On the predictability of high water level along the US East Coast: can the Florida Current measurement be an indicator for flooding caused by remote forcing?

Recent studies show that in addition to wind and air pressure effects, a significant portion of the variability of coastal sea level (CSL) along the US East Coast can be attributed to non-local factors such as variations in the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic circulation; these variations can cause unpredictable coastal flooding. The Florida Current transport (FCT) measurement across the Florida Straits monitors those variations, and thus, the study evaluated the potential of using the FCT as an indicator for anomalously high water level along the coast. Hourly water level data from 12 tide gauge stations over 12 years are used to construct records of maximum daily water levels (MDWL) that are compared with the daily FCT data. An empirical mode decomposition (EMD) approach is used to divide the data into high-frequency modes (periods T < ～30 days), middle-frequency modes (～30 days < T < ～90 days), and low-frequency modes (～90 days < T < ～1 year). Two predictive measures are tested: FCT and FCT change (FCC). FCT is anti-correlated with MDWL in high-frequency modes but positively correlated with MDWL in low-frequency modes. FCC on the other hand is always anti-correlated with MDWL for all frequency bands, and the high water signal lags behind FCC for almost all stations, thus providing a potential predictive skill (i.e., whenever a weakening trend is detected in the FCT, anomalously high water is expected along the coast over the next few days). The MDWL-FCT correlation in the high-frequency modes is maximum in the lower Mid-Atlantic Bight, suggesting influence from the meandering Gulf Stream after it separates from the coast. However, the correlation in low-frequency modes is maximum in the South Atlantic Bight, suggesting impact from variations in the wind pattern over subtropical regions. The middle-frequency and low-frequency modes of the FCT seem to provide the best predictor for medium to large flooding events; it is estimated that ～10–25% of the sea level variability in those modes can be attributed to variations in the FCT. An example from Hurricane Joaquin (September–October, 2015) demonstrates how an offshore storm that never made landfall can cause a weakening of the FCT and unexpected high water level and flooding along the US East Coast. A regression-prediction model based on the MDWL-FCT correlation shows some skill in estimating high water levels during past storms; the water level prediction is more accurate for slow-moving and offshore storms than it is for fast-moving storms. The study can help to improve water level prediction since current storm surge models rely on local wind but may ignore remote forcing.     

A modeling study of the role that bottom topography plays in Gulf Stream dynamics and in influencing the tilt of mean sea level along the US East Coast

Two aspects of the interactions between the Gulf Stream (GS) and the bottom topography are investigated: 1. the spatial variations associated with the north-south tilt of mean sea level along the US East Coast and 2. the high-frequency temporal variations of coastal sea level (CSL) that are related to Gulf Stream dynamics. A regional ocean circulation model is used to assess the role of topography; this is done by conducting numerical simulations of the GS with two different topographies–one case with a realistic topography and another case with an idealized smooth topography that neglects the details of the coastline and the very deep ocean. High-frequency oscillations (with a 5-day period) in the zonal wind and in the GS transport are imposed on the model; the source of the GS variability is either the Florida Current (FC) in the south or the Slope Current (SC) in the north. The results demonstrate that the abrupt change of topography at Cape Hatteras, near the point where the GS separates from the coast, amplifies the northward downward mean sea level tilt along the coast there. The results suggest that idealized or coarse resolution models that do not resolve the details of the coastline may underestimate the difference between the higher mean sea level in the South Atlantic Bight (SAB) and the lower mean sea level in the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB). Imposed variations in the model’s GS transport can generate coherent sea level variability along the coast, similar to the observations. However, when the bottom topography in the model is modified (or not well resolved), the shape of the coastline and the continental shelf influence the propagation of coastal-trapped waves and impact the CSL variability. The results can explain the different characteristics of sea level variability in the SAB and in the MAB and help understand unexpected water level anomalies and flooding related to remote influence of the GS.     

