Vulnerability assessment in a volcanic risk evaluation in Central Mexico through a multi-criteria-GIS approach

The Valley of Toluca is a major industrial and agricultural area in Central Mexico, especially the City of Toluca, the capital of The State of Mexico. The Nevado de Toluca volcano is located to the southwest of The Toluca Basin. Results obtained from the vulnerability assessment phase of the study area (5,040 km² and 42 municipalities) are presented here as a part of a comprehensive volcanic risk assessment of The Toluca Basin. Information has been gathered and processed at a municipal level including thematic maps at 1:250,000 scale. A database has been built, classified and analyzed within a GIS environment; additionally, a Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) approach was applied as an aid for the decision-making process. Cartographic results were five vulnerability maps: (1) Total Population, (2) Land Use/Cover, (3) Infrastructure, (4) Economic Units and (5) Total Vulnerability. Our main results suggest that the Toluca and Tianguistenco urban and industrial areas, to the north and northeast of The Valley of Toluca, are the most vulnerable areas, for their high concentration of population, infrastructure, economic activity, and exposure to volcanic events.     

A 2.5 ka History of Dacitic Magmatism at Nevado de Toluca, Mexico: Petrological, 40Ar/39Ar Dating, and Experimental Constraints on Petrogenesis

After 11·5 ka of quiescence (24·5–13 ka),the Nevado de Toluca volcano started a 2500 year period of activity.This period was characterized by a dome destruction event at13 ka, a small Plinian event at 12·1 ka, and a largePlinian eruption at 10·5 ka. About 10 km³ of magma waserupted that was homogeneous in composition (63·3–65·7SiO₂ wt % whole-rock) and in mineralogy. Pumice consists ofplagioclase (An_30–59) > orthopyroxene (En_56–59)> hornblende >> Fe–Ti oxides + rare apatite (inopx) + biotite, set in a rhyolitic matrix (72–76 SiO₂wt %). ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar analysis of single biotite crystals yieldedages (0·81–4·7 Ma), that do not correspondto eruption ages. The biotite represents partially assimilatedxenocrysts, which could have resided in the magma for only ashort period of time. Mineral chemical data, coupled with hydrothermalexperiments, indicate that prior to eruption the dacitic magmastagnated at a depth of 4·5–6 km below the summitat water pressures of 160–210 MPa and a temperature of824 ± 12°C on the basis of Fe–Ti oxide thermometry,and under water-saturated conditions. To stabilize a homogeneousmagma body of >10 km³ at 824°C in the upper crust, wepropose that reheating of the dacitic reservoir by hotter magmabatches was able to maintain the equilibrium between the temperatureof the magma and the assimilation of wall-rock over a periodof 2500 years. Based on similarities among the juvenile products,we suggest that the three eruptions were fed from the same magmabody. KEY WORDS: explosive volcanism; xenocrystic contamination; Nevado de Toluca, Mexico     

Agronomic impact of tephra fallout from the 1995 and 1996 Ruapehu Volcano eruptions, New Zealand

 Eruptions from Ruapehu Volcano on 11 and 14 October 1995 and 17 June 1996 distributed at least 36×10⁶ m³ of sulphur(S)-rich tephra over the central and eastern North Island of New Zealand. The tephras added between 30–1500 kg ha^–1 S to at least 25 000 km² of land in primary production. Smaller but beneficial amounts of selenium (Se) and in some areas potassium and magnesium were also supplied. Addition of S to the soils in the form of sulphate and elemental S resulted in a drop in soil pH and an increase in pasture S contents within seven weeks of the eruptions. The soils affected by the tephra are naturally low in S and Se, but following the eruptions S was not required in fertilizer applications in many areas. The strongest and longest lasting effects of S and Se deposition were in high anion-retention soils particularly Hapludands (moist, moderately weathered soils, derived from volcanic ash). Soluble fluorine concentrations within the tephras were low compared to historic Icelandic and Chilean examples. However, pastoral livestock deaths were apparently caused by fluorosis in addition to starvation when tephra covered feed. The Ruapehu tephra contained very low concentrations of other soluble toxic elements. Received: 17 January 1997 · Accepted: 31 March 1997     

Significance of enhanced infiltration due to groundwater extraction on the disappearance of a headwater lagoon system: Toluca Basin, Mexico

Mexico City relies significantly on groundwater resources drawn from the Sistema Lerma well field located in the Toluca Basin, Mexico. Enhanced infiltration caused by groundwater extraction is suspected to be both a prime factor in the disappearance of a lagoon system at the Toluca Basin and a potential risk to long-term groundwater quality. A combined approach of field investigation and numerical modeling was adopted to assess the groundwater-surface water interactions within the lagoon system. Potentiometric data indicate that current downward vertical hydraulic gradients below the lagoon and surrounding wetland area are extremely low suggesting very slow infiltration rates. Geochemical and isotope data from surface water and groundwater sampling also indicate that very little surface water infiltration has occurred. Numerical simulations demonstrate that enhanced surface water infiltration is unlikely to be the primary cause in the significant reduction in size of the lagoon system. Other factors such as modifications to the surface water drainage system and capture of spring flow from the surrounding mountainous regions are likely more significant. Simulations also suggest that contaminants originating in the lagoon system are currently entering nearby production wells although the total contaminant mass flux to the wells is still very low and significantly diluted.

