典型季风海洋型冰川流域水循环过程变化对气候变暖的响应(英文)

Studying the response to warming of hydrological systems in China’s temperate glacier region is essential in order to provide information required for sustainable development.The results indicated the warming climate has had an impact on the hydrological cycle.As the glacier area subject to melting has increased and the ablation season has become longer,the contribution of meltwater to annual river discharge has increased.The earlier onset of ablation at higher elevation glaciers has resulted in the period of minimum discharge occurring earlier in the year.Seasonal runoff variations are dominated by snow and glacier melt,and an increase of meltwater has resulted in changes of the annual water cycle in the Lijiang Basin and Hailuogou Basin.The increase amplitude of runoff in the downstream region of the glacial area is much stronger than that of precipitation,resulting from the prominent increase of meltwater from glacier region in two basins.Continued observations in the glacierized basins should be undertaken in order to monitor changes,to reveal the relationships between climate,glaciers,hydrology and water supplies,and to assist in maintaining sustainable regional development.     

DISCHARGE AND SEDIMENT-LOAD CHARACTERISTICS OF THE HILDA ROCK-GLACIER STREAM,CANADIAN ROCKY MOUNTAINS,ALBERTA

Water discharge and sediment load characteristics of the Hilda rock-glacier stream are described for portions of the 1985 and 1986 ablation seasons. Covering an area of 1.5 km², the Hilda rock glacier yields a relatively consistent flow, generally low in suspended sediments and relatively high in total dissolved solids during the ablation season. The seasonal hydrograph shows decreasing discharge and suspended sediment load and increasing dissolved loads through the ablation season as snowmelt water sources are depleted. Superimposed on this is a diurnal hydrograph showing that daily peaks in discharge lag several hours behind daily temperature maxima. Rain events produce hydrograph anomalies and act to flush sediment, elevating suspended loads, while diluting dissolved loads. These data suggest that rock-glacier hydrological systems are more responsive to short-term and transient meteorological conditions than previously suggested in the literature. Nonetheless, the data indicate that the Hilda rock glacier is more conservative in both water and sediment yield than glacier systems of comparable size and in the same environment.     

FACTORS INFLUENCING THE VARIABILITY OF MIDWINTER SNOW-DEPTH DECREASE IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES

Meltwater from snow provides an important source of fresh water for agriculture, domestic use, and hydroelectric power in many regions of the world. In the winter and early spring, however, rapid ablation of the snowpack can lead to environmental hazards such as flooding.

Most snowmelt research has relied on measured data, which have limited the spatial and temporal resolution of the studies. Generally, these studies have been conducted at single locations over periods of a few days to a few weeks. This project investigates snowdepth changes on a more expansive scale by using a one-dimensional mass- and energy-balance model (SNTHERM) to compute the convective and radiative fluxes associated with large snow-depth change events. Midwinter snow-depth changes and the variability in snow-depth changes are evaluated for a 25-year time period over the northern Great Plains region of the United States during February.

Statistical analyses indicate that variations in sensible heat flux have the greatest influence on midwinter variability of snow-depth changes. This is shown by the consistently strong relationship between modeled sensible heat-flux values and changes in snow depth over the entire study period and at nearly every station. Mean daily temperature followed by mean daily dew-point temperature show the next strongest statistical relationships with snow-cover ablation. Radiative fluxes and net solar radiation in particular, have low correlations with changes in snow depth and are therefore found to have little impact on snow-depth change variability during the month of February. Although net solar radiation is not highly correlated with the variability of decreases in depth, its energy input is nevertheless an important source of energy for ablation processes. [Key words: snow melt, modeling, Great Plains.]     

