Epiphytic orchids and their ecological niche under anthropogenic influence in central Himalayas,Nepal

The survival chance of epiphytic orchids today not only depends on the natural site conditions required by the orchids but also on anthropogenic changes in site conditions.This study answers two questions:(1) What is the ecological niche of the different epiphytic orchid species?(2) What are the ecological factors that threaten epiphytic orchid's population under anthropogenic disturbances? Our study area was the Kathmandu valley,Nepal,with its subtropical forest.We established 156 systematically selected sampling points in the Kathmandu area covering different types of ecosystems under human impacts such as densely populated area,agricultural land,mixed agricultural and settled area,old tree patches,and a natural forest in a national park.The ecological niche of the orchid species was analyzed with a principal component analysis(PCA).The correlations between the different site factors were statistically significant.Spearman's rank correlation matrices showed that the variables land-use intensities with altitude,and height with diameter in breast height(dbh) of host had the highest significant positive correlation coefficient(0.67 and 0.64 respectively).On the other hand,host bark p H and altitude as well as land use had a significantly strong negative correlation coefficient(-0.80 and-0.61,respectively).Different epiphytic orchid species interact differently with the given set ofenvironmental factors:for occurrence of Vanda cristata there is no single environmental factor of special influence,while for Rhynchostylis retusa high bark p H and high light availability are important.First two axis of the PCA explained more than 50% of the total variance.Most orchid species occupy a specific,narrow niche in this ecological space.The main causes of anthropogenic influence of orchid population in the Kathmandu Valley are loss of adequate host trees(species and size) and increasing air pollution,resulting in increasing host bark p H.     

Predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution of two threatened Himalayan medicinal plants of Liliaceae in Nepal

Predicting the potential distribution of medicinal plants in response to climate change is essential for their conservation and management. Contributing to the management program, this study aimed to predict the distribution of two threatened medicinal plants, Fritillaria cirrhosa and Lilium nepalense. The location of focal species gathered from herbarium specimen housed in different herbaria and online databases were geo-referenced and checked for spatial autocorrelation. The predictive environmental variables were selected, and MaxEnt software was used to model the current and future distributions of focal species. Four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) trajectories of the BCC-CSM1.1 model were used as the future (2050) projection layer. The MaxEnt modelling delineated the potential distribution of F. cirrhosa and L. nepalense. The current suitability is projected towards Central and Eastern Hilly/Mountainous regions. Both species gain maximum suitability in RCP 4.5 which decline towards other trajectories for L. nepalense. Overall, both the focal species shift towards the north-west, losing their potential habitat in hilly and lower mountainous regions by 2050 across all trajectories. Our results highlight the impact of future climate change on two threatened and valuable species. The results can be further useful to initiate farming of these medicinally and economically important species based on climatically suitable zone and for designing a germplasm conservation strategy.     

Review of studies on land use and land cover change in Nepal

Land use and land cover(LULC) in Nepal has undergone constant change over the past few decades due to major changes caused by anthropogenic and natural factors and their impacts on the national and regional environment and climate.This comprehensive review of past and present studies of land use and land cover change(LUCC) in Nepal concentrates on cropland, grassland, forest, snow/glacier cover and urban areas. While most small area studies have gathered data from different sources and research over a short period, across large areas most historical studies have been based on aerial photographs such as the Land Resource Mapping Project in 1986. The recent trend in studies in Nepal is to focus on new concepts and techniques to analyze LULC status on the basis of satellite imagery, with the help of geographic information system and remote sensing tools. Studies based on historical documents, and historical and recent spatial data on LULC, have clearly shown an increase in cropland areas in Nepal,and present results indicating different rates and magnitudes. A decrease in forest and snow/glacier coverage is reported in most studies. Little information is available on grassland and urban areas from past research. The unprecedented rate of urbanization in Nepal has led to significant urban land changes over the past 30 years. Meanwhile, long term historical LUCC research in Nepal is required for extensive work on spatially explicit reconstructions on the basis of historical and primary data collection, including LULC archives and drivers for future change.     

