Study of temperature and precipitation variations in Italy based on surface instrumental observations

In this paper we present a study concerning the climatic behaviour of two principal observables, temperature and precipitation as obtained from the measurements carried out at 50 Italian meteorological stations, since 1961. Analyses of WMO Climate Normals (CliNo) from 1961 to 1990 have been performed dividing the 50 Italian stations in three different classes: mountain (11 stations), continental (17) and coastal areas (21).The comparison of the CliNo 1961–1990 with the trend of temperature and precipitation for the period 1991–2000 showed a sharp significant increase of summer temperatures over Italy starting from 1980. This phenomenon was particularly evident for mountain stations, where a significant temperature increase has been recorded also during the autumn. Moreover, the analysis of precipitation data permitted to point out that, starting from 1980, mountain stations have been affected by a significant increase of precipitation events during autumn and winter, while for the rest of the Italian territory a reduction of precipitations has been recorded during early spring.     

Tree-ring based summer temperature reconstruction for the source region of the Yangtze River on the Tibetan Plateau

Understanding of past climatic variability over the Tibetan Plateau is still limited because of the lack of long-term climatic records. Here we reconstruct the mean summer (June–August) minimum temperature for the past 379 years based on tree-ring data in the source region of the Yangtze River. This reconstruction successfully captures recent abrupt climatic changes and agrees in general with other temperature reconstructions for the Tibetan Plateau on a decadal timescale. The cold and warm periods coincide with documented glacier advances and retreats on the east and southeast Tibetan Plateau. The interval 1816–22 is among the coldest periods in the reconstruction and may be related to the influence of the Tambora eruption in Indonesia in 1815. Comparisons with other paleoclimatic proxies imply a high degree of confidence for our reconstruction and its indicative power for a large-scale climate variability on the Tibetan Plateau.     

Temperature changes on the Tibetan Plateau during the past 600 years inferred from ice cores and tree rings

The climatological signal of δ¹⁸O variations preserved in ice cores recovered from Puruogangri ice field in the central Tibetan Plateau (TP) was calibrated with regional meteorological data for the past 50 years. For the period AD 1860–2000, 5-yearly averaged ice core δ¹⁸O and a summer temperature reconstruction derived from pollen data from the same ice core were compared. The statistical results provide compelling evidence that Puruogangri ice core δ¹⁸O variations represent summer temperature changes for the central TP, and hence regional temperature history during the past 600 years was revealed. A comparison of Puruogangri ice core δ¹⁸О with several other temperature reconstructions shows that broad-scale climate anomalies since the Little Ice Age occurred synchronously across the eastern and southern TP, and the Himalayas. Common cold periods were identified in the 15th century, 1625–1645 AD, 1660–1700 AD, 1725–1775 AD, 1795–1830 AD, 1850–1870 AD, 1890–1920 AD, 1940–1950 AD, and 1975–1985 AD. The period 1725–1775 AD was one of the most prolonged cool periods during the past 400 years and corresponded to maximum Little Ice Age glacier advance of monsoonal temperate glaciers of the TP.     

An estimate of the glacier ice volume in the Swiss Alps

Changes in glacier volume are important for questions linked to sea-level rise, water resource management, and tourism industry. With the ongoing climate warming, the retreat of mountain glaciers is a major concern. Predictions of glacier changes, necessarily need the present ice volume as initial condition, and for transient modelling, the ice thickness distribution has to be known. In this paper, a method based on mass conservation and principles of ice flow dynamics is applied to 62 glaciers located in the Swiss Alps for estimating their ice thickness distribution. All available direct ice thickness measurements are integrated. The ice volumes are referenced to the year 1999 by means of a mass balance time series. The results are used to calibrate a volume–area scaling relation, and the coefficients obtained show good agreement with values reported in the literature. We estimate the total ice volume present in the Swiss Alps in the year 1999 to be 74 ± 9 km³. About 12% of this volume was lost between 1999 and 2008, whereas the extraordinarily warm summer 2003 caused a volume loss of about 3.5%.     

