近60年中国探空观测气温变化趋势及不确定性研究

基于118站探空资料研究了近60年中国850—100 hPa气温变化趋势及季节和区域特征,并通过与1979—2017年卫星微波气温的对比研究了中国探空气温均一化的不确定性。研究表明,1958—2017年中国平均对流层气温呈上升趋势,300 hPa升温最为显著,平流层下层（100 hPa）为降温趋势。冬季对流层上层升温趋势和夏季平流层下层降温趋势较强。1979—2017年较整个时段对流层升温趋势较强,平流层下层降温趋势较弱。青藏高原和西北地区对流层上层升温趋势较强。通过与卫星微波气温和邻近探空站探空气温的对比以及均一化前后日夜气温差值检测出中国探空均一化气温仍残存非均一性问题。由于参照序列的局限性,均一化未能完全去除21世纪最初10年中国探空系统变化造成的对流层中、上层至平流层下层气温系统性下降的影响,导致中国对流层上层升温趋势被低估和平流层下层降温趋势被高估。未来可通过参考卫星微波气温和邻近探空站序列调整非均一性订正顺序并增加合理性检验等方法改进中国探空气温均一化方案。      

基于昼夜温差序列非均一性的高空温度订正

利用中国东部地区75个高空探测站1958－2005年逐日08：00和20：00资料和元数据信息,采用昼夜温度对比和二相线性回归方法,对不同等压面的温度序列进行均一性检测和订正。在此基础上,以最大缺测率30 %作为序列取舍标准,对49个探空站订正前后的年平均温度变化趋势进行了对比分析。结果表明：探空仪器变化和辐射订正方法改变是造成中国东部地区高空温度序列非均一性的主要原因,1966年前后和2000年前后是两个较为可靠的间断点,且1966年前后的非均一性更突出。非均一性最明显的等压面主要在100 hPa。1958－2005年,500 hPa以下等压面温度的上升趋势较订正前减弱,但200 hPa到50 hPa等压面温度的下降趋势也被削弱,削弱幅度为0.04－0.08 ℃/10 a。与1958－2005年相比,1979年以来东部地区对流层各层温度增温趋势明显,而平流层底层降温趋势也更加显著,该时段内订正前后温度变化趋势差异较小。     

Intercomparison of Humidity and Temperature Sensors: GTS1, Vaisala RS80, and CFH

GTS1 digital radiosonde, developed by the Shanghai Changwang Meteorological Science and Technology Company in 1998, is now widely used in operational radiosonde stations in China. A preliminary comparison of simultaneous humidity measurements by the GTS1 radiosonde, the Vaisala RS80 radiosonde, and the Cryogenic Frostpoint Hygrometer (CFH), launched at Kunming in August 2009, reveals a large dry bias produced by the GTS1 humidity sensor. The average relative dry bias is in the order of 10% below 500 hPa, increasing rapidly to 30% above 500 hPa, and up to 55% at 310 hPa. A much larger dry bias is observed in the daytime, and this daytime effect increases with altitude. The GTS1 radiosonde fails to respond to humidity changes in the upper troposphere, and sometimes even in the middle troposphere. The failure of GTS1 in the middle and upper troposphere will result in significant artificial humidity shifts in radiosonde climate records at stations in China where a transition from mechanical to digital radiosondes has occurred. A comparison of simultaneous temperature observations by the GTS1 radiosonde and the Vaisala RS80 radiosonde suggests that these two radiosondes provide highly reproducible temperature measurements in the troposphere, but produce opposite biases for daytime and nighttime measurements in the stratosphere. In the stratosphere, the GTS1 shows a warm bias (<0.5 K) in the daytime and a relatively large cool bias (-0.2 K to -1.6 K) at nighttime.     

