Assessment of water quality and identification of pollution sources of three lakes in Kashmir, India, using multivariate analysis

Multivariate statistical techniques, such as cluster analysis, principal component analysis (PCA) and factor analysis (FA) were applied to evaluate and interpret the water quality data set for 13 parameters at 10 different sites of the three lakes in Kashmir, India. Physicochemical parameters varied significantly (p?<?0.05) among the sampling sites. Hierarchical cluster analysis grouped 10 sampling sites into three clusters of less polluted, moderately polluted and highly polluted sites, based on similarity of water quality characteristics. FA/PCA applied to data sets resulted in three principal components accounting for a cumulative variance of 69.84, 65.05 and 71.76% for Anchar Lake, Khushalsar Lake and Dal Lake, respectively. Factor analysis obtained from principal components (PCs) indicated that factors responsible for accelerated eutrophication of the three lakes are domestic waste waters, agricultural runoff and to some extent catchment geology. This study assesses water quality of three lakes through multivariate statistical analysis of data sets for effective management of these lakes.     

The use of long-term biological data to generate testable hypotheses

Long-term biological data sets are typically collected, analyzed for their periodicities, possibly correlated with some suspected forcing function(s), published and forgotten. To fully utilize such long-term data sets for management decisions and basic scientific inquiry, they should be used to generate new ideas and as the basis for testing new hypotheses. Rarely is this done! Ten plus years of monthly or fortnightly data on meiofauna abundance from a mud and a sand site in North Inlet, South Carolina, indicate very different seasonal patterns, and thus controlling mechanisms, at the two sites. The mud site faunal abundance appears predator controlled; the sand site fauna physically controlled. Using the 10+-year data set as the base, a series of experiments are proposed to test whether the mud meiofauna are predator controlled. Additionally, the copepod species composition at the sand site has changed over the sampling period; interstitial species have almost disappeared, while epibenthic species abundance has remained constant. The elimination of the interstitial forms is thought to be the result of increasing silt/clay at the site. Experiments are proposed to test the effect of changing silt/clay content or species composition in sandy habitats.     

Nutrient and Phytoplankton Dynamics in Harima-Nada, Eastern Seto Inland Sea, Japan During a 35-Year Period from 1973 to 2007

Long-term monitoring of water quality and phytoplankton was conducted at 19 sampling stations in Harima-Nada, eastern Seto Inland Sea, Japan for 35 years from 1973 to 2007. There were two significant long-term changes, an increase in winter water temperatures of 0.042°C year^?1, and a decrease in dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) from about 10 μM in the 1970s to ~5 μM in the late 1990s due to the reduction in nutrient inputs. DIN concentrations and total phytoplankton cell density were both higher during the 1970s to the early 1980s and then exhibited a significant decrease in the mid 1980s and remained relatively constant thereafter. Diatoms were the dominant phytoplankton group (>90%) over the 35-year period, and there was a dramatic shift from Skeletonema dominance (~70%) to Chaetoceros in the mid 1980s. This shift in diatom species may be attributed to differences in the life cycle of Skeletonema and Chaetoceros and the response to the decrease in DIN concentration.     

Portable autonomous vertical profiler for estuarine applications

The design and implementation of a portable autonomous vertical profiler are documented and example data sets from a mesotidal estuary and a microtidal, wind-driven estuary are presented. The profiler sampling range dynamically adjusts to changes in water column depth, and a typical vertical sampling resolution of 4 cm is attained. Example data show the onset and vertical and temporal extent of stratification in the water column. The profiler is ideal for water quality monitoring programs in shallow estuaries that require frequent profiles of hydrographic, chemical, and biological parameters that can be measured in situ.     

