Recent innovations in hazard and risk analysis

Air pollution has been a major transboundary problem and a matter of global concern for decades. Climate change and air pollution are closely coupled. Just as air pollution can have adverse effects on human health and ecosystems, it can also impact the earth’s climate. As we enter an era of rapid climate change, the implications for air quality need to be better understood, both for the purpose of air quality management and as one of the societal consequences of climate change. In this study, an attempt has been made to estimate the current air quality to forecast the air quality index of an urban station Kolkata (22.65°N, 88.45°E), India for the next 5 years with neural network models. The annual and seasonal variability in the air quality indicates that the winter season is mostly affected by the pollutants. Air quality index (AQI) is estimated as a geometric mean of the pollutants considered. Different neural network models are attempted to select the best model to forecast the AQI of Kolkata. The meteorological parameters and AQI of the previous day are utilized to train the models to forecast the AQI of the next day during the period from 2003 to 2012. The selection of the best model is made after validation with observation from 2013 to 2015. The radial basis functional (RBF) model is found to be the best network model for the purpose. The RBF model with various architectures is tried to obtain precise forecast with minimum error. RBF of 5:5-91-1:1 structure is found to be the best fit for forecasting the AQI of Kolkata.     

Ecological model analysis of respiratory health risk factors by ambient air pollution in Lucknow,the capital City of Uttar Pradesh,India

Ambient air pollution, particularly in the urban environment of developing countries, has turned out to be a major health risk factor. We explore the compounded impact of age sensitivity, exposure, poverty, co-morbidity, etc., along with composite air pollution in determining morbidity and health burden of people in Lucknow, India. This cross-sectional study is confined to analyse respiratory health status across different socio-economic and geographic locations using n = 140 in-depth questionnaire method. We used mean daily ambient air pollution data of PM₁₀, PM_2.5, SO_2, and NO₂ for the 2008–2018 period. We used the ecological model framework to assess the risk at different hierarchical levels and compounded severity on a spatial scale. We also used Logistic regression model with log odds and odds ratio to analyze the association of risks outcomes with composite air pollution scores calculated using the principal component analysis method. There is a strong association of location-specific respiratory disease prevalence with an overall 32 percent prevalence. The prevalence of ecological model 1 (individual domain) is 4.3 percent, while ecological model 2 (community domain) has the highest prevalence at 32.4 percent. The logistic regression model shows that respiratory disease load is positively associated with age sensitivity (P < .001) and composite pollution level (P < .001). For another model with suffocation as the outcome variable, composite pollution level (P < .001) and exposure (P < .001) are positively associated. Optimum interventions are required at Ecological models 1, 2, and 3 levels for better respiratory health outcomes.

     

Air pollution forecasting from sky images with shallow and deep classifiers

Air pollution is one of the most important problems in the new era. Detecting the level of air pollution from an image taken by a camera can be informative for the people who are not aware of exact air pollution level be declared daily by some organizations like municipalities. In this paper, we propose a method to predict the level of the air pollution of a location by taking an image by a camera of a smart phone then processing it. We collected an image dataset from city of Tehran. Afterward, we proposed two methods for estimation of level of air pollution. In the first method, the images are preprocessed and then Gabor transform is used to extract features from the images. At the end, two shallow classification methods are employed to model and predict the level of air pollution. In the second proposed method, a Convolutional Neural Network(CNN) is designed to receive a sky image as an input and result a level of air pollution. Some experiments have been done to evaluate the proposed method. The results show that the proposed 9 method has an acceptable accuracy in detection of the air pollution level. Our deep classifier achieved accuracy about 59.38% which is 10 about 6% higher than traditional combination of feature extraction and classification methods.     