Cyclone activity associated with the interannual seesaw oscillation of summer precipitation over northern Eurasia

This study describes surface cyclone activity associated with the interannual variability in summer precipitation in northern Eurasia and how that activity may be connected to other climate signals. An east–west seesaw oscillation of precipitation across Siberia is the primary mode of interannual variability in the summer hydrological cycle over northern Eurasia. This variation occurs at sub-decadal timescales of about 6–8 years. The spatial characteristics of cyclone frequency and cyclone tracks at the two poles in variability [eastern Siberia (ES)-wet–western Siberia (WS)-dry and WS-wet–ES-dry] were examined, and temporal variability in regional cyclone frequency was compared to basin-scale precipitation variability. The analysis period was from 1973 to 2002, when the precipitation variability signal was predominant.Cyclone behavior suggested that the regions of enhanced (reduced) cyclone activity coincided with regions of increased (decreased) precipitation in each phase of the oscillation. Such behavior reflects the zonal displacement of the track of frequent storm activity that accompanies the changes in precipitation. Comparisons of the temporal characteristics confirmed the importance of regional cyclone frequency on precipitation variability in both eastern and western Siberia. Low-frequency changes in regional cyclone activity may produce the precipitation oscillation. We used various climate signals to explore connections between regional precipitation and cyclone activity in Siberia. Results suggest that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) from the preceding winter is significantly and negatively correlated with summer surface cyclone frequency and precipitation over western Siberia. Enhanced (reduced) summer cyclone activity and precipitation in western Siberia follows low- (high-) winter NAO. However, the physical mechanisms linking summer cyclone activity and precipitation over western Siberia with the preceding climate conditions associated with the winter NAO remain unclear.     

On the ‘Divergence Problem’ in Northern Forests: A review of the tree-ring evidence and possible causes

An anomalous reduction in forest growth indices and temperature sensitivity has been detected in tree-ring width and density records from many circumpolar northern latitude sites since around the middle 20th century. This phenomenon, also known as the “divergence problem”, is expressed as an offset between warmer instrumental temperatures and their underestimation in reconstruction models based on tree rings. The divergence problem has potentially significant implications for large-scale patterns of forest growth, the development of paleoclimatic reconstructions based on tree-ring records from northern forests, and the global carbon cycle. Herein we review the current literature published on the divergence problem to date, and assess its possible causes and implications. The causes, however, are not well understood and are difficult to test due to the existence of a number of covarying environmental factors that may potentially impact recent tree growth. These possible causes include temperature-induced drought stress, nonlinear thresholds or time-dependent responses to recent warming, delayed snowmelt and related changes in seasonality, and differential growth/climate relationships inferred for maximum, minimum and mean temperatures. Another possible cause of the divergence described briefly herein is ‘global dimming’, a phenomenon that has appeared, in recent decades, to decrease the amount of solar radiation available for photosynthesis and plant growth on a large scale. It is theorized that the dimming phenomenon should have a relatively greater impact on tree growth at higher northern latitudes, consistent with what has been observed from the tree-ring record. Additional potential causes include “end effects” and other methodological issues that can emerge in standardization and chronology development, and biases in instrumental target data and its modeling. Although limited evidence suggests that the divergence may be anthropogenic in nature and restricted to the recent decades of the 20th century, more research is needed to confirm these observations.     

Glacier retreat and climatic variability in the eastern Terskey–Alatoo, inner Tien Shan between the middle of the 19th century and beginning of the 21st century

