The correlation of multi-angle thermal infrared data and the choice of optimal view angles

The relationship between multi-angle thermal in-frared radiance of non-isothermal mixed pixel and black bodys radiance of components can be expressed by the matrix formula[1] ,()()(),kkjbjLwLTllq= (1) here l represents wave length of electronic magnetic wave, kq means zenith angle of view direction, (,)LTlq means the measured radiance, ,()kjw is called the matrix of system抯effective emissivities, T means the temperature in K degree, ()bLTl means the radiance of black body described by plank…     

Probable satellite thermal infrared anomaly before the Zhangbei M s=6.2 earthquake on January 10, 1998

This paper used the thermal infrared data of the satellite NOAA-AAVHRR of the north part of North China (113°～119° E, 38°～42° N), and processed the remote sensing data through radiation adjustment, geometric adjustment and so on by the software ＂The Monitoring and Fast Process System of Earthquake Precursor Thermal Infrared Anomaly＂, inversed the earth surface temperature. Some disturbances effect had been excluded, and thermal infrared temperature anomaly had been extracted by the picture difference method. The Zhangbei MS=6.2 earthquake is used as the example in the paper, so that in the paper thermal infrared characteristics on time-space before earthquake and the relationship between the anomaly and the earthquake prediction have been summarized.Within more than ten days before the Zhangbei earthquake, the thermal infrared anomaly had emerged widely along Zhangjiakou-Bohai seismic belt, and the anomalous region seemed like a belt and it is also consistent with the tectonic background there; the anomaly expanded from the outside toward the earthquake focus, but the focus lay at the edge of the thermal infrared region. So it is possible to explore a new anomaly observation method for earthquake prediction by observing and studying the satellite thermal infrared anomaly before big earthquakes happen.     

An alternative direct method towards mean dynamic topography computations

An alternative “direct method” to “mean dynamic topography” (MDT) computations using satellite altimetry-derived “mean sea surface” (MSS) and “global geopotential model” (GGM), without direct application of the geoid, is devised. The developed approach, which is based on derivation of an equipotential surface of the gravity field of the Earth that fits to global MSS in least squares sense, is formulated via a constrained optimization problem. The validity of our method is numerically tested by computing a global MDT model based on DNSC08 MSS model and EGM2008 GGM as input data.     

Present-day crustal movement and tectonic deformation in China continent

Velocity field of China continent constrained by Global Positioning System (GPS) reveals both continuous and block-like styles of deformation. Continuous deformation commonly characterizes actively deforming mountain ranges such as the Tianshan Mountain, Qilian Mountain, and Tibet. The block-like movement often represents deformation in the tectonically stable regions such as Ordos, South China and Tarim blocks. GPS measurements indicate 5.1±2.5 mm/a left-lateral strike-slip rate along the Altun fault. Eastward convergence along the Longmenshan fault is less than 6.7 ± 3.0 mm/a. South China moves 11–14 mm/a eastward compared with the stable Eurasia. These low slip rates do not imply rapid eastward extrusion of China continent predicted by the model of “continental extrusion”. It appears that “crustal thickening” model more properly describes both continuous and block-like styles of deformation in China continent.     

Influence of variation of soil spatial heterogeneity on vegetation restoration

Ecological restoration as a new research field of applied ecology can be traced back to the 1950s, it mainly focuses on the studies of ecological restoration of mine fields, tropical forests, wetlands and indus-try-polluted ecosystems[1-4]. Following the raising of the conception of “restoration ecology”[5], the holding of a series of international conferences and the found-ing of the International Association for Restoration Ecology, the studies of ecological restoration has be-come a quit…     

A probable mechanism of the water level subsidence in wells as a precursor of an earthquake event

