From ACH tomographic models to absolute velocity models

The ACH method, a widely used tomographic inverse method, is characterized by the use of relative residuals in order to avoid possible biases coming from outside the target volume. The ACH method thus does not really retrieve the 3-D structure of the target volume, but instead leads to velocity contrasts relative to the layer average of the velocity, this average value remaining unknown ( Aki et al. 1977 ). Two artefacts derive from this particularity: (1) velocity contrasts are known only in the horizontal direction and it is not possible, in a strict mathematical sense, to estimate the contrasts in the vertical direction with ACH alone; (2) negative anomalies are often interpreted as low velocities, whereas negative anomalies may correspond to high velocities if the average value of the corresponding layer is sufficiently high. The converse is true of positive anomalies. We show with synthetic data how these artefacts can affect the interpretation of tomographic images. We propose to correct the artefacts by reintroducing the 1-D regional average model, and show in synthetic experiments how effective this correction can be.
  The application of this procedure to data recorded in the Kunlun region shows that the retrieval of the absolute values of the 3-D velocity model is helpful for interpreting the tomographic images and better defining which features are anomalous.     

Asperity models and characteristic earthquakes

Summary. An asperity model is presented, including the effects of coupled elementary faults. This coupling is introduced by way of percolation theory. We postulate that the elementary faults have a typical size, whose dimensions are of order 0.3–0.4 km, and two kinds of characteristic earthquakes are obtained, one in the low magnitude range involving the rupture of a single elementary fault, and one in the high magnitude range involving a percolated cluster of faultlets, whose dimensions are proportional to the total fault. The magnitude–frequency relation of this model is constructed and the Gutenberg–Richter relation is obtained with a b value of 1 in the range of intermediate earthquakes. A relative enhancement in the probability of occurrence of large earthquakes is also observed. This effect is associated with 'characteristic earthquakes', whose magnitudes are related to the size of the active fault. Possible premonitors are discussed.     

Diffraction phenomena in seismic models

Summary. Refraction seismic profiles in the Alpine area occasionally show seismic 'shadows' which cannot be explained by a horizontal low-velocity channel. An example is demonstrated where the low P -velocity zone (Flysch) dips below a wedge of high P -velocity (the Calcareous Alps) which is a typical Alpine structure. This feature has been studied by means of a seismic model experiment. The corner of the wedge works as a source of diffracted P -, S - and Rayleigh-waves, when met by seismic waves. The diffracted waves can be distinguished from conventional waves by their amplitude–distance relation when the extinction coefficient is well known by an independent experiment.     

Migration theories and behavioural models

"This review presents a probabilistic formulation of the decision making process, leading to a rigorous treatment of migration behaviour for projection purposes....Aggregate-level models may be applied to migration flows for which the objectively measured characteristics of areas of department and destination act as subjectively measured characteristics and stimuli....Individual-level models use event history methods of analysis to introduce a great variety of characteristics of the subject on the decision to move. They lead to projections using microsimulation models. A further step is taken in integrating macro- and microbehavioural models. The use of aggregate and individual characteristics simultaneously leads to more efficient and sophisticated projection models: the factors affecting behaviour at the micro-level cannot be inferred from aggregate studies and conversely."     

Pairing paleolimnological inference models with mechanistic water column models enhances assessment of lake water quality

Reconciliation of paleolimnology inference models with hindcasts from mechanistic water column models aided the reconstruction of past relationships for total phosphorus/dissolved oxygen and acid neutralizing capacity/pH in highly polluted lake ecosystems in New York State. Pre-disturbance Onondaga Lake, Syracuse, NY, was shown to have experienced seasonal hypolimnetic anoxia even under oligotrophic (<10 ug l^?1) phosphorus levels. In the Adirondack Mountains of New York State the paired modeling confirmed that, while many lakes have the potential to eventually recover from acidification by atmospheric deposition, approximately 30% likely experienced naturally acidic conditions (pH < 6) prior to increases in industrial emissions. Comparison between the model results illuminated areas of individual model inadequacy, improved understanding of lake ecology, and increased confidence in the ability of predictive water column models to accurately develop restoration scenarios representing improved conditions. The work presented here is the first such comparison modeling for total phosphorus, dissolved oxygen, and acid neutralizing capacity. The technique remains to be more widely applied geographically and extended to less heavily stressed lake systems. Because a fossil inference and mechanistic hindcast should independently lead to similar results, comparison modeling is a potentially powerful tool for examining past interactions between ecosystem structure and ecosystem functioning.     

