温室气体排放评价指标及其定量分析

温室气体排放的科学定量评价是建立国际温室气体减排框架、确定各国合理的减排责任、部署国际减排行动的基础。通过系统阐述目前国际上通行的温室气体排放的主要评价指标(国别排放指标、人均排放指标、GDP 排放指标和国际贸易排放指标等), 并通过定量评价剖析这些评价指标的优缺点及其局限性。讨论了发展科学、公平和易于广泛接受的新评价指 标的可能性。基于可持续发展的公平性原则, 提出了“工业化累积人均排放量” 的新指标, 以客观定量评价世界各国工业化以来温室气体历史累积排放量的当代人均量。新指标的结果显示, 英美等老牌工业化国家的工业化累积人均排放量远高于全球平均水平和发展中国家的 水平。还提出并讨论了人均单位GDP 排放量、消费排放量、生存排放量等潜在的评价指标。     

水库温室气体排放及其影响因素研究进展

二氧化碳、甲烷和氧化亚氮是3种重要的温室气体。水库是这些温室气体的重要排放源,排放途径多样,而且排放受诸多因素影响,其温室气体的排放量在时间和空间上存在差异。水库消落区是连接水陆生态系统能流、物流的枢纽,是温室气体产生的重要场所。通过分析国内外水库温室气体排放相关领域的研究成果,阐述了水库消落区、水库沉积物中温室气体的产生和排放特点;总结分析了水库温室气体的4个主要排放途径:水面自由扩散、气泡排放、水轮机和溢洪道、大坝下游河流排放;从季节变化、水面风速、水体pH、水温、水体含氧量、水位变化、水体中氮元素和磷元素浓度、库龄等角度,深入探讨了水库温室气体排放的影响因素;提出了未来在水库温室气体研究中需要加强的几方面内容。     

福建省温室气体排放影响因素分析

针对当前温室气体排放影响因素研究中忽视工农业生产排放源的现状,在对福建省2001―2010年各类温室气体排放量进行核算,并统一转换成CO2当量的基础上,通过引入能表达工农业生产过程自身温室气体排放的新指标,建立改进后的对数Divisia均值分解模型（LMDI）对福建省温室气体排放的影响因素进行分解分析。研究发现：2001―2010年福建省温室气体排放量不断上升,但环比增长率整体波动下降;产业结构、经济规模、人口规模、能源结构、人均收入、城市化水平、城市居民工业强度等因素的累积效应对温室气体排放增加有正向促进作用,其中城市居民工业强度的贡献率达到了13.66%;能源强度、农业生产强度的累积效应对温室气体排放有负向抑制作用,其中农业生产强度累积效应占负向效应总和的50%以上。研究结果显示：工农业生产过程对福建省温室气体排放有显著的驱动作用,不应忽视。     

中国能源领域温室气体排放现状及减排对策研究

自工业革命以来,随着化石燃料的广泛应用,能源领域的温室气体排放逐渐成为其主要的人为排放源,能源、环境和经济发展之间的矛盾也日益成为各国政府共同关注的焦点。如何有效地进行能源活动中温室气体的减排已经成为涉及环境、经济、政治、外交等多方面的全球性科学问题。文章对中国能源开发利用现状和主要温室气体二氧化碳(CO₂)、甲烷(CH₄)、氧化亚氮(N₂O)能源排放源进行了简要分析,并对适合中国国情的温室气体减排与能源可持续开发与利用"双赢",实现"发展型减排"的有效途径进行了初步的探讨。     

洪水冲目可能有助于减少温地温室气体排放

甲烷是天然气和温室气体的主要成分,美国环境保护署估测,全球范围甲烷排放量的60％是人类活动的结果．湿地是排放甲烷的自然资源之一。细菌在分解腐烂有机物的过程中,将湿地中温室气体排放到大气中。     

对WRI估计的温室气体排放量的重新评价

某些痕量气体如ＣＯ２、ＣＨ４、Ｎ２Ｏ和ＣＦＣｓ的大量排放，使得大气中这些温室气体（ＧｒｅｅｎｈｏｕｓｅＧａｓｅｓ）的浓度增加，很可能导致全球变暖。因而，最根本的措施是控制温控气体的排放以及现在国际上讨论的如何达到最适宜的温度气体排放限制的策略。     