Case histories of water level subsidence in bore-holes as a precursor of earthquakes are given here. Based on the examples, a testable quantitative theory for causative mechanism of the precursor—“draining-injecting water model with variable discharge” is proposed (abbreviated to DIW model). Through analysing the constitution law of which the deformation changes in the porous, water-saturated media under the effect of exterior stress, as first step of all, the authors suggested first a simple “drainage-natural restoration model” (abbreviated to DNR model), calculated and gave a group of theoretical precursor curve by using DNR model, compared the theoretical precursor curves of DNR model with the observational curves, found out the differences of the two curves, studied the causative physical factors that caused the differences then, revised the DNR model, and finally, the theory on “draining-injecting water model with variable discharge” in the paper was obtained. The authors deduced general equation of the two dimensions “draining-injecting water linear source drawdown field” in the paper, suggested and developed the concept on “domain”. DIW model can also give a possible explanation for both regularity and complexity of this precursor. DIW theory can quantitatively divide the seismogenic process of the foci on the short-term and impending process into several phases, and by inversing the discharge functionq(τ) curve, the time values by which the phases are divided were obtained. They will be helpful to predicting the occurrence time of earthquake and judging the DD and IPE model of the seismogenesis. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 194–201, 1993.     

Evaluating the functionality and streamflow impacts of explicitly modelling forest–snow interactions and canopy gaps in a distributed hydrologic model

Many plot‐scale studies have shown that snow‐cover dynamics in forest gaps are distinctly different from those in open and continuously forested areas, and forest gaps have the potential to alter the magnitude and timing of snowmelt. However, the watershed‐level impacts of canopy gap treatment on streamflows are largely unknown. Here, we present the first research that explicitly assesses the impact of canopy gaps on seasonal streamflows and particularly late‐season low flows at the watershed scale. To explicitly model forest–snow interactions in canopy gaps, we made major enhancements to a widely used distributed hydrologic model, distributed hydrology soil vegetation model, with a canopy gap component that represents physical processes of snowpack evolution in the forest gap separately from the surrounding forest on the subgrid scale (within a grid typically 10–150 m). The model predicted snow water equivalent using the enhanced distributed hydrology soil vegetation model showed good agreement (R² > 0.9) with subhourly snow water equivalent measurements collected from open, forested, and canopy gap sites in Idaho, USA. Compared with the original model that does not account for interactions between gaps and surrounding forest, the enhanced model predicted notably later melt in small‐ to medium‐size canopy gaps (the ratio of gap radius (r) to canopy height (h) ≤ 1.2), and snow melt rates exhibited great sensitivity to changing gap size in medium‐size gaps (0.5 ≤ r/h ≤ 1.2). We demonstrated the watershed‐scale implications of canopy gaps on streamflow in the snow‐dominated Chiwawa watershed, WA, USA. With 24% of the watershed drainage area (about 446 km²) converted to gaps of 60 m diameter, the mean annual 7‐day low flow was increased by 19.4% (i.e., 0.37 m³/s), and the mean monthly 7‐day low flows were increased by 13.5% (i.e., 0.26 m³/s) to 40% (i.e., 1.76 m³/s) from late summer through fall. Lastly, in practical implementation of canopy gaps with the same total gap areas, a greater number of distributed small gaps can have greater potential for longer snow retention than a smaller number of large gaps.     

Local geoid determination based on airborne gravity data

A mathematical model used for determination of a local geoid model by combining airborne gravity disturbances and the Earth Gravitational Model 2008 (EGM08) is shortly reviewed. The precision of the estimated local geoid model of Taiwan is tested by its comparison with the “real” geoid at Global Satellite Navigation Systems (GNSS)/levelling points. The same comparison at GNSS/levelling points is done for the geoid evaluated only by using EGM08. Conclusions concerning a rate of improvement of the “global” geoid from EGM08 using the “local” geoid from airborne gravity data are presented.     

Ground-motion prediction equations for induced seismicity in the main anticline and main syncline,Upper Silesian Coal Basin,Poland

The purpose of the research was to determine parameters of ground-motion models for two areas characterized by considerable induced seismicity and different geology. Fifty-nine events collected from surface seismological stations of coal mine “Bielszowice” (at the Main Anticline, South Poland) and 144 events from coal mine “Ziemowit” (at the Main Syncline, South Poland) were used for computation. For both areas, simple ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) without site effects were derived, but the model was acceptable only for “Bielszowice” area. The GMPE was calculated once again for “Ziemowit”, but this time we took into consideration the amplification coefficient, which significantly improved the model solution. Finally, the theoretical value of amplification was calculated. Knowing that the amplification is associated with subsurface layers, we used three different models of overburden: (i) with Quaternary sediments only, (ii) with a complex of Quaternary-Tertiary sediments, and (iii) with a complex of Quaternary-Tertiary-Triassic sediments and Carboniferous as a basement. Usually, the amplification of vibrations appears in the Quaternary sediments. However, theoretical calculations of amplification were consistent with the results obtained from GMPE when a rigid Carboniferous substratum was applied.     