Climate change and its effects on runoff of Kaidu River,Xinjiang, China: A multiple time-scale analysis

This paper applied an integrated method combining grey relation analysis, wavelet analysis and statistical analysis to study climate change and its effects on runoff of the Kaidu River at multi-time scales. Maj or findings are as follows： 1） Climatic factors were ranked in the order of importance to annual runoff as average annual temperature, average temperature in autumn, average temperature in winter, annual precipitation, precipitation in flood season, av- erage temperature in summer, and average temperature in spring. The average annual temperature and annual precipitation were selected as the two representative factors that impact the annual runoff. 2） From the 32-year time scale, the annual runoff and the average annual temperature presented a significantly rising trend, whereas the annual precipitation showed little increase over the period of 1957-2002. By changing the time scale from 32-year to 4-year, we observed nonlinear trends with increasingly obvious oscillations for annual runoff, average annual temperature, and annual precipitation. 3） The changes of the runoff and the regional climate are closely related, indicating that the runoff change is the result of the regional climate changes. With time scales ranging from 32-year, 16-year, 8-year and to 4-year, there are highly significant linear correlations between the annual runoff and the average annual temperature and the annual precipitation.     

Integrated assessment of extreme climate and landuse change impact on sediment yield in a mountainous transboundary watershed of India and Pakistan

Assessment of climate and land use changes impact including extreme events on the sediment yield is vital for water and power stressed countries. Mangla Reservoir is the second-largest reservoir in Pakistan, and its capacity is being reduced due to rapid sedimentation and will be threatened under climate and land use changes. This paper discusses the consequences of climate and land use change on sediment yield at Mangla Dam using General Circulation Models(GCMs), Land Change Modeler(LCM), Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) model after calibration and validation.Results show that over the historical period temperature is observed to increase by 0.10 o C/decade and forest cover is observed to reduce to the level of only 16% in 2007. Nevertheless, owing to the forest conservation policy, the forest cover raised back to 27% in 2012. Anticipated land use maps by using LCM of 2025, 2050 and 2100 showed that the forest cover will be 33%, 39.2%, and, 53.7%, respectively. All seven GCMs projected the increase in temperature and five GCMs projected an increase in precipitation,however, two GCMs projected a decrease in precipitation. Owing to climate change, land use change and combined impact of climate and land use change on annual sediment yield(2011-2100) may vary from-42.9% to 39.4%, 0% to-27.3% and,-73%to 39.4%, respectively. Under climate change scenarios projected sediment yield is mainly linked with extreme events and is expected to increase with the increase in extreme events. Under land use change scenarios projected sediment yield is mainly linked with the forest cover and is expected to decrease with the increase in forest cover. The results of this study are beneficial for planners, watershed managers and policymakers to mitigate the impacts of climate and land use changes to enhance reservoir life by reducing the sediment yield.     

Effect of Aspect on Climate Variation in Mountain Ranges of Shennongjia Massif,Central China

The aim of this study was to better understand the mechanisms of regional climate variation in mountain ranges with contrasting aspects as mediated by changes in global climate. It may help predict trends of vegetation variations in native ecosystems in natural reserves. As measures of climate response, temperature and precipitation data from the north, east, and south-facing mountain ranges of Shennongjia Massif in the coldest and hottest months(January and July), different seasons(spring, summer, autumn, and winter) and each year were analyzed from a long-term dataset(1960 to 2003) to tested variations characteristics, temporal and spatial quantitative relationships of climates. The results showed that the average seasonal temperatures and precipitation in the north, east, and south aspects of the mountain ranges changed at different rates. The average seasonal temperatures change rate ranges in the north, east, and south-facing mountain ranges were from –0.0210℃/yr to 0.0143℃/yr, –0.0166℃/yr to 0.0311℃/yr, and –0.0290 ℃/yr to 0.0084℃/yr, respectively, and seasonal precipitation variation magnitude were from –1.4940 mm/yr to 0.6217 mm/yr, –1.6833 mm/yr to 2.6182 mm/yr, and –0.8567 mm/yr to 1.4077 mm/yr, respectively. The climates variation trend among the three mountain ranges were different in magnitude and direction, showing a complicated change of the climates in mountain ranges and some inconsistency with general trends in global climate change. The climate variations were significantly different and positively correlated cross mountain ranges, revealing that aspects significantly affected on climate variations and these variations resulted from a larger air circulation system, which were sensitive to global climate change. We conclude that location and terrain of aspect are the main factors affecting differences in climate variation among the mountain ranges with contrasting aspects.     

