Community resilience,natural hazards,and climate change: Is the present a prologue to the future?

ABSTRACT

The nexus of natural hazards, climate change, and community resilience poses both conceptual and methodological challenges. One key consideration is the underlying notion of dynamic change or transformation in the systems that affect community resilience—social systems, natural systems, technological systems—and the degree to which the interdependencies influence who is resilient, to what, where, and to whom. The article examines community resilience from the broad perspective of affluent societies and illustrates the considerable variability in both the temporal and spatial nature of community resilience to natural hazards in the short term, and climate changes in the longer term, especially in more affluent societies. The author finds that, given the rapidity of environmental, social, economic, political, technological, and cultural changes, present circumstances and remedies may not be adequate predictors or precursors of future conditions. She concludes that the challenges associated with community resilience, natural hazards, and climate change require transformational thinking and action if achievements are to be made in terms of significant disaster risk reduction and any semblance of a sustainable future when extreme weather events will be the norm, not the exception.     

Seeking commonalities of community resilience to natural hazards: A cluster analysis approach

ABSTRACT

The aim of the study on which the article is based was to identify groups of communities with similar resilience profiles, using Norwegian municipalities as a case. The authors used a set of socioeconomic and environmental indicators as measures of municipalities’ resilience and performed a cluster analysis to divide the municipalities into groups with similar multivariate resilience signatures. The results revealed six groups of municipalities that, apart from their unique combinations of indicator scores, featured certain spatial patterns, such as an “urban cluster” with urbanized municipalities and a “suburban cluster” with municipalities concentrated around major cities. The authors conclude that municipalities in each of the groups shared aspects that made them either more or less resilient to natural hazards, which could make them potential targets for shared interventions. Additionally, the authors conclude that clustering can be used to identify municipalities with similar resilience features and that could benefit from networking and sharing operational planning as a way to improve their respective communities' resilience to natural hazards.     

农户生计对气候变化的恢复力研究综述

随着气候变化对自然生态环境和社会经济可持续发展影响的不断加剧,恢复力逐渐成为应对气候变化的一种新理念。首先梳理了不同领域恢复力概念,进而阐述了农户生计对气候变化的恢复力的科学内涵及研究框架。然后重点分析了农户生计对气候变化的恢复力在资本、政府机构、自组织能力和学习能力四方面的具体表现。最后从定性和定量两方面归纳了生计恢复力的度量方法。定性评价方法主要包括农户问卷调查、关键线人访谈、重点小组讨论、生计轨迹方法和案例分析等,定量评价方法包括指标替代法、结构动力学分析法、贝叶斯网络模型法、基准线对比法等。未来研究应注重完善农户生计对气候变化的恢复力评价方法、加强农户生计对气候变化的恢复力动态研究并且开展区域间农户生计对气候变化的恢复力对比研究。     

Community collaboration and climate change research in the Canadian Arctic

Research on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, particularly projects aiming to contribute to practical adaptation initiatives, requires active involvement and collaboration with community members and local, regional and national organizations that use this research for policy-making. Arctic communities are already experiencing and adapting to environmental and socio-cultural changes, and researchers have a practical and ethical responsibility to engage with communities that are the focus of the research. This paper draws on the experiences of researchers working with communities across the Canadian Arctic, together with the expertise of Inuit organizations, Northern research institutes and community partners, to outline key considerations for effectively engaging Arctic communities in collaborative research. These considerations include: initiating early and ongoing communication with communities, and regional and national contacts; involving communities in research design and development; facilitating opportunities for local employment; and disseminating research findings. Examples of each consideration are drawn from climate change research conducted with communities in the Canadian Arctic.     

中国南方调整水稻种植格局——一种水稻生产预先适应气候变化的选择(英文)