Changes in the extent of glaciers and rates of glacier termini retreat in the eastern Terskey–Alatoo Range, the Tien Shan Mountains, Central Asia have been evaluated using the remote sensing techniques. Changes in the extent of 335 glaciers between the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA; mid-19th century), 1990 and 2003 have been estimated through the delineation of glacier outlines and the LIA moraine positions on the Landsat TM and ASTER imagery for 1990 and 2003 respectively. By 2003, the glacier surface area had decreased by 19% of the LIA value, which constitutes a 76 km² reduction in glacier surface area. Mapping of 109 glaciers using the 1965 1:25,000 maps revealed that glacier surface area decreased by 12.6% of the 1965 value between 1965 and 2003. Detailed mapping of 10 glaciers using historical maps and aerial photographs from the 1943–1977 period, has enabled glacier extent variations over the 20th century to be identified with a higher temporal resolution. Glacial retreat was slow in the early 20th century but increased considerably between 1943 and 1956 and then again after 1977. The post-1990 period has been marked by the most rapid glacier retreat since the end of the LIA. The observed changes in the extent of glaciers are in line with the observed climatic warming. The regional weather stations have revealed a strong climatic warming during the ablation season since the 1950s at a rate of 0.02–0.03 °C a^− 1. At the higher elevations in the study area represented by the Tien Shan meteorological station, the summer warming was accompanied by negative anomalies in annual precipitation in the 1990s enhancing glacier retreat. However, trends in precipitation in the post-1997 period cannot be evaluated due to the change in observational practices at this station. Neither station in the study area exhibits significant long-term trends in precipitation.     

1000 years of climate variability in central Asia: assessing the evidence using Lake Baikal (Russia) diatom assemblages and the application of a diatom-inferred model of snow cover on the lake

The mainly endemic phytoplankton record of Lake Baikal has been used in this study to help interpret climate variability during the last 1000 years in central Asia. The diatom record was derived from a short core taken from the south basin and has been shown to be free from any sedimentary heterogeneities. We employ here a diatom-based inference model of snow accumulation on the frozen lake for the first time (r²_boot=0.709; RMSEP=0.120 log cm). However, palaeoenvironmental reconstructions have been improved by the use of correction factors, specifically developed for the dominant phytoplankton (Aulacoseira baicalensis, Aulacoseira skvortzowii, Cyclotella minuta, Stephanodiscus meyerii and Synedra acus) in the south basin of Lake Baikal. Cluster analysis identifies three significant zones in the core, zone 1 (c. 880 AD–c. 1180 AD), zone 2 (c. 1180–1840 AD) and zone 3 (c. 1840–1994 AD), coincident with the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the period of recent warming, respectively. Our results indicate that S. acus dominated the diatom phytoplankton within zone 1 coincident with the MWP. S. acus is an opportunistic species that is able to increase its net growth when A. baicalensis does not. During this period, conditions are likely to have been unfavourable for the net increases in A. baicalensis growth due to the persistence of warm water in the lake, together with an increased length of summer stratification and delay in timing of the autumnal overturn. In zone 2, spring diatom crops blooming under the ice declined in abundances due in part to increased winter severity and snow cover on the lake. Accumulating snow on the lake is likely to have arisen from increased anticyclonic activity, resulting in prolonged winters expressed during the LIA. Thick, accumulating snow cover inhibits light penetration through the ice, thereby having negative effects on cell division rate and extent of turbulence underneath the ice. Consequently, only taxa whose net growth occurs during autumn overturn (C. minuta) predominate in the lake at this time. Diatom census data and reconstructions of snow accumulation suggest that warming in the Lake Baikal region started as early as c. 1750 AD, with a shift from taxa that bloom during autumn overturn to assemblages that begin to grow underneath the frozen lake in spring. Very recent increases and subsequent decline of S. acus in the surface sediments of the lake mirror monitoring records of this species over the last 50 years. Our study confirms that, over the last 1000 years, physical processes are important in determining planktonic diatom populations in the lake and highlights the value of integrated plankton, trap, and sediment studies for improving quantitative palaeoenvironmental reconstructions from fossil material.     

Continental European Eemian and early Würmian climate evolution: comparing signals using different quantitative reconstruction approaches based on pollen