近50年我国探空温度序列均一化及变化趋势

利用1958—2005年我国116个站探空温度序列研究了我国高空温度变化趋势。首先通过静力学质量控制和两相回归法对原始序列进行了均一化处理。我国探空温度序列存在明显的间断点, 间断点的订正对于序列的趋势影响较为显著。缺测率是影响我国探空温度序列应用性的重要因子, 也是区域平均趋势统计中台站取舍的指标, 减少台站总数会削弱我国对流层升温和平流层降温的变化趋势。分析表明: 70%作为最小资料有效率标准最为合理。为满足最小资料有效率, 选取92个站统计我国高空温度变化趋势的区域平均值。结果表明: 1958-2005年, 平流层下层和对流层上层降温, 对流层中、低层升温; 高空温度变化趋势与研究时段明显相关, 1958-1978年我国高空大气整层均为降温; 1979—2005年, 对流层中低层升温最为明显, 增暖的幅度随高度增加而减小, 400 hPa以上各层转为降温。对流层的升温始于20世纪80年代, 升温幅度与全球尺度的平均值有所不同。     

Quantitative estimates of full glacial temperatures in equatorial Africa from palynological data*

This paper presents a new reconstruction of the mean annual temperature obtained from a high altitude pollen sequence in equatorial Africa (3°28S, 29°34E, 2240 m). It has been achieved with an extended modern African reference data set by adding spectra from 228 new sites and using another selection for pollen taxa. The purpose of this paper is to test how the obtained temperature value depends upon the availability of modern analogues. The results are in good agreement with those previously published, reinforcing the validity of the method. The mean standard error is reduced by 0.3°C. The mean temperature for the Holocene appears + 1.4°C warmer than the present and the last glacial maximum (25-18 kyrs BP) cooling is better specified at – 3 ± 1.9° C, a conservative value, more consistent with reconstructed sea surface temperature in the equatorial ocean.Contribution to Clima Locarno - Past and Present Climate Dynamics; Conference September 1990, Swiss Academy of Sciences — National Climate Program     

Vertical structure of recent arctic warming from observed data and reanalysis products

Spatiotemporal patterns of recent (1979–2008) air temperature trends are evaluated using three reanalysis datasets and radiosonde data. Our analysis demonstrates large discrepancies between the reanalysis datasets, possibly due to differences in the data assimilation procedures as well as sparseness and inhomogeneity of high-latitude observations. We test the robustness of arctic tropospheric warming based on the ERA-40 dataset. ERA-40 Arctic atmosphere temperatures tend to be closer to the observed ones in terms of root mean square error compared to other reanalysis products used in the article. However, changes in the ERA-40 data assimilation procedure produce unphysical jumps in atmospheric temperatures, which may be the likely reason for the elevated tropospheric warming trend in 1979–2002. NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data show that the near-surface upward temperature trend over the same period is greater than the tropospheric trend, which is consistent with direct radiosonde observations and inconsistent with ERA-40 results. A change of sign in the winter temperature trend from negative to positive in the late 1980s is documented in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere with a maximum over the Canadian Arctic, based on radiosonde data. This change from cooling to warming tendency is associated with weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex and shift of its center toward the Siberian coast and possibly can be explained by the changes in the dynamics of the Arctic Oscillation. This temporal pattern is consistent with multi-decadal variations of key arctic climate parameters like, for example, surface air temperature and oceanic freshwater content. Elucidating the mechanisms behind these changes will be critical to understanding the complex nature of high-latitude variability and its impact on global climate change.     

Urban heat island effect on annual mean temperature during the last 50 years in China

Summary Based on Chinas fifth population survey (2000) data and homogenized annual mean surface air temperature data, the urban heat island (UHI) effect on the warming during the last 50 years in China was analyzed in this study. In most cities with population over 10⁴, where there are national reference stations and principal stations, most of the temperature series are inevitably affected by the UHI effect. To detect the UHI effect, the annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) time series were firstly classified into 5 subregions by using Rotated Principal Components Analysis (RPCA) according to its high and low frequency climatic change features. Then the average UHI effect on each subregions regional annual mean STA was studied. Results indicate that the UHI effect on the annual mean temperatures includes three aspects: increase of the average values, decrease of variances and change of the climatic trends. The effect on the climatic trends is different from region to region. In the Yangtze River Valley and South China, the UHI effect enhances the warming trends by about 0.011°C/decade. In the other areas, such as Northeast, North-China, and Northwest, UHI has little impact on the warming trends of the regional annual temperature; while in the Southwest of China, introducing UHI stations slows down the warming trend by –0.006°C/decade. But no matter what subregion it is, the total warming/cooling of these effects is much smaller than the background change in regional temperature. The average UHI effect for the entire country, during the last 50 years is less than 0.06°C, which agrees well with the IPCC (2001). This suggests that we cannot conclude that urbanization during the last 50 years has had much obvious effect on the observed warming in China.     