Rice planted in southern China accounts for 94% of the total in sown acreage and 88% of the total in production, which matters a lot to Chinese food security. However, due to the prolonged conflict between water availability and rice growth in spatial/temporal distribu-tion, rice production suffers from seasonal drought at acreage of 16%-22%, which compro-mises food production capacity and food security. Focusing on the spatial distribution of seasonal drought with rice and the practices to adapt to it, and based on an analysis of bal-anced water supply for and demand by rice at a growing season scale during 1981-2030, this paper assesses the changing seasonal drought in the process of rice production under the changing climate in the future, and identifies general rice re-cultivation options for climate change adaptation. Some conclusions can be drawn as follows. (1) Rice suggests a decline in seasonal drought, with early season rice (early rice hereafter) by 12,500 km2, middle season rice (middle rice) by 80,000 km2, and in particular late season rice (late rice) by 25,000 km2, which accounts for almost 20% of its cultivated acreage. It is indicated that due to climate change, seasonal drought in major rice producing areas tends to alleviate in general, late season rice in particular. (2) Future climate change brings about a significant impact on the spatial/temporal distribution of water resources in rice producing areas in China. Based on ’pre-designed’ adaptation actions for rice-re-cultivation, the rice cultivation pattern undergoes a significant alteration between 1981-2000 and 2001-2030. In eastern Guizhou and western Hunan, the pattern of single early plus single dry farming is changed into double cropping. In eastern Hunan, the pattern of dry cropping is changed into single early plus single dry farming. In northern Anhui, the pattern of dry farming cropping is changed into middle rice. All this is aimed at a potential adequate availability of water for rice production in the future. (3) Rice re-cultivation patterns developed in this paper help re-balance water demand and supply for rice growth using the spatial analysis tool to adapt rice growth to the changing water avail-ability from spatial perspective, and come up with rice producer-friendly re-cultivation options in response to climate change.     

Trial by Fire: natural hazards,mixed-methods and cultural research

This paper considers the issues of research ‘relevance’ and ‘use’ to reflect upon a cultural geography research project on bushfire that did not begin with any specific aim of being useful to policy makers but which has garnered considerable and ongoing interest from a broad audience. It provides an example of how the integration of quantitative and qualitative research methods and data can enhance research into cultural aspects of natural hazards whilst simultaneously playing a key role in ensuring that the research results are of interest to a wide range of groups. Using a mixed-methods research approach was found to provide insight into complex factors that influence attitudes and actions towards bushfire amongst diverse landholders in rural–urban interface areas in south-east Australia. We argue that mixed-methods research is a powerful tool in building and enhancing a cultural geography that has policy relevance, retains analytical depth, and is acceptable to risk managers. The ability of cultural geography through mixed-methods research to illuminate how socio-cultural processes are central to environmental attitudes and preparedness behaviour has direct relevance to recent international discussions of how to manage the vulnerability of the growing number of people living in bushfire-prone rural–urban interface areas.     

Environmental hazards and natural disasters

How can the apparently growing frequency and cost of environmental hazards be explained? Drawing on a range of examples, and especially the Canterbury earthquakes, it is argued that the creation of knowledge about these events depends on the interplay of lived and historical experience with scientific awareness. But often the vulnerability of places to particular events is obscured by popular use of the terms ‘natural hazard’ or ‘natural disaster’, as if human behaviour is absolved from any responsibility. It is shown how such thinking often increases the extent of the hazard, so that although we do not cause earthquakes, floods and bushfires, we are implicated and complicit in the outcomes.     

Geomorphology, natural hazards, vulnerability and prevention of natural disasters in developing countries

The significance of the prevention of natural disasters is made evident by the commemoration of the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR). This paper focuses on the role of geomorphology in the prevention of natural disasters in developing countries, where their impact has devastating consequences. Concepts such as natural hazards, natural disasters and vulnerability have a broad range of definitions; however, the most significant elements are associated with the vulnerability concept. The latter is further explored and considered as a key factor in understanding the occurrence of natural disasters, and consequently, in developing and applying adequate strategies for prevention. Terms such as natural and human vulnerabilities are introduce and explained as target aspects to be taken into account in the reduction of vulnerability and for prevention and mitigation of natural disasters. The importance of the incorporation not only of geomorphological research, but also of geomorphologists in risk assessment and management programs in the poorest countries is emphasized.     

气候变化情景下中国自然生态系统脆弱性研究

本研究以动态植被模型LPJ 为主要工具,以区域气候模式工具PRECIS 产生的A2、B2和A1B情景气候数据为输入,模拟了未来气候变化下中国自然生态系统的变化状况,应用脆弱性评价模型,评估中国自然生态系统响应未来气候变化的脆弱性。结果表明:未来气候变化情景下中国东部地区脆弱程度呈上升趋势,西部地区呈下降趋势,但总体上,中国自然生态系统的脆弱性格局没有大的变化,仍呈现西高东低、北高南低的特点。受气候变化影响严重的地区是东北和华北地区,而青藏高原区南部和西北干旱区受气候变化影响,脆弱程度明显减轻。气候变化情景下的近期气候变化对我国生态系统的影响不大,但中、远期气候变化对生态系统的负面影响较大,特别是在自然条件相对较好的东部地区,脆弱区面积增加较多。     

