On the composition of ices incorporated in Ceres

We use the clathrate hydrate trapping theory and gas drag formalism to calculate the composition of ices incorporated in the interior of Ceres. Utilizing a time-dependent solar nebula model, we show that icy solids can drift from beyond 5 au to the present location of the asteroid and be preserved from vaporization. We argue that volatiles were trapped in the outer solar nebula in the form of clathrate hydrates, hydrates and pure condensates prior to having been incorporated in icy solids and subsequently in Ceres. Under the assumption that most of volatiles were not vaporized during the accretion phase and the thermal evolution of Ceres, we determine the per mass abundances with respect to H₂O of CO₂, CO, CH₄, N₂, NH₃, Ar, Xe and Kr in the interior of the asteroid. The Dawn space mission, scheduled to explore Ceres in August 2014, may have the capacity to test some predictions. We also show that an in situ measurement of the D/H ratio in H₂O in Ceres could constrain the distance range in the solar nebula where its icy planetesimals were produced.     

Asteroids on Earth-like orbits and their origin

The orbit of 1991 VG and a set of other asteroids whose orbits are very similar to that of the Earth have been examined. Its origin has been speculated to be a returning spacecraft, lunar ejecta or a low-inclination Amor- or Apollo-class object. The latter is arguably the more likely source, which has been investigated here. The impact probability for these objects has been calculated, and while it is larger than that of a typical near-Earth asteroid (NEA), it is still less than 1:200 000 over the next 5000 yr. In addition, the probability of an NEA ever ending up on an Earth-like orbit has been obtained from numerical simulations and turned out to be about 1:20 000, making this a rare class of objects. The typical time spent in this state is about 10 000 yr, much less than the typical NEA lifetime of 10 Myr.     

The resonant structure of Jupiter's Trojan asteroids – II. What happens for different configurations of the planetary system

In a previous paper, we have found that the resonance structure of the present Jupiter Trojan swarms could be split up into four different families of resonances. Here, in a first step, we generalize these families in order to describe the resonances occurring in Trojan swarms embedded in a generic planetary system. The location of these families changes under a modification of the fundamental frequencies of the planets and we show how the resonant structure would evolve during a planetary migration. We present a general method, based on the knowledge of the fundamental frequencies of the planets and on those that can be reached by the Trojans, which makes it possible to predict and localize the main events arising in the swarms during migration. In particular, we show how the size and stability of the Trojan swarms are affected by the modification of the frequencies of the planets. Finally, we use this method to study the global dynamics of the Jovian Trojan swarms when Saturn migrates outwards. Besides the two resonances found by Morbidelli et al. which could have led to the capture of the current population just after the crossing of the 2:1 orbital resonance, we also point out several sequences of chaotic events that can influence the Trojan population.     

The resonant structure of Jupiter's Trojan asteroids – I. Long-term stability and diffusion

We study the global dynamics of the jovian Trojan asteroids by means of the frequency map analysis. We find and classify the main resonant structures that serve as skeleton of the phase space near the Lagrangian points. These resonances organize and control the long-term dynamics of the Trojans. Besides the secondary and secular resonances, that have already been found in other asteroid sets in mean motion resonance (e.g. main belt, Kuiper belt), we identify a new type of resonance that involves secular frequencies and the frequency of the great inequality, but not the libration frequency. Moreover, this new family of resonances plays an important role in the slow transport mechanism that drives Trojans from the inner stable region to eventual ejections. Finally, we relate this global view of the dynamics with the observed Trojans, identify the asteroids that are close to these resonances and study their long-term behaviour.     

A possible long-lived asteroid population at the equilateral Lagrangian points of Saturn

The Lagrangian equilateral points of a planetary orbit are points of equilibrium that trail at 60°, ahead (L4) or behind (L5), the trajectory of a planet. Jupiter is the only major planet in our Solar system harbouring a known population of asteroids at those locations. Here we report the existence of orbits close to the Lagrangian points of Saturn, stable at time-scales comparable to the age of the Solar system. By scaling with respect to the Trojan population we have estimated the number of objects that would populate the regions, which gives a significant figure. Moreover, mutual physical collisions over the age of the Solar system would be very rare, so the evaporation rate of this swarm arising from mutual interactions would be very low. A population of asteroids not self-collisionally evolved after their formation stage would be the first to be observed in our planetary system. Our present estimations are based on the assumption that the capture efficiency at Saturn's equilateral points is comparable with the one corresponding to Jupiter, thus our figures may be taken as upper limits. In any case, observational constraints on their number would provide fundamental clues to our understanding of the history of the outer Solar system. If they existed, the surface properties and size distribution of those objects would represent unusually valuable fossil records of our early planetary system.     

