Simulations of strong ground motion in SW Iberia for the 1969 February 28 (Ms= 8.0) and the 1755 November 1 (M∼ 8.5) earthquakes – II. Strong ground motion simulations

This is the second paper of a series of two concerning strong ground motion in SW Iberia due to earthquakes originating from the adjacent Atlantic area. The aim of this paper is to use the velocity model that was proposed and validated in the companion paper for seismic intensity modelling of the 1969 ( M _s= 8.0) and 1755 ( M = 8.5–8.7) earthquakes.
First, we propose a regression to convert simulated values of Peak Ground Velocity (PGV) into Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) in SW Iberia, and using this regression, we build synthetic isoseismal maps for a large ( M _s= 8.0) earthquake that occurred in 1969. Based on information on the seismic source provided by various authors, we show that the velocity model effectively reproduces macroseismic observations in the whole region. We also confirm that seismic intensity distribution is very sensitive to a small number of source parameters: rupture directivity, fault strike and fault dimensions. Then, we extrapolate the method to the case of the great ( M = 8.5–8.7) 1755 earthquake, for a series of hypotheses recently proposed by three authors about the location of the epicentral region. The model involving a subduction-related rupture in the Gulf of Cádiz results in excessive ground motion in northern Morocco, suggesting that the source of the 1755 earthquake should be located further west. A rupture along the western coast of Portugal, compatible with an activation of the passive western Iberian margin, would imply a relatively low average slip, which, alone, would could not account for the large tsunami observed in the whole northern Atlantic ocean. A seismic source located below the Gorringe Bank seems the most likely since it is more efficient in reproducing the distribution of high intensities in SW Iberia due to the 1755 earthquake.     

New approach in the kinematic k−2 source model for generating physical slip velocity functions

In an attempt to improve the ground motion modelling, the characteristics of the slip velocity functions (SVF) generated using the kinematic k ⁻² source are investigated and compared to the dynamic solutions proposed in the literature. Several numerical simulations were performed to test the influence of the model parameters on the SVF modelling. Overall, the shapes of SVF are very complex and exhibit a large variability in time and space. However, we found out that the mean SVF is a simple boxcar with duration equal to the largest rise time value. In the areas of weak slip, the SVFs are characterized by the existence of negative values, whereas in large slip areas, the SVF is more impulsive. Overall, on the examples investigated, the SVFs modelled with this k ⁻² source model are different from a typical Kostrov's solution. The critical analysis of the kinematic k ⁻² source led us to identify the Fourier decomposition of the slip to be responsible for these difficulties, and to propose a new recombination scheme. It consists of adding a positive correction to the Fourier slip components. The slip is described as the sum of positive contributions at various scales. The SVFs modelled using this new scheme are greatly improved. Moreover, through several parametrical analyses performed to qualify this new approach, we show that the SVF are corrected while preserving the essential quality of the k ⁻² modelling, that is, the ω² spectral shape and C _d apparent directivity of the synthetic accelerograms. Strong ground motion modelling in the near-fault region was made and numerical ground motion parameters were compared to the empirical relationships. We show that predicted peak ground motion is consistent with near-source attenuation laws.     

Modelling of ground motion in the Higashinada (Kobe) area for an aftershock of the 1995 January 17 Hyogo-ken Nanbu, Japan, earthquake

We model the ground motion from an aftershock of the 1995 January 17 Hyogo-ken Nanbu (Kobe) earthquake to investigate basin edge effects on wave propagation in Higashinada ward, downtown Kobe. Point-source finite-difference seismograms calculated using a double-couple solution and a 2-D basin structure are compared with the ground-motion velocity seismograms recorded in a small station array deployed at sites within and outside the heavily damage zone in Higashinada ward. The comparison suggests that in the frequency range 0.1-2 Hz that was analysed, the observed spatial amplitude variation of the aftershock ground motion is attributable mainly to the basin edge effects. We found that the basin edge effect, caused by the superposition of the direct S wave and the basin-edge-diffracted waves, amplified the ground motion in a narrow zone that is offset by about 0.7 km from the basin edge.     

