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1.
ENSO及其年代际异常对全球及亚洲季风降水影响的数值研究 总被引:17,自引:5,他引:17
根据诊断分析结果,利用LAGS改进的L9R15气候谱模式,设计了3个数值试验,讨论了不同的年代际背景下ENSO异常对全球降水,特别是对亚洲季风降水的影响。试验结果表明,在年代际的冷、暖背景下,当出现ENSO事件时,降水响应的异常场在ENSO的不同发展阶段上,表现显著不同。出现这种差异的物理过程可以用与垂直环流相联系的势函数的变化来表示。暖背景下,当ENSO处于发展时期,比冷背景下更容易出现强烈反Walker的环流,但在ENSO处于衰减期更容易产生强烈的Walker环流,这就意味着暖背景时的ENSO异常对大气影响的幅度更大。 相似文献
2.
运用小波分析方法和相关分析对东亚季的准两年振荡的存在及其与ENSO变率的关系进行了研究,结果指出:东亚季风具有显著的准两年振荡特征,但周期与振幅具有明显的年代际变化,同时东亚季风的QBO过程与ElNino事件具有密切的联系; 相似文献
3.
1961~1997年110~140°E垂直经圈环流的年际变化特征及其与海温变化的关系 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
用 NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分析了 1961~ 1997各年 1月和 7月的大气垂直 经圈环流的变化特征,特别分析了110~140°E平均的垂直经圈环流和其中的东亚季风环 流。计算了各年的经圈环流与多年平均垂直经圈环流之相似系数、差异系数和相对强度。文 中除讨论了它们的年际和10年际变化外,还讨论了东亚季风环流强弱变化与ENSO循环的 关系。结果表明:(1)垂直经圈环流除有年变化外,存在着较明显的年际和年代际变化。1 月的全球平均经圈环流1966~1974年较弱,1976~1987年较强;7月的全球垂直经圈环流 则是1963~1974年较强,1986~1995年则相对较弱。(2)110~140°E的平均经圈环流主要 特点是: 1月东亚季风环流圈代替了北半球的Ferrel环流圈,7月东亚季风环流圈代替了北 半球的Hadley环流圈,而且其10年际变化也比较明显。(3)东亚季风环流强弱的变化与 ENSO循环有一定的关系。 相似文献
4.
ENSO对亚洲夏季风环流和中国夏季降水影响的诊断研究 总被引:24,自引:2,他引:24
文中以SVD分析技术为基础,发展了一种用以提取一个矢量场和一个标量场耦合信号的统计诊断方法——联合SVD方法(简记为CSVD),并运用CSVD分析了ENSO对亚洲季风环流系统及中国夏季降水的年际变化的影响。结果表明,在ElNino年,印度夏季风减弱,东亚夏季风增强;而在LaNina年,印度夏季风增强,东亚夏季风减弱。且ENSO对亚洲夏季风环流影响显著的区域主要在长江流域南北气流交汇区和索马里急流区,而对中国夏季降水影响最显著的区域则在江淮流域。 相似文献
5.
冬季亚洲大陆的热力差异和中国气候的关系 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
最近的一些研究发现,除了海陆之间的热力差异外,大陆内部也存在热力差异。通过合成及t检验方法分析了亚洲大陆内部区域热力差异的变化特征,探讨了年代际尺度上大陆热力状况的季节变化与东亚初夏和夏季环流、季风活动、中国降水变化的关系。结果表明:正指数年代,在经向上从冬至夏东亚大陆由冷变暖,25°N以北中高纬度对流层高层有气温正距平下传,纬向上高原东侧我国大陆地区春夏季迅速增温。相比之下,海洋上的热力变化不明显,一直维持负距平,海陆热力差异偏大,东亚初夏季风建立偏早,夏季风强度偏强,相应地长江流域初夏降水偏多,夏季降水偏少,华北和西南部分地区夏季降水偏多。相反地,负指数年代海陆热力差异的变化将会减弱海陆之间的热力对比,不利于初夏季风的建立和夏季风加强,上述地区降水的变化大致与正指数年代相反。 相似文献
6.
