,000 persons in November 1977. More recently, the Chittagong cyclone of April 1991 killed 140,000 people in Bangladesh, and the Orissa coast of India was struck by a severe cyclonic storm in October 1999, killing more than 15,000 people besides enormous loss to the property in the region. These and most of the world’s greatest natural disasters associated with the tropical cyclones have been directly attributed to storm surges. The main objective of this article is to highlight the recent developments in storm surge prediction in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.     

Simulation of Storm Surges Along Myanmar Coast Using a Location Specific Numerical Model

Coastal flooding induced by storm surges associated with tropical cyclones is one of the greatest natural hazards sometimes even surpassing earthquakes. Although the frequency of tropical cyclones in the Indian seas is not high, the coastal region of India, Bangladesh and Myanmar suffer most in terms of life and property caused by the surges. Therefore, a location-specific storm surge prediction model for the coastal regions of Myanmar has been developed to carry out simulations of the 1975 Pathein, 1982 Gwa, 1992 Sandoway and 1994 Sittwe cyclones. The analysis area of the model covers from 8° N to 23° N and 90° E to 100° E. A uniform grid distance of about 9 km is taken along latitudinal and longitudinal directions. The coastal boundaries in the model are represented by orthogonal straight line segments. Using this model, numerical experiments are performed to simulate the storm surge heights associated with past severe cyclonic storms which struck the coastal regions of Myanmar. The model results are in agreement with the limited available surge estimates and observations.     

Numerical simulation and prediction of storm surges and water levels in Shanghai harbour and its vicinity

A water level model incorporating the nonlinear interactions between tides and storm surges for numerical simulation and prediction use is developed in this paper. Using a conventional two-dimensional nonlinear storm surge model and tide model and associated semi-momentum finite-difference scheme, both the storm surges caused by the tropical cyclones hitting Shanghai and the tides in related regions during the period 1949–1990, are numerically simulated. In simulating storm surges, 16 tropical cyclones with different kinds of tracks are chosen. Meanwhile, to simulate tides, the governing equations for tides, along with 63 prescribed tidal constituents at open sea boundaries are numerically computed. Sixteen associated cases of total water-level simulations comprising joint effects linking surges and tides and one case of real-time prediction have been carried out in 1990 on the basis of computed surges and tides. The total water levels thus obtained in this way give better results than those obtained by the traditional method, i.e. without taking into account, in the model, nonlinear coupling between storm surges and tides.Comparison of the predictions of storm surges and the total water level with the hindcast ones in 1990 showed that a relatively larger error of prediction mainly results from the incorrect forecasting of tropical cyclones but not from the prediction method itself.     

Developments in storm tide modelling and risk assessment in the Australian region

An overview is provided of some of the significant storm tide modelling and risk assessment studies undertaken over the past few years within Australia and the nearby oceanic regions for government and industry. Emphasis is placed on the need for integrated planning and forecasting approaches for storm tide risk assessment. The importance of the meteorological forcing and the appropriate modelling of each of the storm tide components, namely, astronomical tide, storm surge, breaking wave setup and coastal inundation is discussed. The critical role of tropical cyclone “best track” datasets for risk assessment studies and the potential impacts on design criteria and risk assessment studies is highlighted, together with the challenge of developing credible enhanced-greenhouse climate change scenarios. It is concluded that storm tide modelling needs to be undertaken in a holistic framework that considers the relative uncertainties in each of the various elements—atmospheric, hydrodynamic and data, as well as addressing operational forecasting, design and planning needs.     