Tide gauge records,water level rise,and subsidence in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

Long-term water level changes in the northern Gulf of Mexico were examined using tide gauge records for this century. Strong coherence exists between the annual mean water changes at Galveston, Texas, and (1) the relatively geologically-stable west coast of Florida, (2) global mean sea level, and 93) the subsiding Louisiana coast. Water levels at the Galveston gauge, one of the longest records (81 yr), have risen steadily, but not accelerated over the long-term. The apparent acceleration of water rise in the recent two decades is within the historical pattern, and is probably driven by regional or global, but not local climatic factors. Because eustatic sea level has risen steadily this century, the analysis supports the conclusion that regional geologic subsidence has not varied significantly over the tide gauge record (1909–1988). Variations in the estimates of subsidence in the surface layers are generally consistent with the generally accepted understanding of the geology of deltaic processes on this coast.     

Trickle Down? Private sector participation and the pro-poor water supply debate in Jakarta, Indonesia

Private sector partnerships (PSPs) have been increasingly advocated as an instrument of ‘pro-poor’ water supply policies. This article examines the performance of the private sector with respect to network connections for poor households in Jakarta, Indonesia, drawing on three sources: data collected through a household survey of poor households in six Jakarta neighbourhoods in 2005; data provided by the two private concessionaires and the Jakarta municipal government; and interviews with water supply managers, government officials, and NGO representatives in 2001 and 2005. The analysis concludes that the Jakarta PSP contract has not been pro-poor: new connections were preferentially targeted at middle and upper-income households over the period 1998-2005, and the numbers of new connections have been lower than the original targets. The paper argues that the failure to connect the poor is not solely attributable to the private operators, and identifies disincentives to provide individual network connections to poor households on the part of the municipality, the private concessionaires and poor households. The paper concludes by questioning the long-term ability of private sector operators to supply water to the poor.     

Effects of urbanization on groundwater resources of Merida, Yucatan, Mexico

 Groundwater quality in the city of Merida, Yucatan, Mexico, where dependence on groundwater supply is 100%, is affected by urbanization. Data from the sampling of shallow wells and boreholes along with water level records are used to study the aquifer. Chemical changes in time of the bottom and top half of the freshwater zone are the basis for hydrogeochemistry. The comparison of 1970 data (which represent information prior to urbanization) to 1991, suggests that the most affected (contaminated) areas coincide with that of urbanization. Received: 1 October 1997 · Accepted: 23 February 1998     

Assessment of groundwater quality using multivariate statistical techniques in Hashtgerd Plain, Iran

Multivariate statistical techniques, such as cluster analysis (CA), factor analysis (FA), principal component analysis (PCA), and discriminant analysis (DA), were applied for the evaluation of variations and the interpretation of a large complex groundwater quality data set of the Hashtgerd Plain. In view of this, 13 parameters were measured in groundwater of 26 different wells for two periods. Hierarchical CA grouped the 26 sampling sites into two clusters based on the similarity of groundwater quality characteristics. FA based on PCA, was applied to the data sets of the two different groups obtained from CA, and resulted in three and five effective factors explaining 79.56 and 81.57% of the total variance in groundwater quality data sets of the two clusters, respectively. The main factors obtained from FA indicate that the parameters influencing groundwater quality are mainly related to natural (dissolution of soil and rock), point source (domestic wastewater) and non-point source pollution (agriculture and orchard practices) in the sampling sites of Hashtgerd Plain. DA provided an important data reduction as it uses only three parameters, i.e., electrical conductivity (EC), magnesium (Mg²⁺) and pH, affording more than 98% correct assignations, to discriminate between the two clusters of groundwater wells in the plain. Overall, the results of this study present the effectiveness of the combined use of multivariate statistical techniques for interpretation and reduction of a large data set and for identification of sources for effective groundwater quality management.     

Automatic estimation of aquifer parameters using long-term water supply pumping and injection records

Analyses are presented of long-term hydrographs perturbed by variable pumping/injection events in a confined aquifer at a municipal water-supply well field in the Region of Waterloo, Ontario (Canada). Such records are typically not considered for aquifer test analysis. Here, the water-level variations are fingerprinted to pumping/injection rate changes using the Theis model implemented in the WELLS code coupled with PEST. Analyses of these records yield a set of transmissivity (T) and storativity (S) estimates between each monitoring and production borehole. These individual estimates are found to poorly predict water-level variations at nearby monitoring boreholes not used in the calibration effort. On the other hand, the geometric means of the individual T and S estimates are similar to those obtained from previous pumping tests conducted at the same site and adequately predict water-level variations in other boreholes. The analyses reveal that long-term municipal water-level records are amenable to analyses using a simple analytical solution to estimate aquifer parameters. However, uniform parameters estimated with analytical solutions should be considered as first rough estimates. More accurate hydraulic parameters should be obtained by calibrating a three-dimensional numerical model that rigorously captures the complexities of the site with these data.     