Remote forcing of water levels by tropical cyclones in southwest Australia

Tropical cyclones (termed hurricanes and typhoons in other regions), are extreme events associated with strong winds, torrential rain and storm surges (in coastal areas) and cause extensive damage as a result of strong winds and flooding (caused by either heavy rainfall or ocean storm surges) in the immediate area of impact. The eastern Indian Ocean, particularly in the northwest region of Australia, is impacted by up to 10 tropical cyclones during the cyclone season, although direct impact of cyclones along the west and southwest coastlines is rare. However, the sub-tidal frequency component of sea level records along the west and south coasts of Western Australia indicates lagged correspondence with the occurrence of tropical cyclones. It is demonstrated that the tropical cyclones generate a continental shelf wave which travels along the west and south coasts of Australia up to 3500 km with speeds of 450–500 km day⁻¹ (5.2–5.8 ms⁻¹) with maximum trough to crest wave height of 0.63 m, comparable with the mean daily tidal range in the region. The shelf wave is identified in the coastal sea level records, initially as a decrease in water level, 1–2 days after the passage of the cyclone and has a period of influence up to 10 days. Amplitude of the shelf wave was strongly affected by the path of the tropical cyclone, with cyclones travelling parallel to the west coast typically producing the most significant signal due to resonance and superposition with local forcing. Analysis of water levels from Port Hedland, Geraldton, Fremantle and Albany together with cyclone paths over a ten year period (1988–1998) indicated that the tropical cyclones paths may be classified into 6 different types based on the amplitude of the wave.     

Magnitude of Hurricane Ike storm surge sedimentation: implications for coastal marsh aggradation

There is a paucity of information on the regional distribution and magnitude of hurricane storm surge sedimentation. This study assesses the spatial extent and magnitude of Hurricane Ike's (2008) storm surge sedimentation and discusses implications for the role of hurricanes in marsh aggradation. The characteristics of the storm surge deposit, including thickness, inland penetration, volume and mass, were determined for 15 transects across marshes bordering the Gulf of Mexico in south‐eastern Texas and south‐western Louisiana. The deposit is up to 0·85 m thick, extends up to 3·6 km inland, and has an estimated volume of about 13·7 million m³ and an estimated mass of about 16·2 million metric tons. This level of sedimentation is one to two orders of magnitude larger than other potential sources of marsh sedimentation, including annual riverine inputs and inputs from alongshore sediment transport. The study findings add support to a growing body of evidence that hurricanes may be the predominant sediment source for long‐term aggradation of many coastal marshes bordering the Gulf of Mexico. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Numerical investigation of an oceanic resonant regime induced by hurricane winds

The oceanic mixed layer (OML) response to an idealized hurricane with different propagation speeds is investigated using a two-layer reduced gravity ocean model. First, the model performances are examined with respect to available observations relative to Hurricane Frances (2004). Then, 11 idealized simulations are performed with a Holland (Mon Weather Rev 108(8):1212–1218, 1980) symmetric wind profile as surface forcing with storm propagation speeds ranging from 2 to 12 m s⁻¹. By varying this parameter, the phasing between atmospheric and oceanic scales is modified. Consequently, it leads to different momentum exchanges between the hurricane and the OML and to various oceanic responses. The present study determines how OML momentum and heat budgets depend on this parameter. The kinetic energy flux due to surface wind stress is found to strongly depend on the propagation speed and on the cross-track distance from the hurricane center. A resonant regime between surface winds and near-inertial currents is clearly identified. This regime maximizes locally the energy flux into the OML. For fast-moving hurricanes (>6 m s⁻¹), the ratio of kinetic energy converted into turbulence depends only on the wind stress energy input. For slow-moving hurricanes (<6 m s⁻¹), the upwelling induced by current divergence enhances this conversion by shallowing the OML depth. Regarding the thermodynamic response, two regimes are identified with respect to the propagation speed. For slow-moving hurricanes, the upwelling combined with a sharp temperature gradient at the OML base formed in the leading part of the storm maximizes the oceanic heat loss. For fast propagation speeds, the resonance mechanism sets up the cold wake on the right side of the hurricane track. These results suggest that the propagation speed is a parameter as important as the surface wind speed to accurately describe the oceanic response to a moving hurricane.     

