电离层春秋分不对称的地方时依赖

利用全球203个电离层测高仪台站的F_2层临界频率(f_oF_2)和E层临界频率(f_oE),以及美国喷气推进实验室(JPL)提供的电离层总电子含量(TEC)地图数据统计分析了电离层春秋分(March Equinox and September Equinox,ME and SE)不对称的特点.基于电离层参量随年积日(Day of Year,DoY)和太阳活动指数F_(10.7)变化的傅里叶级数模型,对f_oF_2、f_oE及TEC数据分别进行最小二乘法拟合,将电离层参量归算到低太阳活动(F_(10.7)=80)、中等太阳活动(F_(10.7)=150)和高太阳活动(F_(10.7)=200)水平.该方法定量分离了实际观测数据中包含的电离层参量随季节和太阳活动的变化,因而得到了更为定量、精确的电离层春秋分不对称性特征.分析了不同地方时(LT)的春秋分不对称性指数(Asymmetry Index,AI)和春秋分差值Δ(=ME-SE)的全球分布特征与太阳活动依赖性.结果表明,foE日出时全球主要表现为9月分点值高于3月分点值,午后春秋分不对称性几乎消失,而日落时则反转为3月分点值高于9月分点值;f_oF_2日出时除少数地区外也主要表现为9月分点值高于3月分点值,而其他时段则相反;TEC日出时低太阳活动时的全球及中高太阳活动时的低纬地区表现为9月分点值高于3月分点值,而其他时段则相反.fo_E春秋分不对称性受太阳活动影响较弱,而f_oF_2和TEC的春秋分不对称随太阳活动有明显的变化,其3月分点值相对于9月分点值增加.计算了F_2层峰高(h_mF_2)处对应的氧氮浓度比([O]/[N_2],由大气模型NRLMSISE-00计算得到)和h_mF_2的春秋分不对称性,提取了TEC年变化的幅度及相位信息.氧氮浓度比和h_mF_2的春秋分不对称性能够部分解释电离层的春秋分不对称性,而TEC春秋分不对称的全球分布特征可以用TEC年变化的相位的全球分布解释.     

Climatology of total electron content near the dip equator under geomagnetic quiet-conditions

This study analyzes the TEC data during 1998–2007, observed by the AREQ (16.5°S, 71.5°W) GPS station to investigate the equatorial ionospheric variations under geomagnetic quiet-conditions. The diurnal TEC values generally have a maximum value between 1330 and 1500 LT and a minimum around 0500 LT. For the seasonal variation, the semi-annual variation apparently exists in the daytime TEC with two peaks in equinoctial months. In contrast, this semi-annual variation is not found in the nighttime. Furthermore, the results of the annual variation show that the correlation between the daytime TEC value and the solar activity factor is highly positive.     

120°E赤道电离异常区电子浓度总含量分析与预测

基于国际全球定位服务中心(International GPS Service,IGS)提供的120°E 上空1999-2009年IONEX格式电离层电子浓度总含量(TEC)资料,分析赤道电离异常驼峰区TEC峰值Inc和Isc的年变化和季节变化以及与太阳、地磁活动的相关性.在11年时间尺度上,Inc和Isc与太阳辐射P指数的日均值有较好的相关性(r=0.90和r=0.84),而与地磁活动指数Dst、Kp和Ap日均值的相关性均不好.驼峰区TEC峰值Inc和Isc都是在北半球春、秋季出现极大值,而且冬季值大于夏季值,即Inc呈现"半年异常"和"冬季异常"现象,我们认为Inc和Isc相似的半年变化特征是与赤道上空电离层电急流相关的东向电场半年变化导致的.利用支持向量回归方法构建了EIA指数的预报模型,预报试验结果表明,该预报模型能较准确地描述Inc和Isc的变化,对南北驼峰TEC峰值预报的平均相对误差分别为22.96%和10.2%.基于支持向量机回归的预测方法为赤道电离异常特征指数预报的实现提供一条有效方法途径和好的应用前景.     