Simulations of strong ground motion for earthquakes in the Mexicali–Imperial Valley region

Summary. In this paper computer modelling is used to test simple approximations for simulating strong ground motions for moderate and large earthquakes in the Mexicali–Imperial Valley region. Initially, we represent an earthquake rupture process as a series of many independent small earthquakes distributed in a somewhat random manner in both space and time along the rupture surface. By summing real seismograms for small earthquakes (used as empirical Green's functions), strong ground motions at specific sites near a fault are calculated. Alternatively, theoretical Green's functions that include frequencies up to 20 Hz are used in essentially similar simulations. The model uses random numbers to emulate some of the non-deterministic irregularities associated with real earthquakes, due either to complexities in the rupture process itself and/or strong variations in the material properties of the medium. Simulations of the 1980 June 9 Victoria, Baja California earthquake ( M _L= 6.1) approximately agree with the duration of shaking, the maximum ground acceleration, and the frequency content of strong ground motion records obtained at distances of up to 35 km for this moderate earthquake. In the initial stages of modelling we do not introduce any scaling of spectral shape with magnitude, in order to see at what stage the data require it. Surprisingly, such scaling is not critical in going from M = 4–5 events to the M = 6.1 Victoria earthquake. However, it is clearly required by the El Centro accelerogram for the Imperial Valley 1940 earthquake, which had a much higher moment ( Ms ∼ 7). We derive the spectral modification function for this event. The resulting model for this magnitude ∼ 7 earthquake is then used to predict the ground motions at short distances from the fault. Predicted peak horizontal accelerations for the M ∼ 7 event are about 25–50 per cent higher than those observed for the M = 6.1 Victoria event.     

Anatomy of a small intraplate earthquake: a dissection of its rupture characteristics using regional data

The magnitude m _bLg 5.0 Mont-Laurier earthquake of 1990 October 19, in Quebec, Canada, was one of the largest to have occurred in eastern North America during the past decade. High-frequency ground motions recorded on regional network instruments exceeded values anticipated for an event of its size by a factor of 3. A commonly favoured explanation for the discrepancy is that the source was a rare 'high-stress' event. In this paper, detailed fault-slip models are derived to fit waveform and spectral characteristics of the regional data. The results establish that the effective rupture stress was normal (about 100 bars), that the fault rupture developed asymmetrically, and that the average slip time for points inside the rupture area (approx. 0.1 s) was significantly less than that associated with the standard Brune (1970) source spectral model. The rupture area developed in at least four distinct episodes, each extending the previously ruptured area. Taken together with similar results for the m _bLg 6.5 Saguenay earthquake of 1988 November, the results indicate that a widely used assumption in hazard analyses, that earthquake spectra are adequately represented by the standard Brune spectral model, is unreliable for the interpretation and prediction of strong ground motion.     

Source investigation of a small event using empirical Green's functions and simulated annealing

We propose a two-step inversion of three-component seismograms that (1) recovers the far-field source time function at each station and (2) estimates the distribution of co-seismic slip on the fault plane for small earthquakes (magnitude 3 to 4). The empirical Green's function (EGF) method consists of finding a small earthquake located near the one we wish to study and then performing a deconvolution to remove the path, site, and instrumental effects from the main-event signal.
The deconvolution between the two earthquakes is an unstable procedure: we have therefore developed a simulated annealing technique to recover a stable and positive source time function (STF) in the time domain at each station with an estimation of uncertainties. Given a good azimuthal coverage, we can obtain information on the directivity effect as well as on the rupture process. We propose an inversion method by simulated annealing using the STF to recover the distribution of slip on the fault plane with a constant rupture-velocity model. This method permits estimation of physical quantities on the fault plane, as well as possible identification of the real fault plane.
We apply this two-step procedure for an event of magnitude 3 recorded in the Gulf of Corinth in August 1991. A nearby event of magnitude 2 provides us with empirical Green's functions for each station. We estimate an active fault area of 0.02 to 0.15 km² and deduce a stress-drop value of 1 to 30 bar and an average slip of 0.1 to 1.6 cm. The selected fault of the main event is in good agreement with the existence of a detachment surface inferred from the tectonics of this half-graben.     