天山东段冰雪消融与产汇流水文过程——以乌鲁木齐河源区为例

应用天山北坡乌鲁木齐河源区1 号冰川、空冰斗和总控3 个水文断面2011 年5-9 月每10min 实测水位数据、15 min 的气温、降水数据、1 号冰川消融及空冰斗区积雪观测数据,采用排除和不排除降水对冰雪消融产流影响的研究方法,系统分析了不同冰川覆盖率下水文断面冰雪消融特征及产汇流过程。结果表明：（1） 乌鲁木齐河源区3 个水文断面流量昼夜差异明显,1 号冰川水文断面白天径流大于夜晚径流,空冰斗和总控断面则相反;3 个断面流量亦具有显著日变化过程,且流量峰值大小和到来的时间存在差异。（2） 在排除与不排除降水两种天气影响下,1 号冰川最大流量滞后最高气温分别为1~3 h 和0~1 h;空冰斗断面分别为10~16 h和13 h,总控断面分别为5~11 h 和6~7 h,反映了1 号冰川从消融产流到汇流时间最短,空冰斗积雪消融产流时间最长,总控位于二者之间,同时亦反映伴随降水过程冰雪融水汇流迅速,即从产流到汇流时间有一定的缩短。（3） 影响3 个水文断面流量变化的因素不同,冰川区热量条件是影响1 号冰川水文断面的关键,1 号冰川在过去20 余年间,冰内、冰下排水道变得更为单一,对融水的阻滞和贮存作用弱化,融水汇流过程变得更为迅速。（4） 冰川覆盖山区流域水文断面在冰川消融期的流量过程线变化及最大流量与最高气温时滞变化规律在一定程度上对于认识冰川覆盖率有差异背景下的流域下垫面水系演化、冰雪消融过程及水文断面径流补给具有重要的指示意义。     

CIRCULATION PATTERNS AND TEMPERATURE FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER ON THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT

Weekly snow cover areas, derived from the NOAA/NESS Northern Hemisphere Digitized Snow and Ice Cover Data Base, were correlated with weekly temperature anomalies across the United States and with weekly 700-mb geopotential heights over the North American sector. The correlations were computed for snow cover across the entire North American continent as well as the western and eastern United States for the winters 1966–67 through 1979–80. Extensive snow cover is associated with negative temperature anomalies across most of the continental United States. The strongest relationship occurs along the eastern flank of the Rocky Mountains from the Canadian border to the central Great Plains and reflects the southward movement of cold arctic air masses toward the Gulf of Mexico. An anomalous trough over the western part of North America is responsible for extensive snow cover in the winter. The surface storm track is displaced southward during winters with heavy snow cover, with cyclones occurring more frequently in the southern Plains and southeastern United States. Moist Gulf of Mexico air advected northward by the southerly flow aloft is an important prerequisite condition for the occurrence of extensive snow cover in the eastern United States during the first half of winter.     

多源降水数据的小流域水文模拟效用评估

小流域是研究小微尺度水文水资源系统演变规律的理想对象,是用于计算河流产水产沙 的最小单元,是水文及水土流失研究与管理的最佳地域尺度。通过遥感技术,气候模式获得降水 数据,并驱动分布式水文模型,模拟和预测水文过程,是流域水文水资源研究的必然趋势。以 NO? AA-CPC-US 降水作为参照,在美国不同地区的 9 个小流域,评估卫星降水产品 PERSIANN,PERSI? ANN-CDR,TRMM-3B42V7,GPM-IMERG,雷达降水 StageIV 以及气候模式 ERA5 降水产品的精度, 并用这 7 种降水产品驱动 CREST 分布式水文模型,评估了 7 种降水产品的水文模拟效用。研究表 明：各降水产品与 NOAA-CPC-US 降水吻合程度从高到低,依次是 StageIV 雷达降水,PERSIANN- CDR 和 GPM-IMERG 次之,再次是 PERSIANN 和 ERA5,最后是 TRMM-3B42V7。各降水产品在美 国北部高纬度地区和西部山地等区域的小流域降水估算精度略低,在美国中部,南部,东部的小流 域有较好的降水精度。在水文模拟效用评估中,设定相同率定期,分别使用 7 种降水产品率定 CREST 模型参数,得到率定参数集后,在相同验证期对流域日径流过程进行模拟。结果表明：NO? AA-CPC-US 和 Stage IV 雷达降水在各小流域水文模拟中效果较好,在美国北部和西部地区,使用 PERSIANN,PERSIANN- CDR,GPM- IMERG,ERA5 降 水 进 行 水 文 模 拟 时 需 要 谨 慎 。 TRMM- 3B42V7 的小流域水文模拟效果不理想。     

