North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone activities influenced by the Indian Ocean Dipole mode

Using Joint Typhoon Warning Center tropical cyclone(TC)track data over the North Indian Ocean(NIO),National Centers for Environmental Prediction monthly reanalysis wind and outgoing long-wave radiation data,and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration sea surface temperature data from 1981 to 2010,spatiotemporal distributions of NIO TC activity and relationships with local sea surface temperature(SST)were studied with statistical diagnosis methods.Results of empirical orthogonal function(EOF)analysis of NIO TC occurrence frequency show that the EOF1 mode,which accounts for 16%of total variance,consistently represents variations of TC occurrence frequency over the whole NIO basin.However,spatial dis- tributions of EOF1 mode are not uniform,mainly indicating variations of westward-moving TCs in the Bay of Bengal.The prevailing TC activity variation mode oscillates significantly on a quasi-5 year interannual time scale.NIO TC activity is notably influenced by the Indian Ocean dipole(IOD)mode.When the Indian Ocean is in a positive(negative)phase of the IOD, NIO SST anomalies are warm in the west(east)and cold in the east(west),which can weaken(strengthen)convection over the Bay of Bengal and eastern Arabian Sea,and cause anticyclonic(cyclonic)atmospheric circulation anomalies at low levels. This results in less(more)TC genesis and reduced(increased)opportunities for TC occurrence in the NIO.In addition,positive(negative)IOD events may strengthen(weaken)westerly steering flow over the Bay of Bengal,which further leads to fewer(more)westward-moving TCs which appear in regions west of 90°E in that bay.     

A Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal model for significant wave height in the North Atlantic

Bad weather and rough seas continue to be a major cause for ship losses and is thus a significant contributor to the risk to maritime transportation. This stresses the importance of taking severe sea state conditions adequately into account in ship design and operation. Hence, there is a need for appropriate stochastic models describing the variability of sea states, taking into account long-term trends related to climate change. Various stochastic models of significant wave height are reported in the literature, but most are based on point measurements without considering spatial variations. As far as the authors are aware, no model of significant wave height to date exploits the flexible framework of Bayesian hierarchical space-time models. This framework allows modelling of complex dependence structures in space and time and incorporation of physical features and prior knowledge, yet at the same time remains intuitive and easily interpreted. This paper presents a Bayesian hierarchical space-time model for significant wave height. The model has been fitted by significant wave height data for an area in the North Atlantic ocean. The different components of the model will be outlined, and the results from applying the model to monthly and daily data will be discussed. Different model alternatives have been tried and long-term trends in the data have been identified for all model alternatives. Overall, these trends are in reasonable agreement and also agree fairly well with previous studies. Furthermore, a discussion of possible extensions to the model, e.g. incorporating regression terms with relevant meteorological data will be presented.     

SMOS reveals the signature of Indian Ocean Dipole events

The tropical Indian Ocean experiences an interannual mode of climatic variability, known as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The signature of this variability in ocean salinity is hypothesized based on modeling and assimilation studies, on account of scanty observations. Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite has been designed to take up the challenge of sea surface salinity remote sensing. We show that SMOS data can be used to infer the pattern of salinity variability linked with the IOD events. The core of maximum variability is located in the central tropical basin, south of the equator. This region is anomalously salty during the 2010 negative IOD event, and anomalously fresh during the 2011 positive IOD event. The peak-to-peak anomaly exceeds one salinity unit, between late 2010 and late 2011. In conjunction with other observational datasets, SMOS data allow us to draw the salt budget of the area. It turns out that the horizontal advection is the main driver of salinity anomalies. This finding is confirmed by the analysis of the outputs of a numerical model. This study shows that the advent of SMOS makes it feasible the quantitative assessment of the mechanisms of ocean surface salinity variability in the tropical basins, at interannual timescales.     

