Geography and migration policies: the Indian experience

This paper attempts to examine the differences in sex preference and its impact on fertility behavior among various age groups in the State of Haryana. In India, male children have greater utility over females because of religious, social and economic reasons. Various studies have established the fact that there is a prevalence of sex preference and a marked relationship between son preference and family size. This leads to increased fertility, and ultimately towards population growth rate. Data were collected from the National Family Health Survey report in 1993. The intensity of sex preference on fertility was computed on the basis of contraception method. Moreover, detailed analysis was carried out on the basis of desired additional children and their sex ratio. This study also presents an examination of the Indian system, family planning measures, sex ratio of desired additional children taken as a basis for the measurement of overall effect of sex preference on fertility.     

家庭送养的时空演化及决策机制

中国民间抱养行为由来已久,家庭送养的决策将完全改变儿童的生存和发展的轨迹。囿于送养的隐蔽性和复杂性,且相关研究匮乏,亟需系统性的剖析。文章基于公益平台寻亲数据,运用社会网络、空间分析、数理统计以及地理探测器的方法,探究1981—2010年家庭送养的时空分异特征,并进一步归纳送养决策的流程及原因机制。结果表明：1）送养主体为未满1周岁女童。2）送养人数在时间上呈现“先增后减”的倒“U”型分布,在空间上主要分布在中国东部、中部以及川渝地区。3）家庭送养原因以经济贫困为主,违反生育政策的影响次之。当家庭面临狭小的生育空间时,重男轻女的思想会被强化。4）地理探测器结果揭示,人口因素是影响送养空间分异最主要的原因,自然灾害、计划生育和经济因素在不同时期产生较大影响。5）基于理性选择理论提出了多尺度下的家庭送养的影响机制,认为家庭在作理性送养决策时,往往遵循生存理性、经济理性、制度理性以及社会理性的原则。     

The economic value of children: a case study from rural India

This study compares the theses of Mamdami, that India's poor have large families as an investment, and Vlassoff, that only a weak connection exists between a child's economic utility and household fertility. Data used in the study were based on a sample of 18 children in Bihar state, India, on 1) expenditures on children, 2) opportunity costs of raising children, 3) child earnings, 4) child earnings given to parents, 5) alternative investments, 6) discount rates appropriate for parents to use, 7) parents' perceptions of the economic value of children, and 8) family size. Costs estimated included food, clothing, schooling, health, other, and opportunity costs in bearing and raising children. Benefits include estimated values for work within and outside the family. 2 balances indicate that 7 or 8 children, aged 6 to 15, provide more labor than they cost to keep. Data suggest that children become valuable to parents at about age 9 or 10. From this age on, benefits increasingly outweigh costs; by the age of 16 or 17, children have repaid their initial costs to parents. Comparing the value of children against local bank interest rates shows that in all cases but one, children provided a better economic investment than savings accounts. The authors suggest that children are an even greater economic investment in poorer households. Doling out condoms and pills is no substitute for child wealth. In Bihar, improving people's economic well-being may be a prerequisite to fertility decline.     

Ideology and data analysis in African population policies. The case of Kenya

It is argued that the research agenda on fertility decline needs to be explanatory rather than operational and not tied to government policy justification. The research agenda should be set in the broader developmental and geographic contexts and with consideration of cultural practices. Demographic and Health Surveys provide limited biosocial data, which does not provide a fuller analysis of the factors affecting contraceptive use and effectiveness. Clear associations are drawn between rising contraceptive use and fertility decline and are used as supports for national and international policy makers. Although policy formation may be justified by this research agenda, the view is taken that this is "bad science." Kenya has been used as a model for population change in Africa. Kenya is viewed as a country with obvious direct government involvement in policies on fertility reduction, which mirror the ideological biases of the global model. The global model assumes a universal relationship between fertility and contraceptive prevalence and attaches little significance to cultural differences. However, research recognizes that in Africa family relationships, land tenure, and economic organization are different and highly variable. If economic and social variables on Kenya were available, it is possible that the economic change hypothesis could be proven. Kenya has great regional differences and wide gaps in levels of development. For many countries population growth is the key factor in development, and policies reflect the threat of loan conditions or reductions in foreign aid. Many African countries moved in the direction of reducing population growth through improved health and education, more jobs, improved status of women, and other indirect measures. This approach relies on the Western model of demographic transition. This author argues that knowledge and conclusions about fertility in Africa are more conditioned by ideology rather than technical concerns. In the case of Kenya ideology is supported by research, but a fuller explanation of family formation is not yet available. Kenya's population policy is based on the contraception hypothesis, and data are not yet available for testing other alternative child mortality or economic change hypotheses and constructively informing policy makers about fertility decline.     

