Solar energetic particle fluences from SOHO/ERNE

We have calculated integral fluences of solar protons and helium nuclei at 19 energy thresholds between 1.6 and 90 MeV/n from the SOHO/ERNE measurements during the years 1996–2005. We have also calculated fluences of oxygen and iron in the energy range from 10 up to a few hundred MeV/n for nineteen solar energetic particle (SEP) events. These are the first results of the work aiming at a full employment of the ERNE data in investigating the fluence distributions of SEP events over the entire solar activity cycle 23 and in deriving the total dose received on-board SOHO during its mission. Some instrumental problems are identified and future developments are presented.     

Changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere in the polar regions of the Earth after solar proton flares (3d modeling)

The paper presents the results of numerical photochemical simulations of the impact of the most powerful solar proton flares during the 23rd solar cycle on the ozonosphere in the polar regions of the Earth. A global 3D photochemical model, CHARM, developed at Central Aerological Observatory (CAO) was used in the simulations. The model introduces an additional source of nitrogen atoms and OH radicals. These components are formed due to the ionization effect of solar protons in the Earth’s atmosphere. The ionization rate was determined from data on proton fluxes measured by GOES satellites. The production rate of additional NO _x and HО _x molecules per ion pair was based on published theoretical studies. It is shown that the most intense flares in the 23rd solar cycle (2000, 2001, and 2003) destroyed ozone in the mesosphere to a great extent (sometimes completely, for example, during the July 14, 2000, event). It is found that the response of ozone to solar proton events follows a seasonal pattern. For the first time, the long-term effect of solar proton events is identified; it is approximately one year.     

Twilight anomaly,midday recovery and cutoff latitudes during the intense polar cap absorption event of March 1991

A study was made of the polar cap absorption (PCA) event on 23–24 March 1991 produced by the largest solar proton event at E>10 MeV since August 1972. This PCA event was related to a solar flare in the eastern hemisphere lasting only 2 days and exhibiting a long time delay between the flare and the increase of ionospheric absorption. Midday recovery occurred regularly each PCA day near the cutoff lati- tudes during the noontime hours and is attributed to the daily variation in the proton cutoff latitudes. The maximum absorption during the PCA event was observed at high latitudes or near the cutoff latitudes where ionization may be due to both solar protons and trapped particles. The minimum in the absorption values during the night-time hours would appear to be caused by the chemistry of the D-region as well as access of the solar protons into the polar cap area.     

GPU-accelerated computing of three-dimensional solar wind background

High-performance computational models are required to make the real-time or faster than real-time numerical prediction of adverse space weather events and their influence on the geospace environment. The main objective in this article is to explore the application of programmable graphic processing units (GPUs) to the numerical space weather modeling for the study of solar wind background that is a crucial part in the numerical space weather modeling. GPU programming is realized for our Solar-Interplanetary-CESE MHD model (SIP-CESE MHD model) by numerically studying the solar corona/interplanetary solar wind. The global solar wind structures are obtained by the established GPU model with the magnetic field synoptic data as input. Meanwhile, the time-dependent solar surface boundary conditions derived from the method of characteristics and the mass flux limit are incorporated to couple the observation and the three-dimensional (3D) MHD model. The simulated evolution of the global structures for two Carrington rotations 2058 and 2062 is compared with solar observations and solar wind measurements from spacecraft near the Earth. The MHD model is also validated by comparison with the standard potential field source surface (PFSS) model. Comparisons show that the MHD results are in good overall agreement with coronal and interplanetary structures, including the size and distribution of coronal holes, the position and shape of the streamer belts, and the transition of the solar wind speeds and magnetic field polarities.     

Solar proton activity during cycle 23 and changes in the ozonosphere: Numerical simulation and analysis of observational data

Using the data on solar proton fluxes measured on board the GOES satellites, the most powerful solar proton events (SPEs) of solar cycle 23 are selected, and ionization rates in the atmosphere in these periods at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere are calculated. Assuming that each ion pair formed at the retardation of solar protons in the atmosphere leads to the formation of 1.25 molecules of nitric oxide, 2.0 molecules of the OH radical, and one oxygen atom, changes in the content of ozone, nitrogen and other compounds were calculated using a photochemical model. The calculations showed that the strongest ionization and destruction of ozone was caused by SPEs that occurred on July 14, 2000; November 8, 2000; November 4, 2001; and October 28, 2003. The results can form the basis for compiling the catalog of changes in ionization and ozone in the atmosphere caused by solar proton activity.     