Amplification of ground motion and waveform complexity in fault zones: examples from the San Andreas and Calaveras Faults

Summary. P -wave seismograms at ranges less than 10 km are synthesized by asymptotic ray theory and by summation of Gaussian beams for point sources located in a low-velocity wedge surrounding a fault. The computations are performed using models of the wedge inferred from the analysis of reflection and refraction experiments across the San Andreas and Hayward-Calaveras faults. Calculations in these models show that the 10–20Hz vertical displacements of earthquakes located at 3–10km depth are amplified by up to an order of magnitude in a 1–2km wide region centred on the fault trace compared to displacements predicted by laterally homogeneous models of the crust. This amplification is not cancelled by high attentuation in the fault zone and compensates for the reduction in amplitudes directly above the source predicted from the radiation pattern of a strike-slip earthquake. Depending on the source depth of the earthquake and the structure and velocity contrast of the wedge, multiple triplications in the travel-time curve of direct P - and S -waves will occur at stations in the fault zone. A wedge model successfully predicts the triplications observed in the P waveforms of aftershocks of the Coyote Lake earthquake recorded in the fault zone, showing that body waves from microearthquakes can be used to determine the three-dimensional velocity structure of the fault zone. The amplification, waveform complexity, and distortion of ray paths introduced by the low- velocity wedge suggest that its effects should be included in the interpretation of strong ground motions and travel times observed in the fault zone. For realistic models of the wedge, asymptotically approximate methods of calculating the body waveforms are strictly valid for frequencies greater than 20Hz. Numerical methods may be necessary to calculate accurately the wavefield at lower frequencies.     

Dynamic stress field of a kinematic earthquake source model with k-squared slip distribution

Source models such as the k -squared stochastic source model with k -dependent rise time are able to reproduce source complexity commonly observed in earthquake slip inversions. An analysis of the dynamic stress field associated with the slip history prescribed in these kinematic models can indicate possible inconsistencies with physics of faulting. The static stress drop, the strength excess, the breakdown stress drop and critical slip weakening distance D _c distributions are determined in this study for the kinematic k -squared source model with k -dependent rise time. Several studied k -squared models are found to be consistent with the slip weakening friction law along a substantial part of the fault. A new quantity, the stress delay, is introduced to map areas where the yielding criterion of the slip weakening friction is violated. Hisada's slip velocity function is found to be more consistent with the source dynamics than Boxcar, Brune's and Dirac's slip velocity functions. Constant rupture velocities close to the Rayleigh velocity are inconsistent with the k -squared model, because they break the yielding criterion of the slip weakening friction law. The bimodal character of D _c / D _tot frequency–magnitude distribution was found. D _c approaches the final slip D _tot near the edge of both the fault and asperity. We emphasize that both filtering and smoothing routinely applied in slip inversions may have a strong effect on the space–time pattern of the inferred stress field, leading potentially to an oversimplified view of earthquake source dynamics.     

What can be learned from rotational motions excited by earthquakes?

One answer to the question posed in the title is that we will have more accurate data for arrival times of SH waves, because the rotational component around the vertical axis is sensitive to SH waves although not to P-SV waves. Importantly, there is another answer related to seismic sources, which will be discussed in this paper.
Generally, not only dislocations commonly used in earthquake models but also other kind of defects could contribute to producing seismic waves. In particular, rotational strains at earthquake sources directly generate rotational components in seismic waves. Employing the geometrical theory of defects, we obtain a general expression for the rotational motion of seismic waves as a function of the parameters of source defects.
Using this expression, together with one for translational motion, we can estimate the rotational strain tensor and the spatial variation of slip velocity in the source area of earthquakes. These quantities will be large at the edges of a fault plane due to spatially rapid changes of slip on the fault and/or a formation of tensile fractures.     

