Species and plant community reorganization in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt under climate change conditions

This study analyzes six vegetation communities in relation to current climatic parameters and eight climate change scenarios along an elevation gradient extending from 2,710 m to 4,210m in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. The projected movements of 25 plant species with the current restricted or wide altitudinal distributions were also modeled. To relate climatic parameters to the species and communities, a Precipitation/Temperature(P/T)index was used both for the current and the different climate-change scenarios. The temperatures are expected to increase by 1.1°C to 1.7°C by 2020 and by2°C to 3°C by 2050. A decrease of 4% to 13% in the annual precipitation is expected for the 2020 horizon,and a reduction between 3% and 20% is expected for2050. The reductions in water availability were projected for all altitude levels and plant communities.The most marked reduction was under the HADLEYA2 scenario, in which the lower limit of the altitudinal range increased from 2,710 to 3,310 m(2050 horizon)with reductions in the P/T index between 36% and39% compared to the current climate. Most plant species tended to shift their distribution from 200 to300 m upward in the 2020 temporal horizon scenarios. The Pinus hartwegii, Alnus jorullensis and Pinus montezumae communities would have a shorter altitudinal range as they move upward and merge with the remaining species at the higher altitudinal range. For the 2050 temporal horizon,30% of the species, primarily those from the higher altitudinal range, would disappear because their P/Tindex values would be above the limit of plant survival(4,210 m).     

THE PRELIMINARY STUDY ON POSSIBLE SCENARIOS OF FLOOD AND DROUGHT IN CHINA IN THE CASE OF GLOBAL WARMING

ＴＨＥ ＰＲＥＬＩＭＩＮＡＲＹ ＳＴＵＤＹ ＯＮ ＰＯＳＳＩＢＬＥ ＳＣＥＮＡＲＩＯＳ ＯＦ ＦＬＯＯＤ ＡＮＤ ＤＲＯＵＧＨＴ ＩＮ ＣＨＩＮＡ ＩＮ ＴＨＥ ＣＡＳＥ ＯＦ ＧＬＯＢＡＬ ＷＡＲＭＩＮＧ ＣｈｅｎＪｉａｑｉ（陈家其）（Ｎａｎｊｉｎ...     

Modeling Arctic Ocean heat transport and warming episodes in the 20th century caused by the intruding Atlantic Water

This study investigates the Arctic Ocean warming episodes in the 20th century using both a high-resolution coupled global climate model and historical observations. The model, with no flux adjustment, reproduces well the Atlantic Water core temperature （AWCT） in the Arctic Ocean and shows that four largest decadalscale warming episodes occurred in the 1930s, 70s, 80s, and 90s, in agreement with the hydrographic observational data. The difference is that there was no pre-warming prior to the 1930s episode, while there were two pre-warming episodes in the 1970s and 80s prior to the 1990s, leading the 1990s into the largest and prolonged warming in the 20th century. Over the last century, the simulated heat transport via Fram Strait and the Barents Sea was estimated to be, on average, 31.32 TW and 14.82 TW, respectively, while the Bering Strait also provides 15.94 TW heat into the west- ern Arctic Ocean. Heat transport into the Arctic Ocean by the Atlantic Water via Fram Strait and the Barents Sea correlates significantly with AWCT （ C = 0.75 ） at 0- lag. The modeled North Atlantic Oscillation （NAO） index has a significant correlation with the heat transport （ C = 0.37 ）. The observed AWCT has a significant correlation with both the modeled AWCT （ C =0.49） and the heat transport （ C =0.41 ）. However, the modeled NAO index does not significantly correlate with either the observed AWCT （ C = 0.03 ） or modeled AWCT （ C = 0.16 ） at a zero-lag, indicating that the Arctic climate system is far more complex than expected.     

