Heterogeneous Expansion of End-moraine Dammed Lakes in the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya Ranges of Pakistan during 2001-2013

Global climate change during the twentieth century had a significant impact on the glaciers that resulted in creation of new lakes and expansion of existing ones, and ultimately an increase in the number of glacial lake outburst floods(GLOFs) in the Himalayan region. This study reports variation of the end-moraine dammed lakes in the high altitude Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya(HKH) region of Pakistan to evaluate future floods hazard under changing climate in this region. An integrated temporal remote sensing and Geographic information system(GIS) based approach using satellite images of Landsat-7 and 8 was adopted to detect 482 endmoraine dammed lakes out of which 339 lakes(0.02 km2) were selected for temporal change analysis during the 2001-2013 period. The findings of the study revealed a net expansion in the end-moraine dammed lakes area in the Karakoram(about 7.7%) and in the Himalayas(4.6%), while there was a net shrinkage of about 1.5% in the lakes area in the Hindukush range during this period. The percentage increase in the lakes' area was highest above 4500 m asl in the Hindukush, within 3500-4000 m asl in the Himalayas and below 3500 m asl in the Karakoram range. The overall positive change in the lakes' area appears to prevail in various altitudinal ranges of the region. The heterogeneous areal changes in the endmoraine dammed lakes might be attributed to different climate regimes and glacial hydrodynamics in the three HKH ranges. A periodic monitoring of the glacial lakes and their associated glaciers is essential for developing effective hazard assessment and risk reduction strategies for this high altitude Himalayan region.     

Decadal glacial lake changes in the Koshi basin,central Himalaya,from 1977 to 2010, derived from Landsat satellite images

Changes in glacial lakes and the consequences of these changes, particularly on the development of water resources and management of glacial lake outburst flood(GLOF) risk, has become one of the challenges in the sustainable development of high mountain areas in the context of global warming. This paper presents the findings of a study on the distribution of, and area changes in, glacial lakes in the Koshi basin in the central Himalayas.Data on the number of glacial lakes and their area was generated for the years 1977, 1990, 2000, and 2010 using Landsat satellite images. According to the glacial lake inventory in 2010, there were a total of 2168 glacial lakes with a total area of 127.61 km~2 and average size of 0.06 km~2 in the Koshi basin. Of these,47% were moraine dammed lakes, 34.8% bedrock dammed lakes and 17.7% ice dammed lakes. The number of glacial lakes increased consistently over the study period from 1160 in 1977 to 2168 in 2010, an overall growth rate of 86.9%. The area of glacial lakes also increased from 94.44 km~2 in 1977 to 127.61 km~2 in 2010, a growth rate of 35.1%. A large number of glacial lakes in the inventory are small in size(≤ 0.1km~2). End moraine dammed lakes with area greater than 0.1 km~2 were selected to analyze the change characteristics of glacial lakes in the basin. The results show that, in 2010, there were 129 lakes greater than 0.1 km~2 in area; these lakes had a total area of 42.92km~2 in 1997, increasing to 63.28 km~2 in 2010. The distribution of lakes on the north side of the Himalayas(in China) was three times higher than on the south side of the Himalayas(in Nepal).Comparing the mean growth rate in area for the 33 year study period(1977-2010), the growth rate on the north side was found to be a little slower than that on the south side. A total of 42 glacial lakes with an area greater than 0.2 km~2 are rapidly growing between 1977 and 2010 in the Koshi basin, which need to be paid more attention to monitoring in the future and to identify how critical they are in terms of GLOF.     

