Precovery of near‐Earth asteroids by a citizen‐science project of the Spanish Virtual Observatory

This article describes a citizen‐science project conducted by the Spanish Virtual Observatory (SVO) to improve the orbits of near‐Earth asteroids (NEAs) using data from astronomical archives. The list of NEAs maintained at the Minor Planet Center (MPC) is checked daily to identify new objects or changes in the orbital parameters of already catalogued objects. Using NEODyS we compute the position and magnitude of these objects at the observing epochs of the 938 046 images comprising the Eigth Data Release of the Sloan Digitised Sky Survey (SDSS). If the object lies within the image bound‐aries and the magnitude is brighter than the limiting magnitude, then the associated image is visually inspected by the project's collaborators (the citizens) to confirm or discard the presence of the NEA. If confirmed, accurate coordinates and, sometimes, magnitudes are submitted to the MPC. Using this methodology, 3226 registered users have made during the first fifteen months of the project more than 167 000 measurements which have improved the orbital elements of 551 NEAs (6% of the total number of this type of asteroids). Even more remarkable is the fact that these results have been obtained at zero cost to telescope time as NEAs were serendipitously observed while the survey was being carried out. This demonstrates the enormous scientific potential hidden in astronomical archives. The great reception of the project as well as the results obtained makes it a valuable and reliable tool for improving the orbital parameters of near‐Earth asteroids. (© 2014 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Jupiter approaching asteroids and their possibilities for activity

Jupiter‐family comets (JFCs) may often, closely and/or slowly approach Jupiter. A list of their close approaches within 0.21 AU from Jupiter between 1970 and 2030 is presented to determine the typical changes in some of their orbital elements and their relation to any triggered activity. A few JFCs from the list were temporary satellites of Jupiter. There are also several JFCs which originally had asteroidal provisional designations due to their low activity at discovery. But Jupiter is also approached by asteroids. The presented list of their approaches within 0.60 AU from Jupiter between 1960 and 2040, together with their orbital changes can be compared with the list of comets. Some of the orbital changes are large enough to cause an extremely low or short‐lived activity. Usually, quick and dedicated observations by large‐aperture telescopes are missing to confirm or refute it. Currently, the most important cometary candidate among Jupiter approaching asteroids is 2004 FY140. (© 2005 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Asteroids on Earth-like orbits and their origin

The orbit of 1991 VG and a set of other asteroids whose orbits are very similar to that of the Earth have been examined. Its origin has been speculated to be a returning spacecraft, lunar ejecta or a low-inclination Amor- or Apollo-class object. The latter is arguably the more likely source, which has been investigated here. The impact probability for these objects has been calculated, and while it is larger than that of a typical near-Earth asteroid (NEA), it is still less than 1:200 000 over the next 5000 yr. In addition, the probability of an NEA ever ending up on an Earth-like orbit has been obtained from numerical simulations and turned out to be about 1:20 000, making this a rare class of objects. The typical time spent in this state is about 10 000 yr, much less than the typical NEA lifetime of 10 Myr.     

Constraining the orbits of small solar system bodies using spectroscopic Doppler shift measurements – a preliminary study

In this short paper we examine whether the measurement of Doppler shifts in the solar light reflected off an asteroid surface may improve the accuracy of the determined orbit. Our results suggest it will be worthwhile to use high‐resolution spectrographs, of the exoplanet‐hunting type, to measure those Doppler shifts. Spectroscopic Doppler shifts might improve the accuracy of Earth‐impact predictions, help to recover “lost” near‐Earth objects, and may also significantly enhance the knowledge about dynamics of the Kuiper belt. Future high‐resolution spectrographs on the VLT and the E‐ELT may thus have an important role in studies of Solar‐System dynamics and kinematics. (© 2015 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Venus-intercepting meteoroid streams

This study is motivated by the possibility of determining the large-body meteoroid flux at the orbit of Venus. Towards this end, we attempt to estimate the times at which enhanced meteoric activity might be observed in the planet's atmosphere. While a number of meteoroid streams are identified as satisfying common Earth and Venus intercept conditions, it is not clear from the Earth-observed data if these streams contain large-body meteoroids. A subset of the Taurid Complex objects may produce fireball-rich meteor showers on Venus. A total of 11 short-period, periodic comets and 46 near-Earth asteroids approach the orbit of Venus to within 0.1 au, and these objects may have associated meteoroid streams. Comets 27P/Crommelin and 7P/Pons–Winnecke are identified as candidate parents to possible periodic meteor showers at the orbit of Venus.     