离散选择模型研究进展

本文从离散选择模型(discrete choice model, DCM)体系的一般原理和应用价值出发,总结了各经典模型的基本理论和典型应用,并概括了近来年一些重要的研究新动向。多项Logit模型(multinomial logit model, MNL)是离散选择模型体系的基础,具有简洁、可靠、易实现等优点,但也存在固有的理论缺陷,由此产生了对更加精细化模型的需求。替代的精细化模型中,嵌套Logit模型(nested logit model, NL)常用于处理备选项相关、“都不选”备选项、数据合并等问题,一般极值模型(generalized extreme value model, GEV)体系是其更一般的形式;混合Logit模型(mixed logit model, MXL)可用于解决随机偏好问题和多种相关问题,包括备选项相关、面版数据相关、随机系数相关、数据合并等,与之类似的潜在类别模型也有着广泛应用;多项Probit模型(multinomial probit model, MNP)具有极高的灵活性,但其复杂的模型设定与庞大的运算量大大制约了其应用范围。本文在研究新动向上介绍了4个重要的研究关注点：由多种经典模型形式相结合而成的复杂模型;面向RP/SP数据、定序、排序、多选等不同数据类型的适宜模型;基于各种受限理性选择策略的更为真实的模型;以及考虑选择的时空背景的模型。     

地理系统模型研究进展

地理系统是多圈层交互的复杂巨系统。地理系统模型是理解和预测不同尺度地理系统格局和过程变化最重要的研究方法。地理系统模型作为可持续发展科学决策必需的工具,是自然地理学重要的研究方向。过去几十年来,在全球变化等全球性重大环境问题和人类科学决策需求的推动下,地理系统模型虽然发展迅速,但还不足以准确地模拟和预测复杂人地耦合系统。本文分别从模型原理、框架和尺度等方面回顾与梳理了地理系统模型从单要素到多要素、从统计到过程、从静态到动态、从单点到区域和全球尺度模拟等发展历程,并总结了地理系统模型对发展人类—自然耦合系统以及模型—数据融合系统的趋势。发展中国的地理系统模型将有助于中国和全球可持续发展的科学决策。     

Additive models in mining and exploration

In this paper we present the use of additive models (AMs) for geostatistical applications. AMs are generalizations of linear regression models which hold the central place in the toolbox of applied statisticians. Generally speaking, the linear relationship between response and predictors is replaced with a general functional form. Recently such models were introduced in geostatistics. Especially, we give an approach for binary data. In this case we get generalized additive models (GAMs). Logistic regression is quite popular in medical and biological research. Using logit links also in GAMs we get so called additive logistic models. An application for geostatistical data is introduced. In a second approach we use AMs for spatial prediction and surface modelling. In both cases an advantage of multivariate data can be taken. The proposed applications can be used in the development of exploration strategies, especially in the early stage of exploration     

空间数据分析与空间模型

虽然GIS已在各个领域得到广泛应用,但它相对较弱的空间分析功能正在限制其应用的广度和深度。文中系统论述了空间数据的基本特征,GIS中空间数据分析的基本需求,空间统计分析,空间数据探索分析以及空间模型,探讨了GIS与空间模型结合的必要性,结合途径以及结合中的问题与对策。     

水文循环模拟中蒸散发估算方法综述(英文)

Actual evapotranspiration is a key process of hydrological cycle and a sole term that links land surface water balance and land surface energy balance.Evapotranspiration plays a key role in simulating hydrological effect of climate change,and a review of evapotranspiration estimation methods in hydrological models is of vital importance.This paper firstly summarizes the evapotranspiration estimation methods applied in hydrological models and then classifies them into the integrated converting methods and the classification gathering methods by their mechanism.Integrated converting methods are usually used in hydrological models and two differences exist among them:one is in the potential evaporation estimation methods,while the other in the function for defining relationship between potential evaporation and actual evapotranspiration.Due to the higher information requirements of the Penman-Monteith method and the existing data uncertainty,simplified empirical methods for calculating potential and actual evapotranspiration are widely used in hydrological models.Different evapotranspiration calculation methods are used depending on the complexity of the hydrological model,and importance and difficulty in the selection of the most suitable evapotranspiration methods is discussed.Finally,this paper points out the prospective development trends of the evapotranspiration estimating methods in hydrological modeling.     

General sky models for illuminating terrains

Sky models are quantitative representations of natural luminance of the sky under various atmospheric conditions. They have been used extensively in studies of architectural design for nearly a century, and more recently for rendering objects in the field of computer graphics. The objectives of this paper are to (1) describe sky models, (2) demonstrate how map designers can render terrain under various sky models in a typical geographic information system (GIS), (3) illustrate potential enhancements to terrain renderings using sky models, and (4) discuss how sky models, with their well-established standards from a different discipline, might contribute to a virtual geographic environment (VGE).

Current GIS hill-shading tools use the Lambertian assumption which can be related to a simple point light source at an infinite distance to render terrain. General sky models allow the map designer to choose from a gamut of sky models standardized by the International Commission on Illumination (CIE). We present a computer application that allows the map designer to select a general sky model and to use existing GIS tools to illuminate any terrain under that model. The application determines the orientations and weights of many discrete point light sources that, in the aggregate, approximate the illumination provided by the chosen sky model. We discuss specific enhancements to terrains that are shaded and shadowed with these general sky models, including additional detail of secondary landforms with soft shadows and more realistic shading contrasts. We also illustrate how non-directional illumination models result in renderings that lack the perceptual relief effect. Additionally, we argue that this process of creating hill-shaded visualizations of terrain with sky models shows parallels to other geo-simulations, and that basing such work on standards from the computer graphics industry shows potential for its use in VGE.