Preliminary Mapping and Characterisation of Soils in the Pirin Mountains (Bulgaria)

Soft types, humus types and vegetation as well as their hypsometric variation were analysed in terms of sequences in the northern part of the high mountains of the Pirin National Park at altitudes between 1000 and 2400 m a.s.l. The study area is characterised by a large variety of natural parameters like petrology (mainly marble and granite), morphology (different slope deposits, exposition) and the orographic climate gradient. Statistical analyses using these parameters provided a basis for the soil group classification of the sites. Based on a Digital Terrain Model (DTM) and a geological map of the Pirin National Park, the results of these statistical analyses were used to generate a "map of potential soft groups" (regionalisation using GIS). Six potential soil groups could be determined. The resulting map exhibits a confidence level of 68% on 74.4% of the covered area. Rendzic Leptosols, in combination with Folio Histosols and Histi-lithic Leptosols occur in the alpine and subalpine regions on calcareous substrates. With decreasing altitude they are replaced by a mosaic of Rendzic Leptosols, Phaeozems and an increasing occurrence of Cambic Umbrisols. Umbrisols found on silicatic substrates in the alpine region are replaced by Cambic Umbrisols with decreasing altitude as well. Hence, pedogenesis is characterised by increasing browning and depth of the soil profiles with decreasing altitude. The pH-level is slightly acidic to neutral in lower zones and on calcareous rocky bases. Acidification increases in the subalpine zone. Soft pH decreases down to 4 on silicate subtrates. Typical humic values in mineral topsoils are 10 to 12%, and in organic layers of the softs above 2000 m a.s.l, they are even more. The C:N ratio closely ranges around 20 (median).     

AN ANALYSIS OF WATER RESOURCE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE RIVERS IN THE NORTHERN SLOPE OF THE KUNLUN MOUNTAINS

ＡＮＡＮＡＬＹＳＩＳＯＦＷＡＴＥＲＲＥＳＯＵＲＣＥＣＨＡＲＡＣＴＥＲＩＳＴＩＣＳＯＦＴＨＥＲＩＶＥＲＳＩＮＴＨＥＮＯＲＴＨＥＲＮＳＬＯＰＥＯＦＴＨＥＫＵＮＬＵＮＭＯＵＮＴＡＩＮＳＸｕＹｏｕｐｅｎｇ（许有鹏）；ＧａｏＹｕｎｊｕｅ（高蕴珏）（Ｄｅｐａｒｔ...     

南秦岭龙王洞地区中生代云峰寨单元花岗岩地球化学特征及其地质意义

该文对南秦岭龙王洞地区中生代云峰寨单元花岗岩的主量元素特征、微量元素特征及稀土元素特征进行分析研究,对该岩体进行较为全面的地球化学特征总结。研究表明:云峰寨单元花岗岩属于碱性过铝质A型花岗岩,形成于高温、贫水、高压的相对还原环境。花岗岩成因以地壳作用为主,花岗岩中稀土元素总体富集且分馏程度较高,轻稀土元素较重稀土元素富集且分馏明显。花岗岩为主动就位机制,是在早燕山期造山垮塌阶段的张性构造环境时期产生,与陆壳增厚、地幔物质减压隆升密切相关。     

Interannual and seasonal changes in the ice cover of glacial lakes in the Snowy Mountains of Australia

Seasonal ice cover is uncommon on Australian lakes. In the Snowy Mountains, there are five natural, seasonally ice-covered lakes including Lake Cootapatamba, the highest lake in Australia. Blue Lake is the only one of the five lakes with sufficient volume to be relatively independent of short-term changes in ambient temperature, and therefore is the lake most likely to be of use in tracking long-term regional climate change. Ice forms on Blue Lake near the winter solstice and ice-breakup occurs from late September to November. Timing of breakup is related to spring temperature and, as such, mirrors the timing of general snow thaw in the mountains. The existence of historic photographs taken of the lake at about the time of ice breakup allows for the possibility of reconstructing a history of alpine climate and in 1905 ice breakup was probably as late as mid-December.     

THE ORIGIN AND CHARACTERISTICS OF THE GLACIAL DEBRIS FLOW IN THE DUKU HIGHWAY OF TIANSHAN MOUNTAINS，

ＴＨＥＯＲＩＧＩＮＡＮＤＣＨＡＲＡＣＴＥＲＩＳＴＩＣＳＯＦＴＨＥＧＬＡＣＩＡＬＤＥＢＲＩＳＦＬＯＷＩＮＴＨＥＤＵＫＵＨＩＧＨＷＡＹＯＦＴＩＡＮＳＨＡＮＭＯＵＮＴＡＩＮＳ，ＣＨＩＮＡ￥ＸｉｏｎｇＨｅｉｇａｎｇ（ＤｅｐａｒｔｍｅｎｔｏｆＧｅｏｇｒａｐｈｙ...     