Can a dam type of an alpine lake be derived from lake geometry?A negative result

Glacial lake outburst floods(GLOFs)represent one of the most serious hazard and risk in deglaciating high mountain regions worldwide and the need for GLOF hazard and risk assessment is apparent.As a consequence,numerous region-and nation-wide GLOF assessment studies have been published recently.These studies cover large areas and consider hundreds to thousands of lakes,prioritizing the hazard posed by them.Clearly,certain simplification is required for executing such studies,often resulting in neglecting qualitative characteristics which would need manual assignment.Different lake dam types(e.g.,bedrock-dammed,moraine-dammed)are often not distinguished,despite they control GLOF mechanism(dam overtopping/dam breach)and thus GLOF magnitude.In this study,we explore the potential of easily measurable quantitative characteristics and four ratios to approximate the lake dam type.Our dataset of 851 lakes of the Cordillera Blanca suggests that while variances and means of these characteristics of individual lake types differ significantly(F-test,t-test),value distribution of different geometrical properties can’t be used for the originally proposed purpose along the spectra.The only promising results are obtained for extreme values(selected bins)of the ratios.For instance,the low width to length ratio indicates likely morainedammed lake while the high value of ratio indicating round-shape of the lake indicates increased likelihood of bedrock-dammed lake.Overall,we report a negative result of our experiment since there are negligible differences of relative frequencies in most of the bins along the spectra.     

青藏高原湖泊面积动态监测

高原湖泊的动态变化对区域水循环具有重要影响。受全球气候变化的影响,青藏高原湖泊自20世纪90年代开始呈现剧烈扩张趋势。为揭示近年来青藏高原湖泊面积的时空变化规律,本文提出了一种改进的半自动湖泊提取算法,结合环境减灾卫星（HJ-1A/1B）和Landsat系列卫星影像数据,对青藏高原内流流域中面积大于50 km²的127个湖泊进行了连续6年的动态监测,并分析了该区域2009-2014年湖泊面积时空变化特征。研究结果表明,该区域湖泊整体呈现显著扩张趋势,年均变化速率为231.89 km²yr^-1（0.87 %yr^-1）,6年间湖泊面积扩张速率有所减缓。其中,扩张湖泊有104个,收缩湖泊有23个,变化速率分别为271.08 km²yr^-1（1.02 % yr^-1）和-39.19 km²yr^-1（-0.15 %yr^-1）。不同区域湖泊面积变化具有明显差异,主要表现为东部及北部大部分区域湖泊扩张,南部地区大部分湖泊面积稳定,萎缩湖泊主要分布于研究区四周。最后,本文通过分析冰川融水补给对湖泊面积变化的影响,发现存在冰川融水补给的湖泊面积变化率远大于不存在冰川融水补给的湖泊。由此可见,近年来冰川融水的增加是促进青藏高原内流流域湖泊扩张的主要因素之一。     

1972-2017年南阿尔泰山中部冰湖变化特征及其对气候变化的响应

以1972、1989、1996、2006、2017年5个不同时段的Landsat MSS/TM/ETM+/OLI遥感影像数据、数字高程模型（DEM）数据和气象数据为数据源,通过计算机自动提取与人工目视解译相结合的方法获取南阿尔泰山中部地区各时段的冰湖信息,利用GIS空间分析方法对该地区的冰湖面积进行统计,并分析研究区冰湖在不同规模、不同坡度、不同海拔状态下的时空变化特征。结果表明:①近45年来南阿尔泰山中部地区的冰湖面积呈"先减后增"趋势。1972-1996年研究区的冰湖面积从411.14 km2减少至400.83 km2,共减少了10.31 km2,减少速率为0.43 km2/a。从1996-2017年冰湖面积增加了15.42 km2;增长率为0.514 km2/a。②研究区冰湖分布主要集中在海拔低于2 200 m、坡度小于25°的区域,不同海拔区间和不同坡度区间的冰湖面积均呈"先减后增"趋势。③结合气温、降水、冰川面积以及冰储量变化数据分析发现,南阿尔泰山中部地区冰湖对气候变化具有明显的响应。温度、降水量及冰川融水是影响冰湖面积变化的主要因素;且这三者之间存在一种平衡关系,即温度升高冰川消融速度加快,从而对冰湖的收支平衡产生直接影响。当冰湖的补给量（即冰川融水和降水量之和）大于由温度升高引起的蒸发量时,冰湖面积会呈增长趋势;反之亦然。1970-1980年整个阿勒泰地区年代际降水量减少了19.28 mm,温度上升了0.25℃,因此1972-1989年研究区冰湖的蒸发水量大于补给水量,导致该时段冰湖面积呈退缩态势。1989-1996年该区降水量增加了19.67%,温度升高了0.62℃,但是增加的降水量却无法弥补由温度升高引起的冰湖蒸发量,因此1989-1996年研究区冰湖面积仍处于退缩状态。1996-2017年由于温度和降水量大幅增加导致冰湖面积呈不断增长趋势。      