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Resumen La Ciudad de México depende significativamente de los recursos de aguas subterráneas obtenidos del campo de pozos Sistema Lerma ubicado en la Cuenca Toluca, oeste de la Cuenca de México. Se sospecha que la infiltración estimulada causada por extracción intensiva de aguas subterráneas es un factor principal en la desaparición de un sistema de lagunas en la cabeceras del Río Lerma en el centro de México y un riesgo potencial para la calidad de aguas subterráneas a largo plazo en la región. Se adoptó un enfoque combinado de investigación de campo y modelizado numérico para evaluar las interacciones de agua superficial-agua subterránea dentro del sistema de lagunas. Datos potenciométricos indican que los gradientes hidráulicos verticales descendentes actuales, ubicados por debajo de la laguna y vecina área de humedales, son extremadamente bajos sugiriendo ritmos de infiltración muy lentos. Datos geoquímicos e isotópicos provenientes del muestreo de agua superficial y subterránea también indican que ha ocurrido muy poca infiltración de agua superficial. Las simulaciones numéricas demuestran cuantitativamente que no es probable que la infiltración estimulada de agua superficial sea la causa principal en la reducción significativa del tamaño del sistema de lagunas en la cabecera. Otros factores tal como modificaciones al sistema superficial de drenaje de agua y captura de flujo de manantial en las regiones montañosas vecinas son probablemente más significativos. Las simulaciones también sugieren que los contaminantes que se originan en el sistema de lagunas están actualmente ingresando a pozos de producción cercanos aunque el flujo de masa contaminante total a los pozos es aún muy bajo y diluido significativamente en los volúmenes grandes de extracción. La magnitud de la amenaza a largo plazo a la calidad del agua subterránea en los pozos de producción Sistema Lerma proveniente de contaminantes infiltrados es una preocupación y amerita estudios futuros.

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Résumé La Cité de Mexico dépend significativement des ressources en eau souterraine pompées au site de captages de Sistema Lerma, dans le Bassin de Toluca, à lOuest du Bassin de Mexico. Laugmentation de linfiltration, causée par lextraction extensive des eaux souterraines, est suspectée dêtre à la fois un facteur primaire de la disparition dun système de lagons en amont de la rivière Lerma au centre de Mexico, et un risque potentiel à long-terme pour la qualité de leau souterraine dans la région. Uen approche combinée détudes de terrain et de modélisation numérique a été adoptée pour estimer les interactions entre les eaux de surface et les eaux souterraines, au sein du système de lagons. Les données potentiométriques indiquent que les gradients hydrauliques verticaux descendants sont très bas au niveau des lagons, ce qui suppose un taux dinfiltration faible. Les données géochimiques et isotopiques provenant des eaux de surface et souterraines, indiquent également que peu deau de surface sinfiltrent. La simulation numérique démontre quantitativement que laugmentation de linfiltration des eaux de surface nest probablement pas la première cause de réduction des lagons. Dautres facteurs, tels que les modifications du drainage des eaux de surface, laménagement en captage des sources situées aux pieds des montagnes environnantes, sont probablement plus importants. Les simulations suggèrent également que les contaminants provenant des lagons se retrouvent également dans les captages les plus proches, bien que le flux total de contaminants entrant dans les captages reste faible. Les volumes dextraction étant très important ils diluent effectivement les contaminants. Les effets à long-terme de lextraction critique au niveau des forages de Sistema Lerma et de la dégradation de la qualité des eaux souterraines par les contaminants, nécessite une grande attention pour le futur.

     

Volcanic hazards in the surroundings of Pico de Orizaba,eastern Mexico

Volcanic hazards from Pico de Orizaba volcano are presented here tor the first time. Some 1.3 million people live within the hazard zone, which in the most severe case would encompass the Mexican Gulf coast, east of the volcano. Three major cities located in the eastern part of the hazard zone account for 800 000 of this population and about 200 000 people live within a 20 km radius of the volcano. Probability calculations are presented as an attempt to quantify the hazards in the surroundings of the volcano. Such quantification can be of use in planning for future land use within the hazard zones.A zone of about 10 km radius centred on the top crater is a high hazard zone for gravity-driven flows and fallout ejecta. For large volume eruptions, the radius could be extended to 120 km to the east and 60 km to the west. The asymmetrical distribution is related to the topography of the volcano. Hazards from Pyroclastic-fall deposits are principally to the west of the volcano, since easterly winds are dominant in the area lava-flow hazards are greatest within a 10 km radius from the summit crater. Pyroclastic flow hazards are high up to 20 km from the volcano summit.In the case of reactivation of the volcano, melting of a glacier covering the summit of Pico de Orizaba having a volume equivalent to some 45 × 10⁹ litres of water, would produce lahars which would descend the flanks of the volcano.     

