Climate and extrema of ocean waves in the East China Sea

Wave climate plays an important role in the air-sea interaction over marginal seas. Extreme wave height provides fundamental information for various ocean engineering practices, such as hazard mitigation, coastal structure design, and risk assessment. In this paper, we implement a third generation wave model and conduct a high-resolution wave hindcast over the East China Sea to reconstruct a 15-year wave field from 1988 to 2002 for derivation of monthly mean wave parameters and analysis of extreme wave conditions. The numerical results of the wave field are validated through comparison with satellite altimetry measurements, low-resolution reanalysis, and the ocean wave buoy record. The monthly averaged wave height and wave period show seasonal variation and refined spatial patterns of surface waves in the East China Sea. The climatological significant wave height and mean wave period decrease from the open ocean in the southeast toward the continental area in the northwest, with the pattern generally following the bathymetry. Extreme analysis on the significant wave height at the buoy station indicates the hindcast data underestimate the extreme values relative to the observations. The spatial pattern of extreme wave height shows single peak emerges at the southwest of Ryukyu Island although a wind forcing with multi-core structure at the extreme is applied.     

Global projections of changing risks of floods and droughts in a changing climate

Abstract

Simulated daily discharge derived from a relatively high-resolution (approximately 1.1-degree) general circulation model was used to investigate future projections of extremes in river discharge under global warming. The frequency of floods was projected to increase over many regions, except those including North America and central to western Eurasia. The drought frequency was projected to increase globally, while regions such as northern high latitudes, eastern Australia, and eastern Eurasia showed a decrease or no significant changes. Changes in flood and drought are not explained simply by changes in annual precipitation, heavy precipitation, or differences between precipitation and evapotranspiration. Several regions were projected to have increases in both flood frequency and drought frequency. Such regions show a decrease in the number of precipitation days, but an increase in days with heavy rain. Several regions show shifts in the flood season from springtime snowmelt to the summer period of heavy precipitation.     

Time-domain modeling of global ocean tides generated by the full lunisolar potential

Traditionally, ocean tides have been modeled in frequency domain with a forcing from selected tidal constituents. It is a natural approach; however, it implicitly neglects non-linearities of ocean dynamics. An alternative approach is time-domain modeling with a forcing given by the full lunisolar potential, i.e., all tidal waves are a priori included. This approach has been applied in several ocean tide models; however, some challenging tasks still remain, for example, assimilation of satellite altimetry data. In this paper, we introduce the assimilative scheme applicable in a time-domain model, which is an alternative to existing techniques used in assimilative ocean tide models. We present results from DEBOT, a global barotropic ocean tide model, which has two modes: DEBOT-h, a purely hydrodynamical mode, and DEBOT-a, an assimilative mode. The accuracy of DEBOT in both modes is assessed through a series of tests against tide gauge data which demonstrate that DEBOT is comparable to state-of-the-art global ocean tide models for major tidal constituents. Furthermore, as signals of all tidal frequencies are included in DEBOT, we also discuss modeling of minor tidal constituents and non-linear compound tides. Our modeling approach can be useful for those applications where the frequency domain approach is not suitable.     

Physical characteristics of high-rank coal reservoirs in different coal-body structures and the mechanism of coalbed methane production

