Establishment and application of urbanization strategic environmental assessment integration technology system

Urbanization strategic environmental assessment （SEA） is an effective instrument to enhance the harmonious development of urban complex system, integrating of environment and development in decision-making. Urbanization strategic environmental assessment integration technology system （SEA-ITS） is composed of ＂3S＂ （RS, GIS and GPS）, environmental expert system and environmental model system, coupling with appropriate SEA working process closely. In this paper, the structure and components of SEA-ITS are analyzed based on Chinese characteristics, meanwhile methods to fulfill the following system functions are discussed： urbanization SEA inquiring, analysis, discrimination, assessment, prediction, decision-making and output. Moreover, methods and technologies employed in different urbanization SEA hierarchies are summarized. As a case study, urbanization SEA-ITS is applied in Changchun City to solving complex real problems. Methods such as system dynamics and grey cluster are adopted to achieve the environmental impact assessment on the eco-industrial system planning. It is revealed that the system designed is capable of reflecting the dynamic behavior of eco-industrial system under different scenarios, meanwhile accomplishing strategy optimization and supplying scientific reference. The 4th strategy, namely concerning on economy increase and its interaction with science, technology and environment progress, would have the best efficiency. Further, more attention should be paid to the secondary development of integration techniques and function modification system of urbanization SEA-ITS.     

A theoretical analysis of interactive coercing effects between urbanization and eco-environment

Objectively, a complex interactive coercing relationship exists between urbanization and eco-environment, and the research of this relationship is primarily divided into three schools, i.e., interactive coercion theory, interactive promotion theory and coupling symbiosis theory. Harmonizing the relationship between urbanization and eco-environment is not only an important proposition for the national development plan but also the only way to promote healthy urbanization. Based on an analysis of urbanization process and its relationship with the eco-environment, this article analyzes interactive coercing effects between urbanization and eco-environment from three perspectives of population urbanization, economic urbanization and spatial urbanization, respectively, and analyzes risk effects of the interactive coercion. Further, it shows six basic laws followed by interactive coercion between urbanization and eco-environment, namely, coupling fission law, dynamic hierarchy law, stochastic fluctuation law, non-linear synergetic law, threshold value law and forewarning law, and divides the interactive coercing process into five stages, namely, low-level coordinate, antagonistic, break-in, ameliorative and high-grade coordinate. Based on the geometric derivation, the interactive coercing relationship between urbanization and eco-environment is judged to be non-linear and it can be explained by a double-exponential function formed by the combination of power and exponential functions. Then, the evolutionary types of the interactive coercing relationship are divided into nine ones: rudimentary coordinating, ecology-dominated, synchronal coordinating, urbanization lagging, stepwise break-in, exorbitant urbanization, fragile ecology, rudimentary break-in and unsustainable types. Finally, based on an interactive coercion model, the degree of interactive coercion can be examined, and then, an evolutionary cycle can be divided into four phases, namely rudimentary symbiosis, harmonious development, utmost increasing and spiral type rising. The study results offer a scientific decision-making of healthy urbanization for achieving the goal of eco-environment protection and promoting urbanization.     

Optimization Transmission Theory and Technical Pathways that Describe Multiscale Urban Agglomeration Spaces

Urban agglomerations are spatial entities that promote the development of ‘new urbanization' processes within China. In this context, the concept of ‘multiscale urban agglomeration spaces' encompasses three linked levels: macroscale urban agglomerations, mesoscale cities, and microscale urban centers. Applying a series of multidisciplinary integrated research methods drawn from geography, urban planning, and architecture, this paper reveals two intensive utilization laws that can be generalized to apply to multiscale urban agglomeration spaces, top-to-bottom ‘positive transmission' linkage and inside-to-outside ‘negative transmission' movement. This paper also proposes optimization transmission theory and policy decision technical pathways that can be applied to these three urban agglomeration spatial scales. Specific technical pathways of transmission include intensive expansion and simulated decision-making in macroscale urban agglomerations, ecology, production, and living space intensive layout and dynamic decision-making in mesoscale cities, and four cores(i.e., ‘single, ring, axis, and pole core') progressive linkage and intensive optimization decision-making in microscale urban centers. The theory and technical pathways proposed in this paper solve the technical problem of optimization and provide intensive methods that can be applied not only at the individual level but also at multiple scales in urban agglomeration spaces. This study also advances a series of comprehensive technical solutions that can be applied to both compact and smart growth cities as well as to urban agglomerations. Solid theoretical support is provided for the optimization of Chinese land development, urbanization, agricultural development, and ecological security.     