Ice storms,tree throw,and hillslope sediment transport in northern hardwood forests

In December 2008, 694 trees uprooted within a 108 ha (1·08 km²) watershed in central Massachusetts due to a severe ice storm, resulting in the displacement of ~1300 m³ of root material, unconsolidated sediment, and fractured bedrock. Overall, we find that uprooting and tree throw is often grouped in clusters and cascades; conifers displace more material than deciduous trees; areas with abundant mature hemlock and steep slopes are more susceptible to tree throw, with clusters as dense as 125 per hectare; and failure is predominantly downhill, suggesting that ice storms promote efficient downslope hillslope sediment transport in northern hardwood forests. Combining the recurrence interval of severe storms in New England (20–75 years) with the forest response presented here, we calculate a sediment transport rate of 2–5 × 10^?5 m³ m^?1 a^?1 averaged over the entire watershed. Forest susceptibility to tree throw differed based on location in the watershed; some areas experienced up to ~30× higher than average sediment transport rates, while others experienced no tree throw. Two severe storms following the 2008 ice storm (hurricane in 2011; snow storm in October 2012) did not result in significant tree throw within the study area, highlighting that the coupling of storm severity and forest susceptibility controls the amount of tree throw during a given forest disturbance. In addition to recent tree throw from the 2008 ice storm, widespread pit and mound microtopography in the study area indicates that tree throw is a recurrent process in this landscape. Two factors emerge that will influence future ice storms related hillslope sediment transport in the steep forested hillslopes of New England: regional climate gradients and changing climate determine the size, intensity and recurrence of ice storms; forest management practices and health control the tree age and type. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Air–sea interactions during strong winter extratropical storms

A high-resolution, regional coupled atmosphere–ocean model is used to investigate strong air–sea interactions during a rapidly developing extratropical cyclone (ETC) off the east coast of the USA. In this two-way coupled system, surface momentum and heat fluxes derived from the Weather Research and Forecasting model and sea surface temperature (SST) from the Regional Ocean Modeling System are exchanged via the Model Coupling Toolkit. Comparisons are made between the modeled and observed wind velocity, sea level pressure, 10 m air temperature, and sea surface temperature time series, as well as a comparison between the model and one glider transect. Vertical profiles of modeled air temperature and winds in the marine atmospheric boundary layer and temperature variations in the upper ocean during a 3-day storm period are examined at various cross-shelf transects along the eastern seaboard. It is found that the air–sea interactions near the Gulf Stream are important for generating and sustaining the ETC. In particular, locally enhanced winds over a warm sea (relative to the land temperature) induce large surface heat fluxes which cool the upper ocean by up to 2 °C, mainly during the cold air outbreak period after the storm passage. Detailed heat budget analyses show the ocean-to-atmosphere heat flux dominates the upper ocean heat content variations. Results clearly show that dynamic air–sea interactions affecting momentum and buoyancy flux exchanges in ETCs need to be resolved accurately in a coupled atmosphere–ocean modeling framework.     

Beach-fill equilibration and dune growth at two large-scale nourishment sites

Natural dune growth after nourishment is often observed, and such growth plays an important role in beach management for coastal communities. Nourishment sand equilibration after construction is another important topic for project planning and design. Large-scale nourishment projects at Nags Head (NC, USA) (completed in 2011) and Bridgehampton–Sagaponack (NY, USA) (completed in 2014) are under comparatively high-wave energy conditions and offer new insight regarding these topics. After nourishment, a natural beach and inshore morphology were produced with high rates of dune growth by eolian transport. At Nags Head, volumetric dune growth averaged 8 m³/m/yr over the first 5 years following project completion, while Bridgehampton–Sagaponack averaged 9 m³/m/yr over the first 3 post-project years. Results are compared with the Bagnold (1941) analytical model predictions of dune growth and are shown to correlate and decay closely with dry-sand beach width as the nourished profile equilibrates. The extra volume and elevation in the dunes have provided a higher level of storm protection and have helped the sites avoid any major damage to oceanfront properties during hurricanes or numerous severe winter storms.     