SMOS reveals the signature of Indian Ocean Dipole events

The tropical Indian Ocean experiences an interannual mode of climatic variability, known as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The signature of this variability in ocean salinity is hypothesized based on modeling and assimilation studies, on account of scanty observations. Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite has been designed to take up the challenge of sea surface salinity remote sensing. We show that SMOS data can be used to infer the pattern of salinity variability linked with the IOD events. The core of maximum variability is located in the central tropical basin, south of the equator. This region is anomalously salty during the 2010 negative IOD event, and anomalously fresh during the 2011 positive IOD event. The peak-to-peak anomaly exceeds one salinity unit, between late 2010 and late 2011. In conjunction with other observational datasets, SMOS data allow us to draw the salt budget of the area. It turns out that the horizontal advection is the main driver of salinity anomalies. This finding is confirmed by the analysis of the outputs of a numerical model. This study shows that the advent of SMOS makes it feasible the quantitative assessment of the mechanisms of ocean surface salinity variability in the tropical basins, at interannual timescales.

     

Predicting significant wave height with artificial neural networks in the South Atlantic Ocean: a hybrid approach

Ocean Dynamics - Accurate simulations of significant wave height (Hs) are extremely important for the safety of navigation, port operations, and oil and gas exploration. Thus, accurate forecasts of...     

南印度洋海温偶极子型振荡及其气候影响

印度洋海表温度（Sea Surface Temperature,简称SST）的方差分析和相关分析表明南印度洋也存在一个海温偶极子型振荡,并定义了一个南印度洋海表温度异常偶极子指数.夏、秋季（南半球冬、春）的南印度洋偶极子指数与后期热带500hPa和100hPa高度场异常有显著而持续的相关,在冬、春达到最大,并可以持续到次年夏、秋.前期夏、秋季节的南印度洋偶极模对次年我国大陆东部夏季降水异常有显著的影响,对应偶极子正位相,次年夏季印度洋、南海（东亚）夏季风偏弱;副高加强且南撤、西伸,南亚高压偏强且位置偏东,易形成我国长江流域降水偏多,华南降水偏少;负位相年反之.后期冬季西太平洋暖池是联系南印度洋偶极子与次年我国夏季降水异常关系的一条重要途径.南印度洋偶极子表现出了明显的独立于ENSO（El Nio-Southern Oscillation,简称ENSO）的特征.     

The role of initial signals in the tropical Pacific Ocean in predictions of negative Indian Ocean Dipole events

Using reanalysis data, the role of initial signals in the tropical Pacific Ocean in predictions of negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events were analyzed. It was found that the summer predictability barrier (SPB) phenomenon exists in predictions, which is closely related to initial sea temperature errors in the tropical Pacific Ocean, with type-1 initial errors presenting a significant west-east dipole pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and type-2 initial errors showing the opposite spatial pattern. In contrast, SPB-related initial sea temperature errors in the tropical Indian Ocean are relatively small. The initial errors in the tropical Pacific Ocean induce anomalous winds in the tropical Indian Ocean by modulating the Walker circulation in the tropical oceans. In the first half of the prediction year, the anomalous winds, combined with the climatological winds in the tropical Indian Ocean, induce a basin-wide mode of sea surface temperature (SST) errors in the tropical Indian Ocean. With the reversal of the climatological wind in the second half of the prediction year, a west-east dipole pattern of SST errors appears in the tropical Indian Ocean, which is further strengthened under the Bjerknes feedback, yielding a significant SPB. Moreover, two types of precursors were also identified: a significant west-east dipole pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean and relatively small temperature anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean. Under the combined effects of temperature anomalies in the tropical Indian and Pacific oceans, northwest wind anomalies appear in the tropical Indian Ocean, which induce a significant west-east dipole pattern of SST anomalies, and yield a negative IOD event.     

Roles of atmospheric variabilities in the formation of the Indian Ocean Dipole

Ocean Dynamics - Roles of atmospheric variabilities in the formation of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) were investigated using an ocean general circulation model and different atmospheric forcing...     