The effect on the Edgeworth–Kuiper Belt of a large distant tenth planet

We investigate the orbital evolution of both real and hypothetical Edgeworth–Kuiper Objects in order to determine whether any conclusions can be drawn regarding the existence, or otherwise, of the tenth planet postulated by Murray. We find no qualitative difference in the orbital evolution, and so conclude that the hypothetical planet has been placed on an orbit at such a large heliocentric distance that no evidence for the existence, or non-existence, can be found from a study of the known Edgeworth–Kuiper Objects.     

How selection and weighting of astrometric observations influence the impact probability. The case of asteroid (99942) Apophis

The aim of this paper is to show that in the case of a low probability of asteroid collision with the Earth, the appropriate selection and weighting of the data are crucial for the impact investigation and for analysing the impact possibilities using extensive numerical simulations. By means of the Monte Carlo special method, a large number of 'clone' orbits have been generated. A full range of orbital elements in the six-dimensional parameter space, that is, in the entire confidence region allowed by the observational material, has been examined. On the basis of 1000 astrometric observations of (99942) Apophis, the best solutions for the geocentric encounter distance of  6.065 ± 0.081 R_⊕  (without perturbations by asteroids) or  6.064 ± 0.095 R_⊕  (including perturbations by the four largest asteroids) were derived for the close encounter with the Earth on 2029 April 13. The present uncertainties allow for special configurations ('keyholes') during this encounter that may lead to very close encounters in future approaches of Apophis. Two groups of keyholes are connected with the close encounter with the Earth in 2036 (within the minimal distance of  5.7736−5.7763 R_⊕  on 2029 April 13) and 2037 (within the minimal distance of  6.3359–6.3488 R_⊕  ). The nominal orbits for our most accurate models run almost exactly in the middle of these two impact keyhole groups. A very small keyhole for the impact in 2076 has been found between these groups at the minimal distance of 5.97347   R_⊕  . This keyhole is close to the nominal orbit. The present observations are not sufficiently accurate to eliminate definitely the possibility of impact with the Earth in 2036 and for many years after.     

Yarkovsky origin of the unstable asteroids in the 2/1 mean motion resonance with Jupiter

The 2/1 mean motion resonance with Jupiter, intersecting the main asteroid belt at ≈3.27  au, contains a small population of objects. Numerical investigations have classified three groups within this population: asteroids residing on stable orbits (i.e. Zhongguos), those on marginally stable orbits with dynamical lifetimes of the order of 100 Myr (i.e. Griquas), and those on unstable orbits. In this paper, we reexamine the origin, evolution and survivability of objects in the 2/1 population. Using recent asteroid survey data, we have identified 100 new members since the last search, which increases the resonant population to 153. The most interesting new asteroids are those located in the theoretically predicted stable island A, which until now had been thought to be empty. We also investigate whether the population of objects residing on the unstable orbits could be resupplied by material from the edges of the 2/1 resonance by the thermal drag force known as the Yarkovsky effect (and by the YORP effect, which is related to the rotational dynamics). Using N -body simulations, we show that test particles pushed into the 2/1 resonance by the Yarkovsky effect visit the regions occupied by the unstable asteroids. We also find that our test bodies have dynamical lifetimes consistent with the integrated orbits of the unstable population. Using a semi-analytical Monte Carlo model, we compute the steady-state size distribution of magnitude   H < 14  asteroids on unstable orbits within the resonance. Our results provide a good match with the available observational data. Finally, we discuss whether some 2/1 objects may be temporarily captured Jupiter-family comets or near-Earth asteroids.     

Precovery of near‐Earth asteroids by a citizen‐science project of the Spanish Virtual Observatory

This article describes a citizen‐science project conducted by the Spanish Virtual Observatory (SVO) to improve the orbits of near‐Earth asteroids (NEAs) using data from astronomical archives. The list of NEAs maintained at the Minor Planet Center (MPC) is checked daily to identify new objects or changes in the orbital parameters of already catalogued objects. Using NEODyS we compute the position and magnitude of these objects at the observing epochs of the 938 046 images comprising the Eigth Data Release of the Sloan Digitised Sky Survey (SDSS). If the object lies within the image bound‐aries and the magnitude is brighter than the limiting magnitude, then the associated image is visually inspected by the project's collaborators (the citizens) to confirm or discard the presence of the NEA. If confirmed, accurate coordinates and, sometimes, magnitudes are submitted to the MPC. Using this methodology, 3226 registered users have made during the first fifteen months of the project more than 167 000 measurements which have improved the orbital elements of 551 NEAs (6% of the total number of this type of asteroids). Even more remarkable is the fact that these results have been obtained at zero cost to telescope time as NEAs were serendipitously observed while the survey was being carried out. This demonstrates the enormous scientific potential hidden in astronomical archives. The great reception of the project as well as the results obtained makes it a valuable and reliable tool for improving the orbital parameters of near‐Earth asteroids. (© 2014 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)