Hurricane-induced motions and interaction with ocean currents

Hurricanes produce mixing and flow divergences (and convergences) that alter the upper-ocean heat content (OHC), which in turn affects the storm. Ocean observations under a hurricane are rare, making it difficult to validate forecast models. Past research have mainly focused on OHC-changes by vertical mixing and tacitly assumed that horizontal transports are slowly varying. Moreover, effects of coastal boundaries on ocean responses to hurricanes are generally omitted. This work uses satellite data to detect and verify forecast isopycnal motions under hurricane Wilma (Oct/16–26/2005) in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. The model is then used to show that Wilma-induced convergences in northwestern Caribbean Sea produce increased Yucatan-Channel transport into the Gulf ahead of the storm, and the Yucatan–Loop Current front diverts most of this heat around the Loop. This response is distinct from that of an ocean without the Loop, for which warming is widespread north of the channel. These intricate ocean responses can impact hurricane predictions.     

Morphological response of a barrier island system on a catastrophic event: the AD 1634 North Sea storm

The AD 1634 North Sea storm is one of the most catastrophic storms along the Wadden Sea coast of Denmark. In this study we show how pre‐1634 storm morphology exerted a strong control on the resulting post‐storm coastal morphology. Erosional responses associated with the storm were barrier breaching, dune scarping and shoreface erosion and accretionary responses were washover deposition, shoreface healing and barrier‐island formation. Local sediment sources appeared to have a particularly strong influence on post‐storm coastal evolution and allowed a very rapid formation of a barrier shoal which resulted in several kilometres of coastal progradation. Sediment budgets suggest that formation of the barrier shoal was possible, but the sediment transport rates in the decades after the 1634 storm, must have been two to three times higher than present‐day rates. The study demonstrates that catastrophic storms are capable of moving large amounts of sediments over relatively short time‐periods and can create barrier shoals, whereas moderate storms mostly rework the shoal or barrier and create more local erosion and/or landward migration. Catastrophic storms substantially influence long‐term and large‐scale coastal evolution, and storms may positively contribute to the sediment budget and promote coastal progradation in coastal areas with longshore sediment convergence. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Twentieth-Century Sea Level Budget: Recent Progress and Challenges

For coastal areas, given the large and growing concentration of population and economic activity, as well as the importance of coastal ecosystems, sea level rise is one of the most damaging aspects of the warming climate. Huge progress in quantifying the cause of sea level rise and closure of sea level budget for the period since the 1990s has been made mainly due to the development of the global observing system for sea level components and total sea levels. We suggest that a large spread (1.2 ± 0.2–1.9 ± 0.3 mm year^?1) in estimates of sea level rise during the twentieth century from several reconstructions demonstrates the need for and importance of the rescue of historical observations from tide gauges, with a focus on the beginning of the twentieth century. Understanding the physical mechanisms contributing to sea level rise and controlling the variability of sea level over the past few 100 years are a challenging task. In this study, we provide an overview of the progress in understanding the cause of sea level rise during the twentieth century and highlight the main challenges facing the interdisciplinary sea level community in understanding the complex nature of sea level changes.     

Can sand dunes be used to study historic storm events?

Knowing the long‐term frequency of high magnitude storm events that cause coastal inundation is critical for present coastal management, especially in the context of rising sea levels and potentially increasing frequency and severity of storm events. Coastal sand dunes may provide a sedimentary archive of past storm events from which long‐term frequencies of large storms can be reconstructed. This study uses novel portable optically stimulated luminescence (POSL) profiles from coastal dunes to reconstruct the sedimentary archive of storm and surge activity for Norfolk, UK. Application of POSL profiling with supporting luminescence ages and particle size analysis to coastal dunes provides not only information of dunefield evolution but also on past coastal storms. In this study, seven storm events, two major, were identified from the dune archive spanning the last 140 years. These appear to correspond to historical reports of major storm surges. Dunes appear to be only recording (at least at the sampling resolution used here) the highest storm levels that were associated with significant flooding. As such the approach seems to hold promise to obtain a better understanding of the frequency of large storms by extending the dune archive records further back to times when documentation of storm surges was sparse. © 2017 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Discontinuous Galerkin methods for modeling Hurricane storm surge