Lake inventory and potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the Nyang Qu Basin of China between 1970 and 2016

There are a large number of glaciers and lakes developed in the Nyang Qu Basin of China. Recent climate change has significant impacted on the high-mountain glacial environment. Rapid melting of glaciers contributes to the formation and expansion of moraine-dammed lakes which increase the probability of glacial lake outburst floods(GLOFs). We calculated a multi-temporal lake inventory based on(1) topographic maps in the 1970 s,(2) satellite imageries from 1990 to 2016,(3) First Chinese Glacier Inventory(FCGI),(4) Glacier Inventory of Southeastern Tibet(GIST) and(5) meteorological data. A total of 880 lakes(>0.01 km^2) have been mapped in 2016, with 318 being glacial lakes(GLs) and 462 non-glacier lakes(NGLs). Most of the lakes were mainly located at 4500 m a.s.l. and the lakes dominated by small lakes(<0.1 km^2) where the change of their actual sizes are more significant compared to the larger ones. Meanwhile, we found that there were 178 newly formed GLs and 51 of them had disappeared between 1970 and 2016. During the same period, there can be identified 157 newly formed GLs and 226 had disappeared. We additionally performed a hazard and risk assessment for GL in 2016 and exposed 14 potentially dangerous morainedammed lakes(PDMDLs), covering a total area of 5.88 km2 in the Nyang Qu Basin. There can be found 4 GLs with very high risk, 3 GLs with high risk, 4 GLs with medium risk and 4 GLs with low risk of GLOFs susceptibility. The findings of this study can be used for the future policy of risk management and also be adapted for promoting water resources management.     

2000-2013年青藏高原湖泊面积MODIS遥感监测分析

青藏高原上分布着大量的高原内陆湖泊群,该区域湖泊面积与区域及全球气候变化之间存在较强的耦合关系,遥感监测湖泊的分布和面积变化趋势,对分析区域自然生态环境具有重要意义。本研究将MOD09A1（地表反射率8天合成数据）进行逐月合成,提出了一种综合多种水体指数的青藏高原地区湖泊提取方法,并通过活动窗口、DEM和时间序列去噪等方法,消除山体阴影、冰雪等因素的干扰。最后,提取和合成了2000-2013年青藏高原逐年和逐月的湖泊范围,并选取色林错和卓乃湖2个典型湖泊与人工解译Landsat系列影像进行验证分析,其线性拟合度分别为0.99和0.97,从时空变化趋势上分析了青藏高原湖泊面积动态变化。结果表明：（1）2000-2013年,青藏高原地区湖泊范围整体上呈较显著的扩张趋势,湖泊总面积增加速率约为490.98 km² a^-1（R²约为0.96）;（2）1-12月份湖泊面积逐月变化率均大于0,表明青藏高原湖泊面积呈整体扩张,而非季节性扩张。除2-4月份外,其他月份增加速率均在400 km² a^-1以上（R²>0.79）,表现为稳定且持续扩张趋势。     

Temporal changes in wetland plant communities with decades of cumulative water pollution in two plateau lakes in China’s Yunnan Province

Wetland plant communities in the plateau lakes of Yunnan Province, China, have decreased significantly over the past decades. To better understand this degradation, we analyzed the processes and characteristics of changes in wetland plant communities in two of the largest lakes in Yunnan Province, Dianchi and Erhai lakes. We collected records of native and alien plant communities in the two lakes from literature published from the 1950s to current period. We calculated plant community types and their area in some historical periods when related data were reported, and analyzed the relationship between changes in plant communities and water pollution. In Dianchi Lake, 12 community types of native plant communities, covering over 80% of the surface in the 1950s and 1960s, were reduced to four types covering 2.4% by the late 2000s. Alien plant communities started to appear in the lake in the late 1970s, and have since come to cover 4.9% of the lake surface, thereby becoming dominant. In Erhai Lake, 16 community types of native plant communities, covering 47.1% of the lake surface in the late 1970s, declined to 10 community types, covering 9.3% of the surface, by the late 2000s. Alien plant communities appeared in the middle 1980s, and at present cover 0.7% of the surface area. It was indicated that changes in plant communities were significant related to water eutrophication. The area occupied by native and alien plant communities was, respectively, negatively and positively related to the content of nutrients in water. This showed lacustrine pollution played an important role in native plant loss and alien plant invasion in the two plateau lakes.     

