Stick–Slip and the Transition to Steady Sliding in a 2D Granular Medium and a Fixed Particle Lattice

We report an experimental study of the stick–slip to steady sliding behavior of a solid object pulled, via a spring, across 2D granular substrates of photoelastic disks that are either fixed in a solid lattice (granular solid) or unconstrained, forming a granular bed. We observe a progression of friction regimes with increasing sliding speed, including single-slip, double-slip, and mixed stick–slip regimes, steady sliding, and inertial oscillations. For the case of the granular bed, we report a detailed analysis of frictional behavior for the low speed stick–slip regime, including spring and elastic energy dependencies during the stick and slip portions of the motion. For the case of the granular solid, we explore friction in the presence and absence of externally applied vibrations, and compare it with sliding on a granular bed, which is intrinsically disordered. We observe that external vibration reduces transition values for both the single-slip to double-slip transition and the stick–slip to steady sliding transition. Moreover, we observe that the effect of packing disorder on granular friction seems similar to the effect of vibration-induced disorder, a result that, to our knowledge, has not been reported previously in the experimental literature.     

The Application of the Acoustic Method to the Exploration of Urban Active Faults and a Comparison with the Artificial Earthquake, and Radar Methods

The depth of upper fault point is the key data for ascertaining the active age of a buried fault on a plain. The difference of depth obtained from same fault may be dozens to several hundred meters when using different geophysical methods. It can result in the absolutely opposite conclusions when judging fault activity. Because of a lack of an artificial earthquake source with wide band and high central-frequency, many kinds of methods have to be used together. The higher the frequency of the artificial earthquake wave, electromagnetic wave and sonic wave, the higher the resolution. However the attenuation is also very fast and the exploration depth is very shallow. The reverse is also true. The frequency of artificial seismic waves is in the tens of Hz. Its exploration depth is big and the resolution is poor. The frequency of radar electromagnetic waves is about a million Hz, indicating that the resolving power is better, but the exploration depth is very shallow. However, the acoustic frequency is thousands of Hz, its resolving power is better than that of the artificial earthquake method and the exploration depth is larger than that of the radar method. So it is suitable for extra-shallow exploration in the thick deposit strata of the Quaternary. The preliminary results detected using the high frequency acoustic method in extra-shallow layers indicates that previous inferences about some fault activity in the eastern part of the North China plain may need to be greatly corrected.     

Shales in the Qiongzhusi and Wufeng–Longmaxi Formations: a rock-physics model and analysis of the effective pore aspect ratio

The shales of the Qiongzhusi Formation and Wufeng–Longmaxi Formations at Sichuan Basin and surrounding areas are presently the most important stratigraphic horizons for shale gas exploration and development in China. However, the regional characteristics of the seismic elastic properties need to be better determined. The ultrasonic velocities of shale samples were measured under dry conditions and the relations between elastic properties and petrology were systemically analyzed. The results suggest that 1) the effective porosity is positively correlated with clay content but negatively correlated with brittle minerals, 2) the dry shale matrix consists of clays, quartz, feldspars, and carbonates, and 3) organic matter and pyrite are in the pore spaces, weakly coupled with the shale matrix. Thus, by assuming that all connected pores are only present in the clay minerals and using the Gassmann substitution method to calculate the elastic effect of organic matter and pyrite in the pores, a relatively simple rock-physics model was constructed by combining the self-consistent approximation (SCA), the differential effective medium (DEM), and Gassmann’s equation. In addition, the effective pore aspect ratio was adopted from the sample averages or estimated from the carbonate content. The proposed model was used to predict the P-wave velocities and generally matched the ultrasonic measurements very well.     

Modelling ocean wave climate with a Bayesian hierarchical space–time model and a log-transform of the data

Long-term trends in the ocean wave climate because of global warming are of major concern to many stakeholders within the maritime industries, and there is a need to take severe sea state conditions into account in design of marine structures and in marine operations. Various stochastic models of significant wave height are reported in the literature, but most are based on point measurements without exploiting the flexible framework of Bayesian hierarchical space–time models. This framework allows modelling of complex dependence structures in space and time and incorporation of physical features and prior knowledge, yet remains intuitive and easily interpreted. This paper presents a Bayesian hierarchical space–time model with a log-transform for significant wave height data for an area in the North Atlantic ocean. The different components of the model will be outlined, and the results from applying the model to data of different temporal resolutions will be discussed. Different model alternatives have been tried and long-term trends in the data have been identified for all model alternatives. Overall, these trends are in reasonable agreement and also agree fairly well with previous studies. The log-transform was included in order to account for observed heteroscedasticity in the data, and results are compared to previous results where a similar model was employed without a log-transform. Furthermore, a discussion of possible extensions to the model, e.g. incorporating regression terms with relevant meteorological data, will be presented.     