Coastal flooding: impacts of coupled wave–surge–tide models

Wind waves and elevated water levels together can cause flooding in low-lying coastal areas, where the water level may be a combination of mean sea level, tides and surges generated by storm events. In areas with a wide continental shelf a travelling external surge may combine with the locally generated surge and waves and there can be significant interaction between the propagation of the tide and surge. Wave height at the coast is controlled largely by water depth. So the effect of tides and surges on waves must also be considered, while waves contribute to the total water level by means of wave setup through radiation stress. These processes are well understood and accurately predicted by models, assuming good bathymetry and wind forcing is available. Other interactions between surges and waves include the processes of surface wind-stress and bottom friction as well as depth and current refraction of waves by surge water levels and currents, and some of the details of these processes are still not well understood. The recent coastal flooding in Myanmar (May 2008) in the Irrawaddy River Delta is an example of the severity of such events, with a surge of over 3 m exacerbated by heavy precipitation. Here, we review the existing capability for combined modelling of tides, surges and waves, their interactions and the development of coupled models.     

Causes of the Unusual Coastal Flooding Generated by Typhoon Winnie on the West Coast of Korea

On 19 August 1997 Typhoon Winnie brought unusually strong and extensive coastal flooding from storm surges to the west coast of Korea, which was farenough from the typhoon's center to lack significant local wind and pressure forcing.Sea levels at some tidal stations broke 36-year records and resulted in property damages of $18,000,000. This study investigated the causes of the unusual high sea levels by using an Astronomical-Meteorological Index (AMI) and a coupled ocean wave-circulation model developed by the present authors. The AMI analysis and the numerical simulation of the surge event showed that the major cause of the high sea levels was not the standard inverse barometric effect supplemented by water piling up along the coast by the wind field of the typhoon as is usual for a typical storm surge, but rather an enhanced tidal forcing from the perigean spring tide and water transported into the Yellow Sea by the currents generated by the typhoon. The numerical results also indicated that the transported water accounted for about 50% of the increased sea levels. Another cause for the coastal flooding was the resonance coupling of the Yellow Sea (with a natural normal mode period of 37.8 h) and the predominant period of the surge (36.5 h).     

Coastal hazard mapping in the Cuddalore region, South India

It is estimated that nearly one-third of India’s population lives on the coast and is dependent on its resources. Shoreline erosion, storm surges and extreme events have resulted in severe loss of human life, damage to ecosystems and to property along the coast of India. Studies carried out in the Cuddalore region of South India reveal that this low-lying coastal zone, which suffered significant erosion during the last century, has been severely affected by the tsunami of 2004, storm floods and cyclones. In response to these impacts, a variety of coastal defense measures and adaptation strategies have been implemented in the region, although with only limited success. In order to inform future coastal planning in this region, the work reported here identifies a composite hazard line, seaward of which coastal flooding events will have a return interval of less than 1 in 100 years. The area landward of the coastal hazard line will be unaffected by 100 years of coastal erosion at present day rates. The study directly supports the Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) Plan of the Tamil Nadu State through the identification and assessment of coastal hazards and the overall vulnerability to coastal flooding and erosion. The key results from this pilot study will be used directly by the State of Tamil Nadu in the protection of the coastal livelihoods, better conservation measures and sustainable development along the coast. This study is a step toward mapping the hazard line for the entire coast of India that helps protect human lives and property.     

Potential impacts of extreme storm surges on a low-lying densely populated coastline: the case of Dunkirk area, Northern France

Along the southern coast of the North Sea, a large proportion of the Flemish coastal plain consists of densely populated reclaimed land, much of which lying below mean high tide level. This is particularly the case along the northern coast of France, from Dunkirk to the Belgium border, where the shoreline consists of coastal dunes that protect low-lying reclaimed lands from marine flooding. This area is vulnerable and subject to several risks. Extreme weather conditions could induce strong surges that could cause (1) a shoreline retreat, (2) marine submersion and (3) land and/or urban flooding due to drainage problems of the polders. Highly energetic events such as the November 2007 storm could have had much more severe consequences especially if they occurred at high tide and/or during a spring tide. In the current context of global change and projected sea-level rise, it is then important for the local authorities to take into account the potential impacts and return periods of such events, in order to implement coastal risk policies prevention and management, to reinforce sea defense, increase pumping station efficiency and plan warning systems against marine submersion and polder flooding, which is not the case yet in Northern France.     

