The rise of solar Cycle number 22

The new solar cycle, denoted Cycle 22, has risen faster than of any of the previous 21 cycles, indicating that the cycle is likely to be of large amplitude. Moreover, the rapid rise suggests that the cycle could be arriving early, perhaps similar to the phase advance which occurred during Cycles 1–4. The rapid early rise of Cycle 22 also suggests that there might be a connection with the period of extraordinarily low geomagnetic activity centred on 1980. If this is the case, then the suppression of geomagnetic activity is the first sign of a new cycle, in this case approximately 7 years prior to the official start of the cycle. This idea is consistent with recent ideas on the solar cycle and has significant implications for geomagnetic disturbance forecasting.     

Electrostatic Wave Instability and Plasma Radiation from Coronal Loops

Polarization properties of solar and stellar radio emission require, in some cases, emission below the third or fourth coronal electron gyro level, < 3,_c; 4, _c. In the context of plasma radiation, the source parameters should be such that the intermediate magnetic field condition 1 < _p ² / _c ² < 3 is satisfied. Supposing this condition, we investigate the generation of electrostatic waves in a warm background plasma with a high-energy component of magnetically trapped electrons. We invoke the conversion of upper-hybrid waves and Bernstein waves into electromagnetic radiation as being responsible for intense radio emission from a coronal magnetic loop. Moreover, odd-half harmonic emissions in the solar radio spectrum as well as the o-mode polarization at the second harmonic of the plasma frequency are natural consequence of this proposed model.     

The dust grains in the coma of Comet West

The observed variation of reddening as function of the heliocentric distance and the spatial variation of reddening within the coma of Comet West in the visual wavelength range have been considered to infer the properties of the cometary dust grains. The relevant model incorporates the variation in the size distribution function as well as the composition of the spherical grains. The real part of the complex index of refraction (m = m – im) is chosen such thatm = 1.6. The imaginary part is required to vary from m = 0.2 to 0.05 over the wavelength range 0.4 to 0.7 m. This choice of refractive index corresponds to dirty silicate grains. As a by-product, the model also satisfies the observed polarization and albedo for the Comet West.     

The acceleration and propagation of solar cosmic rays as deduced from the relative abundance of protons to helium nuclei

Except for protons, the chemical composition of solar cosmic rays is very similar to the abundance of the elements at the photosphere of the Sun. If we consider the relative abundance ratio of protons to -particles (P/) at constant rigidity, this ratio is highly variable from one solar cosmic ray event to another. This ratio observed at the Earth, however, decreases monotonically with time from the onset of solar flares and, furthermore, is dependent on the heliocentric distance of the parent flares from the central meridian of the solar disk. P/'s which have been measured before the onset of SC geomagnetic storms change from 1.5 to 50 or more, being a function of the westward position of the source from the east limb of the Sun. These variations with respect to time and heliocentric distance suggest that the propagation of solar cosmic rays is strongly modulated in the interplanetary space. The major part of the -particles seem to propagate as if they are trapped within the magnetic clouds which produce SC geomagnetic and cosmic ray storms at the earth.The chemical composition and rigidity spectra of solar cosmic rays suggest that solar cosmic rays are mainly accelerated by the Fermi mechanism in solar flares. The observed variation of P/'s is produced mainly through the difference between the propagation characteristics of protons and -particles.NAS-NRC Associate with NASA.     

On the level of skill in predicting maximum sunspot number: A comparative study of single variate and bivariate precursor techniques