Implementation of a wetting-and-drying model in simulating the Kennebec–Androscoggin plume and the circulation in Casco Bay

A high-resolution coastal ocean model was developed to simulate the temporal/spatial variability of the Kennebec–Androscoggin (K–A) river plume and the circulation in Casco Bay. The model results agree favorably with the moored and shipboard observations of velocity, temperature, and salinity. The surface salinity gradient was used to distinguish the plume from the ambient coastal water. The calculated plume thickness suggests that the K–A plume is surface trapped. Its horizontal scales correlate well with Q ^0.25, where Q is the volume discharge of the rivers. Directional spreading is affected by the wind with the upwelling favorable wind transporting the plume water offshore. Both the wind and the tide also enhance mixing in the plume. The inclusion of a wetting-and-drying (WAD) scheme appears to enhance the mixing and entrainment processes near the estuary. The plume becomes thicker near the mouth of the estuary, the outflow velocity of the plume is weaker, and the radius of the river plume shrinks. The flow field in the model run with the WAD is noisier, not only in shallow areas of Casco Bay but also in the plume and even on the shelf. We speculate that the WAD processes can affect much larger areas than the intertidal zones, especially via a river plume that feeds into a coastal current.     

Modeling the potential distribution of shallow-seated landslides using the weights of evidence method and a logistic regression model： a case study of the Sabae Area, Japan

A number of statistical methods are typically used to effectively predict potential landslide distributions. In this study two multivariate statistical analysis methods were used （weights of evidence and logistic regression） to predict the potential distribution of shallow-seated landslides in the Kamikawachi area of Sabae City, Fukui Prefecture, Japan. First, the dependent variable （shallow-seated landslides） was divided into presence and absence, and the independent variables （environmental factors such as slope and altitude） were categorized according to their characteristics. Then, using the weights of evidence （WE） method, the weights of pairs comprising presence （w^＋（i）） or absence （w^-（i））, and the contrast values for each category of independent variable （evidence）, were calculated, Using the method that integrated the weights of evidence method and a logistic regression model, score values were calculated for each category of independent variable. Based on these contrast values, three models were selected to sum the score values of every gird in the study area. According to a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis （ROC）, model 2 yielded the best fit for predicting the potential distribution of shallow-seated landslide hazards, with 89% correctness and a 54.5% hit ratio when the occurrence probability （OP） of landslides was 70%. The model was tested using data from an area close to the study region, and showed 94% correctness and a hit ratio of 45.7% when the OP of landslides was 70%. Finally, the potential distribution of shallow-seated landslides, based on the OP, was mapped using a geographical information system.     

Tectono-chronologic constraints on a Mesozoic slip and thrust belt in the eastern Jiaodong Peninsula

A major slip and thrust belt within the eastern Jiaodong Peninsula is located at the eastern terminal of the Qinling-Dabie-Sulu orogenic belt between the Sino-Korea Block and Yangtze Block. Although a lot of isotope chronologic data have been obtained regionally, little structural chronological research has been conducted in this region and this paper corrects that. Syn-deformational minerals were system-atically selected from samples of the NE-ENE trending transpressional shear zones and transpres-sional nappes and carefully analysed using 40Ar/39Ar methods. Two tectonic events were defined with the first event resulting from early movement of transpressional nappes around 190 Ma ago. This ac-cords with the period of syn-orogenic sinistral slip of the Tan-Lu faults and clockwise shear in the Eastern Qinling-Tongbaishan part of the Qinling-Dabie-Sulu orogenic belt. The second event involved strikeslip thrust movement of deep shear zones between 130Ma and 120Ma. This resulted from the onset of Mesozoic tectonic conversion in the eastern Jiaodong Peninsula. The sinistral strikeslip-thrusting in Jiaodong Peninsula and the extensional tectonism (toward ESE) in Liaodong Peninsula probably resulted in the clockwise rotation of Korea Peninsula in late Mesozoic.     

Application and validation of FLEMOcs – a flood-loss estimation model for the commercial sector

Abstract

The estimation of flood loss is difficult, especially in the commercial sector, because of its great inhomogeneity. However, the reliability of loss modelling is fairly unknown, since flood-loss models are scarcely validated. The newly developed Flood Loss Estimation MOdel for the commercial sector (FLEMOcs) was validated on the micro-scale using a leave-one-out cross-validation procedure. Additionally, different meso-scale loss functions were compared. Meso-scale model application was undertaken in 19 municipalities which were affected during the 2002 flood in Germany. Model results were compared with the results of three other loss models, as well as with official loss records. The micro-scale validation shows very good results, with no bias and mean absolute errors between 23 and 31%. The meso-scale validation indicates that FLEMOcs provides good results, especially in large areas with many affected companies where high losses are expected.

Citation Seifert, I., Kreibich, H., Merz, B. & Thieken, A. H. (2010) Application and validation of FLEMOcs – a flood-loss estimation model for the commercial sector. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(8), 1315–1324.     

Crustal thickness and adakite occurrence in the Philippines: Is there a relationship?