Mitigation of Flooding and Cyclone Hazard in Orissa, India

Storm surges generated by the strong tangential wind stressesand normal atmospheric pressure gradients at the sea surface due to tropical cyclones (TC'S)have been studied with the goal of detecting any significant and systematic changes due to climatechange. Cyclone and storm surge data for the 19th and 20th centuries for the Bay of Bengalcoast of the state of Orissa in India are available to varying degrees of quality and detail,the data being more scientific since the advent of the India Meteorological Department in 1875.Based on more precise data for the period 1971 to 2000, statistical projections have been madeon the probable intensities of tropical cyclones for various return periods. The super cyclone ofOctober 29, 1999 (SC1999) appears to have a return period of about 50 years. The cyclones of1831, 1885 and possibly the one in 1895 could have been super cyclones. During the 19th century,there were 72 flooding events associated with cyclones, whereas in the 20th century therewere only 56 events. There was no observational evidence to suggest that there was an increaseeither in the frequency or intensity of cyclones or storm surges on the coast of Orissa. However,the impact of cyclones and surges is on the increase due to increase of population and coastalinfrastructure.     

Cyclones and storm surges in Bangladesh: Some mitigative measures

Bangladesh, with its repeated cycle of floods, cyclones, and storm surges, has proved to be one of the most disaster-prone areas of the world. During the years from 1797 to 1991, Bangladesh has been hit by 60 severe cyclones (mostly accompanied by storm surges). This paper gives a brief account of these disasters with particular reference to the wind speed, surge height, loss of life, and damage to crops and properties, etc.In order to protect the coastal areas of Bangladesh from cyclonic storm surges and floods, a major system of embankments was constructed during the 1960s and 1970s, but this is now in need of rehabilitation. The Cyclone Protection Project, which was approved by the World Bank in 1989, would rehabilitate some of the existing embankments, build new embankments, and construct roads. Locally available materials, indigenous technology, and cheap surplus manpower should be used in this project. A variety of fruit trees should be planted along the dikes and roads.To the south-western part of Bangladesh bordering the Bay of Bengal, lies the world's largest single mangrove tract, known as the Sunderban, which covers a total area of 571 500 ha. This mangrove forest is of extreme importance since it provides efficient protection to life and property against cyclones and storm surges. But due to deforestation, the width of the mangrove belt is being rapidly diminished. The author therefore lays emphasis on coastal afforestation.Absolute security against cyclone hazard is probably out of the question, but an effective cyclone warning response can definitely reduce loss of life and damage to property. The author discusses the current conditions for cyclone forecasting and warning in Bangladesh, and then puts forward some proposals for improving the Cyclone Preparedness Programme.     

A review of storm-surge research in China

In this paper are briefly introduced: (1) the general situations of storm hazards caused by different weather types; (2) the acquisition of data needed in storm-surge forecasting; (3) the current forecasting techniques of storm surges; (4) the calculations of storm surge with different return periods for coastal engineering and the exploitation of the ocean; and (5) the basic theoretical study of storm surges.     

Tropical cyclone wind field forcing for surge models: critical issues and sensitivities

Several wind fields developed for Hurricane Katrina (2005) in the US Gulf of Mexico (GOM) are applied with the ADCIRC hydrodynamic model to explore the sensitivity of predictions of coastal surges to wind fields developed by alternative methods. The alternative model predictions are evaluated against water level measurements provided by gages at two coastal locations. It is found that all the post-event analyzed wind fields yield a range of predictions of only ±10% of the available peak surge measurements regardless of whether the wind fields are produced by dynamical boundary layer models, kinematic analysis methods or a blend. However, the richness of meteorological forcing data in the GOM is not typically matched in other basins affected by tropical cyclones and errors may be much larger where storm intensity and size parameters are estimated mainly from satellite data. The attributes and remaining critical deficiencies of current methods for surface wind specification in both data-rich and data-poor environments are reviewed.     