Environmental inequalities in New Zealand: A national study of air pollution and environmental justice

Research has established that many socially deprived, low income and ethnic minority communities are exposed to disproportionately high levels of outdoor air pollution. Whilst there is a burgeoning literature documenting these environmental disparities, most previous studies have taken place in North America and few researchers have examined local scale variations across an entire country. Further, there has been little work systematically evaluating disparities in the local exposure to air pollution from different sources. In this New Zealand research we use mean annual estimates of outdoor particulate air pollution for different sources for neighbourhoods across urban New Zealand to evaluate whether air pollution varies between local areas of differing socioeconomic circumstances. We find that outdoor pollution levels are higher in socially deprived areas (using a neighbourhood measure of disadvantage) and neighbourhoods with a high proportion of low income households. However, although ethnicity was also related to mean total pollution, levels were elevated in areas where the proportion European was higher and other ethnic groups (including Māori) were lower. We also find that the disparities in pollution levels are specific to the pollution source. The results are discussed in the context of the policy framework in New Zealand, including the tensions fashioned by the Resource Management Act 1991, which have effectively ‘desocialised’ environmental concerns. We argue that the regulatory framework is fixated on ‘environmental bottom lines’ rather than social concerns that are integral to the environmental justice framework. Some priorities for future research into environmental justice in New Zealand are also considered.     

Air Quality as a Meteorological Hazard

Meteorological hazards are usually considered to be tropical cyclones, droughts, hail-storms, severe storms and their effects such as tsunamis, storm surges, wildfire, and floods. Urban air pollution is not normally considered to be a meteorological hazard. This view has arisen because the causes of urban air pollution – industrial and motor vehicleemissions – are not meteorological in nature. Air pollution episodes, however, are sporadic in nature and their occurrence depends on a particular combination of meteorological factors. This is true even in megacities such as Mexico City, Manila, and Los Angeles that have acquired a reputation for polluted air. Analyses of air pollution episodes and hospital admissions from many countries indicate that thereis a significant increase in morbidity and mortality as a result of such episodes.Time-series studies undertaken in Sydney have shown that particulate matter, ozone and nitrogen dioxide are the pollutants that are primarily responsible for adverse health effects in that city.Air pollution, and in particular particulate matter, is believed to be responsible for just under 400 premature deaths per year in Sydney alone. This death rate is over twenty times larger than deaths due to other meteorological hazards. Part of the reason for the low death rate for the more traditional meteorological hazards is that the provision of high quality numerical weather prediction, coupled with modern communications technology, has enabled emergency service personnel to take appropriate action.Air quality forecasting systems can play an important role in mitigating the adverse effects of air pollution. The forecasts will affect the behaviour of susceptible individuals, and thus reduce adverse health effects. The outputs from forecasting systems can also be used to provide improved estimates of the total exposure to air pollutants of the inhabitants who areat risk. Such improved estimates can then be used in conjunction with longitudinal studies ofhealth effects to obtain better understanding of the complex interaction between air quality and health.     

Perceptions and attitudes to air pollution in an asbestos mining town

The ever-increasing awareness of the population regarding environmental issues, and especially pollution, is a relatively recent phenomenon. Several authors have considered these relationships within a phenomenological framework. As a preliminary consideration, we have attempted in this study to isolate geographical sectors with variable exposure to air pollution. We have taken readings from seven stations for the period of January 1977 to December 1980; with the help of the difference of means test, we have singled out the significant variants. Based on these findings, we have used the gravity model to determine the strong, average, and weak sectors of exposure to total dust concentration in the air.During the summer of 1980, we submitted a stratified sampling embracing 229 persons, compiled by a telephone questionnaire, with a view to assessing to what extent the population was concerned by pollution in the surrounding air, evaluating public opinion on alternate solutions to resolve this problem, and generally investigating whether the public conscience was sufficiently crystallized to embark upon local environmental protection measures. The Quebec mining town of Thetford Mines, an important centre for asbestos extraction, was used for this investigation.The findings indicate that the population has a generally well-perceived notion of pollution even if water pollution was stressed more than air pollution. However, the perception of air pollution is dependent on distance from the mine and consequently, on exposure sectors to total dust concentration in the air. We assembled, into three groups, some 14 alternate means to attack pollution. The most exposed sector favoured indirect actions, while in other sectors direct measures were accented. Socioeconomic standing and especially education level help explain perceived differences between types of pollution, whereas sex and age are statistically significant for the choice of alternate means. Length of residence has very little influence. Generally, it does not seem that the respondents' opinion are clearly and coherently crystallized. This is understandable if we accept that the respondents appear to dissociate water from air pollution. There therefore exists a lack of apparent agreement between attitudes concerning means and attitudes concerning ends.This research has been subsidized by the Department of Education of Quebec (FCAC programme, 1980–1981)     

