On the impact of wind on the development of wave field during storm Britta

The observation of extreme waves at FINO 1 during storm Britta on the 1st November 2006 has initiated a series of research studies regarding the mechanisms behind. The roles of stability and the presence of the open cell structures have been previously investigated but not conclusive. To improve our understanding of these processes, which are essential for a good forecast of similarly important events offshore, this study revisits the development of storm Britta using an atmospheric and wave coupled modeling system, wind and wave measurements from ten stations across the North Sea, cloud images and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data. It is found here that a standard state-of-the-art model is capable of capturing the important characteristics of a major storm like Britta, including the storm path, storm peak wind speed, the open cells, and peak significant wave height (H _s ) for open sea. It was also demonstrated that the impact of the open cells has negligible contribution to the development of extreme H _s observed at FINO 1. At the same time, stability alone is not sufficient in explaining the development of extreme H _s . The controlling conditions for the development of Britta extreme H _s observed at FINO 1 are the persistent strong winds and a long and undisturbed fetch over a long period.     

Site Specific Ground Motion Modeling and Seismic Response Analysis for Microzonation of Baku,Azerbaijan

We investigated ground response for Baku (Azerbaijan) from two earthquakes of magnitude M6.3 occurred in Caspian Sea (characterized as a near event) and M7.5 in Shamakhi (characterized as a remote extreme event). S-wave velocity with the average shear wave velocity over the topmost 30 m of soil is obtained by experimental method from the V _P values measured for the soils. The downtown part of Baku city is characterized by low V_S30 values (< 250 m/s), related to sand, water-saturated sand, gravel-pebble, and limestone with clay. High surface PGA of 240 gal for the M7.5 event and of about 190 gal for the M6.3 event, and hence a high ground motion amplification, is observed in the shoreline area, through downtown, in the north-west, and in the east parts of Baku city with soft clays, loamy sands, gravel, sediments.     

Creepex of Kamchatka shallow earthquakes

Results of investigation of the lithosphere in the Kamchatka seismic focal zone from dynamic characteristics of earthquake records obtained at regional stations are presented. It is assumed that the specificity of the source zone can be estimated by the relation Cr = K _P ? bK _S ? c characterizing relative energies (energy classes, according to [Fedotov, 1972]) of short period transverse and longitudinal waves in the source. Azimuthal, spatial, and temporal variations in Cr and their relation to focal mechanisms are examined. Spatiotemporal variations in this parameter are shown to be caused by the influence of variations in the conditions in the source zone (its substance or process) on the radiation of P and S waves.     

Some Probabilistic and Statistical Properties of the Seismic Regime of Zemmouri (Algeria) Seismoactive Zone

Statistical tests have been used to adjust the Zemmouri seismic data using a distribution function. The Pareto law has been used and the probabilities of various expected earthquakes were computed. A mathematical expression giving the quantiles was established. The extreme values limiting law confirmed the accuracy of the adjustment method. Using the moment magnitude scale, a probabilistic model was made to predict the occurrences of strong earthquakes. The seismic structure has been characterized by the slope of the recurrence plot γ, fractal dimension D, concentration parameter K_sr, Hurst exponents H_r and H_t. The values of D, γ, K_sr, H_r, and H_t diminished many months before the principal seismic shock (M = 6.9) of the studied seismoactive zone has occurred. Three stages of the deformation of the geophysical medium are manifested in the variation of the coefficient G% of the clustering of minor seismic events.     

Heat transport variation due to change of North Pacific subtropical gyre interior flow during 1993–2012

Applying segment-wise altimetry-based gravest empirical mode method to expendable bathythermograph temperature, Argo salinity, and altimetric sea surface height data in March, June, and November from San Francisco to near Japan (30^° N, 145^° E) via Honolulu, we estimated the component of the heat transport variation caused by change in the southward interior geostrophic flow of the North Pacific subtropical gyre in the top 700 m layer during 1993–2012. The volume transport-weighted temperature (T_I) is strongly dependent on the season. The anomaly of T_I from the mean seasonal variation, whose standard deviation is 0.14^°C, was revealed to be caused mainly by change in the volume transport in a potential density layer of 25.0?25.5σ_??. The anomaly of T_I was observed to vary on a decadal or shorter, i.e., quasi-decadal (QD), timescale. The QD-scale variation of T_I had peaks in 1998 and 2007, equivalent to the reduction in the net heat transport by 6 and 10 TW, respectively, approximately 1 year before those of sea surface temperature (SST) in the warm pool region, east of the Philippines. This suggests that variation in T_I affects the warm pool SST through modification of the heat balance owing to the entrainment of southward transported water into the mixed layer.     