Mining the CFHT Legacy Survey for known Near Earth Asteroids

The Canada‐France‐Hawaii Legacy Survey (CFHTLS) comprising about 25 000 MegaCam images was data mined to search for serendipitous encounters of known Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs) and Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs). A total of 143 asteroids (109 NEAs and 34 PHAs) were found on 508 candidate images which were field corrected and measured carefully, and their astrometry was reported to Minor Planet Centre. Both recoveries and precoveries (apparitions before discovery) were reported, including data for 27 precovered asteroids (20 NEAs and 7 PHAs) and 116 recovered asteroids (89 NEAs and 27 PHAs). Our data prolonged arcs for 41 orbits at first or last opposition, refined 35 orbits by fitting data taken at one new opposition, recovered 6 NEAs at their second opposition and allowed us to ameliorate most orbits and their Minimal Orbital Intersection Distance (MOID), an important parameter to monitor for potential Earth impact hazard in the future (© 2011 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

How selection and weighting of astrometric observations influence the impact probability. The case of asteroid (99942) Apophis

The aim of this paper is to show that in the case of a low probability of asteroid collision with the Earth, the appropriate selection and weighting of the data are crucial for the impact investigation and for analysing the impact possibilities using extensive numerical simulations. By means of the Monte Carlo special method, a large number of 'clone' orbits have been generated. A full range of orbital elements in the six-dimensional parameter space, that is, in the entire confidence region allowed by the observational material, has been examined. On the basis of 1000 astrometric observations of (99942) Apophis, the best solutions for the geocentric encounter distance of  6.065 ± 0.081 R_⊕  (without perturbations by asteroids) or  6.064 ± 0.095 R_⊕  (including perturbations by the four largest asteroids) were derived for the close encounter with the Earth on 2029 April 13. The present uncertainties allow for special configurations ('keyholes') during this encounter that may lead to very close encounters in future approaches of Apophis. Two groups of keyholes are connected with the close encounter with the Earth in 2036 (within the minimal distance of  5.7736−5.7763 R_⊕  on 2029 April 13) and 2037 (within the minimal distance of  6.3359–6.3488 R_⊕  ). The nominal orbits for our most accurate models run almost exactly in the middle of these two impact keyhole groups. A very small keyhole for the impact in 2076 has been found between these groups at the minimal distance of 5.97347   R_⊕  . This keyhole is close to the nominal orbit. The present observations are not sufficiently accurate to eliminate definitely the possibility of impact with the Earth in 2036 and for many years after.     

Mining the ESO WFI and INT WFC archives for known Near Earth Asteroids. Mega‐Precovery software

The ESO/MPG WFI and the INT WFC wide field archives comprising 330 000 images were mined to search for serendip‐itous encounters of known Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs) and Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs). A total of 152 as‐teroids (44 PHAs and 108 other NEAs) were identified using the PRECOVERY software, their astrometry being measured on 761 images and sent to the Minor Planet Centre. Both recoveries and precoveries were reported, including prolonged orbital arcs for 18 precovered objects and 10 recoveries. We analyze all new opposition data by comparing the orbits fitted before and after including our contributions. We conclude the paper presenting “Mega‐Precovery”, a new online service focused on data mining of many instrument archives simultaneously for one or a few given asteroids. A total of 28 instrument archives have been made available for mining using this tool, adding together about 2.5 million images forming the “Mega‐Archive”     

Dynamical evolution of cometary asteroids

We present results from long-term numerical integrations of hypothetical Jupiter-family comets (JFCs) over time-scales in excess of the estimated cometary active lifetime. During inactive periods these bodies could be considered as 'cometary' near-Earth objects (NEOs) or 'cometary asteroids'. The contribution of cometary asteroids to the NEO population has important implications not only for understanding the origin of inner Solar system bodies but also for a correct assessment of the impact hazard presented to the Earth by small bodies throughout the Solar system. We investigate the transfer probabilities on to 'decoupled' subJovian orbits by both gravitational and non-gravitational mechanisms, and estimate the overall inactive cometary contribution to the NEO population. Considering gravitational mechanisms alone, more than 90 per cent of decoupled NEOs are likely to have their origin in the main asteroid belt. When non-gravitational forces are included, in a simple model, the rate of production of decoupled NEOs from JFC orbits becomes comparable to the estimated injection rate of fragments from the main belt. The Jupiter-family (non-decoupled) cometary asteroid population is estimated to be of the order of a few hundred to a few thousand bodies, depending on the assumed cometary active lifetime and the adopted source region.     