Precursor prediction techniques have generally performed well in predicting the maximum amplitude of sunspot cycles, based on cycles 10–21. Single variate methods based on minimum sunspot amplitude have reliably predicted the size of the sunspot cycle 9 out of 12 times, where a reliable prediction is defined as one having an observed maximum amplitude within the prediction interval (determined from the average error). On the other hand, single variate methods based on the size of the geomagnetic minimum have reliably predicted the size of the sunspot cycle 8 of 10 times (geomagnetic data are only available since about cycle 12). Bivariate prediction methods have, thus far, performed flawlessly, giving reliable predictions 10 out of 10 times (bivariate methods are based on sunspot and geomagnetic data). For cycle 22, single variate methods (based on geomagnetic data) suggest a maximum amplitude of about 170 ± 25, while bivariate methods suggest a maximum amplitude of about 140 ± 15; thus, both techniques suggest that cycle 22 will be of smaller maximum amplitude than that observed during cycle 19, and possibly even smaller than that observed for cycle 21. Compared to the mean cycle, cycle 22 is presently behaving as if it is a + 2.6 cycle (maximum amplitude about 225). It appears then that either cycle 22 will be the first cycle not to be reliably predicted by the combined precursor techniques (i.e., cycle 22 is an anomaly, a statistical outlier) or the deviation of cycle 22 relative to the mean cycle will substantially decrease over the next 18 months. Because cycle 22 is a large amplitude cycle, maximum smoothed sunspot number is expected to occur early in 1990 (between December 1989 and May 1990).     

The solar wind cycle,the sunspot cycle,and the corona

Recent theories of the solar cycle and of coronal heating strongly suggest that solar cycle variations of different quantities (i.e. sunspots, coronal green line, etc.) ought not to be expected to be in phase with one another. In agreement with this notion we note that the shape of the corona typical of a maximum eclipse occurs 1.5yr before sunspot maximum, compared with 2 yr as might be expected from Leighton's standard model. Further, we argue that the phase of the solar wind cycle can be determined from geomagnetic observations. Using this phase, a solar cycle variation of 100 km s^–1 in the solar wind velocity and 1 in the magnetic field intensity becomes apparent. In general, the solar wind cycle lags the coronal-eclipse-form cycle by 3 yr, compared with the 2 yr that might be expected from model calculations.     

The radio radius of the Sun at millimeter and centimeter wavelengths

The radio radius of the Sun is determined from an analysis of the radio contact times of the 7 March, 1970 and 10 July, 1972 solar eclipses from = 3 mm to = 31 cm. Agreement with other eclipse measurements is good. A best fit curve through the several points gives the radio radius to within approximately ±0.01 of the photosheric radius below -5 cm.     

A study of the modulating effect of solar flares on the cosmic ray intensity using time series analysis

The cosmic ray 11-year variation for solar cycle 20 is attributed to the modulating effect of solar flare-induced shocks propagating through the interplanetary medium to the boundary of the heliosphere. The relative influence of these disturbances upon the cosmic ray intensity as a function of their travel time from the Sun is determined by a deconvolution of a linear system with the number of solar flares (importance 1) and the observed cosmic ray intensity as the input and output respectively of this system. The impulse response function so determined indicates that the solar flare - induced disturbances significantly modulate cosmic rays out to a distance of 70–90 AU where the modulating effect of the disturbances abruptly ends. This is interpreted as the boundary of the heliosphere.     

Relationships of quasi-stationary solar wind flows with their sources on the Sun

In this paper, by considering an example of four Carrington rotations (1671,1672,1681, and 1682), it is shown that there generally exists an exhaustive correspondence between quasi-stationary flows of fast and slow solar wind (SW), on the one hand, and their sources on the Sun: coronal holes (CHs) and the heliospheric current sheet (HCS), on the other. It is also shown that by knowing characteristics such as the coordinate of the center of gravity of CHs on the Sun, their areas S and the positions of the neutral line (NL) and of the HCS without the NL on the Sun, it becomes possible to calculate the time of appearance and the amplitude of three points on the SW velocity profile at the Earth's orbit, namely time, t _F ,and velocity amplitude, V _F ,corresponding to the mean point of the forward front of the SW flow velocity profile, the value of V = V _m in the central part of the flow, and angular width ⁺ of the flow at level V = V _F .Calculated values agree with those observed.     