基于生态空间胁迫的大都市区增长情景模拟

大都市区增长是当前中国城镇化发展的一种主要模式,如何确定其最佳空间增长形态是新型城镇化关注的重要内容之一。本研究立足于未来“生态城市”建设理念,从自然资源生态敏感性和城市发展适宜性角度构建双重约束条件,利用元胞自动机模型构建了生态空间胁迫下的城市增长过程模拟框架,探讨了边缘性增长、生态性增长与协调性增长3种发展模式,并从建设适宜性、生态安全性与斑块紧凑性等角度构建评价指标对模拟方案进行定量化对比。最后,以长江中游城市群的南昌大都市区进行实例应用,结果表明,协调性空间增长模式能最大程度降低城市建设对生态安全空间的侵蚀,大都市区在制定城市增长边界等空间政策时宜参考此种发展模式,基于生态空间胁迫分析的城市增长过程建模是一种有用的规划决策情景分析工具。     

基于夜间灯光数据估算安徽省县级尺度城镇化水平

城镇化是地区经济发展和社会进步的重要标志,研究城镇化水平对城镇科学发展和政府高效决策具有重要意义。夜间灯光数据包含了人类活动和经济社会发展等信息,弥补了指标法的不确定性和滞后性等不足,可以更加直观地反映城镇化水平,为城镇化研究提供了新的思路。现有的研究,已经有用夜间灯光数据分析宏观尺度的城镇化水平,但由于DMSP-OLS数据和NPP-VIIRS数据的时间范围均较短,且2种数据的时间尺度不连续,且空间分辨率和辐射分辨率不一致,因此目前主要集中于使用一种夜间灯光数据研究城镇化水平,且研究的时间跨度较短。此外,虽然已有研究表明,大尺度的社会经济活动与夜间光照情况有较强的相关关系,但在较小尺度下,这种相关性受地区经济发展以及灯光数据分辨率的影响较大,对估算精度有更高的要求,因此需要使用实际数据证明使用夜间灯光数据估算县级城镇化水平的合理性。本文使用DMSP_OLS和NPP_VIIRS夜间灯光数据,估算了2006—2015年安徽省县级尺度城镇化水平,为夜间灯光数据在长时间序列的城镇化研究中提供理论支撑。首先分别计算DMSP-OLS和NPP-VIIRS平均夜间灯光指数,以NPP-VIIRS灯光指数为自变量,以DMSP-OLS灯光指数为因变量,对2012年和2013年的2种灯光指数年数据进行曲线拟合,建立2种灯光数据的对应关系,得到2006—2015年安徽省各区县的DMSP-OLS平均夜间灯光指数;然后从人口、经济、社会生活和农业机械化4个方面选取城镇化指标,使用层次分析法计算基于统计数据的城镇化水平;最后将灯光指数与基于统计数据的城镇化水平进行相关性分析和线性回归分析,讨论了安徽省各区县灯光指数和基于统计数据的城镇化水平的时空分布的异同点,分析了同时使用两种灯光指数估算长时间序列城镇化水平的合理性。研究结果显示,灯光指数和基于统计数据的城镇化水平在县级尺度上具有高度相关性,相关系数为0.91（P<0.05）,线性回归的拟合优度R²=0.82。灯光指数和基于统计数据的城镇化水平的时空分布基本一致,空间上,安徽省城镇化水平整体分布不均衡,呈现出东高西低的规律;时间上,2006—2015年城镇化水平呈现逐年增长的趋势,合肥市辖区、马鞍山市辖区等发达城区的城镇化水平增长速度较快,而霍丘县、寿县等经济欠发达地区增长较缓慢。     

NECESSITY AND METHOD OF PUBLIC PARTICIPATION IN STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OF CHINA

1INTRODUCTIONFor recent years, many countries have increasingly paidattention to the research on strategic environmental as-sessment (SEA) and taken it as one of key supportingtools for pursing sustainable development (BROWNand THERIVEL, 2000; PRARTIDARIO…     