Characterization of low latitude GPS-TEC during very low solar activity phase

We present the mean diurnal, seasonal and annual variations in TEC during the lowest solar activity phase from low latitude Indian zone recorded at Udaipur (Geog. Lat. 24.6°N, Geog. Long.73.7°E, Geomag. Lat. 15.6°N) using a GPS receiver. Seasonal variations in daytime TEC show a semiannual periodicity, with a minimum in winter. Results of seasonal variations have been compared with that of the IRI-2007 model. Model calculations reveal significant seasonal as well as longitudinal differences in TEC. Seasonal variations in the nighttime TEC reveal an annual periodicity. Near the crest of the EIA, TEC shows a very good correlation with the solar flux. The results also point to weakening of the anomaly crest as well as its spatial and temporal contraction with declining solar activity.     

The Weddell sea anomaly observed with the Topex satellite data

This paper introduces the complete image of the Weddell Sea Anomaly, observed with the over-the-ocean ionospheric total electron content (TEC) values obtained from the TOPEX satellite data with an almost unlimited coverage over the oceans, the first time according to the literature; and investigates its development. With a series of TOPEX TEC maps, this paper demonstrates the diurnal variations of both the night-time and the day-time Weddell Sea Anomaly, which appeared as a night-time TEC enhancement and as a day-time TEC depletion, during the near sunspot maximum period of 1998 and 1999 investigated. Several TOPEX passes, plotted in geomagnetic latitudes, are also presented to demonstrate the longitudinal variations of the Weddell Sea Anomaly, and also to show other ionospheric features appearing such as the southern-hemisphere mid-latitude day-time and night-time trough, the northern-hemisphere mid-latitude night-time trough and the equatorial anomaly. This paper demonstrates how large the anomaly is in reality situated west of the Faraday ionosonde station over the Bellinghausen Sea and not over the Weddell Sea that is east of Faraday. Thus the correct name should be Bellinghausen Sea Anomaly. Based upon the review paper of Dudeney and Piggott (1978), the development of the Weddell Sea Anomaly is explained with the combined effects of solar ultraviolet radiation and thermospheric neutral winds.     

Lunar and solar daily variations of the geomagnetic field at Toolangi

Summary Mean hourly values of magnetic declination, horizontal intensity and vertical intensity observed at Toolangi during two ten year periods (1924–1933 and 1949–1958) have been analysed to determine their solar and luni-solar diurnal components. The results, showing the variations of the first four harmonic components with season, degree of magnetic activity and annual sunspot number, are tabulated and discussed. It is shown that there are marked differences in the dependence ofS andL on the various parameters and a tentative explanation of this phenomenon is given.     

The sunspot cycle and solar and lunar daily variations inH

Summary Results of sunspot cycle influence on solar and lunar ranges at a low latitude station, Alibag, outside the equatorial electrojet belt, show that the sunspot cycle association in solar ranges is three times that of the lunar ranges in thed- andj-seasons. This is in general agreement with the earlier results for non-polar latitude stations. The association with sunspot number of individual lunar amplitudes is greatest for lunar semidiurnal harmonic in thej-season. During this season, the sunspot cycle influence on lunar variations is more than that on solar variations, thereby indicating that the lunar current is situated at a level more favourable for sunspot cycle influence than the level of the current associated with solar variations. With the increase in solar activity a shift appears in the times of maxima of semidiurnal lunar variation towards a later lunar hour ine- andj-seasons and in the year.     

利用半参数核估计法预报全球电离层总电子含量

本文将半参数平差模型引入电离层球谐函数系数的预报中,建立了半参数球谐函数模型(Semiparametric-Spherical Harmonic,Semi-SH)来预测全球电离层总电子含量.首先,通过快速傅里叶变换获得球谐函数系数的周期和振幅,将振幅高的主周期归入趋势函数,振幅低的剩余周期归入随机信号,建立了半参数模型,同时利用核估计方法拟合趋势函数,解算随机信号,并在时间域上进行外推,得到了预报时间的球谐函数系数,代入15阶电离层球谐函数模型,最后得出电离层总电子含量(Total Electron Content,TEC)的预报值.本文基于欧洲定轨中心(CODE)发布的球谐函数系数进行电离层TEC长期预报和短期预报分析,其中长期预报采用四年预报两年的模式对球谐函数系数进行预报,短期预报设计了三个算例,采用前30天预报后一天的模式,分别预报1天、滑动预报7天和滑动预报30天.实验结果表明:长期预报能够较好地反映全球电离层TEC的变化趋势和波动情况,Semi-SH模型对全球电离层TEC平均值(Mean TEC global,MTECglobal)的拟合值和预报值与MTECglobal实际值的相关系数分别为0.8743和0.8010,呈现出高度相关性.短期预报中,在太阳活动高年和太阳活动低年,Semi-SH模型在中纬度地区预报精度较CODE发布的电离层TEC 1天预报产品(CODE′S 1-Day Predicted GIM,C1PG)有较大提升,在高纬度与低纬度地区两种模型预报精度相当;Semi-SH模型在太阳活动高年和太阳活动低年30天滑动预报精度的均值均高于C1PG模型.实验结果说明了Semi-SH模型预报电离层TEC值的有效性.     