Using geomagnetic indices to forecast the next sunspot maximum

The Babcock solar dynamo model and known interactions of the interplanetary magnetic field with the earth's magnetosphere are used to explain the relations found between geomagnetic indices at solar minimum and the sunspot number at the following solar maximum. We augment the work of Kane (1987) by updating his method of analysis, including recent smoothed aa and A_P indices. We predict a smoothed maximum sunspot number of 163±40 to peak in October 1990±9 months for solar cycle 22. This value is close to the Schatten and Sofia (1987) predicted value of 170±25, using more direct solar indicators.Now at Dept. of Astronomy, Univ. of Washington     

Mass motions associated with solar flares

Mass motions are a principal means by which components of solar flares can be distinguished. Typical patterns of mass motions in H are described for chromospheric flare ribbons, remote chromospheric flare patches, flare loops, flaring arches, surges, erupting filaments and some expanding coronal features. Interrelationships between these phenomena are discussed and illustrations of each are presented.     

A solar cycle timing predictor - the latitude of active regions

The Schatten and Sofia (1987) dynamo theory prediction for the amplitude of smoothed annual sunspot number in the present solar cycle, No. 22, of 170 ± 25 was predicted to peak in 1990 ± 1 year. This peak was earlier and larger than most other estimates made in early 1987. New observational evidence shows sunspot values rising very rapidly, generally supporting the exceptionally large cycle predicted, however, solar cycle 22 appears even more exceptional than expected, in that the early cycle rise has exceeded all previous cycle increases. We use a Spörer butterfly method to examine solar cycle 22. We show from the latitude of active regions, that the cycle can now be expected to peak near November 1989 ±8 months, basically near the latter half of 1989.This paper was presented at the third meeting of the Solar Cycle Workshop, held in Sydney, Australia, January 9–13, 1989.     

Large-scale structure of the interplanetary medium

We propose that the coronal source longitude and latitude of solar wind plasma can be estimated within 10°. Previous writers have argued that the solar wind in the ecliptic should originate near the equator and that a quasi-radial hypervelocity (QRH) approximation (constant radial flow) is valid beyond the magnetohydrodynamic critical points. We demonstrate that an extension of the QRH approximation (as if the solar wind flowed radially with constant velocity from the center of the Sun) yields a proper estimate of the high coronal source location at the release zone where the solar wind makes its transition to radial interplanetary flow. This extrapolated QRH (or EQRH) approximation succeeds because the two main corrections to this source estimate, coronal corotation and interplanetary acceleration, tend to cancel (the former correcting the source location eastward, the latter westward). Although this ideal spiral approximation was first suggested by Snyder and Neugebauer (1966), only recently has it been demonstrated that it relates a wide range of interplanetary plasma, magnetic field and energetic particle data to observed coronal magnetic structure. We estimate quantitatively the error in the EQRH approximation by comparison with steady-state streamlines predicted by azimuthally independent and dependent theoretical solutions to the steady-state plasma equations. We find the error in both cases 10° in longitude and therefore suggest that the EQRH approximation offers the means to relate observed solar initial conditions in the release zone directly to interplanetary measurements. If, in addition, the EQRH approximation also leads to agreement with low coronal structure, then there should be a straightforward correspondence to otherwise unobservable high coronal structure.     

On ‘bimodality of the solar cycle’ and the duration of cycle 21

The period-growth dichotomy of the solar cycle predicts that cycle 21, the present solar cycle, will be of long duration (>133 mo), ending after July 1987. Bimodality of the solar cycle (i.e., cycles being distributed into two groups according to cycle length, based on a comparison to the mean cycle period) is clearly seen in a scatter diagram of descent versus ascent durations. Based on the well-observed cycles 8–20, a linear fit for long-period cycles (being a relatively strong inverse relationship that is significant at the 5% level and having a coefficient of determination r ² 0.66) suggests that cycle 21, having an ascent of 42 mo, will have a descent near 99 mo; thus, cycle duration of about 141 mo is expected. Like cycle 11, cycle 21 occurs on the downward envelope of the sunspot number curve, yet is associated with an upward first difference in amplitude. A comparison of individual cycle, smoothed sunspot number curves for cycles 21 and 11 reveals striking similarity, which suggests that if, indeed, cycle 21 is a long-period cycle, then it too may have an extended tail of sustained, low, smoothed sunspot number, with cycle 22 minimum occurring either in late 1987 or early 1988.     