亚洲季风与ENSO循环的相互作用 总被引:21,自引:6,他引:21
ENSO事件对亚洲季风有很大影响,特别是对东亚夏季风环流有较大影响。许多观测事实表明,在ENSO事件处于发展阶段的夏季,江淮流域往往发生洪涝,黄河流域往往发生干旱,东北地区往往发生冷夏。本研究利用观测资料分析了亚洲季风对ENSO事件发生的影响。分析结果表明,在ENSO事件发生前,在热带太平洋上空对流层下层有明显的西风异常;这个西风异常将会加强东传暖Kelvin波和西传冷Rossby波,为ENSO循环提供必要的赤道海洋波动条件;并且这个西风异常与东亚季风区西风异常向南传播有密切关系。通过遥相关分析表明,东亚季风西风异常的南传是通过欧亚型遥相关的波列来实现。通过分析,本研究提出一种亚洲季风与ENSO循环相互作用的物理图像。 相似文献
7.
近30余年来盛夏东亚东南季风和西南季风频率的年代际变化及其与青藏高原积雪的关系 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
利用地面观测资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料集,使用相关分析、合成分析等方法,在将地面风分为东南季风和西南季风的基础上,分析了近30余年来盛夏东亚季风频率的年代际变化特征。结果表明:盛夏东南季风、西南季风频率和前期春季青藏高原积雪均在21世纪初期发生了显著的年代际变化;东南季风、西南季风频率由较少改变为较多,春季青藏高原积雪则由深变浅。由于青藏高原积雪厚度发生了年代际变浅,说明青藏高原发生了年代际变暖和南亚高压变强,南亚高压的年代际变强,使得其下游对流层低层(18°~28°N,108°~118°E)的反气旋性环流异常增强,有利于东亚西南季风频率的增加;同时,由于高原发生湿反馈作用,使得淮河地区降水发生年代际变多,由Sverdrup涡度平衡关系,降水的异常增多通过潜热释放,使得东亚副热带高压异常加强,而副热带高压异常变强则有利于盛夏东亚东南季风频率发生年代际增加。 相似文献
8.
北太平洋海温异常与东亚夏季风相互作用的年代际变化 总被引:44,自引:6,他引:44
主要利用英国气象局提供的海温资料和NCAR/NCEP提供的40年高度场及风场资料分析了东亚夏季风与北太平洋SSTA的关系,指出两者之间相互作用存在着年代际变化特征,70年代中期以前,北太平海异常通过一大;圆波列作用于东亚夏季风,造成我国华北地区夏季降水偏多,76年以后,北太平洋海温异常使大圆波列减弱,与东亚夏季风关系淡漠,不再影响华北降水。由此指出:影响东亚天气气候的海温关键区,并不总固定在某一海 相似文献
9.
青藏高原增暖对东亚夏季风的影响——大气环流模式数值模拟研究 总被引:3,自引:4,他引:3
20世纪50年代以来,随着全球海表面温度年代际变化和全球变暖现象的出现,东亚夏季风降水和环流场也出现相应的年代际变化。是什么原因引起这个长期的变化趋势?研究表明青藏高原增暖可能是导致东亚夏季风年代际变化的重要因子之一。为了能够更好地理解青藏高原地表状况对下游东亚季风的影响,作者使用德国马普气象研究所大气环流模式(ECHAM)进行一系列数值试验。在两组敏感性试验中,通过改变高原上的地表反照率从而达到改变地表温度的目的。数值试验结果表明:青藏高原增暖有助于增强对流层上层的南亚高压、高原北侧西风急流和高原南侧东风急流以及印度低空西南季风;与此同时,东亚地区低层西南气流水汽输送增强。高原增暖后降水场的变化表现为:印度西北部季风降水增加,长江中下游以及朝鲜半岛梅雨降水增多;在太平洋副热带高压控制下的西北太平洋地区和孟加拉湾东北部,季风降水减少。对数值模拟结果的初步诊断分析表明:在感热加热和对流引起的潜热加热相互作用下,南亚高压强度加强,东亚夏季低层西南季风增大、梅雨锋降水增强,高原东部对流层上层的副热带气旋性环流增加,以及对流层低层的西太平洋副热带高压增强。另外,在青藏高原增暖的背景下,孟加拉湾地区季风降水减弱。本项研究有助于更好地理解东亚夏季风年代际变化特征和未来气候变化趋势。 相似文献
10.