Climate change and community resilience in Samoa

Being resilient in the face of climate change seems especially important for island societies, which face the effects of rising temperatures, unpredictable rainfall, changing wind patterns and sea level rise. To date, most studies of adaptation and resilience among Pacific island communities have used indicators and methods rooted in Western science and neo-classical economics. These have been criticized as being locally irrelevant and inadequate to appreciate the dynamic nature and social structures of island communities and their capacity to adapt. This paper challenges the paradigm that defines resilience as a return to equilibrium, by using a non-equilibrium, cultural ecological lens. The non-equilibrium view of resilience sees the social systems of island nations as highly dynamic and undergoing persistent adaptation in the face of changing environmental factors. Field-based research undertaken in eight villages in Samoa found that, through constant exposure to environmental change over extended periods of time, communities have become resilient and are in a position to adapt to future changes. In developing future policy in relation to climate change, Pacific island governments need to develop a more nuanced understanding of islanders’ perceptions and historical actions in the context of both their physical locations and their dynamic socio-cultural systems.     

Biodiversity,land degradation,and climate change: Participatory planning in Romania

This paper considers the role of stakeholder participation in drawing together the three Rio Conventions, exploring how participatory activities to combat desertification in southern Romania can both support and hinder efforts to conserve biodiversity and mitigate the effects of climate change. It suggests that Romania's growing civil society sector has a potentially vital role to play in promoting synergy through participation, and that participatory processes act as an important mechanism for harnessing multiple benefits. The paper argues that participation needs to be further institutionalised within the Romanian context and in doing so, should emphasise empowerment, equity, trust and learning, integrating different knowledge bases to allow the development of sustainable and synergistic environmental solutions.     

Understanding and managing climate change: the UK experience

Climate change has emerged over the last 25 years not just as a physical reality, affecting global and regional climates, but also as a socio-cultural phenomenon – an icon of a globalizing world which is increasingly altering the physical fabric of our planet and at the same time demanding new forms of global governance. The UK, both through its scientific research activity and through its development of climate change policy initiatives, has been at the forefront of this emergence. This review traces some of this history from a UK perspective, with an emphasis on the last 10 years. The relationship between climate change science and policy has become increasingly reflexive, leading to new forms of research and institutional structures. The academic discipline of geography has been rather marginalized from this process.     

Imaging vulnerability: the iconography of climate change

This paper explores the iconography of climate change in contemporary climate action campaigns in the UK. I aim to show how sample images are simultaneously scientific denotations of global warming and cultural connotations of danger and vulnerability. I further demonstrate that while similar images are associated with different agendas and geographical visions, they attach to a shared discourse of vulnerability that has Western (colonial) roots. The paper concludes with an overview of possible ways for climate action campaigns to effectively convey their political messages without recycling colonial visions of the world.     

Sediment supply and climate change: implications for basin stratigraphy

The rate of sediment supply from erosional catchment to depositional basin depends primarily upon climate, relief, catchment slope and lithology. It varies in both time and space. Spatial changes in erosion rates due to variations in lithology are illustrated by contrasting rates of drainage divide migration away from faults of known ages. Time variations in relative sediment supply are extremely complex and vary widely according to the direction and magnitude of climate change. In many parts of the Great Basin and south-western USA, glacial maximum climates were characterized by higher effective moisture and the altitudinal downward spread of woods and forests. Sparse data from alluvial fans indicate reduced sediment supply, despite the increased runoff evident from higher lake levels. The situation in Mediterranean areas is less clear, with rival climatic scenarios for vegetation ecotypes predicting contrasting runoff. In order to test these latter we run Cumulative Seasonal Erosion Potential [CSEP] experiments for present-day and a variety of full-glacial Mediterranean candidate climates. The results indicate the likelihood of enhanced sediment supply and runoff compared to the present day during full-glacial times for a cool wet winter climate and a reduction in sediment supply and runoff for a full-glacial cool dry winter climate. We then explore the consequences of such phase differences in sediment supply, and sea and lake levels for the stratigraphy of sedimentary basins. Highstands and lowstands of sea or lake may be accompanied by greater or lesser sediment and water supply, as determined by the regional climate and the direction of climatic change. Thus marine lowstands are not necessarily periods of great transfer of coarse clastic sediments to shelves and deep water basinal environments. Unsteady sediment supply has greatest implications for alluvial systems, in particular the effect that changing relative supplies of water and sediment have upon river and fan channel incision.     