Asteroid 2002NY40 as a source of meteorite-dropping bolides

The existence of asteroidal meteoroid streams capable of producing meteorite-dropping bolides has long being invoked, but evidence is scarce. Recent modelling of previously reported associations suggests that the time-scales to keep the orbital coherence of these streams producing meteorites are too short. We present an unequivocal association between near earth object (NEO) 2002NY40 and at least one bright fireball detected over Finland in 2006 August. Another two additional fireballs recorded from Spain and Finland seem to be related, together producing a fireball-producing stream (β Aquarids). On the basis of historical data, the 2006 finding suggests the existence of a meteoroid complex capable of producing meteorites. Taking into account present time-scales for orbital decoherence, if 2002NY40 has large meteoroids associated with it, such behaviour would be the consequence of a relatively recent asteroidal fragmentation. Supporting our claim, the heliocentric orbits of two recently discovered NEOs, 2004NL8 and 2002NY40, were found to exhibit a good similarity to each other and also to the orbits of the three bolides. The fireball spectra of the two Finish bolides showed that the chemical abundances of these objects are consistent with the main elements found in chondrites. This result is consistent with the probable Low iron, Low metal (LL) chondritic mineralogy of asteroid 2002NY40. Consequently, this asteroid may be delivering LL chondrites to the Earth. Additional fireball reports found in the literature suggest that the associated β Aquarid complex may have been delivering meteorites to the Earth during, at least, the last millennium.     

On the stability of the satellites of asteroid 87 Sylvia

The triple asteroidal system (87) Sylvia is composed of a 280-km primary and two small moonlets named Romulus and Remus ( Marchis et al. 2005b ). Sylvia is located in the main asteroid belt, with semi-major axis of about 3.49 au, eccentricity of 0.08 and 11° of orbital inclination. The satellites are in nearly equatorial circular orbits around the primary, with orbital radius of about 1360 km (Romulus) and 710 km (Remus). In this work, we study the stability of the satellites Romulus and Remus. In order to identify the effects and the contribution of each perturber, we performed numerical simulations considering a set of different systems. The results from the three-body problem, Sylvia–Romulus–Remus, show no significant variation of their orbital elements. However, the inclinations of the satellites present a long-period evolution with amplitude of about 20° when the Sun is included in the system. Such amplitude is amplified to more than 50° when Jupiter is included. These evolutions are very similar for both satellites. An analysis of these results shows that Romulus and Remus are librating in a secular resonance and their longitude of the nodes are locked to each other. Further simulations show that the amplitude of oscillation of the satellites' inclination can reach higher values depending on the initial values of their longitude of pericentre. In those cases, the satellites get caught in an evection resonance with Jupiter, their eccentricities grow and they eventually collide with Sylvia. However, the orbital evolutions of the satellites became completely stable when the oblateness of Sylvia is included in the simulations. The value of Sylvia's J ₂ is about 0.17, which is very high. However, even just 0.1 per cent of this value is enough to keep the satellite's orbital elements with no significant variation.     

EURONEAR: Data mining of asteroids and Near Earth Asteroids

Besides new observations, mining old photographic plates and CCD image archives represents an opportunity to recover and secure newly discovered asteroids, also to improve the orbits of Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs), Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) and Virtual Impactors (VIs). These are the main research aims of the EURONEAR network. As stated by the IAU, the vast collection of image archives stored worldwide is still insufficiently explored, and could be mined for known NEAs and other asteroids appearing occasionally in their fields. This data mining could be eased using a server to search and classify findings based on the asteroid class and the discovery date as “precoveries” or “recoveries”. We built PRECOVERY, a public facility which uses the Virtual Observatory SkyBoT webservice of IMCCE to search for all known Solar System objects in a given observation. To datamine an entire archive, PRECOVERY requires the observing log in a standard format and outputs a database listing the sorted encounters of NEAs, PHAs, numbered and un‐numbered asteroids classified as precoveries or recoveries based on the daily updated IAU MPC database. As a first application, we considered an archive including about 13 000 photographic plates exposed between 1930 and 2005 at the Astronomical Observatory in Bucharest, Romania. Firstly, we updated the database, homogenizing dates and pointings to a common format using the JD dating system and J2000 epoch. All the asteroids observed in planned mode were recovered, proving the accuracy of PRECOVERY. Despite the large field of the plates imaging mostly 2.27° × 2.27° fields, no NEA or PHA could be encountered occasionally in the archive due to the small aperture of the 0.38m refractor insufficiently to detect objects fainter than V ∼ 15. PRECOVERY can be applied to other archives, being intended as a public facility offered to the community by the EURONEAR project. This is the first of a series of papers aimed to improve orbits of PHAs and NEAs using precovered data derived from archives of images to be data mined in collaboration with students and amateurs. In the next paper we will search the CFHT Legacy Survey, while data mining of other archives is planned for the near future (© 2009 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Benefits of an impact mission to 3200 Phaethon: nature of the extinct comet and artificial meteor shower