Determination of earthquake early warning parameters, τc and Pd, for southern California

We explore a practical approach to earthquake early warning in southern California by determining a ground-motion period parameter  τ _c   and a high-pass filtered displacement amplitude parameter Pd from the initial 3 s of the P waveforms recorded at the Southern California Seismic Network stations for earthquakes with M > 4.0. At a given site, we estimate the magnitude of an event from  τ _c   and the peak ground-motion velocity ( PGV ) from Pd . The incoming three-component signals are recursively converted to ground acceleration, velocity and displacement. The displacements are recursively filtered with a one-way Butterworth high-pass filter with a cut-off frequency of 0.075 Hz, and a P -wave trigger is constantly monitored. When a trigger occurs,  τ _c   and Pd are computed. We found the relationship between  τ _c   and magnitude ( M ) for southern California, and between Pd and PGV for both southern California and Taiwan. These two relationships can be used to detect the occurrence of a major earthquake and provide onsite warning in the area around the station where onset of strong ground motion is expected within seconds after the arrival of the P wave. When the station density is high, the methods can be applied to multistation data to increase the robustness of onsite early warning and to add the regional warning approach. In an ideal situation, such warnings would be available within 10 s of the origin time of a large earthquake whose subsequent ground motion may last for tens of seconds.     

Spatial variability and non-linearity of strong ground motion near a fault

We present observations of ground accelerations recorded at a small array close to the fault during the Düzce earthquake and its early aftershocks. The records show the strong spatial variability of ground acceleration over distances of only a few hundred metres. During the main shock, the peak horizontal acceleration values ranged from 0.3 to about 1.0 g at stations distant of 1.5 km only. We attribute this spatial variability to a fault zone site effect as peak ground acceleration steadily increases as the distance to the fault trace decreases. The spectral ratio between the ground motion recorded near the fault and the one outside the fault zone shows a shift of the spectral peak to lower frequencies with increasing peak accelerations. Such an observation suggests a non-linear behaviour of the fault zone due to the strong ground shaking. As much as a 45 per cent reduction in the shear wave velocity is necessary for the observed shifts. The opening of pre-existing cracks throughout the fault zone is the proposed mechanism to account for the observed shear wave reductions. The observation that elastic fault zone properties are soon recovered following episodes of large strains shows that cracks and fissures close rapidly after the strong shaking is over.     

On reduction of long-period horizontal seismic noise using local barometric pressure

Tilt from atmospheric loading has long been known to be the major source of long-period horizontal seismic noise. We try to quantify these effects for seismic data from the Black Forest Observatory (BFO), which is known to be a very quiet station. Experimental transfer functions between local barometric pressure and horizontal seismic noise are estimated for two long time-series by standard methods. Two simple analytical physical models are developed: the local deformation model (LDM) and the acoustic-gravity wave model (TWM). Subsequently these models, with only two free parameters are fit using least squares to the observed seismic noise for time-series of widely differing lengths. The results are variable, sometimes rather dramatic variance reductions are obtained and sometimes the reduction is hardly significant. The method produces the best results when barometrically induced noise is high. The resulting admittances for the LDM are compared to finite element calculations. Since the methods are simple and can result in conspicuous reductions in noise we provide one more reason for installing barometers at even the best broad-band seismic stations.     

On transient sliding motion

Summary. Two kinds of transient sliding motion under a case of idealized dry friction are studied. One concerns uni-directional slip at constant propagation velocity along a strip of constant length in the propagation direction. The other regards extensional slip along a strip expanding symmetrically with constant velocity. The former kind involves one leading and one trailing edge, whereas the latter involves two leading edges. At a leading edge there must be a region of tearing, where sliding is initiated, and at a trailing edge a region of healing, where sliding ceases. The finiteness of these regions follows from the requirement of bounded strains. In the linearized treatment chosen, the edge processes are described by a modulus of tearing and a modulus of healing, both being characteristics of the material. Relations between the applied remote stress, the extension of the sliding region, the amount of slip, the slip propagation velocity and the rate of energy dissipation are given.     

A global study of S-to-P and P-to-S conversions from the upper mantle transition zone