Palaeoecological records as a guide for fire management in Killarney National Park,Ireland

Climate change is allowing fire to expand into previously unburnt ecosystems and regions. While management policies such as fire suppression have significantly altered their frequency and intensity. To prevent future biodiversity/ecosystem services loss, and the large financial burden of wildfires, management plans will be required to adapt to future climate and land use changes. Long-term ecological data offer a unique perspective to assess fire variability under different climate and land-use conditions. In this study, we focus on Killarney National Park, Ireland. An area which today is under threat from an increase in fire activity. Comparing palaeoecological and archaeological records, we reconstruct the past fire dynamic and its impact on the landscape, and evaluate the role of climate vs humans in influencing the natural fire regime over the millennial time-scale. Our results indicate that fire has been present in the landscape since the beginning of the Holocene, with fire in the early Holocene being largely controlled by climate and microsite conditions, and in the late Holocene being increasingly influenced by human activity. The knowledge of past fire regimes can help inform future management in order to protect the semi-natural native woodland. The park's present landscape mosaic, could be preserved by limiting forest encroachment through moderate grazing and burning, while also protecting any fragmented forest from excessive grazing and large/intense fires, via traditional fire management strategies such as fuel load management. However, a fire management strategy should only be implemented following careful consideration of all ecosystem factors and controls.     

Stable-isotope and solute-chemistry approaches to flow characterization in a forested tropical watershed,Luquillo Mountains,Puerto Rico

The prospect of changing climate has led to uncertainty about the resilience of forested mountain watersheds in the tropics. In watersheds where frequent, high rainfall provides ample runoff, we often lack understanding of how the system will respond under conditions of decreased rainfall or drought. Factors that govern water supply, such as recharge rates and groundwater storage capacity, may be poorly quantified. This paper describes 8-year data sets of water stable isotope composition (δ²H and δ¹⁸O) of precipitation (4 sites) and a stream (1 site), and four contemporaneous stream sample sets of solute chemistry and isotopes, used to investigate watershed response to precipitation inputs in the 1780-ha Río Mameyes basin in the Luquillo Mountains of northeastern Puerto Rico. Extreme δ²H and δ¹⁸O values from low-pressure storm systems and the deuterium excess (d-excess) were useful tracers of watershed response in this tropical system. A hydrograph separation experiment performed in June 2011 yielded different but complementary information from stable isotope and solute chemistry data. The hydrograph separation results indicated that 36% of the storm rain that reached the soil surface left the watershed in a very short time as runoff. Weathering-derived solutes indicated near-stream groundwater was displaced into the stream at the beginning of the event, followed by significant dilution. The more biologically active solutes exhibited a net flushing behavior. The d-excess analysis suggested that streamflow typically has a recent rainfall component (∼25%) with transit time less than the sampling resolution of 7 days, and a more well-mixed groundwater component (∼75%). The contemporaneous stream sample sets showed an overall increase in dissolved solute concentrations with decreasing elevation that may be related to groundwater inputs, different geology, and slope position. A considerable amount of water from rain events runs off as quickflow and bypasses subsurface watershed flowpaths, and better understanding of shallow hillslope and deeper groundwater processes in the watershed will require sub-weekly data and detailed transit time modeling. A combined isotopic and solute chemistry approach can guide further studies to a more comprehensive model of the hydrology, and inform decisions for managing water supply with future changes in climate and land use.     