青藏高原气温变化趋势与同纬度带其他地区的差异以及臭氧的可能作用

利用台站探空观测资料和卫星观测资料,分析了1979—2002年青藏高原上空温度的变化趋势。结果表明:高原地区上空平流层低层和对流层上层的温度与对流层中低层具有反相变化趋势。平流层低层和对流层上层降温,温度出现降低趋势,降温幅度无论是年平均还是季节平均都比全球平均降温幅度更大。高原上空对流层中低层增温,温度显示出增加的趋势,并且比同纬度中国东部非高原地区有更强的增温趋势。对1979—2002年卫星臭氧资料的分析表明,青藏高原上空臭氧总量在每个季节都呈现出明显的下降趋势,并且比同纬度带其他地区下降得更快。由于青藏高原上空臭氧有更大幅度的减少,造成高原平流层对太阳紫外辐射吸收比其他地区更少,使进入对流层的辐射更多,从而导致高原上空平流层低层和对流层上层降温比其他地区更强,而对流层中低层增温更大。因此,高原上空比其他地区更大幅度的臭氧总量减少可能是造成青藏高原上空与同纬度其他地区温度变化趋势差异的一个重要原因。     

30-Year atmospheric temperature record derived by one-dimensional variational data assimilation of MSU/AMSU-A observations

In the past, satellite observations of the microwave radiation emitted from the atmosphere have been directly utilized for deriving the climate tends of vertical-layer-averaged atmospheric temperatures. This study presents the 30-year atmospheric temperature trend derived by one-dimensional variational (1D-Var) data assimilation of Microwave Sounding Unit/Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (MSU/AMSU-A) observations. Firstly, the radiance measurements from MSU on board the early National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-6 to NOAA-14 and AMSU-A on board NOAA-15 to -19 have been inter-calibrated to form a fundamental climate data record. A 1D-Var method is then employed to establish the thematic climate data record of atmospheric temperature profiles that are appropriate for climate change study. Verification of the MSU/AMSU-A derived temperature profiles with collocated Global Positioning System radio occultation data confirms a reasonable good accuracy of the derived atmospheric temperature profiles in the troposphere and low stratosphere. Finally, the global climate trend of the atmospheric temperature in clear-sky conditions is deduced, showing not only a global warming in the troposphere and a cooling in the stratosphere, but also a stronger warming in the upper troposphere than in the low troposphere.     

探空资料中的人为误差对中国温度长期变化趋势的影响

利用1958～2005年探空温度序列, 通过质量控制、均一化处理和序列缺测率分析, 探讨了探空资料中人为误差对中国高空气温变化趋势的影响。中国探空温度序列存在明显的间断点, 72%的序列包含2～4个间断点。相应的订正总体上降低了1958年以来平流层低层降温和对流层升温趋势, 如700 hPa和100 hPa平均趋势值分别降低0.12 K/10 a和0.04 K/10 a。缺测率是气温区域平均趋势估算的重要参数, 30%作为最大缺测率是中国探空温度序列适宜的取样标准。提高取样标准 (台站数减少) 使1958～2005年间对流层上层和平流层下层的降温趋势减弱。中国高空气温变化趋势与全球或北半球大体一致, 但也有不同特点: 500 hPa以下大气趋于升温, 以上则趋于降温, 最大降温趋势位于对流上部的300 hPa, 而且各气候区间区域差异性十分明显。     

Nitrate in the atmospheric boundary layer of the tropical South Pacific: Implications regarding sources and transport