Effects of solar proton events in the mesosphere/lower thermosphere region according to the data of meteo radar wind measurements at high and middle latitudes

Data from meteo radar measurements of the wind in the mesosphere/lower thermosphere region at high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere (Molodezhnaya station, 68° S, 45° E) and at middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (Obninsk station, 55° N, 37° E) during solar proton events that took place in 1989, 1991, 2000, 2005, and 2012 are analyzed in the paper. In 1989 and 1991, we succeeded in observing the response to solar proton evens at both stations simultaneously. The results show that solar proton events lead to a change in the wind regime of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. At high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere, significant changes are observed in the values of the velocities of the meridional and zonal components of the prevailing wind. In the case of powerful solar proton events, the amplitude of the semidiurnal tide grows in the vicinity of the proton flux maximum. The response to these events depends on the season. The reaction of the prevailing wind at middle latitudes shows the same features as the reaction of the wind at high latitudes. However no unambiguous response of the tide amplitude is observed. In the summer season, even powerful events (for example, in July 2000) cause no changes in the wind regime parameters in the midlatitude region of the mesosphere/lower thermosphere.     

Verification of magnetic field models based on measurements of solar cosmic ray protons in the magnetosphere

Measurements of solar cosmic ray (SCR) protons in the magnetosphere can be used to verify models of the Earth’s magnetic field. The latitudinal profiles of precipitating SCRs with energies of 1–90 MeV were measured on the CORONAS-F low-orbiting satellite during a strong magnetic storm on October 29–30, 2003. A flux of precipitating protons can remain equal to the interplanetary flux only due to a strong pitch angle diffusion that originates when the radius of the field line curvature is close to that of the particle rotation Larmor radius. The observed boundaries of the strong diffusion region can be compared with the boundaries anticipated according to the models of the magnetic field of the Earth’s magnetosphere. The adiabaticity parameter values, calculated for several instants of the CORONAS-F satellite pass based on the TS05 and parabolic models, do not always correspond to measurements. How possible changes in the model configurations of the magnetic field can allow us to eliminate discrepancies with the experiment and to explain why solar protons with energies of several megaelectronvolts penetrate deep in the Earth’s inner magnetosphere is considered here.     

From discovery to prediction of magnetospheric processes

Over the last 50 years magnetospheric research has transferred its focus from geomagnetism to space physics, or from inferring the intensity of extraterrestrial currents, through discoveries of the main plasma regions in the magnetosphere, to predicting the processes occurring in the entire solar wind–magnetosphere–ionosphere system. Relating advances in magnetospheric physics to the framework of substorm research, this review paper demonstrates that the “recent” space age since 1960s consisted of (1) an exploratory/discovery phase in which the magnetotail, the plasma sheet, and the acceleration region of auroral particles were identified, and (2) a phase of comprehensive understanding in which we have attempted to comprehend the nature and significance of the near-Earth space environment. This progress in solar-terrestrial physics has coincided with a number of new discoveries of solar and interplanetary phenomena such as magnetic clouds, coronal mass ejections and coronal holes. Computer simulation techniques have been developed to the degree that satellite observations from a very limited number of points can be used to trace and reproduce the main energy processes. We are now entering a new phase in which we hope to be able to predict the dynamic processes that take place in the solar-terrestrial environment.     

The Dicke cycle: A ∼27-day solar oscillation

Measurements of solar EUV irradiance show, besides the ～11-year Schwabe cycle, a series of oscillations with a ～27-day period. They are generally explained by the passage of active regions across the solar surface resulting from the Sun's rotation, but the calculated amplitude underestimates the observed long-term variation in irradiance (Lean 1991). The variant of this model proposed here is modulation of EUV emission from the corona by rotation of the Sun's radiative zone. The response would be immediate, raising the prospect of short-term forecasting of EUV effects on space weather and on the Earth's atmospheric circulation.     

Relativistic electron flux enhancement at synchronous orbit during SEP event on July 14, 2000

Relativistic (E >1.6 MeV) electron flux enhancements during Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events as observed by the synchronous FY-2 satellite at orbit located at 105°E are investigated. Energetic protons during SEP events heavily contaminate relativistic electron flux measurements. The ratio of the contamination in the original measurement of relativistic electron flux was over 30% during most of the SEP event on July 14, 2000. A method has been developed to eliminate the contamination caused by the energetic protons, and a "corrected" relativistic electron flux has been obtained. The "cleaned-up" relativistic electron flux measurement shows that relativistic electron flux enhancement at synchronous orbit is well correlated with SEP events during which the IMF Bz has some southward periods. The enhancement could arise as the transport of relativistic electrons from the upstream solar wind into synchronous orbit via the magnetotail.     