A rain on snow climatology and temporal analysis for the eastern United States

ABSTRACT

Rain-on-snow (ROS) has the potential to produce devastating floods by enhancing runoff from snowmelt. Although a common phenomenon across the eastern United States, little research has focused on ROS in this region. This study used a gridded observational snow dataset from 1960–2009 to establish a comprehensive seasonal climatology of ROS for this region. Additionally, different rain and snow thresholds were compared while considering temporal trends in ROS occurrence at four grid cells representing individual locations. Results show most ROS events occur in MAM (March-April-May). ROS events identified with rainfall >1 cm are more frequent near the east coast and events identified with >1 cm snow loss are more common in higher latitudes and/or elevations. Decreasing trends in DJF (December-January-February) ROS events were identified near the coastal areas, with increasing trends in the northern portion of the domain. Significant decreasing trends in MAM ROS are likewise present on a regional scale. Factors playing a role in snowpack depth and rainfall, such as movement of storm tracks in this region, should be considered with future work to discern mechanisms causing the changes in ROS frequency.     

Streamflow trends and hydrological response to climatic change in Tarim headwater basin

This paper has studied the change of streamflow and the impact of climatic vari-ability conditions on regional hydrological cycle in the headwater of the Tarim River Basin. This study investigates possible causes of observed trends in streamflow in an environment which is highly variable in terms of atmospheric conditions, and where snow and ice melt play an important role in the natural hydrological regime. The discharge trends of three head streams have a significant increase trend from 1957 to 2002 with the Mann–Kendall test. Complex time-frequency distributions in the streamflow regime are demonstrated especially by Morlet wavelet analysis over 40 years. The purpose is to ascertain the nature of climatic factors spatial and temporal distribution, involved the use of EOF (Empirical Orthogonal Function) to compare the dominant temperature, precipitation and evaporation patterns from normally climatic records over the Tarim’s headwater basin. It shows that the first principal component was dominated since the 1990s for temperature and precipitation, which identifies the significant ascending trend of spatial and temporal pattern characteristics under the con-dition of the global warming. An exponential correlation is highlighted between surface air temperature and mean river discharge monthly, so the regional runoff increases by 10%–16% when surface air temperature rises by 1℃. Results suggest that headwater basins are the most vulnerable environments from the point of view of climate change, because their wa-tershed properties promote runoff feeding by glacier and snow melt water and their funda-mental vulnerability to temperature changes affects rainfall, snowfall, and glacier and ice melt.     

新疆典型流域积雪遥感信息系统数据库的建立

天山山区冬季积雪深厚,稳定积雪期较长,利用积雪遥感图象可以动态监测大面积的积雪变化,有效地调查大范围的积雪资源状况,积雪遥感监测和积雪遥感制图涉及多方面的资料,积雪数据库是积雪遥感监测系统必不可少的一部分。本文就新疆典型流域积雪遥感信息系统数据库的建立,数据库之间的数据格式转换,接口,可视化界面等进行讨论。     

A long-term Arctic snow depth record from Abisko, northern Sweden, 1913–2004

A newly digitized record of snow depth from the Abisko Scientific Research Station in northern Sweden covers the period 1913-present. Mean snow depths were taken from paper records of measurements made on a profile comprising 10 permanent stakes. This long-term record yields snow depths consistent with two other shorter term Abisko records: measurements made at another 10-stake profile (1974-present) and at a single stake (1956-present). The measurement interval is variable, ranging from daily to monthly, and there are no data for about half of the winter months in the period 1930-1956. To fill the gaps, we use a simple snowpack model driven by concurrent temperature and precipitation measurements at Abisko. Model snow depths are similar to observed; differences between the two records are comparable to those between profile and single stake measurements. For both model and observed snow depth records, the most statistically significant trend is in winter mean snow depths, amounting to an increase of about 2 cm or 5 % of the mean per decade over the whole measurement period, and 10% per decade since the 1930-40s, but all seasonal means of snow depth show positive trends on the longest timescales. However, the start, end, and length of the snow season do not show any statistically significant long-term trends. Finally, the relation between the Arctic Oscillation index and Abisko temperature, precipitation and snow depth is positive and highly significant, with the best correlations for winter.     