ENSO及其对亚洲季风和我国气候变化影响的研究 总被引:11,自引:0,他引:11
ENSO及其对亚洲季风和我国气候变化影响的研究是当今气候研究中的重要问题,本文总结了作者在《气候动力学和气候预测方法研究》项目中有关专题“大洋,尤其ENSO和西太平洋暖池对东亚大气环流和我国气候影响”的研究工作,主要分三方面:1,ENSO是多时空尺度海气相互作用的结果-ENSO形成机理的研究;2.MENSO对我国东亚季风和我国气候影响,3,ENSO及其对我国气候影响的可预报性和预报试验。 相似文献
11.
INTERRELATION BETWEEN EAST-ASIAN WINTER MONSOON AND INDIAN/PACIFIC SST WITH THE INTERDECADAL VARIATION*
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Investigated statistically is the interrelation between East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and SST over sensitive areas of the Indian and Pacific Oceans.with focus on the relation of EAWM to strong ENSO signal area.i.e.,the equatorial eastern Pacific (EEP) SST.Evidence suggests that the EAWM variation is intimately associated not only with the EEP SST but with the equatorial western Pacific "warm pool" and equatorial Indian/northwestern Pacific Kuroshio SST as well:the EAWM and ENSO interact strongly with each other on the interannual time scales,exhibiting pronounced interdecadal variation mainly under the joint effect of the monsoon QBO and the monsoon/SST background field features on an interdecadal basis-when both fields are in the same phase(anti-phase).strong EAWM contributes to EEP SST rise(drop)in the following winter,corresponding to a warm(cold)ENSO cycle;the EAWM QBO causes ENSO cycle to be strong phase-locked with seasonal variation,making the EEP SST rise lasting from April-May to May-June of the next year,which plays an important role in maintaining a warm ENSO phase. 相似文献
12.
运用相关及滑动相关的计算技术,讨论了近百年东亚冬季风与ENSO循环的相互关系及其年代际异常。研究指出,东亚冬季风与赤道东太平洋海温的年际关系具有年代际的变化特征;季风与ENSO循环的关系受到季风的QBO以及季风-海洋的年代际背景场配置关系的共同作用;当季风与海洋的背景场处于同样状态时,强冬季风有利于第二年冬季赤道东太平洋的升温,产生El Ni?o事件;当两者的背景场处于反位相状态时,强冬季风对应于第二年冬季的La Ni?a位相。 相似文献
13.
FEATURES AND COMPARISONS OF THE QUASI-BIENNIAL VARIATIONS IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC MONSOON SUBSYSTEMS 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data, Climate
Diagnostics Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) results, and NOAA Extended Reconstructed
Sea Surface Temperature (SST), have been utilized in this paper to study the quasi-biennial variations in
Asia-Pacific monsoon subsystems and associated SST anomalies (SSTA) and wind anomalies. Four
monsoon indices are computed from NCEP/ National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis
to represent the South Asian monsoon (SAM), South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM), Western
North Pacific monsoon (WNPM) and East Asian monsoon (EAM), respectively. The quasi-biennial periods
are very significant in Asia-Pacific monsoons (as discovered by power spectrum analysis), and for SAM
and EAM---with moderate effects by El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)---the quasi-biennial periods are
the most important factor. For SCSSM and WNPM (once again due to the effects of ENSO), the
quasi-biennial periods are of secondary durations. There are obvious interdecadal variations in the
quasi-biennial modes of the Asia-Pacific monsoon, so in the negative phase the biennial modes will not be
significant or outstanding. The wind anomalies and SSTA associated with the biennial modes are very
different in the SAM, WNPM and EAM regions. Since the WNPM and SCSSM are very similar in the
biennial modes, they can be combined into one subsystem, called SCS/WNPM. 相似文献
14.