Mitigating the effects of storm surges generated by tropical cyclones: A proposal

One of the regions of the globe that is frequently and very significantly affected by storm surges is Bangladesh. These high amplitude water-level oscillations are generated by the meteorological forcing fields due to tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal. The tide also plays a significant role in determining the time history of the total water level. Due to the greenhouse warming associated with the increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, it is expected that the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal will increase substantially within the next 50 to 100 years. This new breed of tropical cyclones, referred to as hypercanes, will generate storm surges on the coast of Bangladesh which could attain amplitudes of up to 15 m, much greater than the present-day amplitudes of up to 6 m. Various mitigation procedures are discussed and compared.     

Meteorological factors affecting the speed of movement and related impacts of extratropical cyclones along the U.S. east coast

The speeds of historical cool-season extratropical cyclones along the U.S. east coast, hereafter East Coast Winter Storms (ECWS), occurring during the period from 1951 to 2006 were computed. Average storm speed was 13.8 ms⁻¹ with stronger storms generally moving faster than weaker storms and faster storms forming during the midwinter months (December–March). There was no clear trend in ECWS speed during the time period, although considerable season-to-season variability was present. The monthly and seasonal variations in storm speed could not be attributed to the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation or North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) alone. However, the speed of ECWS was considerably slower when both El Ni?o and the negative phase of NAO occurred simultaneously. Characteristic patterns in the upper levels of the atmosphere, specifically 300 hPa zonal winds and 500 hPa geopotential heights, were present during periods when ECWS speeds were among the slowest (and separately fastest). For slow storm speed, these patterns also prevailed during months in which El Ni?o and negative NAO phase occurred. These patterns were also present during months with extended runs of high oceanic storm surge. This provides a qualitative link between the atmospheric conditions associated with slow storms and potentially high coastal storm surge impacts. Among the prime consequences of ECWS speed are extended periods of high storm surge, mainly due to slow-moving storms. The sustained high tidal levels often lead to substantial damage caused by coastal flooding, overwash, and beach erosion.     

Numerical storm surge model for India and Pakistan

The northeastern sector of the Arabian Sea, which covers the Gujarat coast of India and western coast of Pakistan, is a region vulnerable to extreme sea levels associated with tropical cyclones (TCs). Although the frequency of tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea is not high, the coastal regions of India and Pakistan suffer in terms of loss of life and property caused by the surges. In view of this a location-specific fine resolution model is developed for the Gujarat coast of India and adjoining Pakistan coast. The east–west and north–south grid distance is about 3.0 km. Using this model, numerical experiments are carried out to simulate the surges generated by 1999 and 2001 cyclones which struck the Pakistan coast. The model computed surges are in agreement with the available observational estimates.     

Estuarine Ecosystem Response Captured Using a Synoptic Climatology

Estuarine and coastal ecosystems respond strongly to proximate climate forcing. In this study, we present a regional, synoptic climatology as an approach to classify weather patterns that generate interannual variability in coastal and estuarine ecosystems. Synoptic climatology is a method that classifies sea level pressure data into distinct patterns representing common weather features for a specified region. A synoptic climatology was developed for the eastern United States and used to quantify surface conditions affecting Chesapeake Bay during wet and dry years. In a synthesis analysis, several mechanisms were identified that explained the link between weather patterns and ecosystem structure, principal among them is the delivery of freshwater to the Bay during spring. Wet and dry years were characterized by shifts in biogeography of the Chesapeake Bay. The shifts resulted from habitat changes and trophic interactions and included the timing and magnitude of the spring phytoplankton bloom, the distribution/abundance of mesozooplankton and gelatinous zooplankton, and juvenile indices of fish. Synoptic climatology resolved regional weather variability at a spatial scale not strongly controlled by larger-scale climate indices and explained ecosystem responses in Chesapeake Bay.