多源大数据支持的土地储备智能决策模型集研究

伴随着城镇化的快速推进,城乡建设用地资源日益紧张,但目前土地储备决策缺乏精准科学依据,无法有效地进行资源配置和宏观调控。针对此问题,本文深入剖析土地储备基本业务与决策环节,研究了一套面向土地储备的智能决策模型集,包括存量土地监测模型、收储成本预测模型、出让价格预测模型、储备平衡分析模型、相似地块分析模型、开发时序分析模型及病态地块识别模型,旨在将土地储备决策环节科学化、定量化和模型化,并重点为土地储备总量、效益、规模、结构、布局、时序的统筹安排提供建议。另外,该模型集具有体系化、高效灵活、智能化的特点,能够服务于储备业务全链条,满足即时决策应用需求和实现模型自主更新与进化,保证模型的时效性。最后,该模型集已经工程化应用于宁波市土地储备智能决策支持平台,实践验证了以上决策模型具有较高的准确度和实用性,表明模型集能够为土地储备的科学决策提供理论依据,有利于土地资源的集约利用和高效配置。     

滨州市城镇化建设中的土地管理探析

土地问题是城镇化建设的一个突出问题。目前城镇化进程中还存在依赖土地程度过高、土地闲置、浪费、利用率偏低、城乡用地不能统筹、管理粗放等问题。新型城镇化要走集约、智能、绿色、低碳的道路,由速度扩张向质量提升转型,这就要求城镇化进程中土地规划要更加科学、土地利用要更加节约集约,土地管理要更加精细。     

厦门市土地利用年际变化遥感分析

采用多步骤遥感图像分类以及后分类变化检测方法所得到的厦门市1989、1995和2000年的图像分类图及土地利用变化转换矩阵,查明了厦门市1989～2000年的土地利用变化：城乡建设用地、耕地以及林地／园地等主要用地类型的面积及变化;大量耕地被城市扩展侵占,数量不断减少,质量不断下降。分析认为,工业化和城市化的发展、人口的增长以及自然地理条件等因素是厦门市土地利用发生变化的主要驱动力。研究表明,利用3S技术可以快速有效地对城市土地利用年际变化进行动态监测,揭示城市土地利用动态变化的特点及其内在规律,为城市规划和政府决策部门提供参考依据。     

SCENARIOS SIMULATION OF COUPLING SYSTEM BETWEEN URBANIZATION AND ECO-ENVIRONMENT IN JIANGSU PROVINCE BASED ON SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL

1IN T R O D U C T IO NU rbanizationand eco-environment coupling is uniqueand complex,and itsmechanisms and ruleshave pro-voked much scholarship(B RENNA,1999).More than100yearsago,HOWARD(1898)publishedG ardenC ities of Tom orrow to revealthe interrelationshibpes-tween citygrowth and itseco-environment,and he triedtodealwiththeissuewithrationalplanningway,buthefailed(BOURNE and SIMMONS,1978).However,onlysincethe1920s had thetopicspeciallybeen intensfiied.AftertheChicago schoolhad…     

Spatio-temporal Dynamics of Urbanization in China Using DMSP/OLS Nighttime Light Data from 1992–2013

Understanding the dynamics of urbanization is essential to the sustainable development of cities. Meanwhile the analysis of urban development can also provide scientifically and effective information for decision-making. With the long-term Defense Meteorological Satellite Program’s Operational Linescan System(DMSP/OLS) nighttime light images, a pixel level assessment of urbanization of China from 1992 to 2013 was conducted in this study, and the spatio-temporal dynamics and future trends of urban development were fully detected. The results showed that the urbanization and urban dynamics of China experienced drastic fluctuations from 1992 to 2013, especially for those in the coastal and metropolitan areas. From a regional perspective, it was found that the urban dynamics and increasing trends in North Coast China, East Coast China and South Coast China were much more stable and significant than that in other regions. Moreover, with the sustainability estimating of nighttime light dynamics, the regional agglomeration trends of urban regions were also detected. The light intensity in nearly 50% of lighted pixels may continuously decrease in the future, indicating a severe situation of urbanization within these regions. In this study, The results revealed in this study can provided a new insight in long time urbanization detecting and is thus beneficial to the better understanding of trends and dynamics of urban development.     