Correlation between foam-bubble size and drag coefficient in hurricane conditions

A recently proposed model of foam impact on the air–sea drag coefficient C _d has been employed for the estimation of the effective foam-bubble radius R _b variation with wind speed U₁₀ in hurricane conditions. The model relates C _d (U₁₀) with the effective roughness length Z _eff (U₁₀) represented as a sum of aerodynamic roughness lengths of the foam-free and foam-covered sea surfaces Z _w (U₁₀) and Z _f (U₁₀) weighted with the foam coverage coefficient α _f (U₁₀). This relation is treated for known phenomenological distributions C _d (U₁₀), Z _w (U₁₀), and α _f (U₁₀) at strong wind speeds as an inverse problem for the effective roughness parameter of foam-covered sea surface Z _f (U₁₀). The present study is aimed at the estimation of the effective roughness of the sea surface assuming that the measurement data for the effective drag coefficient are known. The effective foam-bubble size is found as a function of the wind speed.     

Earliest fossil fruit record of the genus Paliurus (Rhamnaceae) in Eastern Asia

The genus Paliurus is characterized by its distinctive orbicular-winged fruits and a trilocular (or bilocular) ovary. Macrofossil records suggested this genus was distributed widely in North America, Europe, and Asia during the Paleogene and Neogene, before its present limitation to Eurasia. In this study, we describe some Paliurus fossil winged fruits from the lower part of Youganwo Formation (middle Eocene) and Huangniuling Formation (late Eocene) of the Maoming Basin, South China. These fruits are recognized as Paliurus favonii Unger based on a detailed study on the fossil morphology and cuticle characteristics. This represents the earliest occurrence of Paliurus fossil fruits in eastern Asia, and to date is the world’s lowest latitude appearance for this genus. The most ancient records of Paliurus throughout the world are from the middle Eocene of North America and the late Eocene of Japan, leading some researchers to conclude the Paliurus may have originated in North America. Molecular data, however, do not support this hypothesis. The present Paliurus fossil fruits provide new evidence for the origin and phytogeographic history of this genus.     

Geomagnetically Induced Currents and Space Weather: Pi3 Pulsations and Extreme Values of Time Derivatives of the Geomagnetic Field’s Horizontal Components

The problem of estimating the time derivatives of the horizontal components of the geomagnetic field and forecasting the probability of the occurrence of perturbations that exceed a given threshold level (the over-threshold perturbations) arises in the applications concerned with the geomagnetically induced currents (GICs). In this work, we consider the temporal and spatial structure of the Pi3 pulsations with quasi-periods of 10² to 10³ s during which the auroral and subauroral stations of the IMAGE network record over-threshold values in the derivatives of the meridional (along the longitudinal circle) B_X component and latitudinal (along the latitudinal circle) B_Y component. The extreme |dB_X/dt| values mainly develop against the background of the Pi3 pulsations with a complex frequency content, whereas the extreme |dB_Y/dt| values appear when the buildup (decay) phases of the bay-like disturbance associated with the evolution of a substorm coincide with the respective phases of the field of pulsations. The conditions under which the derivatives |dB_X/dt| and |dB_Y/dt| reach their over-threshold values are studied for subauroral latitudes by the technique of superposed epoch analysis. The extreme values of the derivatives most frequently occur during the main phase of moderate magnetic storms or beyond the storm—during high substorm activity under the conditions of a negative vertical component of the interplanetary magnetic field. The probability of the occurrence of over-threshold values increases at high amplitudes of the Pi3 pulsations and depends on their spectral content. The problem of analyzing and forecasting the over-threshold |dB_Y/dt| perturbations is complicated by the fact that the scale of the perturbations is small along the lines of latitude and large along the meridians. This can result in GIC excitation in the North–South oriented electric power lines by the geomagnetic perturbations localized within a narrow band in longitude which can be missed during the measurements.     