人类活动影响下淡水沼泽湿地温室气体排放变化

利用静态箱/气相色谱法,研究了三江平原淡水沼泽湿地及垦殖农业利用下CO₂、CH₄、N₂O排放变化。不同类型湿地生长季土壤呼吸速率以季节性积水的小叶章草甸最大,湿地垦殖后土壤呼吸速率明显增大。不同类型沼泽湿地CH₄排放在时空两个方面都有明显的变化,与土壤水分条件、植物群落类型和生长状况有密切关系。沼泽湿地及垦殖后农田土壤在植物生长季都为N₂O的源,常年积水沼泽湿地在植物生长季N₂O排放通量值较小,而土壤水分常年处于非饱和的草甸灌丛土壤N₂O排放相对较高,垦殖后农田土壤N₂O排放通量最大,沼泽湿地土壤N₂O排放通量与土壤温度呈正相关关系,而垦殖后农田土壤不显著。     

洪水冲击可能有助于减少湿地温室气体排放

<正>甲烷是天然气和温室气体的主要成分,美国环境保护署估测,全球范围甲烷排放量的60%是人类活动的结果,湿地是排放甲烷的自然资源之一。细菌在分解腐烂有机物的过程中,将湿地中温室气体排放到大气中。根据美国俄亥俄州立大学的最新研究,洪水和暴雨冲击河、海附近的沼泽和湿地可减少其温室气体一半的排放量。该研究认为,在一定时间内,与流入稳定水量的湿地相比,     

湿地温室气体排放影响因素研究进展

对湿地温室气体(CO2、CH4、N2O)排放的影响因素进行了论述,研究发现影响湿地温室气体排放的主要因素为植被、水文、土壤状况、气候及人为干扰5个方面。通过分析已有研究的进展和存在的问题,指出湿地温室气体排放的影响机理、各影响因素之间的关系及温室气体减量化研究是该领域未来的重点研究方向,并对湿地温室气体管理提出了建议。     

盐度对河口潮汐湿地温室气体产生和排放的影响研究进展

盐度是影响河口潮汐湿地温室气体动态的一个重要的环境因子。本文论述了盐度对河口潮汐湿地温室气体的产生和排放的影响及机制。盐水入侵通过带来丰富的SO42-引起的硫酸盐效应、离子强度增加引起的离子效应影响CH4和CO2的产生。盐水入侵通过影响湿地的硝化作用、反硝化作用及硝化细菌反硝化作用进而影响N2O产生量,影响方式主要包括:(1)通过物理化学机制加强沉积物中铵的释放;(2)通过生理机制增加沉积物氮素释放量,直接影响硝化细菌、反硝化细菌活性,进而影响硝化作用和反硝化作用;(3)通过提高硝酸盐异化还原为铵的速率影响反硝化速率。最后提出了今后应加强研究的方向。     

A quantitative comparison and analysis on the assessment indicators of greenhouse gases emission

Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG) emission and related global warming issues have been the focus of international communities for some time. The international communities have reached a consensus to reduce anthropogenic GHG emissions and restrain global warming. The quantitative assessment of anthropogenic GHG emissions is the scientific basis to find out the status of global GHG emission, identify the commitments of each country, and arrange the international efforts of GHG emission reduction. Currently the main assessment indicators for GHG emission include national indicator, per capita indicator, per GDP indicator, and international trade indicator etc. The introduction to the above indicators is put forward and their merits and demerits are analyzed. Based on the GHG emission data from the World Resource Institute (WRI), the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), and the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), the results of each indictor are calculated for the world, for the eight G8 industrialized countries (USA, UK, Canada, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Russia), and the five major developing countries including China, Brazil, India, South Africa and Mexico. The paper points out that all these indicators have some limitations. The Indicator of Industrialized Accumulative Emission per Capita (IAEC) is put forward as the equitable indicator to evaluate the industrialized historical accumulative emission per capita of every country. IAEC indicator can reflect the economic achievement of GHG emission enjoyed by the current generations in every country and their commitments. The analysis of IAEC indicates that the historical accumulative emission per capita in industrialized countries such as UK and USA were typically higher than those of the world average and the developing countries. Emission indicator per capita per GDP, consumptive emission indicator and survival emission indicator are also put forward and discussed in the paper.     

