1990s以来气候变化和人类活动对洪湖流域径流影响的定量辨识

为针对性地提出洪湖流域水资源适应与应对气候变化和人类活动影响的措施,保护洪湖流域生态资源,促进其可持续发展,采取分布式水文模型SWAT定量辨识了1990s流域城镇快速发展以来气候变化和人类活动对洪湖流域地表径流的影响程度.结果表明:近20年来,人类活动是洪湖流域地表径流减少的主要原因,其影响量占径流减少量的63.72%,气候变化的影响占36.28%.但不同阶段人类活动与气候变化对流域径流影响的程度不同,1990s气候变化对流域径流的影响量高于人类活动,2000s气候变化对流域径流的影响量低于人类活动,近20年来的水土保持措施已经发挥了较好的径流调节和保水效益.     

Effects of landuse change on surface runoff and sediment yield at different watershed scales on the Loess Plateau

Erosion and sediment yield from large and small watersheds exhibit different laws. Variations in surface runoff and sediment yield because of landuse change in four watersheds of different scales from 1 km2 to 73 km2 were analyzed. Due to reforestation and farmland terracing, surface runoff and sediment yield reduced by 20-100% and 10-100% respectively. Reductions in surface runoff were differed significantly under different precipitation regimes. For the large watershed (73 km2) landuse change had similar effects on surface runoff regardless of changing of precipitation. For the small watershed (1 km2) landuse change had fewer effects on surface runoff under high precipitation. The relative changes of sediment yield in the four watersheds under reforestation and farmland terracing decreased as precipitation increased from 350 mm to 650 mm, then increased as precipitation increased from 650 mm to 870 mm. Where initial forest coverage rate was below 45%, sediment yield decreased dramatically as forest coverage rate increased. Watershed management with aiming at reducing both surface runoff and sediment yield should be conducted both on sloping surfaces and in channels in large watersheds.     

Modelling the impacts of subsurface drainage on surface runoff and sediment yield in the Le Sueur Watershed,Minnesota, USA

Abstract

Tile drainage influences infiltration and surface runoff and is thus an important factor in the erosion process. Tile drainage reduces surface runoff, but questions abound on its influence on sediment transport through its dense network and into the stream network. The impact of subsurface tiling on upland erosion rates in the Le Sueur River watershed, USA, was assessed using the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model. Six different scenarios of tile drainage with varying drainage coefficient and management type (no till and autumn mulch-till) were evaluated. The mean annual surface runoff depth, soil loss rate and sediment delivery ratio (SDR) for croplands, based on a 30-year simulation for the watershed with untiled autumn mulch-till (Scenario 1), were estimated to be 83.5 mm, 0.27 kg/m² and 86.7%, respectively; on no-till management systems (Scenario 4), the respective results were 72.3 mm, 0.06 kg/m² and 88.2%. Tile drains reduced surface runoff, soil loss and SDR estimates for Scenario 1 by, on average, 14.5, 8.1 and 7.9%, respectively; and for Scenario 4 by an estimated 31.5, 22.1 and 20.2%, respectively. The impact of tile drains on surface runoff, soil loss and SDR was greater under the no-till management system than under the autumn mulch-till management system. Comparison of WEPP outputs with those of the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) showed differences between the two methods.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Maalim, F.K. and Melesse. A.M., 2013. Modelling impacts of subsurface drainage on surface runoff and sediment yield in the Le Sueur Watershed in Minnesota, USA. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (3), 570–586.     

Simulating the impacts of climate variation and land-cover changes on basin hydrology: A case study of the Suomo basin

1 Motivation In the summer of 1998, areas along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River suffered a damag- ing flood. Causes of the flooding became a hot topic on mass media after the disaster. Deforestation on the upstream areas was widely blamed as the major reason for the flooding. Some scientists, however, disproved the point of view. They believed that the impact of land use and land cover changes (LUCC) was over- stated[1]. Actually, the controversy over forest hydrol- ogy h…     

Assessing and regulating the impacts of climate change on water resources in the Heihe watershed on the Loess Plateau of China

Climate change can cause considerable changes in water resources and assessing the potential impacts can provide important information for regional sustainable development. The objectives were to evaluate the possible impacts of climate change during 2010-2039 on water resources (runoff, soil water content, and evapotranspiration) in the Heihe watershed on the Loess Plateau of China and to further explore adaptive measures to cope with the changes. Projections of four climate models (CCSR/NIES, CGCM2, CSIRO...     