The physical characteristics of coal reservoirs are important for evaluating the potential for gas desorption, diffusion, and seepage during coalbed methane (CBM) production, and influence the performance of CBM wells. Based on data from mercury injection experiments, low-temperature liquid nitrogen adsorption, isothermal adsorption, initial velocity tests of methane diffusion, and gas natural desorption data from a CBM field, herein the physical characteristics of reservoirs of high-rank coals with different coal-body structures are described, including porosity, adsorption/desorption, diffusion, and seepage. Geometric models are constructed for these reservoirs. The modes of diffusion are discussed and a comprehensive diffusion-seepage model is constructed. The following conclusions were obtained. First, the pore distribution of tectonically deformed coal is different from that of normal coal. Compared to normal coal, all types of pore, including micropores (<10 nm), transitional pores (10–100 nm), mesopores (100–1000 nm), and macropores (>1000 nm), are more abundant in tectonically deformed coal, especially mesopores and macropores. The increase in pore abundance is greater with increasing tectonic deformation of coal; in addition, the pore connectivity is altered. These are the key factors causing differences in other reservoir physical characteristics, such as adsorption/desorption and diffusion in coals with different coal-body structures. Second, normal and cataclastic coals mainly contain micropores. The lack of macropores and its bad connectivity limit gas desorption and diffusion during the early stage of CBM production. However, the good connectivity of micropores is favorable for gas desorption and diffusion in later gas production stage. Thus, because of the slow decline in the rate of gas desorption, long-term gas production can easily be obtained from these reservoirs. Third, under natural conditions the adsorption/desorption properties of granulated and mylonitized coal are good, and the diffusion ability is also enhanced. However, for in situ reservoir conditions, the high dependence of reservoir permeability on stress results in a weak seepage of gas; thus, desorption and diffusion is limited. Fourth, during gas production, the pore range in which transitional diffusion takes place always increases, but that for Fick diffusion decreases. This is a reason for the reduction in diffusion capacity, in which micropores and transitional pores are the primary factors limiting gas diffusion. Finally, the proposed comprehensive model of CBM production under in situ reservoir conditions elucidates the key factors limiting gas production, which is helpful for selection of reservoir stimulation methods.     

The nonlinear spin-up of a stratified ocean

Abstract

The adjustment of a nonlinear, quasigeostrophic, stratified ocean to an impulsively applied wind stress is investigated under the assumption that barotropic advection of vortex tube length is the most important nonlinearity. The present study complements the steady state theories which have recently appeared, and extends earlier, dissipationless, linear models.

In terms of Sverdrup transport, the equation for baroclinic evolution is a forced advection-diffusion equation. Solutions of this equation subject to a “tilted disk” Ekman divergence are obtained analytically for the case of no diffusion and numerically otherwise. The similarity between the present equation and that of a forced barotropic fluid with bottom topography is shown.

Barotropic flow, which is assumed to mature instantly, can reverse the tendency for westward propagation, and thus produce regions of closed geostrophic contours. Inside these regions, dissipation, or equivalently the eddy field, plays a central role. We assume that eddy mixing effects a lateral, down-gradient diffusion of potential vorticity; hence, within the closed geostrophic contours, our model approaches a state of uniform potential vorticity. The solutions also extend the steady-state theories, which require weak diffusion, by demonstrating that homogenization occurs for moderately strong diffusion.

The evoiution of potential vorticity and the thermocline are examined, and it is shown that the adjustment time of the model is governed by dissipation, rather than baroclinic wave propagation as in linear theories. If dissipation is weak, spin-up of a nonlinear ocean may take several times that predicted by linear models, which agrees with analyses of eddy-resolving general circulation models. The inclusion of a western boundary current may accelerate this process, although dissipation will still play a central role.     

Impacts of changing climate on the hydrology and hydropower production of the Tagus River basin

The Tagus River basin is an ultimately important water source for hydropower production, urban and agricultural water supply in Spain and Portugal. Growing electricity and water supply demands, over‐regulation of the river and construction of new dams, as well as large inter‐basin and intra‐basin water transfers aggravated by strong natural variability of climate in the catchment, have already imposed significant pressures on the river. The substantial reduction of discharge is observed already now, and projected climatic change is expected to alter the water budget of the catchment further.In this study, we address the effects of projected climate change on the water resources availability in the Tagus River basin and influence of potential changes on hydropower generation of the three important reservoirs in the basin. The catchment‐scale, process‐based eco‐hydrological model soil and water integrated model was set up, calibrated and validated for the entire Tagus River basin, taking into account 15 large reservoirs in the catchment. The future climate projections were selected from those generated within the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. They include five bias‐corrected climatic datasets for the region, obtained from global circulation model runs under two emissions scenario – moderate and extreme ones – and covered the whole century. The results show a strong agreement among model runs in projecting substantial decrease of discharge of the Tagus River discharge and, consequently, a strong decrease in hydropower production under both future climate scenarios. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Regional and global effects of southern ocean constraints in a global model