Storm surge due to hurricanes and tropical storms can result in significant loss of life, property damage, and long-term damage to coastal ecosystems and landscapes. Computer modeling of storm surge can be used for two primary purposes: forecasting of surge as storms approach land for emergency planning and evacuation of coastal populations, and hindcasting of storms for determining risk, development of mitigation strategies, coastal restoration and sustainability.Storm surge is modeled using the shallow water equations, coupled with wind forcing and in some events, models of wave energy. In this paper, we will describe a depth-averaged (2D) model of circulation in spherical coordinates. Tides, riverine forcing, atmospheric pressure, bottom friction, the Coriolis effect and wind stress are all important for characterizing the inundation due to surge. The problem is inherently multi-scale, both in space and time. To model these problems accurately requires significant investments in acquiring high-fidelity input (bathymetry, bottom friction characteristics, land cover data, river flow rates, levees, raised roads and railways, etc.), accurate discretization of the computational domain using unstructured finite element meshes, and numerical methods capable of capturing highly advective flows, wetting and drying, and multi-scale features of the solution.The discontinuous Galerkin (DG) method appears to allow for many of the features necessary to accurately capture storm surge physics. The DG method was developed for modeling shocks and advection-dominated flows on unstructured finite element meshes. It easily allows for adaptivity in both mesh (h) and polynomial order (p) for capturing multi-scale spatial events. Mass conservative wetting and drying algorithms can be formulated within the DG method.In this paper, we will describe the application of the DG method to hurricane storm surge. We discuss the general formulation, and new features which have been added to the model to better capture surge in complex coastal environments. These features include modifications to the method to handle spherical coordinates and maintain still flows, improvements in the stability post-processing (i.e. slope-limiting), and the modeling of internal barriers for capturing overtopping of levees and other structures. We will focus on applications of the model to recent events in the Gulf of Mexico, including Hurricane Ike.     

Erosive water level regime and climatic variability forcing of beach–dune systems on south‐western Vancouver Island,British Columbia,Canada

Increases in the frequency and magnitude of extreme water levels and storm surges are correlated with known indices of climatic variability (CV), including the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), along some areas of the British Columbia coast. Since a shift to a positive PDO regime in 1977, the effects of ENSO events have been more frequent, persistent, and intense. Teleconnected impacts include more frequent storms, higher surges, and enhanced coastal erosion. The response of oceanographic forcing mechanisms (i.e. tide, surge, wave height, wave period) to CV events and their role in coastal erosion remain unclear, particularly in western Canada. As a first step in exploring the interactions between ocean–atmosphere forcing and beach–dune responses, this paper assembles the historic erosive total water level (TWL) regime and explores relations with observed high magnitude storms that have occurred in the Tofino‐Ucluelet region (Wickaninnish Bay) on the west coast of Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada. Extreme events where TWL exceeded an erosional threshold (i.e. elevation of the beach–foredune junction) of 5·5 m aCD are examined to identify dominant forcing mechanisms and to classify a regime that describes erosive events driven principally by wave conditions (61·5%), followed by surge (21·8%), and tidal (16·7%) effects. Furthermore, teleconnections between regional CV phenomena, extreme storm events and, by association, coastal erosion, are explored. Despite regional sea level rise (eustatic and steric), rapid crustal uplift rates have resulted in a falling relative sea level and, in some sedimentary systems, shoreline progradation at rates approaching +1·5 m a^–1 over recent decades. Foredune erosion occurs locally with a recurrence interval of approximately 1·53 years followed by rapid rebuilding due to high onshore sand supply and often in the presence of large woody debris and rapidly colonizing vegetation in the backshore. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The role of remote wind forcing in the subinertial current variability in the central and northern parts of the South Brazil Bight

Data analysis of continental shelf currents and coastal sea level, together with the application of a semi-analytical model, are used to estimate the importance of remote wind forcing on the subinertial variability of the current in the central and northern areas of the South Brazil Bight. Results from both the data analysis and from the semi-analytical model are robust in showing subinertial variability that propagates along-shelf leaving the coast to the left in accordance with theoretical studies of Continental Shelf Waves (CSW). Both the subinertial variability observed in along-shelf currents and sea level oscillations present different propagation speeds for the narrow northern part of the SBB (~?6–7 m/s) and the wide central SBB region (~?11 m/s), those estimates being in agreement with the modeled CSW propagation speed. On the inner and middle shelf, observed along-shelf subinertial currents show higher correlation coefficients with the winds located southward and earlier in time than with the local wind at the current meter mooring position and at the time of measurement. The inclusion of the remote (located southwestward) wind forcing improves the prediction of the subinertial currents when compared to the currents forced only by the local wind, since the along-shelf-modeled currents present correlation coefficients with observed along-shelf currents up to 20% higher on the inner and middle shelf when the remote wind is included. For most of the outer shelf, on the other hand, this is not observed since usually, the correlation between the currents and the synoptic winds is not statistically significant.     