碳排放强度及其变化——基于截面数据定量分析的初步推断

经济发展和环境破坏的双重挑战使碳排放成为社会关注的焦点.以世界112个独立经济体截面数据为依据,利用统计分析和计量经济学方法,建立人均碳排放、单位GDP碳排放与人均收入、城市化率、工业化率和服务业比例等影响因素之间关系的优选模型,概括总结出经济社会发展与碳排放强度关系的四阶段、五类型模式.随着人均收入水平的提高,碳排放...     

A quantitative assessment of the distribution and extent of urban clusters in China

Urban clusters are the expected products of high levels of industry and urbanization in a country, as well as being the basic units of participation in global competition. With respect to China, urban clusters are regarded as the dominant formation for boosting the Chinese urbanization process. However, to date, there is no coincident, efficient, and credible methodological system and set of techniques to identify Chinese urban clusters. This research investigates the potential of a computerized identification method supported by geographic information techniques to provide a better understanding of the distribution of Chinese urban clusters. The identification method is executed based on a geographic information database, a digital elevation model, and socio-economic data with the aid of ArcInfo Macro Language programming. In the method, preliminary boundaries are identified according to transportation accessibility, and final identifications are achieved from limiting city numbers, population, and GDP in a region with the aid of the rasterized socio-economic dataset. The results show that the method identifies nine Chinese urban clusters, i.e., Pearl River Delta, Lower Yangtze River Valley, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, Northeast China Plain, Middle Yangtze River Valley, Central China Plains, Western Taiwan Strait, Guanzhong and Chengdu-Chongqing urban clusters. This research represents the first study involving the computerized identification of Chinese urban clusters. Moreover, compared to other related studies, the study's approach, which combines transportation accessibility and socio-economic characteristics, is shown to be a distinct, effective and reliable way of identifying urban clusters.     

中国城市群分布及范围的定量评价(英文)

Urban clusters are the expected products of high levels of industry and urbanization in a country, as well as being the basic units of participation in global competition. With respect to China, urban clusters are regarded as the dominant formation for boosting the Chinese urbanization process. However, to date, there is no coincident, efficient, and credible methodological system and set of techniques to identify Chinese urban clusters. This research investigates the potential of a computerized identification method supported by geographic information techniques to provide a better understanding of the distribution of Chinese urban clusters. The identification method is executed based on a geographic information database, a digital elevation model, and socio-economic data with the aid of ArcInfo Macro Language programming. In the method, preliminary boundaries are identified accord-ing to transportation accessibility, and final identifications are achieved from limiting city numbers, population, and GDP in a region with the aid of the rasterized socio-economic dataset. The results show that the method identifies nine Chinese urban clusters, i.e., Pearl River Delta, Lower Yangtze River Valley, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, Northeast China Plain, Middle Yangtze River Valley, Central China Plains, Western Taiwan Strait, Guanzhong and Chengdu-Chongqing urban clusters. This research represents the first study involving the computerized identification of Chinese urban clusters. Moreover, compared to other related studies, the study’s approach, which combines transportation accessibility and socio-economic characteristics, is shown to be a distinct, effective and reliable way of identifying urban clusters.     

夷平面的三维显示与定量分析方法初探

夷平面是当代地貌学研究的一个重要课题之一,对于重建一个地区的地貌演化的历史具有重要的意义,中利用遥感与地理信息系统建立了位兰州以南、青藏高原东北部边缘的美武高 程工与陆地卫星影像结合起来集成分析,论述了美武高原三维地貌影像图的信息特点,提取了若干区段的地形剖面,进而在分析了高原夷平面地貌参数体系的基础上运用遥感图像监督分类技术自动提出高原夷平面的具体分布区域,揭示了此项对于夷平面分析的巨大潜力。     