Global ocean circulation models do not usually take high-latitude processes into account in an adequate form due to a limited model domain or insufficient resolution. Without the processes in key areas contributing to the lower part of the global thermohaline circulation, the characteristics and flow of deep and bottom waters often remain unrealistic in these models. In this study, various sections of the Bremerhaven Regional Ice Ocean Simulation model results are combined with a global inverse model by using temperature, salinity, and velocity constraints for the Hamburg Large Scale Geostrophic ocean general circulation model. The differences between the global model with and without additional constraints from the regional model demonstrate that the Weddell Sea circulation exerts a significant influence on the course of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current with consequences for Southern Ocean water mass characteristics and the spreading of deep and bottom waters in the South Atlantic. The influence of the Ross Sea is found to be less important in terms of global influences. However, regional changes in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean are found to be of Ross Sea origin. The additional constraints change the hydrographic conditions of the global model in the vicinity of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in such a way that transport values, e.g., in Drake Passage no longer need to be prescribed to obtain observed transports. These changes not only improve the path and transport of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current but affect the meso- and large-scale circulation. With a higher (lower) mean Drake Passage transport, the mean Weddell Gyre transport is lower (higher). Furthermore, an increase (decrease) in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current leads to a decrease (increase) of the circum-Australian flow, i.e., a decrease (increase) of the Indonesian Throughflow.     

Aquatic primary production in relation to microalgal responses to changing light: A review

Dynamic aspects of algal photosynthesis are set against the background of physical water motions which change the light experienced by the phytoplankton. These time-dependent photosynthetic responses are reviewed in relation to the proposition that phytoplankton primary production may be incorrectly estimated by the commonly used static incubation of light and dark bottles for periods significantly longer than the response-time of phytoplankton to changing light. This proposition is supported by the clear overlap between the timescales which characterize water motions and the timescales reported for the complex responses of algae to changing light. Empirical studies comparing static and dynamic incubations have been inconclusive, as have models incorporating some representation of the dynamic photosynthetic response to changing light. These results reflect weaknesses in the simple formulations used to describe photosynthesis in relation to irradiance, the simplicity of physical schemes used to generate changes in irradiance with time, and a lack of data (field and laboratory) on dynamic responses of microalgae to changing light. The quantitative significance of many physiological mechanisms is not known in relation to their effect on photosynthesis.     

The equatorial dynamics of a deep homogeneous ocean

Abstract

The flow properties of an homogeneous fluid which is bounded by two concentric spheres and two meridional planes which intersect along a diameter of the spheres are investigated. The spheres rotate about this diameter with slightly different angular velocities. As in the axisymmetric case studied by Proudman (1956) and Stewartson (1966) the viscous terms in the equations of motion are important only in boundary layers on the spheres and on the cylinder C which circumscribes the inner sphere and which has generators parallel to the axis of rotation, provided the Ekman number E is small. In the inviscid region the velocities are independent of the coordinate measuring distance along the axis of rotation and are much weaker, by a factor 0(E ^½), than the velocities in the Ekman layer on the driving surface (outer sphere). (It is assumed that the reference frame is fixed in the slower rotating inner sphere.) If the separation of the spheres is small compared to their radii then the asymmetric circulation inside C is characterized by an intense jet along the western wall. Loss of fluid from this jet sustains the eastward and northward flow in the inviscid interior where motion is driven by the suction of the Ekman layer on the outer sphere. (Geophysical conventions have been adopted.) Outside C an intense current is present on the eastern, not western, wall while motion in the inviscid region is westward, and away from the axis of rotation. Though there is no transport across C in the inviscid region, the meridional transport of the Ekman layer on the outer sphere is continuous across C and increases, through suction, as the equator is approached until it drains into an eastward flowing equatorial current of width 0(E ^1/7). The eastern boundary current outside C and shear layers on C carry this fluid to the intersection of C and the western wall where it feeds the western boundary current inside C.

The relation between this study and the experiments of Baker and Robinson (1970) is discussed.     

Optimisation of a parallel ocean general circulation model

This paper presents the development of a general-purpose parallel ocean circulation model, for use on a wide range of computer platforms, from traditional scalar machines to workstation clusters and massively parallel processors. Parallelism is provided, as a modular option, via high-level message-passing routines, thus hiding the technical intricacies from the user. An initial implementation highlights that the parallel efficiency of the model is adversely affected by a number of factors, for which optimisations are discussed and implemented. The resulting ocean code is portable and, in particular, allows science to be achieved on local workstations that could otherwise only be undertaken on state-of-the-art supercomputers.     