The vertical distribution characteristics of integral turbulence statistics in the atmospheric boundary layer over an urban area in Beijing

Turbulence data(2008–2012) from a 325 m meteorological tower in Beijing, which consisted of three layers(47,140, and 280 m), was used to analyze the vertical distribution characteristics of turbulent transfer over Beijing city according to similarity theory. The conclusions were as follows.(1) Normalized standard deviations of wind speeds/ui * were plotted as a function only of a local stability parameter. The values under near-neutral conditions were 2.15, 1.61, and 1.19 at 47 m, 2.39, 1.75,and 1.21 at 140 m, and 2.51, 1.77, and 1.30 at 280 m, showing a clear increase with height. The normalized standard deviation of wind components fitted the 1/3 law under unstable stratification conditions and decreased with height under both stable and unstable conditions.(2) The normalized standard deviation of temperature fitted the.1/3 law in the free convection limit, but was quite scattered with different characteristics under near-neutral conditions. The normalized standard deviations of humidity and the CO2 concentration fitted the.1/3 law under unstable conditions, and remained constant under near-neutral and stable stratification. The normalized standard deviation of scalars, i.e., temperature, humidity, and CO2 concentration, all increased with height.(3) Compared with momentum, and the water vapor and CO2 concentrations, the turbulence correlation coefficient for heat was smaller under near-neutral conditions, but larger under both stable and unstable conditions. A dissimilarity between heat, and the water vapor and CO2 concentrations was observed in urban areas. The relative correlation coefficients between heat and each of momentum, humidity, and CO2 concentration(|rwT/ruw|, |rwT/rwc| and |rwT/ruq|) in the lower layers were always larger than in higher layers, except for the relative correlation coefficient between heat and humidity in an unstable stratification. Therefore, the ratio between heat and each of momentum, humidity, and CO2 concentration decreased with height.     

Ionospheric Time-delay over Akure Using Global Positioning System Observations

Ionospheric time delay (VΔt) variability using Global Positioning System (GPS) data over Akure (7.15°N, 5.12°E), Nigeria, has been studied. The observed variability of VΔt in comparison to older results of vertical total electron content (TEC) across similar regions has shown equivalent signatures. Higher monthly mean values of VΔt (MVΔt) were observed during daytime as compared to nighttime (pre- and post-midnight) hours in all months. The highest MVΔt observed in September during daytime hours range between ~6 and ~21 ns (~1.80 and ~6.30 m) and at post-midnight, they are in the range of ~1 to ~6 ns (~0.3 to ~1.80 m). The possible mechanisms responsible for this variability were discussed. Seasonal VΔt were investigated as well.     

Coastal sea level variability in the US West Coast Ocean Forecast System (WCOFS)

Sea level variability along the US West Coast is analyzed using multi-year time series records from tide gauges and a high-resolution regional ocean model, the base of the West Coast Ocean Forecast System (WCOFS). One of the metrics utilized is the frequency of occurrences when model prediction is within 0.15 m from the observed sea level, F. A target level of F?=?90% is set by an operational agency. A combination of the tidal sea level from a shallow water inverse model, inverted barometer (IB) term computed using surface air pressure from a mesoscale atmospheric model, and low-pass filtered sea level from WCOFS representing the effect of coastal ocean dynamics (DYN) provides the most straightforward approach to reaching levels F>80%. The IB and DYN components each add between 5 and 15% to F. Given the importance of the DYN term bringing F closer to the operational requirement and its role as an indicator of the coastal ocean processes on scales from days to interannual, additional verification of the WCOFS subtidal sea level is provided in terms of the model-data correlation, standard deviation of the band-pass filtered (2–60 days) time series, the annual cycle amplitude, and alongshore sea level coherence in the range of 5–120-day periods. Model-data correlation in sea level increases from south to north along the US coast. The rms amplitude of model sea level variability in the 2–60-day band and its annual amplitude are weaker than observed north of 42 N, in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) coast region. The alongshore coherence amplitude and phase patterns are similar in the model and observations. Availability of the multi-year model solution allows computation and analysis of spatial maps of the coherence amplitude. For a reference location in the Southern California Bight, relatively short-period sea level motions (near 10 days) are incoherent with those north of the Santa Barbara Channel (in part, due to coastal trapped wave scattering and/or dissipation). At a range of periods around 60 days, the coastal sea level in Southern California is coherent with the sea surface height (SSH) variability over the shelf break in Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia, more than with the coastal SSH at the same latitudes.     