THEORIES AND METHODS OF STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OF MODERN LOGISTICS DEVELOPMENT——A Case Study of Dalian City, China

1IN T R O D U C T IO N As a risingindustry,modern logisticpslaya vitalrolein thedevelopment ofurban economy . Meantime , many expertsin theworld are interestedin modern logistic.s Study on modern logisticsismostly focused on man - agement and program (HES…     

AGGLOMERATION AND RADIATION EFFECT OF THE PULL OF URBANIZATION

In order to explore the train of thought for China‘s urbanizing development and coordinated rural eco-nomic development, and to find good ways of solving rural problems through urbanization, this paper absorbs the push-and-pull forces theory and the systematic dynamic theory in the traditional population migration theories, views urbanization as a dynamic system, makes research on the push-and-pull mechanism of urbanization. The pulling power of urbanization is analyzed according to two aspects, the agglomeration effect and the radiation effect of cities. The agglomeration effect provides continuous propelling force for urbanization, and the radiation effect further accelerates the urbanization process by pushing forward the development of rural economy. Of course, the slow de-velopment of urbanization can result in the hindrance to rural economic development.     

Non-coordination in China＇s Urbanization： Assessment and Affecting Factors

Urbanization is a comprehensive concept, a trinity process that population urbanization, economic urbanization and space urbanization, is based on the interactions and mutual influences among the in which, people are the central and leading players in this process, while economic activities serve as the driving force and space is the carrier-the physical or material setting as well as the product. So the coordination among these processes is crucial for a country or region＇s sustainable development. China is experiencing rapid growth of cities and a surge in urban population, with the basic national condition of many people and little land, which calls for a systematic study of the issue of coordinated urbanization from theoretical, methodological and practical perspectives. Based on the concept of urbanization and non-coordination of urbanization, this article built a quantitative method to identify and evaluate the urbanization and non-coordination of urbanization, and made an empirical analysis in China between 2000 and 2008. The results show that the non-coordination overall level of China＇s urbanization declined during the study period, because population urbanization, economic urbanization, and space urbanization exhibited different trajectories of change. This study also reveals that performance assessment system, household registration system, and urban land expropriation system, etc., are the main affecting factors. At the end, we put forward some suggestions to achieve sustainable development of China＇s urbanization from the aspects of improving the local government＇s obiective function, imolementing the urban plalming svstem, enforcing public particination asnects and so on.     

城郊型村庄用地发展问题研究—以2002—2014年莱芜市高庄坡草洼村为例

在城镇化快速演进的背景下,我国建设用地扩展导致耕地面积减少已成为学界共识。农民对城镇化进程成本支付能力低,土地成为来分享财富用于城镇化的工具,导致农村地区频频出现村庄“空壳化”、城镇人口“两头占地”、土地利用粗放等现象。作为城郊型村庄具有明显的区位优势、环境优势和资源优势,不断诱发村庄建设用地扩展、延伸,使土地集约利用的趋势更为严峻。该文通过研究坡草洼村近12年的村庄形态的演变进程,挖掘造成村庄土地利用混乱、耕地面积不断减少、人均建设用地不断增加的原因。在保障农民土地财产权的前提下,应让静态的土地“流”起来,使沉睡的资源“活”起来,不仅能解决“就地城镇化”的土地瓶颈问题,还能让村民生活质量真正的“市民化”。     

RURAL-URBAN LABORERS''MOBILITY AND URBANIZATION IN CHINA

（孟晓晨）ＲＵＲＡＬ－ＵＲＢＡＮＬＡＢＯＲＥＲＳ＇ＭＯＢＩＬＩＴＹＡＮＤＵＲＢＡＮＩＺＡＴＩＯＮＩＮＣＨＩＮＡ￥ＭｅｎｇＸｉａｏｃｈｅｎ（ＰｅｋｉｎｇＵｎｉｖｅｒｓｉｔｙ，Ｂｅｉｊｉｎｇ１００８７１，ＰＲＣ）Ａｂｓｔｒａｃｔ：Ｕｒｂａｎｉｚａｔｋｉｎ...     