Fields of local stresses of different levels and second order fractures close to the off of a strike slip fault

In the work 2D and 3D fields of stresses of several scale levels close to the off of the main fault (vertical strike-slip fault) in conditions of compression are mathematically calculated and investigated. The solution is found for the elastic task for a 2D “horizontal” field; a 3D field of stresses is obtained by the imposition of a “vertical” unaxis compression. It is shown that the surroundings of the fault are subdivided into three (not two, as is usually considered) regions of types of predictable secondary fractures: “extension,” “strike-slip fault,” and “compression.” In regions close to the off of the main fault, three different microregions occur. The type of destruction in these microregions depends on the parameters of the outer load. Natural and model data of second order fractures that are compared with the calculated data are examined and generalized. The performed investigation is important for the determination of the genesis of secondary fractures, located close to the main fault. The calculated parageneses of secondary fractures may be used for the estimation of the stress tensor type of the regional field.     

Reliability of the automatic procedures for locating earthquakes in southwestern Alps and northern Apennines (Italy)

Reliable automatic procedure for locating earthquake in quasi-real time is strongly needed for seismic warning system, earthquake preparedness, and producing shaking maps. The reliability of an automatic location algorithm is influenced by several factors such as errors in picking seismic phases, network geometry, and velocity model uncertainties. The main purpose of this work is to investigate the performances of different automatic procedures to choose the most suitable one to be applied for the quasi-real-time earthquake locations in northwestern Italy. The reliability of two automatic-picking algorithms (one based on the Characteristic Function (CF) analysis, CF picker, and the other one based on the Akaike’s information criterion (AIC), AIC picker) and two location methods (“Hypoellipse” and “NonLinLoc” codes) is analysed by comparing the automatically determined hypocentral coordinates with reference ones. Reference locations are computed by the “Hypoellipse” code considering manually revised data and tested using quarry blasts. The comparison is made on a dataset composed by 575 seismic events for the period 2000–2007 as recorded by the Regional Seismic network of Northwestern Italy. For P phases, similar results, in terms of both amount of detected picks and magnitude of travel time differences with respect to manual picks, are obtained applying the AIC and the CF picker; on the contrary, for S phases, the AIC picker seems to provide a significant greater number of readings than the CF picker. Furthermore, the “NonLinLoc” software (applied to a 3D velocity model) is proved to be more reliable than the “Hypoellipse” code (applied to layered 1D velocity models), leading to more reliable automatic locations also when outliers (wrong picks) are present.     

Study on the pattern and mode of vertical crustal deformation during the seismogenic process of intraplate strong earthquakes

Ｓｔｕｄｙｏｎｔｈｅｐａｔｔｅｒｎａｎｄｍｏｄｅｏｆｖｅｒｔｉｃａｌｃｒｕｓｔａｌｄｅｆｏｒｍａｔｉｏｎｄｕｒｉｎｇｔｈｅｓｅｉｓｍｏｇｅｎｉｃｐｒｏｃｅｓｓｏｆｉｎｔｒａｐｌａｔｅｓｔｒｏｎｇｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｓ杨国华，桂昆长，巩曰沐，杨春花，韩...     

On the seismic regime network method

In this paper, based on the previous study of practical use of seismic regime windows and seismic regime belts, the problem of establishing a “seismic regime network” consisting of “windows” and “belts” is further posed and discussed according to the observed fact that many “windows” and “belts” make responses to one earthquake. For the convenience of usage, the “seismic regime network” is divided into two classes, the first class and the second one. The former can be used in tendency prediction for long-term seismic activity in a large area, the latter used in short-term prediction in a small area. In this paper, after briefly discussing the physical significance of “seismic regime network”, it is pointed out that this simple and easily used method can be used to observe and extract seismic precursory information from a large area before a great earthquake, thus it can provide a reliable basis for the analysis and judgement of seismic regime tendency in time and space. No doult, this method is of certain practical significance. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 161–169, 1991. The English version of this paper is improved by Prof. Shaoxie Xu.     