基于SSA和MGF的海面变化长期预测及对比

海面变化预测受到建模思路、方法选择、数据长度及数据质量等因素的影响,导致了海面变化预测的不确定性。本文以国内6个验潮站自20世纪50年代以来的月平均潮位序列为基础,采用奇异谱分析(SSA)与均值生成函数(MGF)模型相结合的方案,以各站位最初20余年数据为基础建立预测模型,以后续年份的实测数据进行了多方案对比验证及检验。预测试验显示MGF模型具有较高的预测精度,并表现出较好的长期预测的稳定性特点。以SSA去噪序列为基础,应用MGF模型预测了各站位至2050年的月尺度海面值,年均值计算结果表明至2050年海面波动上升的幅度不超过20cm,海面变化速率同样表现出阶段性和波动性。与前人相关研究成果对比表明,本文所采用的SSA与MGF相结合的预测结果具有可比性,在方法原理和验证结果上看具有较好的长期预测潜力。     

The cooperative and conflictual interactions between the United States,Russia, and China: A quantitative analysis of event data

The United States, Russia and China are militarily and economically among the most powerful countries in the post-Cold War period, and the interactions between the three powers heavily influence the international system. However, different conclusions about this question are generally made by researchers through qualitative analysis, and it is necessary to objectively and quantitatively investigate their interactions. Monthly-aggregated event data from the Global Data on Events, Location and Tone(GDELT) to measure cooperative and conflictual interactions between the three powers, and the complementary cumulative distribution function(CCDF) and the vector autoregression(VAR) method are utilized to investigate their interactions in two periods: January, 1991 to September, 2001, and October, 2001 to December, 2016. The results of frequencies and strengths analysis showed that: the frequencies and strengths of USA-China interactions slightly exceeded those of USA-Russia interactions and became the dominant interactions in the second period. Although that cooperation prevailed in the three dyads in two periods, the conflictual interactions between the USA and Russia tended to be more intense in the second period, mainly related to the strategic contradiction between the USA and Russia, especially in Georgia, Ukraine and Syria. The results of CCDF indicated that similar probabilities in the cooperative behaviors between the three dyads, but the differences in the probabilities of conflictual behaviors in the USA-Russia dyad showed complicated characteristic, and those between Russia and China indicated that Russia had been consistently giving China a hard time in both periods when dealing with conflict. The USA was always an essential factor in affecting the interactions between Russia and China in both periods, but China's behavior only played a limited role in influencing the interactions between the USA-Russia dyad. Our study provides quantitative insight into the direct cooperative and conflictual interactions between the three dyads since the end of the Cold War and helps to understand their interactions better.     

区域规划环境评价的空间尺度效应——对上海高桥镇和浦东新区的案例研究

区域规划环境评价的空间特性决定其对空间尺度的敏感性。本文从理论层面对区域规划环评中空间尺度与基础数据的关系、空间尺度与显著环境因子识别以及评价指标体系的关系、空间尺度与大气环境影响预测的关系进行了初步探讨。并以"上海高桥镇区域规划环境影响评价"(2005年)和"上海浦东新区国民经济与社会发展规划战略环境评价"(2010年)为例,通过对比方法,进一步说明空间尺度与显著环境因子识别和评价指标体系以及与环境影响预测的关系。结果表明:基础数据收集、汇总是区域规划环评中极为重要的环节,由于不同类型的基础数据表现出不同的空间特征,需要根据评价区域的实际和评价要求,合理选择数据所涵盖的空间范围和空间分辨率。区域规划环境评价应根据本身的层次、涉及范围,筛选出合理的显著环境因子,并建立相应的评价指标体系。大尺度上环境空气质量预测评价的结果侧重于总体描述、解释污染物散布的宏观空间格局和趋势,而在小尺度上则更有利于揭示局地精细化的污染扩散规律。     

呼伦贝尔沙地沙丘砂来源的定量分析— 逐步判别分析(SDA)在粒度分析方面的应用

以呼伦贝尔沙地砂物质的粒度分析资料为基础,利用两组间的逐步判别分析(SDA) 来筛选决定不同沉积物间差异的主导因子,根据主导因子的个数、Mahalanobis距离D2、通过统计学检验的信度琢等3个因素,来定量地确定两个总体间的相似性大小。分析结果表明:呼伦贝尔沙地的风成沙丘砂主要来源于海拉尔组砂(Q3),但河流冲积砂和古土壤也有不可忽视的作用;在嵯岗镇附近及其以西的海拉尔河下游宽阔河谷中,自然条件下河流冲积砂也可以成为风成沙丘砂的主要沙源。