Effects of historical land use on sediment yield from a lacustrine watershed in central Chile

Sediment yield in the San Pedro Lake watershed, inferred from sedimentation in the lake, can be related to land use changes shown on aerial photographs taken during the period 1943–1994. In this watershed, which covers 4·5 km² of mountainous terrain in San Pedro County, central Chile, the area of native forest species decreased from 70 per cent in 1943 to 13 per cent in 1994. During this same period, the area of pine plantations increased from 4 to 46 per cent. To study effects of these changes, we took a core from the centre of the lake and estimated sedimentation rates by ²¹⁰Pb dating, which we checked with ¹³⁷Cs and pine pollen. The results show that sedimentation rate ranged from 5 mg cm⁻² a⁻¹ in the late 1800s to 60 mg cm⁻² a⁻¹ in the late 1960s. These rates, together with assumptions about the production and delivery of the sediment, give corresponding figures for sediment yields with maximum values close to 1 t ha⁻¹ a⁻¹. Sediment yield between 1955 and 1994 closely tracks the total land use change that can be detected, irrespective of land use type, on sets of aerial photographs taken four to 18 years apart. However, this measure of land use change, while convenient and successful as a predictor of historical erosion, may be unreliable because it probably excludes many changes that occurred in long intervals between successive photographs. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of climate change on sediment yield for Naran watershed,Pakistan

In this paper, the site-specific impact of climate change on sediment yield has been assessed for the Naran watershed, Pakistan. Observed data has been gathered for period 1961–2010 and HaDCM3 GCM predictors of SRES scenarios A2 and B2 have been downloaded. Future precipitation and temperature time series have been statistically downscaled for time horizon 2011–2040 and 2041–2070. Downscaled data show both increasing and decreasing changes with respect to the observation. Potential sediment yield for future related to climate change has been simulated. The results show that the both snowy and monsoon seasonal stream discharges are expected to increase. This will lead to increase in annual sus-pended sediment yields. Percentage-wise, a less discharge and more sediment yield are expected during the early summer. The study concluded that the climate change and variability are influencing the watershed, and suspended sediment yield is likely to increase in the future.     

Attribution of runoff change in the alpine basin: a case study of the Heihe Upstream Basin,China

Quantifying the relative contributions of different factors to runoff change is helpful for basin management, especially in the context of climate change and anthropogenic activities. The effect of snow change on runoff is seldom evaluated. We attribute the runoff change in the Heihe Upstream Basin (HUB), an alpine basin in China, using two approaches: a snowmelt-based water balance model and the Budyko framework. Results from these approaches show good consistency. Precipitation accounts for 58% of the increasing runoff. The contribution of land-cover change seems unremarkable for the HUB as a whole, where land-cover change has a major effect on runoff in each sub-basin, but its positive effect on increasing runoff in sub-basins 1 and 3 is offset by the negative effect in sub-basin 2. Snow change plays an essential role in each sub-basin, with a contribution rate of around 30%. The impact of potential evapotranspiration is almost negligible.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis

ASSOCIATE EDITOR S. Huang     

Flows and sediment dynamics in the Ganga River under present and future climate scenarios

Identification of factors controlling sediment dynamics under natural flow regimes can establish a baseline for quantifying effects of present day hydrological alteration and future climate change on sediment delivery and associated flooding. The process-based INCA-Sediment model was used to simulate Ganga River sediment transport under baseline conditions and to quantify possible future changes using three contrasting climate scenarios. Construction of barrages and canals has significantly altered natural flow regimes, with profound consequences for sediment transport. Projected increases in future monsoonal precipitation will lead to higher peak flows, increasing flood frequency and greater water availability. Increased groundwater recharge during monsoon periods and greater rates of evaporation due to increased temperature complicate projections of water availability in non-monsoon periods. Rainfall and land surface interaction in high-relief areas drive uncertainties in Upper Ganga sediment loads. However, higher monsoonal peak flows will increase erosion and sediment delivery in western and lower reaches.     

Prediction of climate change effects on the runoff regime of a forested catchment in northern Iran

ABSTRACT

The southern coast of the Caspian Sea in northern Iran is bordered by a mountain range with forested catchments which are susceptible to droughts and floods. This paper examines possible changes to runoff patterns from one of these catchments in response to climate change scenarios. The HEC-HMS rainfall–runoff model was used with downscaled future rainfall and temperature data from 13 global circulation models, and meteorological and hydrometrical data from the Casilian (or “Kassilian”) Catchment. Annual and seasonal predictions of runoff change for three future emissions scenarios were obtained, which suggest significantly higher spring rainfall with increased risk of flooding and significantly lower summer rainfall leading to a higher probability of drought. Flash floods arising from extreme rainfall may become more frequent, occurring at any time of year. These findings indicate a need for strategic planning of water resource management and mitigation measures for increasing flood hazards.