The asteroid 3200 Phaethon is suggested as a candidate for direct impact research. The object is considered to be an extinct comet and the parent of the Geminid meteor shower. One could say that this provides a possible argument for a space mission. Based on such a mission, this paper proposes to investigate the nature of the extinct comet and the additional interesting possibility of artificially generated meteor showers.
Dust trail theory can calculate the distribution of a bundle of trails and be used to show in which years artificial meteors would be expected. Results indicate that meteor showers will be seen on Earth about 200 yr after the event, on 2022 April 12.     

Near-Earth object velocity distributions and consequences for the Chicxulub impactor

An Öpik-based geometric algorithm is used to compute impact probabilities and velocity distributions for various near-Earth object (NEO) populations. The resulting crater size distributions for the Earth and Moon are calculated by combining these distributions with assumed NEO size distributions and a selection of crater scaling laws. This crater probability distribution indicates that the largest craters on both the Earth and the Moon are dominated by comets. However, from a calculation of the fractional probabilities of iridium deposition, and the velocity distributions at impact of each NEO population, the only realistic possibilities for the Chicxulub impactor are a short-period comet (possibly inactive) or a near-Earth asteroid. For these classes of object, sufficiently large impacts have mean intervals of 100 and 300 Myr respectively, slightly favouring the cometary hypothesis.     

An analysis of the region of the Phocaea dynamical family

In this work, I conduct a preliminary analysis of the Phocaea family region. I obtain families and clumps in the space of proper elements and proper frequencies, study the taxonomy of the asteroids for which this information is available, analyse the albedo and absolute magnitude distribution of objects in the area, obtain a preliminary estimate of the possible family age, study the cumulative size distribution and collision probabilities of asteroids in the region, the rotation rate distribution and obtain dynamical map of averaged elements and Lyapunov times for grids of objects in the area.
Among my results, I identified the first clump visible only in the frequency domain, the (6246) Komurotoru clump, obtained a higher limit for the possible age of the Phocaea family of 2.2 Byr, identified a class of Phocaea members on Mars-crossing orbits characterized by high Lyapunov times and showed that an apparently stable region on time-scales of 20 Myr near the  ν₆  secular resonance is chaotic, possibly because of the overlapping of secular resonances in the region. The Phocaea dynamical group seems to be a real S-type collisional family, formed up to 2.2 Byr ago, whose members with a large semimajor axis have been dynamically eroded by the interaction with the local web of mean-motion and secular resonances. Studying the long-term stability of orbits in the chaotic regions and the stability of family and clumps identified in this work remain challenges for future works.     

Spectroscopic investigation of near-Earth objects at Telescopio Nazionale Galileo

In this paper we present new results obtained from our spectroscopic survey of near-Earth objects (called SINEO). We show a set of 36 visible and near-infrared spectra, recorded with the 3.5-m Italian Telescopio Nazionale Galileo at La Palma (Canary Island). We discuss their taxonomic classification (resulting in 25 objects belonging to the S-complex, five to the C-complex and six to the X-complex), and their overall compositional linkage with the principal source of near-Earth objects, namely the Main Belt. Moreover, for some near-Earth objects we found good spectral fit among meteorites. In particular, we achieved an excellent fit for chondrites of different clans. Finally, we discuss the influences of space weathering among small S-type near-Earth objects.     

Creation,detection, and evolution of Jupiter Trojan families

An investigation is carried out looking at correlations between the orbital elements of collisional targets and projectiles, estimating the number of interlopers in Trojan collisional families, and at the possibility of determining the ages of the Jupiter Trojan families by orbital integration. Real Trojans are integrated and close encounters are recorded in order to evaluate collisional circumstances between Trojans. Fictitious collisional families are created and integrated for 10 MJyr (million Julian years) forward in time and back again to the time of the collision in order to check the performance of the integrator, and the behaviour of the fictitious collisional fragments. Proper elements are calculated for the detection of family clustering using the hierarchically clustering method. This method presents little difficulty finding fictitious families in the Trojan swarms even in areas with densely populated backgrounds. However, even when the background is relatively sparse in objects, several interlopers can be connected to the family at velocity differences below 100 m s^–1. On the other hand, in densely populated backgrounds the contamination of interlopers should be less than 30%. Providing gravity is the only significant force acting on the Trojans and resonance effects are weak, the shape the collision fragments create in the proper element space are preserved on the GJyr scale, and collisions can be tracked with orbital integrations for ages of at least 100 MJyr. However, the shape of artificial families does not correspond to suggested real families. This points to the need of including non‐gravitational forces such as the Yarkovsky effect in order to simulate the family evolution. As a consequence age determination by orbital integration might be severely restricted and previous investigations involving long term orbital integrations might have tobe recalculated (© 2011 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Yarkovsky origin of the unstable asteroids in the 2/1 mean motion resonance with Jupiter