The characteristics and vertical zone spectrum of natural disasters in the Tianshan Mountains, Xinjiang

１ＩＮＴＲＯＤＵＣＴＩＯＮＡｔｐｒｅｓｅｎｔ,ｔｈｅｒｅｓｅａｒｃｈｏｆｎａｔｕｒａｌｄｉｓａｓｔｅｒｓｈａｓｇｏｔａｄｖａｎｃｅｓｉｎｔｉｍｅｓｅｑｕｅｎｃｅ,ｂｕｔｉｔｄｅｖｅｌｏｐｓｓｌｏｗｌｙｉｎｓｐａｃｅｓｅｑｕｅｎｃｅ,ｅｓｐｅｃｉａｌｙ...     

Relationship between Antarctic sea ice and the climate in summer of China

The variations of sea ice are different in different regions in Antarctica, thus have different impacts on local atmospheric circulation and global climatic system. The relationships between the sea ice in Ross Sea and Weddell Sea regions and the synoptic climate in summer of China are investigated in this paper via diagnostic analysis methods by using global sea ice concentration gridded data covering Jan. 1968 through Dec. 2002 obtained from Hadley Center, combined with Geopotential Height on 500hPa and 100hPa over North Hemisphere and monthly precipitation and air temperatures data covering the corresponding period over 160 meteorological stations in China obtained from CMA （ China Meteorological Administration）. Results disclose that both these two regions are of indicative meanings to the climate in summer of China. The Ross Sea Region is the key sea ice region to the precipitation in Northeast China in summer. More sea ice in this region in September will result in less precipitation in Northeast China in the following June. Weddell Sea Region is the key sea ice region to the air temperature in Northeast China in summer. More sea ice in this region in September will contribute to lower air temperature in Northeast China in the following June.     

Stable Isotope Signatures and Moisture Transport of a Typical Heavy Precipitation Case in the Southern Tianshan Mountains

Stable oxygen isotopes in precipitation contain meaningful environmental information on a synoptic scale and can be applied to diagnose hydrometeorological processes.A series of rainstorms occurred at the southern Tianshan Mountains during the period from May to June 2013,and the event-based precipitation was sampled along the mountain range from west to east.Based on δ18 O values in precipitation samples as well as the corresponding meteorological parameters,the moisture transport paths during the sampling period were identified.In late-May(stage 1),isotopes in precipitation collected generally showed a depleting trend.In mid-June(stage 2),there was no coherent trend of isotopes in precipitation for these stations,and only isotope values in Aksu showed a continually depleting trend.Checking other meteorological proxies during the sampling period,the event-based precipitation isotopes sensitively reflected the moisture process.In central Asia,both the westerly and monsoon moisture can be delivered to cause extreme precipitation events,and the isotopic information provides an alternative tool to investigate the atmospheric processes.     

Mapping daily temperature and precipitation in the Qilian Mountains of northwest China

Daily meteorological data are the critical inputs for distributed hydrological and ecological models. This study modified mountain microclimate simulation model （MTCLIM） with the data from 19 weather stations, and compared and validated two methods （the MTCLIM and the modified MTCLIM） in the Qilian Mountains of Northwest China to estimate daily temperature （i.e., maximum temperature, minimum temperature） and precipitation at six weather stations from i January 2000 to 31December 2009. The algorithm of temperature in modified MTCLIM was improved by constructing the daily linear regression relationship between temperature and elevation, aspect and location information. There are two steps to modify the MTCLIM to predict daily precipitation： firstly, the linear regression relationship was built between annual average precipitation and elevation, location, and vegetation index; secondly, the distance weight for measuring the contribution of each weather station on target point was improved by average wind direction during the rainy season. Several regression analysis and goodness-of-fit indices （i.e., Pearson＇s correlation coefficient, coefficient of determination, mean absolute error, root-mean-square error and modelingefficiency） were used to validate these estimated values. The result showed that the modified MTCLIM had a better performance than the MTCLIM. Therefore, the modified MTCLIM was used to map daily meteorological data in the study area from 2000 to 2009. These results were validated using weather stations with short time data and the predicted accuracy was acceptable. The meteorological data mapped could become inputs for distributed hydrological and ecological models applied in the Qilian Mountains.     