EDITOR M.C. Acreman ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned     

Empirical and conceptual modelling of the suspended sediment dynamics in a large tropical African river: the Upper Niger river basin

A 7-year sediment transport monitoring on the Upper Niger rivers was used to study the relationship between suspended sediment concentration and river discharge. During annual floods, these relationships show positive hysteresis. This paper presents the results of two models that estimate the time evolution of suspended sediment concentration using water discharge data only. The first model is based on a statistical approach using two relationships, one for the rising stage period of the flood and one for the recession period of the annual flood; the second model is a lumped conceptual one; it supposes that the sediment flux observed in the river comes from two different sources of sediment and that these two sources may be regarded as two different reservoirs. The erosion of the first reservoir represents hillslope erosion observed during the runoff season. Sediment supply from this ‘reservoir’ is limited in time because depletion occurs during the runoff season. The second reservoir is unlimited in time and quantity and its erosion represents contributions coming from bank erosion and mobilisation of deposits in the channel network.

Both of the models are compared with a simple rating curve based model. The model results show that the conceptual model has the highest efficiency to reproduce from weekly discharge only the time evolution of weekly suspended sediment concentrations, the time evolution of weekly sediment fluxes, and the global annual sediment yields.     

Evaluating the effect of land use changes on soil erosion and sediment yield using a grid‐based distributed modelling approach

Processes of soil erosion and sediment transport are strongly influenced by land use changes so the modelling of land use changes is important with respect to the simulation of soil degradation and its on‐site and off‐site consequences. The reliability of simulation results from erosion models is circumscribed by considerable spatial variation in many parameters. However, most of the currently widely used erosion models at the mesoscale are semidistributed, which leads to difficulties in incorporating a high degree of spatial information, especially land use information, so that the effects of land use changes on soil erosion have hitherto not been investigated in detail using these models. In this article, a grid‐based distributed erosion and sediment transport model is introduced, which simulates the spatial pattern of erosion and deposition rates and sediment transport processes in river channels. In this model, land use affects soil erosion through altering soil loss and influencing sediment delivery. Simulated soil erosion for events recorded in 1989 and 1996 in the Lushi basin in China was analyzed by comparing it with historical land use maps. The results indicated that even relatively minor land use changes had a significant effect on regional soil erosion rates and sediment transport to rivers. The average erosion rate increased from 1989 to 1996, after the transformation of forest to farmland. The results of the study suggest that the proposed soil erosion model can be applied in similar river basins. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Water and sediment evolution in areas with high and coarse sediment yield of the Loess Plateau

In the past few years, the amount of sediment entering the Yellow River decreased significantly in areas with high and coarse sediment yield of the Loess Plateau. Some researchers considered that it was owing to the soil and water conservation project, while others believed that it was caused by the low precipitation. The observation data showed -2 that the ultimate sod erosion modulus m 1960s could reach 150,000 t km . However some experts preferred to believe that the ultimate soil erosion modulus in 1960s was wrong due to some uncertain mistakes. This paper quantitatively analyzed the spatial-temporal evolution pattern of sediment yield in areas with high and coarse sediment yield of the Loess Plateau over the past 50 years, by simulating the precipitation-runoff and soil erosion in 12 sample years with the digital watershed model. Some preliminary conclusions have been drawn as following： since the 1960s and 1970s, the rainstorm center had moved southward and the intensity of rainfall center became weaker and spread into dispersed rainfall distribution in areas with high and coarse sediment yield; the decrease of the amount of sediment entering the Yellow River was caused by the changes of rainfall type in recent years; the rainstorm of 1967 was concentrated in the re~ion nearby ＂Shenmu-Fugu＂ in Shaanxi Province, and the annual maximum transport modulus （150,000 t km-2 ） measured in Bullpen Ditch of the left bank tributary between ＂Shenmu＂ and ＂Fugu＂ in 1967 is reasonable.     

Effects of precipitation and landuse on runoff during the past 50 years in a typical watershed in the Loess Plateau, China