Daily Air Temperature Variability Associated With Climatic Variability at Columbus,Ohio

Snow is an important component of the earth's environment, and can significantly impact the everyday life of those living in a large portion of the United States. However, accurate and complete information on snowfall and snow cover is presently being collected at only 57% of the official climate observing stations in states where regional snows occur on an annual basis. The quality of the data varies significantly from one state to another, although it tends to be weakest where snow is least common. As a result of this evaluation, the list of stations with daily snow data published in National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climatohgical Data publications has been revised and expanded. [Key words: snow, snow observations, climate data, United States.]     

气候变化和人类活动对中国地表水文过程影响定量研究

利用中国372个水文站月径流数据（1960-2000年）及41个水文站年径流数据（2001-2014年）,采用基于Budyko假设的水热耦合平衡方程,构建气候变化和人类活动对径流变化影响定量评估模型,在Penman-Monteith潜在蒸发分析基础上,进一步分析气象因子对径流变化的弹性系数,量化气候变化和人类活动对径流变化的影响。结果表明：① 中国北方地区流域径流变化对各气象因子弹性系数明显大于中国南方地区。就全国而言,径流变化对各因子的弹性系数为：降水>土地利用/土地覆盖变化（LUCC）>相对湿度>太阳辐射>最高气温>风速>最低气温;② 1980-2000年,气候变化总体上有利于增加中国年径流量,而降水对年径流量增加的贡献最为显著;③ 1980-2000年,中国南方流域中,气候变化对年径流变化的影响以增加作用为主,而北方流域,以减少年径流作用为主。对中国大多数流域径流变化而言,人类活动的影响主要以减少年径流量为主。2001-2014年,气候变化以减少径流量为主,人类活动对径流变化的影响程度明显增强,气候变化与人类活动对径流变化的贡献率分别为53.5%、46.5%。该研究对气候变化与人类活动影响下,中国水资源规划管理、防灾减灾及保障水资源安全具有重要理论与现实意义。     

塔里木河流域径流变化趋势及其对气候变化的响应

This paper has studied the change of streamflow and the impact of climatic variability conditions on regional hydrological cycle in the headwater of the Tarim River Basin. This study investigates possible causes of observed trends in streamflow in an environment which is highly variable in terms of atmospheric conditions, and where snow and ice melt play an important role in the natural hydrological regime. The discharge trends of three head streams have a significant increase trend from 1957 to 2002 with the Mann-Kendall test. Complex time-frequency distributions in the streamflow regime are demonstrated especially by Morlet wavelet analysis over 40 years. The purpose is to ascertain the nature of climatic factors spatial and temporal distribution, involved the use of EOF （Empirical Orthogonal Function） to compare the dominant temperature, precipitation and evaporation patterns from normally climatic records over the Tarim＇s headwater basin. It shows that the first principal component was dominated since the 1990s for temperature and precipitation, which identifies the significant ascending trend of spatial and temporal pattern characteristics under the condition of the global warming. An exponential correlation is highlighted between surface air temperature and mean river discharge monthly, so the regional runoff increases by 10%-16% when surface air temperature rises by 1 ℃. Results suggest that headwater basins are the most vulnerable environments from the point of view of climate change, because their watershed properties promote runoff feeding by glacier and snow melt water and their fundamental vulnerability to temperature changes affects rainfall, snowfall, and glacier and ice melt.     