Chemical composition of wet precipitation of air pollutants: A case study in Karachi,Pakistan

Air pollution has been considered one of the most important environmental challenges because of its direct effect on ecosystems and human health. Temporal changes in the composition of 20 samples of rainwater in the arid region of Karachi, Pakistan during the southwest monsoon of 2009 have been monitored to carry out the indirect assessment of air quality. The study has been fulfilled with the aim of identifying the level of air pollution, and the relative contribution of possible anthropogenic activities. Metal ions were analyzed to predict health risks. Rain samples were found to be alkaline (pH 5.55-7.55) due to the influence of calcium and magnesium rich particles. Continuous rains in consecutive days showed a remarkable decline in air pollution while the dry season boosted up the level of pollution. Strong correlations of total dissolved solids with K⁺, Na⁺, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, and Cl⁻ were observed. A relatively weak correlation of total suspended particles with metals showed the possibility of some other particulate matters being suspended in the air. Principal component analysis and analysis of means were used to predict the anthropogenic source of pollution. This study will be helpful to formulate strategic planning and policies for controlling the level of air pollution in the city.     

Hybrid Model for Urban Air Pollution Forecasting: A Stochastic Spatio-Temporal Approach

Air pollution is usually driven by a complex combination of factors in which meteorology, physical obstacles, and interactions between pollutants play significant roles. Considering the characteristics of urban atmospheric pollution and its consequent impacts on human health and quality of life, forecasting models have emerged as an effective tool to identify and forecast air pollution episodes. The overall objective of the present work is to produce forecasts of pollutant concentrations with high spatio-temporal resolution and to quantify the uncertainty in those forecasts. Therefore, a new approach was developed based on a two-step methodology. Firstly, neural network models were used to generate short-term temporal forecasts based on air pollution and meteorology data. The accuracy of those forecasts was then evaluated against an independent set of historical data. Secondly, local conditional distributions of the observed values with respect to the predicted values were used to perform spatial stochastic simulations for the entire geographic area of interest. With this approach the spatio-temporal dispersion of a pollutant can be predicted, while accounting for both the temporal uncertainty in the forecast (reflecting the neural networks efficiency at each monitoring station) and the spatial uncertainty as revealed by the spatial variograms. Based on an analysis of the results, our proposed method offers a highly promising alternative for the characterization of urban air quality.     

Modelling the responses of mature forest trees to air pollution

Systems analysis of the responses of forest trees to air pollutants led to mathematical models which represent the essential life processes of mature trees (photosynthesis, respiration, growth etc.) under ‘normal’ conditions and — especially — under pollution strees. Computer simulations using these models have made it possible to test and analyse the consequences of — known or hypothetical — pollution effects. The simulation runs have led to the identification of three distinct behavioural modes (growth, stagnation, breakdown) and corresponding stable and unstable system states. The results have produced new insights and contributed to the understanding of the dieback process of spruce and beech trees. The presentation will concentrate on the most recent and most complex of the hitherto existing models, theBeech model.     