Birth control practices and levels of development in India

The paper examines the acceptance of birth control practices in India, and examines the relationhsip of these patterns to levels of economic development. A study of selected couples with markedly low incomes revealed that fertility tended to increase until a certain level of per capita income was reached. From this level onward, fertility and desired family size goals declined with increasing economic status. The study reveals an association in India between those less developed states and poor acceptance of family planning. The level of medical and administrative personnel for family planning services is superior in the more developed states and, logically, adoption of family planning practices is also higher. In higher-income states, characterized by relatively higher spatial mobility and literacy rates, the spread of family planning practices is relatively rapid. In less developed states, characterized by poorly developed centralized systems of communication and distribution, a lower spatial mobility of people, and a lower diffusion of knowledge through personal contact, family planning methods tend to spread very slowly or become less and less popular. A classification of Indian states as related to their acceptance of formal family planning policy and governmental efforts has been helpful in developing regionally-oriented program strategies for the future. Such strategies would take into account varying socioeconomic, cultural and administrative infrastructure differences in order to better assure delivery of services. As India also faces a shortage of trained physicians and personnel for the National Family Planning program, a regionally-based spatial allocation policy must be formulated that will divert some family planning personnel from states with high-acceptance patterns to the more densely populated, less developed regions of the country.     

东北三省城乡收入差距空间格局及其分异机制研究

借助多元逐步线性回归、GWR等模型方法,探讨1990年以来东北三省城乡收入差距空间格局、类型特征及其分异机制,最后提出城乡统筹可持续发展建议。结果表明： 1990年以来,东北三省城乡居民收入水平大幅提高,但大部分地区城镇居民可支配收入水平仍低于全国平均水平;城乡收入差距整体有所拉大,呈现出“中间高、两端低”的空间特征。 城乡收入差距空间分布格局受经济发展水平、工业拉动效应、服务业带动力和交通通达程度影响,其中经济发展水平对城乡收入差距由早期的正向拉大作用为主,逐步演变为负向抑制效应。 据此提出对策建议：深化改革开放,加快国有企业改革步伐,优化区域产业结构,提高服务业发展水平和比重,激发市场活力,破解制约区域经济发展的各种障碍;加快实施乡村振兴战略,促进乡村资源开发,开辟致富增收新路径。     

Regional development in the United States during the 1980s: population redistribution and economic restructuring

The reduction of the rate of growth of the Brazilian population from 3% in the 1960s to 2% by 1993 resulted from a significant reduction of fertility. According to the 1986 national maternal-child health and family planning survey (PNSMIPF) results, 43.3% of women were using some type of contraception: 65.6% of married or cohabiting women. Women relied most on sterilization (17.2%), followed by oral contraceptives (OCs) (17%), the rhythm method (2.8%), the condom (1.1%), and others (5.2%). Only in the south was OC use more prevalent (28.5%) than sterilization (12.2%). The proportion of sterilization reached 27.8% in the north/center-east urban regions. In urban areas sterilization averaged 18.7% vs. 12.7% in rural areas. 26.9% of currently married women in the age range of 15-44 years had been sterilized. A 1990 international estimation indicated that the proportion of sterilization amounted to 36.9% in China, 30.95 in India, 29.7% in Brazil, 47.6% in South Korea, 30.4% in Thailand, and 36.5% in the Dominican Republic. The 1986 PNSMIPF survey also indicated that sterilized women were better informed than other women about contraception. 75% of the former had used OCs, 5% had used the diaphragm, 3% the IUD, 30% the condom, and 35% coitus interruptus at one time or other. The sterilized women had an average of 1.7 more children than those who were using other methods of contraception. 48.6% of women were sterilized before the age of 30, when they had had an average of 3.6 children. 66.6% of the sterilized women who had given birth before the age of 20 had 4 or more live births as compared to 5.9% of sterilized women aged 30 with the same number of children. 47% of women without any schooling were using some kind of contraception vs. 77% of those who had completed secondary school. A multivariate analysis also showed that the age of the mother, the number of live births, the educational status of the mother, and family income were positively correlated with sterilization.     

