Near-Earth object velocity distributions and consequences for the Chicxulub impactor

An Öpik-based geometric algorithm is used to compute impact probabilities and velocity distributions for various near-Earth object (NEO) populations. The resulting crater size distributions for the Earth and Moon are calculated by combining these distributions with assumed NEO size distributions and a selection of crater scaling laws. This crater probability distribution indicates that the largest craters on both the Earth and the Moon are dominated by comets. However, from a calculation of the fractional probabilities of iridium deposition, and the velocity distributions at impact of each NEO population, the only realistic possibilities for the Chicxulub impactor are a short-period comet (possibly inactive) or a near-Earth asteroid. For these classes of object, sufficiently large impacts have mean intervals of 100 and 300 Myr respectively, slightly favouring the cometary hypothesis.     

Scientific Value of the Laser Ranging of Asteroid Icarus

The space mission of the laser ranging of asteroid Icarus is that a laser reflector and a timer are placed on the No.1566 asteroid and the laser interference ranging is conducted between the asteroid and the ground-based station for making the precise measurements of the PPN parameters γ and β, solar quadrupolar moment J₂, time rate of change ?/G of the gravitational constant and barycentric gravitational constant of the solar system objects. With the development of laser techniques, the timing accuracy of 10 ps (or 3 mm expressed by the amount of ranging) can be realized. In 2015 the asteroid Icarus will be close to the earth, which provides a better launch window for the Icarus lander. In the present article the 2003 interplanetary ephemeris frame of the PMOE is adopted to simulate the laser ranging between the ground-based station and the asteroid for 800 days from 2015 September 25 on and obtain the indeterminacies of 18 parameters, among which those of γ, β, J₂ and ?/G are respectively 7.8 × 10⁻⁸, 9.0 × 10⁻⁷, 9.8 × 10⁻¹¹ and 7.0 × 10−15yr⁻¹, with each being 1 to 3 orders higher than the available experimental accuracy. The simulated result shows that this space mission is of scientific significance to the test of the theory of relativity, determination of the fundamental parameters of solar system and test of the space-time fundamental laws.     

The outburst of the κ Cygnids in 2007: clues about the catastrophic break up of a comet to produce an Earth-crossing meteoroid stream

Using high-resolution, low-scan-rate, all-sky CCD cameras and high-level CCD video cameras, the SPanish Meteor and fireball Network (SPMN) recorded the 2007 κ Cygnid fireball outburst from several observing stations. Here, accurate trajectory, radiant and orbital data obtained for the κ Cygnid meteor are presented. The typical astrometric uncertainty is 1–2 arcmin, while velocity determination errors are of the order of 0.3–0.6 km s⁻¹, though this depends on the distance of each event to the station and its particular viewing geometry. The observed orbital differences among 1993 and 2007 outbursts support the hypothesis that the formation of this meteoroid stream is a consequence of the fragmentation of a comet nucleus. Such disruptive process proceed as a cascade, where the break up of the progenitor body leads to produce small remnants, some fully disintegrate into different clumps of particles and other remaining as dormant objects such as 2008ED69, 2001MG1 and 2004LA12 which are now observed as near-Earth asteroids. In addition to the orbital data, we present a unique spectrum of a bright  κ  Cygnid fireball revealing that the main rocky components have chondritic abundances, and estimations of the tensile strength of those fireballs that exhibited a catastrophic disruption behaviour. All this evidence of the structure and composition of the κ Cygnid meteoroids is consistent with being composed by fine-grained materials typically released from comets.     

Benefits of an impact mission to 3200 Phaethon: nature of the extinct comet and artificial meteor shower

The asteroid 3200 Phaethon is suggested as a candidate for direct impact research. The object is considered to be an extinct comet and the parent of the Geminid meteor shower. One could say that this provides a possible argument for a space mission. Based on such a mission, this paper proposes to investigate the nature of the extinct comet and the additional interesting possibility of artificially generated meteor showers.
Dust trail theory can calculate the distribution of a bundle of trails and be used to show in which years artificial meteors would be expected. Results indicate that meteor showers will be seen on Earth about 200 yr after the event, on 2022 April 12.     