Interactions between mean flow and finite-amplitude mesoscale eddies in a barotropic ocean

Abstract

For the purpose of deriving an analytical parametrization, oceanic mesoscale eddies are represented as a horizontally propagating wave field in a non-uniform environment. The mathematical analysis rests upon the assumption of scale disparity between a short eddy scale and a long mean-flow scale. The novelty resides in the treatment of finite-amplitude eddies, which, moreover, form either a band-like or a cell-like pattern. A barotropic ocean is chosen as a first step to illustrate the mathematical analysis, but dissipation is included. The main result is an analytical derivation of a mesoscale-eddy parametrization: the mean-flow equation contains Reynolds-stress terms which are computed from parameters of the eddy field, which, in turn, are predicted by separate evolution equations. Due to restrictive assumptions (barotropy, orthogonal waves,…), the parametrization established here should be viewed only as a first step toward the design of a more practical parameterization for large-scale modelling.     

Coupled Surface and Groundwater Hydrological Modeling in a Changing Climate

Many current watershed modeling efforts now incorporate surface water and groundwater for managing water resources since the exchanges between groundwater and surface water need a special focus considering the changing climate. The influence of groundwater dynamics on water and energy balance components is investigated in the Snake River Basin (SRB) by coupling the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) and MODFLOW models (VIC‐MF) for the period of 1986 through 2042. A 4.4% increase in base flows and a 10.3% decrease in peak flows are estimated by VIC‐MF compared to the VIC model in SRB. The VIC‐MF model shows significant improvement in the streamflow simulation (Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency [NSE] of 0.84) at King Hill, where the VIC model could not capture the effect of spring discharge in the streamflow simulation (NSE of ?0.30); however, the streamflow estimates show an overall decreasing trend. Two climate scenarios representing median and high radiative‐forcings such as representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 show an average increase in the water table elevations between 2.1 and 2.6 m (6.9 and 8.5 feet) through the year 2042. The spatial patterns of these exchanges show a higher groundwater elevation of 15 m (50 feet) in the downstream area and a lower elevation of up to 3 m (10 feet) in the upstream area. Broadly, this study supports results of previous work demonstrating that integrated assessment of groundwater‐surface water enables stakeholders to balance pumping, recharge and base flow needs and to manage the watersheds that are subjected to human pressures more sustainably.     

The equatorial dynamics of a shallow,homogeneous ocean

Abstract

It is shown that the linear equatorial dynamics of a shallow ocean is characterized by two boundary layers of width γ^? L and γL (γ is the Ekman number of the flow, assumed small, and L is a horizontal dimension of the basin). In the γ^? layer stress in the bottom Ekman layer is comparable to that in the surface Ekman layer. In the γ layer vertical friction is important throughout the depth of the ocean. Should the Rossby number ? be so large as to invalidate a linear theory (? > γ^5/3), then inertial effects become important at a distance ?^2/5 L from the equator. The role played in the circulation of the basin by the non-linear equatorial current first studied by Charney (1960) is shown to be similar to that of the γ layer of the linear theory. Though lateral friction is unimportant in a linear model of the flow, shear layers at the equator are found to be a necessary feature of non-linear flow.     

Winter methane dynamics beneath ice and in snow in a temperate poor fen

The influence of winter on methane (CH₄) stored in pore water and emitted through snow was investigated in a temperate poor fen in New Hampshire over two winters. Methane accumulated beneath ice layers (1 cm) deposited by freezing rain, resulting in snow-pore air mixing ratios as high as 140 ppmv during the first winter and 600 ppmv during the second. An early winter snow crust of 300 kg m^?3 caused no discontinuity in a linear mixing ratio profile and therefore was not observed to retard snowpack emissions. Methane concentration-depth profiles in pore water steepened and concentrations increased by as much as 400 μM at the 10 and 20 cm depths as the ice cover formed. This suggests that the peat-ice cover plays an important part in CH₄ build-up in pore water by limiting the transport of gases between the peat and the atmosphere. Pore water concentrations gradually declined through late winter. The seasonality of dissolved CH₄ in pore water over two winters and one summer showed an average annual amplitude of 1.3 gCH₄m^?2 (25–75cm depth range), with a winter maximum of 4.7gCH₄m^?2. Emissions during the winter with average snowfall accounted for a larger percentage (9.2% in 1993–1994) of total annual emission than the winter with below-average snowfall and warmer air temperature (2% in 1994–1995). Emissions averaged 56 and 26mg m^?2 day^?1 during the first and second winter (December, January and February), respectively.     