Analyses of Eemian climate dynamics based on different reconstruction methods were conducted for several pollen sequences in the northern alpine foreland. The modern analogue and mutual climate sphere techniques used, which are briefly presented, complement one another with respect to comparable results. The reconstructions reveal the occurrence of at least two similar thermal periods, representing temperate oceanic conditions warmer and with a higher humidity than today. Intense changes of climate processes become obvious with a shift of winter temperatures of about 15 °C from the late Rissian to the first thermal optimum of the Eemian. The transition shows a pattern of summer temperatures and precipitation increasing more rapidly than winter temperatures. With the first optimum during the Pinus–Quercetum mixtum–Corylus phase (PQC) at an early stage of the Eemian and a second optimum period at a later stage, which is characterised by widespread Carpinus, climate gradients across the study area were less intense than today. Average winter temperatures vary between −1.9 and 0.4 °C (present-day −3.6 to 1.4 °C), summer temperatures between 17.8 and 19.6 °C (present-day 14 to 18.9 °C). The timberline expanded about 350 m when compared to the present-day limit represented by Pinus mugo. Whereas the maximum of temperature parameters is related to the first optimum, precipitation above 1100 mm is higher during the second warm period concomitant to somewhat reduced temperatures. Intermediate, smaller climate oscillations and a cooling becomes obvious, which admittedly represent moderate deterioration but not extreme chills. During the boreal semicontinental Eemian Pinus–Picea–Abies phase, another less distinct fluctuation occurs, initiating the oscillating shift from temperate to cold conditions.     

Simulated circum-Arctic climate changes by the end of the 21st century

This study investigates future changes of the Arctic climate by the end of the 21st century, simulated by the regional climate model HIRHAM forced with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM general circulation model and assuming the SRES A1B emission scenario. This assessment provides the regional patterns of future circulation, temperature, and precipitation in the Arctic by the end of the 21st century. The magnitude of winter and summer temperature and precipitation is projected to increase, while their interannual variability is projected to change seasonally and is regionally dependent. The regional-scale response of the temperature and precipitation is associated with changes in storm tracks and atmospheric baroclinicity. During winter, the regions of strongest baroclinicity are shifted northward and strengthened. Changes in the seasonal temperature and precipitation are accompanied by changes in their extremes. Extreme warm and cold events are significantly projected to change, with relative changes of seasonal precipitation being larger than those of precipitation extremes.     

Climatic changes and associated impacts in the Mediterranean resulting from a 2 °C global warming

Climatic changes over the Mediterranean basin in 2031–2060, when a 2 °C global warming is most likely to occur, are investigated with the HadCM3 global circulation model and their impacts on human activities and natural ecosystem are assessed. Precipitation and surface temperature changes are examined through mean and extreme values analysis, under the A2 and B2 emission scenarios. Confidence in results is obtained via bootstrapping. Over the land areas, the warming is larger than the global average. The rate of warming is found to be around 2 °C in spring and winter, while it reaches 4 °C in summer. An additional month of summer days is expected, along with 2–4 weeks of tropical nights. Increase in heatwave days and decrease in frost nights are expected to be a month inland. In the northern part of the basin the widespread drop in summer rainfall is partially compensated by a winter precipitation increase. One to 3 weeks of additional dry days lead to a dry season lengthened by a week and shifted toward spring in the south of France and inland Algeria, and autumn elsewhere. In central Mediterranean droughts are extended by a month, starting a week earlier and ending 3 weeks later. The impacts of these climatic changes on human activities such as agriculture, energy, tourism and natural ecosystems (forest fires) are also assessed. Regarding agriculture, crops whose growing cycle occurs mostly in autumn and winter show no changes or even an increase in yield. In contrast, summer crops show a remarkable decrease of yield. This different pattern is attributed to a lengthier drought period during summer and to an increased rainfall in winter and autumn. Regarding forest fire risk, an additional month of risk is expected over a great part of the basin. Energy demand levels are expected to fall significantly during a warmer winter period inland, whereas they seem to substantially increase nearly everywhere during summer. Extremely high summer temperatures in the Mediterranean, coupled with improved climate conditions in northern Europe, may lead to a gradual decrease in summer tourism in the Mediterranean, but an increase in spring and autumn.     

On the Spörer Minimum

In this paper we have examined the real behaviour of solar activity during the period AD 1400–1600. The results are as follows: (1) the distributions of the 20 naked-eye sunspot records are inhomogeneous. There are 2 sightings in the 15th century and 18 sightings in the 16th century; (2) the distributions of auroral records are similar to sunspot. There are 33 records in the 15th century and 315 records in the 16th century; (3) the climatic fluctuations in China shows that the period AD 1430–1520 was cold while the period AD 1520–1620 was warm. These facts clearly demonstrate that the Spörer Minimum, if it extended from AD 1460 to 1550, could be a specious results and it, if its extent was AD 1400–1510, is a real feature of solar variability in that time.Paper presented at the IAU Third Asian-Pacific Regional Meeting, held in Kyoto, Japan, between 30 September–6 October, 1984.     