Interannual variability in the Biannual Rossby waves in the tropical Indian Ocean and its relation to Indian Ocean Dipole and El Nino forcing

The interannual variability of the tropical Indian Ocean is studied using Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) sea surface height anomalies (SSHA) and Hadley Centre Ice Sea Surface Temperature anomalies. Biannual Rossby waves (BRW) were observed along the 1.5° S and 10.5° S latitudes during the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) years. The SODA SSHA and its BRW components were comparable with those of Topex/Poseidon. The phase speed of BRW along 1.5° S is −28 cm/s, which is comparable with the theoretical speed of first mode baroclinic (equatorially trapped) Rossby waves. This is the first study to show that no such propagation is seen along 1.5° S during El Nino years in the absence of IOD. Thus the westward propagating downwelling BRW in the equatorial Indian Ocean is hypothesized as a potential predictor for IOD. These waves transport heat from the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean to west, long before the dipole formation. Along 10.5° S, the BRW formation mechanisms during the El Nino and IOD years were found to be different. The eastern boundary variations along 10.5° S, being localized, do not influence the ocean interior considerably. Major portion of the interannual variability of the thermocline, is caused by the Ekman pumping integrated along the characteristic lines of Rossby waves. The study provides evidence of internal dynamics in the IOD formation. The positive trend in the downwelling BRW (both in SODA and Topex/Poseidon) is of great concern, as it contributes to the Indian Ocean warming.     

Historical seismicity near Chagos: a complex deformation zone in the equatorial Indian Ocean

Over the last twenty years, Chagos Bank has a seismicity rate disproportionate to its supposed intraplate location. Earthquake relocation also shows a high seismicity rate in pre-WWSSN time (1912–1963), with seven events located off of the Central Indian Ridge, including large events in 1912 (M = 6.8) and 1944 (M = 7.2). This study uses the moment variance technique, a systematic search for the mechanism which best fits P, PP, SH, Love and Rayleigh amplitudes, to determine the focal mechanisms of two pre-WWSSN earthquakes. A test with a recent event of known mechanism demonstrates that accurate focal parameter determination is possible even when only a few good records are available. Moment variance analysis shows a thrust faulting mechanism for the 1944 event, northeast of Chagos Bank near the Chagos-Laccadive ridge, and a strike-slip focal mechanism for a smaller 1957 event west of Chagos Bank. The 1944 event, one of the largest oceanic “intraplate” earthquakes known (moment 1.4 × 10²⁷ dyne-cm), indicates that the Chagos seismicity reflects not an isolated occurrence of normal faulting as previously thought, but rather regional tectonic deformation extending northeast of Chagos Bank and including thrust, normal and strike-slip events. This seismicity and previously studied seismicity near the Ninetyeast Ridge and Central Indian Basin suggest a broad zone of deformation stretching across the equatorial Indian Ocean. This zone contains all known magnitude seven oceanic “intraplate” earthquakes not associated with subduction zones or continental margins, suggesting that elsewhere such extensive deformation occurs only along plate boundaries. This study proposes that a slow, diffuse plate boundary extends east from the Central Indian Ridge to the Ninetyeast Ridge and north to the Sumatra Trench. A recent plate motion study confirms this boundary and suggests that it separates the Australian plate from a single Indo-Arabian plate.     

The statistics of wave height and crest elevation during the December 2012 storm in the North Sea

This paper concerns new field measurements of wave height and crest elevation probability distributions as measured in the North Sea during a storm in December 2012. The water surface elevation was recorded by Saab WaveRadar REX instruments mounted on eight fixed-jacket platforms in addition to a Datawell Directional Waverider buoy. The storm generated an easterly sea state which peaked well in excess of the 100-year wave height for that direction in the region. Furthermore, 19 freak waves occurred during the storm according to the definition as reported by Haver (2000). The present study demonstrates that the significant steepness and spectral bandwidth during the storm remain almost constant. Consequently, there is little change in the commonly applied design wave height and crest elevation probability distributions throughout the storm. Whilst the bulk of the recorded data was in good agreement with the theoretical distributions, it was demonstrated that when the wind speed was larger than 25 m/s, the measured crest elevation lies above the second-order Forristall distribution.     