Spectral Structure of Temperature Variations in the Midlatitude Mesopause Region

Long-term series of midnight temperature in the mesopause region have been obtained from spectral observations of hydroxyl airglow emission (OH(6-2) λ840 nm band) at the Tory station (52° N, 103° E) in 2008–2016 and Zvenigorod (56° N, 37° E) station in 2000–2016. On their basis, the Lomb-Scargle spectra of the variations in the period range from ~12 days to ~11 years have been determined. Estimates of the amplitudes of statistically significant temperature fluctuations are made. The dominant oscillations are the first and second harmonics of the annual variation, the amplitudes of which are 23–24 K and 4–7 K, respectively. The remaining variations, the number of which was 16 for the Tory and 22 for Zvenigorod stations, have small amplitudes (0.5–3 K). Oscillations with combinational frequencies, which arise from modulation of the annual variation harmonics, are observed in a structure of the variation spectra in addition to interannual oscillations (periods from ~2 to ~11 years) and harmonics of the annual variation (up to its tenth harmonic).     

第23太阳活动周的黑子数峰值特征预报

Using the characteristic values of sunspot number variations during the descent and ascent of solar cycles,a neural network is designed to make long-term predications of the ascending period and the maximum smoothed monthly mean sunspot number for the Solar Cycle　23. Moreover,the factor of geomagnetic disturbance is also added as an input. The trained and tested results from Solar Cycle 12 to 22 have been obtained. Finally,the predictions of the ascending period and the maximum smoothed monthly mean sunspot number are given for Solar Cycle 23.     

Long-term variation of the semi-annual wave maxima in geomagnetic activity

Summary The time variations of the amplitudes and phases of the semi-annual variation in geomagnetic activity, characterized by the linear planetary index aa, have been analysed for the period 1868–1985. The results provide qualitative confirmation of Murayama's conclusions [13] about the systematic f phase in dependence on the changes in the level of solar activity and give support to Russel-McPherron's mechanism [16] concerning the effect of the predominant polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field. A distinctly expressed variation of the phase differences in the course of the sunspot cycle and of the 22-year cycle, and specific variations related to the sequence of four consecutive cycles have been established, as well as a well-defined 90-year period, all of them as a reflection of analogous variations in solar activity. The variations of the phase differences observed around the equinoxes can be explained by the combined effect of the mechanisms of the axial and equinoctial hypothesis. It is assumed that a displacement of the maxima of the semi-annual variation to dates after the equinoxes will be observed in the ascending parts and a reverse displacement towards the equinoxes and earlier dates in the desccending parts of the following sunspot cycles 22 nad 23.On leave from the Geophysical Institute of the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Akad. G. Bonchev Str. bl. 3, Sofia 1113, Bulgaria.     

The diurnal,annual and sunspot-cycle variations of ESFm at Huancayo compared with similar variations of spread-F occurrence at other longitudes and latitudes

Using the tabulations of spread-F data from ionosonde recordings the diurnal, annual and sunspot-cycle variations of this spread-F occurrence have been investigated for the equatorial station, Huancayo. Both R_z max and R_z min periods have been considered. The analyses suggest that some explanation of these variations can be made by involving two regimes, which have been called Regime A and Regime B. The Regime A is present throughout the night but this distribution is more obvious after midnight. This is because in the post-sunset period Regime B, which is associated with significant height rises, is dominant. The Regime A is the same as for similar distributions in mid-latitudes and is inversely related to sunspot activity. It maximizes in December solstice months. The Regime B is directly related to sunspot activity and maximizes in equinoctial months. Changes associated with the upper atmosphere neutral particle density have been found to be important, particularly for Regime A where an inverse relationship exists. The Regime A R_z min annual distributions reported here for Huancayo have been compared with similar distributions at other longitudes and latitudes.     