Quasi-periodic climate teleconnections between northern and southern Europe during the 17th–20th centuries

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the leading mode of atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic region, influencing storm tracks and creating a dipole pattern of precipitation from north to south across Western Europe. This distinct spatial distribution of precipitation provides a framework that can be potentially used to identify and reconstruct patterns of past NAO-forced climate variability. In this study we use tree-ring width series from Western Europe, in conjunction with principal components analysis and advanced spectral methods, to prospect for quasi-periodic climate signals that are forced by the NAO. We identify a robust 25-yr anti-phased synchronization in climate variability between Scandinavia and the Mediterranean during the 17th–20th centuries. The amplitude of the 25-yr beat displays a long-term modulation in northern and southern Europe, with minimum amplitude during the late Maunder Minimum. This amplitude minimum coincides with a maximum in Δ¹⁴C, suggesting a potential solar or oceanic influence on the intensity of the 25-yr band of quasi-periodic variability.     

Longitudinal variation of radial growth at Alaska's northern treeline—recent changes and possible scenarios for the 21st century

The northern treeline is generally limited by available warmth. However, in recent years, more and more studies have identified drought stress as an additional limiting factor for tree growth in northern boreal forests and at treelines. Three growth responses to warming have been identified: increase in growth, decrease in growth, and nonsignificant correlation of tree growth with climate. Here we investigate the effect of drought stress on radial growth of white spruce at northern treelines along a longitudinal gradient spanning the entire Brooks Range in Alaska. We systematically sampled 687 white spruce at seven treeline sites. Where possible, we sampled three site types at a given site: high-density forest, low-density forest, and floodplain forest. We investigated the relationship of site and site type to tree growth responses. In the western part of our study area, we found very high numbers of trees responding with increase in growth to recent warming; while in the eastern part, trees responding with decrease in growth to recent warming are predominant. Within a given site, more trees reacting positively to warming grow on site types characterized by low tree density. These patterns coincide with precipitation decreases from west to east and local water availability gradients, therefore pointing to drought stress as the controlling factor for the distribution of trees responding with increase or decrease in growth to recent warming. Compared to 20th century climate, we project a 25–50% basal area (BA) increase in the western region for the 21st century due to climate warming as projected by five general circulation models, 4–11% in the central region and decreases (+1 to −11%) in the eastern region. The overall net change in projected 21st century BA increase at each site seems to be controlled by the relative proportion of responder groups. If these are similar, differences in the magnitude of increase versus decrease in growth control BA projections for that site. This study highlights the importance of regional-scale investigations of biosphere–climate interactions, since our results indicate a substantial gain in aboveground biomass as a result of future warming only in the western regions; while in the eastern regions, climate warming will decrease overall wood production and therefore carbon uptake potential.     

Solar Activity in the Past: From Different Proxies to Combined Reconstruction

Using proxy series that includes ancient observations of sunspots and auroras, concentrations of cosmogenic isotopes ¹⁴C and ¹⁰Be, we reconstruct sunspot activity level since 850 AD to the present. As a main reference index of solar activity we use the Wolf sunspot numbers, which, as we demonstrate, reflect true levels of the activity in the 18th and 19th centuries better than the Group sunspot numbers. We construct a set of linear and nonlinear inductive models, which are in a good agreement with each other and reproduce the known global solar activity extrema. According to our results, amplitudes of the global maxima are in intermediate positions in respect to estimations of other authors. It follows from our reconstructions that the global maximum of the 20th century is not much higher, if at all, than others.     