花粉植被化与全球古植被计划研究

花粉是全球陆地分布最广的古气候环境信息来源。以花粉为基本资料的重建全球古植被计划自１９９４年实施以来,经数百名国际学者包括我国在内的第四纪花粉学等领域的专家合格,在综合和重建晚第四纪植被和制图方面取得了重大进展。研究成果提出了６ｋａＢＰ和１８ｋａ ＢＰ两个时期的植被,在填补地理空白的基础上构成了全球规模古植被分布。     

Quaternary environmental changes in tropical Lake Towuti,Indonesia, inferred from end-member modelling of X-ray fluorescence core-scanning data

Continental and marine sediments are composed of a mixture from different sources and are influenced by a variety of environmental factors and transport processes prior to deposition. For analysis and interpretation, these sources and processes are often challenging to disentangle. We show that end-member modelling of X-ray fluorescence (XRF) core-scanning data helps to overcome these challenges by unmixing different environmental signals from high-resolution sediment geochemical records. We apply this approach to a 100 m long lacustrine succession from Lake Towuti, Indonesia, to separate the regional climate and tectonic history from local ecological and diagenetic processes. The resulting six end-members (EMs) are interpreted to represent changes in ecological (EM1), climatic (EMs 2–4), tectonic (EM 5) and geomorphic (EM6) processes determining changes in sediment composition. Because end-member analysis allows for the tracking of transient and overlapping processes, climatic changes can be followed throughout the 100 m-long succession, suggesting alternating wet and dry periods in Central Sulawesi over long (several 100 000 years) time scales. We show that end-member analysis on elemental data sets offers a detailed and objective means to disentangle depositional processes in sedimentary successions resulting from varying tectonic and environmental factors involved in sediment formation and deposition.     

Paleoclimate studies and natural-resource management in the Murray-Darling Basin I: past,present and future climates

This paper provides an incisive review of paleoclimate science and its relevance to natural-resource management within the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB). The drought of 1997–2010 focussed scientific, public and media attention on intrinsic climate variability and the confounding effect of human activity, especially in terms of water-resource management. Many policy and research reviews make statements about future planning with little consideration of climate change and without useful actionable knowledge. In order to understand future climate changes, modellers need, and demand, better paleoclimate data to constrain their model projections. Here, we present an insight into a number of existing long-term paleoclimate studies relevant to the MDB. Past records of climate, in response to orbital forcing (glacial–interglacial cycles) are found within, and immediately outside, the MDB. High-resolution temperature records, spanning the last 10⁵ years, exist from floodplains and cave speleothems, as well as evidence from lakes and their associated lunettes. More recently, historical climate records show major changes in relation to El Niño–Southern Oscillation cycles and decadal shifts in rainfall regimes. A considerable body of research currently exists on the past climates of southeastern Australia but, this has not been collated and validated over large spatial scales. It is clear that a number of knowledge gaps still exist, and there is a pressing need for the establishment of new paleoclimatic research within the MDB catchment and within adjacent, sensitive catchments if past climate science is to fulfil its potential to provide policy-relevant information to natural-resource management into the future.     

Abundance fluctuations among benthic invertebrates in two pacific estuaries

Long-term studies were used to examine (1) contrasting time scales and mechanisms of structural variations within two benthic communities and (2) the usefulness of long data sets for evaluating human impact. A 10-year study of a San Francisco Bay mudflat, the details of which are reported elsewhere, has revealed large short-term (on the order of months) variations in species abundances within a community composed predominantly of opportunistic species. The study site, located in a highly urbanized estuary, is subject to the influence of a nearby sewage-treatment facility. However, rapid changes in population size of the common species, in part due to periodic natural habitat disturbance, impedes the detection of anthropogenic influences on community composition. Only a very long-term data set may provide evidence of progressive change. Data collected for a 20-year period on the benthic community at 200 m depth in the main basin of Puget Sound, an environment subject to little apparent habitat disturbance show that numerical abundance of the common species can also change markedly. Here, however, numerical dominance shifts from one species to another at irregular, multiyear intervals. Recent increases in two heretofore rare species, and a significant increase in total numbers of individuals suggest that long-term changes may be occurring in this community. These two long-term data sets demonstrate the importance of measuring both the amplitude and the periodicity of fluctuations in population size of aquatic species as well as long-term fluctuations and patterns in environmental factors before attempting to demonstrate the effect of anthropogenic influences on aquatic communities. The results of these studies also demonstrate the usefulness of long-term data sets for revealing the potential importance of interactions among species in determining abundance patterns in the soft-bottom benthos.     