Adakitic Dacites Formed by Intracrustal Crystal Fractionation of Water-rich Parent Magmas at Nevado de Longavi Volcano (36{middle dot}2{degrees}S; Andean Southern Volcanic Zone, Central Chile)

The mid-Holocene eruptive products of Nevado de Longavívolcano (36·2°S, Chile) are the only reported occurrenceof adakitic volcanic rocks in the Quaternary Andean SouthernVolcanic Zone (33–46°S). Dacites of this volcano arechemically distinct from other evolved magmas of the regionin that they have high La/Yb (15–20) and Sr/Y (60–90)ratios and systematically lower incompatible element contents.An origin by partial melting of high-pressure crustal sourcesseems unlikely from isotopic and trace element considerations.Mafic enclaves quenched into one of the dacites, on the otherhand, constitute plausible parental magmas. Dacites and maficenclaves share several characteristics such as mineral chemistry,whole-rock isotope and trace element ratios, highly oxidizingconditions (NNO + 1·5 to >NNO + 2, where NNO is thenickel–nickel oxide buffer), and elevated boron contents.A two-stage mass-balance crystal fractionation model that matchesboth major and trace elements is proposed to explain magmaticevolution from the least evolved mafic enclave to the dacites.Amphibole is the main ferromagnesian phase in both stages ofthis model, in agreement with the mineralogy of the magmas.We also describe cumulate-textured xenoliths that correspondvery closely to the solid assemblages predicted by the model.We conclude that Nevado de Longaví adakitic dacites arethe products of polybaric fractional crystallization from exceptionallywater-rich parent magmas. These basaltic magmas are inferredto be related to an exceptionally high, but transient inputof slab-derived fluids released from serpentinite bodies hostedin the oceanic Mocha Fracture Zone, which projects beneath Nevadode Longaví. Fractional crystallization that is modallydominated by amphibole, with very minor garnet extraction, isa mechanism for generating adakitic magmas in cold subductionzones where a high flux of slab-derived fluids is present. KEY WORDS: adakite; amphibole; Andes; differentiation; Southern Volcanic Zone     

The Sanfandila earthquake sequence of 1998, Queretaro, Mexico: activation of an undocumented fault in the northern edge of central Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt

A sequence of small earthquakes occurred in Central Mexico, at the northern edge of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) in the State of Queretaro, during the first 3 months of 1998. Medium to large events in the continental regime of central Mexico are not common, but the seismic history of the region demonstrates that faults there are capable of generating destructive events. The sequence was analyzed using data from a temporary network with the goals of identifying the causative fault and its relation to regional tectonics. Employing a waveform inversion scheme adapted from a method used for regional studies, we found that the source mechanisms conform to the style of faulting (i.e. extension in the E–W direction) representative of the Taxco–San Miguel Allende Fault system. This system has been proposed as the southernmost extension of the Basin and Range (BR) Province. The spatial distribution of hypocenters and source mechanisms indicate that the seismogenic segment was a fault with an azimuth of approximately 334° with almost pure dip slip. Since events which occurred just south from this region show features which are consistent with TMVB tectonics (i.e. extension in an N–S direction), the sequence may mark the boundary between the TMVB and BR stress domains.     

Build‐up and depositional dynamics of an arc front volcaniclastic complex: the Miocene Tepoztlán Formation (Transmexican Volcanic Belt,Central Mexico)

Volcanic terrains such as magmatic arcs are thought to display the most complex surface environments on Earth. Ancient volcaniclastics are notoriously difficult to interpret as they describe the interplay between a single or several volcanoes and the environment. The Early Miocene Tepoztlán Formation at the southern edge of the Transmexican Volcanic Belt belongs to the few remnants of this ancestral magmatic arc, and therefore is thought to represent an example of the initial phase of evolution of the Transmexican Volcanic Belt. Based on geological mapping, detailed logging of lithostratigraphic sections, palaeocurrent data of sedimentary features and anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility, mapping of two‐dimensional panels from outcrop to field scale, and geochronological data in an area of ca 1000 km², three periods in the evolution of the Tepoztlán Formation were distinguished, which lasted around 4 Myr and are representative of a volcanic cycle (edifice growth phases followed by collapse) in a magmatic arc setting. The volcaniclastic sediments accumulated in proximal to medial distances on partly coalescing aprons, similar to volcanic ring plains, around at least three different stratovolcanoes. These volcanoes resulted from various eruptions separated by repose periods. During the first phase of the evolution of the Tepoztlán Formation (22·8 to 22·2 Ma), deposition was dominated by fluvial sediments in a braided river setting. Pyroclastic material from small, andesitic–dacitic composite volcanoes in the near vicinity was mostly eroded and reworked by fluvial processes, resulting in sediments ranging from cross‐bedded sand to an aggradational series of river gravels. The second phase (22·2 to 21·3 Ma) was characterized by periods of strong volcanic activity, resulting in voluminous accumulations of lava and tuff, which temporarily overloaded and buried the original fluvial system with its detritus. Continuous build‐up of at least three major volcanic centres further accentuated the topography and, in the third phase (21·3 to 18·8 Ma), mass flow processes, represented by an increase of debris flow deposits, became dominant, marking a period of edifice destruction and flank failures.