Weekly bulk aerosol samples collected at Funafuti, Tuvalu (8°30S, 179°12E), American Samoa (14°15S, 170°35W), and Rarotonga (21°15S, 159°45W), from 1983 through most of 1987 have been analyzed for nitrate and other constituents. The mean nitrate concentration is about 0.11 g m^–3 at each of these stations: 0.107±0.011 g m^–3 at Funafuti; 0.116±0.008 at American Samoa; and 0.117±0.010 at Rarotonga. Previous measurements of mineral aerosol and trace metal concentrations at American Samoa are among the lowest ever recorded for the near-surface troposphere and indicate that this region is minimally affected by transport of soil material and pollutants from the continents. Consequently, the nitrate concentration of 0.11 g m^–3 can be regarded as the natural level for the remote marine boundary layer of the tropical South Pacific Ocean. In contrast, over the tropical North Pacific which is significantly impacted by the transport of material from Asia and North America, the mean nitrate concentrations are about three times higher, 0.29 and 0.36 g m^–3 at Midway and Oahu, respectively. The major sources of the nitrate over the tropical South Pacific are still very uncertain. A very significant correlation between the nitrate concentrations at American Samoa and the concentrations of ²¹⁰Pb suggests that transport from continental sources might be important. This continental source could be lightning, which occurs most frequently over the tropical continents. A near-zero correlation with ⁷Be indicates that the stratosphere and upper troposphere are probably not the major sources. A significant biogenic source would be consistent with the higher mean nitrate concentrations, 0.16 to 0.17 g m^–3, found over the equatorial Pacific at Fanning Island (3°55N, 159°20W) and Nauru (0°32S, 166°57E). The lack of correlation between nitrate and nss sulfate at American Samoa does not necessarily preclude an important role for marine biogenic sources.     

Recent warming in a small region with semi-oceanic climate, 1949–1998: what is the ground truth?

Summary Trends of monthly air temperature extremes were investigated in five meteorological stations of the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg during the period 1949–1998. The application of an innovative homogenization method based on the concept of relative homogeneity to climatic time series allows identifying multiple break points, as well as correcting data series in an objective and robust statistical way. The rise of maximum temperature (Tmax) has occurred at a rate of 1.5 times that of the minimum temperature (Tmin) in winter (+1.4°C versus +0.9°C) and summer (+1.4°C versus +0.8°C). No trend in temperature extremes was found in autumn, while spring was affected by a small warming (+0.3°C) of Tmin and no change in Tmax resulting in a decrease of the diurnal temperature range (DTR) (–0.3°C). In spring, a strong positive linear relationship between Tmin warming and local terrain slope could be found. Comparison to new-gridded large-scale climatologies indicates generally close agreement to temperature trends during the 1949–1998 period, while a lower local warming was observed in summer during the post-1975 period following the changing-point year of atmospheric circulation over North-western Europe. This study shows that the question of data homogeneity is not trivial and should receive careful attention before quantifying historical temperature trends and identifying their spatial patterns at regional scale.     

Validation and Application of Reanalysis Temperature Data over the Tibetan Plateau

The Tibetan Plateau has substantial impacts on the weather and climate of the Northern Hemisphere,due in large part to the thermal effects of the plateau surface.Surface temperature over the Tibetan Plateau is the most important parameter in determining these thermal effects.We present a method for verifying widely used reanalysis temperature products from NCEP-R2,ERA-Interim,and JRA-25 over the Tibetan Plateau,with the aim of obtaining a reliable picture of surface temperature and its changes over the plateau.Reanalysis data are validated against the topography elevation,satellite observations,and radiosonde data.ERA-Interim provides the most reliable estimates of Tibetan Plateau surface temperature among these three reanalyses.We therefore use this dataset to study the climatology and trends of surface temperature over the Tibetan Plateau.ERA-Interim data indicate a dramatic warming over the Tibetan Plateau from 1979 to2010,with warming rates of 0.33℃ per decade in annual mean temperature,0.22℃ per decade in summer and0.47℃ per decade in winter mean temperatures.Comparison with the results of previous studies suggests that surface warming over the Tibetan Plateau has accelerated during the past 30 years.This warming is distributed heterogeneously across the Tibetan Plateau,possibly due to topographic effects.     

Air Temperature Changes over the Tibetan Plateau and Other Regions in the Same Latitudes and the Role of Ozone Depletion