How selection and weighting of astrometric observations influence the impact probability. The case of asteroid (99942) Apophis

The aim of this paper is to show that in the case of a low probability of asteroid collision with the Earth, the appropriate selection and weighting of the data are crucial for the impact investigation and for analysing the impact possibilities using extensive numerical simulations. By means of the Monte Carlo special method, a large number of 'clone' orbits have been generated. A full range of orbital elements in the six-dimensional parameter space, that is, in the entire confidence region allowed by the observational material, has been examined. On the basis of 1000 astrometric observations of (99942) Apophis, the best solutions for the geocentric encounter distance of  6.065 ± 0.081 R_⊕  (without perturbations by asteroids) or  6.064 ± 0.095 R_⊕  (including perturbations by the four largest asteroids) were derived for the close encounter with the Earth on 2029 April 13. The present uncertainties allow for special configurations ('keyholes') during this encounter that may lead to very close encounters in future approaches of Apophis. Two groups of keyholes are connected with the close encounter with the Earth in 2036 (within the minimal distance of  5.7736−5.7763 R_⊕  on 2029 April 13) and 2037 (within the minimal distance of  6.3359–6.3488 R_⊕  ). The nominal orbits for our most accurate models run almost exactly in the middle of these two impact keyhole groups. A very small keyhole for the impact in 2076 has been found between these groups at the minimal distance of 5.97347   R_⊕  . This keyhole is close to the nominal orbit. The present observations are not sufficiently accurate to eliminate definitely the possibility of impact with the Earth in 2036 and for many years after.     

The evolution of bodies orbiting in the trans-Neptunian region on to intermediate-type orbits

We investigate the dynamical evolution of 210 hypothetical massless bodies initially situated between 10 and 30 au from the Sun in order to determine the general characteristics of the evolved system. This is of particular relevance to the understanding of the origin of Edgeworth–Kuiper belt objects on scattered intermediate orbits, such as 1996 TL ₆₆, which have high eccentricity and semimajor axis but nevertheless have perihelion in the region between 30 and 50 au from the Sun.     

The resonant structure of Jupiter's Trojan asteroids – II. What happens for different configurations of the planetary system

In a previous paper, we have found that the resonance structure of the present Jupiter Trojan swarms could be split up into four different families of resonances. Here, in a first step, we generalize these families in order to describe the resonances occurring in Trojan swarms embedded in a generic planetary system. The location of these families changes under a modification of the fundamental frequencies of the planets and we show how the resonant structure would evolve during a planetary migration. We present a general method, based on the knowledge of the fundamental frequencies of the planets and on those that can be reached by the Trojans, which makes it possible to predict and localize the main events arising in the swarms during migration. In particular, we show how the size and stability of the Trojan swarms are affected by the modification of the frequencies of the planets. Finally, we use this method to study the global dynamics of the Jovian Trojan swarms when Saturn migrates outwards. Besides the two resonances found by Morbidelli et al. which could have led to the capture of the current population just after the crossing of the 2:1 orbital resonance, we also point out several sequences of chaotic events that can influence the Trojan population.     

Cometary outbursts – the post-Deep Impact outlook on collisions as possible causes

The possibility of impacts between comets belonging to the Jupiter Family and other small bodies orbiting in the main asteroid belt, and the consequences in relation to cometary activity are discussed. The probability of such events and the jumps in cometary brightness caused by impacts are examined. The results are compared with the results of the Deep Impact mission to Comet 9P/Tempel 1. The main conclusion of this paper is in agreement with previous findings, namely that an impact mechanism cannot be the main cause of the outburst activity of comets.     

The effect on the Edgeworth–Kuiper Belt of a large distant tenth planet

We investigate the orbital evolution of both real and hypothetical Edgeworth–Kuiper Objects in order to determine whether any conclusions can be drawn regarding the existence, or otherwise, of the tenth planet postulated by Murray. We find no qualitative difference in the orbital evolution, and so conclude that the hypothetical planet has been placed on an orbit at such a large heliocentric distance that no evidence for the existence, or non-existence, can be found from a study of the known Edgeworth–Kuiper Objects.     

The parent of the Quadrantid meteoroid stream

The Quadrantid meteor shower is one of the major showers that produces reliable displays every January. However, it is unique amongst the major showers in still not having its parent uniquely identified. One of the reasons for this may be because the stream, and presumably the parent, lies in a region of the Solar system where near-resonant motion with Jupiter, coupled with potential close encounters, is possible. Such a combination can lead to a rapid dynamical evolution of an orbit. In particular, it may be possible that the orbit of the parent both satisfies the condition for a close encounter and is in resonant motion, while most of the meteoroids cannot satisfy both conditions. This results in the parent evolving away from the bulk of the stream.
To date, two suggestions have been made regarding possible parents for the Quadrantid stream, these being Comet 1491 I and Comet 96P/Machholz. The argument in favour of the first named being the parent is because of the general similarity between the orbits around 1491. The argument for comet 96P/Machholz being the parent is based on the similarity in orbital evolution coupled with a similarity in orbits phase-shifted by 2000 yr. In this paper we suggest that on both counts asteroid 5496 (1973 NA) is more similar to the Quadrantids, and that even if 5496 is not the actual parent in the strict sense that meteoroids are currently being ejected, it is either likely to be a fragment of the parent or the dormant remains of the parent.