Paleogeographic and paleotopographic evolution of the Swiss and Eastern Alps since the Oligocene

The Alps are representing the most prominent topographic feature of central Europe in the last 30 Million years. Integration of sediment budget and thermochronological data show that crustal blocks within the Swiss and Eastern Alps experienced differential erosion and uplift, with eastward decreasing rates. Since 30 Ma, in the course of collision and slab breakoff, the Swiss and western Eastern Alps were uplifted and formed a mountain range. Moderate erosion rates stabilized  2 Myr later after adaption to the new base level. Between 28 Ma and 5 Ma, erosion rates shifted above and below different regional mean levels. These shifts of erosion rates were governed by changes of the tectonic setting. Moderate temporary drops of erosion rates and lowering of topography occurred at  21 Ma and  15 Ma in the course of lateral extension. Temporary rises occurred between 24 and 22 Ma during thrust loading and between 18 and 16 Ma during axial updoming of core complexes. By 5 Ma, a sustainable strong increase of erosion rates occurred in the Swiss and Western Alps. A much weaker increase is detected in the Eastern Alps somewhat later, which makes a tectonic trigger, probably a 2nd slab breakoff, more reasonable than a climatic trigger. However, this controversial 5-Ma event is superimposed by accelerated erosion after 2.7 Ma, governed by the onset of cyclic glaciations. Effective valley incision and sediment evacuation by glacial erosion caused isostatic compensation and pronounced young uplift of the Alps.The post-Eocene paleotopographic evolution of key areas is indirectly assessed on the base of erosion rates. Spatial change of paleotopography of the Alps and central Europe is estimated and illustrated in 3 paleogeographic maps.     

Increased aridity in the Mediterranean region under greenhouse gas forcing estimated from high resolution simulations with a regional climate model

We use three measures of aridity, the Köppen climate classification, the UNEP aridity index and the Budyko dryness index, to estimate the possible effects of late 21st century climate change on the Mediterranean region under increased greenhouse gas concentrations (A2 and B2 IPCC emission scenarios) as simulated with a high resolution (20 km grid interval) regional climate model (the ICTP RegCM). A basic validation of the reference simulation along with a brief discussion of the surface climate changes for the A2 and B2 scenarios is also provided. Analysis of the changes in all three aridity measures indicates that by the end of the 21st century the Mediterranean region might experience a substantial increase in the northward extension of dry and arid lands, particularly in the central and southern portions of the Iberian, Italian, Hellenic and Turkish peninsulas and in areas of southeastern Europe (e.g. Romania and Bulgaria), the Middle East, northern Africa and major Islands (Corsica, Sardinia and Sicily). Most Ice-Cap areas of the Alps are also projected to disappear. These effects are due to a large warming and pronounced decrease in precipitation, especially during the spring and summer seasons. In addition, fine scale topography and coastline features affect the aridity change signal. We identify the southern Mediterranean as a region particularly vulnerable to water stress and desertification processes under climate change conditions.     

On the Reliability of the de la rue Sunspot Area Measurements

In the 19th century De la Rue, Stewart, and Loewy carried out a compilation of drawings and photographs of the solar sunspots in the period 1832–1868. From these drawings and photographs, they determined fortnightly values of the sunspot areas. In this work, monthly values of the sunspot areas for the period 1832–1868 are calculated and the reliability of these data in terms of the solar activity indices is discussed.     

Auroral Evidence for Early High Solar Activities

This paper describes four aurora displays in south Arabia (Yemen), around latitude 16N, during the 9th, 13th, 14th, and 15th centuries. The first event is considered to be the earliest Arabian recorded event of aurora. The second and third events confirmed the case of strong solar activity during the end of the 12th century and mid 15th century, respectively. The fourth event was around solar maximum activity in 1449 ad. So, these records could be considered as proxies for intense geomagnetic solar storms, during early solar activities.     

Dependence of stratospheric temperature on the 11-year solar activity cycle?

An investigation has been undertaken as to whether the 11-year activity cycle of the Sun can affect the temperature of the stratosphere at heights between 11 km (tropopause) and 36 km. An extended, and more sophisticated analysis of diurnal temperature data, available from radio-sonde measurements made at Berlin during the period 1958–1982, revealed, in contrast to an earlier result, that during both the summer and autumn seasons, when the radiative balance is dominant in determining the temperature profiles, and also during the winter and spring, when warming and cooling effects are present respectively, no clear dependence on the solar cycle was found to exist. Furthermore warming effects observed in winter show no dependence on solar activity.