A discussion on Corioli force effect and aflershock activity tendency of the M=8.1 Kunlun Mountain Pass earthquake on Nov.14, 2001

Following the theory and definition of the Corioli force in physics, the Corioli force at the site of the M=8.1 Kunlun Mountain Pass earthquake on November 14, 2001, is examined in this paper on the basis of a statistical research on relationship between the Corioli force effect and the maximum attershock magnitude of 20 earth-quakes with M≥7.5 in Chinese mainland, and then the variation tendency of attershock activity of the M=8.1 earthquake is discussed. The result shows: a) Analyzing the Corioli force effect is an effective method to predict maximum attershock magnitude of large earthquakes in Chinese mainland. For the sinistral slip fault and the reverse fault with its hanging wall moving toward the right side oftbe cross-focus meridian plane, their Corioli force pulls the two fault walls apart, decreasing frictional resistance on fault plane during the fault movement and releasing elastic energy of the mainshock fully, so the maximum magnitude of aftershocks would be low. For the dextral slip fault, its Corioli force presses the two walls against each other and increases the frictional resistance on fault plane, prohibiting energy release of the mainshock, so the maximum magnitude of attershocks would be high.b) The fault of the M--8. l Kunlun Mountain earthquake on Nov. 14, 2001 is essentially a sinistral strike-slip fault,and the Corioli force pulled the two fault walls apart. Magnitude of the induced stress is about 0.06 MPa. Alter a comparison analysis, we suggest that the attershock activity level will not be high in the late period of this earth-quake sequence, and the maximum magnitude of the whole aftershocks sequence is estimated to be about 6.0.     

地震时空影响域、复发间隔和有效孕震时间

研究表明,地城的时空影响域（影响范围）在t（时间）－r（距离）坐标上具有双曲线型的边界曲线,t=0时的最大影响半径为r0,r=0时的最大影响时间（即原地复发间隔)为t0。根据我国华北,西北,青藏和西南地区后继地震相对于无发地震的时,距分布状况,经优化拟合和统计分析,确定了地震时空影响域的优化边界曲线及90％置信度边界曲线。以三维（时间－距离－震级）的“地震时空影响域”概念取代一维（时间）或二维（时间－震级）的“复发间隔”概念,为认识地震活动涨落起伏的实质,估计潜在震源的有效震孕震时间和改进地城的中长期预测提供了新的思路。     

中国东部中强地震潜在震源区地震复发概率分布

本文对中国大陆东部102个中强潜在震源区内1500a以来5—6级地震的复发间隔进行了统计分析,得到了中强地震复发间隔不仅受潜源内断层活动性影响,还与发震构造是否交汇及邻区构造活动等因素有一定关系。中强地震复发间隔大致满足指数分布,通过给出的概率模型可以计算出研究区内各潜在震源区未来一定时间内的发震概率,为地震危险性分析提供一些基础资料。     

Characteristics of Large Earthquake Recurrence and Determination of Average Recurrence Interval Value

Paleoearthquakes in the Yanqing-Huailai basin and on the Haiyuan fault are studied in detail.The result indicates that the recurrence behavior of large earthquakes is of a wide variety.Characteristic earthquakes show the behavior characteristics of the activity of most faults,butthey are of different grades,the recurrence interval of large earthquakes is of staged nature,and the interaction between faults has effects on the recurrence sequence of large earthquakes.Thus,when the recurrence behavior of large earthquakes is staged in time or when thegradation of characteristic earthquakes has led to a sharp difference in recurrence intervalbetween paleoearthquakes of different intensities,for estimating the large earthquake risk bythe deterministic method and time-dependent probabilistic method,it is necessary to calculatethe recurrence interval value separately for each specific stage or grade in order that theaverage recurrence interval values of different stages can be determined.     

汶川M_S8.0级地震发震构造大震复发间隔估算

汶川Ms8．0级地震发生在青藏高原东缘著名的龙门山断裂带上,造成了中央断裂和前山断裂共约330kin的地震地表破裂带。初步研究表明,龙门山断裂带上大震复发可能属特征地震模式。结合龙门山断裂带的地震地质情况和汶川地震地表破裂带的基本参数综合分析,本文从地质学、地震学和GPS数据分析三个方面评估了龙门山断裂带的大震复发周期。结果表明,上述三种方法获得的龙门山断裂带Ms8．0级地震的复发间隔分别为：3185a、170（02264a和4310a,平均为3000a左右：Ms7．5级地震的平均复发间隔为1000a左右;Ms7．0级地震的平均复发间隔为500a左右。这些结果与其他学者的研究结果相比,相差不多,基本反映了龙门山断裂带的地震能量水平和累积速度。     

2010年玉树地震的构造环境、历史地震活动及其复发周期估计

2010年4月14日青海省玉树发生了7.1级地震,造成了严重的人员伤亡和重大的经济损失。发生该地震的甘孜-玉树断裂是川滇菱形块体的边界断裂,晚第四纪左旋走滑运动强烈。震中所处的甘孜-玉树断裂中段,震前历史地震活动与东南段相比较弱。本文利用玉树地震的基本参数资料和地震破裂反演结果,综合历史地震法和地震矩率法估算出了玉树地震的复发周期约为200年。     