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Long-period data of the Global Digital Seismograph Network (GDSN) recorded over the three-year period from 1984 to 1986 were studied for the occurrence of S-P and P-S conversions from the upper mantle transition zone that appear as precursors to teleseismic S arrivals. Conversions of this type were identified on a large number of single-station records. Simple stacking of many records enhanced the appearance of converted phases and demonstrated that no major lateral variations in the nature of the transition zone exist between various tectonic regions. S-P and P-S conversions from the 400 km discontinuity were best observed at distances between 70 and 85 while conversions from the 670 km discontinuity showed up best at distances beyond 87. The analysis of published source mechanisms and comparison with synthetic seismograms suggests that the appearance of converted phases is primarily governed by the earthquake radiation pattern. Phases that have undergone S-P conversions beneath the receiver are best observed from dip-slip events that radiate strong SV - and weak P -waves towards the station. P-S conversions beneath the source area, on the other hand, are frequently observed from events that radiate strong P and little SV energy towards the station, and also from some strike-slip events. Comparison of observed with synthetic seismograms suggests that the PREM model of Dziewonski & Anderson (1981) explains most of the observations. Observed S-P and P-S conversions from the 670 km discontinuity, however, often have larger amplitudes than in the synthetics. Constructive interference of converted waves with the P -wave coda, source radiation effects and a velocity contrast across the 670 km discontinuity which is higher than in PREM may all contribute to the discrepancy.     

Geodetic inversion for space–time distribution of fault slip with time-varying smoothing regularization

We have developed a new geodetic inversion method for space–time distribution of fault slip velocity with time-varying smoothing regularization in order to reconstruct accurate time histories of aseismic fault slip transients. We introduce a temporal smoothing regularization on slip and slip velocity through a Bayesian state space approach in which the strength of regularization (temporal smoothness of slip velocity) is controlled by a hyperparameter. The time-varying smoothing regularization is realized by treating the hyperparameter as a time-dependent stochastic variable and adopting a hierarchical Bayesian state space model, in which a prior distribution on the hyperparameter is introduced in addition to a conventional Bayesian state space model. We have tested this inversion method on two synthetic data sets generated by simulated aseismic slip transients. Results show that our method reproduces well both rapid changes of slip velocity and steady-state velocity without significant oversmoothing and undersmoothing, which has been hard to overcome by the conventional Bayesian approach with time-independent smoothing regularization. Application of this method to transient deformation in 2002 caused by a silent earthquake off the Boso peninsula, Japan, also shows similar advantages of this method over the conventional approach.     

Source tomography by simulated annealing using broad-band surface waves and geodetic data: application to the Mw= 8.1 Chile 1995 event

We invert surface-wave and geodetic data for the spatio-temporal complexity of slip during the M _w =8.1 Chile 1995 event by simulated annealing. This quasi-global inversion method allows for a wide exploration of model space, and retains the non-linearity of the source tomography problem. Complex source spectra are obtained from 5 to 45 mHz from first- and second-orbit fundamental-mode Rayleigh waves using an empirical Green's function cross-correlation technique. Coseismic displacement vectors were measured at 10 GPS sites near Antofagasta. They are part of a French-Chilean experiment which monitors the Northern Chile seismic gap. The spectra, together with the geodetic data, are inverted for the moment distribution on a 2-D dipping fault, under the physical constraints of slip positivity and causality. Marginal a posteriori distributions of the model parameters are obtained from several independently inverted solutions. In general, features of the slip model are well resolved. Data are well fitted by a purely unilateral southward rupture with a nearly uniform velocity around 2.5–3.0 km s⁻¹, and a total duration of 65 s. Several regions of moment release were imaged, one near the hypocentre, a major one 80 km south of it and a minor one 160 km south of it. The major patch of moment release seemed to have propagated to relatively shallow depths near the trench, 100 km SSW of the epicentre. The region of major slip is located updip of the 1987, M _w =7.5 earthquake, suggesting a causal relationship. Most of the slip occurred updip of the hypocentre (36 km), but the entire coupled plate interface (20–40 km) ruptured during the Chile 1995 event.     

Moment tensor inversion of complex earthquakes

Summary. Moment tensor inversion methods can be applied with success in the determination of source properties of simple earthquakes. However, these methods utilize the assumption of a point source, which is inadequate for modelling many complicated, shallow earthquakes. For complex earthquakes, an inversion using finite faulting models is desirable but the number of parameters involved requires that a good starting model be found or that independent constraints be placed on some of the parameters. A method is presented for low-pass filtering both the data and Green's functions, passing only signals with wavelengths greater than the dimension of the entire fault. The filter tends to smooth complications in the waveforms and allows application of the point source moment tensor inversion. This method is applied to body waves from the 1978 Thessaloniki, Greece, earthquake, the 1971 San Fernando earthquake and to a multiple-point source synthetic model of the San Fernando event. For the Thessaloniki event, although a multiple-source mechanism has been suggested, inversion results before and after filtering were essentially identical, indicating that a point source mechanism is sufficient in modelling the long-period, teleseismic body waves. In the case of the San Fernando earthquake, the point source Green's functions were incapable of simultaneously modelling the P - and SH -waves. Inversion of P -waves alone resulted in extreme parameter resolution problems, but allowed constraint in one axis of the moment tensor and suggested an overall source time function. Inversion of a synthetic San Fernando data set yielded similar results, but allowed an investigation of the shortcomings of the method under controlled circumstances. Although the results may require substantial interpretation, the method presented represents a simple first step in the analysis of complex earthquakes.     

