A probabilistic framework to make a decision on the post-earthquake functionality of bridges considering the damage,residual displacement,and aftershock

Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering - Making a decision on the post-earthquake functionality of structures has always been one of the most challenging issues in earthquake engineering. There is an...     

Limitations and innovations in the control of environmental impacts from petroleum industry activities in the Arctic

Exploitation of petroleum reserves in polar regions involves exploration, field development, production and transportation, all of which have a potential for impact on the arctic environment and its people. The magnitude of such impact depends greatly on specific geographic circumstances, and also on the application of innovative approaches to create an operating environment that maximizes both safety and environmental mitigation. The overall issues are complex from industrial, environmental and societal perspectives.

The impact of the petroleum industry in Arctic environments is discussed in relation to a number of different activities. In general, the issues are categorized as those associated with routine activities (for example, seismic surveys, transportation, drilling and production discharges) and accidental events, in particular oil spills. While it is possible to state that the severity of impact is generally related to the size of a spill, it is not possible to be categorical about this in that site-specific variables are of great importance.     

The main issues affecting coasts of the Indian and western Pacific Oceans: a meta-analysis from Seas at the Millennium

A review of the world oceans in three volumes by 365 scientists, provides scope for several ‘meta-analyses' of the main problems affecting over 100 areas in the year 2000. This article summarises the main issues affecting a sub-set of the reviewed areas, covering Asian, African and Arabian countries dealt with in Volume 2, which included over 50 articles. From all issues raised, assessment is made of the nature of the major ones, including evaluation of reasons why so many of them remain important issues after so much attention to them. These include long standing problems, several problems more newly flagged as becoming particularly important, the issue of global warming and no less than three related issues connected with fishing and over exploitation. One or two issues such as industrial pollution and sewage, previously considered of almost universal concern, almost traditional pollution issues even, continue to feature strongly for some countries, but while these were almost always referred to in Seas chapters, by and large these categories appear not to be the most pressing of issues today, except in localized areas (albeit areas where huge numbers of people live). Perhaps other issues have simply taken over. They are excluded from this article.     

Spatial scale dependency issues in the application of the Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation (MUSLE)

ABSTRACT

The MUSLE is used within hydrological models to estimate sediment yields from catchments of various sizes, but the spatial scale dependency issues associated with estimating the MUSLE parameters have not been adequately addressed. In the absence of detailed observed data on both hydrological response and sediment yield, some analytical approaches and hypothetical examples are presented to identify the key issues. The results suggest that methods used to estimate both the erosivity and topographic factors are scale dependent, particularly if a lumped or semi-distributed modelling approach is used. The conclusion is that spatial scale dependencies will add to the uncertainties inherent in the use of the MUSLE if not carefully understood and appropriately addressed. One suggested approach is to apply the erosivity equation to a fixed (small) representative area and then scale up to the total catchment, an approach that recognizes the variability of averaged parameters across different spatial scales.     

基于减法聚类模糊神经网络的砂土液化势判别

砂土地震液化问题是岩土地震工程学的重要研究课题之一。在分析模糊神经网络原理的基础上,利用减法聚类算法对自适应模糊推理系统进行优化,并建立了砂土地震液化的模糊神经网络模型。然后,将该模型用于实际工程的砂土液化判别中,并与传统砂土液化判别方法结果进行对比。判别结果表明:文中建立的模糊神经网络模型具有较强的学习功能,用于砂土地震液化判别中是可行的和有效的。     

AP1000抗震分析与设计特点研究

对AP1000抗震分析与设计的主要特点进行分析,并将这些特点同现有核电站的设计状况和我国潜在厂址的情况进行对比.研究侧重于抗震分类、抗震设防水准及设计地震、地基岩土条件、抗震裕度分析等几个主要方面.通过研究,把握AP1000抗震分析与设计的主要特点,对其设计特点和适应性加深理解,并提出需要继续跟踪研究和关注的问题.研究成果可以为后续研究和AP1000堆型的工程引进提供参考和基础素材.其中关于抗震裕度分析的研究内容对于在我国开展在役核电厂的地震安全评估和3级PRA分析亦有借鉴意义.     

Effects of local site conditions on the seismic response of municipal solid waste landfills

Over the last decade, the seismic response of landfills made of municipal solid waste has drawn attention mainly due to the environmental and public-health issues that could be raised in the event of a failure. Nevertheless, there are several associated technical issues that have not been adequately investigated. One of these is the impact of local site conditions on the earthquake-induced accelerations and, thereby, on the seismic design of a landfill. This study presents the results of a parametric numerical simulation that has been performed in order to examine the effects of local site conditions on the dynamic response of a typical landfill. Emphasis is given on the special characteristics of ground motion, while the material nonlinearity of both soil and waste is taken into account by an equivalent-linear procedure. Results indicate that local site conditions may play a significant role in the seismic response of a landfill. However, this role cannot be judged a priori as beneficial or detrimental, as it depends not only on soil conditions and seismic excitation, but also on the material and geometric characteristics of the landfill.     