The ethics of population control in rural China, 1979-92

This article identifies some issues of importance in understanding China's policy of population control. This article presents evidence of trends in fertility, population policy, family planning, and socioeconomic change; and then discusses the conflict between fertility preferences and policy that is evident from studies of ideal family size and sex ratios. Some issues that are identified as "uncertain" include the extent of spread of family planning service delivery and its associated insurance schemes, local family planning policies and cadre responsibility systems, the demand for children, the demand for female children, the economic and environmental consequences of population growth, the fairness of reproductive restrictions and their application, and the extent of coercion in the later-longer-fewer policy era. It is argued that an ethical framework for analyzing China's population policy should include answers to questions about the harm to welfare from population growth, the government's right to demand voluntary reproductive sacrifice or to impose demographic or reproductive restrictions and punishment, and the government's right to impose coercion. If it is accepted that population growth in China has adverse consequences and its control would be beneficial to all, then it must be determined what the nature of the relationship should be between the state and the individual. The author refers to Walzer's (1983) position that the legitimacy of Chinese state power depends in part on whether political leaders at all levels are competent and not corrupt. The rights and duties of the government and individuals must be understood not just in terms of political legitimacy but also in terms of social justice. Social justice is dependent upon the degree of horizontal and vertical consultation and accountability, utilitarian consequences, and protected spheres of individual judgement. Utilitarian theories justify the one-child policy, while deontological theories support reproductive freedom as an absolute right.     

Thinking of England and taking care: family building strategies and infant mortality in England and Wales, 1891-1911

"Debates concerning the origins and development of the late nineteenth- to early twentieth-century declines in marital fertility and infant mortality in England and Wales have been centred largely on the material provided by answers to the ?special' questions in the 1911 census. In their published form these figures have restricted researchers to an examination of large scale geographic and social class differences in the levels and rates of decline of the two phenomena. This paper outlines research conducted on a sample of individual census returns from the 1911 census. From this data it becomes clear that for Victorian and Edwardian England ?where one lived' was rather more important than ?who one was' in determining both family building strategies and the survival of those children born."     

基于结构方程模型的休耕地管护意愿及行为分析——以河北省邢台市为例

实行耕地休耕是我国近年对耕地保护和耕地利用转型的重大国家战略,而农户对休耕地进行管护是保证耕地休耕生态效应的重要前提。研究选取河北省邢台市2个乡镇12个村为分析样本,建立农户特征、家庭特征、认知意识、耕地利用状况等影响因素集合,利用结构方程模型对农户参与休耕地管护的意愿及行为选择进行分析。结果表明：（1） 有无经济补偿对农户休耕管护意愿影响较大。（2） 影响农户对休耕地管护的意愿和行为的潜在变量不尽相同,但认知意识对两者均起较大作用。（3） 党员身份、村干部身份、家庭总人数、农户心中的耕地保护责任人、对休耕政策的满意程度、对休耕地管护技术的了解程度、耕地面积、粮食种植比例等指标变量对休耕地管护意愿及行为产生正向影响;农户年龄、非农就业劳动力数量、家庭收入、耕地破碎度等指标变量对休耕地管护意愿及行为产生负向影响。研究结果为进一步扩大和推进耕地休耕制度落地实施提供参考：建议拓宽政策宣传渠道,完善休耕地管护的补偿方式;加强管护技术培训,激发农民对休耕地管护的热情;提高其管护的能力,保障耕地休耕的效果。     

Education as a determinant of fertility: a case study of Kullu Town

Using a sample of 885 females (1/2 of all married women of reproductive age), this study examines the role of education as a determinant of fertility among couples in Kullu town of Himachol Pradesh, India. Of the 885 respondents, only 149 were illiterate. The average family size was 2.88. Findings reveal that 1) the average family size was largest for illiterate respondents (3.57) and for illiterate males (3.76); 2) average family size declined consistently after the middle level of education to 1.29 for post graduate respondents and 2.33 for post graduate males; 3) a negative correlation exists between fertility and education of both husband and wife, with the wife's education having a stronger negative correlation with fertility; and 4) couples with an educational level of matriculation and above have a distinctly smaller family size than those less educated.     