Charge distribution on the atmospheric aerosol over the North Atlantic and the Indian Ocean

The distribution of electric charge on the marine aerosol was determined near the sea surface of the Indian Ocean and the North Atlantic during the final stage of the Snellius II-expedition. Mean values for small ion concentrationsn ⁺=455 cm^–3 andn ^–=340 cm^–3 were found over the Atlantic, whilen ⁺=310 andn ^–=250 cm^–3 were the mean values over the Indian Ocean. The ration ⁺/n^– increased from 1.2 to 2.0 with decreasing wind velocity. At wind velocities below 5 m/s 75% of the net space charge near the ocean surface was found to be carried by small ions.     

Shear wave velocity structure of the upper mantle under the NW Indian Ocean

Shear wave velocity structure of the NW Indian ocean is analysed by using fundamental mode Rayleigh wave dispersion data of 67 events occurred during 1990–98 at the central Indian Ridge and Carlsberg Ridge and recorded at Hyderabad Geoscope station (HYB). These events provide a dense coverage of the NW Indian ocean and Chagos-Laccadive Ridge (CLR) in the back-azimuthal range of 192–253° with respect to HYB. The dispersion curves, corrected for continental and young ocean paths, indicate large variations in the shear wave velocity structure of the region. The group velocities along the CLR path support a typical aseismic ridge-type structure. However, the central region bounded between the Central Indian Ridge and India in the back-azimuth of 206–234° indicates a decrease in the group velocity by 0.1 km/s. Inversion of these data sets indicates presence of aseismic-ridge type lithospheric structure for CLR, a thin lithosphere and high velocity block in the depth range of 125–200 km for the central region, and a continental-type lithospheric structure for the northern-most part of the Indian ocean. It is inferred that the dynamic state of the upper mantle in this region has been significantly perturbed during the recent geological past.     

Excitation ofT waves in the Indian Ocean between Srilanka and southern India

T phases of three earthquakes from the Indian Ocean region, recorded by a short-period vertical-component seismic station network located in the vicinity of Kanyakumari on the southernmost tip of India, are studied. Two of these earthquakes are located west of 90°E ridge and one in the Nicobar Island region. However, seven other earthquakes which occurred 150–200 km south of Kanyakumari in the ocean did not produceT phases. An analysis ofT-waves (tertiary waves) travel time reveals the zone ofP-wave toT-wave conversion (i.e.,PT phase) region to coincide with the western continental slope of Srilanka. Further, it is observed that the disposition of the bathymetry between Srilanka and southern India strongly favours the downslope propagation mechanism ofT-wave travel to the southern coast of India through SOFAR channel. These observations are reported for the first time from India.     

Early spreading history of the Indian Ocean between India and Australia

A revised model of seafloor spreading between India and Australia from the inception of spreading 125 m.y. to the change to a new system at 90 m.y. stems from the wider recognition of the M-series of magnetic anomalies off the southwestern margin of Australia, from a revised pole of opening between Australia and Antarctica, and by the extension in the central Wharton Basin of the Late Cretaceous set of magnetic anomalies back to 34. The phase of spreading represented by the later anomalies has been extended back to 90 m.y. in order to give a resolved pole that describes the rotation of India from Australia consistent with the M-series anomalies, DSDP site ages, and fracture zone trends. An abandoned spreading ridge in the Cuvier Abyssal Plain indicates a ridge jump within the first ten million years of spreading. Elsewhere, two kinds of ridge jump (one to the continental margin of Australia or India, the other by propagation of the spreading ridge into adjacent compartments thereby causing them to fuse), are postulated to account for other observations.