The <Emphasis Type="Italic">Q</Emphasis>-factor estimates for the crust and upper mantle in the vicinity of Sochi and Anapa (North Caucasus)

The regularities in the radiation and propagation of seismic waves in the regions of the North Caucasus are analyzed for estimating the ground motion parameters during the probable future strong earthquakes. Based on the records of the regional earthquakes with magnitudes M_W ~ 3.9–5.6 within epicentral distances up to ~300 km obtained during the period of digital measurements at the Sochi and Anapa seismic stations, the Q-factors in the vicinities of these sites are estimated at ~55 f^0.9 and ~90f^0.7, respectively. The estimates were obtained by the coda normalization method developed by Aki, Rautian, and other authors. This method is based on the phenomenon of suppression of the earthquake (source) effects and local (site) responses by coda waves in the S-wave spectra. The obtained Q-factor estimates can be used for forecasting the ground shaking parameters for the future probable strong earthquakes in the North Caucasus in the vicinities of Sochi and Anapa.     

Water intrusions and particle signatures in the Black Sea: a Biogeochemical-Argo float investigation

Continuous observations during 3 years with a vertical resolution of 1 dbar from two Bio-Argo floats in the Black Sea that were equipped with oxygen optodes, chlorophyll fluorometers, and backscattering sensors are analyzed. The particle backscattering coefficient, b _bp provides a proxy for the concentration of suspended particles. The observations clearly identify thermal and b _bp intrusions down to ~700–800 m in the Bosporus inflow area. In this area, b _bp is more than five times larger than elsewhere, which could indicate bacterial abundance and possible biological involvement in the precipitation of Mn-containing particles. The b _bp anomalies become much shallower than the temperature anomalies with increasing distance to the east of the strait. Their maxima are located between the onset of the suboxic zone and the upper part of the anoxic layer. Unlike well-known intrusions that are caused by inflow, open ocean intrusions are shallower and often characterized by multiple layers of backscatter maxima with thicknesses of only 15–20 m. The ratio between backscattering coefficients measured at two wavelengths, which gives a proxy for particle size, shows that the relative amount of larger size particles in the anoxic layer increases with depth. The particle concentrations and their size distribution display different vertical variability, which indicates the complex transformation of biological matter. The lower concentration of particles and lower chlorophyll-a during the extremely warm 2016 reveals an overall positive correlation between the two properties. The trends in the particle backscattering coefficient in the suboxic zone during 2013–2016 could indirectly reveal a biogeochemical response to temperature changes.     

On a possible origin of the anomalous effects that were observed during the May 24, 2013 earthquake in the Sea of Okhotsk

The deep-focus Sea of Okhotsk earthquake that occurred on May 24, 2013 (h = 630 km, M _w = 8.3) was accompanied by anomalous effects that were unknown previously. A combined analysis of published data concerning the source rupture evolution and some features of the deep structure provided an explanation of some anomalous effects, such as the large number of aftershocks and the low level of ground shaking in the epicentral area. However, GPS observations revealed high coseismic vertical displacements in the area. The seafloor uplift in the Sea of Okhotsk and the adjacent coasts was 3–12 mm, peaking at the approximate center of the sea, while Kamchatka and the North Kuril Islands subsided by 3–18 mm, peaking at the Apacha station 190 km east of the earthquake epicenter. These maximum estimates are 1.2–1.8 times the analogous values (10 mm) for the Chile mega-earthquake of May 20, 1960 (M _w ~ 9.5). It is known that the large distances at which ground shaking is felt during deep-focus earthquakes are due to the fact that the body waves travel through the high-Q lower mantle. However, this does not explain the paradox of the present earthquake in the Sea of Okhotsk, viz., a constant intensity of shaking (two grades) in the range of epicentral distances between 1300 and 9500 km. The explanation requires consideration of the earth’s free oscillations excited by the earthquake.     

A first-order seismotectonic regionalization of Mexico for seismic hazard and risk estimation

The purpose of this work is to define a seismic regionalization of Mexico for seismic hazard and risk analyses. This seismic regionalization is based on seismic, geologic, and tectonic characteristics. To this end, a seismic catalog was compiled using the more reliable sources available. The catalog was made homogeneous in magnitude in order to avoid the differences in the way this parameter is reported by various agencies. Instead of using a linear regression to converts from m _b and M _d to M _s or M _w , using only events for which estimates of both magnitudes are available (i.e., paired data), we used the frequency-magnitude relations relying on the a and b values of the Gutenberg-Richter relation. The seismic regions are divided into three main categories: seismicity associated with the subduction process along the Pacific coast of Mexico, in-slab events within the down-going COC and RIV plates, and crustal seismicity associated to various geologic and tectonic regions. In total, 18 seismic regions were identified and delimited. For each, the a and b values of the Gutenberg-Richter relation were determined using a maximum likelihood estimation. The a and b parameters were repeatedly estimated as a function of time for each region, in order to confirm their reliability and stability. The recurrence times predicted by the resulting Gutenberg-Richter relations obtained are compared with the observed recurrence times of the larger events in each region of both historical and instrumental earthquakes.     