Foundation–structure systems over a rupturing normal fault: Part II. Analysis of the Kocaeli case histories

Motivated by the observed (successful and unsuccessful) performance of numerous structures on top of, or immediately next to a normal fault that ruptured during the Kocaeli 1999 earthquake, this paper: (i) develops a two-step finite element methodology to study the propagation of a fault rupture through soil and its interplay with the foundation–structure system, denoted hereafter “Fault Rupture–Soil– Foundation–Structure Interaction” (FR–SFSI), (ii) provides validation of the developed methodology through successful Class “A” predictions of centrifuge model tests, and (iii) applies the centrifuge-validated methodology to study one-by-one the Kocaeli case histories of the first paper (Part I). It is shown that the presence of a structure on top of an outcropping fault may have a significant influence on the rupture path: with heavy structures founded on continuous and rigid foundations, the fault rupture diverts substantially and may avoid rupturing underneath the structure. The latter undergoes rigid body rotation, with its foundation sometimes loosing contact with the bearing soil, but in most cases retaining its structural integrity. In stark contrast, buildings on isolated footings and, perhaps surprisingly, piles exert a smaller diversion of the rupture which is thus likely to outcrop between the footings or pile caps; the latter may thus undergo devastating differential displacements. It is shown that structures in the vicinity of faults can be designed to survive significant dislocations. The “secret” of successful performance lies on the continuity, stiffness, and rigidity of the foundation.     

Review of Microgravity Observations at Mt. Etna: A Powerful Tool to Monitor and Study Active Volcanoes

Microgravity observations at Mt. Etna have been routinely performed as both discrete (since 1986) and continuous (since 1998) measurements. In addition to describing the methodology for acquiring and reducing gravity data from Mt. Etna, this paper provides a collection of case studies aimed at demonstrating the potential of microgravity to investigate the plumbing system of an active volcano and detect forerunners to paroxysmal volcanic events. For discrete gravity measurements, results from 1994–1996 and 2001 are reported. During the first period, the observed gravity changes are interpreted within the framework of the Strombolian activity which occurred from the summit craters. Gravity changes observed during the first nine months of 2001 are directly related to subsurface mass redistributions which preceded, accompanied and followed the July-August 2001 flank eruption of Mt. Etna. Two continuous gravity records are discussed: a 16-month (October 1998 to February 2000) sequence and a 48-hour (26–28 October, 2002) sequence, both from a station within a few kilometers of the volcano's summit. The 16-month record may be the longest continuous gravity sequence ever acquired at a station very close to the summit zone of an active volcano. By cross analyzing it with contemporaneous discrete observations along a summit profile of stations, both the geometry of a buried source and its time evolution can be investigated. The shorter continuous sequence encompasses the onset of an eruption from a location only 1.5 km from the gravity station. This gravity record is useful for establishing constraints on the characteristics of the intrusive mechanism leading to the eruption. In particular, the observed gravity anomaly indicates that the magma intrusion occurred “passively” within a fracture system opened by external forces.     

Variation of snow water resources in northwestern China, 1951–1997

Two models are used to simulate the high-altitude permafrost distribution on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. The two models are the “altitude model”, a Gaussian distribution function used to describe the latitudinal zonation of permafrost based on the three-dimensional rules of high-altitude permafrost, and the “frost number model”, a dimensionless ratio defined by manipulation of freezing and thawing degree-day sums. The results show that the “altitude model” can simulate the high-altitude permafrost distribution under present climate conditions accurately. Given the essential hypotheses and using the GCM scenarios from HADCM2, the “altitude model” is used for predicting the permafrost distribution change on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. The results show that the permafrost on the plateau will not change significantly during 20–50 a, the percentage of the total disappeared area will not be over 19%. However, by the year 2099, if the air temperature increases by an average of 2.91°C on the plateau, the decrease in the area of permafrost will exceed 58%—almost all the permafrost in the southern plateau and in the eastern plateau will disappear. Project “Fundamental Research of Cryosphere” supported by the Chinese Academy of Sciences.     