Ferry-based monitoring of surface water quality in North Carolina estuaries

Several interrelated factors affect, water quality in the Albemarle-Pamlico Estuarine System (APES) including land use change in the upland and coastal watersheds, legislatively mandated basin-wide nutrient management plans, intense storms, and global and local changes in sea level. Despite its importance as an essential fish habitat, the APES has not been monitored as intensively or extensively for habitat impacts associated with decreased water quality as other estuaries have been, such as with the North Carolina tributary estuaries or Chesapeake Bay. To support the sustainable use of these estuaries, we are developing an automated water quality monitoring system aboard ferries that traverse the APES. This program, FerryMon, provides a unique, long-term, and cost-effective monitoring system to evaluate status and trends in APES water quality. Intensive temporal and spatial data obtained from all ferry routes provide an environmental baseline and are used to assess the patterns and variability in surface water hydrography, dissolved constituents, and particulate matter. The data are useful to calibrate estimates of ocean color and sea surface temperature from aircraft and satellite sensors. We are creating a searchable geographic database that is intended for scientists, managers, and the general public. Using ferries as sampling platforms to monitor estuarine water quality is a tractable approach and FerryMon represents a model for use in other large bodies of water traversed by ferries.     

Postglacial fire,vegetation, and climate history across an elevational gradient in the Northern Rocky Mountains,USA and Canada

A 13,100-year-long high-resolution pollen and charcoal record from Foy Lake in western Montana is compared with a network of vegetation and fire-history records from the Northern Rocky Mountains. New and previously published results were stratified by elevation into upper and lower and tree line to explore the role of Holocene climate variability on vegetation dynamics and fire regimes. During the cooler and drier Lateglacial period, ca 13,000 cal yr BP, sparsely vegetated Picea parkland occupied Foy Lake as well as other low- and high-elevations with a low incidence of fire. During the warmer early Holocene, from ca 11,000–7500 cal yr BP, low-elevation records, including Foy, indicate significant restructuring of regional vegetation as Lateglacial Picea parkland gave way to a mixed forest of Pinus-Pseudotsuga-Larix. In contrast, upper tree line sites (ca >2000 m) supported Pinus albicaulis and/or P. monticola-Abies-Picea forests in the Lateglacial and early Holocene. Regionally, biomass burning gradually increased from the Lateglacial times through the middle Holocene. However, upper tree line fire-history records suggest several climate-driven decreases in biomass burning centered at 11,500, 8500, 4000, 1600 and 500 cal yr BP. In contrast, lower tree line records generally experienced a gradual increase in biomass burning from the Lateglacial to ca 8000 cal yr BP, then reduced fire activity until a late Holocene maximum at 1800 cal yr BP, as structurally complex mesophytic forests at Foy Lake and other sites supported mixed-severity fire regimes. During the last two millennia, fire activity decreased at low elevations as modern forests developed and the climate became cooler and wetter than before. Embedded within these long-term trends are high amplitude variations in both vegetation dynamics and biomass burning. High-elevation paleoecological reconstructions tend to be more responsive to long-term changes in climate forcing related to growing-season temperature. Low-elevation records in the NRM have responded more abruptly to changes in effective precipitation during the late Holocene. Prolonged droughts, including those between 1200 and 800 cal yr BP, and climatic cooling during the last few centuries continues to influence vegetation and fire regimes at low elevation while increasing temperature has increased biomass burning in high elevations.     