The effects of hurricane hugo on suspended-sediment loads,Lago loíza Basin,Puerto Rico

Runoff generated from large storm events, such as hurricanes, is expected to transport large quantities of suspended sediment. Observations of suspended-sediment loads transported during Hurricane Hugo in the Lago Loìza (Lake Loiza) basin, Puerto Rico, indicate that loads were lower than expected. In the two main tributaries that enter Lago Loìza, Rio Grande de Loìza and Rio Gurabo, 99 600 tonnes of suspended sediment was transported by 58·2 × 10⁶ m³ of runoff in a 48 h period. The storm-average suspended-sediment concentration in the Río Grande de Loìza for Hurricane Hugo was 2290 mgl⁻¹, the second lowest for the 12 storms that have been monitored at this site. In Río Gurabo the storm-average suspended-sediment concentration was 1420 mgl⁻¹, the sixth lowest recorded out of 15 monitored storms. In Quebrada Salvatierra, a small tributary to Río Grande de Loìza, suspended-sediment concentrations were as low as 33 mgl⁻¹ during the peak runoff of 20 m³ s⁻¹. Normally the suspended-sediment concentrations at this discharge are 3000 mgl⁻¹. Hurricane force winds seem to be the most important factor contributing to the lower than expected suspended-sediment loads in the Lago Loìza basin. The high winds caused vegetation and debris to be dislodged and displaced. Debris accumulated on hillslopes and in small channels, blocked bridges and formed debris dams. These dams caused local backwater effects that reduced stream velocities and decreased suspended-sediment loads.     

Variations in the response of the dune coast of northern France to major storms as a function of available beach sediment volume

A series of airborne topographic LiDAR data were obtained from May 2008 to January 2014 over two coastal sites of northern France (Bay of Wissant and east of Dunkirk). These data were used with wind and tide gauge measurements to assess the impacts of storms on beaches and coastal dunes, and particularly of the series of major storms that hit western Europe during the fall and early winter of 2013. Our results show a high variability in shoreline response from one site to the other, but also within each coastal site. Coastal dune erosion and shoreline retreat occurred at both sites, particularly on the coast of the Bay of Wissant where shoreline retreat up to about 40 m was measured. However, stability or even shoreline advance were also observed despite the occurrence of an extreme water level with a return period >100 years during the storm Xaver in early December 2013. Comparison of shoreline change with variations of coastal dune and upper beach volumes revealed only weak relationships. Our results nevertheless showed that shoreline behavior seems to strongly depend on the initial sediment volume on the upper beach before the occurrence of the storms. According to our measurements, an upper beach volume of about 30 m³ m^?1 between the dune toe and the mean high water level is sufficient at these sites to protect the coastal dunes from storm waves associated with high water levels with return periods >10 years. The identification of such thresholds in terms of upper beach width or sediment volume may represent valuable information for improving the management of shoreline change by providing an estimate of the minimum quantity of sand on the upper beach necessary to ensure shoreline stability in this region. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Beach erosion and recovery during consecutive storms at a steep‐sloping,meso‐tidal beach