Effects of the Sun on the Earth's environment

Solar disturbances are observed to have significant effects in near-Earth space. Over the past half-century of observation, a relatively clear picture has developed of how and why the typical solar wind — as well as the most extreme solar events — drive geospace responses. It is clear that magnetospheric substorms, geomagnetic storms (both recurrent and aperiodic events), and even certain atmospheric chemical changes have their origins in the solar–terrestrial coupling arena. High-speed solar wind streams and fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can often have strong interplanetary shock waves and southward magnetic fields which can initiate strong storm responses. We demonstrate in this review that available modern space-observing platforms and ground facilities allow us to trace drivers from the Sun to the Earth's atmosphere. This allows us to assess quantitatively the energy transport that occurs throughout the Sun–Earth system during both typical and extreme conditions. Hence, we are continuously improving our understanding of “space weather” and its effects on human society.     

Particle acceleration and transport in the inner heliosphere

In the solar system, our Sun is Nature’s most efficient particle accelerator. In large solar flares and fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs), protons and heavy ions can be accelerated to over ~GeV/nucleon. Large flares and fast CMEs often occur together. However there are clues that different acceleration mechanisms exist in these two processes. In solar flares, particles are accelerated at magnetic reconnection sites and stochastic acceleration likely dominates. In comparison, at CME-driven shocks, diffusive shock acceleration dominates. Besides solar flares and CMEs, which are transient events, acceleration of particles has also been observed in other places in the solar system, including the solar wind termination shock, planetary bow shocks, and shocks bounding the Corotation Interaction Regions (CIRs). Understanding how particles are accelerated in these places has been a central topic of space physics. However, because observations of energetic particles are often made at spacecraft near the Earth, propagation of energetic particles in the solar wind smears out many distinct features of the acceleration process. The propagation of a charged particle in the solar wind closely relates to the turbulent electric field and magnetic field of the solar wind through particle-wave interaction. A correct interpretation of the observations therefore requires a thorough understanding of the solar wind turbulence. Conversely, one can deduce properties of the solar wind turbulence from energetic particle observations. In this article I briefly review some of the current state of knowledge of particle acceleration and transport in the inner heliosphere and discuss a few topics which may bear the key features to further understand the problem of particle acceleration and transport.     

Impact of space energetic particles on the Earth’s atmosphere (a review)

The state of the Earth??s upper atmosphere is formed with the participation of impacts by energetic particles, such as galactic cosmic rays, protons of solar proton events, and precipitation of relativistic electrons. Changes in the neutral composition and the thermal and dynamical regime of the upper atmosphere during periods of disturbances caused by the influence of energetic particles are considered.     

Flares,ejections, proton events

Statistical analysis is performed for the relationship of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and X-ray flares with the fluxes of solar protons with energies >10 and >100 MeV observed near the Earth. The basis for this analysis was the events that took place in 1976–2015, for which there are reliable observations of X-ray flares on GOES satellites and CME observations with SOHO/LASCO coronagraphs. A fairly good correlation has been revealed between the magnitude of proton enhancements and the power and duration of flares, as well as the initial CME speed. The statistics do not give a clear advantage either to CMEs or the flares concerning their relation with proton events, but the characteristics of the flares and ejections complement each other well and are reasonable to use together in the forecast models. Numerical dependences are obtained that allow estimation of the proton fluxes to the Earth expected from solar observations; possibilities for improving the model are discussed.     

Variability of the solar shape (before space dedicated missions)

Shrinking or expansion of the solar shape and irradiance variations are ultimately related to solar activity. We give here a review on existing ground-based or space solar radius measurements, extending the concept to shape changes. We show how helioseismology results allow us to look at the variations below the surface, where changes are not uniform, putting in evidence a new shallow layer, the leptocline, which is the seat of solar asphericities, radius variations with the 11-yr cycle and the cradle of complex physical processes: partial ionization of the light elements, opacities changes, superadiabaticity, strong gradient of rotation and pressure. Based on such physical grounds, we show why it is important to get accurate measurements from scheduled dedicated space missions: PICARD, SDO, DynaMICCS, ASTROMETRIA, SPHERIS. Such measurements will provide us a unique opportunity to study in detail the relationship between global solar properties and changes in the Sun's interior.     