Assessing anthropogenic pressure and its impact on Hippophae salicifolia pockets in Central Himalaya, Uttarakhand

Natural habitat of Hippophae salicifolia in Central Himalaya is continuously being degraded due to habitat destruction and harvesting.Although logging is prohibited,habitat destruction has increased because of regular road construction,repairing and broadening activities.In addition,Hippophae resources are continuously being harvested by lopping(both partial and complete) for fuelwood,fodder and fruits in higher Himalayan region.This paper presents a detailed analysis of relationship between density,demographic structure,and harvesting of H.salicifolia growing pockets in the five major valleys(Gangotri,Yamunotri,Niti,Mana and Bhyundhar) of Uttarakhand in Central Himalaya,India.A total of 120 quadrats were laid randomly to study population structure,regeneration,sex ratio and lopping using quadrats of 100 m 2(24 in each valley) in Hippophae growing patches.Our study shows that the density,size distribution,and regeneration of Hippophae vary considerably among the major valleys.Trees in the Yamunotri valley have the highest density of large trees but the lowest density of seedlings.In contrast,there are few large trees but many seedlings in the Mana valley.The number and size of lopped trees also varied among the valleys.Lopping was greatest in Bhyundhar(11.4%) and Yamunotri(19.7%) and least in Niti(3.9%).The size of lopped trees differed substantially as well.In Bhyundhar,the largest trees were taken while saplings were taken in Yamunotri.Our study revealed that unsustainable harvesting from plants for fuel,fencing and fruits along with road broadening activities in Central Himalaya are the main cause of habitat destruction.Our research highlights the urgent need for in-situ and ex-situ conservation of Hippophae salicifolia so that it’s potential can be harnessed sustainably by rural hill societies for their socio-economic development.     

Regional ecological security and diagnosis of obstacle factors in underdeveloped regions: a case study in Yunnan Province,China

In order to clarify regional ecological security status and formation mechanism of regional ecological security barriers in underdeveloped regions of China, we took Yunnan province as a case to evaluate its regional ecological security by using entropy matter-element model, comprehensive index and GIS spatial method, and we diagnosed its obstacle factors through obstacle degree model. We found a low overall level of regional ecological security in Yunnan. Only Kunming fell into the good level, 68% of the regions were below the critical safe level. For the vast majority of regions in Yunnan, their regional ecological security was unstable. The indexes related to per capita resources, geological and topography environment, economic, and technology were at the unsafe or dangerous level. The indexes related to urban expansion, level of income, cultivated land quality were at the level of critical safety. The indexes concerning urban management capacity, air quality and water environment were at the good or ideal level. Yunnan’s regional ecological security was not good due to natural obstructive environment itself, simultaneously lower backward economic and social level restricted the ability of ecological security response to manage ragile ecological environment. The results of the composite index were roughly consistent with those of the entropy weight matter-element model. The mean values of the classification index, from high to low, were: the state index > the response index > the pressure index. The state index and the response index had a significant mutual promotion to each other. The regions with good composite index, state index and response index mainly distributed in the central regions of Yunnan Province. Spatial autocorrelation of regional ecological security level in Yunnan was not obvious. Water resources, economic and social development were main obstacle factors of the regional ecological security. When distinguishing with obstacle type, Kunming belonged to natural ecological environment barrier type, while other regions belonged to economic and social barrier type.     