气候变化、火干扰与生态系统碳循环

 随着全球变暖的日益显著,气候变化及其影响越来越受到广泛关注。火干扰作为森林生态系统碳循环的一个重要组成部分,其干扰过程是对碳的再分配过程,因而对区域乃至全球的碳循环产生重要影响。气候变化、火干扰与生态系统碳循环三者之间存在因果循环关系,正确认识气候变化与火干扰的复杂关系及双向反馈作用,以及火干扰在生态系统碳循环中的作用,这对制定科学合理的火干扰管理策略,提高生态系统管理水平,减少碳排放,促进碳增汇,减缓全球变化速率均有重要意义。从两个方面阐述了气候变化、火干扰与生态系统碳循环之间的交互作用关系：气候变化与火干扰相互影响关系及双向反馈作用,分别从气候变化对火干扰的影响及火干扰对气候变化的影响两个方面阐述了两者之间的相互影响关系;火干扰与森林生态系统碳循环的交互作用,分别从火干扰对森林生态系统碳循环的影响及模型方法在模拟火干扰对森林生态系统碳循环影响中的应用两个方面论述火干扰对森林生态系统碳循环的影响及其定量评价模型方法。目前火干扰直接碳排放的模型方法比较完善,而间接影响碳循环的模型方法并不成熟,许多方法局限于定性描述,因此,应进一步探讨集成实地测量、遥感观测和模型模拟的跨尺度火干扰对碳循环的影响研究,注重尺度的转换问题。最后,提出了气候变暖背景下火干扰管理的路径选择,以及对今后的研究方向进行了展望。     

新疆气候时空变化特征及其趋势(英文)

Temperature and precipitation time series datasets from 1961 to 2005 at 65 meteorological stations were used to reveal the spatial and temporal trends of climate change in Xinjiang, China. Annual and seasonal mean air temperature and total precipitation were analyzed using Mann-Kendall (MK) test, inverse distance weighted (IDW) interpolation, and R/S methods. The results indicate that: (1) both temperature and precipitation increased in the past 45 years, but the increase in temperature is more obvious than that of precipitation; (2) for temperature increase, the higher the latitude and the higher the elevation the faster the increase, though the latitude has greater influence on the increase. Northern Xinjiang shows a faster warming than southern Xinjiang, especially in summer; (3) increase of precipitation occurs mainly in winter in northern Xinjiang and in summer in southern Xinjiang. Ili, which has the most precipitation in Xinjiang, shows a weak increase of precipitation; (4) although both temperature and precipitation increased in general, the increase is different inside Xinjiang; (5) Hurst index (H) analysis indicates that climate change will continue the current trends.     

Recurring natural fire hazards : a case study of the Blue Mountains,Wew South Wales,Australia

Many regions of the world have climatic and vegetation regimes conducive to wildfires which damage urban property, but south eastern Australia is foremost in terms of such hazards. The Blue Mountains Region near Sydney has experienced 25 fire seasons since 1875 in 11 of which damage occurred to urban property. On four occasions since 1951 a single fire run has destroyed more than 50 dwellings. While fire cycles themselves are unpredictable, degree of fuel accumulation, annual and monthly rainfall and daily weather charts can signal various degrees of hazard and need for protective action to well informed householders. Knowledge of fire history in fire-prone regions is essential not only for professional firefighters but for all households.     

全球气候变化对黄河流域天然径流量影响的情景分析

本文从干旱指数蒸发率函数出发,以HadCM3 GCM对降水和温度的模拟结果为基础,在IPCC不同发展情景下,分析了未来近100年内黄河流域天然径流量的变化趋势。研究结果表明,在不同气候变化情景下,多年平均年径流量的变化随着区域的不同而有显著差异,其变化幅度在-48.0%²03.0%之间。全球气候变化引起的多年平均天然径流量的变化从东向西逐渐减小。就黄河流域而言,2006²035年、2036²065年、2066²095年A2情景下（人口快速增长、经济发展缓慢）多年平均天然径流量的变化量分别为5.0%、11.7%、8.1%,B2情景下（强调社会技术创新）相应的变化分别为7.2%、-3.1%、2.6%。