Using radiosonde and satellite observations, we investigated the trends of air temperature changes over the Tibetan Plateau （TP） in comparison with those over other regions in the same latitudes from 1979 to 2002. It is shown that Over the TP, the trends of air temperature changes in the upper troposphere to lower stratosphere were out of phase with those in the lower to middle troposphere. Air temperature decreased and a decreasing trend appeared in the upper troposphere to lower stratosphere. The amplitude of the annual or seasonal mean temperature decreases over the TP was larger than that over the whole globe. In the lower to middle troposphere over the TP, temperature increased, and the increasing trend was stronger than that over the non-plateau regions in the same latitudes in the eastern part of China. Meanwhile, an analysis of the satellite observed ozone data in the same period of 1979-2002 shows that over the TP, the total ozone amount declined in all seasons, and the ozone depleted the most compared with the situations in other regions in the same latitudes. It is proposed that the difference between the ozone depletion over the TP and that over other regions in the same latitudes may lead to the difference in air temperature changes. Because of the aggravated depletion of ozone over the TP, less （more） ultraviolet radiation was absorbed in the upper troposphere to lower stratosphere （lower to middle troposphere） over the TP, which favored a stronger cooling in the upper troposphere to lower stratosphere, and an intenser heating in the lower to middle troposphere over the TP. Therefore, the comparatively more depletion of ozone over the TP is possibly a reason for the difference between the air temperature changes over the TP and those over other regions in the same latitudes.     

Lake ice records used to detect historical and future climatic changes

Historical ice records, such as freeze and breakup dates and the total duration of ice cover, can be used as a quantitative indicator of climatic change if long homogeneous records exist and if the records can be calibrated in terms of climatic changes. Lake Mendota, Wisconsin, has the longest uninterrupted ice records available for any lake in North America dating back to 1855. These records extend back prior to any reliable air temperature data in the midwestern region of the U.S. and demonstrate significant warming of approximately 1.5 °C in fall and early winter temperatures and 2.5 °C in winter and spring temperatures during the past 135 years. These changes are not completely monotonie, but rather appear as two shorter periods of climatic change in the longer record. The first change was between 1875 and 1890, when fall, winter, and spring air temperatures increased by approximately 1.5 °C. The second change, earlier ice breakup dates since 1979, was caused by a significant increase in winter and early spring air temperatures of approximately 1.3 °C. This change may be indicative of shifts in regional climatic patterns associated with global warming, possibly associated with the Greenhouse Effect.With the relationships between air temperature and freeze and break up dates, we can project how the ice cover of Lake Mendota should respond to future climatic changes. If warming occurs, the ice cover for Lake Mendota should decrease approximately 11 days per 1 °C increase. With a warming of 4 to 5 °C, years with no ice cover should occur in approximately 1 out of 15 to 30 years.     

A Climate Change Scenario for the Tropics

This paper describes the construction of a climate change scenario for a region representing the extended Tropics – 30° N to 30° S – using a methodology that combines results from a simple climate model and a Global Climate Model (GCM) transient climate change experiment. The estimated date by which this climate change scenario might be realized ranges from as early as the end of the 2030s to as late as well into the 22nd century. The central estimate is for this scenario to describe the climate of the 2060s, which would represent a global warming rate of about 0.2 °C per decade, with associated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations estimated to be about 560 ppmv, 55% higher than 1990 levels. The role of anthropogenic aerosols in offsetting part of this future global warming and altering the regional character of the changes has not been considered. The paper presents changes in mean temperature; mean rainfall; rainfall seasonality, variability, frequency, and intensity and soil moisture. These patterns of change derive from only one GCM climate change experiment; different experiments would yield different patterns for the same global warming. There is also some discussion about possible changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity, although since TCs remain poorly modelled in GCMs, the full range of possibilities (from reduced activity, through no change, to increased activity) should be considered in any impact assessment.     

Ozone variations in the Northern polar region

Summary All total ozone observations ever made in the Northern polar region, including some from the 1930's, have been corrected and the basic climatology presented. The long-term ozone changes were considered in relation to the stratospheric temperatures. For each deviation from the monthly normal of the 100 hPa temperature by 1°C, there was found to be a corresponding 5–6 m atm-cm change in the monthly ozone deviation. A distinction between the ozone regimes over the Scandinavian, Canadian and East Siberian sectors of the polar region was noted. The strong appearance of the QBO (Quasi Biennial Oscillation) in the interannual ozone fluctuations was obvious. It is demonstrated that for the past three decades the total ozone experienced a few periods with positive and a few periods with negative deviations. In view of this, trends in ozone must obviously be based on greater than 10 years of data. During 1964–86, the weighted trend over the polar stations was (–0.9±0.4)% per decade. There have been, however, three periods (1958–64, 1968–76 and 1979–86), coinciding with the declining phase of the 11 year sunspot cycle, during which the ozone at all polar stations has been declining by about 0.5% per year (or less if the QBO component is filtered out). Some of the differences with Antarctic ozone are mentioned and the dominant role of the stratospheric circulation for the ozone variations is discussed. In general the Arctic ozone observations show no evidence of a major ozone decline similar to that over Antarctica.With 9 Figures     