High-frequency radiation from crack (stress drop) models of earthquake faulting

We present a theory for the radiation of high-frequency waves by earthquake faults. We model the fault as a planar region in which the stress drops to the kinematic friction during slip. This model is entirely equivalent to a shear crack. For two-dimensional fault models we show that the high frequencies originate from the stress and slip velocity concentrations in the vicinity of the fault's edges. These stress concentrations radiate when the crack expands with accelerated motion. The most efficient generation of high-frequency waves occurs when the rupture velocity changes abruptly. In this case, the displacement spectrum has an ω^-2 behaviour at high frequencies. The excitation is proportional to the intensity of the stress concentration near the crack tips and to the change in the focusing factor due to rupture velocity. We extend these two-dimensional results to more general three-dimensional fault models in the case when the rupture velocity changes simultaneously on the rupture front. Results are similar to those described for two-dimensional faults. We apply the theory to the case of a circular fault that grows at constant velocity and stops suddenly. The present theory is in excellent agreement with a numerical solution of the same problem.
Our results provide upper bounds to the high-frequency radiation from more realistic models in which rupture velocity does not change suddenly. The ω^-2 is the minimum possible decay at high frequencies for any crack model of the source.     

Further evidence for oceanic excitation of polar motion

While the role of the atmosphere in driving variations in polar motion is well established, the importance of the oceans has been recognized only recently. Further evidence for the role of the oceans in the excitation of polar motion is presented. To estimate the equatorial excitation functions, χ ₁ and χ ₂ , for the ocean, we use velocity and mass fields from a constant-density ocean model, driven by observed surface wind stresses and atmospheric pressure, for the period 1993–1995; comparison with similar functions derived from a more complex density-stratified ocean model indicates the effectiveness of the simple constant-density modelling approach. Corresponding atmospheric excitation functions are computed from NCEP/NCAR re-analyses. Results indicate significant improvements in the agreement with the observed polar motion excitation when the simulated oceanic effects are added to atmospheric excitation. Correlations between the polar motion and the geophysical signals at periods of 15–150 days increase from 0.53 to 0.80 and from 0.75 to 0.88 for χ ₁ and χ ₂ , respectively. The oceanic signals are particularly important for seasonal variations in χ ₁ (correlation increases from 0.28 to 0.85 when oceanic excitation is included). A positive impact of the oceans on more rapid polar motion is also observed, up to periods as short as 5 days. The sensitivity of the results to different forcing fields and different amounts of friction in the oceans is also discussed.     

A fault plane solution using theoretical P seismograms

We use the method of Hudson and Douglas, Hudson & Blarney to compute seismograms which simulate the codas of 10 short period P -wave seismograms from a shallow earthquake. The polarities and relative amplitudes of P and pP measured from seven of the observed seismograms are used to compute a fault plane solution with confidence limits, assuming that the source radiates as a double couple. This solution is in approximate agreement with that given for the same earthquake by Sykes & Sbar, who used only the onset polarities of short-period P waves. The small difference between the two solutions can be explained by interference between the true first motion of P and microseismic noise at two stations.
The results show that, for some shallow earthquakes, the relative amplitude method has the following advantages over the first motions method. First, a P/pP amplitude ratio (with appropriate confidence limits) can always be measured, even in seismograms which are so noisy that the first motion of P is uncertain. Second, the fault plane solutions obtained from relative amplitudes have known confidence limits. Finally, by using more information from each seismogram, the relative amplitude method requires considerably fewer seismograms than the first motions method.