Oxidation and emission of methane in a monomictic lake (Rotsee, Switzerland)

The build-up of methane in the hypolimnion of the eutrophic Lake Rotsee (Lucerne, Switzerland) was monitored over a full year. Sources and sinks of methane in the water column were characterized by measuring concentrations and carbon isotopic composition. In fall, high methane concentrations (up to 1 mM) were measured in the anoxic water layer. In the oxic layer, methane concentrations were much lower and the isotopic composition shifted towards heavy carbon isotopes. Methane oxidation rates peaked at the interface between oxic and anoxic water layers at around 8–10 m depth. The electron balance between the oxidants oxygen, sulphate, and nitrate, and the reductants methane, sulphide and ammonium, matched very well in the chemocline during the stratified season. The profile of carbon isotopic composition of methane showed strong indications for methane oxidation at the chemocline (including the oxycline). Aerobic methane oxidizing bacteria were detected at the interface using fluorescence in situ hybridization. Sequencing the responsible organisms from DGGE bands revealed that aerobic methanotrophs type I closely related to Methylomonas were present. Sulphate consumption occurred at the sediment surface and, only towards the end of the stagnation period, matched with a zone of methane consumption. In any case, the flux of sulphate below the chemocline was not sufficient to oxidize all the methane and other oxidants like nitrate, iron or manganese are necessary for the observed methane oxidation. Although most of the methane was oxidized either aerobically or anaerobically, Lake Rotsee was still a source of methane to the atmosphere with emission rates between 0.2 mg CH₄ m^?2 day^?1 in February and 7 mg CH₄ m^?2 day^?1 in November.     

A marine secondary producer respires and feeds more in a high CO2 ocean

Climate change mediates marine chemical and physical environments and therefore influences marine organisms. While increasing atmospheric CO(2) level and associated ocean acidification has been predicted to stimulate marine primary productivity and may affect community structure, the processes that impact food chain and biological CO(2) pump are less documented. We hypothesized that copepods, as the secondary marine producer, may respond to future changes in seawater carbonate chemistry associated with ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric CO(2) concentration. Here, we show that the copepod, Centropages tenuiremis, was able to perceive the chemical changes in seawater induced under elevated CO(2) concentration (>1700 μatm, pH<7.60) with avoidance strategy. The copepod's respiration increased at the elevated CO(2) (1000 μatm), associated acidity (pH 7.83) and its feeding rates also increased correspondingly, except for the initial acclimating period, when it fed less. Our results imply that marine secondary producers increase their respiration and feeding rate in response to ocean acidification to balance the energy cost against increased acidity and CO(2) concentration.     

The closing of a seaway: ocean water masses and global climate change

The Late Neogene witnessed various major paleoceanographic changes that culminated in intense Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (NHG). The cause and effects of these changes are still debated. We use a multiproxy approach to determine the relative timing of the closure of the Panama gateway, changes in Atlantic circulation, global cooling and ice sheet growth. Benthic foraminiferal Mg/Ca records from a Pacific and an Atlantic Site have been produced and are interpreted in terms of bottom water temperatures. These Mg-temperature records are combined with published benthic δ¹³C, δ¹⁸O and erosion records to reconstruct the flow of proto-North Atlantic Deep Water (proto-NADW) over the past 12 Ma. The results suggest that between 12.5 and 10.5 Ma, and again between about 8.5 and 6 Ma, a nutrient-depleted water mass that was colder (by 1–2°C) and fresher than the intervening deep water mass filled the Atlantic basin. This proto-NADW became warmer (by 1°C) and saltier between 6 and 5 Ma, coincident with the restriction of surface water flow through the Central American Seaway. The Mg-temperature records define a subsequent global cooling trend of 3.5°C between 5 Ma and today. Early NHG in the late Miocene was perhaps related to the formation of the relatively cold, fresh proto-NADW. The formation of the warmer and saltier proto-NADW in the early Pliocene may have initially limited Northern Hemisphere ice growth. However, the increased moisture released at high northern latitudes associated with formation of ‘warm’ proto-NADW, coupled with the global temperature decrease of deep (and hence polar surface) waters, likely helped initiate the intense NHG of the Plio–Pleistocene.