The 2/1 mean motion resonance with Jupiter, intersecting the main asteroid belt at ≈3.27  au, contains a small population of objects. Numerical investigations have classified three groups within this population: asteroids residing on stable orbits (i.e. Zhongguos), those on marginally stable orbits with dynamical lifetimes of the order of 100 Myr (i.e. Griquas), and those on unstable orbits. In this paper, we reexamine the origin, evolution and survivability of objects in the 2/1 population. Using recent asteroid survey data, we have identified 100 new members since the last search, which increases the resonant population to 153. The most interesting new asteroids are those located in the theoretically predicted stable island A, which until now had been thought to be empty. We also investigate whether the population of objects residing on the unstable orbits could be resupplied by material from the edges of the 2/1 resonance by the thermal drag force known as the Yarkovsky effect (and by the YORP effect, which is related to the rotational dynamics). Using N -body simulations, we show that test particles pushed into the 2/1 resonance by the Yarkovsky effect visit the regions occupied by the unstable asteroids. We also find that our test bodies have dynamical lifetimes consistent with the integrated orbits of the unstable population. Using a semi-analytical Monte Carlo model, we compute the steady-state size distribution of magnitude   H < 14  asteroids on unstable orbits within the resonance. Our results provide a good match with the available observational data. Finally, we discuss whether some 2/1 objects may be temporarily captured Jupiter-family comets or near-Earth asteroids.     

A possible long-lived asteroid population at the equilateral Lagrangian points of Saturn

The Lagrangian equilateral points of a planetary orbit are points of equilibrium that trail at 60°, ahead (L4) or behind (L5), the trajectory of a planet. Jupiter is the only major planet in our Solar system harbouring a known population of asteroids at those locations. Here we report the existence of orbits close to the Lagrangian points of Saturn, stable at time-scales comparable to the age of the Solar system. By scaling with respect to the Trojan population we have estimated the number of objects that would populate the regions, which gives a significant figure. Moreover, mutual physical collisions over the age of the Solar system would be very rare, so the evaporation rate of this swarm arising from mutual interactions would be very low. A population of asteroids not self-collisionally evolved after their formation stage would be the first to be observed in our planetary system. Our present estimations are based on the assumption that the capture efficiency at Saturn's equilateral points is comparable with the one corresponding to Jupiter, thus our figures may be taken as upper limits. In any case, observational constraints on their number would provide fundamental clues to our understanding of the history of the outer Solar system. If they existed, the surface properties and size distribution of those objects would represent unusually valuable fossil records of our early planetary system.     

Optical and infrared observations of the Centaur 1997 CU26

Minor planet 1997 CU₂₆ is a Centaur, and is probably undergoing dynamical evolution inwards from the Kuiper Belt. We present optical and infrared ( VRIJHK ) photometry which gives mean colours of V − R =0.46±0.02, V − I =1.02±0.02, V − J =1.74±0.02, V − H =2.15±0.02 and V − K =2.25±0.02. The resulting relative reflectance spectrum lies between those of Chiron and Pholus (although closer to that of Chiron). A 1.6–2.6 μm spectrum confirms the broad absorption feature at 2.05 μm associated with water ice reported by Brown et al. 1997 CU₂₆ displays no significant light curve variation and (unlike Chiron) has no observable coma. We place an upper limit to the dust production rate of 1.5 kg s⁻¹. J -band data taken at phase angles of 1.°7 to 4.°0 give a phase parameter of G _J =0.36±0.1, and are consistent with a phase parameter of G =0.15 in the V band (a value often assigned to low-albedo objects when no other information is available) if we assume a phase reddening of 0.017 mag deg⁻¹ in the J band. We find V (1, α =4.°1) =7.022±0.02, from which we deduce, by assuming G =0.15±0.1, an absolute visual magnitude of H _V =6.64±0.04.