近47年白银市气候变化及其对农业生产的影响分析

利用白银市4个代表站逐日平均气温、逐日地面最低温度，分别得到≥0℃初终日期、初终霜冻日期以及利用逐月平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温和逐月降水资料，对白银市近47a的气候变化特征进行分析，同时分析了气候变化对农业生产的影响，为充分利用变化了的农业气候资源，减少不利因素带来的影响提出了对策和建议。     

Paradigm and ecological implication of changing agricultural land-use: A case study from Govind Wildlife Sanctuary, Central Himalaya, India

The paper scrutinizes that the changes in any sub-system(i.e.agriculture,livestock and forest) have direct impact on biophysical and social processes in village ecosystem of the central Himalayan region.In view of this,we studied the changes in spatial patterns of agricultural land use and dependency of agroecosystem on forest and animal husbandry over a period of two decades.Based on data analysis it was found that the cultivation of some traditional crops has either been abandoned in the area or declined by 25%-85% due to introduction of cash crops viz.,potato,kidney bean and apple farming with acreage increased up to 51%-72% in the last three decades.Livestock population of different categories has declined drastically by 17%-75%,and has resulted shortage of farmyard manure,deterioration of soil quality and fertility which leads to un-sustainability of agriculture system.The changes in agrobiodiversity have led to the dramatic increase in soil loss and runoff from the croplands together with the increase pressure on forests.The economic evaluation of each crop showed higher monetary benefit from cash crops as compared to traditional crops.Among all the evaluated crops,the monetary output/input ratio was found highest(3.04) for kidney bean and lowest(1.26) for paddy.Changes in land use and management have improved household income but at the cost of forest degradation,less productive animal husbandry and loss of agrodiversity in the region.Therefore,there is an urgent need to bring desirable changes in agricultural policy,research,land use and efficient management of the resources for maintaining sustainability in agro and Himalayan forest ecosystem.     

Ecological consequences of land use change: Forest structure and regeneration across the forest-grassland ecotone in mountain pastures in Nepal

The ecotone, the spatial transition zone between two vegetation communities, is claimed to have more species than the adjoining communities. However, empirical studies do not always confirm higher richness at the ecotone. The ecotone position and structure are dynamic over time and space and it is driven by the changes in climate, land use or their interaction. In this context, we assessed the forest- grassland ecotone of temperate mountains in central Nepal by i） comparing species composition and richness across the ecotone, ii） analyzing if the forestgrassland ecotone is shifting towards the grassland center by colonizing them with trees, and iii） discussing the consequence of changed disturbance regime in the dynamics of this ecotone and the surrounding grasslands. We analyzed vegetation data sampled from belt transects laid across the forest- grassland ecotone in semi-natural grassland patches. Vegetation data consisting of species richness and composition, and size structure and regeneration of the two most dominant tree species, namely Rhododendron arboreum and Abies spectabilis, from the transects, were used to analyze the trend of the forest-grassland ecotone. Forest and grasslands were different in terms of floristic composition and diversity. Vascular plant speciesrichness linearly increased while moving from forest interior to grassland center. Spatial pattern of tree size structure and regeneration infers that forest boundary is advancing towards the grasslands at the expense of the grassland area, and tree establishment in the grasslands is part of a suceessional process. Temporally, tree establishment in grasslands started following the gradual decline in disturbance. We argue that local processes in terms of changed land use may best explain the phenomenon of ecotone shift and consequent forest expansion in these grasslands. We underpin the need for further research on the mechanism, rate and spatial extent of ecotone shift by using advaneed tools to understand the process indepth.     

Impacts of climate change on net primary productivity in arid and semiarid regions of China

In recent years, with the constant change in the global climate, the effect of climate factors on net primary productivity(NPP) has become a hot research topic. However, two opposing views have been presented in this research area: global NPP increases with global warming, and global NPP decreases with global warming. The main reasons for these two opposite results are the tremendous differences among seasonal and annual climate variables, and the growth of plants in accordance with these climate variables. Therefore, it will fail to fully clarify the relation between vegetation growth and climate changes by research that relies solely on annual data. With seasonal climate variables, we may clarify the relation between vegetation growth and climate changes more accurately. Our research examined the arid and semiarid areas in China(ASAC), which account for one quarter of the total area of China. The ecological environment of these areas is fragile and easily affected by human activities. We analyzed the influence of climate changes, especially the changes in seasonal climate variables, on NPP, with Climatic Research Unit(CRU) climatic data and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS) satellite remote data, for the years 2000–2010. The results indicate that: for annual climatic data, the percentage of the ASAC in which NPP is positively correlated with temperature is 66.11%, and 91.47% of the ASAC demonstrates a positive correlation between NPP and precipitation. Precipitation is more positively correlated with NPP than temperature in the ASAC. For seasonal climatic data, the correlation between NPP and spring temperature shows significant regional differences. Positive correlation areas are concentrated in the eastern portion of the ASAC, while the western section of the ASAC generally shows a negative correlation. However, in summer, most areas in the ASAC show a negative correlation between NPP and temperature. In autumn, precipitation is less important in the west, as opposed to the east, in which it is critically important. Temperatures in winter are a limiting factor for NPP throughout the region. The findings of this research not only underline the importance of seasonal climate variables for vegetation growth, but also suggest that the effects of seasonal climate variables on NPP should be explored further in related research in the future.     