Adakites are increasingly being recognized worldwide in a variety of tectonic settings. Models on the formation of this geochemically distinct class of volcanic rocks have evolved from partial melting of subducted young, hot oceanic slabs to magmatism resulting from oblique subduction, low‐angle or flat subduction, or even slab‐tearing. Some workers have also pointed to the partial melting of thickened crust to explain the generation of adakitic melts. Rare earth element ratios from adakites and adakitic rocks in the Philippines were used in this study to obtain approximations of the levels where they were generated. These were tied to available geophysical data that defines the crustal thickness of the areas where the samples were collected. High Sm/Yb and La/Yb ratios denote the involvement of amphiboles, and in some cases garnet, in the generation of adakites and adakitic magmas. The presence of amphibole and garnet as residual phases suggests high pressures corresponding to thicker crust (～30 to 45 km). Adakites and adakitic rocks formed through processes other than melting of subducted young oceanic crust would need ≥30 km to account for the heavy rare earth element signatures. If mantle fractionation is not the process involved, crustal thickness is critical to generate adakites and adakitic rocks.     

A model of seismicity with fractal structures and a preliminary discussion on the relation between D and b value

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Properties and origin of energetic particles at the duskside of the Earth’s magnetosheath throughout a great storm

We study an interval of 56 h on January 16 to 18, 1995, during which the GEOTAIL spacecraft traversed the duskside magnetosheath from X ≅ −15 to −40 R_E and the EPIC/ICS and EPIC/STICS sensors sporadically detected tens of energetic particle bursts. This interval coincides with the expansion and growth of a great geomagnetic storm. The flux bursts are strongly dependent on the magnetic field orientation. They switch on whenever the B_z component approaches zero (B_z ≅ 0 nT). We strongly suggest a magnetospheric origin for the energetic ions and electrons streaming along these “exodus channels”. The time profiles for energetic protons and “tracer” O⁺ ions are nearly identical, which suggests a common source. We suggest that the particles leak out of the magnetosphere all the time and that when the magnetosheath magnetic field connects the spacecraft to the magnetotail, they stream away to be observed by the GEOTAIL sensors. The energetic electron fluxes are not observed as commonly as the ions, indicating that their source is more limited in extent. In one case study the magnetosheath magnetic field lines are draped around the magnetopause within the YZ plane and a dispersed structure for peak fluxes of different species is detected and interpreted as evidence for energetic electrons leaking out from the dawn LLBL and then being channelled along the draped magnetic field lines over the magnetopause. Protons leak from the equatorial dusk LLBL and this spatial differentiation between electron and proton sources results in the observed dispersion. A gradient of energetic proton intensities toward the Z_GSM= 0 plane is inferred. There is a permanent layer of energetic particles adjacent to the magnetosheath during this interval in which the dominant component of the magnetic field was B_z.     

Role of magnetospheric convection and precipitation in the formation of the “dusk effect” during the main phase of a magnetic storm

This paper studies the role of magnetospheric factors, such as convection and energetic electron precipitation during the formation of positive disturbances in the total electron content under the conditions of the summer evening ionosphere. à numerical model of the ionosphere and plasmasphere, where time variations in the magnetospheric convection velocity and electron precipitation parameters correspond to the main phase of a magnetic storm, has been used for this purpose. It has been indicated that the total electron content sharply increases (the “dusk effect”) in the eastern and western sectors at approximately the same geomagnetic latitudes corresponding to the subauroral zone provided that a sudden storm commencement is registered in the morning hours. local time. This peak of the total electron content is formed as a result of joint reconstruction of the magnetospheric convection pattern and energetic electron precipitation during the main phase of a storm. In this case, magnetospheric convection plays the main role, raising the F2 layer by 40–80 km into the region with a lower recombination rate.     

Can Radioactive Emanations in a Seismically Active Region Affect Atmospheric Electricity and the Ionosphere?

Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth - Abstract—Anomalous variations in radon emissions from the soil are sometimes observed before and after strong earthquakes. In this paper, we...     

Evaluation of the Capacity of Comprehensive Earthquake Prevention System in a Region and Its Countermeasures

A model for evaluating the capacity of the comprehensive prevention system in a region in terms of economic losses is established in this paper by using fuzzy mathematics.The authors have explored the weak links of the system mentioned above and suggested an effective procedure of increasing the capacity of earthquake resistance and disaster prevention in a region.Through taking suitable means of decision making,the mathematical model presented in this paper can be used for reference during establishing the comprehensive prevention system in a region to reduce the earthquake disasters.     

New predictors and a new prediction model for the typhoon frequency over western North Pacific

In this paper, the impacts of the atmospheric circulation during boreal winter-spring on the western North Pacific (WNP) typhoon frequency (WNPTF) are studied. Several new factors in winter-spring in- fluencing the typhoon frequency were identified, including the sea ice cover in the North Pacific and the North Pacific oscillation. Based on these results, the multi-linear regression was applied to establishing a new forecast model for the typhoon frequency by using the datasets of 1965―1999. The forecast model shows a high correlation coefficient (0.79) between the model simulated and the actual typhoon frequencies in the period of 1965―1999. The forecast model also exhibits reasonable hindcasts for the typhoon frequencies for the years 2000―2006. Therefore, this work demonstrates that the new pre- dictors are significant for the prediction of the interannual variability of the WNPTF, which could be potentially used in the operational seasonal forecast of the typhoon frequency in the WNP to get a more physically based operational prediction model and higher forecast skill.