The role of wind velocity and mixing depth in the distribution of urban air pollution hazard in Calgary,Alberta, Canada

Data on CO, wind velocity and mixing depths collected over a five-year period show a definite association between higher levels of air pollution and SW winds in Calgary (pop. 610,000), a city 110 km E of the Canadian Rockies. The phenomenon most pronounced at wind speeds lower than 3m sec^–1 is present during winds of up to 10 m sec^–1. The shallow mixing depth associated with southwesterlies in this area appears to be a strong factor in the maintenance of the discrepancy. In addition, a climatological assessment of the distribution of mean mixing depths in the city shows that mixed layers are shallowest and least frequent in the S end of the city thereby increasing the potential for air pollution hazard in that part of the city.     

酸性污染物欧拉型输送转化模式的研究

数值模式是研究酸性污染及其长距离输送特性的一种重要方法。７０年代以来，国内外发展了许多欧拉型的输送转化模式，我国在欧拉型酸性污染物长距离输送模式的研究中也取得了重要进展。主要介绍了国内外的欧拉酸性污染物输送转化模式，并就模式的发展方向进行了讨论。     

Modelling of atmospheric dispersion of heavy metals in the Celje area,Slovenia

The aim of this research was to determine how fast the level of heavy metal concentrations in the air decreases in relation to increasing distance from the source of pollution and what the influence area is of the zinc smelting plant which existed for 100 years in Celje. In that period it produced approximately 580,000 tons of raw Zn from sphalerite ore by the pyrometallurgical process. The production left behind a heavily contaminated area, where the concentrations of Pb and Zn in the soil can be expressed as a percentage. A model has been made on the basis of the data of concentrations of Zn and Cd in the soil and attic dust regarding the distance and direction from the source of the pollution. Because Celje lies in a basin we chose a linear model, which describes the decreasing of the concentrations of Zn and Cd only in one direction. Sampling has been conducted on the four river valleys which stretch from the source of the pollution in all four directions: north, west, south and east, up to 13 km from the source. The power function with a negative exponent was used. With the solution to the calculated functions according to the distance, we can estimate the theoretical distance when the concentrations drop to the natural background level. The range of influence of the zinc smelting plant has been estimated to be between 14 and 52 km for the presence of anthropogenic Zn in attic dust and between 9 and 14 km for the presence of anthropogenic Zn in the soil, depending on the direction from the plant. Correlations between the measured values and the ones from the model are high: from 0.75 up to 0.98.     

我国城市的大气污染与气体能源的地下储存

汽车尾气污染已成为城市空气污染的主要来源,改善汽车的燃气已成为当务之急。液化石油气与压缩天然气应是首选能源。延用百年的地表钢罐储存,无论从规模上、造价上、还是环境保护等方面已不再适宜。地下水封岩洞储存已应运而生。地下储气库对地质条件提出了非常严格的要求。本文重点论述地下水封洞库的保证性与围岩稳定性,同时还对我国修建地下气库的前景作了展望。     

Combined effects of particulates dispersion and elemental analysis in desert plants: a modeling tool to air pollution

Multidimensional assessment of air pollution was carried out on trace metals in particulates, desert plant parts and soil collected from the six sites to validate air pollution tolerance index, translocation and bioaccumulation factors. A map indicating the sampled sites was superimposed on the Disper 5.2 software graphical interface to track the particulate dispersion route during the summer and winter seasons. This study showed site-wise orientation of particulates dispersed in the ambient air. Observations indicated the high concentrations of dispersed coarse > fine > ultra-fine particulates in trace metals analyzed from selected desert plants and in the soil especially during winter than in the summer seasons. High air pollution tolerance index was observed in the sequence of Calatropis gigantean > Portulaca oleracea > Citrullus collocynthis > Rumex vesicarius > Bienertia sinuspersici > Tribulus terrestris. Assessment of translocation and bioaccumulation factors labeled these desert plants as hyper-accumulators. The synergistic effect of the translocation and bioaccumulation factor in the various plants and the pollution levels for a given geographical location provides insight management to mitigate air pollution and landscape designers to grow tolerant species and protect sensitive plants from air pollution.     