The basin concept: From hydrology to nature management

The main development stages of the basin concept: from landscape hydrology to nature management are considered. It is shown that the river, lake and sea drainage basins are the most widespread natural complexes on and surface, with a high degree of integrity and with clear-cut watershed divides having a powerful integrating factor, the water flow. The substantiation is provided for the concepts of the basis as a geosystem, the runoff-producing complexes and the hydrological functions of landscape as well as for the principles of hydrological, water-resources and water-protection regionalization and zoning. On this basis, a classification of hazardous hydrological processes is developed. The structural patterns of the river network within the framework of structural geography are used for indication of the mean long-term discharge and its mapping, and for a classification of river systems according to their size. It is demonstrated that the integrating properties of the water flow permit the basin to be regarded as an integral system entity not only from the perspective of hydrology but also in terms of geomorphology, biogeocenology, landscape geochemistry as well as in complex physical geography as functionally integral natural complexes thereby creating the natural basis for nature management. On the other hand, many basins are socioeconomic and ethnodemographic entities. Ten principles are formulated for the theoretical justification of the basin concept of nature management where the basin is treated as an integral natural and economic system. It is suggested that such an approach should be used in governance of nature management, especially in international basins, as well as in reforming the system of administrative-territorial division of Russia.     

中国天山西部季节性森林积雪物理特性

积雪特殊的物理特性对冰雪水文过程、积雪生态系统、不同尺度的气候系统有重要影响。目前对林下积雪物理特性缺乏系统性研究,因此对天山雪岭云杉林下季节性积雪深度、沉降速率、密度和含水率进行观测分析。结果表明：林下积雪深度小于开阔地;林下积雪沉降速率和新雪密实化率小于开阔地,且稳定期沉降速率小于融雪期。稳定期林下积雪密度小于开阔地,林下雪层密度最大值位于中粒雪层,开阔地则位于粗粒雪层;融雪期则全层密度趋于一致。稳定期林下雪层含水率随深度递减,开阔地雪层最大值出现粗粒雪层;融雪期雪层汗水峰值出现在细粒雪层,新雪层最小,林下雪层由细粒雪层到深霜层始终呈减小趋势,开阔地雪层由细粒雪层至中粒雪层逐渐减小,粗粒雪层至深霜层逐渐增大;稳定期雪层含水率日变化随深度的递减逐渐减小,开阔地大于林下;开阔地的新雪层和细粒雪层含水率的日变化大于林下,粗粒雪层到深霜层则小于林下。     

Hydrological processes of glacier and snow melting and runoff in the Urumqi River source region,eastern Tianshan Mountains,China

Hydrological processes were compared, with and without the influence of precipitation on discharge, to identify the differences between glacierized and non-glacierized catchments in the Urumqi River source region, on the northern slope of the eastern Tianshan Mountains, during the melting season (May-September) in 2011. The study was based on hydrological data observed at 10-min intervals, meteorological data observed at 15-min intervals, and glacier melting and snow observations from the Empty Cirque, Zongkong, and Urumqi Glacier No.1 gauging stations. The results indicated that the discharge differed markedly among the three gauging stations. The daily discharge was more than the nightly discharge at the Glacier No.1 gauging station, which contrasted with the patterns observed at the Zongkong and Empty Cirque gauging stations. There was a clear daily variation in the discharge at the three gauging stations, with differences in the magnitude and duration of the peak discharge. When precipitation was not considered, the time-lags between the maximum discharge and the highest temperature were 1-3 h, 10-16 h, and 5-11 h at the Glacier No.1, Empty Cirque, and Zongkong gauging stations, respectively. When precipitation was taken into consideration, the corresponding time-lags were 0-1 h, 13 h, and 6-7 h, respectively. Therefore, the duration from the generation of discharge to confluence was the shortest in the glacierized catchment and the longest in the catchment where was mainly covered by snow. It was also shown that the hydrological process from the generation of discharge to confluence shortened when precipitation was considered. The factors influencing changes in the discharge among the three gauging stations were different. For Glacier No.1 station, the discharge was mainly controlled by heat conditions in the glacierized region, and the discharge displayed an accelerated growth when the temperature exceeded 5°C in the melt season. It was found that the englacial and subglacial drainage channel of Glacier No.1 had become simpler during the past 20 years. Its weaker retardance and storage of glacier melting water resulted in rapid discharge confluence. It was also shown that the discharge curve and the time-lag between the maximum discharge and the highest temperature could be used to reveal the evolution of the drainage system and the process of glacier and snow melting at different levels of glacier coverage.     