On regularities in long-term solar quiet geomagnetic variations

We propose a simple model to describe the behaviour of solar quiet geomagnetic variations Sq over a long time. We assume that Sq variations can be expressed through 24-h components and their harmonics subject to three modulations: 1 year, 11 years and several tens years. We started from the observation that the spectral lines of 30-year geomagnetic data series are split in accordance with yearly modulation. Our model gives good approximation of Sq variations and discloses a striking correlation of amplitudes and phases of modulating functions with the sunspot number and 2.8 GHz solar radio emission. It is also a tool for monitoring the Sq variations.     

The response of thunderstorm VLF radio noise to solar activity according to observations in Yakutsk

The relation between the long-term variations in the thunderstorm VLF radio noise intensity and solar activity in 1979–2006 has been studied. The sunspot number (the Wolf number) was used as a parameter characterizing solar activity. The intensity of VLF noise registered in Yakutsk characterizes thunderstorm activity in Eastern Siberia (0100–0500 UT) and in the African thunderstorm center (1300–1700 UT). Using the results of a correlation analysis, it has been found that thunderstorm activity in Eastern Siberia and in the African world centre is in antiphase with a change in the sunspot number. The highest anticorrelation coefficients between solar activity and thunderstorm discharge intensity were obtained for thunderstorms in Eastern Siberia. In this case the maximal correlation coefficients (R = −0.59 and −0.75) were obtained for the average monthly values of the VLF radio noise intensity in August, measured at 0400 UT and 1600 UT, respectively.     

中国地区地磁异常静日（AQD）的初步分析

本文将G.M.Brown等人对离S_q电流体系焦点较远处台站的异常静日（AQD）的H分量分析,发展为对包括S_q电流体系焦点附近台站和Z、D分量在内的AQD分析。主要分析了中国五个地磁台D、H、Z三要素静日最大值和最小值出现时间的分布,及其季节变化和逐年变化规律。结果表明,D、Z也有和H类似的AQD现象,其出现的年频度,也有与太阳黑子数反相变化的趋势。在有三个多太阳周资料的佘山台,太阳极小年AQD(Z_max)出现的频度,和随后的太阳极大年的黑子数R呈近似线性的关系。最后,本文对今后我国开展变化磁场的分析研究提出了建议。     

Observations of Antarctic precipitable water vapor and its response to the solar activity based on GPS sensing

Predicting global climate change is a great challenge and must be based on a thorough understanding of how the climate system components behave. Precipitable water vapor (PWV) is one of the key components in determining and predicting the global climate system. It is well known that the local surface temperature and pressure have a direct influence on the production of PWV. However, the influence of solar activity on atmospheric dynamics and their physical mechanisms is still an open debate, where past studies are focused at mid-latitude regions. A new method of determining and quantifying the solar influence on PWV based on GPS observations to correlate the GPS PWV and total electron content (TEC) variations is proposed. Observed data from Scott Base (SBA) and McMurdo (MCM) stations from 2003 to 2005 have been used to study the response of PWV to solar activity. In the analysis, the effects of local conditions (wind speed and relative humidity) on the distribution of PWV are investigated. Results show significant correlation between PWV and solar activity for four geomagnetic storms, with correlation coefficients of 0.74, 0.77, 0.64 and 0.69, which are all significant at the 95% confidence level. There was no significant correlation between TEC and PWV changes during the absence of storms. On a monthly analysis, a strong relationship exists between PWV and TEC during storm-affected days, with correlation coefficients of 0.83 and 0.89 (99% confidence level) for SBA and MCM respectively. These indicate a statistically significant seasonal signal in the Antarctic region, which is very active (higher) during the summer and inactive (lower) for the winter periods.     

Global empirical wind model for the upper mesosphere/lower thermosphere. I. Prevailing wind

An updated empirical climatic zonally averaged prevailing wind model for the upper mesosphere/lower thermosphere (70/110 km), extending from 80°N to 80°S is presented. The model is constructed from the fitting of monthly mean winds from meteor radar and MF radar measurements at more than 40 stations, well distributed over the globe. The height-latitude contour plots of monthly mean zonal and meridional winds for all months of the year, and of annual mean wind, amplitudes and phases of annual and semiannual harmonics of wind variations are analyzed to reveal the main features of the seasonal variation of the global wind structures in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Some results of comparison between the ground-based wind models and the space-based models are presented. It is shown that, with the exception of annual mean systematic bias between the zonal winds provided by the ground-based and space-based models, a good agreement between the models is observed. The possible origin of this bias is discussed.     