印度与东亚夏季风环流对ENSO及其年代际异常响应的数值研究 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
根据诊断分析结果,利用LAGS改进的L9R15气候谱模式,设计了3个数值试验,讨论了不同的年代际背景下ENSO异常对亚洲夏季风环流的影响。研究表明不同背景的ENSO异常与亚洲夏季风活动存在密切的关系。在冷背景条件下,当ENSO处于发展时,印度夏季风偏弱,风速较小,降水量偏少。而东亚夏季风偏南气流较强,受低气压控制,有利于气流辐合,降水量偏多。在ENSO衰减期,印度夏季风仍偏弱,风速偏小,具有干旱的趋势,而东亚夏季风区大陆仍为低气压控制,风速略有减小,降水量比正常年多,而比ENSO前一年有减少的趋势。在暖背 相似文献
15.
The interannual variability of East Asian Monsoon and its relationship with SST in a coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Land climate model 总被引:5,自引:1,他引:4
Wang Huijun 《大气科学进展》2000,17(1):31-47
1.IntroductionThelargestinterannualvariabilityassociatedwiththeENSOcycleexistsinmonsoonregionsliketheAfricanmonsoon,Australianmonsoon,Pan--AmericanmonsoonandAsianmonsoon(RopelewskiandHalpert,1987;WebsterandYang,1992;JuandSlingo,1995).OnebasicquestionishowtorepresenttheAsianmonsoonanditsvariability.WebsterandYang(1992)foundareasonableindexbyaveragingthezonalwindshearbetween850hpaand200hpaovertheSouthAsianregion(40--110E,0--20N)todescribetheSouthAsianmonsooncirculationanditsvariability.… 相似文献
16.
Decadal/interdecadal climate variability is an important research focus of the CLIVAR Program and has been paid more attention. Over recent years, a lot of studies in relation to interdecadal climate variations have been also completed by Chinese scientists. This paper presents an overview of some advances in the study of decadal/interdecadal variations of the ocean temperature and its climate impacts, which includes interdecadal climate variability in China, the interdecadal modes of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Pacific, and in particular, the impacts of interdecadal SST variations on the Asian monsoon rainfall. As summarized in this paper, some results have been achieved by using climate diagnostic studies of historical climatic datasets. Two fundamental interdecadal SST variability modes (7– 10-years mode and 25–35-years mode) have been identified over the North Pacific associated with different anomalous patterns of atmospheric circulation. The southern Indian Ocean dipole (SIOD) shows a major feature of interdecadal variation, with a positive (negative) phase favoring a weakened (enhanced) Asian summer monsoon in the following summer. It is also found that the China monsoon rainfall exhibits interdecadal variations with more wet (dry) monsoon years in the Yangtze River (South China and North China) before 1976, but vice versa after 1976. The weakened relationship between the Indian summer rainfall and ENSO is a feature of interdecadal variations, suggesting an important role of the interdecadal variation of the SIOD in the climate over the south Asia and southeast Asia. In addition, evidence indicates that the climate shift in the 1960s may be related to the anomalies of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and North Pacific Oscillation (NPO). Overall, the present research has improved our understanding of the decadal/interdecadal variations of SST and their impacts on the Asian monsoon rainfall. However, the research also highlights a number of problems for future research, in particular the mechanisms responsible for the monsoon long-term predictability, which is a great challenge in climate research. 相似文献
17.