太阳质子事件、双带耀斑及日冕物质抛射

本文统计了第２２ 太阳活动周期间（１９９１ ～１９９５ 年） 发生的２５ 个太阳质子事件与太阳耀斑及日冕物质抛射（ＣＭＥ） 事件的关系　　统计结果表明, 所有的太阳质子事件都与耀斑发生相关, 除２ 个质子事件（１９９４１０２０ 和１９９５１０２０ 日发生的太阳质子事件） 与ＣＭＥ发生无关, 其余质子事件也都与ＣＭＥ 相关　　值得注意的是, 与质子事件相关的耀斑有１６ 个是双带耀斑, 其中包括与ＣＭＥ无关的２ 个事件的耀斑, 占总数的６４ ％ 　　上述统计结果证实了无论是太阳耀斑, 还是物质抛射, 它们对太阳质子事件的发生同样起着非常重要的作用     

Solar forcing of the Northern hemisphere land air temperature: New data

It has previously been demonstrated that the mean land air temperature of the Northern hemisphere could adequately be associated with a long-term variation of solar activity as given by the length of the approximately 11-year solar cycle. Adding new temperature data for the 1990s and expected values for the next sunspot extrema we test whether the solar cycle length model is still adequate. We find that the residuals are now inconsistent with the pure solar model. We conclude that since around 1990 the type of Solar forcing that is described by the solar cycle length model no longer dominates the long-term variation of the Northern hemisphere land air temperature.     

Turbidity-discharge hysteresis in a meso-scale catchment: The importance of intermediate scale events

In-situ sensors for riverine water quality monitoring are a powerful tool to describe temporal variations when efficient and informative analyses are applied to the large quantities of data collected. Concentration-discharge hysteresis patterns observed during storm events give insights into headwater catchment processes. However, the applicability of this approach to larger catchments is less well known. Here, we evaluate the potential for high-frequency turbidity-discharge (Q) hysteresis patterns to give insights into processes operating in a meso-scale (722 km²) northern mixed land use catchment. As existing event identification methods did not work, we developed a new, objective method based on hydrograph characteristics and identified 76 events for further analysis. Qualitative event analysis identified three recurring patterns. Events with low mean Q (≤ 2 m³/s) often showed short-term, quasi-periodic turbidity variation, to a large extent disconnected from Q variation. High max Q events (≥15 m³/s) were often associated with spring flood or snowmelt, and showed a disconnection between turbidity and Q. Intermediate Q events (mean Q: 2–11 m³/s) were the most informative when applying hysteresis indexes, since changes in turbidity and Q were actually connected. Hysteresis indexes could be calculated on a subset of 60 events, which showed heterogeneous responses: 38% had a clockwise response, 12% anticlockwise, 12% figure eight (clockwise–anticlockwise), 10% reverse figure eight (anticlockwise–clockwise) and 28% showed a complex response. Clockwise hysteresis responses were associated with the wetter winter and spring seasons. Generally, changes in Q and turbidity were small during anticlockwise hysteresis events. Precipitation often influenced figure-eight patterns, while complex patterns often occurred during summer low flows. Analysis of intermediate Q events can improve process understanding of meso-scale catchments and possibly aid in choosing appropriate management actions for targeting a specific observed pattern.     

Dynamics of solar protons in the Earth’s magnetosphere during magnetic storms in November 2004–January 2005

The processes of penetration, trapping, and acceleration of solar protons in the Earth’s magneto-sphere during magnetic storms in November 2004 and January 2005 are studied based on the energetic particle measurements on the CORONAS-F and SERVIS-1 satellites. Acceleration of protons by 1–2 orders of magnitude was observed after trapping of solar protons with an energy of 1–15 MeV during the recovery phase of the magnetic storm of November 7–8, 2004. This acceleration was accompanied by an earthward shift of the particle flux maximum for several days, during which the series of magnetic storms continued. The process of relativistic electron acceleration proceeded simultaneously and according to a similar scenario including acceleration of protons. At the end of this period, the intensification was terminated by the process of precipitation, and a new proton belt split with the formation of two maximums at L ～ 2 and 3. In the January 2005 series of moderate storms, solar protons were trapped at L = 3.7 during the storm of January 17–18. However, during the magnetic storm of January 21, these particles fell in the zone of quasi-trapping, or precipitated into the atmosphere, or died in the magnetosheath. At the same time, the belts that were formed in November at L ～ 2 and 3 remained unchanged. Transformations of the proton (and electron) belts during strong magnetic storms change the intensity and structure of belts for a long time. Thus, the consequences of changes during the July 2004 storm did not disappear until November disturbances.     

Regularities in solar high-energy particle fluxes: Experimental data and probabilistic model

The currently available experimental data, among which the series of particle flux measurements on satellites are of crucial importance, have revealed a number of regularities pertaining to solar cosmic rays (SCRs). Based on these regularities, we have developed a probabilistic model of particle fluxes. This model not only provides a basis for determining radiation conditions in space flights and space weather impacts but also allows such situations as the occurrence of extreme SCR events in the quiet-Sun period in 2005–2006 to be predicted.