On the design of paleoenvironmental data networks for estimating large-scale patterns of climate

Guidelines are determined for the spatial density and location of climatic variables (temperature and precipitation) that are appropriate for estimating the continental- to hemispheric-scale pattern of atmospheric circulation (sea-level pressure). Because instrumental records of temperature and precipitation simulate the climatic information that is contained in certain paleoenvironmental records (tree-ring, pollen, and written-documentary records, for example), these guidelines provide useful sampling strategies for reconstructing the pattern of atmospheric circulation from paleoenvironmental records. The statistical analysis uses a multiple linear regression model. The sampling strategies consist of changes in site density (from 0.5 to 2.5 sites per million square kilometers) and site location (from western North American sites only to sites in Japan, North America, and western Europe) of the climatic data. The results showed that the accuracy of specification of the pattern of sea-level pressure: (1) is improved if sites with climatic records are spread as uniformly as possible over the area of interest; (2) increases with increasing site density-at least up to the maximum site density used in this study; (3) is improved if sites cover an area that extends considerably beyond the limits of the area of interest. The accuracy of specification was lower for independent data than for the data that were used to develop the regression model; some skill was found for almost all sampling strategies.     

Understanding the origin and analysis of sediment-charcoal records with a simulation model

Interpreting sediment-charcoal records is challenging because there is little information linking charcoal production from fires to charcoal accumulation in lakes. We present a numerical model simulating the major processes involved in this pathway. The model incorporates the size, location, and frequency of fires, primary and secondary charcoal transport, sediment mixing, and sediment sampling. We use the model as a tool to evaluate assumptions of charcoal dispersal and taphonomy and to assess the merits of inferring local and regional fire history by decomposing charcoal records into low-frequency (‘background’) and high-frequency (‘peak’) components. Under specific dispersal scenarios, the model generates records similar in appearance to sediment-charcoal records from Alaskan boreal forests. These scenarios require long-distance dispersal (e.g. 10⁰–10¹ km), consistent with observations from wildfires but longer than previously inferred from experimental dispersal data. More generally, charcoal accumulation in simulated records mainly reflects area burned within the charcoal source area. Variability in charcoal peak heights is primarily explained by the size of charcoal source areas relative to the size of simulated fires, with an increase in this ratio resulting in increased variability in peak heights. Mixing and multi-year sampling add noise to charcoal records, obscuring the relationship between area burned and charcoal accumulation. This noise highlights the need for statistical treatments of charcoal records. Using simulated records we demonstrate that long-term averages of charcoal accumulation (>10×mean fire return interval) correlate well with area burned within the entire charcoal source area. We further demonstrate how decomposing simulated records to isolate the peak component emphasizes fire occurrence at smaller spatial scales (<1 km radius), despite the importance of long-distance charcoal dispersal in simulating charcoal records similar to observations. Together, these results provide theoretical support for the analysis of charcoal records using the decomposition approach.     

Tropical Atlantic SST history inferred from Ca isotope thermometry over the last 140ka

Exploring the potentials of new methods in palaeothermometry is essential to improve our understanding of past climate change. Here, we present a refinement of the published δ^44/40Ca-temperature calibration investigating modern specimens of planktonic foraminifera Globigerinoides sacculifer and apply this to sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions over the last two glacial-interglacial cycles. Reproduced measurements of modern G. sacculifer collected from surface waters describe a linear relationship for the investigated temperature range (19.0-28.5 °C): δ^44/40Ca [‰] = 0.22 (±0.05)∗SST [°C] −4.88. Thus a change of δ^44/40Ca[‰] of 0.22 (±0.05) corresponds to a relative change of 1 °C. The refined δ^44/40Ca_modern-calibration allows the determination of both relative temperature changes and absolute temperatures in the past. This δ^44/40Ca_modern-calibration for G. sacculifer has been applied to the tropical East Atlantic sediment core GeoB1112 for which other SST proxy data are available. Comparison of the different data sets gives no indication for significant secondary overprinting of the δ^44/40Ca signal. Long-term trends in reconstructed SST correlate strongly with temperature records derived from oxygen isotopes and Mg/Ca ratios supporting the methods validity. The observed change of SST of approximately 3 °C at the Holocene-last glacial maximum transition reveals additional evidence for the important role of the tropical Atlantic in triggering global climate change, based on a new independent palaeothermometer.