This study analyses beach morphological change during six consecutive storms acting on the meso‐tidal Faro Beach (south Portugal) between 15 December 2009 and 7 January 2010. Morphological change of the sub‐aerial beach profile was monitored through frequent topographic surveys across 11 transects. Measurements of the surf/swash zone dimensions, nearshore bar dynamics, and wave run‐up were extracted from time averaged and timestack coastal images, and wave and tidal data were obtained from offshore stations. All the information combined suggests that during consecutive storm events, the antecedent morphological state can initially be the dominant controlling factor of beach response; while the hydrodynamic forcing, and especially the tide and surge levels, become more important during the later stages of a storm period. The dataset also reveals the dynamic nature of steep‐sloping beaches, since sub‐aerial beach volume reductions up to 30 m³/m were followed by intertidal area recovery (–2 < z < 3 m) with rates reaching ~10 m³/m. However, the observed cumulative dune erosion and profile pivoting imply that storms, even of regular intensity, can have a dramatic impact when they occur in groups. Nearshore bars seemed to respond to temporal scales more related to storm sequences than to individual events. The formation of a prominent crescentic offshore bar at ~200 m from the shoreline appeared to reverse the previous offshore migration trend of the inner bar, which was gradually shifted close to the seaward swash zone boundary. The partially understood nearshore bar processes appeared to be critical for storm wave attenuation in the surf zone; and were considered mainly responsible for the poor interpretation of the observed beach behaviour on the grounds of standard, non‐dimensional, morphological parameters. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Storm surge simulation along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts using a multi-scale numerical model approach

The effectiveness of simulating surge inundation using the Eulerian–Lagrangian circulation (ELCIRC) model over multi-scale unstructured grids was examined in this study. The large domain model grid encompasses the western North Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Caribbean Sea to appropriately account for remote and resonance effects during hurricane events and simplify the specification of the open boundary condition. The U.S. East and Gulf Coasts were divided into 12 overlapping basins with fine-resolution (up to 30 × 30 m) grids to model overland surge flooding. These overlapping basins have different fine-resolution grids near the coastal region, but have an identical coarse-resolution grid in the offshore region within the large model domain. Thus, the storm surge prediction can be conducted without reducing computation efficiency by executing multiple model runs with local fine-resolution grids where potential hurricane landfalls may occur. The capability of the multi-scale approach was examined by simulating storm surge caused by Hurricanes Andrew (1992) and Isabel (2003) along the South Florida coast and in the Chesapeake Bay. Comparisons between simulated and observed results suggest that multi-scale models proficiently simulated storm surges in the Biscayne Bay and the Chesapeake Bay during two hurricanes. A series of sensitivity tests demonstrated that the simulation of surge flooding was improved when LiDAR topographic data and special bottom drag coefficient values for mangrove forests were employed. The tests also showed that appropriate representation of linear hydrologic features is important for computing surge inundation in an urban area.     

Coastal sea level variability in the US West Coast Ocean Forecast System (WCOFS)

Sea level variability along the US West Coast is analyzed using multi-year time series records from tide gauges and a high-resolution regional ocean model, the base of the West Coast Ocean Forecast System (WCOFS). One of the metrics utilized is the frequency of occurrences when model prediction is within 0.15 m from the observed sea level, F. A target level of F?=?90% is set by an operational agency. A combination of the tidal sea level from a shallow water inverse model, inverted barometer (IB) term computed using surface air pressure from a mesoscale atmospheric model, and low-pass filtered sea level from WCOFS representing the effect of coastal ocean dynamics (DYN) provides the most straightforward approach to reaching levels F>80%. The IB and DYN components each add between 5 and 15% to F. Given the importance of the DYN term bringing F closer to the operational requirement and its role as an indicator of the coastal ocean processes on scales from days to interannual, additional verification of the WCOFS subtidal sea level is provided in terms of the model-data correlation, standard deviation of the band-pass filtered (2–60 days) time series, the annual cycle amplitude, and alongshore sea level coherence in the range of 5–120-day periods. Model-data correlation in sea level increases from south to north along the US coast. The rms amplitude of model sea level variability in the 2–60-day band and its annual amplitude are weaker than observed north of 42 N, in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) coast region. The alongshore coherence amplitude and phase patterns are similar in the model and observations. Availability of the multi-year model solution allows computation and analysis of spatial maps of the coherence amplitude. For a reference location in the Southern California Bight, relatively short-period sea level motions (near 10 days) are incoherent with those north of the Santa Barbara Channel (in part, due to coastal trapped wave scattering and/or dissipation). At a range of periods around 60 days, the coastal sea level in Southern California is coherent with the sea surface height (SSH) variability over the shelf break in Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia, more than with the coastal SSH at the same latitudes.