HUMAN IMPACTS ON THE ECOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENT AND MODERN URBAN CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE LOESS PLATEAU

The influence of human activities on environment and climate change is the most conspicuous problem of the Loess Plateau, and it may be divided into two aspects: firstly, the excessive utilization of land by the human race causes the destruction of vegetation, and consequently large expanse of land is under desertification and the characteristics of the ground surface and the water and heat exchange on the ground surface have changed; secondly, the use of coal by industries produces a huge amount of carbon dioxide and trace elements, which enter into the atmosphere to cause air pollution.Data of 1951-1990 are collected from 69 meteorological stations on the Loess Plateau. After analysis, the decadal variations of temperature and rainfall in the last 40 years are obtained as follows: (1) In the arid zone of the north- west of the Loess Plateau, the increase in temperature is the largest. For the past 40 years, the annual mean temperature has increased 0.7-1.0 ℃ . In the semiarid zone of the middle part     

Land cover change in different altitudes of Guizhou-Guangxi karst mountain area,China: patterns and drivers

Topography, especially altitude, will influence the way, process and characteristics of land cover changes in mountainous area, simultaneously, the vertical difference of land cover changes will affect soil quality and regional ecological environment. Therefore, the gradient relationship analysis between land cover changes and altitude is very important for regional sustainability. This study investigated land cover dynamics based on land cover data from a typical mountainous area in the Guizhou-Guangxi karst mountain area, China, in 2000 and 2010, then explored the relationship between altitude and land cover change and analyzed different drivers of land cover change at different altitudes. Our findings are as follows. 1) From 2000 to 2010, the total area of land cover transition was 7167.04 km~2 or 2.8% of the region. The increasing area of build-up land(926.23 km~2) was larger than that of forest(859.38 km~2), suggesting that the urban construction speed was higher than that of reforestation. 2) Intensity of land cover transition in northwestern Guizhou-Guangxi karst mountain area was much larger than that of southeast part and their transition trend was also significantly different, which was consistent with regional population and economy. 3) Human activity was the most dramatic at altitudes between 0–500 m. For 500–1000 m, grassland mainly converted to forest and build-up land. Area of land cover transition was the greatest between 1000–1500 m, while above 1500 m, the transition of grassland was the most obvious. 4) The drivers of land cover change varied. Land cover change was positively correlated with gross domestic product and population density but was inversely related to relief amplitude. There were correlations between land cover change and distance to roads and rivers, and their correlations varied with altitude. By revealing patterns and causes of land cover changes in different altitudes, we hope to understand the vertical dependence of land cover changes, so as to improve land productivity and protect land ecological environment scientifically.     

Climate Change Impacts on Agroecosystems in China: Processes,Mechanisms and Prospects

Building a more resilient response system to climate change for sustainable development and reducing uncertainty in China’s food markets, requires access to historical research gaps and mapping future research progress for decision making. However, the lack of quantitative and objective analyses to ensure the stability and development of agroecosystems increases the complexity of agro-climatic mechanisms, which leads to uncertainty and undesirable consequences. In this paper, we review the chara...     