气候变化和人类活动对信江流域径流影响模拟

以1960―1990年为基准期、1991―2005年为影响期,使用HSPF（Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran）水文模型定量分析了影响期气候变化和人类活动对信江流域径流的影响及其各自的贡献率。结果表明：1）相对于1960―1990年,1991―1995、1996―2000年的年平均径流深分别增加了271.9和246.3 mm,2001―2005年的年平均径流深减少64.1 mm。其中,气候变化对径流的影响分量在65.6%~88.0%之间,人类活动对径流的影响分量在12.0%~34.4%之间。2）人类活动对极值流量有影响。在影响期,年最大7 d平均流量和最大15 d平均流量模拟值大于对应的实测极值流量。3）在气候变化因子中,流域降水量的增加,是引起20世纪90年代信江流域径流显著增大的主要原因,其次是蒸发量的下降;人类活动包括植树造林、城市化以及水利工程修建,是影响流域径流变化的次要原因。     

基于SWAT模型的乌鲁木齐河流域径流模拟

为了更好地研究西北干旱区高山河流对气候变化的响应,在新疆乌鲁木齐河上游汇水区构建SWAT分布式水文模型,结合Sufi-2算法对模型进行参数率定、敏感性分析以及不确定性分析,对乌鲁木齐河英雄桥水文站以上2000-2011年日径流进行模拟。结果表明:(1)河岸调蓄的基流α因子、土壤饱和导水率、地下水的时间延迟、气温降水垂直变率以及相关融雪参数比较敏感。(2)模型模拟结果与观测流量过程线拟合程度较好,日值模拟结果Ens>0.75,PBIAS介于±25%,R²达到0.8以上。(3)较高的P-factor及较低的R-factor显示模型不确定性较小。总体来说,SWAT模型在乌鲁木齐河上游区的适用性比较理想。     

SYNOPTIC CONTROL OF REGIONAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN THE COTERMINOUS UNITED STATES BETWEEN 1949 AND 1981

Regional patterns of January and mean annual temperature change between 1949 and 1981 are compared with regional changes in January precipitation totals and related to upper-level atmospheric circulation. During cold periods, cooling is concentrated in the eastern United States and is associated with a southward shift in the zone of maximum precipitation in the eastern United States (reflecting the mean position of the polar front jet), and with a strengthening of meridional flow aloft. During this same period, enhanced meridionality yields an increase in temperatures in the Pacific Northwest, associated with amplification of the mean long wave ridge over the Rocky Mountains. Warm periods in the eastern United States, conversely, correlate with a stronger zonal flow aloft (resulting in cooler, wetter conditions in the Pacific Northwest). Accordingly, temporal variation in regional temperature trends may be more readily interpreted as responses to synoptic controls which yield departures of opposite sign in locales influenced by ridges vs. troughs, rather than as a reflection of uniform, progressive hemispheric or global temperature change.     

基于DEM的分布式水文模型在大尺度流域应用研究

本文选取空间大尺度黄河河源区流域为研究对象,利用分布式水文模型进行径流量模拟,采用1976～1985年唐乃亥水文站逐年、月实测径流资料进行参数率定,确定模型的基本参数,得到了较好的模拟效果。模拟结果表明气候变化是引起黄河河源区径流变化的主要原因。在80～90年代的20年间,黄河河源区由气候变化引起径流减少62.11亿m3,占径流变化总量的108.72%,由土地覆被变化引起径流增加5.73亿m3,增加量占径流变化总量的10.03%。