龙陵-瑞丽断裂北段晚第四纪活动性特征及强震复发间隔1

野外地质地貌调查表明,龙陵-瑞丽断裂（南支）北段是以左旋走滑为主兼具一定正断分量的区域性活动断裂。断裂晚更新世以来的平均水平滑动速率为2.2mm/a,平均垂直滑动速率为0. 6mm/a;全新世以来的平均水平滑动速率为1.8—3.0mm/a,平均垂直滑动速率为0.5mm/a。断裂在晚更新世以来的滑动速率在不同的时间尺度上变化不大,反映出该断裂晚更新世以来的活动强度比较稳定。利用Poisson模型、Lognormal模型、BPT模型三种概率模型计算获得未来50a强震发震概率分别是：6.32%、0.08%、0.05%;三种模型分别取权重0.28、0.36、0.36,获得龙陵-瑞丽断裂北段未来50a特征地震发震概率为1.82%。     

Study on Integrated Recurrence Behaviors of Strong Earthquakes Along Entire Active Fault Zones in the Sichuan-Yunnan Region, China

Based on historical earthquake data, we use statistical methods to study integrated recurrence behaviors of strong earthquakes along 7 selected active fault zones in the Sichuan-Yunnan region. The results show that recurrences of strong earthquakes in the 7 fault zones display near-random, random and clustering behaviors. The recurrence processes are never quasiperiodic, and are neither strength-time nor time-strength dependent. The more independent segments for strong earthquake rupturing a fault zone has, the more complicated the corresponding recurrence process is. And relatively active periods and quiescent periods for earthquake activity occur alternatively. Within the active periods, the distribution of recurrence time intervals between earthquakes has relatively large discretion, and can be modelled well by a Weibull distribution. The time distribution of the quiescent periods has relatively small discretion, and can be approximately described by some distributions as the normal. Both the durations of the active periods and the numbers of strong earthquakes within the active periods vary obviously cycle by cycle, leading to the relatively active periods having never repeated quasi-periodically. Therefore, the probabilistic assessment for middle- and longterm seismic hazard for entireties of active fault zones based on data of historical strong earthquakes on the fault zones still faces difficulty.     

龙陵-瑞丽断裂北段晚第四纪活动性特征及强震复发间隔

野外地质地貌调查表明,龙陵-瑞丽断裂(南支)北段是以左旋走滑为主兼具一定正断分量的区域性活动断裂.断裂晚更新世以来的平均水平滑动速率为2.2mm/a,平均垂直滑动速率为0.6mm/a;全新世以来的平均水平滑动速率为1.8-3.0mm/a,平均垂直滑动速率为0.5mm/a.断裂在晚更新世以来的滑动速率在不同的时间尺度上变化不大,反映出该断裂晚更新世以来的活动强度比较稳定.利用Poisson模型、Lognormal模型、BPT模型三种概率模型计算获得未来50a强震发震概率分别是:6.32％、0.08％、0.05％;三种模型分别取权重0.28、0.36、0.36,获得龙陵-瑞丽断裂北段未来50a特征地震发震概率为1.82％.     

华北地区中强地震时间间隔特征与目前大形势分析

针对目前华北地区5、6级地震持续平静的复杂形势,分析了华北地区1484年以来M≥5、M≥6级地震的时间间隔特征,结果表明:①1731～1814年地震平静期的5、6级地震的平均时间间隔明显长于1484～1730年及1815年以来2个地震活动期的平均时间间隔,说明华北地区地震起伏交替轮回的韵律性是客观的;②华北地区2个地震活动期中相邻活动幕的幕间M≥5地震(含平静幕里发生的地震)平均时间间隔(86月)与1731～1814年平静期内单次M≥5级地震平均时间间隔(90月)一致,90月可做为华北地区5级地震异常平静的标志性时间;③类比500多年华北地区5、6级地震的时间间隔特征认为,当前华北地区正处于2000年以来的平静幕后期,该平静幕已持续169月,已经随时有可能发生5、6级地震,开始进入新一轮的地震活动幕.     

Numerical Simulation of the Effect of a DC Electric Field on Seismic Wave Propagation with the Pseudospectral Time Domain Method

We have modeled the effect of a direct current (DC) electric field on the propagation of seismic waves by the pseudospectral time domain (PSTD) method, based on a set of governing equations for the poroelastic media. This study belongs to the more general term of the seismoelectric coupling effect. The set of physical equations consists of the poroelastodynamic equations for the seismic waves and the Maxwell's equations for the electromagnetic waves; the magnitude of the seismoelectric coupling effect is characterized by the charge density, the electric conductivity, the Onsager coefficient, a function of the dielectric permittivity, the fluid viscosity, and the zeta potential. The poroelastodynamic vibration of a solid matrix generates an electric oscillation with the form of streaming current via the fluctuation of pore pressure. Meanwhile, fluctuating pore pressure also causes oscillatory variation of the electric resistivity of the solid matrix. The simulated poroelastic wave propagation and electric field variation with an existing background DC electric field are compared with the results of a physical experiment carried out in an oilfield. The results show that the DC electric field can significantly affect the propagating elastic energy through the seismoelectric coupling in a wide range of the seismic frequency band.