In the past century, great progress has been made worldwide in our understanding of forest-water relationship. The successful forestation programs implemented in China-which have improved the ecological environmental conditions-have gained the attention of many researchers and highlighted the relationship between forestation and water yields. The arid and semi-arid Loess Plateau has received attention from water engineers and eco-hydrological researchers in China because of a shortage in water resources. We selected one of the oldest stations conducting soil and water conservation experiments, the Xifeng soil and water conservation station, and chose the Nanxiaohe catchment and its paired catchments （Yangjiagou catchment and Dongzhuanggou catchment） as our research areas. Trends in precipitation, air temperature, streamflow over the past 50 years, and the effect of changing land use on streamflow were analyzed. The Mann-Kendall test showed that precipitation had a negative trend （downward trend）, whereas air temperature showed a positive trend （upward trend） from the past to present in the Nanxiaohe catchment. However, the trends seen in precipitation, air temperature did not contain any ＂jumping points.＂ The paired catchment approach is used to detect the effects of land cover change on hydrology in the Yangjiagou and the contrast catchment, i.e., Dongzhuanggou catchment in our study. The results showed a large change in land use in the Yangjiagou catchment from 1954 to 2008. An increase in forested land （from 0% to 40.08% from 1954 to 2008） and a reduction of bare land （from 51.26% to 5.50% from 1954 to 2008） accounted for a large part of the change in land use. However, the land use changed little in the contrast catchment. The comparison of streamfiow in the paired catchments showed that forestation reduced streamflow by 49.63% （or 6.5 mm） each year.     

Effects of check dams on runoff and sediment load in a semi-arid river basin of the Yellow River

Check dam has become an efficient measure to control sediment transport and soil erosion in the gully areas. It plays an important role in soil erosion control and agricultural production in the Loess Plateau. Due to construction of numerous check dams, it is necessary to assess the impact of check dams on runoff and sediment load at basin scale. This study applied the SWAT model to simulate monthly runoff and sediment load in the Huangfuchuan basin in the middle reaches of the Yellow River. Twenty key check dams are coupled to the SWAT model simulation in the calibration (1978–1984) and validation period (1985–1989). The determination coefficient (R ²) and the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient (NS) were 0.94 and 0.83 for runoff, and 0.82 and 0.81 for sediment load in the calibration period, respectively. During the validation period, the R ² and NS were 0.93 and 0.80 for runoff, and 0.90 and 0.83 for sediment load respectively. The results showed that the model simulation was acceptable. Subsequently, the calibrated model was used to examine the effect of check dams on runoff and sediment load between 1990 and 2012. It showed that the increasing check dams contributed 24.8 and 27.7% to the decrease of annual runoff and sediment load during the period of 1990–1999, whereas it reached up to 65.2% for runoff decline and 78.3% for sediment load reduction within 2000–2012. Overall, this study illustrated a case study of the dominant role of check dams on variation of runoff and sediment load in the Huangfuchuan basin.     

Evaluation and modeling of runoff and sediment yield for different land covers under simulated rain in a semiarid region of Brazil

This paper quantifies the runoff and sediment yield for four different land covers in a semiarid region of Brazil. The WESP model, a distributed, event-oriented runoff-erosion model, was applied and its physical parameters, N_s and K_R, were adjusted based on observed runoff and sediment yield data using simulated rainfall with an average intensity of 53 mm h^-1. The sediment yield obtained was 53.02 kg ha^-1 (caatinga vegetation), 231.96 kg ha^-1 (bare soil), 309.75 kg ha^-1 (beans), and 847.38 kg ha^-1(corn). The results showed that caatinga cover yields the lowest erosion and runoff when compared to the other treatments. The results also show that the sediment yield and runoff values simulated with N_s, K_I, and K_R parameters were well calibrated, within acceptable deviations. The caatinga vegetation was more effective in protecting the soil, when compared to the other types of coverage. The beans and corn covers had the highest values of runoff and sediment yield, even higher than those observed for bare soil.     

Impacts of land-use and climate changes on surface runoff in a tropical forest watershed (Brazil)

ABSTRACT

Surface runoff generation capacity can be modified by land-use and climate changes. Annual runoff volumes have been evaluated in a small watershed of tropical forest (Brazil), using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Firstly, the accuracy of SWAT in runoff predictions has been assessed by default input parameters and improved by automatic calibration, using 20-year observations. Then, the hydrological response under land uses (cropland, pasture and deforested soil) alternative to tropical forest and climate change scenarios has been simulated. SWAT application has showed that, if forest was replaced by crops or pasture, the watershed’s hydrological response would not significantly be affected. Conversely, a complete deforestation would slightly increase its runoff generation capacity. Under forecasted climate scenarios, the runoff generation capacity of the watershed will tend to decrease and will not be noticeably different among the representative concentration pathways. Pasture and bare soil will give the lowest and highest runoff coefficients, respectively.     