悼念孙盘寿同志

我国著名的人口地理、城市地理和经济地理学家,中国地理学会经济地理专业委员会委员,北京市城市经济研究会理事,《城市规划》、《地理译报》编委,中国科学院地理研究所研究员孙盘寿同志于1985年6月14日16时35分不幸在北京病逝,终年69岁. 孙盘寿同志江苏宜兴县官林镇人,于1916年10月8日出生在一个贫农家庭,本姓王.幼年时家境贫寒历尽磨练.抗战期间,他流亡贵州,仍奋发自强,坚持求学,1942年在遵义以优良的成绩毕业于浙江大学史地系,获得学士学位.     

The transformation of housing and household structures in France and Great Britain

"In France and Great Britain, the last 30 years have seen considerable evolution in the housing stock...and in household structure....This article describes the dynamic interaction of processes influencing the evolution of both households and dwellings. In the two countries, the life course of individuals has become more and more complex. This translates into an ever greater variety of housing needs, not only at different stages in family life, but also in relation to growing job insecurity regardless of family situation. At the same time, policies encouraging home-ownership seem to have reached their limits, because of the new demand for rented accommodation. The answer to sociological and economic evolution cannot be found in a ?single' type of housing and tenure status, but rather in a wide range of dwellings and in the development of a more flexible housing market."     

居民对生活质量评估与区域经济发展的定量分析

通过对全国 1 5个省份 1 9个县 (市 )近万户调查数据的分析得出 :居民对自己生活状况的主观评价与区域经济发展水平并不呈现显著正相关关系 ;居民对自己生活状况的满意程度在城乡间、县际间存在一定差异 ,一般为城市高于农村。不同县域居民对影响其生活质量的主要因子的认识有很强的一致性。区域发展研究中 ,应当关注居民生活质量评估指标。     

祁连山中段青海云杉林土壤肥力质量评价研究

以祁连山排露沟流域青海云杉林为研究对象,研究了海拔梯度上土壤肥力因子的分布特征及变化规律,并运用主成分分析法对青海云杉林土壤肥力状况进行了评价。结果表明：（1）研究区土壤呈碱性,pH值均大于8.0;高海拔地区（3 300 m）含水量达到过饱和状态,各土层含水量均大于100%;随海拔升高,全氮含量呈增大趋势,全钾含量呈减小趋势,而全磷含量呈先减小后增大趋势;不同海拔梯度速效磷含量差异不显著（P>0.05）,海拔3 300 m处速效钾含量显著高于其他海拔段（P<0.05）。（2） 不同海拔梯度下土壤有机质、全氮、全磷、全钾、速效磷和速效钾含量都有明显的“表聚效应”,其中3 300 m处0~10 cm土层有机质含量高达325.93 g·kg^-1,是本海拔段其他土层的1.6~1.8倍,是同土层其他海拔段的1.3~2.0倍。（3） 土壤肥力因子间关系密切,土壤含水量与有机质、全氮呈极显著正相关关系,与土壤容重、pH和全钾呈极显著负相关关系,土壤养分含量之间存在不同程度的显著正相关关系。（4） 不同海拔梯度土壤肥力质量为：3 300 m>3 200 m>3 100 m>3 000 m>2 900 m。     

生态地理区域界线划分的指标体系

生态地理区域界线由一系列反映生态地理区域特征的指标为依据 ,通过其空间差异落实到具体的空间位置上。客观地认识和划定生态地理区域界线是揭示生态环境时空有序性的重要途径 ,是地域系统研究的基础。生态地理区域界线是两个相邻的、彼此不同的生态地理区质上转变的线或带 ,反映同一等级内划分出来的内部相对一致性与外部的差异性。界线代表有一定宽度的带 ,而且可能随着时间而迁移变化 ,等级越低界线越明显 ,等级越高界线越宽。在生态地理区域划分中 ,先选择人力不能大规模改变的几个主要因素 :温度指标 ,主要指标是日平均气温≥ 1 0℃的天数和积温 ,最冷月平均气温 ,最暖月平均气温等 ;水分指标 ,干湿指数 ,目前比较普遍采用的是年干燥度 ,它可以近似地表征某一地方的干湿程度 ;年降水量的资料通常比较可靠 ,但潜在蒸发的计算需要改进和提高。生态地理区域较高级单位的划分依据侧重考虑生物气候的差异 ,先注意水平地带性 ,由于气候台站的有限性 ,所划分出的界线往往用植被界线去修正 ;而垂直地带性则将潜在植被与气候联系起来 ,按照降水量、潜在蒸发率和生物温度来进行划分。如何处理级别与依据和指标之间的关系是另一个重要问题 ,在这个问题的处理上 ,国内外很不统一。     