基于GPS和GRACE数据的三维地表形变的比较及地球物理解释

GPS技术能以高空间和高时间分辨率监测地表形变.但由于测量原理的不同,GPS监测的地表形变与GRACE存在差异.本文比较了ITRF2008-GPS残差序列与基于CSR的RL05版本的GRACE球谐系数的地表形变序列的差异.结果表明,GPS和GRACE的周年变化在高程方向上具有较好的一致性,但水平方向的差异明显.重点分析了影响GPS/GRACE地表形变差异(尤其是水平方向)的三个因素:不同GPS站时间序列间的不确定性,热弹性形变和区域形变.GPS站地表形变本身的不确定度在一定程度上导致了GPS/GRACE间的差异(特别是水平方向).结合热弹性形变理论指出,由温度变化引起的热弹性形变也是导致GPS/GRACE的南北方向差异的主要原因之一.因此利用GPS数据研究地表质量负载时,必须消除热弹性形变的影响.区域负载对GPS/GRACE水平方向差异的影响也是不可忽略的,特别是对欧洲区域.     

格尔木地磁Z分量静日变化特征与前兆异常分析

研究了格尔木地震台1996-2006年地磁模拟资料和2008-2011年的数字化资料,通过对台站磁静日低点时间、日变幅度、日变形态的分析,确认地磁z分量磁静日低点时间在地方时12时左右;日变幅月均值呈现明显的波浪式起伏变化,其年均值与太阳黑子数保持一致;地磁日变形态较为规则,有1个低点和2个高点;在前兆异常分析中,认为低点时间异常和日变形态双低点异常与周边强震具有一定的对应关系。     

THE METHOD OF CONSTRUCTING IONOSPHERIC TEC BACKGROUND FIELD BASED ON SVR MODEL

There are many factors related to the variations of TEC, and the changes of TEC caused by earthquake only occupy a small portion. Therefore, it is vital how to exclude the ionospheric interference of non-seismic factors accurately in the process of seismic ionospheric anomaly extraction. This study constructed a TEC non-seismic dynamic background field considering the influence of solar and geomagnetic activities. Firstly, the TEC components of half-year cycle and annual cycle are extracted by wavelet decomposition. Then, it establishes a regression model between TEC in which periodic factors are removed and solar activity index, geomagnetic activity index with SVR method(support vector regression)in non-seismic period. Finally, based on the constructed model, the solar activity index and geomagnetic activity index is used to reconstruct aperiodic components of TEC in earthquake's period. From the reconstructed aperiodic components of TEC plus the half-year periodic components and annual periodic components of TEC in the same period, the non-seismic dynamic background field is obtained. Comparing the residuals relative to original TEC values in non-seismic dynamic background field and traditional sliding window background, there are apparent monthly periodic change and semi-annual periodic change in the residuals of sliding window background, which can have obvious impacts on the subsequent seismic ionospheric anomaly detection. In order to test the validity of seismic TEC anomaly detection based on the background field construction method, this paper investigated the long time series TEC anomalies near Wenchuan city(30°N, 100°E)from March 1 to September 26 in 2008. It is found that under the condition of non-seismic disturbance such as solar activity and geomagnetic activity, TEC abnormal disturbance is rarely detected by non-seismic dynamic background field method, when compared with the traditional sliding time-window method. And before the earthquake, more TEC anomalies were detected based on the proposed method, also, they were more intense than those extracted by sliding window method. Therefore, the TEC background field construction method based on SVR(support vector regression)has superiorities in both system errors elimination, which are caused by solar, geomagnetism, the non-seismic ionospheric disturbance events and periodic fluctuations of TEC, and in reducing the false alarm rate of seismic TEC anomaly. Moreover, it can also improve the seismic TEC anomaly detection ability. In addition, this paper analyzed the time-spatial distribution of TEC anomaly before three earthquakes on May 12, August 21 and August 30, 2008. They were mainly negative abnormal perturbations and often distributed on the equatorial side of epicenter.