Variation of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Q</Emphasis> value before and after the 1999 Xiuyan,Liaoning Province, <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis>=5.4 earthquake on the basis of analysis on attenuation dispersion of P waves

A method for determining medium quality factor is developed on the basis of analyzing the attenuation dispersion of the arrived first period P wave. In order to enhance signal to noise ratio, improve the resolution in measurement and reduce systematic error we applied the data resampling technique. The group velocity delay of P wave was derived by using an improved multi-filtering method. Based on a linear viscoelastic relaxation model we deduced the medium quality factor Q _m, and associated error with 95% confidence level. Applying the method to the seismic record of the Xiuyan M=5.4 earthquake sequences we obtained the following result: (1) High Q _m started to appear from Nov. 9, 1999. The events giving the deduced high Q _m value clustered in a region with their epicenter distances being between 32 and 46 km to the Yingkou station. This Q _m versus distance observation obviously deviates from the normal trend of Q _m linearly increasing with distance. (2) The average Q _m before the 29 Dec. 1999 M=5.4 earthquake is 460, while the average Q _m between the M=5.4 event and the 12 Jan. 2000 M=5.1 earthquake is 391, and the average Q _m after the M=5.1 event is 204.     

Deghosting towed streamer data in τ/p domain based on rough sea surface reflectivity

Currently, the deghosting of towed streamer seismic data assumes a flat sea level and a sea-surface reflection coefficient of ?1; this decreases the precision of deghosting. A new method that considers the rough sea surface is proposed to suppress ghost reflections. The proposed deghosting method obtains the rough sea surface reflection coefficient using Gaussian statistics, and calculates the optimized deghosting operator in the τ/p domain. The proposed method is closer to the actual sea conditions, offers an improved deghosting operator, removes the ghost reflections from marine towed seismic data, widens the bandwidth and restores the low-frequency information, and finally improves the signal-tonoise ratio and resolution of the seismic data.     

Probabilistic aftershock hazard analysis,two case studies in West and Northwest Iran

Aftershock hazard maps contain the essential information for search and rescue process, and re-occupation after a main-shock. Accordingly, the main purposes of this article are to study the aftershock decay parameters and to estimate the expected high-frequency ground motions (i.e., Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA)) for recent large earthquakes in the Iranian plateau. For this aim, the Ahar-Varzaghan doublet earthquake (August 11, 2012; M _N =6.5, M _N =6.3), and the Ilam (Murmuri) earthquake (August 18, 2014 ; M _N =6.2) have been selected. The earthquake catalogue has been collected based on the Gardner and Knopoff (Bull Seismol Soc Am 64(5), 1363-1367, 1974) temporal and spatial windowing technique. The magnitude of completeness and the seismicity parameters (a,??b) and the modified Omori law parameters (P,??K,??C) have been determined for these two earthquakes in the 14, 30, and 60 days after the mainshocks. Also, the temporal changes of parameters (a,??b,??P,??K,??C) have been studied. The aftershock hazard maps for the probability of exceedance (33%) have been computed in the time periods of 14, 30, and 60 days after the Ahar-Varzaghan and Ilam (Murmuri) earthquakes. For calculating the expected PGA of aftershocks, the regional and global ground motion prediction equations have been utilized. Amplification factor based on the site classes has also been implied in the calculation of PGA. These aftershock hazard maps show an agreement between the PGAs of large aftershocks and the forecasted PGAs. Also, the significant role of b parameter in the Ilam (Murmuri) probabilistic aftershock hazard maps has been investigated.     

A Morphostructural Zoning of the Mountainous Crimea and the Possible Locations of Future Earthquakes

The locations of possible earthquake occurrence (magnitudes M ≥ 6) have been determined for mountainous Crimea and the adjacent sea shelf, including the continental slope zone. The earthquake-generating structures were assumed to be intersections of morphostructural lineaments as found by morphostructural zoning. The measurement of geological and geophysical characteristics was followed by applying a decision rule that was derived previously using the CORA-3 pattern recognition algorithm in order to find possible locations of M ≥ 6 earthquakes in the Caucasus. The results corroborate the high seismic potential for the Yalta area where two events with magnitudes of 6.0 and 6.8 occurred in 1927, as well as indicating the possibility of M ≥ 6 earthquakes in other areas in mountainous Crimea and in the adjacent Black Sea area where no such events have yet been recorded.