Improvement of glacial lakes detection under shadow environment using ASTER data in Himalayas, Nepal

The detection of glacial lake change in the Himalayas, Nepal is extremely significant since the glacial lake change is one of the crucial indicators of global climate change in this area, where is the most sensitive area of the global climate changes. In the Himalayas, some of glacial lakes are covered by the dark mountains′ shadow because of their location. Therefore, these lakes can not be detected by conventional method such as Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), because the reflectance feature of shadowed glacial lake is different comparing to the ones which are located in the open flat area. The shadow causes two major problems: 1) glacial lakes which are covered by shadow completely result in underestimation of the number of glacial lakes; 2) glacial lakes which are partly identified are considered to undervalue the area of glacial lakes. The aim of this study is to develop a new model, named Detection of Shadowed Glacial Lakes (DSGL) model, to identify glacial lakes under the shadow environment by using Advanced Space-borne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) data in the Himalayas, Nepal. The DSGL model is based on integration of two different modifications of NDWI, namely NDWIs model and NDWI she model. NDWIs is defined as integration of the NDWI and slope analysis and used for detecting non-shadowed lake in the mountain area. The NDWIshe is proposed as a new methodology to overcome the weakness of NDWIs on identifying shadowed lakes in highly elevated mountainous area such as the Himalayas. The first step of the NDWIshe is to enhance the data from ASTER 1B using the histogram equalization (HE) method, and its outcome product is named ASTER he . We used the ASTER he for calculating the NDWI he and the NDWIshe . Integrated with terrain analysis using Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data, the NDWI she can be used to identify the shadowed glacial lakes in the Himalayas. NDWIs value of 0.41 is used to identify the glacier lake (NDWIs≥0.41), and 0.3 of NDWIshe is used to identify the shadowed glacier lake (NDWIshe≤0.3). The DSGL model was proved to be able to classify the glacial lakes more accurately, while the NDWI model had tendency to underestimate the presence of actual glacial lakes. Correct classification rate regarding the products from NDWI model and DSGL model were 57% and 99%, respectively. The results of this paper demonstrated that the DSGL model is promising to detect glacial lakes in the shadowed environment at high mountains.     

藏东南多依弄巴流域冰湖溃决危险性评价

冰湖溃决灾害是指冰湖坝体突然破坏引发溃决洪水或溃决泥石流的现象,对下游人类活动和自然环境造成严重影响。近年来,藏东南地区冰川快速退缩,冰湖数量和规模显著增加,冰湖溃决事件广泛发生。基于1995-2021年多时相Landsat系列遥感影像、Sentinel-2A遥感影像,结合RAMMS水文动力学模型方法,对藏东南地区多依弄巴流域内冰湖、冰川进行动态变化分析,模拟冰崩危险体触发冰湖溃决和冰湖溃决泥石流的演进过程,根据泥石流模拟中的流速和流深对冰湖溃决可能影响的区域进行危险性分区。结果表明:流域内冰川面积由1995年的14.05 km2退缩为2021年的9.43 km2,年均退缩率约为0.15 km2/a。流域内共发育3处冰崩危险体,均可能触发冰湖溃决。潜在危险冰湖在全溃情况下,溃决泥石流会冲出沟口堵塞然乌湖湖口和帕隆藏布主河道,对下游居民和道路造成影响,影响范围约4.05 km2,其中高危险性区域约2.55 km2。危险性评价结果可为多依弄巴流域未来土地利用规划和防灾减灾提供依据,也能为藏东南地区冰湖溃决型泥石流危险评估提供参考。      