Issues in sediment toxicity and ecological risk assessment

This paper is based on a facilitated Workshop and Roundtable Discussion of key issues in sediment toxicology and ecological risk assessment (ERA) as applied to sediments that was held at the Conference on Dredged Material Management: Options and Environmental Considerations. The issues addressed included how toxicity is defined and perceived, how it is measured, and how it should be used within the context of ERA to support management decisions. The following conclusions were reached regarding scientific considerations of these issues. Toxicity is a measure of hazard and not a risk per se. Thus, toxicity testing is a means but not the end to understand risks of sediments. Toxicity testing cannot presently be replaced by chemical analyses to define hazard. Toxicity test organisms need to be appropriate to the problem being addressed, and the results put into context relative to both reference and baseline comparisons to understand hazard. Use of toxicity tests in sediment ERAs requires appropriate endpoints and risk hypotheses, considering ecological not just statistical significance, and recognizing that hazard does not equate to risk. Toxicity should be linked to population and community response to support decision-making, assessing possible genotypic adaptations that can influence risk estimates, and addressing uncertainty. Additionally, several key scientific issues were identified to improve future sediment ERAs, including the need to improve basic understanding of ecological mechanisms and processes, recognition of variability in the assessment process, and an improved focus and ability to assess risks to populations and communities.     

Application of the ESI-2007 Scale for Estimating the Intensity of the Kultuk Earthquake,August 27, 2008 (South Baikal)

The paper deals with issues related to the testing of the ESI-2007 scale by using as an example the real seismic event that occurred on August 27, 2008 in South Baikal. The main objective of the paper is to carry out a comparative assessment of the earthquake’s intensity based on traditional macroseismic scales and environmental seismic intensity (ESI-2007) scales. The results of the macroseismic survey served as the initial data. Analysis has been made on the ESI-2007 scale in conformity with the requirements for seismic scales. Particular emphasis has been placed on the type (or rank) of the ESI-2007 scale. Such an investigation is one of the first cases of the application of a new scale by the example of a regional seismic event.     

地震现场灾情信息反馈途径和集成软件

在破坏性地震作用下,可导致人员伤亡、建筑物及基础设施破坏、财产损失、社会与经济秩序的混乱及生产系统停止运行等,现场灾情信息是地震现场应急指挥决策的重要依据,迅速、全面对这些信息进行采集与集成是非常重要的。分析了当前地震应急指挥技术系统建设中在该方面存在的一些问题,阐述了地震现场灾情信息分类,同时就其收集反馈途径和集成技术实现进行了研究,并以青岛市地震应急指挥决策软件系统为例,说明了该方法的实用性。     

From the editors

The year 2007 is a transformational one for us as the Journal of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration changes from a semi-annual to a quarterly schedule and is published by Springer Verlag. Beginning with Vol. 6, No. 1, four issues of about 100 pages each will be published each year. The journal will continue to be available in print format, and a new electronic offering will be accessible through SpringerLink, Springer's Internet portal. We believe     

Histogram and variogram inference in the multigaussian model

Several iterative algorithms are proposed to improve the histogram and variogram inference in the framework of the multigaussian model. The starting point is the variogram obtained after a traditional normal score transform. The subsequent step consists in simulating many sets of gaussian values with this variogram at the data locations, so that the ranking of the original values is honored. The expected gaussian transformation and the expected variogram are computed by an averaging operation over the simulated datasets. The variogram model is then updated and the procedure is repeated until convergence. Such an iterative algorithm can adapt to the case of tied data and despike the histogram. Two additional issues are also examined, referred to the modeling of the empirical transformation function and to the optimal pair weighting when computing the sample variogram.     

青藏高原内陆湖泊变化的遥感制图

青藏高原上的内陆湖泊群是气候变化的敏感指示器,获取近几十年来湖泊变化的动态信息对研究区域气候及环境变化具有重要的意义.本文讨论了多时相遥感湖泊变化研究中的几个关键问题--湖泊变化季节性因素、湖泊变化信息的提取以及大区域湖泊变化的分析方法,并利用Landsat长时间序列遥感数据,制作青藏高原1970s,1990s,200...     

Methodological considerations of probabilistic seismic hazard mapping

This paper presents a methodological discussion of several issues involved with the development of maps of seismic hazard. The points made are illustrated with worked examples, using Scotland as an illustrative case. The issues treated are divided under three headings: matters relating to the difference between hazard maps and site studies; matters concerned with the technical issues of mapping, and matters relating to the use to which hazard maps will be put. It is concluded that a hazard map cannot be an all-purpose substitute for site-specific studies, owing to the impracticality of ensuring all-round conservatism in a hazard map, and the lower level of detail (more broad-brush approach) in a regional mapping study. Also, since users of a hazard map are not necessarily going to be engineers, consideration should be given to the provision of maps expressed in parameters other than physical measures of ground motion. Intensity is useful here, since it relates to actual earthquake experience and to damage. One can also move to making maps of generic seismic risk even before one has data on the distribution of exposure and vulnerability. Discussion is made of the issue of testing the validity of hazard maps against real experience, with examples. If a map can be shown to accord with real observations, then it can be treated with greater confidence by users.     