Response of snow processes to climate change: spatial variability in a small basin in the Spanish Pyrenees

In this study, the Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform was used to create an alpine snow model including wind redistribution of snow and energy balance snowmelt to simulate the snowpack over the period 1996–2009 in a small (33 ha) snow‐dominated basin in the Spanish Pyrenees. The basin was divided into three hydrological response units (HRUs), based on contrasting physiographic and aerodynamic characteristics. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to calculate the snow water equivalent regime for various combinations of temperature and precipitation that differed from observed conditions. The results show that there was large inter‐annual variability in the snowpack in this region of the Pyrenees because of its marked sensitivity to climatic conditions. Although the basin is small and quite homogeneous, snowpack seasonality and inter‐annual evolution of the snowpack varied in each HRU. Snow accumulation change in relation to temperature change was approximately 20% for every 1 °C, and the duration of the snowpack was reduced by 20–30 days per °C. Melting rates decreased with increased temperature, and wind redistribution of snow was higher with decreased temperature. The magnitude and sign of changes in precipitation may markedly affect the response of the snowpack to changes in temperature. There was a non‐linear response of snow to individual and combined changes in temperature and precipitation, with respect to both the magnitude and sign of the change. This was a consequence of the complex interactions among climate, topography and blowing snow in the study basin. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of rock fragment size and cover on overland flow hydraulics,local turbulence and sediment yield on an erodible soil surface

The interactions between overland flow hydraulics and sediment yield were studied in flume experiments on erodible soil surfaces covered by rock fragments. The high erodibility of a non-cohesive fine sediment (D₅₀ + 0·09mm) permitted the effects of local turbulence and scour on sediment yield to be examined. Overland flow hydraulics and sediment yield were compared for experiments with pebble (D₅₀ + 1·5cm) and cobble (D₅₀ + 8·6cm) rock fragment covers. Cover percentages range from 0 to 99 per cent. Rock fragment size strongly affects the relations between flow hydraulics and rock fragment cover. For pebbles spatially-averaged hydraulic parameters (flow velocity, flow depth, effective flow width, unit discharge, total shear stress, Darcy-Weisbach friction factor, percentage grain friction and grain shear stress) vary most rapidly within cover percentages at low covers (power functions). In contrast, for cobbles these parameters vary most rapidly within cover percentages at high covers (exponential functions). As the type of the function that describes the relation between flow hydraulics and cover percentage can be deduced from the ratio of rock fragment height to flow depth, the continuity equation can be employed to determine the actual coefficients of the functions, provided the regression of one hydraulic parameter (e.g. flow velocity) with cover percentage is known and a good estimate exists for two values of another hydraulic variable for a low and a high cover percentage. The variation of sediment yield with cover percentage is also strongly dependent on rock fragment size, but neither the convex-upward relation for pebbles, nor the positive relation for cobbles can be solely attributed to the spatially averaged hydraulics of sheet-flow. Rock fragments induce local turbulence that leads to scour hole development on the stoss side of the rock fragments while deposition commonly occurs in the wake. This local scour and deposition substantially affects sediment yield. However, scour dimensions cannot be predicted by spatially averaged flow hydraulics. An adjustment of existing scour formulas that predict scour around bridge piers is suggested. Sediment yield from non-cohesive soils might then be estimated by a combination of sediment transport and scour formulas.     

Modeling the impacts of drying trend scenarios on land systems in northern China using an integrated SD and CA model

Climate-induced drought has exerted obvious impacts on land systems in northern China. Although recent reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have suggested a high possibility of climate-induced drought in northern China, the potential impacts of such drying trends on land systems are still unclear. Land use models are powerful tools for assessing the impacts of future climate change. In this study, we first developed a land use scenario dynamic model (iLUSD) by integrating system dynamics and cellular automata. Then, we designed three drying trend scenarios (reversed drying trend, gradual drying trend, and acceleration of drying trend) for the next 25 years based on the IPCC emission scenarios and considering regional climatic predictions in northern China. Finally, the impacts of drying trend scenarios on the land system were simulated and compared. An accuracy assessment with historic data covering 2000 to 2005 indicated that the developed model is competent and reliable for understanding complex changes in the land use system. The results showed that water resources varied from 441.64 to 330.71 billion m³ among different drying trend scenarios, suggesting that future drying trends will have a significant influence on water resource and socioeconomic development. Under the pressures of climate change, water scarcity, and socioeconomic development, the ecotone (i.e., transition zone between cropping area and nomadic area) in northern China will become increasingly vulnerable and hotspots for land-use change. Urban land and grassland would have the most prominent response to the drying trends. Urban land will expand around major metropolitan areas and the conflict between urban and cultivated land will become more severe. The results also show that previous ecological control measures adopted by the government in these areas will play an important role in rehabilitating the environment. In order to achieve a sustainable development in northern China, issues need to be addressed such as how to arrange land use structure and patterns rationally, and how to adapt to the pressures of climate change and socioeconomic development together.