利用GPS观测资料分析2015年尼泊尔MS8.1地震震前及震后形变

通过对尼泊尔MS8.1地震前后附近区域GPS台站记录到的观测数据进行处理,获得了震区以及中国青藏高原地区地震前后GPS站点速度场以及震后形变场。震前速度场显示,喜马拉雅构造带整体呈现出约16 mm/a的压缩特征。同时,震前喜马拉雅构造带根据形变特征可分为东、中、西3段,其地震发生在中段,主要以北向挤压为主,而东西两段分别具有逆时针旋转和顺时针旋转的特征。震后GPS站点形变场显示,此次地震对中国新疆、青海、西藏等地区的影响较大,其最大震后位移达20 mm左右。震后速度场显示,本次地震对尼泊尔地区以及中国藏南地区的构造形变影响较大,主要表现为喜马拉雅构造带的年推挤速度减小,藏南地区的南北向运动速率减小,而东西向速度有增大的现象。这一现象可能对藏南地区的走滑断层有较大影响。     

利用GPS TEC探测2015年尼泊尔地震激发的电离层扰动

利用尼泊尔周边区域6个IGS GPS跟踪站数据,对2015-04-25尼泊尔地震激发的电离层扰动进行分析。结果表明,地震发生后,尼泊尔上空电离层总电子含量（total electron content,TEC）存在不同频率的电离层扰动,扰动中心频率约为3 mHz和4 mHz。前者发生在震中附近1 000 km左右的范围,后者范围达2 000 km,推断其分别为地震破裂产生的声重波信号以及瑞利波向上传播到电离层所激发的异常扰动信号。联合两个频率扰动信号,根据观测的扰动位置以及经验扰动速度反演震中位置,结果与实际情况符合较好。     

1987-2017年粤港澳大湾区城市群的不透水地表扩张与梯度演化

不透水地表是衡量城市化过程与空间扩张的重要特征.本文以我国最具经济活力的城市群-粤港澳大湾区城市(以下简称大湾区)为研究区,采用重心-标准差椭圆与梯度分析等方法,探讨其1987-2017年不透水地表的时空扩张分布特征与演化趋势.结果 表明:①30年来大湾区的不透水地表面积从1839.34km2持续增长至12 385.9...     

Review of studies on land use and land cover change in Nepal

Land use and land cover(LULC) in Nepal has undergone constant change over the past few decades due to major changes caused by anthropogenic and natural factors and their impacts on the national and regional environment and climate.This comprehensive review of past and present studies of land use and land cover change(LUCC) in Nepal concentrates on cropland, grassland, forest, snow/glacier cover and urban areas. While most small area studies have gathered data from different sources and research over a short period, across large areas most historical studies have been based on aerial photographs such as the Land Resource Mapping Project in 1986. The recent trend in studies in Nepal is to focus on new concepts and techniques to analyze LULC status on the basis of satellite imagery, with the help of geographic information system and remote sensing tools. Studies based on historical documents, and historical and recent spatial data on LULC, have clearly shown an increase in cropland areas in Nepal,and present results indicating different rates and magnitudes. A decrease in forest and snow/glacier coverage is reported in most studies. Little information is available on grassland and urban areas from past research. The unprecedented rate of urbanization in Nepal has led to significant urban land changes over the past 30 years. Meanwhile, long term historical LUCC research in Nepal is required for extensive work on spatially explicit reconstructions on the basis of historical and primary data collection, including LULC archives and drivers for future change.     

Dynamic changes in lakes in the Hoh Xil region before and after the 2011 outburst of Zonag Lake

Zonag, Kusai, Hedin Noel and Yanhu Lakes are independent inland lakes in the Hoh Xil region on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. In September2011, Zonag Lake burst after the water level had increased for many years. Floods flowed through Kusai and Hedin Noel Lakes into Yanhu Lake; since then, the four small endorheic catchments merged into one larger catchment. This hydrological process caused the rapid shrinkage of Zonag Lake and continuous expansion of Yanhu Lake. In this study,based on satellite images, meteorological data and field investigations, we examined the dynamic changes in the four lakes and analyzed the influencing factors. The results showed that before 2011, the trends in the four lake areas were similar and displayed several stages. The change in the area of Zonag Lake corresponded well to the change in annual precipitation(AP), but the magnitude of the change was less than that of a non-glacier-fed lake. Although increased precipitation was the dominant factor that caused Zonag Lake to expand, increased glacier melting and permafrost thawing due to climate warming also had significant effects. After the 2011 outburst of Zonag Lake, due to the increasing AP and accelerating glacier melting, the increases in water volume of the three lakes were absorbed by Yanhu Lake, and Yanhu Lake expanded considerably. According to the rapid growth rates in water level and lake area, Yanhu Lake is likely to burst in 1-2 years.     