Revisiting and rethinking regional urbanization in Changjiang River Delta, China

China is entering a critical and accelerating phase of urbanization.As one of the most urbanized regions in China,the Changjiang(Yangtze)River Delta has experienced dramatic urbanization and urban transformation.However,in the recent years,many changes have taken place in this region and there is limited attention to the regional urbanization path evolution,its problems and the way to solve these problems.Therefore,we should revisit the urbanization process in the Changjiang River Delta again.In this paper,we revisited urbanization paths of the Changjiang River Delta by data analysis,influence factors of urbanization by the Gray Relational Analysis,and major challenges to urbanization of the Changjiang River Delta by theoretical considerations.We found that the urbanization of the Changjiang River Delta had experienced several stages of large-scale spatial and urban system restructuring.Within the Changjiang River Delta,Shanghai,Zhejiang and Jiangshu had experienced different urbanization path with local characteristics.But with their development model gradually converging,their urbanization model is also converging.We also found that the major influence factors affecting the Changjiang River Delta urbanization were dynamic change and urbanization was driven by different key factors in different socio-economic development stages.Meanwhile,the Changjiang River Delta urbanization is facing many problems such as existing institutional arrangements,including the hukou(household registration)system and others which can not meet the needs of current socioeconomic development and urbanization.Therefore,it is imperative to promote institutional innovation and adopt a new urbanization development strategy for the sake of the orderly and sustainable urbanization development in the Changjiang River Delta.     

武汉城市化进程对湖泊景观格局的空间非平稳性影响分析

武汉城市化过程中的土地利用变化对其湖泊生态系统产生了一系列负面影响,深入研究并分析其影响的空间非平稳性对优化武汉城市化建设和环境保护规划极具现实意义。本文运用景观生态学理论和地理加权回归建模方法,分别构建城市化测度指标和多种类型景观格局指标,衡量武汉城市化进程对于湖泊特征、景观格局的影响,从而揭示了1996~2013年间武汉城市化进程与湖泊景观格局之间的空间非平稳性关系,结果表明:1武汉城市化进程对其不同地理区域的湖泊景观格局影响存在差异,具体表现为城市化强度越大的地区,其引起并解释湖泊景观格局变化的能力越强;2在武汉市大部分地区(超过其总面积的70%),尤其集中在中部及其周边地区,城市化与湖泊景观面积、密度、连通度、斑块分维数的变化均存在负相关,且具有呈方向性的梯度变化趋势。3在某些有针对性保护的区域,如北部黄陂区,景观面积、景观连通度、斑块分维数与城市化强度指数呈现出正相关。针对上述特征本研究提出武汉市湖泊防治的对策和建议。     

面向时空可达性的城市应急医疗机构推荐方法

快速选择和分配应急医疗机构是城市突发事件应急响应的一个重要方面。医疗机构的地理位置和城市实时交通是影响城市医疗机构时空可达性的主要因素,医疗机构的资源数量和突发事件的救助需求是否匹配决定了医疗服务的可及性。本文综合考虑以上影响因素,将医疗机构的地理位置、实时道路通行情况、医疗机构等级及其资源数量以及突发事件的救助需求作为选择指标,建立适合城市突发事件应急救助需求的医疗机构选择模型,设计其算法流程并利用青岛市相关数据进行实验,验证其可行性及关键步骤的作用。本文提出的应急医疗机构选择模型及算法能够在推荐医疗机构的同时完成救治人员分配和路线规划,提高了应急医疗机构的选择效率,对城市突发事件应急响应具有一定的应用价值和决策指导意义。     

Measurement and spatio-temporal distribution of urbanization development quality of urban agglomeration in China

Urbanization development quality (UDQ) of urban agglomeration (UA) is one of the important indexes to evaluate if the UA urbanization speed is reasonable, if the population urbanization process is sound, if the economic urbanization process is efficient, if the social urbanization process is harmonious and fair, which is generally composed of three parts, including economic urbanization development quality, social urbanization development quality and spatial urbanization security quality. With the research of evolution rules of UDQ, through the analysis on the interactive coordination relation between UDQ and urbanization level, the paper proposes three dimensional index ball and standard value of comprehensive measures of UDQ, which is composed of three categories of indexes. By introducing Atkinson model, this paper constructs the sub-element measure model and segmental measure model of UDQ, and further makes an overall evaluation on the characteristic of UDQ of UAs in China. Results show that: 1) UDQ of UAs lied at optimization and upgrading phase during 1995–2008 and the quality was low. Population urbanization level did not reflect the UDQ of UAs; 2) the improving speed of the spatial urbanization security quality was higher than the social urbanization development quality, and the improving speed of economic urbanization development quality was the lowest; 3) the coordination between UDQ and urbanization level was not so good; 4) there was a weak correlation relation between UDQ and UA scale, and it was not true that the bigger the UA was, the better the UDQ was.