Present-day stress-strain state in the upper crust of the Amurian lithosphere plate

Consideration is given to the issues of studying current geodynamic processes in the upper crust within the Amurian lithosphere plate. Present-day geodynamic processes in the lithospheric layer are shown to be located by different indicators that correspond to geological features of comparable scale and varying extension and are recognized by a set of investigative techniques. A variety of original data on vertical and horizontal motions of the surface is used to indicate the latest deformation processes. The best studied Trans-Baikal block was used as an example to analyse present-day geodynamics in the context of the tectonic flows conception. The present ideas concerning the stress-strained state of the upper part of the section within the Amurian plate have been refined based on non-uniformly scaled factors.     

CEDAR: A us program initiated for scientific achievement in aeronomy emphasizing the role,need and development of modern optical facilities

In early 1983 a campaign was initiated in the U.S.A. to acquire modern optical facilities focusing on the use of imaging detector technology to strengthen our spectroscopic interferometric, imaging and lidar capabilities to solve some of the major aeronomic scientific problems. These scientific problems were addressed by sub-committees for spectroscopic, interferometric, imaging and lidar facilities as well as by the aeronomy modeling and theoretical community. The sub-committees further defined the science and answered the question of how each facility could help solve the posed scientific problems using current capabilities, upgraded systems and new Class I facilities. The individual sub-committee reports are assembled in Volume II of the Coupling, Energetics and Dynamics of Atmospheric Regions (CEDAR) report. Volume I, synthesized by the Steering Committee, presents a three phase program over the next seven years aimed at the solution of the various CEDAR Science issues as the new facilities are developed.Recently, the CEDAR program expanded to include two additional sub-committee contributions from the radar community (both incoherent scatter, IS, and coherent) covering their roles in addressing the CEDAR Science issues.The solution of major aeronomic scientific problems through the cooperation and coordination of observations using all types of instruments, not exclusively optical, is now the main theme of the CEDAR program. In addition, it is clearly recognized that the global nature of many of the CEDAR Science issues requires the active support and involvement of the worldwide aeronomy scientific community. The scientific challenges are many, and the tasks of coordination and cooperation will be trying. However, the world aeronomy community will be justly rewarded by the resultant strides in understanding of the Coupling, Energetics and Dynamics of the Atmospheric Regions around the globe. This report will provide an overview of the CEDAR program, the types of optical facilities of interest and some of the scientific issues and proposed campaigns resulting from the 28–31 July 1986 CEDAR workshop.     

Opportunities and challenges of the Sponge City construction related to urban water issues in China

Waterlogging is one of the major water issues in most cities of China and directly restricts their urbanization processes. The construction of Sponge City is an effective approach to solving the urban water issues, particularly for the waterlogging. In this study, both the urban issues emerged at the stage of rapid urbanization in China and the demands as well as problems of Sponge City construction related with the water issues were investigated, and the opportunities and challenges for the Sponge City construction in the future were also proposed. It was found that the current stormwater management focused on the construction of gray infrastructures (e.g., drainage network and water tank) based on the fast discharge idea, which was costly and hard to catch up with the rapid expansion of city and its impervious surface, while green infrastructures (e.g., river, lake and wetland) were ignored. Moreover, the current construction of Sponge City was still limited to low impacted development (LID) approach which was concentrated on source control measures without consideration of the critical functions of surrounding landscapes (i.e., mountain, river, wetland, forest, farmland and lake), while application of the integrated urban water system approach and its supported technologies including municipal engineering, urban hydrology, environmental science, social science and ecoscape were relatively weak and needed to be improved. Besides, the lack of special Sponge City plan and demonstration area was also a considerable problem. In this paper, some perspectives on Good Sponge City Construction were proposed such as the point that idea of urban plan and construction should conform to the integral and systematic view of sustainable urban development. Therefore, both the basic theoretical research and the basic infrastructure construction such as monitoring system, drainage facility and demonstration area should be strengthened, meanwhile, the reformation and innovation in the urban water management system and the education system should also be urgently performed. The study was expected to provide a deeper thinking for the current Sponge City construction in China and to give some of suggestions for the future directions to urban plan and construction, as well as urban hydrology discipline.     

Flash flood forecasting model for the Ayalon stream,Israel

Abstract

A composite model for real time forecasting of flash floods in the Ayalon stream in central Israel has been constructed. The model is composed of four kinds of sub-models: an autoregressive model for discharges at upstream stations on the two major tributaries; a travel-time model for the flow from these stations to the downstream station located on the main stem of the stream; a time-area concentration curve for subwatershed drainage between the upstream and downstream stations; and a recession curve for the downstream station. The model incorporates an adaptive mechanism for continuous correction of forecast errors. This mechanism is calibrated during an initial period of operation, and is subsequently operated throughout a flow event. The model issues simultaneous forecasts for seven lead times ranging from 0.5 to 3.5 h. This provides a proper input for a flood warning system which is required for safe operation of a major highway running along the banks of a torrent stream in the metropolitan area of Tel-Aviv.