钢铁厂附近树木年轮的磁学性质及其环境意义

通过磁学手段以树木年轮为研究对象,通过多参数磁学研究探讨钢铁厂周围环境污染的历史.研究表明:钢铁厂附近树木年轮样品中磁性矿物为准单畴(其中颗粒偏向于多畴)的磁铁矿,磁性矿物形状各异,粒径大小不一;样品中磁铁矿的含量随年份的不同差异很大;通过树木不同方向上磁性参数尤其是饱和等温剩磁(SIRM)值的差异以及扫描电镜(SEM)和X射线能谱(EDX)分析,发现树木木质部中的磁性颗粒来自于树皮,即大气中颗粒被树皮和树叶表面吸附后,在树木的生长季节通过树皮进入形成层的木质部细胞,然后通过木质化作用被固定在当年生长的树木木质部木材中;另外,朝向钢铁厂方向的树干年轮钻芯样品SIRM值与对应年份钢铁厂年生产量之间高度相关,磁性颗粒在年轮之间不存在横向迁移,树干年轮钻芯的磁性参数(SIRM和部分磁滞参数)可指示该区大气环境污染的历史;污染树木钻芯样品的SIRM随时间的变化曲线说明该研究区大气污染日益严重.     

Correlations between air pollutant emission,logistic services,GDP, and urban population growth from vector autoregressive modeling: a case study of Beijing

Logistics in China has grown rapidly; in 2015, the freight volume has reached 41 billion ton, increasing by 4.4% year-on-year. At the same time, the pollutant emissions from freight cars account for 70% of total emissions of motor vehicles, which severely affected the air quality. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of logistics on air pollution; we used a new methodology based on vector autoregression of freight turnover, gross domestic product, and urban population. We selected Beijing as our test and created a model using time series data for the period 2000–2014. In this model, permanent residents, freight turnover, and SO₂ emission were used as proxies for population size, logistic services, and degree of air pollution. Our analyses showed that the expansion of logistic services had the biggest effect on air pollution. Moreover, impulse response analysis revealed that logistic growth caused more serious air pollution over a short time, with an ongoing negative effect. GDP growth was only weakly correlated with air pollution, while urban population growth appeared to have little effect.     

西北黄土高原干旱半干旱条件下城市污染特点——以西北某城市为例

该市地处西北黄土高原西部，是黄河河谷盆地型城市，其城市污染代表了黄土高原干旱、半干旱条件下污染特征。城市污染因子主要是大气降尘(烟尘)、沙尘、二次扬尘(地尘)以及固体垃圾物弥撒和污水灌溉。污染元素主要是Hg、Sb、Pb、Be、As、Cd、F等。以重金属为主的元素污染规律是(1)污染程度与人口密度、人群流通量密切相关；(2)人口集中商业发达的城区污染大于人口密度较小、工业较集中的城区；(3)工业污染中，重工业大于轻工业；(4)农业污染中，污水灌溉区大于非污水灌溉区；(5)污染物中重金属含量随颗粒细化而富集，其危害程度也愈来愈大。在评序污染程度时，除采取污染指数外，引入了勘查地球化学中的面金属量、衬度指数，使评价工作更具区域化、综合效应化。     