Carbon dynamics in woody biomass of forest ecosystem in China with forest management practices under future climate change and rising CO2 concentration

It is critical to study how different forest management practices affect forest carbon sequestration under global climate change regime. Previous researches focused on the stand-level forest carbon sequestration with rare investigation of forest carbon stocks influ- enced by forest management practices and climate change at regional scale. In this study, a general integrative approach was used to simulate spatial and temporal variations of woody biomass and harvested biomass of forest in China during the 21st century under dif- ferent scenarios of climate and CO2 concentration changes and management tasks by coupling Integrated Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon budget （InTEC） model with Global Forest Model （G4M）. The results showed that forest management practices have more predominant effects on forest stem stocking biomass than climate and CO2 concentration change. Meanwhile, the concurrent future changes in cli- mate and CO2 concentration will enhance the amounts of stem stocking biomass in forests of China by 12%-23% during 2001-2100 relative to that with climate change only. The task for maximizing stem stocking biomass will dramatically enhance the stem stocking biomass from 2001~100, while the task for maximum average increment will result in an increment of stem stocking biomass before 2050 then decline. The difference of woody biomass responding to forest management tasks was owing to the current age structure of forests in China. Meanwhile, the sensitivity of long-term woody biomass to management practices for different forest types （coniferous forest, mixed forest and deciduous forest） under changing climate and CO2 concentration was also analyzed. In addition, longer rotation length under future climate change and rising CO2 concentration scenario will dramatically increase the woody biomass of China during 2001~100. Therefore, our estimation indicated that taking the role of forest management in the carbon cycle into the consideration at regional or national level is very important to project the forest carbon sequestration under future climate change and rising atmospheric CO2 concentration.     

Annual time-series analyses of total gaseous mercury measurement and its impact factors on the Gongga Mountains in the southeastern fringe of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Long-term monitoring programs for measurement of atmospheric mercury concentrations are presently recognized as powerful tools for local,regional and global studies of atmospheric long-range transport processes,and they could also provide valuable information about the impact of emission controls on the global budget of atmospheric mercury,their observance and an insight into the global mercury cycle. China is believed to be an increasing atmospheric mercury emission source. However,only a few measurements of mercury,to our knowledge,have been done in ambient air over China. The highly-time resolved atmospheric mercury concen-trations have been measured at Moxi Base Station （102°72′E 29°92′N,1640 m asl） of the Gongga Alpine Ecosystem Observation and Experiment Station of Chinese Academy of Sciences （CAS） from May 2005 to June 2006 by using a set of Automatic Atmospheric Mercury Speciation Analyzers （Tekran 2537A）. Measurements were carried out with a time resolution of every 15 minutes. The overall average total gaseous mercury （TGM） covering the measurement periods was 4±1.38 ng·m^-3 （N=57310）,which is higher than the global background level of approximately 1.5～2.0 ng·m^-3. The measurements in all seasons showed a similar diurnal change pattern with a high concentration during daytime relative to nighttime and maximum concentration near solar noon and minimum concentration immediately before sunrise. The presence of diurnal TGM peaks during spring and summer was found earlier than that during autumn and winter. When divided seasonally,it was found that the concentrations of TGM were highest in winter with 6.13 ± 1.78 ng·m^-3 and lowest in summer with 3.17 ± 0.67 ng·m^-3. There were no significant differences in TGM among wind sectors during each season. Whereas Hg generally exhibited significant correlations with the parameters,such as temperature,saturated vapor pressure,precipitation,ultraviolet radiation （UV） and atmospheric pressure at the whole measurement stage,and t     

ELECTROCHEMICAL CORROSION BEHAVIOR OF STEEL IN THE JUNCTURE AREA OF SEA CLAY AND SAND

Corrosion behavior of steel in the juncture area of sea clay and sand was studied. The results show that galvanic corrosion occurred between steel samples buried in sea clay and sand, and that the polarity of the galvanic cell reversed after some testing later. The cause of reversing of polarity is discussed.     

The Relationship between Normalized Difference Vegetation Index （NDVI） and Climate Factors in the Semiarid Region： A Case Study in Yalu Tsangpo River Basin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The Yalu Tsangpo River basin is a typical semi-arid and cold region in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, where significant climate change has been detected in the past decades. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate how the regional vegetation, especially the typical plant types, responds to the climate changes. In this study, the model of gravity center has been firstly introduced to analyze the spatial-temporal relationship between NDVI and climate factors considering the time-lag effect. The results show that the vegetation grown has been positively influenced by the rainfall and precipitation both in moving tracks of gravity center and time-lag effect especially for the growing season during the past thirteen years. The herbs and shrubs are inclined to be influenced by the change of rainfall and temperature, which is indicated by larger positive correlation coefficients at the 0.05 confidence level and shorter lagging time. For the soil moisture, the significantly negative relationship of NDV-PDI indicates that the growth and productivity of the vegetation are closely related to the short-term soil water, with the correlation coefficients reaching the maximum value of o.81 at Lag 0-1. Among the typicalvegetation types of plateau, the shrubs of low mountain, steppe and meadow are more sensitive to the change of soil moisture with coefficients of -0.95, -0.93, -0.92, respectively. These findings reveal that the spatial and temporal heterogeneity between NDVI and climatic factors are of great ecological significance and practical value for the protection of eco-environment in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.     