Recent studies have furnished evidence for interdecadal variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The importance of this phenomenon in causing persistent anomalies over different regions of the globe has drawn considerable attention in view of its relevance in climate assessment. Here, we examine multi-source climate records in order to identify possible signatures of this longer time scale variability on the Indian summer monsoon. The findings indicate a coherent inverse relationship between the inter-decadal fluctuations of Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) and the Indian monsoon rainfall during the last century. A warm (cold) phase of the Pacific interdecadal variability is characterized by a decrease (increase) in the monsoon rainfall and a corresponding increase (decrease) in the surface air temperature over the Indian subcontinent. This interdecadal relationship can also be confirmed from the teleconnection patterns evident from long-period sea level pressure (SLP) dataset. The SLP anomalies over South and Southeast Asia and the equatorial west Pacific are dynamically consistent in showing an out-of-phase pattern with the SLP anomalies over the tropical central-eastern Pacific. The remote influence of the Pacific interdecadal variability on the monsoon is shown to be associated with prominent signals in the tropical and southern Indian Ocean indicative of coherent inter-basin variability on decadal time scales. If indeed, the atmosphere–ocean coupling associated with the Pacific interdecadal variability is independent from that of the interannual El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), then the climate response should depend on the evolutionary characteristics of both the time scales. It is seen from our analysis that the Indian monsoon is more vulnerable to drought situations, when El Niño events occur during warm phases of the Pacific interdecadal variability. Conversely, wet monsoons are more likely to prevail, when La Niña events coincide during cold phases of the Pacific interdecadal variability. 相似文献
18.
汛期内我国中东部地区的雨季是东亚夏季风推进过程中的重要产物,主要包括华南前汛期、梅雨、华北雨季和华西秋雨等,各地雨季决定了我国中东部地区汛期的旱涝布局和旱涝演变,是我国汛期预测和服务的重点。该文回顾了4个雨季特征及影响因子方面的研究进展,在此基础上梳理物理概念预测模型。研究显示:海温异常是影响各区域雨季的重要先兆信号,但不同雨季的年际和年代际变化特征不同,海温作为外强迫信号的影响程度和时空形式也有差异。利用热带太平洋东西海温差指标能更好地解释华南前汛期降水的年际变化。而与梅雨的年际变化分量相关联的海温关键区主要分布于热带,与年代际或多年代际变化分量相联系的海温关键区则来自中高纬度。华北雨季降水的强弱不仅与ENSO循环的位相有关,更多受到ENSO演变速率的影响。而影响华西秋雨的海温关键区随着年代际背景的变化发生了改变,需要重新诊断和建模。 相似文献
19.
Wen CHEN Lin WANG Juan FENG Zhiping WEN Tiaojiao MA Xiuqun YANG Chenghai WANG 《大气科学进展》2019,36(9):887-901
Located in a monsoon domain,East Asia suffers devastating natural hazards induced by anomalous monsoon behaviors.East Asian monsoon(EAM)research has traditionally been a high priority for the Chinese climate community and is particularly challenging in a changing climate where the global mean temperature has been rising.Recent advances in studies of the variabilities and mechanisms of the EAM are reviewed in this paper,focusing on the interannual to interdecadal time scales.Some new results have been achieved in understanding the behaviors of the EAM,such as the evolution of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM),including both its onset and withdrawal over the South China Sea,the changes in the northern boundary activity of the EASM,or the transitional climate zone in East Asia,and the cycle of the EASM and the East Asian winter monsoon and their linkages.In addition,understanding of the mechanism of the EAM variability has improved in several aspects,including the impacts of different types of ENSO on the EAM,the impacts from the Indian Ocean and Atlantic Ocean,and the roles of mid-to high-latitude processes.Finally,some scientific issues regarding our understanding of the EAM are proposed for future investigation. 相似文献