Role of debris flow on the change of ~(10)Be concentration in rapidly eroding watersheds: a case study on the Seti River,central Nepal

The concentration of cosmogenic 10 Be in riverine sediments has been widely used as a proxy for catchment-wide denudation rate(CWDR). One of the key assumptions of this approach is that sediments originating from sub-basins with different erosional histories are well mixed. A tragic debris flow occurred in the Seti River watershed, central Nepal,on May 5, 2012. This catastrophic debris flow was triggered by slope failure on the peak of Annapurna IV and resulted in many casualties in the lower Seti Khola. However, it provided an opportunity to test the assumption of equal mixing of sediments in an understudied rapidly eroding watershed. This study documents the CWDR of 10 Be to evaluate the extent of the influence of episodic erosional processes such as debris flow on the spatio-temporal redistribution of10 Be concentrations. Our data show that the debris flow caused little change in CWDR across the debris flow event. In addition to isotopic measurement, we calculated denudation rates by using the modeled concentrations in pre-and post-landslide sediments based on the local 10 Be production rate. The modeled result showed little change across the event,indicating that the debris flow in May 2012 played a minor role in sediment evacuation, despite the rapid erosion in the catchment. Our study concludes that although the 2012 event caused many casualties and severe damage, it was a low-magnitude, high frequency event.     

A transition from wood fuel to LPG and its impact on energy conservation and health in the Central Himalayas, India

The aim of the study was to evaluate the impacts of the transition from wood fuel to Liquefied Petroleum Gas(LPG) from energy use and health perspectives along an altitudinal gradient(viz.,lower altitude;middle altitude;and higher altitude) of the Central Himalayas.Empirical field study and questionnaire based survey was conducted forobtaining the data.A total of 20 households from each altitude were selected for obtaining reliable information on the actual quantity of fuelwood consumed.Of the 20 households,five households each based on the family size i.e.,small families(<4 members),medium(5-8 members) and large(>9 members) from all the altitudinal regions were selected.This was followed by an administration of a questionnaire on the quantity of fuelwood consumed.After the completion of the questionnaire survey,the data was validated using a weighted survey for the randomly selected households for obtaining precise information on the actual quantity of fuelwood consumed.Energy analysis is done with respect to the time spent on fuelwood collection and energy value of burning of per kg of fuelwood.Study indicates that declining biomass requirement from forests contributes significantly towards energy conservation,also has positive impact on human health.Per capita annual energy expenditure on collection of fuelwood is 752 MJ which is higher than any other activity in villages of Central Himalaya.The LPG substitution has contributed to energy saving which is equivalent to 2976-3,742 MJ per capita per year in middle and lower altitudes respectively.In the higher altitude the energy saving is calculated to be about 257 MJ per capita per year.Replacing fuelwood with LPG has made positive impact on society in terms of improving the health while reducing diseases that are caused due to indoor air pollution.     

Biodiversity and invasibility: Distribution patterns of invasive plant species in the Himalayas,Nepal

Invasive plant species are exerting a serious threat to biological diversity in many regions of the world. To understand plant invasions this study aims to test which of the two plant invasiveness hypotheses; ‘low native diversity' vs. ‘high native diversity', is supported by the regional distribution patterns of invasive plant species in the Himalayas,Nepal. This study is based on data retrieved from published literatures and herbarium specimens. The relationship between invasive plant species distribution patterns and that of native plant species is elucidated by scatter plots, as well as by generalized linear models. The native plant species and invasive plant species have similar distribution patterns and the maximum number of invasive plant species is found in the same altitudinal range where the highest richness for native tree species is found. There is a clear trend of higher invasive plant richness in regions where native tree species richness is relatively high.Consequently, the native plant richness is highest in the central phytogeographic region, followed by the eastern and the western regions, respectively. The invasive plant species also follows a similar trend.Additionally, the invasive plant species richness was positively correlated with anthropogenic factors such as human population density and the number of visiting tourists. This study supports the hypothesis that ‘high native diversity' supports or facilitates invasive plant species. Further, it indicates that nativeand invasive plant species may require similar natural conditions, but that the invasive plant species seem more dependent and influenced by anthropogenic disturbance factors.     

The impacts of permafrost change on NPP and implications: A case of the source regions of Yangtze and Yellow Rivers

This paper studies the relationship between net primary productivity (NPP) and annual average air temperature (GT) at 0cm above ground in permafrost regions by using revised Chikugo NPP model,cubic spline interpolating functions,and non-linear regression methods.The source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers were selected as the research areas.Results illustrate that:(1) There is significant non-linear relationship between NPP and GT in various typical years;(2) The maximum value of NPP is 6.17,5.87,7....