On the Response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Greenhouse Climate Change

Numerical computations are performed with the three-dimensional polythermal ice-sheet model SICOPOLIS in order to investigate the possible impact of a greenhouse-gas-induced climate change on the Greenland ice sheet. The assumed increase of the mean annual air temperature above the ice covers a range from T = 1°C to 12°C, and several parameterizations for the snowfall and the surface melting are considered. The simulated shrinking of the ice sheet is a smooth function of the temperature rise, indications for the existence of critical thresholds of the climate input are not found. Within 1000 model years, the ice-volume decrease is limited to 10% of the present volume for T 3°C, whereas the most extreme scenario, T = 12°C, leads to an almost entire disintegration, which corresponds to a sea-level equivalent of 7 m. The different snowfall and melting parameterizations yield an uncertainty range of up to 20% of the present ice volume after 1000 model years.     

1958～2005年中国高空大气比湿变化

利用经过质量控制和均一化的92站探空露点温度序列,研究了中国高空大气比湿气候学特征和1958～2005年比湿时间、空间演变以及不同时段线性变化趋势地区和季节差异。中国比湿气候场特征显示,垂直方向上90%以上的水汽集中在对流层中低层,空间呈南高北低的纬向分布。通过累积距平、滑动平均和突变点分析等方法研究了中国平均高空比湿的年代际变化,得到1958～2005年中国对流层中低层大气比湿经历“湿”、“干”、“湿”阶段性变化。不同时段线性变化趋势分析表明,1958～2005年对流层低层比湿呈上升趋势,对流层中层、高层和平流层下层为下降趋势;1979～2005年对流层低层上升趋势和对流层高层下降趋势均较整个时段明显增强。近50年来中国高空各层温度与比湿变化基本同步,统计达到显著相关,说明温度是影响比湿变化的重要因子。趋势的空间分布显示对流层下层全国大部比湿为上升趋势,且1979以来上升趋势更加明显,对流层中层趋势呈北升南降分布,对流层高层多为下降趋势。中国五个分区中西北地区对流层低层比湿上升趋势最明显,长江和华南地区升幅较小。1958～2005年对流层下层各季节比湿变化趋势差异较明显,上升趋势发生在夏、冬两季,1979～2005年四季比湿均呈上升趋势,其中夏季上升趋势最为明显。     

Uncertainty estimation of the global temperature trends for multiple radiosondes, reanalyses, and CMIP3/IPCC climate model simulations

Based on three groups of datasets that include radiosondes, reanalyses, and climate model simulations (e.g., Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP3) from 1979 to 2008, the interannual variability, global temperature trends, and their uncertainty using ensemble spread among intra-group and inter-group datasets have been discussed. The results show that the interannual temperature variability increased from the troposphere to stratosphere, and the maximum occurs around 50?hPa. The CMIP3 climate models have the largest discrepancy in the stratosphere. The intra-group correlations at 500?hPa generally show high similarity within each data group while the inter-group correlations between reanalyses and the CMIP3 climate model simulations indicate lesser similarity. In contrast, the inter-group correlation at 50?hPa is improved except with the Japanese 25-year Reanalysis Project (JRA-25) dataset, and the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) reanalysis shows a weak cross correlation. The global temperature trends are highly dependent on the individual data sources. Compared to the radiosondes, the reanalyses show a large ensemble spread of trends in the stratosphere, and the CMIP3 climate model simulations have a large ensemble spread in the height of the crossover point where tropospheric warming changes into stratospheric cooling. The largest ensemble spread among the reanalyses in the stratosphere is mainly from the large discrepancy in the JRA-25 reanalysis after 1998 and a relatively weak anomaly in the 20CR before 1986. The largest ensemble spread among the CMIP3 climate models in the troposphere is related to the influence of both volcanic eruptions and El Ni?o/La Ni?a–Southern Oscillation events. The strong anomalies corresponding to the volcanic eruptions of El Chichon in 1982 and Mt Pinatubo in 1991 are clearly identified in the stratosphere. These volcanic eruptions reduced the warming in the troposphere and strengthened the cooling in the stratosphere during the most recent 30?years.