Morphological development of the retention basin “Hartheim”: A case study

Flow in rivers and on floodplains is complex as it is affected by several interconnected factors such as topography, sediment transport and vegetation characteristics. The resulting processes are explained by the measure “Hartheim” planned for retention purposes at the Upper Rhine river. On the basis of existing formulas and instruments it is demonstrated that a good estimation of the development of the measure is possible. The proposed procedure is a useful tool for estimating morphological developments of restored river sections.     

Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program maps are erroneous

The March 11, 2011 megathrust on the Pacific coast of the Tohoku Region, Japan, and its consequences once again confirmed the presence of evident problems in the conventional methodology of risk and earthquake loss evaluation. A systematic analysis shows that the results of the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP, 1992–1999) contradict the actual occurrence of strong earthquakes. In particular, since the publication of the GSHAP final results in 1999, all 60 earthquakes with magnitudes of 7.5 or higher were “surprises” for the GSHAP maps. Moreover, in half of the cases they were “big surprises,” when instead of the expected “light” or “moderate,” “significant” or even “total” destruction took place. All twelve of the deadliest earthquakes happened in 2000–2011 (total number of deaths exceeded 700000 people) prove that the GSHAP results, as well as underlying methodologies, are deeply flawed and, evidently, unacceptable for any critical risk assessments entitled to prevent disasters caused by earthquakes.     

Mount Etna eruptions of the last 2,750 years: revised chronology and location through archeomagnetic and <Superscript>226</Superscript>Ra-<Superscript>230</Superscript>Th dating

A careful re-examination of the well-known written documents pertaining to the 2,750-year-long historical period of Mount Etna was carried out and their interpretation checked through the high-accuracy archeomagnetic method (>1,200 large samples), combined with the ²²⁶Ra-²³⁰Th radiochronology. The magnetic dating is based upon secular variation of the direction of the geomagnetic field (DGF) and estimated to reach a precision of  ±40 years for the last 1,200 years, and ±100 to 200 years up to circa 150 B.C. Although less precise, the ²²⁶Ra-²³⁰Th method provides a unique tool for distinguishing between historic and prehistoric lavas, which in some cases might have similar DGFs. We show that despite the abundance of details on ancient historical eruptions, the primary sources of information are often too imprecise to identify their lava flows and eruptive systems. Most of the ages of these lavas, which are today accepted on the geological maps and catalogues, were attributed in the 1800s on the basis of their morphology and without any stratigraphical control. In fact, we found that 80% of the “historically dated” flows and cones prior to the 1700s are usually several hundreds of years older than recorded, the discrepancies sometimes exceeding a millennium. This is proper the case for volcanics presumed of the “1651 east” (actually ∼1020), “1595” (actually two distinct flows, respectively, ∼1200 and ∼1060), “1566” (∼1180), “1536” (two branches dated ∼1250 and ∼950), “1444” (a branch dated ∼1270), “1408” (lower branches dated ∼450 and ∼350), “1381” (∼1160), “1329” (∼1030), “1284” (∼1450 and ∼700), “1169 or 812” (∼1000) eruptions. Conversely, well-preserved cones and flows that are undated on the maps were produced by recent eruptions that went unnoticed in historical accounts, especially during the Middle Ages. For the few eruptions that are recorded between A.D. 252 and 750 B.C., none of their presumed lava flows shows a DGF in agreement with that existing at their respective dates of occurrence, most of these flows being in fact prehistoric. The cinder cones of Monpeloso (presumed “A.D. 252”) and Mt. Gorna (“394 B.C.”), although roughly consistent magnetically and radiochronologically with their respective epochs, remain of unspecified age because of a lack of precision of the DGF reference curve at the time. It is concluded that at the time scale of the last millennia, Mount Etna does not provide evidence of a steady-state behavior. Periods of voluminous eruptions lasting 50 to 150 years (e.g., A.D. 300–450, 950–1060, 1607–1669) are followed by centuries of less productive activity, although at any time a violent outburst may occur. Such a revised history should be taken into account for eruptive models, magma output, internal plumbing of the volcano, petrological evolution, volcano mapping and civil protection.