东昆仑得尔龙地区华力西期花岗岩地质地球化学特征及构造环境分析

东昆仑得尔龙地区花岗岩体侵位于二叠纪—三叠纪早期,岩石类型为黑云母花岗闪长岩、黑云母二长花岗岩、二云母二长花岗岩。早期次的黑云母花岗闪长岩中含有暗色的镁铁质矿物包体。SiO2含量为65.04%~73.47%,全碱含量为5.29%~8.52%,K2O/Na2O平均值为0.70,Al2O3平均为14.79%;亏损高场强元素Ta,Nb;∑REE平均为142.9×10-6,轻稀土元素相对富集,(La/Yb)N平均为17.15,δEu平均为0.71,表现为弱亏损。研究表明得尔龙地区花岗岩属次铝-过铝(高钾)钙碱性S型花岗岩,形成于后造山环境;岩浆源区的物质是多源的,主要为地壳物质的重熔,其次为幔源岩浆的底侵。     

天水谢家湾全新世环境变迁及人地关系演化

在野外详细观测的基础上，对天水谢家湾全新世黄土剖面以2cm为间距进行了连续采样，并对所有样品作了磁化率和粒度分析，结果综合反映出研究区自全新世以来，经历了早期升温、中期基本暖湿、晚期趋于干冷的气候环境演化阶段，其中全新世中期在总体温湿的大背景下，存在频繁的气候波动。以此为基础，结合对渭河文化的历史研究资料，探讨了区内约1万年以来的人地关系演化历史，指出人地关系的和谐与统一，对人类社会发展具有重要意义。     

近30年山东省沿海养殖用地遥感监测分析

山东省是我国的近海养殖大省,近30年来,养殖用地的数量和空间分布发生了较大的变化。本文选择山东省沿海养殖用地为研究对象,以TM/ETM+、CBERS、HJ-1等多源遥感影像数据为基础,运用人机交互解译的方法,提取了1980年代末、2000、2005和2010年共4个时期的养殖用地信息,并运用单一土地利用动态度、重心迁移、景观破碎度等模型,研究近30年山东沿海养殖用地的时空演变格局。结果表明:(1)山东沿海地区养殖区面积呈增加趋势,养殖用地的单一土地利用动态度在1980年代末至2000年最大,为16.95%,2000至2005年下降到5.63%,2005至2010年最小,为5.19%。(2)养殖用地变化表现出空间异质性,东营市养殖面积增长速度最快,共净增加608.22 km2,其次为滨州市和威海市,青岛市和潍坊市呈现为先增加后减小的趋势。(3)近30年养殖区的破碎度增加了4.5倍,养殖区的分布重心向西北方向迁移。(4)增加的养殖用地主要源于城乡工矿居民用地、水域和耕地,而减少的养殖用地主要转化为城乡工矿居民用地和水域。     

东昆仑黑海地区沙松乌拉组变质碎屑岩的地球化学特征及其对物质来源的约束

沙松乌拉组是整个东昆仑地区早古生代最早的海相沉积,是原特提斯洋盆打开时的沉积记录。对沙松乌拉组的物质来源进行研究,可以为恢复和反演东昆仑地区早古生代构造格局提供依据。本文在野外地质调查的基础上,对沙松乌拉组的岩石地球化学特征进行了研究。通过系列判别图解,得到沙松乌拉组的岩石类型为杂砂岩、岩屑砂岩,源岩主要为长英质及部分古老沉积组分;得到物源区大地构造环境主要为大陆岛弧和活动大陆边缘,少量物源来自被动大陆边缘。分析前期通过碎屑锆石法得到的小庙群、万宝沟群、晋宁期岩浆岩及白沙河组物源区的形成环境及岩石性质,与地球化学判别结果较为吻合。