Regularities of variation of the heliospheric current sheet orientation during the solar activity cycle

Evolution of spatial orientation of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) has been studied in detail using synoptic maps of the HCS configuration over the period 1971–1989. Analysis involves all phases of the sunspot cycle except for two years of maximum solar activity. The helmet-like coronal streamers are confirmed to be structural elements of the HCS. The r.m.s. deviation of a real HCS configuration from a plane does not exceed about 10° during most of the sunspot cycle length. Hence, minimum-type corona should be observed every time the HCS is oriented parallel to the line-of-sight, independent of the cycle phase. Such occasions have been observed apart from the sunspot minimum epochs at the solar eclipses of 31 August, 1932 and 11 July, 1991.Regularities of variation of the two following parameters of the HCS orientation have been revealed: obliquity to the solar equator plane (heel or tilt) and longitudinal orientation (yawing). Behaviour of the above parameters is repeated in different cycles. However, heeling and yawing occur probably not synchronous but rather independent of one another.     

Quiet Sun observations of the Ali autoionization lines λ1932 and λ1936

We present quiet Sun observations obtained during a rocket flight of the Al i autoionization lines 1932 and 1936 at solar pointings ranging from = 0.73 out to the visible limb. Absolute intensities are estimated to be accurate to approximately ±20%. These lines progressively weaken with decreasing but never go into emission before finally disappearing with the continuum just beyond the visible solar limb. The observations are compared with LTE line profiles computed through the quiet Sun atmosphere of Vernazza et al. (1976). We discuss several areas of disagreement between the synthetic and observed profiles.     

Solar Rotation And Cycle Length

A positive correlation is suggested between solar rotation rate and solar cycle length for cycles 12 to 20. This result seems to be opposite to recent observations in solar-type stars and the Sun and yields inverse correlations between cycle lengths and chromospheric activity, but it agrees with previous work with solar-type stars and the Sun suggesting a positive correlation between cycle length and rotation rate. Estimates of solar cycle length for the Maunder minimum suggest a length 17 yr.     

Prediction of the Amplitude of Sunspot Cycle 23

A few prediction methods have been developed using the precursor techniques and are found to be successful. On the basis of geomagnetic activity aa indices during the descending phase of the preceding cycle, we have established an expression which predicts the maximum annual mean sunspot number in cycle 23 to be 166.2. This indicates that cycle 23 would be a highly active and historic cycle. The average geomagnetic activity aa index during the ascending phase of cycle 23 would be about 24.9, comparable to 22.2 and 24.8 in cycles 21 and 22, respectively. This further indicates that during the ascending phase of cycle 23 energetic two-ribbon flares will be produced so as to give rise to strong proton events.     

Recurrence of solar activity: Evidence for active longitudes

The autocorrelation coefficients of the daily Wolf sunspot numbers over a period of 128 years reveal a number of interesting features of the variability of solar activity. In addition to establishing periodicities for the solar rotation, the solar activity cycle, and perhaps the Gleissberg Cycle, they suggest that active longitudes do exist, but with much greater strength and persistence in some solar cycles than in others. There is evidence for a variation in the solar rotation period, as measured by sunspot number, of as much as two days between different solar cycles.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

On stellar activity cycles

The relation between the average magnetic fieldB, the angular velocity , and the periodP of stellar activity cycles is studied. For the calculations we have used Leighton's (1969) model for the solar cycle with the additional assumption that the differential rotation and the cyclonic turbulence (Parker, 1955) (that is the sunspot tilt or the -effect) are both proportional to . We then find thatB is roughly proportional to and thatP decreases with increasing . The period of the solar cycle increases therefore with the age of the Sun.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.