广西北仑河口红树林湿地大型底栖动物多样性的初步研究

2010年7月对广西北仑河口红树林湿地的大型底栖动物进行调查,共发现大型底栖动物8门10纲46科106种,其中软体动物49种,甲壳类36种,多毛类10种,其它类11种。生物量优势种和密度优势种都是软体动物门的珠带拟蟹守螺。大型底栖动物平均生物量是103.09g/m2,平均密度是196个/m2。与历史调查数据比较,本次调查发现了69种本地新种;对比国内6个红树林区底栖动物群落结构,其生物量及栖息密度属于中等偏下,物种多样性指数高于其它红树林区。结果表明:底栖动物的生物量及栖息密度与红树林发育状况呈负相关的关系,物种多样性与红树林发育状况呈正相关的关系。     

中国省域展览业与经济相关关系及其空间溢出研究

以中国展览业为例,立足于展览业和区域经济发展的空间分布特征,使用Moran’s I和Moran’s I散点图阐释展览业与区域经济之间的空间自相关性,分析纳入空间因素的空间计量经济模型相对于经典回归模型的优越程度,进而揭示展览业发展对区域经济的空间溢出效应。研究结果显示：① 中国展览业发展和区域经济水平在地理空间上分布都不均衡;② 展览业及区域经济皆呈现高高聚集（HH）、低低聚集（LL）两种空间聚集格局;③ 现阶段,中国展馆规模与区域经济之间存在正相关关系;④ SLM优于经典回归模型,展览业发展对区域经济存在显著的空间溢出效应,在展览经济预测研究中充分考虑区域经济增长过程中的空间效应十分必要。     

人居环境气候舒适度对城市创新的影响分析

以中国创新水平较高的91个地级及以上城市为研究对象,探讨人居环境气候舒适度对城市创新的影响程度。以城市发明专利申请数代表城市创新水平,采用温湿指数和风效指数的组合模型,参照相应的分级标准计算各城市年气候舒适期,分析城市人居环境气候舒适度与城市创新的关系。结果表明:气候舒适期每增加1%,发明专利申请数仅平均增加0.012%,相对于GDP、R&D人员全时当量、R&D经费等影响城市创新的关键因素,城市人居环境气候舒适度对城市创新有一定影响,但影响并不十分显著。因此,创新政策的着眼点在于关注城市创新投入、人力资本、经济规模等影响城市创新的关键因素。在此基础上,创新布局也应考虑人居环境气候舒适度因素。     

Population trends and the status of population policy in Africa

There is every indication that Africa's population growth will remain well above the world average for the remainder of this decade and probably for the rest of this century. With the exception of the island states and parts of North Africa, fertility levels show little indication of change. This is in part a reflection of little desire for small families, as well as a consequence of limited or even restricted family planning services. Great diversity in attitudes regarding population policy prevails among African governments, ranging from extreme pronatal to committed antinatal. Even with antinatal policies, however, many African states have yet to attain any significant success in depressing their rates of growth. To date, Mauritius can be cited as the only state to have almost achieved the transition from high to low fertility. The consequence of these continuing trends is that Africa will see further increases in its youth dependency ratio. Pressures on infrastructural services will therefore increase, and the problems of generating employment will intensify. While demographic factors are by no means the only ones creating economic stress on the continent, they clearly are contributory. Unlike Asia or parts of Latin America, Africa's problem is less a matter of too many people but rather 1 of excessive growth in too short a time frame. A realistic and effective long-term population policy, therefore, is an immediate need. Several countries including Nigeria (with a pouplation of over 80 million) are experiencing a crude birth rate of 50 or more/1,000. At least 4 countries, including Kenya, are currently doubling their population in 20 years or less. With these current population trends, a demographic transition to low vital rates must assume passage through an even higher growth phase than is currently being experienced because the fall in birth rates tends to occur much later than the fall in death rates. Government population policies and the status of family planning activities are illustrated according to natal sentiments and attitudes. Trends in national vital rates and of population structures in Africa are illustrated.