Low level of stratospheric ozone near the Jharia coal field in India

The Indian reserve of coking coal is mainly located in the Jharia coal field in Jharkhand. Although air pollution due to oxides and dioxides of carbon, nitrogen and sulphur is reported to have increased in this area due to large-scale opencast mining and coal fires, no significant study on the possible impact of coal fires on the stratospheric ozone concentration has been reported so far. The possible impact of coal fires, which have been burning for more than 90 years on the current stratospheric ozone concentration has been investigated using satellite based data obtained from Upper Atmospheric Research Satellite (UARS MLS), Earth Observing System Microwave Limb Sounder (EOS MLS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) in this paper. The stratospheric ozone values for the years 1992–2007, in the 28–36 km altitude range near Jharia and places to its north are found to be consistently lower than those of places lying to its south (up to a radius of 1000 km around Jharia) by 4.0–20%. This low stratospheric ozone level around Jharia is being observed and reported for the first time. However, due to lack of systematic ground-based measurements of tropospheric ozone and vertical ozone profiles at Jharia and other far off places in different directions, it is difficult to conclude strongly on the existence of a relationship between pollution from coal fires and stratospheric ozone depletion.     

Sulphur contents of conifer needles in Great Britain

There is currently a lack of convincing evidence linking air pollution and tree health in Great Britain. Field surveys have not revealed a clear association between the spatial distribution of crown thinning and air pollution; the crown condition of some species is apparently better in more polluted areas. This has been attributed to the confounding effects of climate, which is known to have a marked effect on crown condition. In this study, analysis of total sulphur contents of needles ofPicea sitchensis ((Bong.) Carr.),P. abies ((L.) Karst.) andPinus sylvestris (L.) reveals marked patterns that are correlated with modelled atmospheric concentrations of sulphur dioxide. Correlations with other indices of sulphur pollution, including wet and dry deposition and sulphate aerosol concentrations, are less consistent. However, no association has been found between the sulphur contents of needles and the crown densities of trees in Britain.     

Evaluation and comparison of CMIP6 models and MERRA-2 reanalysis AOD against Satellite observations from 2000 to 2014 over China

Rapid industrialization and urbanization along with a growing population are contributing significantly to air pollution in China. Evaluation of long-term aerosol optical depth (AOD) data from models and reanalysis, can greatly promote understanding of spatiotemporal variations in air pollution in China. To do this, AOD (550 nm) values from 2000 to 2014 were obtained from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CIMP6), the second version of Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research, and Applications (MERRA-2), and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS; flying on the Terra satellite) combined Dark Target and Deep Blue (DTB) aerosol product. We used the Terra-MODIS DTB AOD (hereafter MODIS DTB AOD) as a standard to evaluate CMIP6 Ensemble AOD (hereafter CMIP6 AOD) and MERRA-2 reanalysis AOD (hereafter MERRA-2 AOD). Results show better correlations and smaller errors between MERRA-2 and MODIS DTB AOD, than between CMIP6 and MODIS DTB AOD, in most regions of China, at both annual and seasonal scales. However, significant under- and over-estimations in the MERRA-2 and CMIP6 AOD were also observed relative to MODIS DTB AOD. The long-term (2000–2014) MODIS DTB AOD distributions show the highest AOD over the North China Plain (0.71) followed by Central China (0.69), Yangtse River Delta (0.67), Sichuan Basin (0.64), and Pearl River Delta (0.54) regions. The lowest AOD values were recorded over the Tibetan Plateau (0.13 ± 0.01) followed by Qinghai (0.19 ± 0.03) and the Gobi Desert (0.21 ± 0.03). Large amounts of sand and dust particles emitted from natural sources (the Taklamakan and Gobi Deserts) may result in higher AOD in spring compared to summer, autumn, and winter. Trends were also calculated for 2000–2005, for 2006–2010 (when China introduced strict air pollution control policies during the 11th Five Year Plan or FYP), and for 2011–2014 (during the 12th FYP). An increasing trend in MODIS DTB AOD was observed throughout the country during 2000–2014. The uncontrolled industrialization, urbanization, and rapid economic development that mostly occurred from 2000 to 2005 probably contributed to the overall increase in AOD. Finally, China's air pollution control policies helped to reduce AOD in most regions of the country; this was more evident during the 12th FYP period (2011–2014) than during the 11th FYP period (2006–2010). Therefore this study strongly advises the authority to retain or extend these policies in the future for improving air quality.