西藏纳木错流域现代环境变化特征及影响

该文利用已有资料,综述了纳木错流域冰川湖泊对气候变暖的敏感响应。太阳辐射是气候变化的主要能量来源,西风和印度季风的不均匀分布对高原冰川和湖泊的影响具有区域差异性。在气候变暖背景下,1970年以来,纳木错流域的冰川呈退缩趋势,湖泊面积呈扩大趋势,湖泊结冰时间延迟,融化时间提前,平均降水量变化趋势不明显。以上指标的变化都不具有周期性,很难识别太阳黑子的活动周期。冰川融化是湖泊面积扩大的主要因素,冻土融化产生的水量也是湖泊面积扩大不可忽视的原因。     

融合面向对象和分水岭算法的山地湖泊提取方法

面向对象的方法提取湖泊,常常面临边界识别不精确的问题。本研究在面向对象方法的基础上,利用分水岭算法,解决湖泊边界识别问题。该方法初步将遥感影像划分为确定湖泊区域、潜在湖泊区域和背景;然后通过分水岭算法对潜在湖泊区域进行二次提取。研究选择昆仑-喀喇和喜马拉雅山脉区域的3个山地湖泊发育良好的区域作为实验区,利用Landsat系列影像验证该算法。实验结果表明该算法的用户精度、生产者精度和总体精度分别高达99.59%、98.47%和96.53%。相比于单一的面向对象方法,本文方法更适合于山地湖泊提取,能够更加准确地描绘湖泊的实际边界,也能够减弱面向对象方法中分割尺度和分类阈值对提取结果的影响。     

汝阳南部逆冲推覆构造的地质特征

汝阳南部中元古界熊耳群火山岩与中、新生代地层分布区之间存在一条北西─南东向展布的逆冲推覆构造。调查区内延伸约３５ｋｍ。本文综述了该逆冲推覆构造的运动系统、滑脱面及原地系统的构造变形特征，并根据逆冲推覆的最晚地层、指向标志等特征，推断其形成于早第三纪末期，是喜马拉雅运动期的构造产物。     

面向大区域遥感专题制图的自动化策略

如何消除相邻影像间的信息冗余是实现大区域遥感自动化制图的关键。本文提出了一种基于约束接缝线的区域分块自动化制图方法,首先采用全球通用墨卡托投影-UTM投影的网格带将研究区分为若干小区域;然后,针对每个UTM投影带内的遥感影像,采用影像镶嵌的原理和湖泊边界约束条件计算其接缝线网络,以确定每景遥感数据制图范围;最后,根据其制图范围生成对应的无冗余专题信息,减少计算量和相邻影像重复信息的编辑时间。本文以亚洲中部干旱区为例开展湖泊制图试验,结果证明该方法能够生成顾及湖泊的有效制图范围,提高了遥感大区域制图的效率。     

Effect of lake surface temperature on the summer precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau

There are numerous lakes on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), but the role of lake temperature in precipitation over the TP remains unclear. Here the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to detect the impact of lakes on summer rainfall. Three test cases were used to evaluate the effect of lakes surface temperature (LSTs) on precipitation variability. The three cases used different methods to determine initial LSTs, including using sea surface temperature data (SST), the WRF inland water module (avg_tsfc), and a lake model. Results show that when precipitation was stimulated over the TP, LSTs cannot be initialized using SST, which led to large discrepancies of precipitation. Compared with the simulations, the simulated precipitation were improved obviously with LSTs using avg_tsfc, indicating that LSTs have an considerable influence on determining precipitation over the TP. Due to a lack of observational data, the lake scheme does not improve on rainfall simulation, but does effectively simulate precipitation pattern over lakes, such as rainfall over the lakes was dominated by convection during the nighttime. Though the simulated precipitation using SST to initialize LSTs caused large discrepancies, it suggested that precipitation increase especially convective precipitation with increase in LSTs, which confirmed that the moisture from lakes cannot be neglected over the TP. Generally, it was necessary to monitor the LSTs for accurate weather and climate prediction over the TP.